### Create a StudySoup account

#### Be part of our community, it's free to join!

Already have a StudySoup account? Login here

# Study Guide - Final Exam MGT 303

UM

GPA 3.2

### View Full Document

## 1526

## 0

## Popular in Operations Management

## Popular in Business, management

This 38 page Study Guide was uploaded by Blair O'Brien on Monday February 2, 2015. The Study Guide belongs to MGT 303 at University of Miami taught by Vincent Omachonu in Fall2014. Since its upload, it has received 1526 views. For similar materials see Operations Management in Business, management at University of Miami.

## Popular in Business, management

## Reviews for Study Guide - Final Exam

### What is Karma?

#### Karma is the currency of StudySoup.

#### You can buy or earn more Karma at anytime and redeem it for class notes, study guides, flashcards, and more!

Date Created: 02/02/15

Chapter 4 Factors that affect Accuracy of Forecast 1 Product Life Cycle Government Legislative Action Competition s Actions and Reaction Technological Innovation Market Trends Variations F thDN Forecasting Techniques Quantitative Techniques 1 Naive Techniques Averages Moving Averages Weighted Moving Averages Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages 0quotwa Forecast Error Error At Ft gt Ideally it should be 0 but it rarely is Techniques 0 Avg Forecast Error gt measures the models tendency to over or under forecast 0 When bias is I Negative gt over forecast actual lt forecast I Positive gt under forecast actual gt forecast 0 Mean Absolute Deviation MAD most popular 0 This technique says that it doesn t matter if you were over or under it just cares that you didn t hit the mark 0 MAD doesn t care about direction of error just the magnitude of error 0 Mean Square Error MSE o Mean Absolute Percent Error MAPE o Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages o Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages with Trend Correction Regression Standard Error SE MEANING 1 standard deviation quotThere is a 68 chance that the actual forecast would be Coefficient of Correlation r ls between 1 lt r lt1 Measures the strength of the relationship between 2 variables Coefficient of Determination Measures the extent in which a change in the dependent variable can be explained by a change in the independent variable Examples Period At Moving Avg Weighted MA MAD MA MAD WMA Ft Ft 1 5 2 4 3 6 4 7 5 5 6 a Use a 3period moving average to forecast for period 6 b Use a 2period weighted moving average to forecast for period 6 where the weights are 07 and 03 most recent and further away respectively c Which of these technologies are better on the basis of MAD Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages and Mean Squared Error Period At 1 5 2 4 3 6 4 7 5 5 a Use EWMA given and Calculate the forecast for period 6 b What is MSE c Use EWMA again but use instead d What is the new MSE e Which of the two ways would you recommend Forecast with Trend Find the forecast with trend for period 5 Period At Ft Tt FIT 1 4 2 6 3 9 4 12 5 Linear Regression Period x At y xy 1 2 2 5 3 6 4 1O 5 12 a Find the linear regression model b What is the forecast for period 6 c What is the forecast for period 10 d What is the standard error and what does it mean e What is the coefficient of correlation and coefficient of determination and what do they mean Seasonal Forecasting In 2014 the company expects to sell 80 units Develop the forecast for each quarter 2011 2012 2013 Quarterly Seasonal Forecast Average lndex Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Chapter 12 Economic Order Quantity EOQ TC Production Order Quantity Model t Qp production rate per day Max Inventory gt Holding Cost gt Q gt Test 2 Study Guide Chapter 3 Project Management Critical Path Method CPM AON Charts Forward Pass choose larger Backward Pass choose smaller Ex 1 Activity Predecessor Activity Duration Weeks A 2 B 3 C A 2 D A B 4 E C 4 F C 3 G D E 5 H F G 2 a Create the AON chart b What is the critical path Project Evaluation Review Technique PERT gt what probability you ll finish at time x Use 2 chart Project variance is all of the variances of the critical path added up Ex 2 Use predecessors from above Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic Expected Variance a m b Time A 1 2 3 B 2 3 4 C 1 2 3 D 2 4 6 E 1 4 7 F 1 2 9 G 3 4 11 H 1 2 3 a Create the AON chart b What is the critical path C What is the project variance d What is the probability that the project will be finished in 16 weeks 6 What is the probability that the project will be finished in 18 weeks f What if you need a 99 probability how many weeks would that be What if you have a project with slack of 6 weeks You have room so you can pull people from there to get critical tasks done on time Project Crashing shorten duration of a project at the least cost 0 Crash Time new duration of an activity after it is crashed 0 Crash Cost cost associated with new duration 0 Normal Time normal duration of the activity 0 Normal Cost cost of the activity Normal Activity Time NT Normal Cost Crash Time Crash Cost Crash Cost in Weeks NC CT CC per Week A 3 2000 2 2400 B 4 3000 2 4000 C 2 1000 1 1500 D 3 500 E 5 800 3 1600 a Figure out the crash cost per week b What is the amount of time that you can crash activity E by Ex 3 The activity described by the following table are given for the Duplaga Corporation Activity Predecessors Time A 9 B A 7 C A 3 D B 6 Emu1m p1 3911 O a Draw the appropriate AON PERT diagram for Ed Duplaga s management team b Find the critical path C What is the project completion time Ex 4 McGee Carpet and Trim installs carpet in commercial offices Andrea McGee has been very concerned with the amount of time it took to complete several recent jobs Some of her workers are very unreliable A list of activities and their optimistic completion time the most likely completion time and the pessimistic completion time all in days for a new contract are given in the following table Activity a m b Predecessors A 3 6 8 B 2 4 4 C 1 2 3 D 6 7 8 C E 2 4 6 B D F 6 10 14 A E G 1 2 4 A E H 3 6 9 F I 10 11 12 G J 14 16 20 C K 2 8 10 H I a Determine the expected completion time and variance for each activity b Determine the total project completion time and the critical path for the project C Determine ES EF LS LF and slack for each activity d What is the probability that McGee Carpet and Trim will finish the project in 40 days or less Ex 5 What is the minimum cost of crashing the following project that James Walters manages at Ball State University by 4 days Activity Normal Crash Time Normal Cost Crash Predecessors Time Days Days Cost A 6 5 900 1000 B 8 6 300 400 C 4 3 500 600 D 5 3 900 1200 A E 8 5 1000 1600 C Module D Waiting Lines Queueing Waiting Lines 0 FIFO First In First Out 0 Unlimited Capacity Service Facility 0 Service rate is exponential gt time to provide service decreases as the amount of people increases Design of Service Facility 1 0000 single channel single phase 2 0000 0000 single channel multiphase gt ex drive thru 3 0000 multi channel single phase gt ex bank UM Bookstore multi channel multiphase gt ex driver s license bureau Ex 6 Ships arrive into a doc at a rate of 5 hours per 12 hour shift The following table shows the waiting time per ship depending on the amount of teams working The cost per hour for a ship is 1000 hour and each team is paid 6000 for their 12 hour shift Fill in the rest of the table and find out What the optimal number of teams would be of Teams gt 1 2 3 4 Arrival 5 5 5 5 Waiting Time 7 hours 4 hours 3 hours 2 hours Total Waiting Time Wait Cost Hr Service Cost Total Cost Service CostWaiting Cost Ex 7 UM Bookstore a What is the average time in the queue b How many customers are in the system C How many customers are in line d What is the average time in the system e How busy is the system f What is the probability of at least 2 people are in the system Ex 8 Sam Certo a Longwood vet is running a rabies vaccination clinic for dogs at the local grade school Sam can shoot a dog every 3 minutes it is estimated that the dogs will arrive independently and randomly throughout the day at a rate of one dog every 6 minutes according to a Poisson distribution Also assume that Sam s shooting times are expontially distributed Compute the following a The probability that Same is idle b The proportion of the time that Same is busy C The average number of dogs being vaccinated and waiting to be vaccinated d The average number of dogs waiting to be vaccinated e The average time a dog waits before getting vaccinated f The average amount of time a dog spends waiting in line and being vaccinated Ex 9 Automobiles arrive at the drive through Window at the downtown Urbana IL post office at the rate of 4 every 10 minutes The average service time is 2 minutes The Poisson distribution is appropriate for the arrival rate and service times are exponentially distributed a What is the average time a car is in the system b What is the average number of cars in the system C What is the average number of cars waiting to receive service d What is the average time a car is in the queue e What is the probability that there are no cars at the Window f What percentage of the time is the postal clerk busy 9 What is the probability that there are exactly 2 cars in the system Answers Ex 1 Ex 2 a AON b Critical Path C Project Variance 11 11 1 178 11 311 d go to z table and look under 05 on left side then to 07 on the top Find the number that it gives you for z 057 on z table 071566 which means there is a 7156 probability of nishing by week 16 e go to z table and look under 17 on left side Find the number that it gives you for z 17 on z table 095543 which means there is a 9554 probability of nishing by week 18 f gt gt 41089x 15 gt x1911 weeks b Critical Path A gt B gt E gt G gt I C Project Completion Time 34 Ex 4 Look at homework problem 3 14 for answer Ex 5 Activity Crash Cost per Period A tran Crashing D for 2 days 150day gt 300 C for 1 day 100day gt 100 E for 3 days 200day gt 600 Afor 1 day 100day gt 100 Total Cost of Crashing 1100 Ex 6 0f Teams gt 1 2 3 4 Arrival 5 5 5 5 Waiting Time 7 hours 4 hours 3 hours 2 hours Total Waiting 35 hours 20 hours 15 hours 10 hours Time Wait Cost Hr 35000 20000 15000 10000 Service Cost 6000 12000 18000 24000 Total Cost 41000 32000 33000 34000 Ex 8 0399 DO 0 VVVVV h V Ex 9 00 0399 VVVVV CD Optimal number of teams 2 Wq 8 minutes or 0133 hours Ls 4 customers at any point in time measure of performance Lq 32 customers important because there may not be enough physical space Ws 10 minutes or 0167 hours time you spent waiting and receiving service rho 80 gt 80 gt the system is busy 80 of the time and it is idle 20 of the time idle 1 rho gt 512 probability a 20 dogshour a 10 dogshour 1 gt 50 probability that Sam is idle gt 50 proportion of the time that Sam is busy Ls 1 dogs average of dogs being vaccinated and waiting to be vaccinated Lq 5 dogs average of dogs waiting to be vaccinated Wq 05 hours average time a dog waits before being vaccinated Ws 1 hours average time a dog spends waiting in line and being vaccinated a 24 carshour a 30 carshour Ws 167 hours OR 10 minutes average time a car is in the system Ls 4 cars average of cars in the system Lq 32 cars average of cars waiting to receive service Wq 133 hours OR 8 minutes average time a car is in the queue P0 1 2 gt 20 probability that no cars are at the window20 of the time the postal clerk is idle f 8 gt 80 probability that the postal clerk is busy80 of the time the postal clerk is busy 9 gt 64 512 128 gt There is a 128 probability that there are exactly 2 cars in the system Chapter 4 Factors that affect Accuracy of Forecast 1 991 0 Product Life Cycle Government Legislative Action Competition s Actions and Reaction Technological Innovation Market Trends Variations Forecasting Techniques Quantitative Techniques 1 91593 Naive Techniques Averages Moving Averages Weighted Moving Averages Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages Forecast Error Error At Ft gt Ideally it should be 0 but it rarely is Techniques Bias Avg Forecast Error gt measures the models tendency to over or under forecast 0 When bias is I Negative gt over forecast actual lt forecast I Positive gt under forecast actual gt forecast Mean Absolute Deviation MAD most popular 0 This technique says that it doesn t matter if you were over or under it just cares that you didn t hit the mark 0 MAD doesn t care about direction of error just the magnitude of error Mean Square Error MSE Mean Absolute Percent Error MAPE Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages with Trend Correction Regression Standard Error SE MEANING 1 standard deviation quotThere is a 68 chance that the actual forecast would be Coefficient of Correlation r Is between 1 lt r lt 1 Measures the strength of the relationship between 2 variables Coefficient of Determination Measures the extent in which a change in the dependent variable can be explained by a change in the independent variable Examples Period At Moving Avg Weighted MAD MA MAD Ft MA Ft WMA 1 5 2 4 3 6 4 7 5 5 6 a Use a 3period moving average to forecast for period 6 b Use a 2period weighted moving average to forecast for period 6 where the weights are 07 and 03 most recent and further away respectively C Which of these technologies are better on the basis of MAD Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages and Mean Squared Error Period At l 5 2 4 a b d e What is the new MSE Which of the two ways would you recommend Forecast with Trend Find the forecast with trend for period 5 Use EWMA given and Calculate the forecast for period 6 What is MSE C Use EWMA again but use instead Period At Ft Tt FIT l 4 2 6 3 9 4 12 5 Linear Regression Period X At y xy 1 2 2 5 3 6 4 10 5 12 a Find the linear regression model 0039 VVVVV What is the forecast for period 6 What is the forecast for period 10 d What is the standard error and What does it mean 9 What is the coefficient of correlation and coefficient of determination and What do they mean Seasonal Forecasting In 2014 the company eXpects to sell 80 units Develop the forecast for each quarter 201 1 2012 2013 Quarterly Seasonal Forecast Average Index Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Chapter 12 Economic Order Quantity EOQ TC Production Order Quantity Model t Qp production rate per day MaX Inventory gt Holding Cost gt Q a Chapter 3 Project Management Critical Path Method CPM AON Charts Forward Pass choose larger Backward Pass choose smaller EX 1 Activity Predecessor Activity Duration Weeks A 2 B 3 C A 2 D A B 4 E C 4 F C 3 G D E 5 H F G 2 a Create the AON chart b What is the critical path Project Evaluation Review Technique PERT gt What probability you ll nish at time X Use z chart Project variance is all of the variances of the critical path added up EX 2 Use predecessors from above Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic Expected Variance a m b Time A 1 2 3 B 2 3 4 C 1 2 3 D 2 4 6 E 1 4 7 F 1 2 9 G 3 4 1 1 H 1 2 3 a Create the AON chart b What is the critical path C What is the project variance d What is the probability that the project will be nished in 16 weeks 9 What is the probability that the project will be nished in 18 weeks f What if you need a 99 probability how many weeks would that be What if you have a project with slack of 6 weeks You have room so you can pull people from there to get critical tasks done on time Project Crashing shorten duration of a project at the least cost Crash Time new duration of an activity after it is crashed 0 Crash Cost cost associated with new duration 0 Normal Time normal duration of the activity 0 Normal Cost cost of the activity Normal Time Activity NT in Normal Cost Crash Time Crash Cost Crash Cost Weeks NC CT CC per Week A 3 2000 2 2400 B 4 3000 2 4000 C 2 1000 1 1500 D 3 500 E 5 800 3 1600 a Figure out the crash cost per week b What is the amount of time that you can crash activity E by EX 3 The activity described by the following table are given for the Duplaga Corporation Activity Predecessors Time A 9 B A 7 C A 3 D B 6 E B 9 F C 4 G E F 6 a Draw the appropriate AON PERT diagram for Ed Duplaga s management team b Find the critical path C What is the project completion time EX 4 McGee Carpet and Trim installs carpet in commercial of ces Andrea McGee has been very concerned with the amount of time it took to complete several recent jobs Some of her workers are very unreliable A list of activities and their optimistic completion time the most likely completion time and the pessimistic completion time all in days for a new contract are given in the following table Activity a m b Predecessors A 3 6 8 B 2 4 4 C 1 2 3 D 6 7 8 C E 2 4 6 B D F 6 10 14 A E G 1 2 4 A E H 3 6 9 I 10 11 12 G J 14 16 20 K 2 8 10 HI a Determine the expected completion time and variance for each activity b Determine the total project completion time and the critical path for the project C Determine ES EF LS LF and slack for each activity d What is the probability that McGee Carpet and Trim Will nish the project in 40 days or less EX 5 What is the minimum cost of crashing the following project that James Walters manages at Ball State University by 4 days Activity Normal Time Crash Time Normal Cost Crash Predecessors Days Days Cost A 6 5 900 1000 B 8 6 300 400 C 4 3 500 600 D 5 3 900 1200 A E 8 5 1000 1600 Module D Waiting Lines QueueingWaiting Lines 0 FIFO First In First Out 0 Unlimited Capacity Service Facility 0 Service rate is exponential gt time to provide service decreases as the amount of people increases Design of Service Facility 1 0000 single channel single phase 2 0000 0000 single channel multiphase gt eX drive thru 3 0000 multichannel single phase gt eX bank UM Bookstore multichannel multiphase gt eX driver s license bureau EX 6 Ships arrive into a doc at a rate of 5 hours per 12 hour shift The following table shows the waiting time per ship depending on the amount of teams working The cost per hour for a ship is 1000hour and each team is paid 6000 for their 12 hour shift Fill in the rest of the table and nd out What the optimal number of teams would be of Teams gt 1 2 3 4 Arrival 5 5 5 5 Waiting Time 7 hours 4 hours 3 hours 2 hours Total Waiting Time Wait CostHr Service Cost Total Cost Service CostWaiting Cost EX 7 UM Bookstore a What is the average time in the queue b How many customers are in the system C How many customers are in line d What is the average time in the system 9 How busy is the system f What is the probability of at least 2 people are in the system EX 8 Sam Certo a Longwood vet is running a rabies vaccination clinic for dogs at the local grade school Sam can shoot a dog every 3 minutes it is estimated that the dogs will arrive independently and randomly throughout the day at a rate of one dog every 6 minutes according to a Poisson distribution Also assume that Sam s shooting times are eXpontially distributed Compute the following a The probability that Same is idle b The proportion of the time that Same is busy C The average number of dogs being vaccinated and waiting to be vaccinated d The average number of dogs waiting to be vaccinated e The average time a dog waits before getting vaccinated f The average amount of time a dog spends waiting in line and being vaccinated EX 9 Automobiles arrive at the drivethrough window at the downtown Urbana IL post office at the rate of 4 every 10 minutes The average service time is 2 minutes The Poisson distribution is appropriate for the arrival rate and service times are exponentially distributed a What is the average time a car is in the system b What is the average number of cars in the system C What is the average number of cars waiting to receive service d What is the average time a car is in the queue e What is the probability that there are no cars at the Window f What percentage of the time is the postal clerk busy 9 What is the probability that there are exactly 2 cars in the system Answers Ex I Ex 2 a AON b Critical Path C Project Variance 1111 1 178 11 311 d go to ztable and look under 05 on left side then to 07 on the top Find the number that it gives you for z 057 on ztable 071566 which means there is a 7156 probability of finishing by week 16 e go to ztable and look under 17 on left side Find the number that it gives you for z 17 on ztable 095543 which means there is a 9554 probability of finishing by week 18 f gt gt 41089Xl5 gt xl9ll weeks b Critical Path A gt B gt E gt G gt I C Project Completion Time 34 Ex 4 Look at homework problem 3 4 for answer Ex 5 Activity Crash Cost per Period A muow Crashing D for 2 days 150day gt 300 C for 1 day 100day gt 100 E for 3 days 200day gt 600 A for 1 day 100day gt 100 Total Cost of Crashing 1100 Ex 6 of Teams gt 1 2 Arrival 5 5 Waiting Time 7 hours 4 hours 3 hours 2 hours Total Waiting 35 hours 20 hours 15 hours 10 hours Time Wait CostHr 35000 20000 15000 10000 Service Cost 6000 12000 18000 24000 Total Cost 41000 32000 33000 34000 Optimal number of teams 2 Ex 7 a Wq 8 minutes or 0133 hours b Ls 4 customers at any point in time measure of performance C Lq 32 customers important because there may not be enough physical space d Ws 10 minutes or 0167 hours time you spent waiting and receiving service 9 rho 80 gt 80 gt the system is busy 80 of the time and it is idle 20 of the time idle 1rho f gt 512 probability Ex 8 gt 20 dogshour gt I 0 dogshour a 1 gt 50 probability that Sam is idle b gt 50 proportion of the time that Sam is busy C Ls 1 dogs average of dogs being vaccinated and waiting to be vaccinated d Lq 5 dogs average of dogs waiting to be vaccinated e Wq 05 hours average time a dog waits before being vaccinated f Ws 1 hours average time a dog spends waiting in line and being vaccinated Ex 9 gt 24 carshour gt 30 carshour a Ws 167 hours OR 10 minutes average time a car is in the system b Ls 4 cars average of cars in the system C Lq 32 cars average of cars waiting to receive service d Wq 133 hours OR 8 minutes average time a car is in the queue 9 P0 1 2 gt 20 probability that no cars are at the Window20 of the time the postal f 9 clerk is idle 8 gt 80 probability that the postal clerk is busy80 of the time the postal clerk is busy gt 64512 128 gt There is a 128 probability that there are exactly 2 cars in the system Module B Linear Programming 4 Essential Characteristics 1 Objective Function looking to maximize or minimize something 2 Must have constraints 3 Alternate Solutions ex making 30 tables vs 20 tables and 10 chairs some docs saying they will only see Medicare patients 4 Specializing Ex 1 Tables Chairs Available HrsWeek Carpentry 4 hrs 3 hrs 240 hrs PaintVarnish 2 hrs 1 hr 100 hrs Pro t 70 50 How many tables and chairs should this company produce to maximize pro t Step 1 Formulate the Problem Let X1 of tables produced per week X2 of chairs produced per week Objective Function Maximize Pro t 70X1 50X2 Subject to Carpentry Constraints 4X1 3X2 5 240 hrs Paint Varnish Constraints 2X1 1X2 5 100 hrs X1 X2 3 0 Step 2 Graph the Constraints Step 3 Identify Feasible Region Step 4 Solve Problem Using the Comer Point Method Step 5 Determine the Optimal X1 X2 and Associated Pro t Step 6 Select the Solution that Optimizes your Objective Function Step 7 Calculate SlacksSurpluses Slack gt for 5 constraints Surplus gt for 3 constraints Step 8 Identify Binding Constraints

### BOOM! Enjoy Your Free Notes!

We've added these Notes to your profile, click here to view them now.

### You're already Subscribed!

Looks like you've already subscribed to StudySoup, you won't need to purchase another subscription to get this material. To access this material simply click 'View Full Document'

## Why people love StudySoup

#### "There's no way I would have passed my Organic Chemistry class this semester without the notes and study guides I got from StudySoup."

#### "I bought an awesome study guide, which helped me get an A in my Math 34B class this quarter!"

#### "I was shooting for a perfect 4.0 GPA this semester. Having StudySoup as a study aid was critical to helping me achieve my goal...and I nailed it!"

#### "Their 'Elite Notetakers' are making over $1,200/month in sales by creating high quality content that helps their classmates in a time of need."

### Refund Policy

#### STUDYSOUP CANCELLATION POLICY

All subscriptions to StudySoup are paid in full at the time of subscribing. To change your credit card information or to cancel your subscription, go to "Edit Settings". All credit card information will be available there. If you should decide to cancel your subscription, it will continue to be valid until the next payment period, as all payments for the current period were made in advance. For special circumstances, please email support@studysoup.com

#### STUDYSOUP REFUND POLICY

StudySoup has more than 1 million course-specific study resources to help students study smarter. If you’re having trouble finding what you’re looking for, our customer support team can help you find what you need! Feel free to contact them here: support@studysoup.com

Recurring Subscriptions: If you have canceled your recurring subscription on the day of renewal and have not downloaded any documents, you may request a refund by submitting an email to support@studysoup.com

Satisfaction Guarantee: If you’re not satisfied with your subscription, you can contact us for further help. Contact must be made within 3 business days of your subscription purchase and your refund request will be subject for review.

Please Note: Refunds can never be provided more than 30 days after the initial purchase date regardless of your activity on the site.