POSC 240 Comparative Politics Notes from Throughout Semester
POSC 240 Comparative Politics Notes from Throughout Semester POSC 240
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Nigerian Politics in Transition (234240) Nigerians overwhelmingly favor democratic government over military rule (70%) Popular frustration growing: slow pace of reform and continued corruption in politics Political Challenges and Changing Agendas Transition to democratic rule: 19851999 o Inconclusive: planned and directed from above o Military periodically made promises for democratic transition Ploy to stabilize and legitimize their governments 1999: Gen. Abubakar hands power to civilians ensures that military’s interests would be protected creating overly powerful executive o reinforces prebendalism and patronage system o Military’s rapid transition program: Produced tenuous, conflicted democratic government Daunting tasks: restoring key institutions, securing social stability, reforming the economy Collective identities (religion, ethnicity) > national allegiance Decline in appeal of military rule o Bad performances by Babangida and Abacha regime economic oversight and governance o Military=incapable of promoting economic and social progress Since 2003 elections: o Political elite more willing to use extrasystemic measures to forward interests with election rigging, corruption, and militialed violence Need creation of viable, multiethnic opposition party that’s also loyal to playing by the rules of the system o Decrease corruption: interest in exposing misconduct of the ruling party, pressures them to restrain their own behavior o Engage public to win their votes Basis of the social contract: o Elites gain privilege of power as long as they use it restrain their own power Introduction of large number of new parties since 2002: o Hurt development of viable, loyal opposition o Diluting opposition allowing PDP to govern largely unchecked Parties of the 4 Republic o Generally don’t represent any particular ethnic interest Represent interests of their leaders and clients o Ethnic associations/militias: risen to articulate ethnicbased grievances If ethnic associations captures one of the political parties/joins with the militias separatism and instability Privatization of Gov. Parastatals: o Reduce power of presidency over time No longer able to control all primary sectors of the economy More decentralized system: Local problems able to be solved within communities Enhance accountability of leaders and transparency of gov. operations Civil Society Groups o Aggregate and articulate popular interests into policy realm o Provide advocacy for their members o Must be reached through alliance by political groups in order to reflect more than elite interests and clientelist rule Foreign Pressure o Supporting civil society and democratization o W. commitment to development and democracy in Africa: limited by industrial powers’ addiction to oil Changes in economic/business sectors o Develop more sophisticated and less corrupt form of capitalist enterprise o Development of entrepreneurial, especially with middle class interests Continued problems o Overdependence on oil o Weak infrastructure and institutions o Heightened sociopolitical tensions o Irresponsible elite o Expanding mass culture of despondency and rage Nigerian Politics in Comparative Perspective A World of States 2 “worlds” of states o global political economy o within Africa Remaining secondary player in world of states o 1990s: became notorious for corruption, human rights abuses and failed governance o Rising oil prices some stature restored o Persistent corruption o Economic vulnerability Determinant of W. Africa o Substantial growth of Nigerian economy buoy economy of W. African subregion Governing the Economy 1960 independence: stronger economically than SE Asian counterparts Today: among poorest countries in the world (per capita income) o Rich endowment of resources: not enough to ensure economic development May encourage rentseeking behaviorundermines more productive activities Developing democratic stability and a capable developmental state o Developmentalist ethic and institutional structure to enforce it Set limits to corrupt behavior, constrain pursuit of shortterm personal gain at expense of national economic growth Sustainable economic development: sound economic policy required o No export diversificationstrongly affected by price fluctuations of 1 or 2 main products Stems from overreliance on primary commodity exportoriented policies started by British colonial regime The Democratic Idea African societies experienced resurgence of popular pressures for greater participation in political life/more open forms of gov. o History of authoritarian, singleparty and military rule: record of political repression, human rights abuses, inequality, deteriorating governance, failed economies Postcolonial authoritarian rule: o Contributed to economic stagnation and decline Today: democracy=greater imperative o Only system that provides mechanisms to limit abuses of power and make governments accountable Collective Identities Institutional reforms to contribute to reducing tensions and minimizing conflict o Multiethnic political parties o Decentralization o Strengthened federal system Federal character: become a form of ethnic and regional favoritism o Tool for dispensing patronage The Making of the Modern Chinese State (287310) Politics in Action: Late 2010: Nobel Peace Prize won by Liu Xiaobo (writer and polticial activist) o First from PRC to win any kind of Nobel Prize o “for his long and nonviolent struggle for fundamental human rights in China” o in prison, couldn’t attend ceremony o China: insulted because a man whom they said was a criminal was honored China remains one of the harshest dictatorships in the world Remarkable economic progress Rift between China’s authoritarian political system and its increasingly modern and globalized society Political Organization Political System Communist partystate; officially, a socialist state under the people’s democratic dictatorship Regime History Est. in 1949 after the victory of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in the Chinese civil war Administrative Structure Unitary system with 22 provinces, 5 autonomous regions, 4 centrally administrated municipalities and 2 Special Administrative Regions (Hong Kong and Macao) Executive Premier (head of gov.) and president (head of state) formally elected by legislature, but only with approval of CCP leadership; the head of the CCP (gen. secretary) is in effect the country’s chief executive, and usually serves concurrently as president of the PRC Legislature Unicameral National People’s Congress; about 3,000 delegates elected indirectly from lowerlevel people’s congresses for 5 yr terms. Largely a rubberstamp body for Communist Party policies, although in recent years has become somewhat more assertive Judiciary Nationwide system of people’s courts, which is constitutionally independent but, in fact, largely under the control of the CCOP, a Supreme People’s Court supervises the country’s judicial system and is formally responsible to the National People’s Congress, which also elects the court’s president Party System Oneparty system, although in addition to the ruling Chinese Communist Party there are 8 politically insignificant “democratic” parties Geographic Setting: 4 largest country in world (slightly smaller than US) 2 provinces, 5 autonomous regions, 4 centrally administered cities (including Beijing) and 2 Special Administrative Regions (Hong Kong and Macau) that are ruled indirectly Regions: o West: Sparsely populated Mostly mountains, deserts, and high plateaus o North: Similar to US plain states in weather and topography Wheatgrowing area: industrial heartland o South: Much warmer climate Semitropical in some places Allows yearround agriculture and intensive rice cultivation Rich in natural resources (coal and petroleum) World’s greatest potential for hydroelectric power Population of 1.3 billion (4 times greater than that of the US) o Less than 15% of its land can be used for agriculture o Precarious balance between people and the land needed to feed them o Nearly 120 cities with population greater than 1 million Beijing (capital): 19.6 million Shanghai (economic heart): 23 million o about 55% (700) million live in rural areas 1997: Hong Kong (former British colony) becomes SAR of PRC o one of world’s great commercial centers 1999: Macau (former Portuguese colony) becomes SAR of PRC o thriving casino economy SARs: great amount of autonomy from gov., except in foreign relations and defense 92% of population ethnically Chinese o 8%: more than 50 ethnic minorities most live in geopolitically sensitive border regions (Tibet) o uneasy/often hostile relationship between minority people and central gov. Critical Junctures: Traditional Chinese culture o Based on teachings of ancient philosopher Confucius (551479 BCE) o Emphasizes obedience to authority, respect for superiors/elders, responsibility of rulers to govern benevolently st 221 BCE: several small kingdoms unified by 1 emperor o foundation for empire; lasted more than 20 centuries until being overthrown in early 20 cent. extensive geographic expansion basic political structure constant National bureaucracy imperial officials appointed by the emperor only after they’d passes series of difficult exams o Tested mastery of classic teachings of Confucianism Many large internal rebellions new dynasties always kept Confucianbased imperial political system th th Late 18 /19 centuries: internal crisis and external challenges o Long spell of peace/prosperity population explosion o Population growth economic stagnation and growing poverty o Increase in official corruption in bureaucracy and exploitation of peasants by landlords and gov. Taiping Rebellion (18501864) o Massive revolt o 20 million deaths o almtht overthrew government Early 19 century: exploitation by British (increased European industrial/military development) o Britain exporting silver to China to pay for tea o To balance trade: Britain used superior military power to compel Chinese to buy opium from colony India Opium War (18391842) o Humiliating defeat by Britain o Forced to sign series of unequal treaties Opened borders to foreign merchants, missionaries and diplomats on terms of Britain/ other W. powers Lost significant pieces of territory to foreigners (Hong Kong) important sectors of economy under foreign control 19111912: Revolution o toppled ruling dynastyended 2,000 year old empire Warlords, Nationalists, and Communists: 19121949 1912: Republic of China est. by Dr. Sun Yatsen o best known revolutionarybecame president o couldn’t hold power conflict: rival military leaders (warlords) ruled large parts of country 1921: Chinese Communist Party (CCP) founded by intellectuals o advised by Soviet Union joined with Nationalists to fight warlords 1927: alliance with Nationalists ends o Chiang Kaishek (military leader, head of Nationalist Party after Sun’s death in 1925) turned against Communist partners Bloody suppression nearly wiped out CCP 1927: Chiang had unified Republic of China under personal and increasingly authoritarian rule o striking deals with remaining powerful warlords Communist Party retreated into countryside o Foundation for Mao Zedong’s rise to power/victory 20 yrs. later o rural basegain support: Mao gains leadership Late 1943: CCP surrounded by Chiang Kaishek’s army o Long March: year long 6,000 mile journey through most remote parts October 1935: Communists establish based in impoverished area in NW o Mao consolidated control of CCP 1943: Mao elected CCP party chairman (held until death in 1976) 1937: Japan invades China o start of WWII in Asia o pushed Chiang Kaishek’s gov. in SW eliminated Nationalists as active combatant CCP in NW on front line o Mao/Communists successfully mobilized peasants to use guerilla warfare to fight invaders Wartime leadership gained strong following 1945: end of WWII: CCP had vastly expanded membership o controlled much of countryside in N Japanese surrender Chinese civil war quickly resumed o Communists win over Nationalists (backed by US) Chiang Kaishek and supporters retreat to Taiwan Oct. 1, 1949: Mao Zedong declared founding of People’s Republic of China (PRC) Mao Zedong in Power (19491976) CCP: wave of popular support/considerable legitimacy: reputation as party of social reformers/patriotic fighters and early successful policies o Nationwide land reform campaign Redistributed property from rich to poor Increased agricultural production in countryside o Highly successful drives to eliminate opium addiction and prostitution in cities o National law to improve legal status of women in family CCP often used violence: achieve its objectives/silence opponents 19531957: implemented centrally planned economy/took decisive steps toward socialismadvised by Soviet Union o complete halt of privatization 19581960: Great Leap Forward o Mao’s discontent with expansion of gov. bureaucracy and persistence of inequalities o Utopian effort to speed up the country’s development o “one of the most extreme, bizarre, and eventually catastrophic episodes in 20 century political history” o depended on labor power/revolutionary enthusiasm of masses o aiming to propel China into era of true communism with almost complete economic/social equality Results of GLF: famine in rural areas(40 million dead)collapse of agricultureindustrial depression = terrible setback in economic development Early 1960’s: Mao takes less active role in daytoday decision making o Liu Shaoqi and Deng Xiaoping (other top leaders) put in charge of reviving economy Completely abandoned GLF: used combination of gov. planning and market oriented policies to stimulate production Mid 1960s: Chairman Mao concluded the policies of Liu and Deng had led to resurgence in elitism and inequality despite economic progress o Threatening his communist goals by aiming towards capitalism o Broke relations with Soviet Union Mao no longer convinced they were truly revolutionary country 19661976: Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution o Mao’s ideological crusade to jolt China back toward vision of communism o Campaign of mass mobilization and utopian idealism o Main objective: political purification of the nation through struggle against class enemies o Mao Zedong Though: Communist ideology Supported by coalition of radical party leaders, loyal military officers, student rebels (Red Guards)attacked anyone through to be guilty of betraying the Thought o 19661969: Cultural Revolution’s first phase 20+million Red Guards: rampaged across country o 19691971: next phase Mao used army to restore political order: Red Guards sent to live and work in countryside o 19721976: final phase insane power struggle over who would succeed Mao as leader of CCP Sept. 1976: Mao dies (82) o Oct.: group of moderately leaders arrested radical rivals (Gang of Four led by Mao’s wife Jiang Qing) o End of Cultural Revolution: at least 1 million dead & nation brought close to civil war Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of Chinese Communism 1978 Deng had become most powerful leader o never took formal positions of head of either the CCP or Chinese gov. for himselfappointed younger, loyal men Deng significantly reduced state control of the economy o Market forces: allowed to play increasingly important role o Private enterprise encouraged o Gov. allowed unprecedented levels of foreign investment Revitalize Gov.: o Bringing in younger and better educated officials 1980s: high levels of growth in economy after decades of stagnation o foundation for “one of the greatest economic miracles of the 20 century” 1978 and 1985: Deng named Time Magazine’s Man of the Year o received global recognition for reforms Spring 1989: largescale demonstrations in Beijing and other cities o Discontent over inflation and corruption o Desire (esp. among students/intellectuals) for more political freedom June 4, 1989: Tiananmen Square o Occupied for about 2 months prior by camp of students o Received lots of international media attentionquestions and attention to gov. o Leaders ordered army to clear squarestill unrevealed death toll Gov. claims was necessary for interest of national stability o Few years following: intense political crackdown/slowdown in pace of economic change Early 1992: bold steps by Deng to accelerate reform of the economy o Hoped economic progress would avoid collapse of communist system such as in Soviet Union From Revolutionaries to Technocrats (1997Present): Mid 1989: Deng Xiaoping promoted Jiang Zemin (former mayor and Communist Party leader of Shanghai) to head of the CCP o Deng gradually turned over greater authority to Jiangremained power behind throne 1993: Jiang became President of PRC Feb. 1997: Deng Xiaoping died: Jiang secure in position as top leader o Continued economic reform and remarkable growth PRC become even more integral part of global economy o Enhanced regional and international stature o BUT: widening gaps between rich and poor, environmental degradation, and pervasive corruption Jiang era: overall politically stable o BUT: CCP still repressed any individual/group perceived as challenging its authority Nov. 2002 and March 2003: Jiang Zemin is succeeded as Head of CCP and then PRC President by Hu Jintao o Remarkably predictable and orderly o First relatively peaceful toplevel political succession in 200+ years o Both represented new kind of leadership Technocrats, had university training, used professional competence and political loyalty to work their way up through the CCP Oct. 2007 and March 2008: Hu Jintao is reelected to 2 term as CCP leader and then PRC President o Project himself as populist leader: greater emphasis on dealing with the country’s most serious socioeconomic problems Enormous inequalities between regions and terribly inadequate public health system o Taken hard line on political dissent/challenges to authority of CCP 2008: top leaders of CCP grooming Xi Jinping to succeed Hu Jintao (retiring as head of CPC in 2012 and President in 2013) o Xi: educated technocrat o Little reasons to expect political deviation Themes and Implications Historical Junctures and Political Themes: The World of States 1949: PRC established: weak position in international system o centuries of foreign intervention o large mistakes by Mao o BUT: built strong state able to affirm/defend its sovereignty International stature increasing as economic and military strength have grown Relatively poor country (per capita) but economic powerhouse Foreign trade policies have significant effects on many other countries/global economy Nuclear power World’s largest conventional military Active/influential member of world’s most important international organizations become major player in world of states Governing the Economy Experimented with several different approaches to economic development o Early 1950s: Sovietstyle planning system, radical egalitarianism Maoist model, marketoriented policies implemented by Deng & successors Ideological disputes main area of political conflict in CCP during Mao era o 1970s bold reforms by Deng: hope improved living standards would improve legitimacy of CCP Success of recent leaders in governing economy: sustained authority of the CCP, while most other communist regimes have disappeared The Democratic Idea mid 1950s: building of oneparty communist state/Mao’s unrelenting campaign against alleged enemies of his revolution o hope for democracy vanished Deng Xiaoping era: much greater economic, social and cultural freedom o CCP has continued to halt stirrings of democratic idea o Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao: loyal disciples of Deng Jiang & Hu: championed economic reform and ensured CCP retains firm grip on power The Politics of Collective Identity Very strong sense of collective national identity o Long history and ancient culture Humiliations/suffering at hands of foreigners still influence international policies Faith in communist ideology has weakened as the country embraces capitalist economic policies So: CCP leaders have increasingly turned to Nationalism o Rally Chinese people behind gov. Cultural and ethnic homogeneity o Spared of widespread communal violence exceptions among border regions (Tibet and Muslim areas in NW) Implications for Comparative Politics Can be compared to other communist party states o Shared many political/ideological features o Why has it been so successful and durable compared to other failed Communist states such as the Soviet Union? rd Part of the 3 world as measured by average standard of living Record of growth: far exceeded all other developing countries Educational and health levels of Chinese people are quite good when compared to other countries at a similar level of development How has China had so much relative success? How and why has it resisted democratization? Political and Economy and Development State and Economy: 1949: CCP came to power: economy suffering from 100+ years of rebellion, invasion, civil war and bad government o new communists rulers seized most property o initially allowed some private ownership and many aspects of capitalism to continue in order to gain support for the gov./revive the economy early 1950s: CCP set up socialist planned economy based on Soviet model o state owned/controlled most economic resources and drove economic activity o beginning: impressive results o created huge bureaucracies and new inequalities Mao and the Great Leap Forward (19581961) and Cultural Revolution (1966 1976) o Built strong industrial base o People became much healthier and better educated o Maoist economy plagued by: political interference, poor management, ill conceived projects o large amounts of wasted resources Avg. standard of living barely changed from mid 1950s to 1976 (Mao’s death) China Goes To Market: 1962: Deng became one of the principal targets of the Cultural Revolution o criticized CCP: shouldn’t be considered whether a policy was capitalist or socialist as long as it helped the economy 1976: Deng emerged as foremost leader o sweeping economic reforms greatly reduced gov. control and increased market forces individuals encouraged to work harder and more efficiently to make money rather than “serve the people” (Maoist era) Today state no longer dictates what to produce and how to produce it in most sectors of the economy o Prices set by supply and demand (capitalist) rather than by gov. o Competition > gov. monopolies o Still many thousands of state owned enterprises with millions of employees Dominant critical parts of the economy (steel, petroleum, telecommunication, transportation) Stateowned sector=drain on country’s banks o Still sometimes required to bail out financially failing SOE’s CCP now strongly encourages/supports private business o Private sector= largest and fastest growing part of China’s economy o Invite owners of private enterprises to join party= “red capitalists” Planned economy market economy = fastest growing major economy in the world for the past 2 decades o Weathered recession of 20092010 better than any other major economy GDP per capita: still very low compared to that of richer countries Rising incomes consumer revolution o Cities: new middle class o Developing class of “superrich” millionaires and billionaires Officially PRC says it has a socialist market economy o Allowing some degree of capitalism, national and local bureaucrats continue to exercise a great deal of control over production/distribution of goods/resources/services CCP still determines direction of China’s economy Remaking the Chinese Countryside 1949: land reform o confiscated property of landlords and redistributed as private holdings to poorer peasants mid 1950s: state reorganized peasants into collective farms and communes o village owned land: local officials directed all production/labor o collectivized agriculture: one of the weakest links of China’s command economy: extremely inefficient 19571977: per capita agricultural production and rural living standards stagnant Deng Xiaoping: revival of rural economy=a top priority o Late 1970s: Abolished collective farming and established household responsibility systemremains in effect today o Agricultural productivity: sharply increased o Hundreds of millions lifted out of extreme poverty in last 2 ½ decades Economic life in rural areas: transformed by expansion of rural industry and commerce o Employ 190 million peopleabsorbing vast labor pool no longer needed in agriculture Society and Economy Economic reform society more diverse and open o Freer to chose jobs, travel, practice their religious beliefs, join non political associations, engage in wide range of other activities prohibited or severely restricted during Mao era Economic changeserious social problems o Sharp increase in crime, prostitution and drug use Economic reform significant changes in basic system of social welfare o Maoist economy: provided almost all workers with iron rice bowl Guarantees of lifetime employment, income, and basic cradleto grave benefits to most urban and rural workers o Believed that these guarantees led to poor work motivation and excessive costs for the gov. and businesses o Income/employment no longer guaranteednow directly tied to individual effort Estimated 60 million workers have been laid off from SOEs since early 1990s PRC has very little unemployment insurance or social security for displaced workers o Work slowdowns, strikes, lg. scale demonstrations becoming more frequent (partic. in NErust belt) o Official unemployment rate: approx. 4% of urban labor forcebelieved to be 3 to 4 times as high Life better for vast majority in rural areas o BUT: still poor availability of health care, educational opportunities, disability pay, retirement funds and social services o Rural protests, sometimes violent, increased significantly in recent years Angry about high taxes, corrupt local officials pollution, illegal land seizures by developers and delays in payments for agricultural products purchased by gov.) Flood of rural migrants to cities because of economic changes o Agriculture decollectivized in early 1980s peasants moved to look for jobs because of less restrictions o Floating population of about 150 million people: biggest human migration in history Migrants increase pressure on urban housing and social services o “urban villages” slumlike conditions that breed crime and other social problems some cities taken to locking gates of urban villages at night to keep residents from venturing out market reforms/economic boom have created sharp class differences o inequalities between people and parts of the country: risen significantly o prosperous coastal areas vs. inland areas CCP begun to promote development of “harmonious socialist society” o Emphasizes achieving higher avg. standard of living for the whole country, and more equitable distribution of income and social services o More investment being directed to the rural economy o 2006: gov. abolished taxes on agriculture social status, legal rights, employment opportunities and education of women have improved enormously since the founding of PRC in 1949 o trend toward market economy hasn’t benefited both genders equally o China has one of the world’s highest rates of female participation in the urban workforce o Market reforms have “strengthened and in some cases reconstructed the sexual division of labor, keeping urban women in a transient, lowerpaid, and subordinate position in the workforce” Men continue to dominate the rural economy o Even though farm labor is increasingly feminized Men moving to jobs in rural industry or migrating to cities o Alarming suicide rate among women in villages world’s highest Early 1980s: One Child Policy o Gov. insists without policy economic development would be endangered Various means to encourage/force couples to have a single child Large fines and loss of jobs used to punish violators; positive incentives (more farmland, preferred housing) for followers Defiance forced abortions or sterilization Slowing population growth: onechild campaign, modernizing economy, comparatively strong record in improving educational and employment opportunities for women o Brought growth rate to 0.5% per year Very low for country with their economic development PRC gov. praises success of onechild policy o Resistance in rural areas Family income depends on having more people to work Belief male children will contribute more economically to the family: male heir necessary to carry on family line female infanticide and abandonment, large number of sex selective abortions Unusual gender balance among its young population o Normal gender ratio 105:100 malefemale among newborns o PRC: 120:100 o 30 million more males than females o large number of young unmarried males kidnapping/selling of women o extreme gender imbalance likely to cause rise in: social instability, violent crime, gang formation o may become more authoritarian to maintain law, order and military adventuresome abroad to channel aggressiveness of young frustrated males Response to rural resistance/international pressure on population policies o Many rural families able to have 2 child if first is a girl, ethnic minorities may have up to 4 children Gov. announced that onechild policy will remain basically in effect until 2015 Economic boom/mixed stateprivate economy enormous opportunity for corruption o Officials still control many resources/ retain power over economic transactions o Gov. launched many wellpublicized campaigns against corruption Harsh punishment/execution for serious offenders Superfast economic development consumer product safety problems Economic growth severe environmental damage o Industrial expansion fueled primarily by coal o Air among dirtiest in the world o Little gov. regulation of garbage/toxic waste dumping o World’s largest source of carbon dioxide emissions (passed US) Per capita emissions remain lower than most developed countries PRC critical of other countries that press it or other developing countries to slow economic growth or invest in pollution controls o Gov. paying more attention to protection of the environment o Sustainable development: becoming key part of emphasis on building “harmonious socialist society” o Become leader in development of alternative clean energy (including wind and solar power) China in The Global Economy 1976: end of Maoist era, not deeply involved in global economy o stagnant economy, political instability, heavyhanded bureaucracy=not attractive to foreign investors Early 1980s: strategy of using trade as central component of Deng Xiaoping’s drive for economic development o Some ways followed model of exportled growth of Japan and newly industrializing countries South Korea, Taiwan o Takes advantage of lowwage domestic labor to produce goods that are in demand internationally Become “factory of the world”because so many countries import their products nd Now world’s 2 largest trading nation (goods/services) behind US o Projected to surpass US in total trade volume between 20152020 o Relatively equal balance between imports and exports Imports: industrial machinery, highlevel technology, scientific equipment, iron and steel, raw materials o Large domestic petroleum sources/significant untapped reserves o BUT: net importer of oil because of massive energy demands from economic boom/expanding private automobile market o Potential to increase world prices for some commodities/put added pressure on unrenewable resources Foreign investment rapidly increasing o 400+ of world’s 500 top corporations have operations in PRC o vast majority of investors: smaller firms producing electronics, clothing, footwear, and other consumer goods for export o low cost of labor: major attraction for foreign investors wages have been increasing and increasing competition from Vietnam, Bangladesh and other developing countries o huge domestic market: another foreign investor attractor Becoming a major in investor in other countries; part of gov.supported “going out” strategy to diversify economy Still relatively poor country in terms of its level of economic and technological development compared to richer nations Total output/rapid growth of its economy, expanding trade and investment and cast resource base (including population)rising economic superpower Making of the Modern Mexican State Politics in Action June 28, 2010: Rodolfo Torre Cantu-PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party) candidate-and 6 of his aides assassinated o South of border of Texas; response from drug crackdown by Cardenas-began in 2006 following his election o Wave of violence: 35,000 dead in less than five years o Fear that fight against drug cartels could be politically destabilizing Current challenges: institutional reform, economic development, integration into complex global networks 2000 presidential election brought and to PRI regime o discouraging: recent violence, political stalemate and economic stagnation July 4, 2010 governor elections o 3 states had coalitions of parties opposed to the PRI win o brought together National Action Party (PAN-right-center) and Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD-left-center) reflected shared fear of PRI comeback Need to: o Restore sense of security in society scarred by violence o Establish rule of law/combat impunity while police forces and criminal justice system are undergoing difficult process of reform o Reducing inequality o Creating jobs/opportunities in economy with growing integration into global markets Political Organization Political System Federal republic Regime History Current form of government since 1917 Administrative Structure Federal system with 31 states and a federal district (Mexico City) Executive President, elected by direct election with a 6 yr term of office; reelection not permitted Legislature Bicameral Congress. Senate (upper house) and Chamber of Deputies (lower house); elections held every 3 years. There are 128 senators, 3 from each of the 31 states, 3 from federal (capital) district, and 32 elected national by proportional representation for 6 year terms. The 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies are elected for 3 year terms from 300 electoral districts, 300 by simple majority vote and 200 by proportional representation Judiciary Independent federal and state court system headed by a Supreme Court with 11 justices appointed by the president and approved by the Senate Party System Multiparty system. One-party dominant (Institutional Revolutionary Party) system from 1929 until 2000. Major parties: National Action Party, Institutional Revolutionary Party, and the Party of the Democratic Revolution Geographic Society Communication and transportation between regions: difficult/expensive Rich in oil, silver, and other natural resources-long struggled to manage them wisely 2nd largest nation in Latin America (after Brazil) largest Spanish speaking nation in world 60% of population: mestizo- people of mixed Amerindian and Spanish descent Largest indigenous groups: Maya (S) and Nahuatl (central regions)- 1+million each Divisions of race and class issues in society Became largely urban country in 2 ndhalf of 20 century o Mexico city: one of world’s largest urban areas: 20 million people Migration has become major issue Critical Junctures Independence and Instability: 1810-1876 1521: Hernan Cortes and small band of Spanish forces topple Aztec Empire o Spain ruled Mexico for 3 centuries Colonial policy: designed to extract wealth New Spain (aka Mexico): goals of maintaining commitment to Roman Catholic Church and subordination to Amerindian population st 1810: parish priest Miguel Hidalgo began 1 of wars for independence 1821: independence gained o struggled for decades to create stable/legitimate government 1833-1855: 36 presidents came to power lost half of territory in disorganization after independence 1846: US declares war on Mexico over Texas border dispute 1848: treaty recognizing loss of Texas to US o gave what would be New Mexico, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, California and part of Colorado for about $18 million o deep resentment for US Post war: struggle between liberals and conservatives continued: political/economic order and esp. power of Catholic Church Constitution of 1857: somewhat democratic government, bill of rights, limitations on power of Church 1861: Spain, Great Britain, France: occupied Veracruz to collect debts owed France took Mexico city: installed European Prince as Emperor Maximilian (1864-1867) 1867: Benito Juarez returned to presidency-defeated/executed Maximilian o hailed as early proponent of more democratic gov The Porfiriato: 1876-1911 1876: Porfirio Diaz took office as president o established Porfiriato: dictatorship- ruled for 34 years o accepted initially: thought to have brought sustained stability o imposed highly authoritarian system: create political order/economic progress o with cientifocs (advisors)- encourage foreign investment/amassed huge personal fortunes monopolized political power/reserved lucrative economic investments for themselves The Revolution of 1910 and the Sonoran Dynasty: 1810-1934 Rev. 1910: ended Porfiriato-1 great social rev. of the 20 cent. 1910: Diaz had promised open election for president: Francisco I. Madero presented himself as candidate o reform minded o hoped new class of politically ambitious citizenspower o jailed by Diaz to suppress growing opposition o Diaz forced into exile 1911: Mader elected o soon used military to put down revolts by reformers/reactionaries 1913: Madero assassinated during coup d’etat-political order collapsed peasant revolt while middle class tried to replace Diaz o under Emiliano Zapata; manifesto: the Plan de Ayala- became part of Constitution: radical agrarian reform 1916: US entered Mexico to punish Francisco (Pancho) Villa for an attack on US territority (military maneuvers with banditry, looting and warlordism) o increased public hostility for US Constitution of 1917 o Formal set of political institutions o Guaranteed citizens range of progressive social/economic rights: agrarian reform, social security, right to organize in unions, min. wage, 8hr work day, profit sharing for workers, universal secular education, adult male suffrage o Right to vote for women: local elections- 1953 and national elections-1958 o Only citizens/gov. could own land/rights to water/other natural resources Limit power of foreign investors Plutarco Elias Calles emerged as supreme leader: pres. term- 1924-1928 o Selected/dominated successors 1929-1934 o Consolidation of power/extreme anticlericalismviolent conflict (Cristiada)- gov. vs. devout followers of Catholic Church’s conservative leadership 1929: Calles founds Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) o contenders for power-accommodate each other’s interests o ensured nonviolent conflict resolution among elites/rule of PRI for seven decades results of revolution: o power of traditional landowners-undercut o influence of Catholic Church strongly curtailed o power of foreign investors severely limited o new political elite consolidated power/agreed to resolve conflict through accommodation/bargaining rather than violence o new constitution/new party laid basis for strong central gov. that could assert its power over agricultural, industrial and social development Lazaro Cardenas, Agrarian Reform, and the Workers: 1934- 1940 1934: Lazara Cardenas handpicked as official candidate for pres. by Plutarco Elias Calles o anticipated Cardenas would abide by his behind-the-scenes management- he definitely didn’t o Cardenas: mobilized peasants/workers: pursue more radical goals of 1910 revolution o Redistributed 49 million acres of land: nearly 2x as much as all other pres. combined o Encouraged workers to form unions/demand higher wages/better working conditions 1938: took petroleum industry from foreign investors and put it under gov. control Cardernas years: bulk of pop. incorporated into political system o Expansion of role of state as gov. o Encouraged investment in industrialization o Provided credit to agriculture o Created infrastructure Politics of Rapid Development: 1940-1982 Cardenas’s successors: used institutions he created to counteract his reforms PRI developed huge patronage-clientelism Development oriented away from egalitarian social goals of 1930s toward development strategy where state actively encouraged industrialization/accumulation of wealth High economic growth rates: 1940s, 1950s, 1960s 1970s: industrial development policies no longer generating rapid growth o deep economic crises by mid 1970s discovery of oil: rapid economic growth again international petroleum prices plunged in early 1980s deep economic crises Crisis and Reform: 1982-2000 Pres: Miguel de la Madrid (1982-1988) and Carlos Salinas (1988- 1994) o Introduced 1 major reversal of developmental strategy since 1940s o Barriers to limit gov.’s economic role o Reduce barriers to international trade 1993: Salinas signed NFTA economic reforms of ‘80s and ‘90s: turning point: future development would be closely tied to international economic conditions 2008: deeply affected by economic crises in US Jan. 1 1994: guerrilla movement Zapatista Army of National Liberation (EZLN) seized 4 towns made demands-gov. criticized for inaction March 23, 1994: assassination of PRI’s pres. candidate Luis Donaldo Colosio in Tijuana o Possible conspiracy with party and law enforcement and drug cartels Aug. 1994: replacement candidate Ernesto Zedillo-PRI remained in power 1997: PRI lost absolute majority in Chamber of Deputies (lower house) for the 1 time in modern history Congress showing increasing dynamism as counterbalance to presidency Since 2000: Mexico as a Multi-Party Democracy Dec. 2000 Vicente Fox elected-1 non PRI pres. in 7 decades (PAN) o Found it difficult to make promised changes o Reform proposals defeated Post 9/11: US shifted attention away from Mexico and Latin America towards Middle East o Strengthened border security-lost chance for agreements/close relationship 2006: Felipe Calderon Hinojosa (PAN)- National Action Party candidate elected- won by small margin o main opponent Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (PRD)-Party of the Democratic Revolution; accused Calderon of favoring rich at expense of poor o Calderon said Obrador had authoritarian tendencies o Obrador’s defiant response: divided opposition-allowed Calderon to consolidate his power o Viewed as more competent/politically savvy than Fox admin. Greatest challenge: increasing cost of fighting war on drugs/organized crime o Calderon relied on army/federal police to launch military offensives against drug cartels o Triggered ongoing/unexpectedly intense wave of violence Killed tens of thousands Damaged country’s image abroad Undermined confidence of citizens in ability of gov. to maintain order/assure their safety Themes and Implications Historical Junctures and Political Themes Previously prided on being ideologically independent-abandoned during 1980s in favor or rapid integration into global economy Conflict between market-oriented development strategy and philosophical tradition of strong/protective state Corporatist state-increased state power in relation to civil society PRI: essential channel for material goods, jobs, distribution of land and allocation of development projects o Increase popular support/buy off opposition Scope for challenging gov. very limited traditionally State did not become openly repressive except when directly challenged 1980s: loss of capacity for PRI to control political activities o civic groups insisted on their right to remain independent future stability: depends on how well a more democratic gov. can accommodate conflicting interests while at the same time providing better economic opportunities to its very large number of poor citizens Implications for Comparative Politics PRI established enduring institutions of governance/conditions for political stability o Alliance between dominant party and strong development oriented state Currently transforming from corporatist state to democracy o Struggles to resolve conflicts of development through integration with N. American neighbors Oil rich: ready source of revenue/foreign exchange o Economy extremely vulnerable Upper-middle-income developing country o Higher than most developing countries: per capita income: $13,200 Political Economy and Development State and Economy Too attractive to foreign investors during Porfiriato (1876-1911) o Large industries controlled by foreign investors Petroleum, railroad network, mining wealth, railroad network o Nationalist reaction Nationalism combined with sense of social justice inspired by revolutionary leaders (like Zapata) Adopted developmental strategy of state capitalism o Relied heavily on gov. actions to encourage private investment/reduce risks for private entrepreneurs o Should it manufacture more rather than importing? Import Substitution and Its Consequences 1940-1982: pursued form of state capitalism and import substitution industrialization (ISI) o gov. promoted development of industries to supply domestic market by encouraging domestic/international investment o By 1960s-70s: producing consumer durables, intermediate goods and capital goods Massive agrarian reform of the 1930sejido became important structure in rural economy o After Cardenas; moved away from economic development of ejido Rising business elite-more gov. protections for domestic entrepreneurs o Protected businessespowerful players in national politics Workers became more important players o Unionization after Constitution of 1917 o Policy change 1940s: unions more dependent on gov. for benefits/protection o Labor leaders: privileged access to country’s political leadership and benefited personally from control over jobs/contracts/working conditions Able to veto gov. efforts to cut back on their benefits/lobbied for even more advantages Farmers primarily benefited from gov. policies/services in agriculture o By 1950s: groups of large commercially oriented farmers had emerged to dominate the agricultural economy Gov. policies eventually limited potential for further growth Urban poor grew steadily partic. from 1960s on Developed large informal sector Farming in ejido communities partic. difficult Increasing disparities in rural and urban incomes and high population growth ratesemergence of rural guerilla movements and student protests in mid-late 1960s o Domestic market limited by poverty By late 1960s: no longer able to met domestic demand for basic foodstuffs o Forced to import increasingly large quantities of food Cost gov. foreign exchange Sowing the Oil and Reaping a Crisis Early 1970s: threat of social crises from rural poverty, chaotic urbanization, high population growth, questioning of political legitimacy o Gov. response: increasing investment in infrastructure/public industries, regulating the flow of foreign capital, increasing social spending Public internal debt grew rapidly-required heavy borrowing abroad 1978-1982: became major oil exporter o fortune rose with oil prices; vice versa o Pres. Jose Lopez Portillo (1976-1982) “sow the oil” policy: vast investment projects in virtually all sectors, major new initiatives to reduce poverty and deal with declining agricul
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