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INTA 1110, Introduction to International Affairs - Exam 02 Notes (Fall 2015)

by: Keyes Gilmer

INTA 1110, Introduction to International Affairs - Exam 02 Notes (Fall 2015) INTA 1110

Marketplace > Georgia Institute of Technology > International Studies > INTA 1110 > INTA 1110 Introduction to International Affairs Exam 02 Notes Fall 2015
Keyes Gilmer
Georgia Tech

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Notes for Exam 2 Material with Dr. Jenna Jordan
Intro to International Relations
Dr. Jenna Jordan
Inta, international affairs, international relations, IR
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This 22 page Bundle was uploaded by Keyes Gilmer on Tuesday February 23, 2016. The Bundle belongs to INTA 1110 at Georgia Institute of Technology taught by Dr. Jenna Jordan in Fall 2015. Since its upload, it has received 36 views. For similar materials see Intro to International Relations in International Studies at Georgia Institute of Technology.

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Date Created: 02/23/16
Monday, September 28, 2015 The Interwar Period A. Impact of WWI B. Balance of Power blamed for WWI 1. Need something to replace it 2. Woodrow Wilson a) Loved democracy b) 14 Points to restructure of the world (1) Liberal issues (2) Realist issues (3) Identity issues Collective Security A. What is collective security? 1. Make aggression illegal and outlaw offensive wars 2. Deter aggression by forming a collation of all nonaggressive states 3. If deterrence failed and aggression occurred, all states would punish aggrossor B. How would decision be made about threats a) League of Nations b) About threats not balance of power Versailles Settlement A. Signed June 28, 1919 Page 1 of 3 Monday, September 28, 2015 B. Harsh peace for Germany 1. After WWI - Germany greatly weakened 2. Lost 25,000 square miles of territory 3. Army reduced to 100,000 4. No air force allowed 5. Major reparations 6. War guilt clause Success/ Failure of League A. Successes 1. Settled some minor disputes 2. Started some disarmament negotiations 3. It became a center of diplomatic negotiations 4. 1930 - some sense or progress B. Failures 1. 1931 - Japan invades Manchuria a) League does nothing 2. 1935 - Italy invades Ethiopa a) Ethiopa split in half - one to Italy, one to the League b) Gave Italy the green light for invasino —> people were outraged Outbreak of WWII A. 1920s 1. Relatively peaceful Page 2 of 3 Monday, September 28, 2015 2. Multipolar, but no strong alliances B. Early 1930’s 1. League failure 2. Hitler comes to power - 4 options: a) Accept Germany’s weakened position b) Enrichment - engage in economic growth c) Attempt to revise Treaty of Versailles d) Expansionist - more aggressive (chose this one) (1) withdrew from the League (2) withdrew from disarmament conference - blamed French lack of willingness to disarm also Page 3 of 3 WORLD WAR I Impact of WWI • Enormous cost – mostly human capital costs • Economic Costs • Destroyed centuries of wealth that had accumulated in countries • US had best economy at end • Political costs • Russian revolution and civil war • Sewed seeds of fascism in Germany • WWII became more likely bc WWI • Multipolar • Triple Entente [Britain, France, & Russia] vs. • Triple Alliance [Germany, Austria-Hungarian Empire, Italy] • Russia has great power potential, protector of Serbia • Germany has two front war problem OURBREAK OF WWI The July Crisis [June 28, 1914 – August 1, 1914] • 28 June: Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand • 5 July: German “blank check” of support for Austro Hungary • 23 July: Austro Hungary harsh ultimatum to Serbia • 25 July: Serbia rejects ultimatum • 28 July: AH declares war on Serbia (after German pressure) • 29 July: Russia partial mobilization in South against AH • 30 July: Russia and AH general mobilization • 31 July: German ultimatum to Russia to stop mobilization • 1 August: Germany declares war Monday, October 19, 2015 Terrorism Root Causes A. Structural Explanations 1. Grievances 2. Political Repression 3. Political Inequality 4. Poverty B. Democracy C. Religion D. Decision to engage in violence 1. Enabling environment E. State Weakness II. Coercion and Deterrence A. Coercion = efforts to change the behavior of states by manipulating the costs and benefits to alter state behavior 1. Two forms a) Punishment: increasing the costs and risks to civilians b) Denial: military means to prevent the target from attaining its political objectives and territorial goals 2. Credibility is key 3. Requires finding a bargain *TSQUARE SLIDE Page 1 of 4 Monday, October 19, 2015 III.The Strategic Model A. Assumptions 1. Terrorists are rational a) Possess stable and consistent politcal goals b) Compare costs and benefits of all available options c) Selection option with the optimal expected utility 2. Terrorism is a calculated course of action 3. Reasonable expectation for ??? B. Challenges: 1. Max Abrahms argues there are 7 tendencies of terrorist organizations that challenge this model a) Coercive ineffectiveness b) Terrorism as first resort c) Uncompromising terrorists d) Protean political platforms e) Anonymous attacks f) Terrorist fratricide g) Never-ending terrorism IV. Suicide Terrorism A. Robert Pape: Terrorism is a tool designed to coerce occupiers into leaving an occupied territory (national homeland) 1. Suicide attacks follows a strategic logic: to coerce a target government to change policy, to mobilize recruits, and gain financial support a) Schelling - demonstrate credibility 2. Five principles a) Suicide terrorism is strategic Page 2 of 4 Monday, October 19, 2015 b) Designed to coerce modern democracies to make significant concessions to national self-determination c) Terrorists have learned that it pays d) Moderate suicide terrorism has led to moderate concession e) Containments 3. Magnifies the coercive effects of punishment V. How Terrorism Ends? A. Catching or killing leaders B. Crushing terrorism with force: brute force Achieving the strategic objective C. D. Moving toward a legitimate political process E. Implosion and loss of popular support F. Moving to other malignant forms VI. Organizational Resilience A. Bureaucracy 1. Will they survive if leader is killed? B. Communal Support 1. Societal tolerance for violence C. Al Qaeda 1. Older 2. Religious 3. Large 4. Decapitation is not an effective strategy D. Effective Counterterrorism policies Group falls apart 1. 2. Carries out less attacks/ less lethal attacks Page 3 of 4 Monday, October 19, 2015 3. Undermines public support 4. Pakistan is where the most drone strikes occur, along with Yemen Page 4 of 4 Monday, September 28, 2015 Causes of War Realist Explanations A. Rise of German Power 1. By 1913 German power exceeded GB by 40% 2. Power Conversion capability B. Multipolarity 1. Dangerous - many conflict dyads 2. Balancing - states forming tight, inflexible alliances 3. Buck-passing C. Rigid Alliances and Preemptive War 1. Alliances too rigid 2. German Preemptive war 3. Bipolarity of alliances Liberal Explanations A. Failure of diplomacy - Kaiser Wilhelm and Bismarck 1. Bismarck’s secrecy 2. Wilhelm’s blunders B. Misperceptions and mobilization. Why did war break out in 1914 and not 1912 or 1913? It was a tragic mistake - no one really wanted it 1. German misperceptions a) thought Britain would remain neutral in 1914 and that conflict would stay localized b) did not expect Russia to go to war 2. Quick mobilization plans - automatic escalation to war Page 1 of 2 Monday, September 28, 2015 3. Breakdown of civilian institutions Identity Explanations A. Nationalism 1. Militant Nationalism a) Cult of the Offensive 2. Liberal Nationalism 3. Socialist Nationalism 4. Social Darwinism - hyper-nationalism Why Study the Second World War? A. Most destructive war ever 1. 40-50 million 2. Truly global 3. Mass murder of civilians 4. Atomic bombing of Japan B. Allies occupied Germany and Japan C. Set the stage for 2nd half of 29th Century Page 2 of 2 Wednesday, October 21, 2015 The Iraq War Theoretical Lenses A. Realist Perspective: war on terrorism B. Identity Perspective: way to spread democracy C. Liberal Perspective: diplomatic engagement’s role 1. Even before 9/11 there were signs that the US would not respect international institutions 2. Congress never ratifies Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty 3. Rejected Kyoto protocol 4. Never joins ICC 5. Should have led the US to look for allies a) European allies announced attack against US was attack against all of NATO b) US refuses multilateral help - a blow to collective security D. Structural Perspective: you are with or without us E. Domestic Perspective: looks at the nation building process 9/18: Bush signs authorization for use of military force, giving president power to choose who to target (compromise between Congress who wanted to declare war on something specific and Bush admin. who wanted to declare war on terror, axis of evil I. Afghanistan A. US had support from NATO B. To dismantle Al Qaeda and remove Taliban from power C. Launched Operation Enduring Freedom on October 7, 2001 D. NATO support for security and reconstruction in Kabul and in Afghanistan as a whole after 2006 Page 1 of 4 Wednesday, October 21, 2015 E. US defined terrorism to include not only terrorist organizations but also state- sponsors of terrorism who want to use WMD II. Widening the Conflict A. US would act alone if necessary to fight terrorism B. Bush SOU: included rogue states (Iran, Iraq, and NK, the axis of evil) C. Bush laid out preemptive doctrine III. Lead Up to Iraq War A. US claim that Iraq possessed WMD B. In 2002 UN Security council passed resolution 1441 - call for Iraq to cooperate with UN weapons inspectors C. October 2002, Bush got congressional authority to use force against Iraq D. US and British point to UN Security Council resolution 687. Dance and Russia threatened to veto any use of force E. Belief that widening war to Iraq would fuel terrorism UN Weapons inspectors needed more time F. G. Invasion of Iraq, March 2003 IV. Why? A. What was the primary argument behind US decision to invade Iraq? 1. WMD - this was basis of US argument the decision to invade Iraq 2. Preemptive war (vs. preventive war) 3. Saddam Hussein was not deterrable B. Trying to guild support for the war: 1. Colin Powell speech to the UN in 2002 a) Saddam Hussein had WMD b) Aluminum tubes - Hussien obtained some from 11 different countries (1)Essential for enriching uranium (2) Iraq claimed they were for rocket bodies Page 2 of 4 Wednesday, October 21, 2015 (3) Iraq not supposed to have them c) Later said intelligence was wrong (1) Regrets that, but also regrets that US invasion force was not larger 2. Bush’s State of the Union a) Yellowcake uranium 3. Judith Miller - NYT C. Meersheimer: US view of Hussein as reckless/ undetterable was wrong 1. Only started 2 wars in 30 years of power 2. Didn't pose threat to homeland D. Evidence 1. Saddam Hussein did not have WMD a) Iraq Survey Group - found no nuclear and other WMD agents b) 9/11 Commission concluded that unilateralism was unnecessary and called for more emphasis on multilateralism c) Main informant was not credible - Curveball 2. Iraqi link to Al Qaeda a) The link between Saddam Hussein and al Qaeda was another important part of the dialogue at this time b) Risk that al Qaeda could get WMD Linking invasion to the broader war on terror c) d) Important in creating public consensus to go to war 3. No link was found between the two a) AQ members and Iraqi officials had some contact in the mid 1990s but there were never any outcomes from those discussions b) Bombings in Africa in 1998 - no connection to Iraq c) USS Cole attack - no connection to Iraq 4. Unlikely that there would have been collaborations Page 3 of 4 Wednesday, October 21, 2015 a) Ideological opposition between Saddam and Osama bin Laden 5. How did this become widespread view? a) Many in administration wanted to overthrow Saddam E. War 1. Debate number of troops necessary 2. Looting 3. Reoncstruction problems - administration early on underemphasized the importance of reconstruction plans a) De-Baathification Awarding contracts b) c) Disbanding Iraqi Firms d) Disorganized, poor planning 4. Costs a) Lives lost b) Economic c) Civil war/ sectarian conflict Page 4 of 4 Wednesday, October 14, 2015 Nuclear Weapons I. Military Consequences A. Destructive Power that is Hard to Comprehend 1. Atomic Bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki a) Created by atomic fission 2. Hydrogen Bombs a) Created by atomic fusion 3. Largest Explosion a) 1961 USSR test of 60 megaton hydrogen bomb B. Physical Effects 1. Radiation 2. Nuclear winter 3. Assured destruction C. Real Military Impact - destruction before military victory II. Shelling - Nuclear Weapons A. Nuclear vs. Conventional Weapons 1. Differences a) Not number of people they can kill, but speed with which they can kill b) Contralization of decision c) War not in human hands d) War less military e) Targets of attacks - relationship of civilian violence to warfare B. Terms Page 1 of 3 Wednesday, October 14, 2015 1. First-Strike Capability: ability to launch an attack that destroys another state’s ability to retaliate with nuclear weapons 2. Second-Strike Capability: ability to ride out a first strike and still strike back with nuclear weapons MAD: both sides have second strike capability, i.e., neither can stop the other 3. from destroying it 4. Counterforce and counter value weapons a) Force: weapons target at enemy’s forces b) Value: weapons targeted at enemy’s civilian population 5. Tactical versus strategic nuclear weapons C. Political Effects in MAD 1. Revived concept of limited war as opposed to total war 2. Crises replaced war as moments of truth in IR 3. Deterrence not defense is now top priority of states Development of de facto regime of superpower prudence 4. 5. The nuclear taboo III. Nuclear Strategy A. Deterrence 1. General deterrence: raise costs and lower benefits of aggression by improving defensive capabilities 2. Nuclear deterrence: raise costs and lower benefits of aggression not through defense but through massive retaliatory capability B. Requirements for deterrence: 1. Some weapons must survive 2. Survival of forces must not require early firing in response to what may be a false alarm Page 2 of 3 Wednesday, October 14, 2015 3. Command and control must be reliably maintained; weapons must not be susceptible 4. Credibility depends on stakes involved IV. Nuclear Deterrence A. Does deterrence increase the prospects for peace? 1. Waltz says yes! a) Wars risk retaliation and one’s destruction b) States act with more care if costs of war are high Deterrence does more for security than conquest c) d) Certainty about relative strength makes war less likely B. Do nuclear weapons make war less likely? 1. Waltz says yes! a) Half-century of nuclear peace b) States are deterred by the prospect of suffering c) Deterrent strategies less damaging than war-fighting strategies V. Are we safer? A. Sagan says no! He challenges requirements of stable deterrence: 1. Challenges assumption that states behave rationally 2. Military biases could encourage preventive war in transitional periods 3. Military biases can hinder invulnerability of 2nd strike capablities 4. Accidents can happen B. New nuclear states - risky! Page 3 of 3 Monday, October 5, 2015 Force I. Key Issues A. Importance Anarchy means that force will remain the final arbiter in dispute resolution between states B. Effectiveness If force is really effective, then it doesn't have to actually be used C. Ways to Use Force 1. Defense 2. Deterrence 3. Coercion 4. Swaggering II. Defense A. Definition: resistance against physical attack. The deployment of military power to: 1. Ward off enemy attacks 2. Minimize damage to oneself, if attacked B. Kinds: 1. Preemptive 2. Preventive C. Aim: defeat aggression D. Success: Depends on relative power Page 1 of 3 Monday, October 5, 2015 III.Deterrence A. Definition: Discouraging the enemy from taking military action by raising the costs and lowering the benefits of aggression (maintaining the statues quo by discouraging the opponents from changing their behavior) Aim: prevent aggression B. C. Success: Depends on: 1. Rationality 2. Adversary’s motivation and power 3. Credibility IV. Coercion/ Compellence A. Definition: Threat or use of force to make adversary do something that he or she would not otherwise do (efforts to change behavior of states by manipulating the costs and benefits to alter behavior) B. Aim: reverse a policy, usually to reverse aggression C. Kinds: 1. Punishment - increasing the costs or risks to civilians 2. Denial D. Success: 1. Depends on credibility E. Coercion vs. Deterrence V. Swaggering A. Most difficult to be precise about The deployment of military power for purposes other than defense, deterrence, B. or compellence C. Objectives more diffuse: Page 2 of 3 Monday, October 5, 2015 1. Prestige 2. National Pride VI. Schelling A. Deterrence vs. Compellence B. Diplomacy vs. Force C. Brute Force vs. Coercion 1. Taking what you want vs. making someone give it to you 2. The threat of pain and damage are very powerful 3. Brute Force is only successful when actually used 4. Violence is most successful when threatened, not used D. Commitment 1. Deterrence a) Decision to take action is up to the target b) About intentions - how to communicate those intentions? Coercion 2. a) Decision to take action is up to the targeter E. Credibility 1. Sometimes it helps to be seen as irrational, not in control 2. Relinquishing control to the other side 3. Trip Wire F. Brinkmanship Page 3 of 3 Wednesday, September 30, 2015 Outbreak of WWII I. Germany a) 1934: signed non-agression pact with Poland b) 1935: renounces disarm clause of Versailles c) 1936: allies with Japan and Italy. Remilitarized Rhineland d) 1937: send forces to help Spanish fascists e) 1938: (1) Pushes idea of self-determination for Germans in Sudetenland (2) Occupies rest of Czechoslovakia (provides mountains as geographic barrier) (3) Signs pact with USSR (4) Invades Poland - start of war (5) France and Britain declare war f) 1940: (1) moves troops to Norway (2) Blitzkrieg against France (3) Defeats France, Belgium, Holland and Luxembourg. Britain driven off continent g) 1941: (1) April: invades Yugoslavia and Greece (2) June 22: invades the Soviet Union (3) By December owns most of Europe (4) December: after Pearl Harbor attack Germany declares war on the US Page 1 of 2 Wednesday, September 30, 2015 II. Causes of WWII A. Individual - First Image: 1. Hitler 2. Is this just Hitler’s war B. State level - Second Image: 1. US did not get involved for internal reasons; emboldened Hitler 2. Class conflict in Britain; emboldened Hitler 3. Myths of Empire C. System Level - Third Image a) Realist Explanation (1) Germany is the problem here (a) Balance of Power (b) Security Dilemms (2) Offensive Realism Expansionism = best way to guarantee security (a) (3) Defensive Realism (a) Growing Russia = preventive war (4) Buck-passing (5) Misperceptions Page 2 of 2


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