Study Guide: Midterm
Popular in Latin America: Problem and Promise
Popular in International Studies
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OOOOOOOOOOOOO 00000000 0 0000000 Precolonial and Colonial Foundations of Latin America 3 major civilizations Mayan Civilization Incan Empire Aztec Empire Mayan Civilization Yucatan peninsula down through much of present day Guatemala Series of city states no centralized empire 16 provinces ruled by competing lineages Hierarchical and authoritarian Key cultural achievements architecture mathematics astronomy chronology Growing social and ecological strains caused the collapse of Maya society Aztec Empire Migrated to the marshy valley of Mexico Replaced teotihuacan and tolmecs Art was inferior Little social mobility Expanded dominion south to Guatemala Defeated people s were not incorporated but had to pay tributes war made them money Incan Empire Centered in the Cuzco valley high in the Andes Unlike Aztecs defeated peoples were integrated into the empire Power organized and distributed through bureaucracy Infrastructure development extensive network of roads irrigation system granaries to plan for famines Master engineers Textile design sculpture and painting hieroglyphic writing Discoverv and Conquest Made possible by Europe s newfound technical skill economic resources crusading pagan ideals H rnan Cortez Conquers the Aztec Empire 15091521 1519 led an exhibition Landed in defiance of orders and went on to shore Won superiority with better equipment and technology Mostly won due to disease as well Allied with groups there who were paying tribute to the Aztecs La Malinche was Cortez translator and eventually mistress 1521 Aztec fall to Spanish Empire Francisco Pizarro Conquers Inca Empire 1532 Council of the Indies key institution for New World affairs Viceroyalty ran it First in Mexico then in Peru 1535 Spanish bureaucracy stalemates All groups had some level of access to the bureaucracy local officers possessed some autonomy Political structures underpinned by values and assumptions that legitimized political structure Roman Catholic premise Divine Iaw natural law and human Iaw O O O O OO O O O OO Theological origins of law provided sufficient backdrop for unification of church and state Economic structure mercantilist theory economic activity should enhance the power and prestige of the state measured on the basis of gold or silver bullion lndian labor central foundation from this economy Cheap labor was critical New Laws to bring them under monarchy jurisdiction only altered the legal form of oppression oppression still persisted Drastic falls in population Spaniards began importing black slaves from Africa Portuquese America Royal house of Aviz Portugal had established a far flung empire with outposts in Africa India China and some atlantic Islands 1494 Treaty of Tordesillas Spain gets all lands 370 leagues to the west of Cape Verde Portugal gets east No native civilizations in Brazil comparable to those in the Spainsh colonies No trace of silver or gold no easy path to wealth Brazilwood plays big role Portuguese crown has to resort to other means to get money Only in 1549 they began establishing a bureaucracy To protect from French and British Sugar industries in the Northeast Natives fell victim to devastating European disease Needed slaves Brazil colonial economy had been created for export Limited racial intermarriage lnternal division amongst Brazilianborn Portugueseborn merchants Main contribution agriculture and not mining ensuring revenues from prize colony Chose to concentrate its gains on taxing Brazil s exports landowners and The War of Spanish Succession Death of Charles II in 17000 0 Last Hapsburg king of Spain I lnfertile more than a century of inbreeding I Doesn t have a clear heir 1 Philip N Bourbon of France should get the throne Threatening for the rest of Europe But he was also somehow a heir to the throne of France 0 First world war 17011714 0 Spain and France vs Dutch English Hapsburg Holy Roman Empire The Bourbon Reforms Charles I 0 Third in the line of the Bourbon kings 0 Goal To Reverse Spain s Decline I Spain had been a top dominant power particularly in the Americas but its power was declining in the Americas and other countries in Europe were rising up Reforms 0 Creation of two new Viceroyalties I New Granada 1717 I Rio de la Plata 1739 1 Separation from New Spain Mexico and Peru Way to help the crown in Madrid to get more control 0 Centralization of royal control I lntendant system with governors responsible to the Crown 1 Peninsulares were given more power I Reassertion of control over courts I Expulsion of the Jesuits a Liberalizing reforms 0 Economic and trade reform I Decree of Free Trade 1778 a More ports were allowed to trade with each other 1 Not allowed to trade with the British or French Domination of the colonies Nothing Fails like Success Seeds of the Independence Movement 0 Reforms tipped off the creole elites Events in Eur0pe Provided a Spark and Justification for Independence Napoleonic Wars 0 Invasion of Portugal 1807 I Portuguese royal family escapes to Brazil with help of British navy o Invasion and occupation of Spain 1809 I Napoleon s brother Joseph installed on the Spanish throne I Spanish King Ferdinand VIII established the Junta of Sevilla I Autonomous Juntas established in New Granada and Rio de la Plata 1 Bolivar 1 San Martin I Royalists retained control in New Spain Mexico New Spain El Grito de la Independencia Failed Rebellion of Hidalgo and Morelos in Mexico 18101815 0 Hidalgo I A mob of mestizos and Indian supporters I Guanajuato I Dolores Guanajuato a Massacred all the crowns people a Marched to Mexico City and had many successful wars OOIOOOO Nobody understands why he didn t take over Mexico City 0 Morelos I Mestizo I Took over an independence movement The Liberation of South America Bolivar San Martin 0 Surprise attack to Chile 0 Crossed the Andes o Bernardo O Higgins o Lima I Centered of the viceroyalties I Very conservative 1 So he didn t take over the city Liberal Reforms in Spain Push Conservatives to subport Independence The Constitution of Cadiz 1812 endorsed by Ferdinand VIII 0 Liberalizing reform 0 Support of the Formerly Royalist General lturbide led Mexican Independence and declared himself Emperor 1821 0 Only lasts a couple of years Independence in Brazil Portuguese royal exiled in Brazil during French occupation When French were defeated Brazil was elevated to coequal status Independence or death Brazil won independence as an imperial monarchy in 1822 0 Emperor Dom Pedro I Earlv Independence the Imperial Era and the Cold War Domestic factors in Early Independence The Challenge of Consolidation Challenges of PostIndependence StateBuilding Destruction of institutions and political order Economic destruction of war across the hemisphere Lack of capital dependency on agriculture and mining Deep dependent integration into the European world economy Basic colonial economic structure remained largely intact Post Independence Conflicts Mexico Internal struggles for control between rival factionscaudillos II IOIIOIIIIIOOIIIOOOOI I OI I I0 I IIO IO Caudillo warlord Mobilized fighting revolution have people who back them up and fight on their behalf when necessary Interelite conflict Brazil Strong regionalism and revolts after abdication of Pedro I upon his return to Portugal Argentina Rivalry between Buenos Aires and the interior of the country International Context The Imperial Era Imperialism and Its Variations 1 Conquest and incorporation France 2 Colonization England Holland Spain 3 Spheres of influencespheres of interest various The US Strategy Driving Europe out Monroe Doctrine 1823 America for americans hands off Europe Preference for Spain Notransfer principle 18111869 When a country became no longer a colony of a European power can t be a colony of another Creating America s empire Stage 1 territorial conquest and incorporation Mexico Cuba Stage 2 Dollar diplomacy and periodic intervention The Doctrine of Manifest Destiny There is economic interest for imperial powers to have interest dominance over weaker countries We have it in our power to begin the all over again Thomas Paine 1776 It is by the right of our manifest destiny to overspread and to possess the whole of the continent with Providence has given us for the development of the great experiment of liberty and federated selfgovernment entrusted to usquot Dollar Diplomacy Fear that indebted Caribbean countries would be invaded or occupied by European powers to collect their debts In response US government would encourage private banks to buy the debts of the Caribbean countries with the understanding that the US would help to collect One procedure take over control of customs houses Garnish a piece of tariff revenue Roosevelt Corollary Cold War Truman doctrine Post ColdWar The US had to support free peoples who are resisting attempted subjugation by armed minorities or by outside pressures The Problem of Latin America George Kennan Danger lies less in the conquest of mass support than in the clever infiltration of key positions The positions already gained by the communists in this manner are the ones that could cause us acute embarrassment in case of war We have not appreciated the full seriousness of this situation III IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIOOO OO O CO Intensifying the study of the communist movement in LA We need to have coercive meassures applied to other governments that are being excessively tolerant to antiamerican activity An Alternative View Reform to block Revolution Promote reforms for the poor to actually see the benefit of liberal capitalist society Strategies for Economic Development Liberal Era 188031920s Liberalism as reaction to the constraints of church and monarchy Virtudes of personal freedom and economic freedom vis a vis the state the church Key liberal thinkers Adam Smith Wealth of Nations Critique of mercantilism trade only with mother country invisible hand wealth of nations would be increased with decreased state restrictions on commerce and trade Ricardo Principles of Political Economy and Taxation Theory of comparative advantage All countries gain from specialization and trade An International Division of Labor Industrialization and demand for primary products in Europe Latin American countries specialized in export of primary products Imported manufactured goods Dominant ideology to justify these policies was liberalism Implications for Social Structure Liberalism in economic trade and policy did not translate into sociopolitical liberalism Why not Extreme social stratification Racism rejection of liberal ideals of equality Social structures that emerges from largescale agriculture and mining is not conducive to empowering subordinate classes ChangingEvolving class structures Emergence of entrepreneurial capitalist elites to replace compete with traditional feudal elites Emergence of new middle sectors merchants lawyers clerks Nonagrarian working class beginning railroad workers stevedores miners Relevant Reading Kennan Latin America as a Problem in US Foreign Policy Kennan did not like Latin America Big contrasts between poor and elite Memorandum to Dean Acheson LA climate and geography and its historical legacy of destruction and crime against natives did not allow political stability democracy and prosperity Protect US interests must keep within sphere of influences Halt communism KENNAN CORROLARY Support repressive regimes against the spread of communism in the region Activity of communists in the area most serious concern Points out that there are differents kind of communism Not highly disciplined like Moscow Guatemala only exception to fact that it is unlikely that communists might acquire the strength to come into power by majority 00 000 IOIIOOO OOOOOO IIOOI IO 0 What to do to avoid communism Incentives to repel communist pressures Conclusions Danger lies in conquest of mass support of Communism Positions already gained by communists in this manner are ones that could cause embarassent to US in case of war Study Latin America Elaboration of techniques for coercive measures that can impress other governments with the danger of antagonizing us through excessive toleration of antiamerican activities Import Substitution Industrialization and Rise of Washington Consensus Crisis in Liberalism The Great Depression Economic crisis in the US and Europe Latin America didn t have people to sell their products to Didn t have to purchase imports Culmination of falling image of Europe and the US The Latin American Responses Need uniquely LA answers to LA problems Calls to industrialize in LA necessity Produce manufactured goodsimports locally Cannot be dependent on EU and US great depression showed that Replace imported industrial products with locally produced goods ISI Ideologically rooted in nationalism Find a way to not rely on those countries Sovereignty must come from economic selfsufficiency Intellectual underpinnings United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America ECLA centered in Santiago reflecting idea that this is Latin America not Washington or Geneva Latin American idea shelf develop our own responses to problems we face Rat39JI Prebish intellectual author Theoretical Argument There are systematic disadvantages to primaryproducing countries Price of manufactured goods increase faster Developing countries receive less and less value for their exports value selling the same amt of prime commodity exports they are able to purchase less and less of the widgets that they import Creates a gao Leads to balance of payments problem Policy solutions Commodity agreements eg cartels Keep shit off market to keep the price higher control over price if you have that Local industrialization promote through protective tariffs Economic integration within Latin America to expand markets Strategies for Economic Development III What is the Washington Consensus Belief that economic health is maximized by rational individual actors pursuing self interest in competitive markets OOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOIIIIIIIIII GOOD 0 Fiscal discipline Redirection of public spending priorities Tax reform Interest rate liberalization Competitive exchange rate Trade liberalization Liberalization of FDI inflows Privatization Deregulation Secure property rights WC ISI failiure US pressure limited markets inflation inefficiencies Debt Weak economic growth 19803 spike of inflation How did the Conceptual Frame Change Old Developmentalist frame role of the state in the economy Transition Frame Democracy vs Authoritarianism New interpretive frame need for a new economic model to overcome structural inefficiencies of ISI system Washington Consensus What was going on economically Social dislocation Lack of growth Debt The Organic Practitioner lntellectuals of the Washington Consensus Wilton Friedman Reagan Thatcher Key point They have PHDs doing analysis writing papers solid amp substantial Crisis political moment where change can happen Relevant Readings Panizza Paradigm found In Search of the Washington Consensus Neoliberalization labeling on latin america makes it easier to identify what happens but risks obscuring fundamental questions about the nature of this change Not just economic ideological cultural and symbolic elements Grounded in a loose set of beliefs associated with laissezfaire capitalism There are policy prescriptions that lead to neoliberalism Diverse and uneven nature of neoliberal ideas neoliberalism is a relational construct contested meaning is defined and redefined by defenders and detractors Washington Consensus Fiscal discipline Redirection of public spending priorities Tax reform Interest rate liberalization 0 0000000 00 0 000 00000000 0 IO Competitive exchange rate Trade liberalization Liberalization of FDI inflows Privatization Deregulation Secure property rights Williamson key to successful economic development was to emulate marketoriented and relatively open policies preached not always practiced by develoed nations WC combines highly specific recommendations with more flexible ones general normative principles with more programmatic ones Necessary to look at the WC as emerging through as an attempt to address key problems of the time and how its main institutional backers reacted to the model s failures and how it adopted and adapted some of the key elements of its critics agenda Chapter 12 Strategies for Economic Development Four main strategies or ideologies Economic liberalism 1880319203 lSl 1930s1970s Socialism 1950319803 Liberalism 19QOspresent Narrative of backwardnessunderdevelopment Francisco Encinas weak character habits and values Villains like Catholic church Sodio Villegas Latin America factory for economic experiences Liberal Era Inspiration from Europe Context of intensive political change need to liberate economic activity from restrictions imposed by church andor state Essential role of commerce openness no tariffs or quotas David Riccardo s comparative advantage LA leaders began to promote the exportation of foodstuffs and minerals in exchange for importation of manufactured products To some degree achieved its fundamental goal Startling transitions Argentina agriculture Chile mining Cuba tobacco and coffee and sugar Mexico raw materials BUT lacked social structure that had nurtured liberalism in Europe Free mart LA liberals assigned crucial responsibilities to the state State sent out to destroy neofeudal remnants Reduce power of the Catholic Church Also assumed considerable responsibility for the labor force Aggressive immigration campaigns Guatemala seasonal migration of workers from traditional villages to coffee plantations thal performance inconsistent Liberalism should not have such a large role Policymakers tended to follow market signals and carry out wishes of economic elites rather than to pursue overall design Social transformations under liberalism Modernization of uoperclass elite Landowners and property owners did not run haciendas on subsistence operations sought commercial opportunities and maximization of profits gt entrepreneurial spirit O I000 000 0000000 0 IOIO OO O Enlargement of the middle class Merchants lawyers Emergence of a working class Imported labor Alberdi To govern is to populate Not much foothold in political power Began to organize themselves in early 20th century through mutual aid societies and then in unions Critical role gt potential leverage Primitive facilities small firms and industries Liberalism ends with the great depression ISI Stems from disenchantment from liberal ideology Prestige of major powers declining US military interventions in Central America and Carribean make North look like exploitative colonial overlord Countries begin to industrializes Clear policy goal Not to copy the paths of Europe and America but to SUBSTITUTE what they imported ie textiles apparel beverages ceramics cosmetics Strong intervention of the state statesupported entities provided credit to entrepreneurs Inward looking development concern with national producers and consumers rather than with overseas markets Theoretical support 2 principle sources Nationalism longheld desire for autonomy and selfdetermination Economic self sufficiency no need to rely on anyone Technocratic bureau of the United Nations created in 1948 ECLAC systematic analysis of economic problems of the region Aggressive participant in Latin America s global economic play Major player Rat39JI Pr bisch AR Distinctive approach to economic analysis Price of manufactured goods was increasing faster than the price of agricultural and mineral commodities developing countries obstaining less real value for their exports Solution establish international commodity agreements larger countries undertake industrialization pursue economic integration among countries in the region and expand consumer markets Principal goal economic independence Second goal job creation 1930s1960s relative success 1960 LAFTA Latin America Free Trade area then ALADI 20 years later Little practical success due to competitive economies and nationalist sentiment Prime movers in ISI growth Brazil and Mexico Smaller countries ISI not feasible Large countries economic success yielded social issues New powergroup in societies Subject to saturation production costs still required imports of capital goods these costs were passed on to consumers in protected markets almost monopolies discouraged investment in technologies Subsidized and inefficient local firms could not compete in international market Socialist Alternative 1950519803 Liberalism and ISI failed 000000 I I0 I OO 0 000 0 IO 0 IOIOO Radical political and economic change embrace socialism Emerging from the region s middle class Conviction that capitalism exploitation of workers by the owners of production Class conflict Prime vehicles at first political parties 1930319503 developed close ties to USSR 1960s 1970s passive observers of national politics In contrast socialist parties sometimes played big roles postwar More flexible than communist denounced US imperalists attuned to local realities Substantial credibility Jacobo arbenz Guatemala Salvador Allende Chile Revolutionary movements Far reaching programs for socioeconomic change Does not leave the structures intact like golpes de estado Faith in the power of the state State was therefore worthy of conquest Central pillar of revolutionary movement Armed movements emerged in almost every country of the region Rural peasantry guerillas FIRST WAVE Fidelistas in Cuba Guatemala Venezuela and Colombia Bolivia with Che SECOND WAVE 1970s1980s Central America Nicaragua El Salvador Only managed to seize power in Cuba and Nicaragua plantation societies of modest size Fidelistas and Sandinistas were both challenging corrupt dictatorships that were losing touch with supporters Disastrous fate of guerilla movements fall of USSR socialism loses ideological appeal Dependency theory conceptual framework for historical analysis over prescription for policy ECLA suggested global commerce unfriendly to less developed nations oSoial class analysis who benefited from these dynamics Dependency plethora of proposed solutions Use as learning device Neoliberalism 19803Present 1970s petroleum prices rise due to OPEC market manipulations Increases import bill petrodollar windfalls Bankers turn to Latin America for borrowers gt increases foreign debt in area 1980s borrowing countries dealing with rising interest rates and debt services 1982 Mexico declares that it could no longer pay then came Brazil Worldwide crisis Region credit crisis accompanies by a protracted economic crisis Countries had to adopt orthodox IMF austerity plan slashing gvt expenditures and susbsidies reducing real wages STAGNATION First stage of crisis 19821985 Bankers and debtors try to muddle through as problem of liquiditycash flow Successful rescue of banks Second stage of crisis 1985 US treasury declares solvency as an issues US gvt support for a portfolio of debt reduction and restructuring alternatives for countries that were willing to undertake marketbased economic policies OOO OT OOO L 9 OT OIIIT OII OISquot3939gt Washington Consensus LA gvts should support private sector Libearlize policies on trade Reduce economic role of the state MAJOR PARADOX centerpiece to entire program was reducing the role of the state but implementation of these policies had to be done by a powerful state Free Trade WC places emphasis on commerce NAFTA US Mexico game changer Hemispheric free trade zone still not possible FTA irony reflected deliberate decisions by the state rather than free trade Did not remove barriers to trade Terms of management ISI and rise of Washington Consensus Set policies that overlap What factors explain the rise of the Washington consensus Leverage over these countries Loss decades of the 19803 World BankIMF loaned heavily to LA countries in order to fund money for big investment projects in order to get these loans they needed to get inflation under control lower tariffs etc Series of political structural adjustments that countries were pushed into adopting in order to get loans International institutions have binding authority over the member governments and these agreements are binding reality is more complicated by the agreements are voluntary but still were binging to international institutions The structural adjustments were Washington s way of imposing the Washington Consensus power of agenda setting and manipulating preferences Coalitions are formed to make radical reforms major breaks from the past Neoliberal reforms hurt the majority of the population gt electroshock Countries have been managing their countries wrong for a long time Prominent cases Policy switchers Carlos Menem Alberto Fujimori Stated that they were not going to implement these policies But they did Cases are important but that is not what is happening in the region Hand full of heroes Enlightened leaders come to power democracy Wisdom and courage Heroic politicians who do this Suffer politically but they do it Civil Society and legislatures Broader Larger than life politicians in LA Luna talks about this N NT OOOOOOOII T OOO 9 OSOWNQP PFDNT OOOOOOP P In order to learn about the different parts of the left you need to look out at how they get their power and what forces support them and oust them Hector Shamas Don t need to resort to fanciful source of a hero to explain this puzzle Old school interest based political science literature is necessary to explain this Theory of collective active Coalitions in LA were formed in such way that elites in the old system were benefited from the new system Interlocking ownership skills How to keep these people off the street In what respects were they successful The curing of inflation and hyper inflation Improvement of the debt situation Investment flows increased gt all emerging markets not only Latin America Problems in the armor of the Washington Consensus Benefit of the reforms lasts until the 1990s 1994 Tequila Crisis in Mexico Hangover ContagionInvestors that got caught were worrying about losing their money in Mexico and then everyone pulled out their money as well In order to put investors money into Mexico they started to demand a greater interest rate with higher return Indicator of a perception of greater risk These are government bonds so there is a certain yield on it over a particular amount of time Hangover Effect Foreshadowing of the 1997 Asian financial crisis centered in Thailand but all across the region Ruble crisis of 1998 LOC Left of CenterProgressive Parties won elections all over LA after 2007 60 of LA were governed by some variation of the left Hugo Chavez Lula da Silva Kircheners Lagos Bachelet Morales Correa Mujica Vasquez Why has the left been successful Western hemisphere security in historical perspective During most of the 20th century a security threat was an encroachment particularly a military encroachment in the hemisphere by a rival state IO 0 00000 000000 After the Cold War and 911 the concept security threat was stretched to include nonstate actors such as criminal organizations Now China is active in the hemisphere Is it a security threat Securitv During Most of the 20th Centurv The concept of security implied the worldview of realist scholars of international relations the world is savage and conflict ridden and military capabilities including access to strategic raw materials are key Margareth The Caribbean Basin was considered the most important area of LA because of its proximity affecting US freedom of movement and its raw materials It was also considered very important gt Panama Canal The South Atlantic East Coast of South America was also important for its sea lanes and logistic supplies During WWI and WWII Germany sought allies in Latin America but by and large failed President Woodrow Wilson and FDR were conciliatory with LA countries in particular Mexico under Carranza and Cardenas FDR and Wilson were very attentive If Mexico and other LA countries joined the US Dependency theory becomes very popular because the security threat and the economic threats converged during the Cold War Securitv During the Cold War During the Cold War the USSr was wary of confronting the US in its backyard But some LA leftists leaders courted the USSR And Cuba s Fidel Castro achieved an alliance with the USSR The US perceived security threats and in most scholars views overreacted Fidel Castro and the USSR Emerged as opposition to Batista He was not communist election of 1952 Scholars debate on where he decided he was going to become communist Embrace between Krushchev and Fidel Castro US Security Policies Produced Insecurity The Eisenhower administration supported the dictator Batista despite his 1952 coup aborting elections in which Fidel Castro was a candidate for the legislature for a nonMarxist party Fidel Castro toppled the proUS dictator batista in January 1959 A Factor in a military coup against LA s most robust democracy Salvador Allende a Socialist was elected in 1970 Allende s nationalization of US companies alienated a key corporate friends of Nixon s Allende s democratic socialism was feared by Kissinger to be a model for EuroCommunism The US erected an economic blockade and the CIA covertly actors in violent opposition to the government The USSR did not come to Chile s rescue Nicaragua 19811989 US Security policies exacted many civilian deaths and culminated in the Iran Contra scandal In 1979 the FSLN came to power in a revolution against a dictator Somoza O OOOI O O 0 C 00000 O OO 0 Charging the FSLN with support for Marxist rebels in El Salvador President Reagan promoted the central largely former members of Somoza National Guard based in Honduras When the US Congress rejected funds the Reagan administration illicitly sold arms to Iran for money The civilian toll in Nicaragua aproximately 30000 people The End of the Cold War US military and economic power were unrivaled During the Bush 41 and Clinton presidencies hemispheric cooperation was unprecedented But attitudes toward the US in LA were complex US soft power had been tarnished by its actions during the Cold War In the absence of an extrahemispheric rival and interstate military conflict the term security expanded to include nonstate threats in particular drug trafficking See John Cope and Frank More Securitv and the War on Druosquot More than 85 of the cocaine sold in the US is produced or transported from LA primarily Colombia Peru Bolivia Mexico and most recently Central America Esp Honduras and the Caribbean Drugtraffcking organization are rich and violent and they both corrupt and intimidate law enforcement The homicide rate is higher in LA than in any other region of the world Drug use in the US has not declined since the 1990s although it decline 20 since 2007 and cocaine use has declined recently The US spends 65 billion a year on illegal drugs Coca cultivation in LA has not declined since the 19903 Francisco Gonzalez article In the 1990s early 20003 the key theater was Colombia Gradually the Colombian cartels were defeated Although Colombia remained a key producing country Mexican cartels took over trafficking to the US In Mexico 06 President Calder n sent 45000 soldiers to fight the drug cartels The pressure was a factor in the cartels shifting operations to Central America and most recently back to the Caribbean Obama Administration and the War on Druos The US acknowledged coresponsibility and supported the Merida Initiative 15 billion for Calderon s offensive The US failed to end the export of assault weapons 21st Century Venezuela s President Hugo Chavez sought allies inside and outside the hemisphere China dramatically expanded its economic role in LA Are there political implications as well Overall the US appeared to have learned that overreactions can be counterproductive both exacerbating the intensity of the security threat when the LA country sought to balance US power and deeply costing the soft power of the US In purchasing power parity dollars China s GDP is the second largest in the world approximately 23 GDP lTs GDP could be the 1 by 2012 But China s per capita GDP is modest China s trade and investment with LA have boomed China is the number 1 trading partner for Brazil Chile and Peru and number 2 for Argentina Venezuela and Cuba among othersO 000 O O O O 000 0 00000 OO 0 China has made large loans especially to Venezuela at least 40 billion amp Argentina 12 billion Ecuador 9 billion and Brazil 12 billion vs 8 billion to other LA countries Venezuela s President Hugo Chavez sought allies inside and outside the hemisphere China dramatically expanded its economic role in LA Are there political implications as well Overall the US appeared to have learned that overreactions can be counterproductive both exacerbating the intensity of the security threat when the LA country sought to balance US power and deeply costing the soft power of the US Venezuela Became Hostile Hugo Chavez was elected in 1998 in what was universally considered a free and fair election But in 2002 the Bush administration welcomed what turned An Erosion of US Power Bush 43 was very unpopular in LA From 200 to 2005 China s Rise to the Position of Global Power Number 2 Overall China argues that its rise is not a threat to the US LA countries have sought to balance US power through relationships primarily economic with China Overall the US has agreed that China s rise is not a threat and has not confronted China s activities in the region as it did the Soviet Union s China s military expenditure are the 2nd largest in the world Over the last 20 years they have increased by doubledigit percentages annually but they remain less than 15 In general Latin Americans admire the work ethics of Chinese Conclusion During the 20th century Latin America was the US backyard andwith the major exception of Cubathe US imposed its own interpretation of security on the region But this imposition had costs During the 21st century US power in the region is more limited China is a major economic player and Latin American countries themselves are more powerful It is easier for LA countries to balance US power with China s and more difficult for the US to impose its interpretation of security on the region Relevant Readings Hayes Dimensions of US security interests in LA LA has marginal role in strategic power balance region has little power and because its been relatively isolated from global politicalmilitary spectrum lnterest areas of US security Continental proximity and independent political military and economic independence Carribean Basin and the Gulf of Mexico East Coast South America West Coast South America Carribean Basin Maintain freedom of movement Concern enemies might gain this access throughout the region Area of important economic interest transships US petroleum Military activity location Vulnerable to penetration Poor politics vulnerable to penetration OOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOIIOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO US weakness seen if withdraw from region Roosevelt corollary replaced by Good Neighbor Policy Discourage and prevent hostile governments is main goal Psychological importance Panama Canal not even that important but can respond quickly to contingencies Primary concern unstable political situation yields to Soviet invasion Economic dependence on US hard to leave sphere of influence South Atlantic Atlantic Ocean south of the equator south of Natal and Snegal Cape of Good Hope Political instability A lot of petroleum traffic Keep this secure West Coast South America Ship repair and refueling facilities raw material supply Less vital interests than other regions bc it is more isolated from external events Cope and Mora Hemispheric Security a new approach Only seem to focus on it when it is a security threat The growing poverty inequality can be an environment that fosters criminal networks etc Growing instabilities within many LA countries seem to suggest US approach failing Governments are less dependent and kind of tired of Washington paternalistic approach Weak States Loss of confidence in democratic institutions Combine this with crime weak states CrossBorder Threats Transnational security threats Lots of homicides Violence can cost like 15 of GDP Undermines public security and weaken democratic governance PCC in Brazil in 2006 Independence Davs Cooperation on common interests security principally tend to fail Societies in the region distrust each other Really diverse environment Emerging independence from Washington Reafirmino Securitv Policv Resist temptation to act simply to secure US goals Pursue strategy here neighbors are equal partners Farnsworth The New Mercantilism China s Emerging Role in the Americas Keep political control by allowing and encouraging economic liberalization in China Growth and job creation are vital gt undervalued currency to keep global demand for exports high Seek long term guaranteed access to raw materials Turned into value added products then exported around the world MERCANTILIST STRATEGY China has recently entered LA with force US however is declining Has bilateral trade agreements with Chile Costa Rica and Peru I OO O 0 00000000 IOIIIO Commodities make up 80 of Chinese purchases Cyclical commodity markets have stabilized and prices remain high Come back to Brazil at really competitive prices US needs to follow this Post NeoLiberal Era and the Left Turns PostWashington Consensus What is the left Not a good left or a bad left No left or progressive governments in the region Any political actor that essentially took as its guiding principle the fulfillment of the principles of the French Revolution Chavez tropical Mussolini Ortega aligned with ALBA and yet he is governed with an alliance with the Catholic Church Why the rise of the left Situated in two broad sets of processes Economic transformations debt crisis lost decade of the 80 s Political side gradual but regionwide consolidation of democratic politics in the period ranging from the 80s to the 90s Democratization understood through Yasher in part what is going on is that there is popular reaction against the political opportunity structure Competitive political structures establishment of more decentralized power structures Stresses of economic change opportunities afforded by political conditions The political gradual region wide transformation to democratic policies Andean Mobilized societies Fundamental tension Economic logic of market orientation of liberalization in a political logic of redistribution Response to changes in the political opportunities Decentralized political systems In which actors can have people here their demands Stresses of economic changes and opportunities of political conditions Striking that this wave of left governments came into power through electoral means Latin America There is a bifurcation in which the way the latin American political economies act Panama north gt Fundamentally integrated into a North America Political Economy Not that integrated with other parts of the world Driven by US aims South Increasingly detached from the United States IIOII OIIIOIIIIIIIIIIIIIOIIIIIIIIIIIOCOO Chile has achieved an incredible diversification of trade Alliances visions are different from the ones in the US Venezuela and Ecuador Substantial levels of trade with the US But not constraining Fragmented environment Economic Policies Left governments varying tendencies Every state deals in a different way with the ISI period until its ends in the 1980s Large informal sectors and aspiring middle classes Majorities Frames for incorporating these populations Three ideal ways of dealing with the challenges in the region An extension of the market extension of the neoliberal paradigma Cmombm Peru No taxes burden except for Colombia Do not use the state to allocate capital Do not prioritize industrial policies States that continue to shy away from planning Concerned with distribution Market oriented distribution Provide incentives gt education Redistribution of opportunities Market dynamics Not incompatible with the neoliberal practices Strong union movements that become institutionalized Lack those labor movements Lack capitalist class that will enter these parties No social democracy Strategically state commitments Chile Lagos Bachelet Social democratic direction ScandinavianNZ direction Concerned with upgrading the economysophistication Cmombm Sectors around Santos but they haven t gained hegemony in the government PeruMexico Raised taxes Increasingly committed to universal social wealth fares Not a market logic EcuadorBolivia Universal old age pension Radical populists ALBA Countries IIIIOIOIIOIOIII IIOIOOIOIOOOOIOIO IOOOOOO Universal programs that are sometimes distributed through clientelist means GasolinePetroleum Strategic innovation diversification lack Bolivia Stable economy Correa Creative thinking State intervention gt constructively Conditional Cash Transfers Left invests more in this Enormous commodity boom lead by China and Japan People ingrate degrees of vulnerability middle class came out With the decline of this boom and the Degree of macroeconomics gt Venezuela Investments to upgrade diversity economies Move increasingly into knowledge and innovation based Good vs Bad Left Institutional conditions that accompany the rise of power Ecuador Venezuela Bolivia gt no institutional framework Coming into power Chile Brazil Uruguay Established and legitimate political institutions Check and balances Recentralized most countries were decentralized Shifting balances ALBA gt Ideological affinity around an agenda of redistribution Take on the United States Brazilian Project Brazilian lead South America MERCOSUR UNASUR Latin American alternative CELAC Everyone except Canada US China Obama Administration Trinidad amp Tobago Reciprocity New day New side Cartagena Conference Slammed from every direction At the end of the rope Drug O 00 OO 0 GOOD 0 00 IO 0 Inmigration Cuba VVeapons The administration had not responded properly Relevant Readings Hershberg A Fragmented Landscape Dissapointment of WC leads to 3 different models North continuing neoliberal policies within the US framework of trade alliance Southern Cone orthodox macroecon policies reindustrialization strategies globalization with a human face Andean more radical nature Argument of argue of all these models what is at stake is the future of capital and its relation with the State and with Labor and this will determine in which way the region comes to terms with the rest of the world Zapatistas in Mexico against WC and armed Candidates elected in opposition to these policies ended up following these policies Neoliberal strategy disappointing because Economic growth remained anemic except CHile Low growthless jobs MOST NOTEWORTHY Poverty and inequality remained Weakening of the capacity of the state and collective actors to bring social welfare Public intervention decreased by WC Popular doubts gained expression through ballot box Sustainability of those 3 models depends on global demand for gamps that LA economies produce Seems favorable Restructuring has promoted a concentration of ownership of industry Calva Nora and Juarez Declining Inequality in LA Inequality is linked to statecapture on the part of predatory elites terms of access to high quality education discrimination etc Role played by demand and supply of labor by skill minimum wages and gvt transfers play a role in diminishing inequality rates 2 underlying phenomena in Brazil Argentina and Mexico A fall in the premium to skilled labor Due to changes in the composition of demand and supply of labor by skill and rising minimum wage market and state action Higher and more progressive gvt transfers Decline in both labor and nonlabor income inequality Labor inequality can occur because expansion of employment andor hours worked Argentina case for first Brazil and Mexico no Brazil and Mexico unskilled labor became less abundant basic education improved Luna Left Turns 00 Challenges good and bad left Nature of leftist governments is contingent to each country s long term development Traditional analysis fails to identify the differences between each type of left Established parties v new political movements Analyze Chile not only with the Socialist Party Partisan constraints important to understand how they work Leftist parties put together a large link to electorates Diversity Nonpartisan factors provide exogenous constraints into government action Amelioristlnstitutional Change sought Chile low exogenous and endogenous Uruguay High RadicalConstituent Venezuela low Bolivia high Crafting a new compromise between political regime and socioeconmical development order Rejection of compromise between market economy and liberal democracy Low constraints gvts who have greater autonomy control partisan organizations and have a more autonomous state apparatus Higher constraints stronger civil society autonomous partisan orgs can constrain leadership and the leftist social base is strained by distributive conflicts Political Reqime Cvcles Military in LA politics 0 Recurrent theme Phases of Militarization o Crisis of Oligarchical Rule 19101920 Elites promoted modernization economic expansion based on export led development model Working classes form demand for social and worker rights Military would intervene but leave 0 ll Great Depression 1930 Economic crisis as trigger Military repressed rights Modernized infrastructure and education 0 III Cold War 1960s1970s Fear of communist spread Military took on more active long term ideological stance Justification keep political order and check power of emergent working classes Przeworski reading 0 Key to democratization is when reformers regime actors and moderates civil society have upper hand
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