Popular in US Foreign Policy
Psychology of communication
verified elite notetaker
HIST 1200 (History, Steven Watts, Survey of American History Since 1865)
verified elite notetaker
verified elite notetaker
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This 8 page Bundle was uploaded by Josiah on Sunday November 8, 2015. The Bundle belongs to PS 326 at University of Oregon taught by Yongwoo Jeung in Fall 2015. Since its upload, it has received 37 views. For similar materials see US Foreign Policy in Political Science at University of Oregon.
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Date Created: 11/08/15
*Abe Lincoln Historical context and war The US Civil War (1861-65) Threat of foreign intervention especially from Britain The confederacy's attempt to gain support from Britain Since the Napoleonic Wars, European powers had been eager to intervene in the new world Abe Lincoln administration had low geopolitical slack Supremacy of the Royal Navy Britain's heavy investment in Southern cottons British Military forces along the US-Canadian border Party Preference Diverse positions on slavery, recognition of the Confederacy, military actions Role of the Emancipation of Proclamation Toward domestic factions Rallying support for the cause of Civil War Towards Britain Empowering moderates and checking military hardliners who argued for intervention Policy choice Avoiding direct confrontation to Britain Quickly responding to damages to British private properties Blockade of the South instead of closure of port Nonbelligerent nations could trade with the South, which prolonged the war *F. D. Roosevelt Historical context and war Great Depression in the late 1920's Extension in production -> the Great Depression of the 1920's Great Depression led to different responses New Deal in the US Fascism in Italy, Nazism in Germany, militarization in Japan Roosevelt 1936-1939 Realization of geopolitical slack Rising of Hitler's Germany Trading with German steel industry and access to the German domestic market What if Germany pursued autarky? Neutrality Act of 1937 Limit the president's ability to intervene in foreign military conflicts Party Preference New Deal progressives in Democratic Party were isolationist FDR could not go against Neutrality Act Conservative Republicans also supported for isolationism Poor outcome of the New Deal "Roosevelt recession" of 1937 and 1938 Priority of reviving domestic economy Geopolitical slack is low Primacy of domestic recovery/restrained defense budget Not enough military power (navy) to project to the old war Outperformance of German industrial power Party preferences in the mid-1930's Pro-federal government's intervention Progressive Democrats Conservative southern democrats Anti-federal government's intervention Republicans Guns and Butter Guns: options for guns was hard to pursue because of budget restraints Butter: all parties are butter Belligerent/Isolationist Southern Democrats were closer to belligerent: they would prefer military build-ups as way to promote depressed economy Republicans in the middle Progressive Democrats were isolationist Policy Choice of Roosevelt The Welles Plan World conference for Germany to revise the terms of Versailles Aims to weaken German hard-liners' positions Stepping stone for international corporation to discuss arm limitation and economic security Policy Choice of Roosevelt after Welles Plan Aiding Britain, France, and others Against the Tripartite Alliance of Germany, Italy, and Japan Roosevelt's attempt to revise the Neutrality Act of 1939 Repealing the arms embargo Selling weapons to Britain, France, and others Let other countries deter German power -Expansion *When does it happen? For (offensive) realist, constantly Anarchy + uncertainty Trubowitz: Geopolitical slack goes up plus guns party is in power *Trubowitz's cases: James Monroe (1817-1825) William Mckinley (1897-1901) George W. Bush (200-2008) *James Monroe Geopolitical slack is high Stephen Skowronek said "Monroe was the first president to take office free of preoccupations with the survival of the Republic." The Napoleonic war + the War of 1812 -> power of Spain (Bourbon dynasty) goes down Spanish control of the Latin America goes down Partisan politics/coalitional politics The demise of Federalist Party Conflict within the Democratic-Republican Party (=Republican Party) Tension rose as the new West emerged politically Henry Clay from Kentucky (Speaker of the House, representative of the new West) vs. James Monroe (old coalition of seaboard South: Maryland, Virginia, and the Carolinas and Georgia) Clay's "American system" (84-5) Clay's concept of economic development Make the country less dependent on Europe The new West's strategy to get support from New York and Pennsylvania Pro-tariffs for workers and farmers This is against Southern farmers' preferences for free-trades Development of domestic infrastructures and domestic market with revenues from tariffs Expand the market to the Latin countries with recognition of South American revolutionaries Monroe's response to Clay John Quincy Adams as Secretary of State Dept. Embracing Federalist and taking old federalist' districts: NY, NE, MA and others Prioritizing interests in transatlantic trades "putting off recognition [of South American revolutionaries] until after the conclusion of negotiations with Spain over Florida and the Pacific Northwest" (87-8) Outcome: expansion Monroe Doctrine (82-3) No further colonization in America No US's intervention in Greek struggle for independence from Turkey Three principles 1. Noncolonization 2. Nonintervention 3. Noninterference *W. McKinley Outcome: expansion (1897-1901) 1.War against Spain over Cuba -Expansion of market toward Latin America 2. Expansion of US's influence on East Asia 3. In other areas 1. The Philippines 2. Hawaii 3. Puerto Rico 4. Guam and the Wake Islands Geopolitical slack is high The British in the late 1890's aimed to improve its relationship with the US The British realized it would cost a lot if it implemented balancing strategies against the Us over Americas Questionable cohesion of Continental powers: Spain, France, Germany, and Austria- Hungary Domestic Politics The importance of keeping tariffs for Republicans Military build ups lead to economic benefits to Republican constituents (mostly merchants and manufactures in the North) Money from tariffs lead to subsidizing potential opponents of the McKinley administration (mostly workers and farmers in the West) "Expansionism generated military spending that turned customs duties into political capital that was spent to counter the powerful and seductive appeal of populism in the West" 95 -Retrenchment *When does it occur Offensive Realism When leaders are being foolish or irrational Defensive Realism When states recognize that they are not threatened Theory of Executive Choice (Trubowitz) When geopolitical slack is high (security is abundant) Partisan coalition prefers butter over guns *Trubowitz's cases Martin Van Buren (1837-42) Herbert Hoover (1923-33) Bill Clinton (1993-2000) *Martin Van Buren Geopolitical Slack is high When the British was ruled by the Whigs (which are different from American Whigs), it concerned more about supporting liberal democratic insurgencies against autocratic power in Europe Outcomes Van Buren administration did not intervene in political rebellion in Canada in 1837 even though it could take advantage of the event Preventing unintended skirmishes with Britain from developing bigger military conflicts No annexing Texas, no proceeding to Canada Domestic Politics Economic situation: economic recession in 1830's Andrew Jackson's expansive policies towards the west Booms in development projects in the West Money borrowed from Britain The Bank of England's limitation of credit to those who invested in the New World for fear of the burst of the bubble The Whigs v. Andrew Jackson's Democratic Party Whigs Big supporter of big businesses and manufactures Support high tariffs for protection Commercial interests rather than farmers and workers Jeffersonian Jacksonian Democrats Agriculture-based free trades policies Slavery Expansion of territories Brutality toward the Native Americans The economic recessions of the 1830's provided the Whigs political weapons against Jeffersonian and Jacksonian economic polices Conflicts within the Democratic Party Northern Democrats v. Southern Democrats The conflicts within the party was dormant in the Jackson administration due to his charismatic leadership, which Van Buren could not replicate Economic recession of the 1830's forced political parties to turn towards butter issues Intervention Whigs wanted central bank and fiscal policy Northern and Southern Democrats wanted Laissez-Faire: democrats were split because annexing Texas would endorse slavery *Herbert Hoover Geopolitical slack is high US had no foreign threat during the 1920's after the WWI US's perception that there was no imminent threat was documented via military report Domestic Politics Great Depression Stock market crash in October 1929 Republicans' preferences Halfhearted internationalist Prioritizing domestic economic recovery Mostly for tariffs, protective economic policies Outcomes Curtailing military budgets Using the London Conference to limit navel power of potential foreign competitors US decided not to project power to the Latin America, which otherwise would have enhanced US influence and his publicity without upsetting potential competitors in Europe Nov. 3 -Irrational Security: the politics of defense from Reagan to Obama Framework Fragmented institutional environment Principle of check and balances Congress v. Executive (Presidency) v Judiciary Democrats v. Republicans in both houses It is not easy to replace old legislations with entirely new ones A winning strategy for reformers to bring some changes might be layering new ones to old ones "Disjointed pluralism" (Erik Schickler) "National security are systematically dysfunctional…damaged" Supremacy of politics over given preferences "Politics shape or determines what emerges from their convergence and conflict." Jack Snyder's argument Coalition for Militarism v. Coalition for Peace Powerful interest groups and institutions tend to support for militarism Political coalition for peace tends to be weaker than coalition for militarism because the former is not organized Collective action problem C.f. US consumers v. US manufacturers Comparison to Democratic Peace Theory Penalizing "pacifists" in peacetime Even after the end of the Cold War (since the Reagan administration) Incumbents' incentive to use militarism Rallying public support for aggrandizement of power (e.g. wartime president) Opposing party's incentive to use militarism Accusing the incumbent party or incumbent president (weak incumbent) of their weakness Three phases after the Cold War 1989-1994: substantial cuts in some areas of military 1995-2000: reaching on an agreement that military spending must increase, when Jack Snyder's logic revisited politics but in the absence of "the narrative framework" After 9/11, 2001: completing the previous trend of military buildup with a new narrative Winning the Cold War "Peace through Strength" The efficacy of deterrence and containment "what tended to dominate was a form of elite vindication of peace through strength" (23) "triumphalism" Empowering hawkish military policies in the US Why? We need to be prepared in a time of peace, be able to fight two wars at once Wirls's criticism of triumphalism (26) Reagen's winning strategies Resolve: Challenging to the Cold War status quo Rollback: Nullifying Soviet advances or leftist gov't e.g. Invasion of Grenada (1983) Rearmament: Peace through strength Increasing the USSR's financial burden Grenada US intervenes in the civil war of Grenada in 1983 Got messy because both sides didn't want the US in their country How US won the Cold War George H. W. Bush's military policy Temporal disputes over new military policy Dick Cheney (Secretary of Defense) + Paul Wolfowitz (Under Secretary of Defense) Vs. Collin Powell (Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff: JCS) The Soviet Union is still a main threat vs. regional conflicts become main security concern Powell went to the public to overcome political resistance from some military elites and finally seemed to win the battle The Base Force for regional Conflicts: The US military force was being adjusted to regional conflicts without the Soviet Union's intervention Powell's the Base Force The US military force was being adjusted to regional conflicts without the Soviet Union's intervention during the G. H. W. Bush administration What would be an ideal combination of military forces to achieve the goal? Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait A "timely crisis" in 1990 that clarified the Powell's new military plan Strategic shift from Europe to regional contingencies Since then, regional conflicts became true security threats to the US among military elites Four Lessons of the Gulf War Verification of regional conflicts as main threats to the US Reagan's military buildup paid off Setting up the Gulf War standard Overwhelming force, quickness, ignorable # of causalities Necessity of unilateral military force even after the Cold War Conflicting two goals o One side: Reducing military spending after the Gulf War became nearly impossible o Other side: Fiscal crisis of the US government since Reagan Bill Clinton and military policy o Clinton's election campaign in 1992 "It's the economy, stupid." o Peace dividend Money from military budget cuts should be cashed and spent on domestic priorities *(butter over guns) Clinton's "Bottom-up Review" o Fiscal necessity to trim military budgets o However, basic elements of the previous "the Base Force" were maintained Bush-Cheney-Powell's Base Force Continuity of personnel *Collin Powell as chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff o Curtailment in Personnel The Bush's Base Force: 1.6 million The Clinton's BUR: 1.4 million o Downsizing military force Army 12 -> 10 active divisions Air Force 15 -> 13 fighter wings Navy 448 -> 346 ships *12 -> 11 aircraft carriers Principles of Bottom-up Review 1. Waging two major regional conflicts simultaneously 2. Without allies' support / going unilaterally 3. Principle of "engagement and enlargement" 1. Anthony Lake, National Security Advisor Lake's rogue states: N. Korea, Cuba, Iraq, Iran, Libya 2. Maintaining previous engagement in the world 3. Enlargement of free market Criticisms of BUR o Clinton's campaign promise to lift a ban on homosexuals joining the military Unsatisfactory compromise for both side "Don't ask, don't tell" / cultural war o "Blackhawk Down" at Somalia in Oct 1993 Battle of Mogadishu 18 US soldiers were killed o Clinton's military policy became a target of public skepticism o BUR was criticized from both Liberals and conservatives as Too ambitious Too small military budgets and thus too small military force to achieve the goal Missile defense and budget politics o Expensive - Reagan: Strategic Defense Initiative or Star Wars against the Soviet Union o Moderate - George H. W. Bush: Global Protection against Limited Strike against Unauthorized launch from the former Soviet Union or China Russia and China Regional conflicts launching shorter-range missiles o Cheaper - Clinton: National Missile Defense Digression slide: Arkansas o Many poor whites/low population o State don't have any money crops o Determined Clinton's policy preferences? Political backgrounds of 1990's o Democrats' relative indifference to security issues during the election campaign of 1992 "it's economy, stupid" o Cultural wars -> political compromise Department of Defense's discriminatory practice: when recruiting personnel, it asked sexual orientation Clinton and Democratic party's campaign plank on a ban of any discriminatory military practice Massive backlash from conservatives, military high ranked officials once Clinton got elected "Don't ask, don't tell" o Security issues as political weapon for Republicans General logic of post-war adjustment o Wartime overproduction has to be ended During WWII US (mass production) v. Germany (quality production) In the Eisenhower administration of the 1950's C.f. Phillips Curve: inflation v. unemployment Austerity measure: constrain the supply of money (making borrowing money more expensive -> slow down the economy) High interest rates + taxation High unemployment rates It pays political costs o After the Cold War end, the same logic applies What would be a wise way to transform the previous war (over) production to private production? Two possible answers are, Going (painfully) back to normalcy adjustment to private production where the principles of supply and demand determines economic decisions Justifying overproduction in political terms Clinton administration chose both options Hollow military force o Senator McCain's report "Going Hollow: The Warnings of Our Chiefs of Staff" Definitions of "a hollow military": a huge gap between documented numbers of military force and actual numbers of military force that can be immediately used for operations
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