PSC 101 Tuman Final Study Guide
PSC 101 Tuman Final Study Guide PSC 101
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This 13 page Study Guide was uploaded by Stephanie Smith on Tuesday August 16, 2016. The Study Guide belongs to PSC 101 at University of Nevada - Las Vegas taught by John Tuman in Fall 2016. Since its upload, it has received 6 views. For similar materials see Intro American Politics in Politica science at University of Nevada - Las Vegas.
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101 Final Review - 2 essays “stuff from right after the midterm” - probably presidency for 1 essay question for sure; read ch 7 and 16 for examples of equality and civil rights, connection to voting and not voting 1. Discuss some of the factors that shape a president’s job approval rating (or reelection chances) in public opinion surveys. In addition, analyze some of the informal roles played the US president in our political system. a) Dynamics of Presidential Approval and Re-election (1) Economic Inﬂuences (a) Pocketbook model - developed 1978 by Fiorina p 141 i) when voters think about whether or not they approve / would re-elect the president, they think about their own income or their own economic position retrospectively - past 12-18 months (b) Sociotropic Model - develop 1988 by Lewis-Beck p 141 i) based on feelings about overall feelings about the economy as a whole; do you believe that there is a lot of unemployment, inﬂation, economic growth retrospectively - past 12-18 months (c) Data suggest that Sociotropic model is the most valid (2) Foreign policy is not salient (a) Are exceptions i) long wars - the longer a war, the more it affects public opinion ii) terrorism (3) Partisanship ID has strong effect B. Informal Roles played by US president 1. Set goals a) Since Kennedy administration (maybe earlier) (1) Kennedy set goal of putting humans on the moon in a certain period of time 2. Reassure public in times of crisis a) Giving the public a sense of what the government is doing with regard to national security threat b) Eg. Bush (1) Katrina vs 9/11 (a) low level of attention on Katrina and ﬂood control system - seen as a slow reaction 3. Economic Management 4. Party Leader a) Bill Clinton, historically democrats were anti-free trade, Clinton changed that as president 5. World Leaders 2. Discuss and analyze the process of electing the President. What is the Electoral College, and what role does it play in Presidential elections? Our elections are not national, they are federal (meaning state by state) Election based on decision in the electoral college I. President and Executive Branch A. Electing the President - the role of the Electoral College 1. How many votes? 538 electoral college votes (one for each member of House and Senate, and pursuant to 23rd amendment, 3 for DC; 435+100+3=538); note: reapportionment affects distribution of electoral college votes. 270 to win election. see p 247 of book. a) National polls are useless in predicting the president - state polls matter 2. Who are the electors? Political parties choose slates of electors for each candidate (some variation). Few restrictions on who may be elector (Article 2 = Representatives, Senators, and others holding position in Federal government barred; 14th amendment barred individuals who negated in rebellion again US). States may impose some requirements (for example, in Nevada, the elector must be a legally registered member of party that selects him/ her. 3. When do the electors vote? Electors vote in each state, in December, on the Monday following the second Wednesday in December, with a winner take all system (except in Maine and Nebraska). 4. Bound by the popular vote? Electors are not bound by the US Constitution or Federal stated to follow popular vote (but 26 states, and DC do impose such a requirement). 5. In Nevada, NRS 298.075 states: “The Secretary of State shall provide to each presidential elector a ballot for the ofﬁce of President and a ballot for the ofﬁce of Vice President. The presidential elector shall mark the applicable ballot provided by the Secretary of State fro the person who received the highest number of votes at the general election for the ofﬁce of President and the person who received the highest number of votes at the general election for the ofﬁce of Vice President. The presidential electro shall sign and legibly print his or her name on the ballots and present the ballots to the Secretary of State.” Only those who follow this procedure will have their votes recorded by the NV Secretary of State for the Electoral College vote; ballots that don’t conform are invalid, and that Electro will be considered a “vacant” position and replaced. 6. What if there is no majority? 12th amendment establishes procedure if no majority (House of Reps decides President by majority, with each state delegation = 1 vote of top 3 candidates; Senate chooses VP, with each Senator choosing from top 2 candidates). 7. Presidents who lost the popular vote but won the electoral-college vote a) Rutherford Hayes 1876 b) Benjamin Harrison 1888 c) George Bush vs Gore 2000 3. Discuss the structure of the executive branch of the Federal government, with a focus on bureaucratic organizations (eg. Federal departments, etc.) B. Management in the White House 1. Executive Ofﬁce of the President a) 4,000 employees; chief of staff b) National security staff c) Ofﬁce of Management and budget (1) Forecasting (inﬂation, unemployment) (a) Inﬂation because costs of gov goods will increase and thus affect the budget (b) Unemployment because when unemployment increases, demand for government services increases 2. White House Ofﬁce a) Smaller than Executive ofﬁce of the President - total of 27 different parts (1) Domestic Policy Council (2) National Security Advisor (3) National Economic Council b) Leads to questions about models of management (1) Strong chief of staff model (a) Thought to have been associated with Reagan, Bush 43, kind of Obama i) In Bush administration, VP Cheney played this role (b) Presidents are busy, there is a lot of information for them to digest before making a decision, this can quickly become overwhelming for a president (c) Willing to delegate a certain amount of authority, esp. to a strong chief of staff (d) Defended by presidents on ground of efﬁciency i) Disadvantage - more dependent on information ﬂow (2) Hub and spoke Model (a) No strong gatekeeping (by chief of staff or cabinet) on information to the president (b) Bill Clinton (before his impeachment) and Jimmy Cater i) both known for appetite for information, liked to read through a lot of technical documents (c) arguably more inefﬁcient i) Advantages - president can evaluate independently C. Types of Bureaucratic Organizations under the president 1. Federal department Secretaries 2. Independent Executive agencies a) CIA b) NASA 3. Independent Regulatory Commissions a) Federal trade commission, consumer product safety commission — make regulations and enforce them 4. Public corporations a) market failure - private sector refuses to do something because high risk, low proﬁt b) Quasi-public organization (1) Eg Amtrak - subsidized (2) National Science Foundation (3) National Endowment of Arts (4) National Endowment of Humanity (a) Federal funding of art is controversial and caught up in cultural wars particularly with social conservatives 4. Some analysts claim that bureaucracy is inefﬁcient. What are some of the reasons that bureaucracy may be inefﬁcient (or not perform well)? According to the research literature discussed in class lecture and in the readings, what types of reforms might help to raise the performance of bureaucracy? D. Performance of Bureaucracy 1. Ways research has tried to measure the success of bureaucracy a) Productivity / Efﬁciency b) Customer service c) Effectiveness 2. Design / Resource a) Sometimes congress will intentionally block funding to agencies / bureaucratic organizations to make the organization ineffective by design or by constraining resources (1) Ways to do this (a) limit funding for employees (b) limit ﬁnes i) Make it so that the private sector will determine “it is rational for us to pollute and pay the ﬁne” (2) Organizational Capture (a) ﬁeld staff (b) Stockholm syndrome - After captives are with their captors, the captive begins to adopt the point of view of the captor i) the ﬁeld staff (those monitoring and regulating people) end up spending a lot of time with the people they are supposed to regulate and end up empathizing with them and not enforcing regulations (1) FAA inspectors (2) Social Servies (a) Early intervention services (b) When caseworkers went into the home (3) Employment / Compensation Regulation (a) If you want to understand performance, you have to understand the incentive structure (b) Employee’s Utility Function i) max income ii) min effort iii) employment constraint (the ﬁrm can still afford you) (c) For most federal employees, they get the same pay or pay increase regardless of performance (d) seniority rule i) employment “last hired, ﬁrst ﬁred” (e) entry level pay (4) Proposals (a) Change employment / compensation i) tie compensation to performance ii) eliminate seniority rule iii) discretion / negotiation over entry level pay (b) Privatization i) radical ii) outsource to contractors iii) rural areas have already privatized ﬁre and EMS services iv) Private Prisons (1) do less training for prison guards and staff (2) poor record in: (a) providing health care (resulted in several wrongful death lawsuits) (b) have a higher ratio of inmates to correction ofﬁcers 5. Analyze the structure of the Federal court system. Discuss differences among district courts, courts of appeal, and the US Supreme Court. U.S. district courts - Courts within the lowest tier of the three-tiered federal court system; courts where litigation begins. U.S. courts of appeals - Courts within the second tier of the three-tiered federal court system, to which decisions of the district courts and federal agencies may be appealed for review. Federal district courts -only 1 judge I. Federal Courts A. Structure 1. Federal District Courts - entry point for most cases except for those that arise under the supreme court’s jurisdiction a) Hear 2 types of cases (1) Criminal Cases (2) Civil Cases - suits that qualify under federal guidelines b) Federal judges are not elected and they serve for life c) More specialized courts called Article I courts (separate from rest of structure) (1) US Tax Court (2) US Court of Appeal for Veterans Claims d) 94 Federal district courts 2. Federal Courts of Appeal a) 13 federal appellate courts b) Normally cases heard by 3 judge panel rather than by full court (with few exceptions) (1) If you do not like the outcome, you can ask the entire court to hear your case 3. US Supreme Court a) 9 justices b) In the event that the court is perfectly split (4-4), the ruling decision from the federal court of appeal is upheld c) Has Original Jurisdiction and Appellate Jurisdiction (1) Majority of cases heard by the Supreme Court are appellate cases which they hear because the cases raise questions about the constitution / interpretation (appeals from state supreme courts and federal appellate courts) B. Review Process and Decision Making in US Supreme Court 1. US Supreme court gets many thousands of requests to hear an appeal. They only take about 75 per year. a) “writ of certiorari” b) Rule of 4 - 4 out of 9 justices must agree to hear the case c) law clerks (1) Signiﬁcant Federal Constitutional question (2) Split in Circuits (3) Reverse precedent (a) Example: Roe v Wade - Texas banned abortion i) Court said women had inferred privacy rights which covers medical rights, but this has to be balanced with the gov’s interest in protecting rights d) Asking for briefs (a) Solicitor general - the law ofﬁcer directly below the attorney general in the US Department of Justice, responsible for arguing cases before the US Supreme Court (b) Friends of the Court Briefs (2) Oral argument (3) Conference (a) Voting - majority rule (b) assignment to vote for majority (c) dissent - reasons why you disagree with the majority 6. According to research completed by political scientists, is there a relationship between public opinion and decision making on the US Supreme Court? (see the textbook). What types of “models” do judges use to (eg. judicial activism, judicial restraint, and others) interpret the US Constitution? Yes there is a relationship between public opinion and decision making p411. I. The Supreme Court A. Models of Constitutional Interpretation 1. Originalism - you should try to ﬁgure out the original meaning of the constitution as intended by the framers (the federalist society) a) All about intent of the framers b) the Constitution does not need to change / evolve with society c) lends itself to a more conservative interpretation of the Constitution 2. Strict Constructionism a) conservative b) “The constitution is plain to understand; easy” If it’s in there, it’s in there —> you’d end up questioning that we have “implied rights” eg privacy rights. We only have expressed rights. 3. Judicial Restraint a) moderate / centrist b) situating courts within the context of broader c) judicial branch is unelected and should be restrained by what the elected branches (i.e. legislative) is doing d) Need to be extremely careful when it comes to overriding the President, Congress, or state governments (i.e. elected government ofﬁces) 4. Judicial activism a) liberal b) Couts are the only branch of gov that can provide relief to people that need relief ie poor people and minorities —> courts have to do politically unpopular things to protect the rights of minorities c) should adapt to how society has changed over time d) eg elastic reading of “commerce clause” that outlawed hotels from discriminating on the basis of race 7. Analyze the process of nominating and approving justices in the Federal courts. 8. Discuss the role played by the Solicitor General, interest groups, and other political actors in the decision making process of the US supreme Court (including the decision by the Court to grant a petition to review a case). the rule of four - An unwritten rule that requires at least four justices to agree that a case warrants consideration before it is reviewed by the U.S. Supreme Court. solicitor general - The third highest ofﬁcial of the U.S. Department of Justice, and the one who represents the national government before the Supreme Court. The solicitor general’s duties include determining whether the government should appeal lower- court decisions; reviewing and modifying, when necessary, the briefs ﬁled in government appeals; and deciding whether the government should ﬁle an amicus curiae brief* in any appellate court.31 The objective is to create a cohesive program for the executive branch in the federal courts. -amicus curiae brief - A brief ﬁled (with the permission of the court) by an individual or group that is not a party to a legal action but has an interest in it. Solicitors general play two different, and occasionally conﬂicting, roles. First, they are advocates for the president’s policy preferences; second, as ofﬁcers of the Court, they traditionally defend the institutional interests of the national government. Solicitors general usually act with considerable restraint in recommending to the Court that a case be granted or denied review. By recommending only cases of general importance, they increase their credibility and their inﬂuence 9. What is the difference between conventional and unconventional participation? What are tactics used by social movements or protect groups that are engaged in unconventional participation? 10. What are some of the factors that shape voting (turnout) in the US? Also, note any recent trends in electoral turnout. 11.Discuss the history of the electoral franchise and voting in the US, with a focus on the right to vote for women, African Americans and members of other minority groups. B. History of the Electoral Franchise 1. Property Requirements a) Examples 2. Women a) Construction of gender roles, inﬂuence on debate over women’s voting rights (public, private spheres). - women should be conﬁned to the “private” sphere, men belong in the public sphere which is gov and the marketplace b) 1848 Seneca Falls Convention (Elizabeth Cady Stanton, Lucretia Mott, and others) c) Post-1868: Attempt to apply 14th Amendment (1868) and 15th Amendment (1870) to women - fails d) Minor changes - late 19th century women could vote in some local elections (Colorado, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming) e) 1920 19th Amendment ratiﬁed, giving women the vote 3. African Americans - (could be an essay on the ﬁnal about this) a) 15th Amendment granted African American men right to vote. b) Post-Reconstruction, 1877-1920, Southern states engage in widespread practices designed to deny the right to vote c) Poll taxes, literacy test, intimidation, coercion. (See data from Piven & Cloward book) (1) Turnout rates for african americans are initially high (2) As the above practices become more institutionalized, turnout decreased (a) Either poll taxes or literacy taxes depressed turnout, but the effect was stingiest in areas that did both d) 1937 Breedlove vs Suttles, S. Court upholds Georgia’s poll tax e) 1940 Only 3% of eligible African Americans in South are registered to vote f) 1944 Smith v Allwright declares as unconstitutional practice of excluding African American from primary elections (on grounds that parties are not private). g) 1963 24th Amendment eliminates poll taxes h) 1965 Voting Rights Act forbids discriminatory literacy tests and other barriers to voter registration; empowers Justice Department to monitor, enforce voting rights. - right now we don’t have pre clearance - at large districts (1) Closing DMV ofﬁces (2) Closing polling stations (3) Voter ID laws (dumb because we don’t have a voter fraud problem) (4) Shorten period of early voting (5) shortening hours election day 4. Other Minority Groups a) Native Americans: Although Indian Citizenship Act passed in 1924 declared non- citizen Native Americans born in the US as a citizens and granted right to vote, many states barred them until 1948. b) Asians: excluded from citizenship based upon racial categorization, and denied voting rights (see examples) c) Latinos: In Texas and Southwest, local ofﬁcials employed widespread intimidation to prevent voting. Jones Act (1917) gave Puerto Ricans opportunity to become citizens and migrate to the US, but voting levels climbed very slowly. Voting Rights Act improved situation, although many lawsuits ﬁled in Arizona and New Mexico in 1970s. Amendments in 1975 to Voting Rights Act allows assistance to individuals whose ﬁrst language not English. 12. According to the readings, what are some of the possible reasons that would explain non- voting in the US? Has the so-called “Motor Voter” bill helped to raise electoral turnout? 13. Analyze the Temporary Assistance to Needy Families Programs (TANF) program. When was the program created? What are some of the eligibility requirements? What do the data suggest about trends in the FANF caseload? What share of families in poverty receive TANF? I. Case Studies in Public Policy: Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) A. Overview 1. Comparing means-tested programs with entitlement programs a) Eligibility and contributions (1) Means-tested: TANF, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (2) Entitlement: Social Security, Unemployment Insurance - ear marked tax (you pay in, you get out), social insurance (3) American politics - meritocracy, voluntarism b) Political legitimation of menas-tested vs. entitlements 2. 1996 Welfare Reform (Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Act) a) Assumptions made by reformers b) Long-term dependency among AFDC (Aid to Families with Dependent Children, 1935) recipients c) Intergenerational transmission of dependency d) Impact of AFDC on out-of-wedlock births and female-headed households 3. Welfare Reform: Replacing AFDC with TANF a) Time limits for eligibility (1) 5 years (60 months) for all recipients, regardless of entry and exit from the program (after 1996). Hardship exemptions may be requested at that point; at discretion of states, and rarely granted. (2) Legal immigrants, including legal permanent residents, are barred unless they have been in the country for ﬁve years or longer (refugees with asylum may get waivers). b) Work requirements for Adults who are not disabled (1) Adults without disabilities are required to be working within 24 months of receiving beneﬁts; states can and do impose a work requirement prior to 24 months. (2) Requirements for states: (a) 50% of the eligible caseload must be working (or in a work activity) 30 hours per week (20 hours per week for a single parent with young children). The rate increases to 90% for the share of the caseload with 2- parent households. (b) In some cases, training and education classes may be used to meet eligibility. c) Block grant to states (where the fed gov provides a certain amount of money to states and states have to contribute a certain amount) (1) Since 1996, the amount provided by the Federal government to states has been ﬁxed at 16.5 billion. Due to inﬂation, this represents a reduction of about 33% (constant 2010 US$) (2) States were required to maintain 80% o their AFDC spending (at 1994 level) to qualify; in some cases this would be reduced to 75% of their AFDC spending (at 1994 level) - for example, if a state imposed a more restricted work requirement. (3) In constant dollars, the amount the states spend is now less than half o their 1994 spending on AFDC. d) Income thresholds vary by state (1) In 2012, for example, for a family single parent with 2 children, the maximum varied from: (a) Alabama: $268 (16.8% of federal poverty level) (b) California $1,258 (79.1% of federal poverty level) (c) Nevada $1,447 (91% of federal poverty level) (d) Texas $401 (25.2 of federal poverty level) (2) Many states count and limit asset ownership against eligibility I. TANF - conclusion A. Effects of reform 1. Trends in beneﬁts a) 2015 median beneﬁt across all states for a family of 3 (2 kids, 1 parent): $429 / month (*for this section he repeated several times that we need to remember that these numbers have not been adjusted for inﬂation over time since the reform in 1996) (1) In 14 states a family of 3 got $300 or less (2) some of these families are eligible for other beneﬁts (a) Most overlap with: i) SNAP (Nutrition program which we call food stamps) ii) Median value of SNAP beneﬁts was $400/month b) 1996-2014 (1) In 1996 TANF covered 66 out of 100 poor families (2) 2014 TANF covered 23 out of 100 poor families (3) this demonstrates that the proportion of poor families covered by TANF beneﬁts has decreased 2. Trend in caseload a) In 1996: 12.6 million total number of individuals on TANF program, of that 8.6 million were children b) In 2015: 2.8 million total people, aka huge decline c) Hypothesis about explanation for the huge decline: (1) Employment - work requirements (2) Time limits / sanctions - individuals either timed out, or failed to meet a program requirement and were made ineligible (3) Entry berries - people not applying because the criteria have become more difﬁcult to meet (4) Conducted both observational and experimental studies from 1996-2002: (a) Grogger and Karoly: looked at 35 experimental studies and tried to parse out which factors explained the decrease over time (b) Found that time limits and sanctions explain most of the change (c) What happens in labor markets does not affect the number of people on the program 3. Denison and Klerma 1996-2002 a) Try to answer question about whether work requirements help lift people out of poverty (1) the bulk of the evidence pointed to the fact that work requirements did not help people get out of poverty (a) Most people had: i) a highschool diploma or less ii) non-continuous work history iii) minimum wage (1) These people did not have enough earning potential to be lifted out of poverty, which is what made the work requirements ineffective in lifting people out of poverty (they did not acquire any new skills or get job training) 4. What do states spend TANF funds on? a) 2014: (1) 26% of funds spent on income support (2) 24% job training / childcare (3) 30% “other” (a) couples counseling (b) anti-abortion “pregnancy counseling” (c) early childhood education (Head Start) (d) Financial aid for college students - substitution (states did not want to raise taxes for ﬁnancial aid, so they use TANF funds) b) “takeaway for the exam” [according to Tuman himself] is that when states were given a block grant for funds and then authority on how to spend the money, states end up on spending the TANF funds in “creative” ways, as shown above 14. Analyze the Social Security Program, with a focus on the history of the program, eligibility fro beneﬁts and coverage, and potential problems with ﬁnancing. Also discuss some of the reforms that have been proposed. II. Social Security (we will learn why it is more difﬁcult to reform an entitlement program than a program like welfare) A. Background 1. History of the program a) 1935: Social Security Act (retirees, survivors, unemployment insurance, which is cooperative) b) 1972: SSI beneﬁts SSI (disability) c) Other Program provisions (Medicare, veterans’ disability, black lung) 2. Assumptions of Policy-Makers a) Savings of workers (1) clear data show that employees do not save for retirement or emergencies unless they are forced or strongly motivated to (2) Retirement programs in the private sector did not exist when Social Security was founded b) Adequacy of private sector or non-proﬁt coverage (charities) c) Male “breadwinner” model B. Program Structure and Coverage 1. Payroll tax (Federal Insurance Contributions Act, or FICA tax). a) 6.2% on $118,500 (employee) b) 6.2% on $118,500 (employer) c) (Medicare is 1.45% each on all income; individuals $200,000 pay 0.9% or more). 2. Ear-marked tax a) The FICA tax goes into a trust fund, administered by at the Social Security Administration. Surpluses may only be invested in government securities (Federal bonds). US general federal revenues may not be used to support Social Security. 3. Distributive effects a) High income workers receive less as a % of pre-retirement income compared low-income; but because the FICA tax is capped, high income employees pay less as a % of income in the tax. 4. Coverage a) June 2013 (1) All beneﬁciaries 57,469,232 (2) Retired Workers and dependents 40,298,999 (3) Survivors 6,216,500 (4) Disabled workers and dependents 10,953,733 C. Challenges Facing the Program 1. Demographic Change a) Shrinking Workforce (1) US Fertility Decline (a) Fertility rate (births per 1,000 women, ages 15-44, by year) i) 1946 101.9 ii) 1956 121 iii) 1964 104.7 iv) 1980 68.4 v) 1990 70.9 vi) 2000 67.5 vii) 2010 66.2 (b) Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2) Reduction in growth rate in US labor force. Most growth from entry of “Baby Boomers” and women in the labro force has already occurred. (a) Labor force in the US grew at an annual rate of 1.7% during the 1960’s, but slowed to 1.1% in the 1990s. (CPS data) (b) Average annual growth in labor force is projected at 0.6% for the next 50 years Wk 5 Tuesday (c) The US is not alone, Demographers forecast that Japan’s labor force will experience a 12% decline between 2000 and 2020 (d) Because social security depends on contributions from current workers to support retirees, the trend in the labor force will create problems. In 1960, the ratio of covered workers to retirees was 5.1 to 1. This fell to 3.2 to 1 in 1980, and has remained about 2.9 to 1 in 2010. b) Baby Boomers (1) Baby Boomers- the cohort born between 1946 and 1964 - Since 2010, about 10,000 “Boomers” per day will reach the age of 65. AS a result, the share of the US population aged 65 or older will increase from approximately 13% in 2010 to 17% in 2030. After that, most Boomers will be at or close to retirement age (although note that the Boomers born after 1960 must already wait until age 67 to claim full beneﬁts). c) Life expectancy (1) Demographers estimate that in 1935, average life expectancy for people age 65 was 12.5 years. By 2012, life expectancy increased by 20.4 years for women reaching age 65, and about 18 years for men. This will increase again through 2030. Still, recent data suggest that Boomers are more prone to diabetes and other risk factors. 2. Cost a) Cost of the program is affected by the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA). Due to the Great Recession, and low inﬂation, the COLA did not increase in 2010 and 2011. But prior increases have expanded cost. b) In 2012, the mean (average) Social Security beneﬁt for a retired individual was $1,230. the maximum beneﬁt in 2013 for an individual claiming beneﬁts at age 65 was $2,533 (if age 70, $3,350). 3. Projected Deﬁcit a) If we leave the ﬁnancing for the program the way it is, there will be a deﬁcit at some point. The program would then only be able to pay out 80% of beneﬁts. D. Reform Proposals 1. Raise Retirement Age 2. Slow Growth in Beneﬁts (refers to cost of living adjustment) 3. Raise Payroll Tax a) Increase or eliminate the cap on income subject to the FICA tax b) Increase the rate, or make it progressive (employers may compensate by laying off people) 4. Radical Suggestions a) Stock Market Investment (1) would create volatility in the market (2) putting gov funds into private companies - agenda issues (3) market correction risk b) Partial Privatization (1) If you are 50 or older, the employee can take the required 6.2% and save it for himself. The gov would make sure that wherever you saved / invested this money was approved. These companies would have to be regulated and licensed. The employer would still pay the required amount into social security. (2) This would not solve the ﬁscal deﬁcit. To guarantee traditional social security, Congress would have to pass a supplemental tax. c) Full Privatization (1) Eliminate Social Security Administration; both employees and employers still have to contribute, everything goes into private investment. E. Politics of Reform 1. AFDC / TANF —> reform 2. Social Security —> No reform 3. Pluralism a) (Groups on demand side, Politicians on supply side) b) Children and people under AFDC (1) not organized into an interest group c) the largest interest group in the country is the AARP (their biggest priority is keeping social security the way it is) [exacerbated by the fact that old people move where it is warm, often to swing states such as Nevada and Florida]
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