POL402 Latino Politics Essay Outlines
POL402 Latino Politics Essay Outlines 402
Popular in Latino Politics
Popular in Political Science
This 7 page Study Guide was uploaded by Jolie Spiegelman on Wednesday February 10, 2016. The Study Guide belongs to 402 at University of Miami taught by Dr. Uscinski in Spring 2016. Since its upload, it has received 9 views. For similar materials see Latino Politics in Political Science at University of Miami.
Reviews for POL402 Latino Politics Essay Outlines
Report this Material
What is Karma?
Karma is the currency of StudySoup.
You can buy or earn more Karma at anytime and redeem it for class notes, study guides, flashcards, and more!
Date Created: 02/10/16
1. Compare and contrast the Latino electorates across the country using the Sanchez text and the lectures. Use examples from the lectures, readings, and guest speakers. Though the impact of Latinos is felt across the country, each state varies in both its Latino population, and their political affiliations. The presence of latino voters in a variety of swing states has forced politicians to address the concerns of the latino electorates, to varying degrees of success. The number of Hispanic eligible voters has grown at one of the fastest clips of any group over the past eight years and is projected to be 40% higher in 2016 than in 2008, according to a new Pew Research Center analysis of government data. Sanchez provides an intimate look into the makeup of the electorate in the most important states, highlighting the importance of the latino voters across the country. With the Latino population growing, white population shrinking, and black electorate overperforming, the GOP must refigure their platform and devise new strategies for appealing to minority voters if they want to have a shot at the white house., I. Colorado (swing state) A. Growing Latino population in CO, and subsequently increasing influence of Latinos in electoral politics 1. Used to be a red state, but Sanchez notes that this increase in latino population provides the background for the “purpling” of the state. 2. Probably will shift from purple to blue soon as a result in high participation of latino electorate in the 2012 election B. Latinos accounted for 20.9% of the population in CO in 2012, and are expected to reach ⅓ of population of Colorado by 2040 (Sanchez) 1. 40% of colorados population growth over the last decade is due to the immigration of latinos. Majority of these immigrants are from Mexico (75%) 2. Latinos typically affiliate with Democrats, have liberal policy views C. Latinos are politically important in Colorado as well, because 46% of Latinos in are eligible to vote, slightly higher than 42% of Latino pop nationally D. As of 2012, Sanchez notes that latinos make up 13.75 of Colorado’s electorate!! E.Immigration 1. Recent history with immigtation policy and politics in CO marked by both antiimmigrant sentiment and small victories for Latinos 2. 2008/2012 immigration issues solidified Latino support for Obama (87% support) Romney and his selfdeportation policy II. New Mexico swing state, and one of the states with highest latino population A. Latinos have achieved high levels of political power relative to Latino’s in other states B. Hispanic population was essential to Obama’s success in NM in 2008 o Latinos accounted for 41% of the vote and 69% of these voted for obama o McCain would have won if it had not been for Hispanic and other minority voters C. 2012 election immigration was deciding factor large latino support for Obama because of his immigration reform o Romney promised to veto DREAM Act alienated Latinos o While obama signed exec order in June 2012 giving temporary legal status to many undocumented child immigrants o BUT, New Mexicans who themseleves are far removed from the immigration experience because many hispanics in NM are citizens D. Growth of Hispanics in NM electorate In 2012, Latinos accounted for 37% of electorate (Sanchez) Increasing support for Democrats by Latinos… not really a battleground state because leans Democrat now. Hispanics have high acitve participation rates. E. Demographics + longstanding participation has resulted in latinos having political power and leverage in contemporary politics III. California Largest latino popluation (in 2011, well over ⅓ of California population) A. In 2012, Latinos in CA went to polls in record numbers and overwhelmingly voted for Obama over Romney a. Latinos played a key role in keeping CA a democratic state b. Partisanship only played minor role in voting behaviors of Latinos in 2012, as many Republicans crossed party lines to vote for Obama B. Because CA is home to largest Latino population in US, latinos have huge potential to shape political outcomes. a. Latinos in the state (as well as Latinos elsewhere) were often referred to as “the sleeping giant” bc of their failure to transform their demographic growth into a political advantage. b. Latinos in California have high turnout, so no longer the case B. CA has 55 delegates in Electoral College winning CA is therefore HUGE in general election because can bring candidate to the 270 electoral college votes needed C. Not really a swing state…Sanchez notes that no Republican presidential candidate has won the state since 1992 D. Demographics o Latinos have turned CA into a majorityminority state o Demographic growth has led to an increase in size of CA’s Latino electorate o Voting strength has increased # of Latino elected officials in state F. Increase in Latino participation Between 2000 and 2008, voter turnout increased from 1.6 mill to nearly 3 mill Immigration was 2nd most important issue behind economy… this is because CA has largest number of undocumented immigrants 54% of Latinos in CA in 2012 knew someone who is undocumented IV. Ohio (swing state, but low latino population) A. 3.1% of states residents identified as Latino a. Only 0.7% of country’s Latino population reside in Ohio, but the ones who do are very important to state’s growth B. Quickly growing latino electorate… while Ohio’s population grew 1.6% from 20002010, the Latino population in Ohio grew 63.4%. Mexicans make up largest subgroup of latinos, but also one of the most diverse in terms of representation (⅓ from puerto rico) Young voters C. Not a huge latino population, but with 47% of all Latinos in state being eligible to vote, Ohio has 13th highest percentage of eligible Latino voters in country D. Latinos in OH constitute a small but quickly growing segment of state’s population influence will likely increase, but it will grow more partisan leaning democrat V. Virginia A. Hispanic electorate not as diverse, but growing quickly (especially Norther VA) B. Has experience antiimmigrant legislation, similar to that in Arizona C. Latinos in VA were 8% of state population in 2012 and by 2020 they are expected to be over 11% of total VA population! a. VA Hispanic population grew by 92% between 2000 and 2010 (Sanchez) b. About ⅓ of Virginia Hispanics are eligible to vote D. Demographic changes mean that latinos could play a decisive role in VA politics IF they turnout to vote, and if Latinok citizens vote on behalf of the noncitizen latinos. a. Immigration issue has unified the VA Hispanic electorate, may mobilize them E. DIFFERENT than other latino states because VA Hispanic’s support for Obama was modest in comparison to Latino support for him in other states o Only FL’s Latino voters were less enthusiastic about Obama’s reelction VI. North Carolina swing state A. Latinos are relatively new in the state, but state is growing in both numbers and in political significance B. In 1990s, North Carolina was hotspot for immigration, and from 20002010, Latino population increasd 111% (Sanchez) a. Over 50% of latinos are citizens in NC, but equally as many are foreign b. 61% mexican c. Because of this, Immigration is more important than jobs to NC Latino’s B. 8.4% of population was Latino as of 2010, so state with 11th largest latino population a. Latinos support many of the small cities across the state B. Similar to VA, emerging Latino presence in NC has amplified size and influence of state’s Latino electorate C. # of Latinos registered to vote increased more than tenfold from 2004 to 2012 a. In both NC and VA, young latino voters are crucial, changing dialouge about comprehensive immigration reform. b. While Latinos make up less than 3% of state’s registered voters, number registered has increased from 10,000 in 2004 to 113,000 in 2012 F. Elections latino vote can swing the state republican or dem a. 2008 Latinos played pivotal role in Obama’s victory. 1st time since 1976 a Dem won b. Romney won in 2012 by narrow margin close election signifies importance of Latino’s VII. Florida most important battleground state for 2016 A. Florida has 29/270 of electoral college votes.. And a lot of latinos a. Sanchez calls Florida the “linchpin” of Latino power b. FL has the most hispanic voters (cubans is largest but soon changing), and in this election if Florida goes democrat, then Republicans have no shot. c. In 2010 Latinos constituted 22.5% of FL population. Projected to be 46.5% in 2020…. Between 220.127.116.11 of these were eligible voters in 2012. B. California, Texas, and NY also have significant amount of Latinos, and lots of electoral college votes up for grabs BUT Hispanic vote in Florida is different than Hispanic vote nationally…. Largest electorate is Cubans, and Cubans are more conservative because they want to see the fall of Castro Florida’s Latinos are less likely to know an undocumented immigrant C. FL Latino electorate as a whole is still a stronghold for Dems Puerto Rican electorate is growing and this could lead to more stable advantage for Dems 2nd largest Puerto Rican population next to NY. D. Cubans born in Cuba tend to be single issue voters, siding with Republicans, but this is changing with new generation of CubanAmericans E. Latino vote explains why Obama won FL in 2008/2012 → held hispanic swing Republicans have problem with the latino vote, especially in Florida, so this will definitely impact the election. F. According to Gross and Barreto in the Latinos and the 2012 election, Florida and Colorado were essential elements of the Latino Electoral College voting power… crucial o Florida has a high percentage of registered Latino voters, 29 electoral votes, and it diverse in partisanship, so is one of the most important to the Latino Power. G. FL is a “relative bystander” in the immigration reform debate CONCLUSION other notable states with latino influence include Nevada, Arizona, 2. Which of the guests, in your opinion, had the most astute opinion regarding the 2016 election? Defend your answer with examples from the readings. In my opinion, Simon Rosenberg of the NDN (new democratic network) had the most astute opinion… I. This election is different from others A. Believed that this election is different because there is a new american voter 1. Rise of nativism, directly related to the declining economy (Justin Sayfie) 2. People feel the system is rigged, and it is not benefiting them, so shift to more extreme views on both sides. B. Rubio had good chance, but the party was not ready for him/he was too young 1. Will be back in future races C. Focus will remain on FL, VA, OH, Michigan, Wisconsin, PA 1. We can expect a VP pick from one of these states 2. Swing states will determine race again, so expect big focus 3. nine states—Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin—that represent 115 out of a total 538 electoral votes could be tossups (battleground states in general) II. Trump/Hillary A. Hillary is not popular with millennial voters, but Rosenberg doesn’t have a good answer for this → could hurt her in the general, because campain didn’t adjust their message to engage millennials early enough. B. Surprisingly not that critical of Trump doesn’t agree that Trump is “un American”, but rather his racial bigotry is American at its core C. Rise of Trump and his hateful policies 1. Trump is hitting on frustration that American public has with American dream 2. Trump deals with frustration in a direct manner, doesn’t use political jargon 3. Tump in general election → latinos could be problem for him 1. McCaom (sanchez book) notes the trend in declining Latino support for Republican presidential nominees 2. 75% of latinos have negative perception of Trump II. Most accurate predictions People say Trump/Clinton would be ideal because Clinton would win easily, but Rosenberg says that Trump does have a chance, we shouldn’t underestimate Rosenberg is doubtful about brokered Convention… already in March predicted that Trump would be well on his way to the nomination o With 5 most recent wins, including a huge victory in NY, PA, Marlyand, will be hard to deny Trump the nomination, despite all the talk of brokered convention 3. How has the issue of immigration affected the 2016 race and the Latino electorate so far? Use examples from the lectures, readings, and guest speakers. Immigration has both shaped the dialogue of the 2016 Presidential race, and immigration has also shaped voting patterns… Both immigration policy, and immigrant voters I. Impact of Immigrants A. Undocumented immigrants total nearly 12 million, with 59% from Mexico 1. Latino immigrant population is growing → in 1990 there were 20 mil, in 2010 there was an estimated 50.5 mill and by 2030 there is a projected 80 mill B. Sanchez says that Republicans alienate the fastestgrowing demographic group and electoral bloc in the country…. Could change general election outcome C. Immigration is a crucial issue in the 2016 election. Democrats know this and are taking advantage of it, while Republicans, like Trump, are alienating immigrants and Hispanics because of their antiimmigration stance. II. Immigration policy A. Immigration has emerged as a dominant domesticpolicy issue on the 2016 campaign trail. B. According to a Pew Research Center poll conducted this spring, more than 60 percent of GOP voters believe that immigrants today are more of a burden than a benefit on our society… something needs to be done (extremes on the right) C. immigration touches on 4 most controversial aspects of US culture(Politics, $, Race, Sex), so bound to be important D. Many liberals in recent years have begun to advocate for policies like a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants as well as opportunities for undocumented students to receive instate tuition and drivers’ licenses. II. Politics of immigration A. Candidates policy towards immigration can make/break an election → Sanchez notes that in 2008, Obama’s promise of comprehensive immigration reform helped him defeat Hillary B. Immigration reform is seen as most important issue, but Latinos rank economy, education, other issues above immigration reform C. immigrants have tended to trend solidly left in their voting patterns in recent decades → provides context to why policies are increasingly becoming proimmigration/legalization on the left D. Trump’s views on immigration have isolated the Latino electorate 1. If Republicans (Trump) want a shot at winning election, need to build Hispanics (and immigration) into their campaign 2. Sanchez notes the trend in declining Latino support for Republican presidential nominees → already this trend after 2008 and 2012, so these extreme views on immigration are not likely to help the party’s popularity
Are you sure you want to buy this material for
You're already Subscribed!
Looks like you've already subscribed to StudySoup, you won't need to purchase another subscription to get this material. To access this material simply click 'View Full Document'