Final Study Guide - Notes Packet
Final Study Guide - Notes Packet POLS 1336
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This 24 page Study Guide was uploaded by Meredith Johnson on Sunday April 26, 2015. The Study Guide belongs to POLS 1336 at University of Houston taught by Richard Murray in Spring2015. Since its upload, it has received 405 views.
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Date Created: 04/26/15
Race for delegates formally starts in Iowa Iowa doesn39t use a primary it uses a caucus evangelical Christians show up maybe even as much of 60 of those people are evangelical Christians lowa gets an inordinate amount of undeserved attention Next new Hampshire not a good state for Evangelical Christians Then South Carolina not just for evangelicals but Baptists And then Ted Cruz is popular in Texas But the most important thing is getting ahead of the other candidates Huckabee Santorum Jindall and Carson But if he gets ahead of the other candidates the establishment will be dismayed they believe he will lose in the election Frontrunner currently Jeb Bush but weak frontrunner quotnot ready for a third Bush in thirty yearsquot Scott Walker candidate but stumbled establishment does not have someone to unite behind NOT RAND PAUL they see him as unreliable on foreign policy national defense but that might be who they39re stuck with So if Cruz can hit a seam his chances might be better than people estimate he39s focused and driven quotman with a missionquot Problems with other guys Huckabee run before but doesn39t really seem too focused on winning running a casual campaign organizing trips of ministers to Israel Cruz is 100 focused on the campaign Santorum did ok in 2012 but didn39t have any competitors for evangelical Christian voters Jindall smart like Cruz focused like Cruz Governor of a state where it39s a real job a disadvantage because when they leave who will mind the state Louisiana is a poor state with a history of corruption although Jindall is not a corrupt governor Carson attractive mediafriendly neurosurgeon nice television president strong critic of Obamacare Has never run for public of ce If Cruz wins Texas primary next March he may be a de nite competitor Upshot may be in the race for at least a year A long shot to be the nominee but a de nite competitor This was a quiet day in class because he wasn t feeling too well Shrug Political Parties 0 Parties that contest in a democratic system to secure political power and when in power pursue a particular political policy Democrat v Republican 0 Obama as Democrat want to enact healthcare reform bill Democratic seats won in Congress amp passed this law 0 When did political parties appear 0 First appeared in the US 0 Constitution says nothing about political parties because they didn39t really exist Framers didn39t contemplate them because they had no experience with them Knew something about factions but didn39t like the idea Example 4 years after Constitution Jefferson wrote a letter to a friend quotif I could but get to heaven in a political party I would not goquot doesn39t like the idea at all When Washington leaves of ce warns fellow Americans against quotthe spirit of party factionquot 0 But very quickly after the constitution parties emerged o How Created the new Congress Senate and House of Representatives a collective decisionmaking body of the Congress with many members Within the Washington admin he turned over a lot of political power to Alexander Hamilton 0 Hamilton a man of quotbig ideasquot lndustrialist wanted a strong commercial United States Federalist supported centralization of government to bind states together Pushed a lot of particular policies 0 Bank of the United States 0 Fund the revolutionary war debt 0 Peace treaty with England on terms that favored England Faced problem of collective action because these measures were controversial and mostly opposed Decided to organize a subgroup of members that were dedicated to this program called themselves the Federalists o Committed to a strong united states a strong national government 0 The Federalist group helped pass these measures In response to the organization of the Federalist party Jefferson organized a counterparty the AntiFederalists Problem don39t have the vote fewer members in congress So get more of the AntiFeds elected O O First political parties Federalists vs AntiFederalists or Jeffersonian party Despite Washington39s warning when leaving of ce the Adams Jefferson election is fought out along cear party lines The third US election is a clear partisan election In 1820 the Jeffersonian party splits apart At that time nominees are elected by caucus Crawford was put forward but rejected so campaigns were run out in the country 0 One of only two elections where no one got a majority in the electoral college AndrewJackson lost disappointed in being quotcheatedquot out of the presidency set out to organize a new national political party Democrats When John Quincy Adams runs again is defeated by new Democratic party and Jackson is elected Those in opposition to Jackson39s politics organized a new political party the Whigs Period of about 20 years of intense party competition cose elections between Democrats and Whigs Divisive issue slavery Democrats successful at pushing it aside Northern Whigs broke from Southern Whigs and the Whig party collapsed in the 18505 1854 new political party meets the Republican party 0 Made up of many old Northern Whigs However very regional have no power in the south 0 Still make the election very close 1860 Lincoln is elected because the other parties are divided Triggers southern secession and the coming of the civil war So republican party is welllaunched won the war victory over the South New party system Republican party in power Democrats emerging from the war Starts in the 18605 closely related to how one fought in the war Southerners mostly Democrats Northerners mostly Republican The third party system in the United States Named of parties still the same today but the values of the parties have changed Minor parties Populist party 0 William Jennings Brian nominee for the Democratic Party against William McKinley Brian won most of the territory but Republicans won in states with more electoral vote Brian regarded as a radical who wanted to upset the economic applecart In the 18905 to 1930 twoparty system Republicans clearly advantaged party Through this period Wilson is the only democratic president In the 19305 the Great Depression government was weak and ineffective provided no safety net Republicans dominant at that time blamed for the Depression amp routed from of ce By 1832 the election is basically quotanybody but Hooverquot Great opportunity for the Democrats nominate the governor of New York Franklin Roosevelt Runs a conservative campaign criticizes Hoover for spending too much money vows to aid the US with traditional economic policies 0 But the banking system collapsing In office in 1933 stops banks pushes legislation that insures the deposits of citizens Stabilizes country c The First Hundred Days Roosevelt and Congress controlled by Democrats pushes through a huge range of new legislation the quotNew Dealquot 0 Very popular Fireside Chats radio broadcasts from Roosevelt inspires a lotofcon dence So people feel better economy stops crashing government adopts more positive programs Roosevelt trying to follow through his campaign promises to slash spending balance the budget 0 Economy is stabilizing but not coming back yet Keynesian economics a quotparadox of savingquot o If everybody starts saving money no one will spend 0 In these emergency situations the economy will not automatically rebound the government has to step in and stimulate the economy Roosevelt buys into this second New Deal 0 Democratic historically statesrights not for federal power but now Roosevelt is abandoning the upper classes quotredistributing wealthquot to little people 0 Stimuli increased government spending direct work programs 0 A huge change in direction for national policy safety net with social security workers compensation injury compensation o lmmensely popular 0 In 1937 Roosevelt decides to cut back raises taxes cuts spending 0 Minidepression World War II breaks USA out of the depression 0 Rearming reopening factories Roosevelt wins four consecutive elections presides over the New Deals the strategy to win WWII So this leads to a period wherein the Democrats dominate won the war rescued country from the Depression 0 1930s to 19605 Democratic coalition is formidable Has the support of the South 0 Popular with Catholic Jews Labor Union Liberals and for the rst time many Blacks begin to vote for Democrats 0 Big diverse but a winning coalition Political parties in the United States focus on winning elections by running candidates under their name Since the beginning 1 Federalists vs Antifederalists 2 Democrats vs Whigs 3 Democrats vs Republicans Fourth Era Republicans majority party Democrats minority Fifth Era Democrats majority Republicans minority Lasted from the 19305 1960s 0 South was still solidly Democratic 0 Still not acceptable for many white Southerners to say they were RepubHcan Catholics had rallied behind Democrats since Al Smith candidacy in 1928 Labor unions becoming powerful associated with the Democratic party Liberals gravitating to the Democratic party Blacks also gravitating to the Democratic party These changes introduced a major element of tension Liberals vs white Southerners Trouble in 1948 0 Presidential convention in Philadelphia Truman wanted to quottamp downquot the differences on race 0 Lost control on race 0 Humphrey introduced civil rights plank passed deeply offended Southern conservatives Truman got reelected but trouble in the party Republicans won president by running Eisenhower but the Democrats came back in 1960 ran jack Kennedy Flip between Democrats and the south was very severe Kennedy got nomination in LA but knew he was going to have trouble in the south asked Lyndon johnson to come on the tickets leader of the Southern democrats Under legal integration quotall hell breaking loosequot Kennedy administration had to respond Endorsed a comprehensive civil rights bi o quotwasn39t going anywherequot Facing reelection Kennedy trying to pull South together the factions of Southern democrats not cooperating Arranged a political visit with Lyndon johnson was assassinated in Dallas Johnson passed the civil rights bill was nominated to be Presidential candidate against conservative Republican Goldwater Very deliberately chose the civil rights battle although he knew it would deeply split the White South gured the Democrats could stand the loss of conservatives And was right crushed Goldwater Despite this victory it fell apart at rst country rallied behind johnson39s war on Vietnam but the war was going poorly public began to push back particularly within the Democratic Party So Johnson had two splits the unhappy white Southern conservatives who were okay with Vietnam but not happy with civil rights the young people subject to the draft happy with civil rights objected to Vietnam A big antiwar wing in Democrat party Republicans largely ok but Democrats weren39t And these splits dramatically reduced Democratic voting base So by 1968 the president s popularity had dropped and he announced he would not be running nor would he accept nomination Eugene McCarthy already running againstjohnson joined by Robert Kennedy and Humphrey the incumbent vicepresident After the assassination of Robert Kennedy McCarthy and Humphrey both shut down campaigning the nomination in Chicago was a disaster Humphrey narrowly defeated by Nixon he becomes the new Republican president Kevin Phillips39 book quotThe Emerging Republican Majorityquot Thesis dissatis ed white Southerners abandoning the Democratic Party After the Watergate scandal the Republican majority had to be abandoned Gerald Ford was now president Democrats won the majority back and in 1976 ran jimmy Carter beat Gerald Ford Carter a poor politician the failure of his raid Operation Eagle Claw caused him to be a oneterm president Reagan next began as a Democrat but became a Republican Ran for governor in California defeated Pat Brown ran for president in 1968 but Nixon succeeded Reelected governor in Cali in 1970 poised to run in 1976 runs anyway against Ford in the Republican primary and is narrowly defeated Prepared to run againstjimmy Carter kicked off campaign in Mississippi where there had been many raciallycharged murders a message quotI m okay with how you do thisquot Reached out to evangelical Christians basically holding on to traditional republicans reaching out to conservative republicans Builds a new republican coalition included three elements Neocons NeoConservatives Neoreligious conservatives quotTheoconsquot Straight up conservatives 6thera close to parity a divided Congress and a president reaching to everyone In 1992 Clinton breaks the nonpartisan Presidency but a Republican majority Congress Since then has been along this theme when a President is one party the Congress is in majority the other party no more clear powerful majority A divided government makes for a static government How does the party system work Obviously a twoparty system national elections dominated by these two parties Why just two parties quotThe rules of the gamequot means an eitheror sort of decision 0 The Presidency 0 Lots of executive power in this one job 0 Created a complicated electoral college system 0 Problem with the electoral college need a majority the rst time you have a vote 0 And with two nominations that39s not going to be too dif cult The Israeli system different proportional representation encourages many parties to run Thirdparty candidates in America will not really succeed candidates have to run as one of the major parties in order to be votedfor in the electoral college The parties have to be quotbigtentquot parties USA is so diverse that the parties have to expand and welcome members of different groups A little easier to divide between parties because they have become so ideological Parties polarize on cultural issues like guns abortion samesex marriage so it39s dif cult for the parties to work together Still on American political parties What distinguishes these parties Much of the 20th century not clear lots of crosspartisan voting In the 21St century more polarized issues more clearly de ned 0 Some issues veterans support not really disagreement but many others yes 0 Much of these differences on economic policy 0 Mostly a privatized economy but part of it is the public economy government work Builds roads dams infrastructure etc etc 0 Mixed economy tilted towards private center Republicans generally for limited government more taxes maximizing individual freedom of action abstractly Americans like this but at the same time government has to do a lot Where do we draw the line 0 Modern Republican Party much more aligned with minimalgov39t with the exception of national defense 0 American Taxpayer Association Grover Norquist Republican pledge quotI will never vote to raise taxesquot Democrats more willing to impose taxes especially for the quotbroader goodquot and especially on high income earners Distribution of wealth gotten more extreme the democrats are opposed to raising middleclass taxes Hedge funds entrepreneurs raise money from many sources and then look for ways to raise large pro ts buy companies etc funds generate huge incomes and then are distributed these pro ts are treated as capital gains and are not taxed appropriately Basically economy is a huge divider between parties Parties have also become more polarized on quotvaluequot issues A quotwedge issuequot an issue raised in order to divide one s opponents same sex marriage raised by Republicans to divide the Democrats Domestic policy strong dividers foreign policy and national defense In modern world we must have a foreign policy with focus on national defense Basically policy moves around Values change between parties Different elements of political parties organization or a group operating with a particular goal in mind 0 Organizations provide incentives to motivate people to work for them whether monetary social spiritual etc Back in 19th cent parties provided a lot of material bene ts jobs etc 0 Many of these organizations pretty corrupt Sold favors passed out jobs etc Rules tightened Today millions of government jobs but mostly lled on a civil service basis 0 Job protection after parties change power workers continue not patronage jobs Material incentives not given out by parties much anymore However an ambassadorship is considered an incentive Parties in the government Divided government makes things dif cult to get things done Party in House v party in Presidency can check each other and deadlock legislation Most people who run for of ce are elected as D or R usually predicts how they will behave So political parties are also part of our government structure Party in the electorate Whether you register as D or R or just register most voters have partisan orientations usually predicts how people vote Many quotindependentsquot are leaners generally vote for the party they lean towards Partisan loyalty dictates media attention as well republicans watch fox democrats watch msnbc etc So we seek out information that we like and agree with tune out things we disagree with Locks into partisan orientation and choose not to hear what disagrees with us Predictor of partisan leaning Age the older voters are the more republican they are likely to vote and vice versa 0 And older voters tend to vote more so republicans are doing well in nonpresidential elections 0 But in presidential elections there39s more of an even divide Gender republicans do better with male voters democrats do better with female voters o What really matters is married women or unmarried women 0 Married women are pretty republican unmarried women pretty democratic 0 Married women have more nancial security so they aren39t concerned so much with the government support network Unmarried women are generally not in such a good economic situation EthnicityRace WASPs tend to be more republican minority tends to be Democratic Community 0 To oversimplify three geographies Big cities Suburbs RuralSmall towns o A few years back Big Cities Dem Suburbs Rep RuralSmall mixed 0 Now small towns are strongly Republican the Big Cities are even more strongly Democratic Suburbs are quotinterestingquot exurbs are becoming strongly Republican innercity older suburbs are becoming more Democratic States also tend to be partisan like Texas has been voting Republican forever but certain states are con icted look at Florida 0 The northeastern part is pretty Republican but southern peninsula is Democratic so it is a heavily competed state Voting is also concerned more with symbolic issues Not as much economic voting as moral voting 0 Used to be the richer you were the more Republican you voted 0 Now based on symbolic issues etc Next class more on media Except I was ill and missed this class and for that I apologize Four major declared candidate for 2016 election Hillary Clinton Democratic nomination Marco Rubio Ted Cruz amp Rand Paul And more to come 0 Jeb Bush Ben Carson et cetera Most Republican 0 On Democratic side a lot of people talk about running but it looks like Clinton will win the Democratic nomination Unfortunately it doesn39t look like the Democrats are going to be very strong in the election A weak incumbent party low approval ratings etc By next summer that might change In any case an important election President can act when a divided Congress often cannot Judiciary branch has become more important as the President can nominate judges Interest groups 0 Similar to political parties organizations that try to affect political outcomes 0 Don39t run candidates under their names 0 Thousands of interest groups just two parties 0 Why are there more interest groups in US than any other democratic country 0 The Constitution When the framers drafted and added rst amendment clearly gave Constitutional protection to Americans who wanted to organize political groups freedom of speech assembly press right to petition o For much of American history not many interest groups changed in 20th century and continues in 21St century Increased population Changing culture Internet makes it much easier for people to group together The costs of organizing dramatically lower people also more af uent more time and more money New class of rich people Some are putting their enormous wealth towards political interest groups 0 And interest groups get stuff done So politicians encourage interest groups to get their thing done 0 Interest groups emerging in the 20th century 0 NAACP Formed about 100 years ago by white liberals and Blacks who were distressed at discrimination Formed during a chaotic time race riots lynching etc Regular political process not interested in the Black dif culties So people formed a political organization to pursue their goals Continues today based on chapters around the country One of the groups that pioneered vote of court Suing to get things done 0 ACLU American Civil Liberties Union Constitution and amendments have a lot of rights but historically these rights were ignored particularly in wartime When US entered WWI Wilson disliked any criticism of the war attempted to suppress any criticism against the Constitution So some law professors started the ACLU to protect the rights of those who were criticizing government or otherwise advocating an unpopular cause Criticism for its protection of all unpopular causes racist groups et cetera Many interest groups based on economic selfinterest 0 We have a big government hires a lot of people collects a lot of taxes etc 0 So people with a similar economic interest should get together The biggest group the AARP Has a big stake in what the government does with social security and healthcare Organized around protecting those interests 0 NRA like AARP a powerful political group Founded after civil war encourage Americans to become more pro cient with guns Gradually became concerned with sporting and hunting However in 19305 crime rose government began to regulate weapons NRA was ok with that In 19605 highpro le rearm assassinations Led to a push for more weapon regulations most efforts did not go too far but some were enacted A faction within the NRA essentially staged a coup against the leadership and started pushing for second amendment rights New leadership fought government on gun control efforts So in 19605 became a powerful political group and continue to be so today Why is NRA so powerful Many people make their living as a part of it people who make money selling weapons Paradox more owned weapons than ever but fewer people own weapons Gun owners buy more guns 0 So many NRA members are in the weapons business and so don39t want government to impose more control Basis to organize nd an interest the government is affecting and organize a group involved with that interest 0 Free Rider problem Whether one pays their taxes or not many of these public goods are ones that people bene t from clean air army et cetera So a lot of interest groups need people to pay AARP provides selective bene ts for those who join 0 Government often helps or hurts speci c identity groups racial gender et cetera 0 NAACP 0 New political groups emerging to protect the interests of Hispanics MALDEF focused on MexicanAmerican citizens 0 Because government treats people differently people become politically active the quotemulationquot effect If one group is active others see and become active as well 0 So while these groups aren39t responsive directly to economic interests they are related but primarily responsive to a group identity These groups particularly strong in the 20th and 21St century 0 Strongest groups the organized LGBT communities Government not responding to AIDS issue in 805 communities organize and protest and raise attention 0 Other groups are based around morality like environmental groups 0 quotSave the Whalesquot groups et cetera PETA Essentially a huge active diversity of interest groups Quick review Litigation pursue court tactics if ballot box isn39t working for you 0 To pursue a case must have standing show whatever you object to has harmed someone if not necessarily you 0 Legal talent lawyers 0 Time Courts often work slowly 0 Risk if one loses in court that counts against the case More interest group things Remember that interest groups can support candidates but can39t run candidates Litigation is a popular method for interest groups to affect public policy 0 As the balance of power shifts between liberal and conservative interest groups may decide which route to take based on this Healthcare law conservatives litigating in court since a liberal Congress passed healthcare 0 But it39s timeconsuming costly and risky Conservatives group attacking ACA con dent in their success but the decision handed down by the court did not rule in their favor A conservative judge did not side with the conservative group Electioneering 0 Interest groups change makeup of legislatures by supporting a speci c candidate 0 Interest groups can39t run their own candidates but their support may affect an election 0 Center of American nancial system Wall Street Generally welltreated by tax laws Wall Street makes political contributions Because it has so much money fund both Democrats and Republicans investing in both parties are in uential in the White House in either party Money talks Tesla argument 0 Tesla has a subsidy doesn39t want to sell its cars through dealerships Texas laws don39t allow this cars must be bought through dealerships Tesla will probably be unsuccessful 0 Auto dealers are politically active amp are ghting to keep Tesla from being able to sell online quotdisintermediationquot cuts out the middleman aka dealerships ADA Auto Dealership Association diverse put a lot of money into Texas legislator campaign ADA big advantage because they ve been investing in Texas elections for years 0 If you don39t have a lot of money maybe you have a lot of members For example a labor union might get members to quotknock on doorsquot 2008 amp 2012 White working men have become very Republican including union members in Ohio and Pennsylvania These normally Democratic members weren39t enthusiastic about voting for Obama mobilized a lot of people to persuade union members to vote for Obama Typically send 23 union members to work on one reluctant member basically just quotconvincingquot 0 Various means of moving elections money ads knockondoors et cetera Lots of electioneering If you give money to a candidate or support them they ll generally be at least willing to listen to you a good investment Lobbying O In many legislatures civilians cannot go onto the oor without a member to talk to members often have to do it outside the chamber The lobby Lobbying is talking to members outside the body Tesla trying to do this in Austin has not been investing as long as ADA but has hired many people who can work the legislature lobbyists Many are former members as a legislator the salary is terrible so a lot of people learn how the legislature works and then quit and become a lobbyist An important aspect of lobbying informing members of what legislation means Too many bills for members to read lobbyists are continuing professionals and traf c in accurate information if you tell a member something false and they quote it the consequences are Dire Lobbying is of course onesided talks about the upside but usually very accurate And the other side should provide the other information so overall lobbyists provide accurate information a reliable and important information source for members Essentially lobbyists are intermediaries who familiarize members with cases for or against a bill hired by interest groups to push their agenda 0 Other tactics direct action 0 Confronting public officials or citizen behavior and forcing change by more direct action A role model for this Indian political leader Mohandas Gandhi In South Africa Began long campaign to mobilize minority communities not to send representatives but to quotraise hellquot Create disturbances civil disobedience essentially just draw attention and protest Utilized the same methods in India for Indian independence Nonviolent confrontations Wee woo Another MLKJr Studied Gandhi39s methods familiar with these tactics mobilized community against Montgomery bus system Boycotted the buses More and more direct action In Houston led to the gradual desegregation of the city Congress passed Civil Rights act in response to this direct action Sometimes you just have to take to the street shrugging emoji In the US violence is rarely tied to political groups Some exceptions the Black Panthers the Puerto Rican shooting in 405 but for the most part political violence assassinations et cetera are committed by loners Terrorism is not tied to what39s happening in the US international terrorist groups because of what is happening in another part of the world Domestic terrorism is rare To nish up Are interest groups doing more harm or good 0 Give citizens ability to participate politically in more ways than are available in political parties et cetera o Argued that there are so many interest groups that they all balance each other out No one interest group can dominate Another line of thought trouble with pluralist idea is that it39s very elitist o Tilted towards people with more money and more status 0 Bob Dole quotno lobbyists for poor women and children lots of lobbyists for banksquot Not everyone is represented 0 Can distort public policy Groups that actually get quota chance at the tablequot push the policy one way 0 However interest groups are constitutional and are not going to go away Can be regulated differently but are basically part of the American political fabric Presidential elections 0 The current election 0 A different situation between two parties 0 Democratic side Favorite to win the nomination Hillary Clinton Very unusual particularly within Democratic party when no incumbent an open race because Obama is nishing last term Usually 68 democrats ghting for nomination but those talking about running don39t really have a chance 0 Republican side 19 Republicans quotauditioningquot Not all will run but at least a dozen running probably 0 Why this imbalance For democrats Hillary Clinton probably the rst woman to be nominated president 0 Why so dominating 0 Extremely unusual candidate only woman in previous history that might be compared is Eleanor Roosevelt 0 Like Hillary Clinton married to a president 0 But Eleanor could not vote for most of her life Could not serve in public of ce got political power by marrying Never ran for of ce and probably would not have had chance of winning 0 So Hillary is possibly unique 0 Lots of political experience and power 0 Born into Chicago suburban family father was RepubHcan In 605 feminist movement and other civil rights movements Clinton went to Wellsley college and did well during the turmoil of this time gave commencement address unusual for the time Admitted to Yale law school met Bill Clinton investigating Nixon 1974 Bill runs for of ce in Congress quotbetween the two of them they39ve been running ever sincequot 0 In 1991 Hillary becomes a strong political gure weakening economy open the election for the Clintons Crushed by scandals 0 Jennifer Flowers scandal 12year affair with Bill 0 Bill got a deferment from the Vietnam war Clintons agree to go on 60 Minutes to try and salvage their campaign a long interview wherein Hillary stands by Clinton Claims Flowers was lying about the relationship Secured presidential nomination with weak Democratic candidates And Bill elected President in 1992 Midterm elections went badly for the Clintons but due to weak Republican candidacy Clinton was reelected in 96 Lewinslq affair came close to ending his term as presidency only survived because Hillary stood by her husband Impeachment failed Then Hillary runs for Senate seat in New York although she has almost no connection to the state becomes US senator As the former rst lady many Senators interested in her interests but she quotblended inquot reelected to the Senate in 2006 and launches presidential bid in 2007 What went wrong with the campaign 0 Underestimated Barack Obama 0 Ran a poor internal campaign a poor team not very good on the reason she should be president Washington establishment backed Obama that move knocked Hillary out Many of her supporters urged Hillary not to back the new nominee rejected that advice endorsed Obama quotLoyal soldierquot 0 One of the reasons she39s now important in the Democratic Party a team player Resigned from Secretary of State appointment at the end of the rst Obama administration now regarded as the quotbest shotquot of the Democratic Party RepubHcans Why are there so many people 31 out of 50 state have Republican governors historically governors and former governors are most likely to be nominated for president Many governors decide now that Obama is out time to run So Jindall Walker et cetera lots of governors and former governors announcing presidential runs Senate not a good launching pad but three Senators giving up Senate seat to run for presidency A good chance for an insurgent because of the process 0 Before the republican convention we expect someone to have gotten enough delegates to be locked in for nomination 0 Important which states go rst 0 Start in Iowa go to New Hampshire then to South Carolina then Nevada all happen before March 1 Iowa uses caucus rather than primary most people don39t go to the caucus More current election news John Kacich governor of Ohio very likely to enter the presidential race Successful governor private businessman Prof thinks he could be a strong candidate for nomination Today we re talking about voters Again tend to live in an echo chamber re opinions befriend people we like people who agree with us But it39s a big country What the electorate at large at like is dif cult to gure out PEW report 0 Current 0 Big sample size 25k means that the authors can look at pretty small groups Focused on partisanship being closer to one political party than another Puts leaners and partyidenti ers together when put together Democrats have advantage 48 of adults say they39re Democrat or lean Democrat 39 RepubHcan Democrats struggling because the Republican population just tends to vote more Generally expect close elections Basic aspects of partisanship Age 0 Four categories generations of votingage Americans Millennials 1834 Big generation those who were born in the late 805 early 905 Gen Xers 3449 Lots of parents Baby Boomers 5067 Tend to be born right after WWII Silent Generation 6886 Not a lot of 87 voters o Millennials just now becoming the largest single group 0 Generational shifts becoming pretty big in partisanship o In 1992 oldest generation pretty Democratic and youngest generation pretty evenly split 0 2015 most Democratic group is Millennials most Republican group is the Silent Generation The older you are the more likely you are to lean Republican the younger the more Dem Groups in the middle more evenly split 0 Why do these patterns exist Gender ReaganCarter election rst view of gender gap Women more likely to be Democratic men likely to be evenly split or lean Republican 0 O 0 Why Politics has gotten more involved with value and moral issues samesex marriage et cetera Not a big issue in 92 but many people now have feelings and increasingly broken along age lines Millennials quotfine not a big dealquot amp Democrats mostly okay with it Older Americans pretty collectively opposed amp so are the Republicans Generations and the economy Baby boomers pretty welloff as a generation Born as the economy was rising good jobs et cetera A period where quotrising tide lifted all boatsquot bigger cars bigger houses bigger incomes Previous generation also bene ted 0 So silent generation and baby boomers kind of got lucky With Gen X things were quotokquot wage growth attening out especially for workingclass jobs that didn39t have a lot of education Been going down since 90 Millennials lost a lot of good jobs in manufacturing and wages go down where they survive Younger workers a lot less economically secure A lot ofjobs but mostly in service areas crappy jobs 0 Young generation affected by the economic recession 0 Education not a guarantee of economic security 0 So younger generation is somewhat more supportive of a governmental quotsafety netquot incurring less debt when going to college repaying debt so tend to support Democrats more With people living longer there becomes the problem of tending to the elderly of America requires more people to do this Women tend to be more in need of government support less interested in spending money on foreign wars and defense which Democrats tend to agree with Lean democratic by about 15 Men who identify Republican are just more likely to vote RaceEthnicity o The racial group most supportive of one political party African Americans Tend to support the Democratic Party by a huge margin Funny considering Democrats were proslavery and Republicans were Lincoln39s party but in 30 s party lines changed white Southern conservatives moved into Republican party the Democratic party became more welcoming to the black population 0 Hispanics A diverse group Most Latinx people do not consider themselves Hispanic separate themselves sectionally CubanAmericans Puerto Ricans et cetera A sectional difference CubanAmericans tend to be Republicans but they are an outlier MexicanAmericans and Puerto Ricans are heavily Democratic and generally a similar trend w Latinx people Republicans now attempting to change voting patterns by appealing to the Latinx population not a presidential candidate probably a vicepresidential candidate Hispanic immigration continuing so this group will probably grow Many Hispanic voters don39t ally with a party but watch which candidate seems more respectful of their community 0 Asians Lean pretty strongly Democratic California has a large Asian population and is pretty Democratic as is Hawaii New York as well has a lot of AsianAmericans Growing but mostly not in the highly competitive states quotsafely democraticquot Educann 0 Back in 20th the more education you had the more Republican you were higher incomes more sensitive to taxes et cetera o In 21St century the most educated Americans Law school graduate school medical school et cetera are pretty Democratic 0 Education particularly postgrad education means more support for Democrats Probably because of social issues if going along these educational paths operating in environments where social issues are more liberal People who are more critical and conservative of social issues tend to be older generations Leaners and identi ers towards Democrats are harder to get to vote even though they have a 9 advantage Republicans are older have voted before feel more strongly about these issues and are more likely to go to the polls Historically young adults don39t vote too much with the democrats more dependent on the young generation this might be a problem unless they can motivate young adults to go vote Much more challenging for older Hillary Clinton than younger Barack Obama 0 Clinton a Baby boomer can she connect with millennials If she cannot she can easily lose the election unless Millennials vote the Democratic Party is not going to do well Movement in the electorate Religion 0 After WW2 had a huge rise in secularism churches pretty deserted Younger generation had less religious sense of identity and church attendance plunged o This was not the case in the US more people still attend church still have a sense of religious identity Considerably more religiously oriented more religious faiths such as Buddhism and Islam Relatively a religious country 0 BUT MILLENNIALS less so Fewer religious identity much less likely to go to church 0 ln partisan terms a person with no religious identity tends to be more Democratic or a Democratic leaner A person who has a religious identity tends to be more Republican Doesn t matter what religion stronger religious identi ers tend to be more Republican This could reverse but if Europe is a model secularism will increase rapidly Once you lose people39s con dence it s hard to get it back Less faith in authority gures including religious gures 0 Historically the more religious side would win now a pretty even division 0 And moral issues contribute to this political polarization Harder to have a civil conversation with people you disagree with politically because the division is so stark O
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