Political Science 20 - ALL NOTES
Political Science 20 - ALL NOTES Political Science 20
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Political Science 20
verified elite notetaker
Political Science 20
verified elite notetaker
verified elite notetaker
verified elite notetaker
verified elite notetaker
verified elite notetaker
Popular in Political Science
This 56 page Bundle was uploaded by AK315 on Friday January 15, 2016. The Bundle belongs to Political Science 20 at University of California - Los Angeles taught by JOHNS, L.N. in Summer 2015. Since its upload, it has received 44 views. For similar materials see World Politics in Political Science at University of California - Los Angeles.
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Chapter 1 - Historical Introductions Introductory ideas: • World politics basically looks at how people and countries of this world get along. • In the world of international relations, there is a ﬁne line between conﬂict and co-operation which is a large part of politics; trying to determine whether there is scope for conﬂict or co-operation. • Theories and Puzzles are the foundations • Paradigm - the ‘worldview underlying the theory of a particular subject’. It’s the way in which you think about the world. Analysis of world politics occurs on 3 levels: 1. International level - interactions between whole countries and governments and international institutions like IMF, WTO, WHO etc. 2. Domestic level - interactions on a much smaller level, within nations. This could be political parties like Republicans vs Democrats. It could be businesses, labor unions, educational institutions and demographic groups. 3. Transnational level - interactions between groups whose members spread borders. Religious bodies like those belonging to Islam and Christianity are massive and they spread borders. Terrorist groups like Al Qaeda and ISIS spread borders. NGO’s like Oxfam and Amnesty also are examples. No one level is better than the other. They are all interconnected. There are 3 main ‘perspectives’ we can adopt (Rational change paradigm): 1. Realist - Focused on security. Believes state is important. A nation must protect itself and gain strategic advantage. International institutions are useless. Mainly autocratic and communists. Coercion and bargaining is the way they operate. Security and military might displayed. e.g.: Russian invasion of Ukraine + North Korea (NK) nuclear testing + Iran nuclear acquisitions + Syria’s use of nuclear weapons is a threat to US 2. Liberal - Focused on economy and co-operation. More peaceful. Considers others as important, especially the people and domestic groups. Believes that wealth is an important factor. International institutions are important. Mainly democratic countries. Free trade, agreements and treaties are more common way of operating. e.g.: TPP trade agreement between 12 nations + India opening its doors to free trade + China sea dispute is about ﬁghting for oil beneath as China is world’s largest energy consumer + Syria’s economic contribution is not valuable so US should not invade. 3. Constructivist - Focused on beliefs, values and identity of ‘who we are’. May be peaceful or not, depending on the image it wants. Considers others to be important and not just state. International institutions play a part. Usually complies or rebels and cares a lot about what others think of them. They are wary. e.g.: US airstrikes to get support + China wants claim over ‘South China’ sea + Iran stops nuclear weapons as part of ‘compliance’ with international community + US is known for being a facilitator so it must intervene against Assad regime and gain recognition. Timeline of world events: • Mercantilist Era (1500’s) 1. Power = money = power = money (it’s a cycle) 2. Europe colonized countries, expanded military power, exploit local resources and set up trade/import 3. Countries like Nigeria, Cameroon etc. had their resources exploited and land stolen. 4. The Mercantilists regulated prices of goods, inﬂuenced supply & demand, set restrictions on where to buy and sell (like Tobacco and Rice in the US could only be sold to the Europeans which lowered prices for US farmers) 5. Before this period, trade was bad and there was isolation • Pax Britannica (1815-1914) 1. A very peaceful time 2. European co-operation was high and there were democracies everywhere 3. Free trade was encouraged and barriers to trade were removed • World War I (1914-1918) 1. Germany, Austria and Ottomans vs Rest 2. Hostile coups 3. Loss of life and widespread destruction • World War II (1939-1945) 1. The Axis (Germany, Italy and Japan - fascists) vs The Allies (Soviet Union, US, UK and France) 2. Huge loss of life (genocide in Germany + 25 million casualties of war) 3. Bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki 4. Axis lost eventually 5. Economic impacts and Infrastructure impacts • Cold War (1947-1991) 1. US-Russia tensions 2. Both sides had nukes so it was a deterrent 3. It was a ‘verbal’ war Historical deﬁnitions you need to know: 1. UN - A collective security organization founded in 1945 after WWII. It has 190 members and includes all recognized states. 2. Warsaw pact - A military alliance formed in 1955 to bring together the Soviet Union and its cold war allies in Eastern Europe and elsewhere. It dissolved in 1991 as the cold war ended. 3. NATO (North Atlantic Treaty organization) - A military alliance created in 1949 to bring together the US, Canada and the Western European allies forming the American bloc during the cold war. Operates on the principle that an attack on one, is an attack on all. 4. P-5 - The 5 permanent members of the UN security council; the US, UK, France, Russia and China. 5. League of nations - A collective international security organization formed after World War 1. The league was supplanted by the US after World War 2 and was dissolved in 1946. 6. Treaty of Versailles - The peace treaty between the Allies and Germany that formally ended the war on June 28, 1919. 7. Pax Britannica - A century long period of peace beginning with Napoleon’s defeat at Waterloo in 1815 up till WWI in 1914 - during which Britain’s diplomatic and economic inﬂuence contributed to peace and economic openness. Chapter 2 - Understanding Interests, Interactions and Institutions 3 key concepts: Deﬁnitions regarding actors and states: • Actors - The basic unit for analysis of international politics; they can be individuals or groups of people with common interests. • States - A central authority with the ability to make and enforce laws, rules and decisions within a speciﬁc territory. • Sovereignty - The expectation that states have legal and political supremacy or ultimate authority within their territorial boundaries. • Anarchy - The absence of a central authority with the ability to make and enforce laws that bind all actors. The diﬀerent kinds of actors: Concepts of co-operation and bargaining: • Co-operation - An interaction in which two or more actors adopt policies that results in one of the actors being better oﬀ relative to the status quo without anyone being worse oﬀ (so no one loses here). e.g.: People pay taxes to water agency to get clean water. No one is worse oﬀ, and everyone is able to co-operate and get clean water + US AND UK both co-operated and combined their military and resources to oust Hussein’s regime. They didn’t want to maintain the status quo and by removing him, they both were better oﬀ security wise + OPEC members co-ordinated to cut back supply and drive up oil prices, successfully. • Co-ordination - A type of co-operative interactive in which actors beneﬁt from all making the same choices and subsequently have no incentive not to comply. e.g.: Bi-lateral trade agreements between countries - TPP agreements for example. When these countries choose to trade, it’s a form of co- operation. No one is worse oﬀ because of Trade agreements and there is no reason for them not to comply + All cars drive on a certain side of the road, people co-operate and there is no reason for them to defect and suddenly drive on the other side of the road (Risk causing accident) Equilibrium - state in which no player has any incentive to change their behavior. • Collaboration - A type of co-operative interaction in which actors gain from working together but have incentives to not comply with any agreement. e.g.: Prisoner’s dilemma (they may not co-operate and stay silent to split the root, one of them might snitch on the other to get the entire loot for themselves) + Iran nuclear agreement. It’s a commitment problem - because while they beneﬁt from the deal, they have the incentive of not complying and continue developing their nuclear weapons. Dominant strategy - choosing the best option regardless of what the other person does. • Bargaining - An interaction in which actors must choose outcomes that makes one better oﬀ at the expense of another. It is redistributive so it’s about allocating a sum of ﬁxed value amongst the diﬀerent actors. e.g.: In 2003, US told Saddam to step down or else they would invade Iraq. If Saddam stepped down, US would bring stability ( favorable) but Saddam would lose power (unfavorable). Public goods and problems: • Public goods - Individually and socially desirable goods that are non- excludable and non-rivalrous. Non-excludable means that it is available to everyone. Non-rivalrous means that your consumption of it does not prevent others from consuming it. e.g.: Street lamps and national defense. • Collective action problems - Obstacles to co-operation that occur when actors have incentives to collaborate but each acts in anticipation that the others will pay the costs of collaboration. Problems associated with this; Under-provision and tragedy of the commons. e.g.: When people want public goods such as national security, but they assume that others will pay towards this or volunteer for the military. Here they collaborate but they think that others will cover the costs of collaboration. It’s a common problem that occurs when discussing public goods + How some nations opposed the US-invasion of Iraq simply because while they secretly wanted the regime change, they did not want to bear any military or diplomatic costs of backing the US. • Free ride - To fail to contribute towards public goods but to beneﬁt from the contributions of others. The problem with free riding is that it means that these public goods will be provided at a level much lower than what actors actually want. Facilitating co-operation: • Number of actors - it is easier to monitor and communicate with small groups. e.g.: G7 meets regularly to discuss world issues etc + limiting ozone emissions largely depends on Russia, US and Japan. • Iteration - Repeated interactions with the same partners. The idea is that co-operation becomes better when actors meet more and more often. The temptation for an actor to defect and not co-operate now will be oﬀset if it fears that in the future, the other actor will do the same (Reciprocate the punishment). In this way, iteration is used by actors to prevent each one from ‘cheating’ and to help them stay committed. They’d rather co-operate now than risk losing future co-operation. e.g.: If Germany cheats on trade agreements with US, then in future US may not trade with Germany • Linkage - The linking of co-operation on one issue to co-operation on a second issue. In iteration, not co-operating now means that the other actor would withhold future co-operation. In Linkage, not co-operating on Issue A would mean that the other actor would not co-operate on Issue B (or any other issues). e.g.: If Russia does not release US defector then US will place economic restrictions on Russian exports. Here a diplomatic issue of co-operation leads to an issue in economic co-operation. Ideas of power: • Power - The ability of actor A to make actor B do something that actor B would not otherwise do. There are 4 principle ideas here: 1. The actor with more power, has more bargaining ability and thus can expect better outcomes. 2. The reversion outcome needs to be considered. Reversion outcome is basically the outcome that happens in the event that no bargain is made (or no deal is reached). It could be the same as the status quo; so if you negotiate to buy a laptop from your friend and both disagree - then you keep your money and he keeps the laptop. It could also be worse oﬀ; if Russia and Ukraine don’t reach an economic integration deal, then Russia might attack Ukraine and start a war. 3. The bargaining power belongs with the actor that is, therefore, more satisﬁed with enduring a reversion outcome (because they can). 4. It comes from many sources; outside options, coercion, negotiation and even resolve. • Coercion - Threatening or imposing costs on other actors to make them change their behavior. Usually with military force or sanctions. e.g.: US threatened to launch airstrikes on ISIS if they did not release hostages and stop their terrorist activities. This is a form of coercion (via military force) + UN imposed sanctions on NK to try to coerce them into stopping their nuclear weapon tests. • Outside options - The alternatives to bargaining with a speciﬁc actor. The more attractive the alternative, the more easily they can walk away from the bargaining table. e.g.: The US, instead of working through the UN to resolve its Iraq dispute, found a more attractive option; going in alone with its military to invade Iraq. • Agenda setting - A ﬁrst mover advantage that helps the actor secure a more favorable bargain. It is better to choose an outcome that is not in your best interest, because then it is easier to convince the other parties to choose a more favorable option to you, because you didn’t pick selﬁshly what only you wanted. Majority rule matters heavily in these agenda setting situations, because their vote ultimately counts. Sincere/honest voting is voting for what you really want while strategic voting is voting to try and ensure you get what you want (it gets you closer to your goal). e.g.: In the Iraq war, the US exercised its agenda setting power by bringing the inspections issue before the UNSC and then starting a war against Iraq to which other countries were then forced to respond. How institutions can aﬀect co-operation: 1. Set standards of behavior - This reduces ambiguity and facilitates co- operation. e.g.: NAFTA has speciﬁc rules governing trade and investment. 2. Verifying compliance - The can obtain information on the compliance of various actors. e.g.: The IAEA inspects nuclear material facilities in over 70 countries under the treaty on Non-proliferation of Nuclear weapons + Status of embassies and diplomatic personnel allow them to collect information in another country’s territory. 3. Reduce the costs of joint decision making - institutions make it easier for actors to make decisions collectively. There is less time spent in ﬁguring out how decisions should be made, because certain rules etc. are already in place. 4. Resolve disputes - They have mechanisms for resolving disputes. e.g.: The ICJ resolves legal disputes + UN peacekeeping troops intervene when necessary (like the Rwandan Civil War) + WTO for trade disputes. Everyone country seeks to try and comply for 2 reasons: 1. The value of co-operation created by institutions outweighs the costs of bargaining. The WTO for example helps promoted favorable free trade that economically beneﬁts many nations and the US complied when accused by Costa Rica for placing restrictions on Costa Rican cotton. 2. The institutions are already in place and cheaper to use. Chapter 3 - Why there are Wars War and the various types: • War - An event involving the organized use of military force by at least two parties that satisﬁes some minimum threshold of severity. It’s a puzzle as to why states want to go to war especially since: 1. It results in a HUGE loss of life 2. There are vast economic and infrastructure costs associated with it. Data compiled shows that the % of states involved in war has been drastically reduced since 1940 and is non-existent today. e.g.: WWI & WWII were the biggest wars we have ever faced. Huge casualties on all sides of the war. • Interstate War - A war in which the main participants are the states. e.g.: Pakistan vs India wars that have been fought. • Civil War - A war in which the main participants are within the same state, such as the government and a rebel group already in place. 4. Resolve disputes - They have mechanisms for resolving disputes. e.g.: The ICJ resolves legal disputes + UN peacekeeping troops intervene when necessary (like the Rwandan Civil War) + WTO for trade disputes. Everyone country seeks to try and comply for 2 reasons: 1. The value of co-operation created by institutions outweighs the costs of bargaining. The WTO for example helps promoted favorable free trade that economically beneﬁts many nations and the US complied when accused by Costa Rica for placing restrictions on Costa Rican cotton. 2. The institutions are already in place and cheaper to use. Chapter 3 - Why there are Wars War and the various types: • War - An event involving the organized use of military force by at least two parties that satisﬁes some minimum threshold of severity. It’s a puzzle as to why states want to go to war especially since: 1. It results in a HUGE loss of life 2. There are vast economic and infrastructure costs associated with it. Data compiled shows that the % of states involved in war has been drastically reduced since 1940 and is non-existent today. e.g.: WWI & WWII were the biggest wars we have ever faced. Huge casualties on all sides of the war. • Interstate War - A war in which the main participants are the states. e.g.: Pakistan vs India wars that have been fought. • Civil War - A war in which the main participants are within the same state, such as the government and a rebel group e.g.: The American civil war (1861-1865) fought by the Union vs The Confederacy. Concepts related to bargains and inﬂuence: • Crisis bargaining - A bargaining interaction in which at least one actor threatens to use force in the event that its demands are not met. e.g.: In 2003, Bush gave Saddam Hussein 48 hours to leave the country or face an invasion. • Coercive diplomacy - The use of threats to inﬂuence the outcome of a bargaining interaction. e.g.: In 2001, Bush demanded that the Afghan government hand over Al Qaeda leaders and dismantle terrorist camps in the country. • Bargaining range - The set of deals that both parties in a bargaining interaction prefer to the reversion outcome. When the reversion outcome is war, the bargaining range is the set of deals that both sides prefer to war.One of the key ideas is that because war is costly, there is a peaceful settlement that all sides would prefer to war. It’s just tough to arrive at it. e.g.: If a territory is worth $100M and A believes it can win a war which has a cost of $20M then the Expected value is 100-20=$80M. That is how much A expects to win if it goes to war. Therefore for it to NOT go to war, any deal that gives it $80M or more is the bargaining range for it to NOT go to war. Anything else, and it A would rather wage a war with B. • Risk-return trade-oﬀ - In crisis bargaining, the trade-oﬀ between trying to get a better deal and trying to avoid war. e.g.: In the 90’s Iraq demanded that Kuwait share it’s oil supply. Kuwait had 2 choices; either it stand its ground and not yield to demand (get a better deal but faced increased risk of war) OR give in to all of Iraq’s demands (forsake the deal and not go to war). It had a risk-return trade oﬀ. Ultimately, Kuwait chose to stand its ground and subsequently in 1990 Iraq invaded Kuwait. • Compellence - An eﬀort to change the status quo through the threat of force e.g. North Korea threatens South Korean with military force if South Korea did not dismantle loudspeakers blaring anti-NK messages. • Deterrence - An eﬀort to preserve the status quo through the threat of force e.g.: Russia’s ‘dead hand’ nuclear weapon system would deter the US from launching a nuke on Russia because they would have mutually assured destruction. Problems when trying to make a deal: • Incomplete information - A situation in which parties in a strategic interaction lack information about other parties’ interests and capabilities e.g.: The Iran deal would not be successful if Iran did not allow the IAEA to monitor it’s personnel and nuclear development projects because there would be incomplete information that the EU and US would be unaware of. • Resolve - The willingness of the actor to endure costs in order to acquire some good. e.g: During a war between Vietnam and France, Leader Ho chi minh told despite heavy losses to Vietnam, France would eventually tire of the war ﬁrst because of Vietnam’s resolve. • Credibility - Believability. A credible threat is a threat that the recipient believes will be carried out. A credible commitment is a commitment or promise that the recipient believes will be honored. Credibility is hard to achieve because sometimes acting upon threats is too costly so a state might be bluﬃng. Likewise, the target of the threats might assume that a nation will not act upon it’s threat because of the said high costs. Credibility depends on brinkmanship, paying for power and audience costs. e.g.: Taliban knew that the US starting a war against it was a credible threat (based on past experience with the Soviets). • Paying for power - When states spend in order to send a ‘signal’. e.g.: Russian submarines went to the antarctic sea bed and planted a ﬂag and broadcasted photos - while there was some expenditure into the venture, it was meant to act as a signal for Russia’s ‘territory’ (Even though they had no legal rights to the land) • Brinkmanship - A strategy in which adversaries take actions that increase the risk of accidental war, with the hope that the other side will ‘blink’ or lose its nerve and make concessions. It’s basically when a nation uses threats or takes provocative actions to send a signal that it thinks the crisis is approaching ‘war’. Thomas Schelling proposed the idea that it’s a ‘slippery slope’ one that as an actor risks slipping oﬀ as they climb higher (go further and further with their provocative actions) rather than a cliﬀ edge where they can go all the way to before deciding whether or not to jump. Basically, he says that the risks are constantly increasing with each step an actor takes. e.g.: For example if 2 states; A and B were in conﬂict and A happened to send out bomber jets to ﬂy over B’s territory (without attacking it) then that would increase tensions and cause B to be more hostile and wary and possibly make B give into A’s demands. However, if the plan backﬁred, and B thought the bomber jets were actually going to attack them then it might launch missiles towards A thus starting a proper war over an ‘accident’. • Audience costs - Negative repercussions for failing to follow through on a threat or a commitment. It’s basically when you make threats in such a way that backing down later would be diﬃcult as there would be consequences.It also leads to the idea of tying hands which is when leaders willingly make threats that they know will have audience costs because then it ‘forces’ them to not back down and to do what they set out to do. It’s a way of staying determined and blunting the temptation to back down. e.g.: US were skeptical that China would intervene in Korean war because previously China made threats to ‘liberate’ Taiwan (which China did not follow through). This lead to international ‘audience costs’ for China because now the US considered their threats as ‘baseless’ + During the Cuban missile crisis, JFK told the American public of how US might go to war and that nuclear weapons may be involved, thus causing a massive scare for the public while subsequently ‘tying his hands’. • Indivisible good - A good that cannot be divided without diminishing its value. In such cases, reaching a compromise is near impossible simply because of the feature of this good. e.g.: Nuclear weapons are indivisible goods. You cannot do anything with ‘half a nuclear weapon’ + Jerusalem could not be divided due to ‘religious’ heritage. When might war be justiﬁed? • Preventive war - A war fought with the intention of preventing an opponent from becoming stronger in the future. e.g.: WWII Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor + US war on Iraq (they thought Iraq possession of so-called ‘WMDS’ made it a threat and thus attacked them) + Israel’s attack on Iraq’s ‘Osirak’ nuclear reactor. • Pre-emptive war - A war fought with the anticipation that an attack from the other side is imminent. e.g.: Six-day war 1967 involved Israel attacking Egypt with airstrikes after it found out Egyptian troops were preparing to advance on the border. There is a clear distinction between the 2 types of wars: 1. Preventive wars = anticipated threat vs Pre-emptive wars = imminent threat. 2. Preventive wars are illegal whereas Pre-emptive wars are legal (according to UN charter Article 51). This causes some states to TRY and justify/mask attacks as pre-emptive. The US department of defense claims that it utilizes pre-emptive attacks to protect national security even if they are uncertain as to the ‘time and place of the enemy’s attack’. Discussing war 3 rational explanations ◦ Incomplete information ◦ Commitment problems (as there are dynamic shifts in ideology, power etc. as well as a lack of enforcement, this is likely) ◦ Indivisibility War is more likely when ◦ The good in dispute is a source of power ◦ There would be major changes in military balance ◦ There is a serious threat to another actor’s security Reasons to be suspicious ◦ A nation believes it can share without dividing ◦ When nations claim that compromise is not possible (to try and force their hand) ◦ Side payments are possible We can make war less likely by ◦ Increase cost of war and therefore widen the bargaining range ◦ Increase transparency - countries should be as open as possible to avoid miscommunication or the opposition perceiving them to be a threat ◦ External enforcements of commitments - getting other countries AND international institutions to be involved to ensure that a country might stick to its deal. Chapter 4 - Domestic Politics and War Whose interests counts in matters of war and peace: • To suggest that interests are only segregated into the categories of states, politicians, ﬁrms etc. is a simplistic view. When considering why conﬂict occurs, we often need to consider the domestic interests within a place because it inﬂuences that country’s policy on lots of issues. There are 2 kinds of interests here; national interests vs narrow interests. National interests are those that are generally agreed upon by most people (good security, economic prosperity, major religious identity etc.) while narrow interests are held by only a small number of actors within a country like a ﬁrm, an ethnic minority or certain government individuals. e.g.: Previously US has defended Saudi Arabia as they believe the nation’s oil supply was crucial to US interests. In terms of national interests - this could be because the U.S military power runs on oil to fuel it’s machines and tanks and weaponry OR the fact that the US’s stable economy is dependent on oil to fuel cars and transport goods around the country. However, in terms of narrow interests - we could look at the American company Aramco that exploited oil ﬁelds in Saudi Arabia. The US protection enabled Aramco to continue operating and thus rake in massive proﬁts thus fueling their ‘interest’ as a ﬁrm. • Bureaucracy - The collection of organizations, including the military, the diplomatic corps, and the intelligence agencies that carry out most tasks of governance within the states e.g.: The military is a bureaucratic organization that has expertise in warfare as well as organizational discipline. The institutional features of the military make it an inﬂuential actor in a state’s policy. Whether a politician supports defense expenditure and use of force largely depends on his/her view of the military. • Interest Groups - Groups of individuals with common interests that seek to inﬂuence public policy in a manner that beneﬁts their members. The military as an ‘interest group’ is interesting because while military interests need to be taken into account for national security, a lot of evaluation must be done regarding the costs of expenditure as well as human costs and collateral damage. e.g.: For example the Armenian lobby in US politics seeks to inﬂuence US policy in support of Armenia, similar to the Israeli Lobby + Economic interest groups are like the United Fruit company that got the President to help attack Guatemala in hopes of furthering their agenda. Incentives, alliances and responses: • Rally Eﬀect - The tendency for people to become more supportive of their country's government in response to dramatic international events, such as crises or wars. The reasons for this could be; Patriotism (people’s emotions and loyalty towards their country tend to be stronger during times of crisis), Scapegoating (the leader of a nation might try to convince the public that the situation is not his/her fault, basically a blame game) and lastly they may use the crisis as a diversion from other problems they may not have focused on. e.g.: Bush’s ratings went up after 9–11 + Obama’s ratings went up after Bin Laden’s death. • Diversionary Incentive - The incentive that state leaders have to start international crises in order to rally public support at home. This ties in with the idea of Wagging the dog wherein something of secondary importance improperly takes place/control of something of primary importance. In politics, when a leader (the tail) inﬂuences the public (the dog) rather than the public inﬂuencing the leader it’s an example of wagging the dog. They can inﬂuence the public that their decision, to say, to go to war is the right one because then they can gain public support at home and also look like they’re doing something. Another idea is that of gambling for resurrection which is when leaders in bad positions take risky decisions in the hopes that it would pay oﬀ and cast them in better light. e.g.: During 1981 Israel elections, Peres the challenger was in the lead. Incumbent leader Begin took a risky decision to bomb Osirak (as he was behind in polls). Ultimately Begin ended up winning the election by one seat because of his risky decision. • Military Industrial Complex - An alliance between military leaders and the industries that beneﬁt from international conﬂict, such as arms manufacturers. e.g.: Great Britain fought South Africa Boer states 1898-1902 not because it beneﬁted the British as a whole but because having colonized those states, it enabled the rich in Britain to invest in colonized possessions such as railroads and mines etc and receive high returns. Likewise military leaders and arms manufacturers also beneﬁted. Democracy and the features: • Democratic Peace - The observation that there are few, if any clear cases of war between mature democratic states. • Democracy - A political system in which candidates compete for political oﬃce through frequent, fair elections in which a sizable portion of the adult population can vote. Democracies are generally the most peaceful and it is rare to see democracies ﬁght other democracies. The key features of democracy are; participation (voters have ability to shape and inﬂuence leaders and policies), liberal values (Freedom of speech and expression + right to protest), contestation (multiple parties can run for oﬃce) and political constraints (Divisions of power) and transparency (though this is debatable). e.g.: India is the world’s largest democracy + US prides itself on being a democracy. • Accountability -The ability to punish or reward leaders for the decisions they make, as when frequent fair elections enable voters to hold elected oﬃcials responsible for their actions by granting or withholding access to political oﬃce. Audience costs means leaders are held accountable for the actions they make such as ﬁghting/losing a war. e.g.: By lacking accountability and losing the WWI, The Russian Tsar was not only removed from oﬃce but he and his family were executed at the hands of revolutionaries. Other key ideas: Selection Eﬀects ◦ Crises are often provoked ◦ Leaders facing diﬃculty at home may be attractive targets ◦ No positive statistical evidence ◦ Some negative evidence. Why can small groups be powerful? ◦ Specialized expertise ◦ Political contributions or mobilization ◦ The fact that they are small means that they can overcome the collection action problem. Omitted variables ◦ Other factors correlated with democracy ◦ Example democracies are overwhelmingly wealthier than non- democracies ◦ The usual suspects; economic development, trade and common policy preferences All of the above is purely theoretical and research-based. There are no hard and fast rules or conclusions we can derive. ◦ Democracy and civil war 1. Low/no democracy - low likelihood of civil war because it is diﬃcult for rebel groups to mobilize. 2. Moderate/transitioning democracy - high likelihood of civil war because there is enough freedom to oranges violence but not enough to address grievances. 3. High/mature democracy - low likelihood of civil war because groups can address grievances through political institutions. Chapter 5 - International Institutions and War All about power • Balance of Power - A situation in which the military capabilities of two states or group of states are roughly equal. Alliances are usually formed to ensure the balance of power. e.g. France and Russia formed an alliance in 1894 to counter the increasing power of Germany. • Bandwagoning - A strategy in which states join forces with the stronger side in a conﬂict. This is the ﬁrst exception to the balance of power theory, so instead of balancing out the conﬂict by joining the weak side, they join the stronger side. e.g. When the Soviet Union allied with Nazi Germany against Poland. A second exception to the balance of power theory is when state choose allies on the basis of shared cultural or religious identity. e.g. Saudi Arabia in its war against Egypt in 1957 chose to ally with Arab monarchies such as Jordan and Iraq, rather than the more powerful Israel, which is predominantly Jewish. Final exception to Balance of power act is that some states aren’t seen as a threat and therefore their growing power goes unchecked. e.g. Not many see the U.S.A as a threat and therefore there are no alliances formed to balance its power. Alliances and credibility • Alliances - Institutions that help their members cooperate militarily in the event of a war. e.g.: Allied Powers during WWII- United States, Britain, France, Soviet Union + Allied powers during WWI (Germany, Austria-Hungary, Italy) vs Triple Entente (Britain, Soviet Union, France) Alliances can be either defensive or oﬀensive. Defensive alliances are those alliances in which states pledge to defend each other in the event that either is attacked whereas an oﬀensive alliance is an agreement by which states pledge to join each other in attacking a third state. e.g. Molotov-Ribbentrop pact between the Soviet Union and Germany prior to WWII. It spelled out nature of German-Soviet cooperation and also how the spoils of conquest would be divided. Alliances often struggle with the problem of credibility. One cannot know for sure whether alliances will hold up when it matters. For example: Germany broke the Molotov-Ribbentrop alliance when it invaded Poland for itself. Alliances overcome credibility problems by 1. Increasing the beneﬁts of ﬁghting and increasing the costs of not ﬁghting (making it diﬃcult for it’s allies to abandon them) 2. Holding joint military exercises and stationing troops in respective ally territories. For example, NATO appoints a Supreme Allied Commander, Europe for instance, who is responsible for all troops under the organizations authority. 3. Public signing ceremonies of alliances also increase the costs of backing down. Alliances are not always Ironclad because it may beneﬁt one member more than the others. e.g. US is reluctant to form an Ironclad agreement with Taiwan, which is considered by China to be a renegade province. Taiwan may feel more conﬁdent declaring independence if it feels the United States has its back. Success of an alliance depends on 1. The strength of the common interests that brought the allies together. 2. The ability of the alliance to alter the members’ preferences so that in the event of war, ﬁghting is preferable to abandonment. 3. The eﬀectiveness of the alliance in convincing the adversary of this fact, and 4. The ability of the partners to limit the risk of entrapment. Why the cold war alliance was successful 1. System was dominated by two superpowers- US and Soviet Union. Less scope for miscalculation and fewer key actors . 2. Possible loss of allies didn’t aﬀect the superpowers all that much. Ex: When France left NATO’s joint military command in 1966 or Yugoslavia’s defection from the Soviet Camp in 1948. 3. US stationing of troops in West Europe upheld its commitment to protect these states against Soviet expansion. Key international organizations • North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) - An alliance formed in 1949 among the United States, Canada and most of the states of Western Europe in response to the threat posed by the Soviet Union. The alliance requires the members to consider an attack on any one of them as an attack on all of them. After the cold war, NATO has transformed into a collective security organization and conducts peacekeeping missions such as in Libya in 2011 or Kosovo in 2006. e.g. Canada, US, France, UK, Belgium, Norway etc are members. • Warsaw Pact - A military alliance formed in 1955 to bring the Soviet Union and its Cold War allies in Eastern Europe and elsewhere. It dissolved on March 31, 1991 as the Cold War ended. e.g. Members were USSR, Hungary, Poland, Albania, Romania, Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria, East Germany. • League of Nations - A collective security organization founded in 1919 after World War I. The league ended in 1946 and was replaced with the United Nations. • United Nations (UN) - A collective security organization formed in 1945 after WWII. With over 190 members, the UN includes all recognized states. The concept of collective security organizations • Collective Security Organizations - Broad based institutions that promote peace and security among their members. The job of collective organizations is solve disputes peacefully and to ensure that changes to the status quo happen peacefully. e.g. League of Nations + UN Disputes can be anything ranging from a land dispute to acts of terror and even genocide. • Genocide - Intentional and systematic killing aimed at eliminating an identiﬁable group of people, such as an ethnic or religious group. e.g. 1994 Rwandan genocide that resulted in deaths of Tutsis (killed by Hutu Majority) + Bosnian Genocide Diﬀerences between CSO and Alliances are Collective organizations discourage war because 1. Combined weight of the entire International community means that the defeat of the challenger is virtually certain. 2. Resolves commitment problem by providing third party enforcers. Ex2: UN peacekeepers patrol borders between Israel and Lebanon. 3. Peacekeeping missions also prevent further conﬂict from arising. Ex: UN inserted 15,000 peacekeepers in Liberia to facilitate disarmament and demobilization. Problems with Collective Organizations 1. Organizations are wholly dependent on their members to provide troops, funds and military equipment for any operation. 2. Free rider problem: UN peacekeeping missions are often underfunded and undermined because of free riding. Member states expect other states to bear the costs of missions. 3. Joint decision making can also be problematic. Determining whether a given act mandates an International response is complicated. States often have opposing interests. Collective security organizations are most likely to succeed when two conditions are met 1. The powerful member states that are central to their decision making process must all agree on the desirability of collective action 2. At least some members must value the collective good highly enough that they are willing to pay the costs in lives and money to ensure that the good is provided. There have been cases where the major powers disagree with resolutions. e.g. In the case of Tibet, UN action against China would have been blocked by its ally, Soviet Union + China has resisted eﬀorts by the UN to impose economic sanctions on the government of Sudan for its genocide. Discussing the UN • Security Council - The main governing body of the United Nations, which has the authority to identify threats to international peace and security and to prescribe the organizations response, including military and/or economic sanctions. • Permanent Five (P5) - The ﬁve permanent members of the UN Security Council: The United States, Britain, France, Russia and China. • Veto power - The ability to prevent the passage of a measure through a unilateral act, such as a single negative vote. • Humanitarian interventions - Interventions designed to relieve humanitarian crises stemming from civil conﬂicts or large scale human rights abuses, including genocide. • Peace-enforcement operation - A military operation in which force is use to make/ or enforce peace among warring parties that have not agreed to end their ﬁghting. e.g. UN eﬀorts in Korean War and Persian Gulf War as well as 2011 NATO intervention in Libya. • Peacekeeping operation - An operation in which troops and observers are deployed to monitor a ceaseﬁre or peace agreement. e.g. Peacekeeping mission on Golan Heights between Israel and Syria. Importance of UN 1. In peacekeeping missions. Impartiality helps in mediating conﬂicts. 2. UN backing can help countries both ﬁnancially and militarily. Eg: US in Persian Gulf War. US had far less troops when it came to war with Iraq in 2003. 3. Joint decision making helps keep the peace. e.g. The UN has been widely credited with being successful in post- conﬂict re-construction.In El Salvador, a UN peacekeeping operation played an important role in rebuilding the country and ensuring demobilization of warring factions and implementing political reforms. Also trained the new civilian police force and redistributed land. Criticism of the UN 1. There have been certain cases where the UN was inactive in responding to international tragedies. For instance, the UN barely took action during the genocides in Darfur (Sudan), Rwanda (75% of Tutsi’s wiped out) and Bosnia (War broke out between Bosnians of diﬀerent ethnic groups resulting in 300K killed and 2 million refugees displaced) 2. Member nations may be reluctant if they face heavy costs and thus they don’t want to take the risk to stop aggression or end humanitarian crises. 3. Rivalry between states also impedes the UN. During the Cold War, the UN largely failed to function eﬀectively because of the rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union. The UN passed a mandate to invade South Korea when the Soviet Union was boycotting the UNSC over Taiwan taking China’s place on the Security Council. Relationship between countries on the UNSC was far better after the cold war. Optimism during the First Gulf War as states unilaterally agreed to oust Hussein from Kuwait. US received large amount of military and ﬁnancial support from states in the collective security organizations. Dag Hammarskjold: “The UN was not created to take humanity to heaven but to save it from hell" Chapter 7 - International Trade Understanding why countries trade Why countries like to trade 1. Import important resources to production that they don’t have. For example, Japan doesn’t have oil reserves and it needs oil for manufacturing various goods so it has to import from abroad for manufacturing. 2. Consumers beneﬁt from increased variety of products from abroad. Also certain imported products tend to be much cheaper. 3. Trade increases world competition so ﬁrms strive to be better and more eﬃcient so the quality of goods and services tends to increase. 4. Comparative advantage allows countries to specialize which means they produce that good super eﬃciently at the lowest opportunity cost. 5. They beneﬁt from economies of scale (average costs of production decreases as they sell larger volumes of a good) 6. Encourages technology transfer (when countries transfer the technical knowledge and expertise of one country to their own). China transferred much of Sony’s technology when Sony set up as an MNC in China. • Comparative advantage - The ability of a country or ﬁrm to produce a particular good or service with the lowest opportunity cost. They are able to employ their resources most eﬃciently into producing a particular good/service over other goods/services that they could produce. e.g.: Between producing wheat and cars, the US has a much lower opportunity cost in producing cars and therefore it has a comparative advantage in producing cars (this means it needs to give up less to produce more cars). • Absolute advantage - The ability of a country or ﬁrm to produce more of a particular good or service than other countries or ﬁrms using the same amount of eﬀort and resources. e.g.: If Brazil produces 18m tonnes of oranges and US produces 7m tonnes of oranges, then Brazil clearly has an absolute advantage in orange production. Trade theories • Heckscher-Ohlin trade theory -The theory that a country will export goods that makes intensive use of the factors of production that is abundant in the country. We know that the key factors of production are; land, labor, capital and enterprise. e.g. A country like Indonesia is labor rich and it’s textile industry heavily depends on labor. Thus, according to this model, Indonesia will export its textiles since it heavily uses labor (factor of production). On the other hand, US airplane manufacturer Boeing (that is capital-intensive) will export their planes. Here is a general table on how factor endowment is in developed (industrial) vs developing countries • Stolper-Samuelson theorem - The theory that protection beneﬁts (enlarges) the scarce factor of production. If a country imports goods that make use of a scarce factor of production then limiting those imports will help that factor. It helps predict who will oppose and who will support protectionist measures. e.g. In the US, unskilled labor is a scarce factor of production. The US imports goods like clothing and furniture that makes use of unskilled labor. If the US used protectionist measures like tariﬀs etc. to reduce imports of clothing and furniture then it raises the price of clothing/furniture so US production of these labor-intensive products increases. As a result, there is an increased demand for unskilled labor thus helping the factor of production. Additionally, it is worth noting that the S-S theorem also shed some light on predicting how income-equality takes place in rich and poor countries. 1. In rich countries - trade helps the rich and harms the poor (decreases equality) 2. In poor countries - trade helps the poor and harms the rich (increases equality) • Ricardo-Viner (speciﬁc factors) model - A model of trade relations that emphasizes that the sector in which factors of production are employed is more important than the nature of the factor itself. The idea is that certain industries make use of speciﬁc factors of production. Textiles need labor. Steel needs capital. Agriculture needs land. These factors are ‘tied’ to these industries and can’t be changed suddenly. You can’t ask textile workers to suddenly make pizza and you can’t convert steel machinery (capital) into car manufacturing machinery. So the interests of individuals and groups depends on the sector in which they are employed. e.g. If they are workers in an industry that is labor-intensive like furniture then they know exports are needed so they will want free trade. In contrast, if they are CEO’s of the mobile industry that is capital-intensive and faces severe competition from abroad, they will want protection. • New Trade Theory 1. A trade theory developed in the 1980’s-1990’s. 2. Focuses on Intra-Industry trade. For example, Apple has software but needed to purchase microchips (hardware) from other countries so trade took place within the same (electronics) industry. 3. Focuses on intermediate goods. An intermediate good is a semi- ﬁnished good that is used for producing another ﬁnal good. Car tires are goods that are manufactured but they are ultimately used in production of cars (which is the ﬁnal product). 4. Often times, big MNC’s need to purchase raw-materials and other semi-ﬁnished goods to produce their ﬁnal product, which is why they tend to set up factories and establish themselves in diﬀerent countries (outsourcing). • New-New Trade Theory 1. Re-developed in the 2000’s 2. Most ﬁrms don’t export 3. International trade fosters competition - survival of the ﬁttest (the stronger ﬁrms survive and the weak ones don’t). Big MNC’s are able to survive and thrive but ‘mom and pop’ shops are greatly harmed. 4. Variation between ﬁrms and industries in terms of % of goods being produced, % being exported and things like wages being paid etc. Barriers to trade • Protectionism - The imposition of barriers to restrict imports. Commonly used methods include tariﬀs, quantitative restrictions (quotas), and other non-tariﬀ barriers. • Trade barrier - Any government limitation on the international exchange of goods. e.g Examples include tariﬀs, quantitative restrictions (quotas), import licenses, requirements that governments can only buy domestically produced goods, and health and safety standards that discriminate against foreign goods. • Tariﬀ - A tax imposed on imports; this raises the domestic price of the imported good and may be applied for the purpose of protecting domestic producers from foreign competition. e.g. US imposed tariﬀs on Mexican sugar + Mexico imposed tariﬀs on steel from Spain/India. • Quantitative restrictions (quotas) - Quantitative limits placed on the the import of particular goods. e.g. Japan proposed an import quota on US rice. • Non-tariﬀ barriers to trade - Obstacles to imports other than tariﬀs (trade taxes). Examples include restrictions on the number of products that can be imported (quantitative restriction, or quotas); regulations that favor domestic over imported products and other measures that discriminate against foreign goods or services. e.g. Japan voluntarily restrained themselves from importing automobiles to the US. • Reciprocity - In international trade relations, a mutual agreement to lower tariﬀs and other barriers to trade. It involves an implicit or explicit arrangement for one government to exchange trade policy concessions with another. • Most favored nation (MFN) status - A status established by most modern trade agreements guaranteeing that the signatories will extend to each other any favorable trading terms oﬀered in agreements with third parties. Basically if one member beneﬁts, all of the others should also have that beneﬁt. International institutions and trade • General Agreement on Tariﬀs and Trade (GATT) - In international institution created in 1948 in which members countries committed to reduce barriers to trade and to provide similar trading conditions to all other members. In 1995, the GATT was replaced by the World Trade Organization (WTO). Informal dispute settlement, regular updates through rounds of negotiation. • World Trade Organization (WTO) - An institution created in 1995 to succeed the GATT and to govern international trade relations. The WTO encourages & polices the multilateral reductions of barriers to trade, and it oversees the resolution of trade disputes. Export-Import Bank 1. It’s the US federal export credit agency. If foreign companies want to buy US company exports but don’t have the cash/ﬁnances to do so, then the US company asks Ex-Im bank to provide loans, subsidies and ﬁnancial assistance to these foreign companies so that they can buy US exports. Basically it’s like lending cash to others to encourage US exports. 2. Where does this money come from ? It comes from the government (Taxpayer’s money). 3. Arguments for; it creates jobs (1.3 million), it gives assistance to those in need (90% small businesses), other countries like China shell out billions to support their industries too 4. Arguments against; it mainly serves to support big business (Boeing and major ﬁrms received $96 billion), jobs created replace jobs lost in unsubsidized industries, re-directs economic activity rather than creating economic activity ($1 billion in federal loans = - $1.32 billion in private ﬁnancial activity), only accounts for 2% of US’s 18 trillion $ economy. Chapter 8 - International Financial Relations Types of overseas investments Investing overseas can be categorized into 2 broad categories; portfolio investments and direct investments. • Portfolio investment - Investment in a foreign country via the purchase of stocks (equities), bonds, or other ﬁnancial instruments. Portfolio investors do not have any role in managing how/when the investment is utilized. If I’m a foreign stock investor and I give loans to a UK-based start-up, then the UK startup will decide how and when to use this loan for their business. As a foreign investor, I don’t have any say in how the money is to be used. However, once the UK startup starts making money, they will have to re-pay their loan to me (with interest). So I’m the creditor and UK startup is the debtor. Portfolio investors only care about the rate of return on their investment (as is the case with loans, stocks and bonds). e.g. George Soros, the Hungarian investor, purchases the stocks of many American companies. He owns ‘part’ of these companies and is therefore entitled to receive ‘dividends’ (payments made to people who buy stocks). • Sovereign lending - Loans from private ﬁnancial institutions/individuals in one country to sovereign governments in other countries. It’s very common amongst developing countries (like Brazil, India, Indonesia etc.). It could be when a foreign individuals/ﬁrms either loan to or buy bonds from governments or government-controlled/owned ﬁrms. e.g. Foreign investors scrambled to purchase Indian government-issued bonds in 2015. • Foreign direct investment (FDI) - Investment in a foreign country through the acquisition (ownership) and control of facilities in that country. Direct investors are able to manage their investments. If a company sets up factories in another country then it is FDI. The company controls how
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