POL 203 midterm notes to study
POL 203 midterm notes to study POL 203
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Date Created: 02/23/16
EricksonKery International Relations Notes Spring 2016 1 EricksonKery • Rule #2 : Lead with logic, follow with history Notes 1 — 12 January 2016 • Rule #3 : Use arguments and Sentences counterarguments • Rule #1: If you must break these rules to get your point across, do it • Rule #4 : Use evidence Conclusions • Rule #2: Every sentence is a story • Rule #1 : Restate, rereference • Rule #3: Write like a real person, write like you speak on a good day • Rule #4: Active v. Passive (and active is Notes 2 – 14 January 2016 Theories much better) • Theory makes judgement possible • Rule #5: Simple subjects (person, state, singular subject) • Theory is good for explanation and prediction • Rule #6: Keep subjects and verbs “intimate;” • Facts are not theory, how they connect is • A theory isn ’t an explanation close together • Rule #7: Great verbs separate okay writers • A theory isn't a correlation from great writers Correlation means things happen at the • Rule #8: Be vivid, concrete, and accurate same time when using metaphors • All theories start with assumptions • Rule #9: Air on the short side for sentences • Theories must be falsifiable • Rule #10: Stress position is the last part of the • Theories have tendencies sentence, paragraph, paper, etc. Make a • There is no such thing as a theoryless world lasting impression Methods Paragraphs • A method is an approach you use to solve a • Rule #1 : The “packet” any given point goes problem in; thesis statements are key • Positivism is just social science • Rule #2 : Connectors and how words are Everyone is postpositivist oriented is very important • Epistemology is the theory of learning: how • Rule #3 : See things from people’s substantive do you know what you know? and stylistic points of view • Ontology is the theory of existence: what is • Rule #4 : No wasted movements, words; your theory of “is” or “to be”? What exists? people are busy Building theories Introductions • Causation: one thing causing another • Rule #1 : Have a good title to convince people • A story is the line between a cause and on the fence about reading your work correlation : Introductions should have questions, • Rule #2 • Proximate is near in time, profound is problems, and/or “buts.” imbedded in the past and the actions of the • Rule #3 : “So what?” ; answer your questions, past address your problems Historians deal in proximate causes, • Rule #4 : Arguments are key: I argue that… political scientists deal in profound (you then have 13 sentences to get to the The two can coexist point); these things are important for these Variables reasons • Independent variable = cause • Rule #5 : Organize information • Dependent variable = effect Groundwork (Body Paragraphs) IV 1+ IV 2+ IV 3=> DV • Rule #1 : Scope / what is everything Testing Theory conceptually about and why 2 EricksonKery • • Path dependency: where you begin helps Helps us change minds instead of cracking determine where you end up skulls • History plays a critical role in where we are • Spares us from errors today • What separates human beings is the frequency • Logic of the levels of errors • New, true, and nontrivial 3 main arguments: • Doubleblind randomized placebos are the ‣ #1, perversity: trying to do “x,” but best way to test theories you end up doing “y,” otherwise • Science is wasteful and expensive known as a perverse outcome. ? You try to end poverty, buy you Notes 3 – 19 January 2016 end up increasing it. Good Housekeeping ‣ #2, futility: trying to do “x,” but in • All science is messy, but it ’s the best way to trying to do “x” you will end up test theory • getting zero, so what’s the point? Social sciences ? You try to end poverty, but you Quantitative v. qualitative simply can ’t and won’t. • Common pitfalls ‣ jeopardy: not only are you aiming Ceteris Paribus: Everything must be #3, for “x,” but you are a menace for all equal in an experiment except for one other variables, including “x.” changing variable, however… ? You try to end poverty, but you ‣ This is impossible Apples to oranges comparisons are won ’t, plus you’ll fuck everything “ else up too. generally bullshit” • Waltz ’s 3 images People often relate their own life and what causes it experiences to their studies, which is how War ‣ People (human nature; i.e. Hitler) as errors arrive causes Anyone can cherrypick data and find the ‣ States (entire governments; i.e. answers they want … don't do that Germany) as causes Post hoc, ergo propter hoc : after, ? Its impossible to be completely therefore, because convinced by one person. For • Everything causes everything else • Confidence intervals example, Obama may want to get rid of guns in America, but he 95% is the traditional threshold can’t do that at the drop of a hat. You are convinced you are correct 95% Charisma and rhetoric don’t get of the time, however … you that far. 5% of the time you will get false ? States can ’t control the whole negatives/positives world either. For example, the • Moderate paranoia is needed to tease out U.S. wants the entire world to be causation Your goal in life is to say/do things that are new, true, and nontrivial 1 War is the variable used here, can be replaced Question everything Have skepticism and openmindedness with trade, or other variables of international Origins relations. 3 EricksonKery ? democratic and capitalist, but it Mobilized force level ? Bush ’s approval rating won’t happen. ? Laws passed ‣ “ The system” as the cause ? ? The distribution of power and Use levels of analysis: ✦ IV 1 = Bush ideas ✦ IV 2 = public opinion ? The problem is that the System is ✦ = terrorist organization vague IV 3 ? Can tell big, recurrent patterns, Notes 4 – 21 January 2016 but lacks specific details • Introduction • Morton ’s multiples: every invention was invented twice Power defines political science Whoever has to most power believes they There always multiple innovators are the best (Darwin, Einstein etc., weren ’t the only people working on the things they found) Anarchy as a concept • Power • Nonstates (like the EU and the UN) also Power defines international politics have influence in world policy ’t • Evidence is unreliable Essentially contested subject: people don • The images” as reversed in terms of war agree, which makes it tricky “ Power isn ’t… War can drive other levels of analysis ‣ Outcomes (just because you win doesn ’t ‣ First reverse: war, or the threat of war make you more powerful) causes changes in psychology (i.e. ‣ A lump (power isn ’t a physical entity; PTSD) how fungible is power?) ‣ Second reverse: war, or the threat of … war drives change in domestic Power is ‣ Fungible institutions (i.e. nations copy one ‣ Impossible to really see another after successes are seen) The faces of power ‣ Third reverse: war, or the threat of ‣ Power is the ability to get someone do war drives changes distribution of something that they wouldn ’t otherwise power (i.e. countries are straightup do destroyed) ‣ The ability to set the agenda • “ The images” as reversed in terms of trade ‣ Getting people to want what you want First reverse: Depression or the threat of them to want depression changes psychology. Power is thought to be material, but in Second reverse: Depression or the threat actuality is psychological of depression changes the outcomes of Power = skill + will + capability given states. (i.e. how the depression always relevant Power is helped Hitler rise to the top) • Anarchy Third reverse: Depression, or the threat of Anarchy is a fact of life; undisputed depression causes a change in the The debate is over the consequences distribution of power. Million dollar question: What is the logic of • Show cause and effect, and be nonbias anarchy? Show logic and evidence A lot more cooperation between states Put personal views to the side rather than within them Example: “America’s responce to 9/11” ‣ Dependent variable: responce to 9/11 4 EricksonKery “world state” because of Notes 5 – 21 January 2016 No such thing as a • Where does IR thought come from? anarchy • The future is different from the past Anarchy isn ’t chaos • ‣ Its an ordering policy Arguments: (1) necessity is the mother of invention (2) behavior is proportionate to Anarchy is a world without hierarchy power, unchecked power checks itself (3) Spiral model: hostility spirals up ( “tragic insecurity checks (4) why does theory change treadmill”) over time (innovation in though deal with new Logics of anarchy problems) ‣ Realism : anarchy causes security • Optimal wealth + competition > optimal dilemma, with no escape besides the insecurity + IR thought highly unlikely “world state”. Realists • Logic of arguments are the pessimists of the bunch. States Intelligence is randomly distributed are powered by fear, honor, and greed. Everyone wants to just be safe. States Big imbalances in knowledge treasure their autonomy. Fear relative Randomness at the micro level Content of great ideas = basic argument gains. Deterrents and diplomacy are the only solution; good militaries and good Rate of content change = marginal value diplomats. Continuity and caution. added over time ‣ Liberalism : same assumptions as Distribution argument: necessity means a lot of things ( necessity I: imminent danger, realism. The actors matter more than the environment; the internal state traits with no saving; necessity II: a danger, with matter most. Three solutions to create a saving as a possibility, thus they work with world without war: 1) democracy 2) others; necessity III: very small danger very trading 3) international solutions. far away, thus people stop working as hard, leads to failure, e.g. Rome got slack, empire Optimism, change, and progress is the motto for liberals. High policy is fell) defense policy. • Theory is collective problem solving at the ‣ Constructivism : anarchy is what states highest level make of it. • Content is driven by threats • Security dilemma External threats and internal dangers Insecurity has patterns The rise of modern economy changes this • The devil is the details Rate of change argument Causal priority There is no constant rate of change • Realists Profound cause of change #1 is climate and disease Offense/defense balance Nongreat powers Profound cause of change #2 (economic) is • Constructivists uneven growth rates, some states grow Idea entrepreneurs faster than others Miss most politics before 1998 • Proximate causes of change • Conclusion Basically innovation Power is will plus skill plus capability War makes the state and the state makes Anarchy is the lack of third party hierarchy war Anarchy is the central idea behind Humankind evolves with humans international relations Technical innovation is a cause Anarchy is a fact of life Strategy is a cause 5 EricksonKery ‣ What you want depends on what you Institutional: bureaucratic innovations have • The international system becomings increasingly ‣ People are insatiable, which is a bad global thing in terms of war The world is a global system around 1500 ‣ “The Wheel of Fortune:” when you start The renaissance is exciting because there at the bottom and move to the top, you are new global networks; growth of world become complacent and a bit of an networks asshole (i.e.: Xerxes) Sustained growth ‣ Herodotus ’ tale is a cautionary one for Competition starts heating up, drives the the greeks: “look what happened to the rate of change Persians… you’re next” ‣ • First ancient predecessor is outside of the west Shifts in power change behavior China and Indians lead innovation ‣ Enter Thucydides: writes about 1000’s of years until the west catches up Peloponnesian War in a frank manner, Kautyla: “Indian Machiavelli” but way he does not romanticize it before Machiavelli’s time ? War is a plague Sun Tsu: says things similar to western ? Scientific, objective writing philosophies only hundreds of years prior ? No talk of pain/suffering • Ancient western predecessors ? The Greeks Women never appear in narrative ? Brackets politics off from other ‣ Balance of power in Greece (city human events states) ? ‣ Sparta v. Athens v. Thebes v. Corinth Theory is clear: good structure Greek power is on the ascent ? Power has its own distinct “Wheel of fortune” as described by dynamics ? Threat drives unity Herodotus If one power is rising, all others are ? Politics is about profound causes inherently falling Plato Religion is important, in interpenetrated ‣ ’s mentor with the sciences Aristotle ‣ Teacher to Alexander the Great Plays were structured by debates Aristotle Professional philosophers: Silphates ‣ People are political animals (Heraclides: “war is the father of all things”) • The fathers of science ‣ People voice groups to be self sufficient ‣ People don’t trust outsiders The first science we have is history • The Romans (Herodotus) Why Rome? Why does war happen? First question of ‣ “Good real estate in a bad science neighborhood” Herodotus tells the story of his travels Inclusive culture trying to uncover the secrets of war by ‣ talking to people around Greece Good at assimilating foreigners Romans lose battles, but they never lose What causes war? wars ‣ Revenge cycle ‣ Downward spiral Really good at logistics, roads, and the boring stuff ‣ Revenge escalates until exhaustion and Warriors vs. Soldiers: soldiers win because defeat discipline beats valor 6 EricksonKery ‣ and The Discourses: two ’s The Prince 390 BCE: Rome gets sacked, and Rome books that contains all that he knows power takes off (highwater mark of political science ‣ Winning streak ensues for the next couple of centuries) Roman Thinkers ‣ Only useful western thinker of his “ ‣ Polybius explores why Rome is #1 time” ? Greeks thought Rome got lucky, ‣ “You think ethics is intentions… Polybius calls bullshit Intentions don’t matter, consequences ? Luck is proportionate to skill do!” ? Mixed constitution: governmental ‣ Less moralistic, less religious (the forms have weakness church is wrong, and they take ? Partial monarchy, partial advantage of you) democracy ‣ Not here to tell us the [weather] should ? Everything is approved by the be, but tells us how to deal with the people [weather] when it happens ? Incredibly democratic ‣ Politics is a different world that the ? Threat causes unity religious world ? ‣ “What makes you armed or unarmed is Civil wars continue because if the enemies aren ’t inside, they’re in between your ears” outside ‣ Democracy and Republics are the best • No medieval thought is seminal things humans have done political The exception is Dante (unified world Francesco Guicciardini system in politics and religion) • The Dutch influence the British who influenced ‣ Separation of church and state the United States • • Arabian thought The Low Countries Alfa Rabii Conflict helped create the rise of modern Caldun (universal history; theory of social maritime nations invented not construct; the theory of civilizations being Economic institutions were conquered and said timeline) spontaneously created Arabic thinkers are influential World trade and global finance (the Dutch) The Italians didn ’t cite the Arabs, but they 1648 : the birth of the modern system, which took many of their thoughts creates the modern state • The Italians English civil war, anglodutch wars (three) Why Italy? 1688: Glorious Revolution (The Dutch take ‣ Potential great power over) ‣ Geography and trade The low countries define themselves in ‣ Trade brings in wealth, culture, and opposition to France and Spain exposes Italy to competition Hobbes ‣ Innovate on long distance trade ‣ The Leviathan ‣ A state of nature, people are machines Notes 6 – 28 January 2016 in a highly codified world • Italy, cont’d. ‣ The British are “nasty and short” Machiavelli ‣ Anarchy is horrible and you must ‣ Historian, poet, playwright submit to hierarchy ‣ World ’s best political historian and ‣ Competition for power is nasty theorist 7 EricksonKery ‣ afford them and they can afford others, What drives humans: fear, honor, and and this transfers around countries greed • Publias (in America) ‣ “ Sooner or later the strongest man has to go to sleep, and in his sleep his head The Federalist Papers Republics can be big! will be cut off” Federalist #10 by Madison Spinosa ‣ Dutch • Kant ‣ German (Prussian) Influences thinkers Ethical Theory Locke ‣ Left his finger prints on the U.S. Dense philosophy The Democratic peace theory: a world ‣ Optimistic where everyone is in a democracy is a ‣ Humans are virtuous anarchists world of peace ‣ Protect property! ‣ Republics have representatives, Founder of liberalism Democracies have everyone who votes • The Enlightenment • IR Theories come from necessity Britain and France due to hegemonic bids Early industrialization • Behavior is proportional to power • Theory changes due to innovation and French Revolution questions the legitimacy environmental shifts of ruling over people Montesquieu • New advances in theory happen all the time • Adam Smith: “Division of labor is driven by the ‣ founder of liberalism extent of the marker” the more specialized the ‣ The Spirit of the Laws more productive people get, however ‣ Separation of powers everything becomes narrower ‣ Trade causes peace • We remember rich people who do the right ‣ Social organization things with their money ‣ Rule of Law empowers people Wealth brings leisure, an audience, and (Madison loves this) peers Rousseau • Republics correlate with great thinkers ‣ “ People are born free” • Low information and high knowledge ‣ The General Will • Historically background before WWI ? In your heart of hearts you have Industrial revolution your true opinion, and if you vote ‣ UK takes off 1800, US in 1840, with said opinion, the general will Germany in 1850 has a chance to succeed ‣ Steamships, railroads, telegraphs, and ‣ Not very responsible enhanced weapons • Britain, cont ’d. Nationalism: people ought to have their Adam Smith invents economics state and self rule ‣ David Hume helps him 1789 is the birth of nationalism: the French ‣ The balance of power and the balance Revolution of payments 1848: a bunch of revolutions trying to bring ‣ Everything comes with a cost more nationalism to Europe; “the turning point that didn't happen” ‣ Trading with one country, one currency becomes valuable, thus no one can Innovation is expensive, imitation is cheap 8 EricksonKery Naval / sea geopolitics Nationalism: everyone should get their own Main argument: geography isn ’t destiny but rules and rulers it’s really important • John StewardMill and Kampft Water is the highway to the world Fathers of the social sciences 90% of logistics is shipping French Moving things by water is much cheaper • Charles SandersPerse invents statistics than anything else Founds pragmatism The state that controls the water controls • Ranke wanted to understand history as it the world actually happened: “fuck trust, show me” World navies need bases Go to the primary sources and see what Establishes colonialism they said before, during, and after the • Alfred Mackinder history they depict Land geopolitics • William Graham Sunder Geographic pivot of history Interdisciplinary social sciences “orth America is a bread basket” Kind of a political scientist and sociologist Control raw materials, add value to them; Looks at anthological record of war ‣ ’t inevitable, it’s simply part of power in a nutshell War isn America loves railroads and has a lot competition for life and power Concentrations in wealth are insecurities in Group driven theory international relations thought Predecessor to Karl Schmidt (Hitler ’s • Things to know theorist man) Methods ‣ Politics is about insiders and outsiders ‣ Group formation ‣ Loved war, and Sunders hated it • ‣ Geopolitics at land and sea Zimmel Dates German sociologist famous for his ‣ 1648 independent essays on any given subject ‣ 1715 Big insights ‣ 1789 ‣ Balance of power theory: direct ‣ 1815 correlation between unity and threat ‣ • Hintze 1848 ‣ 186471 German ‣ 1914 Founders of American thought despite a Just because great powers have big huge German exodus breakthroughs, some are not hegemonic Germany and France mirror one another ‣ Sameness effect: you look like who you Realism compete with • 3 Big Paradigms Military institutions come from Prussia Realism , Liberalism, Constructivism Welfare state created in Germany so other • What is realism and where did it come from? states follow suit The oldest and most dominate paradigm International politics help create domestic Realism is a school of thought state states institutions compare for anarchy and security, External threats create states balancing sameness and war Useful in explaining the world and its Notes 7 – 2 February 2016 growth • Mahan 9 EricksonKery • ‣ Motive Scope and Definitions ? The motive is security Scope ‣ Geography ‣ Temporal scope (where we are in time and space): all times and places ? Power translates differently across states ? Logic: power has fundamental ? Social v. physical geography dynamics that don ’t change a lot in time and space Mechanisms ‣ scope (what are we talking ‣ Negative feedback: loss in battle, Conceptual electoral lose about): great power politics ‣ Socialization: socialized into the system ? Logic: theory is about simplification, what is more or less ? Picking up the values of a place while you ’re there important Tendencies Definitions ‣ Great power : a great power is a ‣ Uneven growth, relative gains fears: causes selfhelp, balancing behavior, heavyweight in world politics. These taking steps to protect yourself are the states in a weight class of their own. ‣ Balancing: arms or allis; build yourself ‣ Polarity : a count of the number of great up or make friends with those who are already built powers in a system; unipolar, dipolar, ‣ tri polar, nonpolar Dependency and reliance on security ? Big powers have pull ‣ Sameness: copy what works ‣ : schools of theory that ? When people do something that Paradigms share a familiar resemblance works it diffuses through the ? Share intellectual material system ‣ Defensive realists: 90% of realists; fear ‣ Attempting to have a buffer isn ’t what people want: equality is created because makes the system move ‣ Offensive realists: grief makes the everyone wants inequality system move ‣ Not aiming for balance but balance is the result ? Being aggressive pays ? Imbalance of power causes war ? Redmeat realists: how things used to be • Realism remains dominant, however liberalism • explained the world better Arguments Liberalism is for good times, realism is for Theoretical assumptions ‣ The realm of international politics: the bad lethal force and anarchy • Historical background War is incredibly destructive and it has ‣ The assumption of all paradigms is anarchy always been ‣ Rationality : all models assume people Societies are fine losing youth if there are returns on it (shipping young boys off to are somewhat rational ? Realists believe humans aren ’t war) rational War becomes less glorious; it ’s rational ‣ statecraft Actors and states: great and power Technological innovation makes war more states are the main actors in international relations destructive ‣ Nationalism Realists go inside and outside of states 10 EricksonKery • Principle v. Power ; Liberalists v. Realists WWI is a bombshell that blindsides • As political problems increase, realism does everyone better. As economic problems increase, liberalism does better. Classical Realism • • Realism ’s main arguments E.H. Carr We seek security and anarchy T“e 20 Years Crisis” The state ’s engaged in selfhelp Legalism happened between WWI and Equality causes peace WWII War doesn ’t pay Realism v. Idealism Socialization / negative feedback drives ‣ “ealism is impossible;” some ideals are needed, but you also cant be all realism ’s argument Neoliberalism ideals • The root of liberalism ‣ Spectrum between power and principle, and a balancing act is key • Minimalism is key • War happens because in anarchy there is Peaceful change is at the center of nothing to stop it (no state) international relations with a modicum of • justice Federal supremacy is hierarchy • Hans Morgenthau You don't have this in anarchy • Inequality causes peace (?) Jewish • Division of labor is driven by the extent of the Legal background Born/lived in Germany market • Hegemonic stability theory (HST) League of nations won ’t stop war Scope: anytime, anywhere Nation states are part of the problem He wants a world federation Hegemony, primacy, unipolarity ‣ Hegemony just means leadership by He doesn ’t like states; very anxious about one major power, but there could be nuclear war • Waltz others in your “weight class” — Waltz writes “theory of ‣ Unipolarity means only one major 1979 power international politics” ‣ German Primacy is the policy of how to throw D“mestic politics doesn’t matter” your weight around when you ’re the top dog Focuses on human nature over science Commitment problems: incredible exanti States balance out via “copycatting” The sameness effect: you look like the promises about expost deals ‣ Even if you mean it people might not people you compete against believe it WALTZ IS VERY IMPORTANT F“undational and formal model” for realist Preemption is a political strategy for the paranoid theory ‣ Preventing things you worry might • Recent developments in neorealism • 1979: one pure systemic theory and nothing else happen • ’79: branch theories arrive from Waltz’s ? i.e.: the Iraqi war was waged to Post find WMD ’s students GDP: Gross domestic product • “alance of threat theory” ‣ Basically national income Notes 8 – 4 February 2016 11 EricksonKery Abacus of power: when you see that you • Thucydides did it first are more powerful, other people see that as “ slippery shit” well and don ’t want to challenge you Tells it how it was • “the Power balances cause war argument ( Sets up his book like a play abacus of power”) Power is relative and zerosum • Hegemonies come from power … no secret “ar is like cancer” that needs a “cure” there! Finds a war a threat to the veneer of • Uneven growth civilization • Ordinal and Cardinal power • Machiavelli • Interdependence is about balance of trade • More about treatment than diagnosis There is a lot of power in trade ‣ Preemptive personality • What ’s gonna happen with China? “he Prince” gives lessons to princes and • Theory is GOD • thus the people as well HST is a very study model that is good at One of the first authors to put arguments in predicting turbulence, not necessarily war his own mouth about his own work • Gilpin Basically just translated Thucydides 12
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