January 31, 2017 Leading into World War I ● Jingoism: during heightened nationalism - war hysteria ● Nationalism ○ Pan-Germanism: German state building on the creation of the new German empire. ○ Pan-Slovianism: Slovenian unification ● WWI ○ Triple If you want to learn more check out all atoms possess the ability to do work
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Entente: France, UK, Russia ○ Allies: Germany, Austria Hungary, Italy ○ Greater sense of insecurity leads to alliances for insurance policies ● Events that helped the collapse of the international system and Concert of Europe that leads to the outbreak of WWI ○ The Russo-Japanese War (last week’s notes) ■ Russia is blocked in Asia after this ■ Russia begins to focus on Europe especially the Balkan states ○ The first Moroccan crisis ■ The imperial struggle - the Great Powers are arguing over who is going to get control over Morocco. ■ France wanted it and then Germany decided that they wanted Morocco too so they made it a crisis. ● Germany made a confrontation about France’s bid for Morocco ● Germany knew that Britain and France had been getting closer and had made their first agreement in 1904. ● No one was so sure how deep the relationship was - was it a military understanding? They wanted to find out. ○ Caused a problem for France to see if Britain responds. ● The Germans pushed too far and provoked a response that would not have happened otherwise. ○ What happened: they sent the German emperor to Morocco to say they had interest in Morocco. ○ The French were horrified that they were getting competition. So they backed off right away. ○ The Germans interpreted that the French backed off because the British told them to ○ Morocco disappears off the map for a bit ○ Consequence: in London, the view was that Germany was an impressive state and that they should be prepared that if there is a crisis they should be prepared for war - France and Britain decided to make military arrangements and they made military plans together in case they had an issue with Germany.■ If they hadn’t have done this then Germany could have won the first world war. ○ 1908 the crisis over the fate of the province of Bosnia ■ It was technically part of the Ottoman Empire but was run by Austria Hungary ■ In 1908 Austria Hungary wanted to take Bosnia completely from the Ottoman Empire ■ Russia felt that they had been crossed by the Austro-Hungarians about the fate of Bosnia ● So, they decide they need more “big power” support for the future ○ They look to Britain (already allies with France) ○ They’re both increasingly concerned about Germany ○ Once the Russians don’t have a fleet anymore (and they don’t), the British are less concerned about the Russians ○ So they become allies - complete the Triple Entente ○ 1911 Second Moroccan Crisis (Agadir Crisis) ■ France now feels they have enough diplomatic support to take over Morocco ■ German government decides to use Morocco as a test again and object to letting France take Morocco ■ Germans decide that they want an equivalent colony from France ■ Leave the German emperor home and send a German gunboat to Morocco ■ Germany doesn’t get any serious compensation ■ Government in Paris thinks they should back down but another party in the government takes a hard line against Germany ■ In London, British Finance Minister, Louis George, is viewed by most people at the time as very passive - he had opposed an earlier war that Britain fought in South Africa because he didn’t think it was a war that needed to be fought. ● He took the view that this German provocative action showed that Germany was a real threat to British influence ● He makes his Mansion House Speech ● He makes a speech that Britain is going to be ready for defense and they are going to pay for it. ● Beginning of the probing going on ○ Escalating international environment of tension ■ Greater air of uncertainty in the international system ● Britain controls the route from Europe to Asia by controlling the Suez Canal ○ Therefore Germany can’t go to Asia without Britain controlling their route ■ They want to build a railway that could bypass this route ■ The Silk Road (originally Baghdad Railway): built from Berlin to Baghdad - has issues when you get to Istanbul● A way to get from Europe to Asia without Britain being able to stop you ● Has a military aspect - can move troops ○ Britain gets concerned with how the railway will go down to the gulf - from where they could go by sea ■ Britain gives protection to create borders of what will be Kuwait to stop German water access ○ Russians are worried that the route will go north and threaten them ○ It causes tension between Germany and Britain and Germany and Russia ○ They finally reach a solution that everyone is happy with for the route of the Baghdad Railway in 1914 - 6 months after the archduke is shot ■ These crises feed into and take time to recover ● Linked to the railway is colonial competition ○ Germany would complain that they came late to the imperial game ○ Why not give Germany a colonial empire to keep them occupied? - British idea ○ Britain decides to give Germany the Portuguese colonies - no one told the Portuguese about this and it didn’t happen because the first world war happened ○ Many issues that caused the war are solved when the war breaks out but they are still feeders to the conflict. ● The naval rivalry between Britain and Germany ○ Classical arms race ○ First of the modern arms races ○ Bismark is dismissed from office in 1889 by a new emperor ■ Emperor says that Bismarck was more about Germany’s weaknesses than strengths -- Bismarck was just more aware than others of their limitations ■ A new course for the great ship of Germany ● Weltpolitik - world policy/global approach to affairs ● Bismark was only concerned with European affairs ● Consequences of Germany’s changing policy was that Germany wanted to show Russia that they were the boss ○ Russia was undergoing a process of modernization - this takes money so they would have to borrow money from Germany ○ Germany stops loaning money to them because they wanted Russia to do what they wanted ○ So Russia got money from somewhere else - Paris ■ Russian Tzar visits Paris 1892 - France and Russia begin their first stage of an alliance ■ Germany finds it frustrating to try to break this relationship ○ 1897-1898 Germany starts making a high seas fleet ■ Seizing a port from China (Kao-Chow)● So that their fleets in Asia had a place to refuel. ● Germany needs a fleet to protect the port ■ Germany threat assessment: building fleet means adding Britain to list of potential adversaries and that means you’re looking seawards instead of paying attention to land (Germany thinks they will be able to do both but they fail) - Leading to the Moroccan Crisis ● Germany is getting distracted ■ Germany isn’t the only one thinking about making a high seas fleet...this is the most sophisticated type of weapon that states could have at this time and only very sophisticated nations had it ● Admiral Von Tirpitz ○ His idea to seize the port of Kao Chow ○ The Risk Theory: Britain is most heavily invested in its navy, we will never be able to out do their navy and keep security. They just need to build a navy that is strong enough that it’s a risk to Britain - so that Britain seeks Germany as an ally rather an enemy -not successful ○ In 1898 - Germany has 7 battle ships and the British have 38 ○ By 1918 they’ll have 60 battleships and the British will probably have 90 battleships and that’s not as bad of a ratio when the time comes. ○ When that happens, Britain will compromise with Germany ■ Can Britain launch a preemptive strike against them? They convince themselves that Britain will do this. “Copenhagened” - basically the British are an enemy and they heighten their threat. Britain actually never thought about this and it was a self imposed threat ■ Expensive technology is hard to stop the building of so they couldn’t just stop building battleships when they felt threatened.■ Tirpitz gets his first navy and the British Parliament decides to build 19 new battleships ■ Battle of Manila Bay 1898 news comes to Germany so Germany doubles their number of battleships ■ Now British start building more battleships ■ Now it’s naval building for the sake of naval building ○ 1900 the Boxer Rebellion in China ○ 1900-1902 Germany starts appearing as the bad guy. ■ How does Britain deal with this? They keep building ships ● They change their doctrine that had a foreign policy of avoiding alliances until a crisis appears ○ This starts with Japan - Anglo-Japanese Alliance ○ Between 1904 and 1912, there are a series of naval understandings with France that results with France letting Britain get more ships back to the home waters ○ Russians will look after the Balkans ● Britain is able to make many alliances ● Changing the diplomatic map of the world. ■ Germany is thinking about negotiating but then 1905 British launches a new battleship - Dreadnought / HMS (Her Majesty's Ship) ● They use oil - causes nations to want control of oil supplies for their navy once this becomes the general battleship ● A fleet of Dreadnoughts would defeat a pre-Dreadnought fleet that is 3 times its size. ● It wasn’t long before Germany could build Dreadnoughts too ○ Now Germany can start building one for one with Britain on Dreadnoughts ● 1906-1908 a classic arms race with the acceleration crisis ○ Who will build more ● For Britain, the navy is its first and only line of defense ○ Germans thought that British taxpayers wouldn’t pay to keep up the building but they did for defense ○ “We want 8 and we won’t wait” - newspaper title that got out that Britain was willing to keep building ● By 1912-1914 Britain had naval agreements with Japan, France, and Russia to make sure that they can maximize their naval strength ○ Had accidental foreign policy consequences ○ Germany can’t compete any longer because they still have a large army - somewhere between 2 and 3 million soldiers at this time ○ British army is about 100,000 so they have enough money to keep up the navy● PROBLEM OF POLICY COORDINATION ○ The crisis of 1914 reaches its height in August 1914 ■ German emperor makes the decision that Germany will go to war and invade France ● They told the army but not the navy ● They were not integrated ● The naval rivalry had converted what had been a very amiable British/German relationship into one of antagonism and pushing Britain into an alliance against Germany ○ Great power rivalry - how do powers survive going on ● Take away lessons for IR in this period ○ How arms races work ○ Problems with coordination ○ Problems with public opinions in international relations February 2, 2017 Key Take Away Aspects of the Great War ● The spark that ignited WWI ○ Due to nationalism in central Europe ○ Austro-Hungarians and the slavs all lined in the large country ■ Austrian Parliament, Hungarian Parliament, over ruling emperor Franz Josef (been emperor for 66 years at this point in time) and his heir to the throne was Franz Ferdinand ● Franz Ferdinand was coming up with plans of what they should do with the empire once he’s in power. ○ Rather than have a dual system, have a 3 way system. Have the power be split 3 ways and then have the empire be formed around a trial system so that the disaffected ethnic groups could come back into the empire. ○ Although he was giving more rights for the ethnic groups, the ethnic groups saw him as an enemy because if he succeeded than a greater Yugoslavia would fail. ■ Serbia wanted to the be the central unifying country in the region ○ Narodna Obrana - “Black Hand Society” the terrorist group operating secretly out of Serbia. Willing to use political terror to promote their goals. Terror is one of their major ways that they achieve their political goals. Target was usually the senior figure of the political party (usually assassinations). ■ There have been many assassinations in this time period so that is what this group is playing off of. ■ Eventually assassinated Franz Ferdinand■ To what did Serbia know of this group’s dealings? The head of this group was also the head of Serbian military intelligence. ○ Franz Ferdinand makes a symbolic visit to Serbia (June 28) to celebrate the crushing defeat of the Serbian people by the Ottoman Empire. They see it as they stood up against the foreign and strong aggressor. They see Franz Ferdinand as the new foreign and strong aggressor who is coming to their country on their national day. “The Black Hand Society” decided they’re going to assassinate Franz Ferdinand. He was in a car and they threw a grenade into his car. He takes the grenade and throws it out of the car. He was going back to the train station to get him out of town and the driver and Franz Ferdinand are arguing about where to go. While they’re arguing one of the assassins (Sarajevo) walks up to the car and shoots him dead. ○ Franz Josef was relieved that his heir was killed because he didn’t agree with Franz Ferdinand’s policies. So someone else is appointed. ○ Austrians decide to use this event as the basis to crush Serbia so that for the next generation they’re not a problem. - Serbians don’t expect this so they give in to almost everything except they won’t let Austria Hungary investigate what was going on in Serbia at the time of planning the assassination because they won’t give up their sovereignty. ○ One month after the assassination Austria Hungary declares war on Serbia. The capital of Serbia just has a river between itself and Austria Hungary so the capital is really vulnerable to attack. - expected to be an easy win. ● Start of the alliances ○ Serbia is patrons with Russia and turns to them for help ○ Austrians have an alliance with Germany (if there is a problem with Russia, AKA if Russia mobilized their whole army) ○ Germany gets concerned because Russia is mobilizing and also on Germany borders so they start mobilizing ○ Russia is allies with France and if both Germany and Austria Hungary are mobilizing then France has to mobilize too. ○ Germans invaded Belgium to get to France - Britain had an agreement to protect Belgium (a neutral country) so Britain joins the war against Belgium. ○ By mid-August, all the great powers of Europe will be at war with each other ○ Japan joins in support of Britain○ Italy flips sides in the middle - they were allied with Austria and Germany but their army was fighting in North Africa so they couldn’t go to war. They filled in the time by holding a diplomatic auction so whoever could give a better reward for Italy to get on their side wins - Britain/France wins Italy over. ● Schlieffen Contingency War Plan: what do we do if Germany is confronted by Russia and France simultaneously - it’s almost impossible to win a 2 front war ○ Called for a knockout-blow of France, easier and then turn to Russia hoping they haven’t finished mobilizing yet. ○ Must be quick in French defeat and get to Russia in time ● Crisis Management begins to be a term used ● Cuban Missile Crisis ● How does the world accidentally come to have one of the most devastating conflicts in history? ● As Britain, one of the last European powers to declare war, Forest Grey says “the lights are being turned off all over Europe and who knows if we will see them lit again in our lifetime.” ● Front line view was that the war was going to take a hundred years. ● The danger of war was now heightened by technology - new highly developed instruments of destruction. ● At the end of the war, about 30 million people in Europe had died. History of WWI ● 3 phases in the writing of history ○ The heroic writing of history ○ Chain of causation ○ Neutral history (Tragic History) - when the historian no longer has a stake in the outcome of the story but is merely writing to understand how an event came about. ● “The sorry tale of reckless leadership” ● Was Germany responsible for the outbreak of WWI? ○ The world guilt question had a sudden immediacy to it. ○ Germany wanted and planned for the war ○ Disillusionment with the gains of the war- the merchants of death thesis claiming the some supported the war because they were making money during it (weaponry) ○ Hitler’s reasons for the war make Germany’s role in WWI rational ● There were 4 things that needed to happen to explode the regional issue to a global war ○ The consensus of international relations were corroded ○ German policy had to be willing to risk war in pursuit of its national growth ○ Other actors had to be willing to turn Germany’s actions into an atmosphere of all-out war ○ 1914: the crisis of the Balkans with some Russian detention in it (the assassination of Franz Ferdinand)● The war started with a number of offenses - every army had the idea that you take the offense and you charge so you win. They all failed ● Cavalry can no longer outrun machine guns ○ Horses also need a lot of food ○ So you used the soldier and have the soldiers march together and go forward - not the best idea either ● Germany is able to capture Brussels in just 3 days and then is outside Paris. ● Germany found the most useful tool: trenches ○ The invention of the tank comes next. ■ The fastest it could go in the first world war was 9 miles an hour. ● Problems of generalship ○ The Russian army was fast and the general thought he deserved a medal just for that ○ They needed new tactics but that takes time and training ○ The generals are under pressure to win this war because the war was only planned to last a few months but it kept going ○ The new ideas in fighting only really come in in 1917 ○ Generals decide that one of the things they could do is make a whole and before they can refill the hole they break it. ○ “The generals don’t seem to learn very fast” ○ They become more desperate to find ways to break through ○ 1915 Germans are the first to use poison gas. ■ Problem with it is that it’s heavy and it sits there and it’ll sit in the trenches and the shell holes. They drive their forces into the frozen gas - backfire ● Not much of a war at sea ○ Germany gets through Denmark but it is sent back home by a stronger British navy ○ Sinking of the Lusitania - Germany sunk British boat. Contributed to American entry to the war. ■ Then comes the effect of the US entering the war ■ 1917 the US enters the war ■ October 1917 Russia collapses and leaves the war right when US gets there ● Now Germany can pull troops from the Eastern front to the Western front ■ America is the factor that takes the Allies into victory ■ Germany’s allies have run out of steam ■ Germany from the very beginning of the war had been cut off and then 1917 the food supply starts to collapse in Germany and they are beginning to feel the full strains of the war ■ Britain was able to feed their empire to keep themselves going ■ Germans finally ask for an end to the fighting - asked for an armistice (end to the use of arms) the prelude to a peace negotiation■ Finally in Paris they agreed to the terms that the fighting will stop and a peace conference will come ■ Fighting ends at 11pm on November 11. ● A111118 - License plate on the car Archduke Franz Ferdinand was in. February 3, 2017 Discussion Questions ● What was the Schlieffen Plan and describe it ○ 40 day plan to get France under control in order to move over and defeat Russia ○ They underestimated how quickly the Russians could mobilize ● What was the original goal of the Bolsheviks in 1914 ○ Russian Social Democratic Party ○ To spread socialism ■ specifically Germany because they were the neighbor and they were a powerhouse and it would be helpful for them to support the revolution in Western Europe. ■ Germany was also excluded from Western European nations so they could relate with Russia. ■ Germany was the most mechanized and industrial country in Europe. The Bolsheviks thought that if they made Germany a Soviet Republic then they would spread it around Europe with their industrialization trends. ● Name of the advance warship the British launched ○ Drednought ○ One could sink 4 normal ships ● What plan did not succeed ○ Stir up revolutions in the Middle East and Russian caucuses. ○ Islamic revolutions ○ British offered their protection to Egypt and other countries in the Ottoman Empire so they stopped this. ○ Hashemites - family that Britain gave Jordan and other Middle Eastern countries to ● Which Polish city did they respond to the advances in - stops the revolution militarily ○ Warsaw ○ Battle of Warsaw 1920 ○ Stops the invasion of Poland by Russia ○ They went to conquer Lithuania and Ukraine instead Discussion Notes ● Japan plays a smart role and consolidated in Asia ● Ottomans fought on behalf of the Central Powers (Germany, Austria-Hungary, Bulgaria) ● Ottomans use Armenian radiators - part of cause of Armenian genocide ● Ottoman Empire falls ● Balkan Wars (1912-1913) ○ Bulgaria, Macedonia, etc.■ Thrace ○ Ottomans, Serbs, etc. ■ Want to take pieces of Greece, Macedonia, Bulgaria ■ Now after this Bulgaria wants to be independent ■ More immediate goal is to get more territory from the Ottomans