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This 10 page Bundle was uploaded by Josiah on Thursday November 19, 2015. The Bundle belongs to PS 326 at University of Oregon taught by Yongwoo Jeung in Fall 2015. Since its upload, it has received 29 views. For similar materials see US Foreign Policy in Political Science at University of Oregon.
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Date Created: 11/19/15
Industrial Base Argument 1. Producing high-tech military weapons takes time unless the skills and technologies are kept and protected to stay in business. Some of military businesses has to be protected for the sake of national security 2. Saving the production of high-tech military weapons saves jobs and thus contributes to the national economy US arms sales o "During the Cold War, international politics determined the character of global arms transfers. In the post-Cold War period, however, domestic economic imperatives have become the dominant factor." (64) o The US sold massive amounts of weapons to Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, and son on from Aug. 1990 (the eve of the Gulf Crisis) through Spring 1992 o Sales of seventy-five F15s to Saudi Arabia at the end of the Bush administration: for jobs and thus for economy Privatization in the military sector o In the Clinton administration o In response to fiscal pressure on the federal government o Three reasons of relying on private contractors 1. Reducing the size of standing army 2. Applying market principle and reducing the cost : promoting competition among contractors 3. Placating Republicans' political attacks by applying the market principle to running government 1994 midterm election Newt Gingrich's "Contract with America" Emphasis on austerity and on vague security principle Rethinking frameworks o Realism Systemic-level variables E.g. distribution of power or # of powerful armies o Liberalism Variants of liberalism from Moravcsik's article: if the boundary of a country does not go with racial identity=might create problems Domestic factors and influence of free market o Trubowitz's framework Guns v. butter issue in domestic politics + degree of geopolitical slack o Wirls Domestic Politics -> layering, incoherency, hodgepodge Summary of the Clinton administration security policy o Open question: according Wirls, can we regard the Clinton administration as butter party in power? o Clinton's irresponsibility to making decisive decisions on military issues (budget and new procurements) under the circumstance of a procurement holiday that the Reagan military build-up had created o No big change in military policy after the Cold War The Base Force (Bush) -> the bottom-up-review (Clinton, fist term) -> the Quadrennial Defense Review of 1997 (Clinton, second term) -The Rise of the US and Cold War The Peace of Illusions o Christopher Layne Professor at the Bush School of Government and Public Service (Texas A&M) Neoclassical realist ~ Realist Paid attention to domestic factors and ideological factors Liberal theories Constructivism (role of ideas) Realist theories and predictions o Offensive realism Mearsheimer Stopping power of water Offshore balancing Only regional hegemon is possible Prediction: no pursuit of global hegemony o Defensive realism Pursuing hegemony further than its region for great powers is SELF-DEFEATING strategy It causes strategic overreach It weakens domestic economic base Competing powers will balance against the ambitious power, which is a kind of iron law in the international system Prediction: no pursuit of global hegemony READ LAYNE, P. 18 US's extraregional hegemony o Layne argues, The US is not a offshore balancer Instead it has pursued global hegemony Its pursuit of extraregional hegemony started even before the WWII Predictions of offensive and defensive realists do not apply to history We need a new theory: neoclassical realism Neo(classical)realist approach o Independent variables Systemic level variables (realism) o Intervening variables Domestic politics Politics on Capitol Hill Ideological conflicts Economic situation o Lead to: US foreign policies Layne's framework #1 o Independent Variables Offensive Realism # of powerful countries Power gap among powerful countries Military technologies o Intervening Variables Political and economic Open Door ideologies o Lead to: Pursuit of extraregional hegemony Layne's framework #2 o READ LAYNE FIGURE 1 "Extraregional hegemony theory:…" Layne's frameworks #3 o Systemic variables Significant relative power advantage Political and military conditions in the Western Hemisphere Changes in distributive power in Europe o Domestic factors Ideas of elites: what do governing elites prefer? Economic open door Political stability -> economic interest goes up o Political open door Spreading democracy and liberalism abroad Economic and political open door o "These pillars [two aspects of the Open Door polices] are linked by the perception that "closure" abroad threatens the survival of American core values - what policymakers call "the American way of life" - at home." 30-2 (the emphasis is Layne's) o Here American liberalism connects domestic factors with international variables o C.f. John Winthrop's sermon "A city upon a hill" a liberal tradition of American culture Layne's argument in brief o Offensive as well as defensive realisms fails to predict the US's pursuit of extraregional hegemony o The US grand strategy since at least the 1940s makes the US more insecure o The US has to pull its military back from Europe, East Asia, and the Persian Gulf region Trubowitsz and Layne compared o Trubowitz Layne International Variables Geopolitical Slack (Threats) Power Distribution Domestic Variables Partisan Coalition: guns or Elites' ideas: open door butter policies Post-1940s US Grand Varies Is consistent Strategy Before the WWII o The reason why the US did not pursue expansionary foreign policies in the European Continent can be found in power distribution of the Continent during the 1920s and 1930s Britain, France, Germany, and the Soviet Union were still strong in those periods If the US had projected its power to the region, it would have been resisted by competitors During the WWII o However, WWII eliminated multiple "polars" within the Continent, which led to the US's expansionary policies. Also fortunately for the US, at that time, enjoyed its capacity to overcome "stopping power of sea" by applying advanced military technologies o "US postwar planning began in December 1939, when [Cordell] Hull [secretary of State Department] appointed a departmental committee to study the problems of postwar peace and reconstruction." 42 [Knowledge of their relative power starts gaining] o The Bretton Woods System Free trade and convertibility Pegged exchange rates US $35 per oz of gold C.f. impossible trinity: it is impossible to achieve following three goals simultaneously Free capital flow Fixed change rates Autonomous or sovereign monetary policy Impacts on Britain? US had declared their economic hegemony Origins of Cold War o Conventional approach: Stalin and communism o Realists: Kenneth Waltz (# of powerful countries) o Christopher Layne: Extraregional hegemony theory Checking the history again o From 1945 to 1947, the USSR took a mixed policy of cooperation and competition o Historical documents show that US policy makers right after WWII did not perceive USSR's military power as threat to the US o Then, why did the US take an aggressive stance toward the USSR? (a question Layne raised) Yalta Conference (Feb. 1945) o Yalta Axioms Franklin D. Roosevelt embraced the axioms "downplayed the role of ideology and the foreign policy consequences of authoritarian domestic practices, and instead saw THE SOVIET UNION AS BEHAVING LIKE TRADITIONAL GREAT POWER within the international system, rather than trying to overthrow it." (Daniel Yergin, requote from Layne, p. 54) Riga, Latvia o Riga Axioms Riga is a port of Latvia facing the Baltic Sea where US diplomats and US spies collected information on the Bolshevik Russia mostly during 1920-1933 before FDR's recognition of the Soviet Union It viewed "the Soviet Union as a WORLD REVOLUTIONARY STATE, denying the possibilities of coexistence, committed to unrelenting ideological warfare, powered by a messianic drive for world mastery" (Daniel Yergin, requote Layne p. 54) George F. Kennon, a graduate from Riga diplomats: very influential figure in the Truman administration Riga Axioms -> German -> Yalta Axioms -> Truman's -> Riga Axioms Invasion of the Soviet embrace of Cold War Union The US's suspicion of the The USSR and the US were part National Security Council 20/4 (Nov. Soviet Union and of of anti-Nazi Germany coalition 1948) and NSC 68 (Apr. 1950) & US communism in general & Roosevelt died in 1945 aimed to eliminate the USSR as rival (Truman took over) for global hegemony US's Open Door policies and Germany o Economic Open Door policies The revival of Western Europe was necessary for US's economic interest Market for exports & imports o Political Open Door policies Achieving political stability benefits the US Spreading liberal values to the world as US's mission Against nationalism, autarky (closed economy), and totalitarianism US's Open Door policies and Europe o Economic and political Open Door policies became intertwined at the revival of Western Europe Resuscitating Western Europe satisfied both Open Door policies C.f. Economic hardship in the 1930s -> nationalism + autarky + extreme ideologies including communism -> intensive competition among European countries -> WWII "Economic interests and the concomitant geopolitical need for stability and the ideological need for an "open" international system in which US core values would be secure" (Layne, p. 80) US's opposition to German Unification o German natural resources and heavy industries had to contribute only to the economic rebuilding of Western Europe, not to the recovery of USSR o Reparation problem (Layne p. 65) When unified, German economy as a whole would have to pay for the costs that the Soviet Union paid during the WWII, which would be against the US's interest The German Problem o Necessity of reviving Western Europe to realize the US Open Door policy preference Recovery of West Germany was inevitable o Neighboring countries such as France never wanted to see revived Germany again Experience of WWI & WWII Superior industrial power (which is easily able to be transformed into military power) Susceptibility to nationalism and other extremes o US's "double containment" "Germany’s revitalization had to be harnessed to the causes of European recovery and Soviet containment without restoring its prewar hegemony or reinvigorating the economic autarky that had twice led to world war” (Layne p. 81) Layne further argued that even if it had not been for the threat of the Soviet Union, the U.S. would have pursued its extraregional hegemony in the West Europe so as to harness Germany Open door and Western Europe o Solution #1: Marshall Plan Western Europe's Dollar gap (Layne pp. 73-74) Gave money to Western Europe in order for them to buy US products The US gave 17 billion (approximately 160 billion today) to help rebuild the European economies "… FAR FROM BEING A RESPONSE TO THE SOVIET UNION OR COLD WAR, the Marshall Plan's real purpose was to make Germany's economic reconstruction politically acceptable by presenting it as a Western European economic recovery program." (p. 82-3) o Solution #2: Economic integration Economic merits of creating a single market Lowering tariff barriers for US exporters Contributing to economic recovery of Western Europe by economies of scale ("comparative advantage", David Ricardo) Political or security merits of a single market Monitoring and harnessing superior productivity of German steel industry (European Coal and Steel Community: Schuman Plan: Treaty of Paris 1951) Legitimizing German revival and using it for W. Europe o Solution #3: NATO (1949) The US would protect militarily France and other neighboring countries from hypothetical German aggression in exchange of their acceptance of US's open door policies Against divisive nationalist trends in Europe It prevents the Europe from backsliding to multipolarity which was a conflict-laden system Even without the Soviet's threat, the NATO serves US's interest in implementing its grand strategy o Extraregional hegemony theory recap Independent variables US military and economic superiority after WWII Intervening Variables Ideological (political) and economic urge to integrate the W. Europe's economy and to provide member countries with security against external threats Leads to US's hegemonic presence in the W. Europe even without USSR Daniel Wirls recap o Irrational Security: the politics of defense from Reagan to Obama o Fragmented domestic institutional environment and irrational security policies in the US Dysfunctional Fiscal crisis after the Cold War Key Themes o Military legacy of the Clinton administration o G.H. Bush admin before 9/11 o G.H. Bush admin after 9/11 o Bunker-busters o Presidential power "The era of drift" o G.H.W. Bush and Republicans' rhetoric used in attacking the Clinton administration military policy o C.f. Clinton's military policy Bottom up review Extension of the Base Force plan Engagement and enlargement Attacks from the right: hollow military force Privatization and arms sales Clinton Doctrine o Engagement and enlargement Keep a previous policy of engagement Enlarging free market o Going multilaterally UN and NATO Usage of allies' military force to regional instability from spreading o "The successor to a doctrine of containment must be a strategy of enlargement - enlargement of the world's free community… We must counter the aggression - and support the liberalization - of states hostile to democracy… The United States will seek to isolate (nondemocratic states) diplomatically, militarily, economically, and technologically." o NATO intervention in Kosovo in 1999 A verifiable stop to all military action and the immediate ending of violence and repression The withdrawal from Kosovo of the military, police, and paramilitary forces The stationing in Kosovo of an international military presence The unconditional and safe return of all refugees and displaced persons and unhindered access to them by humanitarian aid organizations The establishment of a political framework agreement for Kosovo on the basis of the Rambouillet Accords, in conformity with international law and the Charter of the United Nations o Failed states: Somalia, Yugoslavia, Haiti Cold War legacies o Meeting humanitarian urges to intervene in those countries o State building process Bush Doctrine o Going unilaterally Though, the US would welcome allies' military support Aiming to change hostile and aggressive regimes instead of intervening civil wars o Three key documents 2001 Quadrennial Defense Review (before 9/11) 2002 National Security Strategy 2002 Nuclear Posture Review o Bush 5 Strategic Goals and Ideas Assurance DISSUASION Deterrence Decisive Victory PREEMPTION Bush before 9/11 o Prioritizing tax cuts Part of Bush's presidential campaign o Increasing military budgets seemed politically impossible before 9/11 Fiscal restraints Vague military plan (not that different from the previous administration) o It really depends upon how our nation conducts itself in foreign policy. If we're an arrogant nation, they'll resent us. If we're a humble nation, but strong, they'll welcome us. And it's - our nation stands alone right now in the world in terms of power, and that's why we have to be humble….We're freedom-loving nation and if we're an arrogant nation they'll view us that way, but if we're a humble nation they'll respect us." o Quadrennial Defense Review 2001 Bush administration's intention to increase military budget "The capabilities-based planning" It became unimportant who might be future enemies to the US. Instead overwhelming capabilities Two regional conflicts does not have to be identified in advance The importance of the question ‘who would be possible threats to the US’ lessened. Instead how the hypothetical enemy will fight and in response how the US will prevent it becomes much more important. “Dissuasion” became a policy goal: superiority in strength which makes other potential competitors think that it is useless to attempt to catch up with the US in military. Bush after 9/11 o 9/11's political effect "Rally around the flag" effect o 2002 National Security Strategy Emphasis of "preemption" "Put another way, an imminent attack could be years away; it might not even be planned. All that is required is that the enemy is capable of the attack and that an attack would meet his objectives; actual plans for an attack, let alone material preparations for one, are not needed." Following the logic of preemptive war, the fact that Iraq had no WMDs was not that important in justifying the war. The Iraqi capabilities to develop WMDs in the future and to sell them to unspecified terriorists sufficed rationale of the war fully for the newly set US military purpose o "Skipping a generation" of technolgy Part of the "capabilities-based planning" “Transformation” is a part of preemption strategy: the transformation is a necessary condition for the US military to implement preemption easier. A “capabilities-based” policy is indeed based on US military’s capabilities of projecting its influence on other regions or other countries. Is there any standard set beforehand upon which we can judge the achievement of the goal? o 2002 Nuclear Posture Review “… nuclear weapons would be considered as an option in a continuous spectrum with conventional weapons for use in a conflict against a foe that might not even possess nuclear weapons, let alone have used them. This would require, as the NPR notes, new low-yield nuclear weapons – often dubbed “mini-nukes”- that would be capable of penetrating deep underground facilities. In this way nuclear weapons would be fully integrated into the QDR’s goals of assurance, dissuasion, deterrence, and defeat.” 117-8 o Before the 9/11 the Republicans failed to remove the ban in Congress due to the ‘nuclear taboo’ o The Congress mostly complied with the government’s suggestion to replace the legal ban in order for the government to support for the dispatched US troops in Iraq after 9/11 o After it became evident that the US government had exaggerated the danger of WMDs in Iraq, members of House led by Republican Dave Hobson defunded the program. In 2005 Congress finally terminated the program but “research on conventional bunker busters continued.” Anti-torture and presidential power o Attorney General Alberto Gonzales's confirmation hearing in 2005 Anti-torture laws could not be applied to non-US territories like Abu Gharib o In response to it, John McCain's the Detainee Treatment Act of 2005 was proposed Regardless of nationality or physical location o Bush did not veto it o Instead, Bush's signing statement says: "the Executive Branch shall construe [the torture ban] in a manner consistent with the constitutional authority of the President to supervise the unitary Executive Branch and as Commander in Chief and consistent with the constitutional limitations on the judicial review." o Bush could ignore the bill if he felt necessary Trubowitz recap: Domestic constraints o Limits of the systemic level theories Same / similar degree of geopolitical slack -> different outcomes o Domestic constraints Does the president need his/her party's political support? Choice over "guns and butter" Who are supportive of military build-ups? Partisan coalition C.f. pork barrel politics E.g. Agriculture States' disagreement with the federal government's military build-ups before the Civil War and during the 1930's o Limit in the budget -> Opportunity costs Investments in butter cannot be spent on guns Clinton: Trubowitz's point of view o Clinton did not pull US military force out of foreign countries completely o Clinton's support of NATO's expansion to Poland, Hungary, and Czech Republic despite liberal Democrats' opposition o Republicans' victory in 1994 midterm election Both houses became controlled by Republicans Vulnerability of the Clinton administration to Republicans' attack (e.g. 'the hollow military force') o Free Trades Clinton administration promoted free trade & (NAFTA) Wedge politics Dividing Republicans and Democrats A way to overcome potential political obstacles put by both houses controlled by Republicans o This is the arena where some political theorists find no difference in political philosophies between Democrats and Republicans e.g. Michael Sandel "Democracy' Discontent" o Clinton's "missile diplomacy" "Clinton was a half-hearted interventionist" Avoiding a wholesale dispatch of military force o Humanitarian missions in failed states Decreasing public support after the US's failure in Somalia (The Battle of Mogadishu) o Returning economic prosperity enabled the government to placate Republican hawks with increased military budgets without cutting investment in butter issues o -> Guns issues were also pursued o Implications: Gray zones of the Trubowitz's model Why did the Clinton administration not bring US's military force back home? Why did Trubowitz's executive choice theory not explain the Clinton administration neatly? Bush: Trubowitz's point of view o In the presidential election of 2000, G. W. Bush emphasized domestic political issues like education and tax cuts o He was vague at security issues o Though, for Republicans hawks the election was G. W. Bush ushered a new era Massive military buildup was desired Political grammer in regard to military force during the Clinton administration was ready e.g. hollow military force o "I argue that the 9/11 attacks resolved the tension that existed between what America's international position made possible geopolitically and what domestic opinion would allow the militarist wing of the Republican Party to get away with." (Trubowitz, 99) o 9/11 -> change in previous party preference in regard to guns and butter issues: both parties moved to guns issues o Is this perspective different from D. Wirls's view? o Increased military budget after 9/11 o Military unilateralism Afghanistan Iraq o Free trades policy: Similar to the Clinton administration So as to reward countries that ardently supported US's war on terrorism o National security issue as a tool for partisan warfare In the presidential election of 2004, "If we make the wrong choice [of candidates], then the danger is that we'll get hit again." -- Vice President Dick Cheney o Democratic Party's victory in the 2006 election o "domestic balance of power" The dissipation of public support of the Bush administration The Iraq War and Hurricane Katrina 2005 o End of military expansionism?
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