Monday, January 4, 2016
• World orders: created, sustained, declined, collapsed, reconstituted (1914-present) • The role of the US in this history and moving forward.
o It was a powerful force, especially before 1914, as a player in the World Order. This had consequences as to how the world works.
o Concern: what is the role of the US in foreign affairs?
• Prospects for World Order in the next 15 to 20 years.
o Forecasting the Future - National Intelligence Council Global Trends 2030; Kurlantzick, Democracy in Retreat
o The decline of democracy as a trend
The Future according to the NIC
• 4 Megatrends:
o Individual empowerment
o Diffusion of power
o Demographic changes
• ex. Decreasing population in Japan, also: populations who are unable to find jobs
o Food, water, energy issues
• Global Warming --> Effects the ability to sustain populations
• 6 Gamechangers
o Crisis prone global economy
• Changes in Chinese market effects the market and prices in the United States • The global economy seems less stable
o Governance gap If you want to learn more check out What is the meaning of sound?
• Citizens want demands solved
• Expressed dissatisfaction
• A government designed to performed in one way, and us expecting a different one
o Potential for increased conflict
o Wider scope of regional instability
• Ex. China tries to become the dominant power in East Asia
o New technologies
• We're at the beginning of the IT revolution
o The role of the United States
• Will the US decide that maintain global order is too costly?
• Will they take on a more active role or become isolated?
• It's choosing of how to act --> severe effects
• 4 Scenarios (ways the world may evolve)
o Stalled Growth
o Breakthrough Growth
o Worsening Inequalities If you want to learn more check out What does the millet system mean?
• The rich get richer, the poor get poorer --> growing inequality between the rich and the poor
o Non-state World
Global Trends 2030
• How do we forecast the future?
o What do we base our forecast on?
• What biases does it have?
• What does it emphasize?
• What does it leave out?
• What difference does it make? (so what?)
• Despite our concerns about the future, many of the issues of the global order today can be traced back to World War I and its aftermath.
• Key elements of the Global Order:
• rules, norms, expectations of how people will behave
• If there's no stability or predictability, the system will break down.
• This is what terrorists are trying to break down: attempting to make a society unpredictable
• It must seem to those of that order to be reasonably fair and appropriate • Today: free trade Don't forget about the age old question of Fermat's last theorem refers to what?
• Global norm: human rights; seen as legitimate
• Use of force to gain territory is seen as illegitimate
o Fairly stable
• persistence and adaptability over time
o Must be enforced (by some institution, country or countries, by socialization to the rules) [Power]
• Ex. United Nations, or a specific country We also discuss several other topics like What does multicellularity mean?
• Global order is usually created in the aftermath of major wars
o Or the collapse of a major power
Causes of Stress to Global Orders
• Successes within order
o Ex. China: large trading nation, rising power, their success will fundamentally move the world as a uni-polar system to tone that will have multiple powers in the system o Without the cooperation of China and India, the United States may not be as successful.
o Transforming the distribution of power
• Resistance to the order
o Various fundamentalisms, revolutionary movements
• Failure/collapse of states, institutions
• New kinds of issues
o Emergence of issues that were not anticipated
o Global warming, new diseases, etc.
• Costs of maintaining the order and who pays it - providing global collective goods A Challenge of the FutureWe also discuss several other topics like English common law refers to what?
• Us preeminent in global power since 1920, but played different roles • Era of US preeminence may be coming to an end
• How does the US respond to this?
• What happens to global order?
World Order and Disorder: Towards a Framework Wednesday, January 6, 2016
• The balance of power or the allocation of power get solidified within the order. • Critical junctions when world orders get made.
• The United States is the leading power in this system. The US is trying to manage the existing order.
• Issue: when new orders should be built? <-- Basis of macro-politics
• Two different meanings of order:
o An order as fact, an existing structure of power (stability, predictability) o As a series of values (legitimacy, justness, appropriateness)
• Key elements of order: predictability, stability, legitimacy, enforcement, efficiency (cost) • Example:
o The US as a political order. In terms of predictability, the US Constitution is probably going to continue, with some amendments. This is a predictable structure of government. We have been governed by one fundamental document. A stable basis of predictability. It has been adaptable enough that is have been able to overcome several challenges, suggesting its stability. It's claims to legitimacy are based on the Bill of Rights and the texts of the Constitution. Longevity: the system has existed for so long, it is seen as good --> legitimacy. Police and other various forces enforce the order. For the most part, the United States is a fairly efficient government. Compared to most other developed countries, the US can be viewed as efficient. There's no seemingly threat to be overturned. If you want to learn more check out What is a sensation?
o Difference between theory and reality. The United States does have the key elements of order. In certain situations, citizens may not see the legitimacy of the system. The order is incomplete; in that some people are treated differently than others.
• There is an uneven distribution of social processes.
o Nothing is absolutely equal. Different people have different abilities, can take advantage of opportunities.
• Distinction between theory and reality.
o Reality: The US is a free market economy system.
o Theory: It differs from what an economist sees as a free market. Large firms dominate and influence the market. There are supposed to be millions that influence, not just a few.
o Ex. Ferguson: In theory, people are given security under the law. In reality, this is not always true.
• Difference between a domestic and an international order.
o In a domestic order in the US, the Constitution lays out a hierarchy of power, ultimately the federal government is superior in law. There is a sovereign power over everyone else. There is a hierarchical distribution of power.
o In an international society, there is no hierarchy. This is a situation characterized by the term anarchy; there is no one on top to run things or who has the final say.
• How you build order is a fundamental problem
• Global order as a public good/ collective action problem
Public Goods and Collective Action
• Public Good: non-rivalrous and non-excludable goods
o My enjoyment of a good cannot be taken away and it does not affect some one else's enjoyment of the good.
o Ex. Clean air, public order, etc.
• At the basic level, public order seems to provide peace and security. The public order is not always purely a public good.
• Relatedly, common property [ocean fisheries] if no one owns it, all may exploit it. o The fish are not owned by anyone, so people go out fishing, resulting in a ecological collapse of fishing stocks.
o Attempt to solve the problem: Formal agreements to regulate fishing stocks. • Collective action problem: If a public good exists, why should anyone work to provide the public good?
o Ex. Why should anyone worry about clean air? If factories are burning pollutants, this has consequences for clean air. What is the incentive for making sure the air is clear if I get it any way?
o Solution: Unionization. Form an union of all the workers in the organization to act collectively to make sure this public good is available.
• Free rider problem: Most work to provide a collective good, but some do not. Some benefits, with no costs.
o Ex. 1952: US signed a security treaty with Japan. It was almost entirely unilateral. o Responsible stakeholder.
o Building of public order is a constant issue.
• Definition: A formal or informal arrangement that sustains rule (norm) - governed interaction among sovereign states and other international actors in their pursuit of individual and collective goals. (This is in theory)
• In reality, protection is provided more fully to greater powers. The order and power is not distributed evenly.
Global Order: Key Issues
• Who gets to make the rules?
o The dominate actors in the system, typically, get to set the rules.
• What ideas/ values motivate participants when they try to make the rules? o When these orders are created, they are also reflective with the ideas of the time. o Ex. 1815, Prussia was the weakest of the great powers. It's distribution of powers has changed throughout the system.
• What are the rules?
• How are benefits and costs distributed?
• How do rules get enforced?
o This is where the collective action problem emerges.
• How is the system sustained?
o What incentives are built into the order? Rewards and punishments.
o How are burdens distributed?
o How is the system shared?
o Ex. The US doesn't think other nations of the world are doing their part in maintaining order.
Overview of Evolution of Global Order
• Limited or non-total world order up to 1500.
• 1500-1914: an international order of sovereign states, with global norms and standards of civilization set by major European powers, especially after about 1750. Order dominated by security concerns, then economics.
• World War I (1914-1918): profoundly changes this order.
o Some of the great powers disappeared, were defeated or excluded --> changed the tenor of international society.
• 1919-1929: New World Order attempted in 1919; creates international governmental institutions; economics becomes a growing focus; beginnings of concerns about human rights.
• 1929-1939: Global Depression and the near collapse of the world order (Every country fending for itself, very weak international order).
• 1937/39-1945: World War II and plans to rebuild world order.
• 1945-1991: Attempts to rebuild world order- but quickly develops into a "Cold War" bipolar order.
• 1989-1991: collapse of communism
• 1991-2001: True global order/ globalization
• 2001-2008: Failed attempts of US unilateralism (9/11 terrorist attacks) • 2008-present: Global Financial Crisis and ?
Causes of Breakdowns of Global Orders
• Success of actors in that order: rising powers.
o Ex. The rise of Germany from 1870 to 1914, was a success. It rose within the rules of the game. Yet the creation of this powerful new actor, was not satisfied with its position in the order. Tensions were created in the system, possibly leading to war.
o Rise of China and rise of India --> their economic powers, larger populations and new successes, they won't be satisfied with their position in the system.
• Rejection in the system: states, groups don't want it
o North Korea doesn't fundamentally accept the rules of the game of the system. o ISIS doesn't accept the rules and they are a threat.
• Failure: the system can't handle problems, constituent elements fall apart. o 1990s, Somalia fell apart as a state. There was no governance. It was considered a failed state. Also during this decade, Yugoslavia broke up, and this lead to a challenge to the order.
o Recently, Sudan split into two separate states.
• Emerging Issues: system faces unimagined challenges
o Classic Example: Global Warming, Massive Migration, emerging diseases (HIV/AIDS, various types of bird flu, Ebola) In these situations, the international system has trouble controlling it.
• Inefficiency/Costs: Costs outweigh benefits
o Great Britain tried to restore the international system in-between WWI and WWII. But Britain came out of WWI deeply in debt of the US and they failed to uphold the system.
o US paying lots of money to fight the Taliban. Possible situation in which the costs are inefficient.
• The Dominant Power undermines or exempts itself from the rules, or it absents itself. o The US may decide that the costs of bearing these burdens may be too much, and not worth it.
The World in 1914: States, Wars, Markets, and Ideas Friday, January 8, 2016
• A world of states (colonies)
o Much of the world (Africa and Asia especially) were colonies of European powers. o Even many of those independent states had their sovereignty constrained. • A Eurocentric world order
o Independent states were mostly in Europe.
o Kissinger explains this in Chapters 1 and 2.
o European nations were dominant in the system.
• Ideologies of Western/white domination
o Ideas of social Darwinism
o Sense of a civilized mission; Europe nations making "backwards" nations civilized • Establish standards of civilization set by European powers
• Rising classical liberalism
o Limited roles of government in the economy, growing sense of individual rights and liberties, promises of personal freedom from the action of the government, people weren't unjustly or arbitrarily treated by the state
• Dynamic, accelerating technological change
o Middle class society beginning to appear
o Common: telephone, electric light, mass production of model-T---> mass consumption of automobiles, etc.
• Growing international trade and investment
• Large, powerful standing armies and navies
o Society was mobilization for war efforts.
• No major European war since 1815
• A system under stress.
o Germany had succeeded.
o Austrian-Hungry Empire was under severe stress.
o Russian Empire under pressure.
o Break point between parts of history.
States and War
• Kinds of states
o International system was overwhelmingly constituted by states, there were very few NGOs or world organizations.
o States were powerful and influential
• Rise of ideas of citizenship, mass identities
o Most of the world's people were living in colonial situations or quasi-colonial situations.
o States that did have full independence, such as US and Britain, the idea of nationalism began to appear.
o Rising ideas about what it means to be a citizen of a state
o Mass identities began to emerge
• Ex. "I'm an American", as opposed to "I'm from Seattle"
• Nations were preparing for war.
• War: Ideology of the offensive on land
o Whoever goes to war first, will one. The ideology of the offensive.
• Who could get their soldiers on the train and to the fight, in time and as fast as possible, was a fundamental thing that states did.
• Perceived advantage of being first.
• One of the major contributing/facilitating factors of WWI
• Battleships as the market of great powers status (not for long)
o Having a battleship was one of the signs that a nation was a world power. o WWI: advent of the submarine, beginning of seeing aircrafts carrying bombs.
• This appeared in politics, economics, and society.
• It's a claim about the role of individuals in society.
• Reaction against aristocratic privilege and church domination (starting in 1500s). • In politics, a state rose to democratization, moving slowly towards universal, male, suffrage and basic individual rights (the power of the state/crown needed to be constrained).
o Limited government.
o Checks on the power of the ability of the ruler to act arbitrarily.
o Move towards a constituted monarchy.
• In economics, private ownership and market exchange (the breakdown of monarchical and aristocratic privilege). Specialization.
o With the rise of liberal economics, more and more of ones life was purchased in the market.
• You would work to gain a salary to then purchase goods and services, rather than be self-sufficient.
• In society, creating the idea of relative individual autonomy: the claims of politics, religion, or anything else were limited. A personal sphere remained to the person (adult male). o Personal/Private sphere
o The claims of religion, politics, etc. was only part of what was having influence on individuals.
• Society should be governed by law, increasingly formed by the consent of the governed. o Shouldn't be set by precedent or church. The rulers of the people decide the rules and they should be universally and equally applied.
• Enlightenment: the basic "laws" of nature, governance, and economy could be discerned. We can learn and master our environments.
o The scientific method emerged.
o Prove understanding of nature, humans, and the natural world.
o To make the world a better place.
Markets and Economics
• Market economics, private ownership
o Not a lot of state ownership
• The difference between a powerful country and weak country, was the industrial might. • Industrial vs. non-industrial.
• Industrialization gave a nation the power,
• Comparative advantage
o Calls for people to specialize, and divide labor, then exchange o Ex. In Freiden, pp. 30-32, 77-79 and see example on powerpoint slide for lecture. • Country B is much more productive.
• If each specializes in its own greater comparative advantage, more is produced and everyone is better off.