1.0 0.9 Prob Date Prob Date y cneuqerF 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.05 Wed 9/24/97 0.10 Fri 9/26/97 0.15 Fri 9/26/97 0.20 Tue 9/30/97 0.25 Wed 10/1/97 0.30 Thu 10/2/97 0.35 Thu 10/2/97 0.40 Fri 10/3/97 0.45 Fri 10/3/97 0.55 Mon 10/6/97 0.60 Tue 10/7/97 0.65 Tue 10/7/97 0.70 Wed 10/8/97 0.75 Wed 10/8/97 0.80 Thu 10/9/97 0.85 Thu 10/9/97 0.90 Fri 10/10/97 0.95 Tue 10/14/97 Tue 9/16/97 Mon 10/6/97 Fri 10/24/97 Completion Date 0.50 Fri 10/3/97 1.00 Fri 10/24/97 Project Management - Fall 2016 Class Session 9 6 Fall 2016 Project Management Crashing the Schedule CRASHING: Shortening an activity to reduce the overall schedule. CRASH TIME: Shortest possible time an activity can realistically be completed EXAMPLE ASSUMPTIONS: Cost-time relationship is linear Normal time assumes low cost, efficient methods Crash time is the limit Slope represents cost per unit of time All accelerations must occur between normal and crash times Project Management - Fall 2016 Crash Slope Crash Cost – Normal Cost / Normal Time – Crash Time Choosing Activities to Crash Consider the timing – Crashing a critical activity early in the project may result in wasted money if some other critical activity comes in ahead of schedule Impact on Project Team – Will it impact the team’s morale – What about motivation in the future Risk – What does it mean to reduce the activity time to its limit? – Are you introducing more schedule risk? – Consider the newly created near-critical activities Project Management - Fall 2016 Class Session 9 7 Fall 2016 Project Management Options for Accelerating Completion Adding Resources – Watch out for increased communication problems Outsourcing – Can a subcontractor do it faster / cheaper? – Using specialists can reduce time. Fast-Tracking – Can critical path activities actually be done in parallel rather than sequentially? – At a minimum, analyze the dependency relationships for lag times or S-S or F-F relationships Project Scope – Can the scope of the project be reduced? Project Management - Fall 2016 Next: Group Assignment that includes Your Break Time Whitbread Case Study Group Analysis Project Management - Fall 2016 Class Session 9 8 Fall 2016 Project Management Homework Assignments for next class – Read Chapter 13 in the textbook – Complete a short write up (one per group – the assignment is worth 25 points for each member) on the Whitbread Sailboat Race case study. Explain the analysis method you followed to crash the schedule (please be specific) Show your baseline cost and schedule Present your ‘crashed’ cost and schedule, providing details of which tasks you crashed The quality of this assignment will be relatively graded against the submissions of other groups Project Management - Fall 2016 Next: Whitbread Sailboat Race Project Management - Fall 2016 Class Session 9 9 Fall 2016 Project Management Whitbread Sailboat Race Comprehensive Case Study that integrates Scope Management, Time Management, and crashing the project schedule to meet client requirements This will be an in class Group Exercise plus homework assignment that counts as one Case Study grade (each group member receives the same evaluation based on case write up) Important information in the case description – Pay close attention to the sequence of events – Interpreting the language used is important Project Management - Fall 2016 Whitbread Sailboat Race Background: The Whitbread Sailboat Race is a real “around the world” racing event. History: The race was conceived and organized by the Royal Naval Sailing Association with sponsorship from a London-based brewery company and was the first ever attempt at a global, crewed yacht race. Initial Event: Crews were mostly adventure driven novices, with limited experience of offshore sailing and absolutely no idea what lay ahead over the coming 27,500 nautical miles. Project Management - Fall 2016 Class Session 9 10 Fall 2016 Project Management Whitbread Sailboat Race – Case Study Requirements (deliverables) 1. Project network: use the information provided in the case study to build a project network. You may use yellow stickies or other method. 2. Project Schedule: based on the project network constructed above, you must enter the WBS and schedule into Microsoft Project software. 3. Analysis: your assignment is to establish a baseline cost and schedule for the race team. Then, you must analyze the options available to crash the schedule to meet the time objective and present a new cost and schedule solution. Identify the tasks you crashed, the new time and delta cost. Project Management - Fall 2016 Whitbread Sailboat Race Homework: Submit one answer document per Group (every group member gets the same grade) – Please no special characters in file name! At a minimum, you must submit the baseline cost and schedule for the race, THEN propose a crash cost and schedule (Hint: the cost will be higher!) Answer these questions: – What is the baseline cost and schedule (in weeks)? – How much does it cost to get the project back on the schedule that Bjorn requires to get to the race? – Explain the method your group used to crash the schedule. Include the tasks that you crashed and the extra cost per each crashed task. Project Management - Fall 2016 Class Session 9 11 Project Management Estimating PROJECT MANAGEMENT Class Session 4 Fall 2016 Today’s Agenda ⮚ Developing Project Estimates Scheduling ⮚ Developing Project SchedulesGroup Networks MS Project ⮚ Group exercise building networks ⮚ Computing project networks ⮚ Completing the project network Class Session 4 1 Project Management "Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it.“ -George Santayana ■ Reasons for doing estimates ■ To evaluate a project’s estimated costs before authorizing its implementation ■ To provide a basis for tracking and managing project expenditures ■ To establish a baseline against which to measure actual expenditures ■ To provide project managers a tool for evaluating project decisions Baseline: An approved plan for a project, plus or minus approved changes. Why is good project estimating important? ■ Success of projects is directly linked to good estimating ■ Time schedules are set by estimates of work ■ Client expectations are set based on initial estimates of costs and schedules ■ Estimation affects how bids are priced, and eventually affect the profitability of each contract. ©2012 Price Waterhouse Coopers: Insights and trends: Current Portfolio, Programme and Project Management Practices Class Session 4 2 Project Management Macro Estimating Methods Apportion Method of Allocating Project Costs ©2012 Project Management: The Managerial Approach, Clifford F. Gray and Erik W. Larson Useful method if you have experience with these types of projects Micro Estimating Methods Also known as ‘bottoms – up estimating Work Package Estimate ©2012 Project Management: The Managerial Approach, Clifford F. Gray and Erik W. Larson Class Session 4 3 Project Management Hybrid Estimating Method Phase Estimating Over Project Life Cycle ©2012 Project Management: The Managerial Approach, Clifford F. Gray and Erik W. Larson Key Points to Remember about Estimating ■ Responsibility ■ At the work package level, estimates should be made by the person(s) most familiar with the task ■ Use several people to estimate ■ Discussion about the estimates will improve accuracy ■ Normal Conditions ■ Estimates should be based on normal conditions, efficient methods, and a normal level of resources ■ Time Units ■ All estimates need consistent time units (hours, days, weeks) ■ Independence ■ Estimates should treat the task as independent of other tasks ■ Contingencies ■ Work package estimates should not include allowances for contingencies Class Session 4 4 Project Management So, how do we handle contingencies*? *Definition: a provision for an unforeseen event or circumstance. ■ Add to specific activities or work packages ■ Based on the uncertainty related to the specific task or work package (done through experience) ■ Project Contingency ■ Allocate an amount of time and cost that is proportional to the uncertainty in the project ■ Management Reserve ■ Management Reserve is the amount of total allocated budget withheld for management control purposes rather than designated for the accomplishment of a specific task or set of tasks. It is not part of the Performance Measurement Baseline. “Simply put, the project scheduling activity can make the difference between profit and loss. The heartbeat of the entire product development cycle is the project schedule.” – Neal Whitten, from Managing Software Development Projects ■ Developing the project schedule ■ The WBS is the basis of the schedule ■ The schedule and the project network contain lots of important information ■ Time to finish the project ■ Interdependencies of tasks ■ Identification of the Critical Path ■ Opportunities for reducing time ■ Opportunities for reducing risk Class Session 4 5 Project Management Basic Scheduling & Network Terminology ■ Activity ■ An element in the project that consumes time ■ Burst Activity: More than one dependent activity immediately following ■ Merge Activity: More than one activity must be completed before this activity may begin ■ Event (Milestone) ■ A significant event in a project that occurs at a specific point in time. ■ Relationship ■ Dependencies that exist between activities ■ Critical Path ■ Longest path (by time) through the network Two approaches for diagramming project networks Activity-on-Node Basic Network Rules 1. Network flows from left to right. 2. An activity cannot begin until Burst Activity Merge Activity ©2003 Project Management: The Managerial Approach, Clifford F. Gray and Erik W. Larson We will use the Activity-on-Node approach all preceding connecting activities have completed. 3. Arrows indicate precedence and flow. 4. Looping is not allowed. 5. Conditional statements are not allowed. Activity-on-Arrow Class Session 4 6 Project Management ©2003 Project Management: The Managerial Approach, Clifford F. Gray and Erik W. Larson WBS/Work Packages to Network: Continuing the yellow-sticky process Task Name WBS ID ©2013 Project Management Institute: PMBOK Guide Fifth Edition Now use the yellow-stickies for the network Class Session 4 7 Project Management THE YELLOW STICKY EXERCISE, continued • OBJECTIVE: Build the Network • METHOD: Yellow Sticky Group Exercise • DATA: Use Table page 627 in the book POM+ Project Be prepared to answer questions Build the project network with the about your network. Yellow-sticky method in your Group. Network Construction is the basis for network computation ©2008 Project Management Institute: PMBOK Guide Fourth Edition Class Session 4 8 Project Management Dependency Relationships Finish-to-Start Relationship Finish-to-Finish Relationship Start-to-Start Relationship ©2003 Project Management: The Managerial Approach, Clifford F. Gray and Erik W. Larson Determining Slack ■ Total Slack ■ The amount of time an activity can be delayed without delaying the entire project ■ The critical path is the longest path in the network and the path that has the least amount of slack (typically 0). Class Session 4 9 Project Management Network Computation Process ■ Forward Pass – Earliest Times ❑ How soon can the activity start? (ES = early start) ❑ How soon can the activity finish? (EF = early finish) ❑ How soon can the project be finished? (te = expected time) ■ Backward Pass – Latest Times ❑ How late can the activity start? (LS = late start) ❑ How late can the activity finish? (LF = late finish) ❑ Which activities represent the Critical Path? (CP) ❑ How long can the activity be delayed? (SL = slack) Network computation example • OBJECTIVE: Compute network times • METHOD: Forward Pass – Backward Pass • DATA: Page 187, question 7 • Air Control Company example on board ID Name ID Activity Predecessor Time A Order review None 2 B Order standard parts A 15 C Produce standard parts A 10 D Design Custom parts A 13 E Software development A 18 F Mfg. custom hardware C, D 15 G Assemble B, F 10 H Test E, G 5 Determine the Critical Path Class Session 4 10 Project Management Sensitivity of a Network ■ The likelihood the original critical path(s) will change once the project is started. ■ Sensitivity is a Function of: ■ The number of critical paths ■ The amount of slack on “near critical” activities (just off the critical path) ■ What is a near critical activity? ■ Consider slack time ■ Risk of individual tasks or path Discussion Topics ■ Why is slack time important in a network? ■ What insights does the Critical Path give to the project manager? ■ Near-Critical Path activities ■ What are they? ■ Why are they important? Class Session 4 11 Project Management Network computation Class Exercise • OBJECTIVE: Compute network times • METHOD: Forward Pass – Backward Pass • DATA: Page 187, question 8 • Simpson’s garage (class do individually) ID Name Predecessor Time A Pour Foundation None 3 B Erect Frame A 4 C Roof B 4 D Windows B 1 E Doors B 1 F Electrical B 3 G Rough-in frame C, D, E, F 2 H Door opener E, F 1 I Paint G, H 2 J Cleanup I 1 Determine the Critical Path What’s Next? ID Name ES = Early Start ID = Task ID (A, B, etc.) EF = Early Finish SL = Slack Name = Task Name LS = Late Start Dur = Duration (time) LF = Late Finish STRETCH BREAK ___________ COMPUTER LAB AFTER THE STRECH BREAK: Computer Exercise Part 2. Class Session 4 12 Project Management ■ Homework ■ Read Chapter 7 (Risk) for next class ■ Complete Computer Exercise (POM+ Part 1) and answer question 7, page 627 in book a. When is the project estimated to be completed? How many working days will it take? b. What is the critical path? c. Which activity has the most total slack? d. How sensitive is this network? e. Identify two sensible milestones and explain your choice ▪ For the homework, put the answers to the questions in the same MS Word or Apple Pages document you used for Part 1 with filename POM+yourlastname Computer Exercise # 2 – Building The Network Use data in Table on page 627 STEP 1 – OPEN MICROSOFT PROJECT STEP 2 – FILE/OPEN “POM+ project – 1 yourlastname” DO NOT ENTER RESOURCES YET STEP 3 – FILE/SAVE AS “POM+ project – 2 yourlastname” (save without a baseline) STEP 4 – CHANGE THE CALENDAR ACCORDING TO HOLIDAY DIRECTIONS IN THE TEXTBOOK. STEP 5 – EDIT EACH ACTIVITY (TASK) AND ENTER THE TASK DURATION AND PRECEDING ACTIVITIES (DEPENDENCIES) - - - DO NOT ENTER RESOURCES YET - - - STEP 6 – SHOW THE CRITICAL PATH When you are done entering data, show me your schedule and if approved by me, you are free to leave. HOMEWORK ASSIGNMENT: From Part 1 in the book, answer question 7 on page 626. Put your answer in your Word/Pages document with filename = POM+yourlastname. Class Session 4 13 Project Management - Fall 2016 9/26/16 PROJECT MANAGEMENT Class Session 5 Fall 2016 Today’s Agenda Networks ⮚ Continued from Session 4 MS Project Risk Group Exercise ⮚ Quick Review of Exercise 2 ⮚ Managing Project Risk ⮚ Alaska Fly Fishing Expedition Project Management - Fall 2016 Class Session 5 1 Project Management - Fall 2016 9/26/16 Network Construction is the basis for network computation ©2013 Project Management Institute: PMBOK Guide Fifth Edition Determining Slack Total Slack – The amount of time an activity can be delayed without delaying the entire project The critical path is the longest path in the network and the path that has the least amount of slack (typically 0). Class Session 5 2 Project Management - Fall 2016 9/26/16 Network Computation Process Forward Pass – Earliest Times ❑ How soon can the activity start? (ES = early start) ❑ How soon can the activity finish? (EF = early finish) ❑ How soon can the project be finished? (te = expected time) Backward Pass – Latest Times ❑ How late can the activity start? (LS = late start) ❑ How late can the activity finish? (LF = late finish) ❑ Which activities represent the Critical Path? (CP) ❑ How long can the activity be delayed? (SL = slack) Network computation example • OBJECTIVE: Compute network times • METHOD: Forward Pass – Backward Pass • DATA: Chapter 6, question 7 • Air Control Company example ID Name ID Activity Predecessor Time A Order review None 2 B Order standard parts A 15 C Produce standard parts A 10 D Design Custom parts A 13 E Software development A 18 F Mfg. custom hardware C, D 15 G Assemble B, F 10 H Test E, G 5 Determine the Critical Path Class Session 5 3 Project Management - Fall 2016 9/26/16 Air Control Company Critical Path: A – D – F – G - H Sensitivity of a Network The likelihood the original critical path(s) will change once the project is started. – Sensitivity is a Function of: The number of critical paths The amount of slack on “near critical” activities (just off the critical path) What is a near critical activity? – Consider slack time – Risk of individual tasks or path Class Session 5 4 Project Management - Fall 2016 9/26/16 Discussion Topics Why is slack time important in a network? What insights does the Critical Path give to the project manager? Near-Critical Path activities – What are they? – Why are they important? Network computation Class Exercise • OBJECTIVE: Compute network times • METHOD: Forward Pass – Backward Pass • DATA: Page 187, question 8 • Simpson’s garage (class do individually) ID Name Predecessor Time A Pour Foundation None 3 B Erect Frame A 4 C Roof B 4 D Windows B 1 E Doors B 1 F Electrical B 3 G Rough-in frame C, D, E, F 2 H Door opener E, F 1 I Paint G, H 2 J Cleanup I 1 Determine the Critical Path ID Name ES = Early Start ID = Task ID (A, B, etc.) EF = Early Finish SL = Slack Name = Task Name LS = Late Start Dur = Duration (time) LF = Late Finish Class Session 5 5 Project Management - Fall 2016 9/26/16 What’s Next? AFTER THE STRECH BREAK: Quick Review of Computer Exercise, then Project Risk Management STRETCH BREAK ___________ Risk Management Computer Exercise # 2 – Basic Data / Table View What questions does this basic table view answer? Which activity is the Project Start activity, and how can you tell? Project Management - Fall 2016 Class Session 5 6 Project Management - Fall 2016 9/26/16 Computer Exercise # 2 – Gantt Chart View What does a Gantt Chart tell us? Project Management - Fall 2016 THE NETWORK VIEW CRITICAL PROJECT START PATH #1 CRITICAL PATH #2 FIRST HALF Class Session 5 7 Project Management - Fall 2016 9/26/16 Network Sensitivity Project Management - Fall 2016 MANAGING RISK Risk is like fire: If controlled it will help you; if uncontrolled it will rise up and destroy you. – Theodore Roosevelt Highest Uncertainty: Starting phase ©2008 Project Management Institute: PMBOK Guide Fourth Edition Project Management - Fall 2016 Class Session 5 8 Project Management - Fall 2016 9/26/16 Risk Management Definitions In the context of projects, risk is the chance that an undesirable event will occur and the consequences of all its possible outcomes. The objectives of project Risk Management are to increase the probability and impact of positive events, and decrease the probability and impact of events adverse to the project. (PMBOK 4th Edition) Project Management - Fall 2016 Gartner view of Risk Project Management - Fall 2016 Class Session 5 9 Project Management - Fall 2016 9/26/16 The Risk Management Process Risk Management should use the project WBS as the ©2008 Project Management Institute: PMBOK Guide Fourth Edition basis of the analysis. STEP 1 Identify Risks Take a practical approach to Identify Risks Use the WBS as your starting point Be thorough in your analysis (explore all reasonable possibilities, but don’t be absurd in your suggestions) Continue until all risks are identified If more detail is required, assign project team members to investigate Project Management - Fall 2016 Risk Categories / Risk Profiles INTERNAL RISKS Typical Sources – Project Sponsors / Stakeholders – Customer Requirements – Contract vehicles Major Types – Schedule Risk – Technical Risk – Financial Risk – Internal Legal Risks After identification, it is helpful to categorize the risks for continuing analysis. EXTERNAL RISK CATEGORIES • Regulatory • Natural Hazards • Environmental • Public Interest (perception / PR) An example of a Risk Management Tool Project Management - Fall 2016 Class Session 5 10 Project Management - Fall 2016 9/26/16 What Does History Disclose? Top Reported Risk Areas in: Government – Funding – Roles and responsibilities – Staff expertise – Development process – Project planning Industry – Resources – Requirements – Development process – Project interfaces – Management process Managing Risk, Elaine M. Hall, Addison Wesley 1998 Lessons Learned from IBM Projects Top Delivery Failure Reasons Lack of Project Management discipline (planning/tracking) Failure to exercise proper change control procedures Ineffective project financial management Ineffective project organization Customer issues (e.g., not fulfilling their responsibilities). Project Management - Fall 2016 The Risk Management STEP 2 Process Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis ©2008 Project Management Institute: PMBOK Guide Fourth Edition Analyze the identified risks and determine which ones are most significant Typical analysis characteristics for a Risk Event – Probability of occurrence – Magnitude of impact – Ability to detect Total 64 50 36 25 Project Management - Fall 2016 Class Session 5 11 Project Management - Fall 2016 9/26/16 Risk Analysis FOLLOWING THE PRACTICAL APPROACH Gather the Experts – Use experienced project team members – Analyze the risks as a group Conduct Open Discussion – Discuss each identified risk – Assess each event in terms of Probability Impact Ability to detect Tabulate the Results – Calculate a score for each risk – Use a Risk Severity Matrix to show results Prioritize and Assign Risks Example: Risk Severity Matrix ©2003 Project Management: The Managerial Approach, Clifford F. Gray and Erik W. Larson – Ensure one project team member owns each risk – Most probable owner is Work Package owner Project Management - Fall 2016 The Risk Management STEP 3 Process RISK RESPONSE DEVELOPMENT Plan Risk Responses – Risk Mitigation Reduce the likelihood of occurrence Reduce the impact Develop contingency plans – Transferring Risk Normally applies to high severity / low probability of occurrence risks Through contract terms Insurance – Sharing Risk Agree to spread risk across parties ©2008 Project Management Institute: PMBOK Guide Fourth Edition – Retaining Risk Not feasible to do anything else Project Manager must have a plan ready to execute if the risk occurs Project Management - Fall 2016 Class Session 5 12 Project Management - Fall 2016 9/26/16 Contingency Planning Technical Risks – Identify alternative solutions – Simulate alternative results – Increase Design Reviews and Testing Schedule Risk – Trade-off decisions (Remember the Triple Constraint) – Use of Slack Time in the schedule – Schedule buffers Funding Risks – Total Budget / Cost – Cash Flow The Risk Management Process ©2008 Project Management Institute: PMBOK Guide Fourth Edition Contingency Funding Budget Reserves – Identified for specific work packages Management Reserve – Covers unforeseen project risks – Established after Budget Reserves – Held at the portfolio level Project Management - Fall 2016 STEP 4 RISK RESPONSE CONTROL Monitor and Control Risks – Execute Mitigation Strategies These tasks MUST be added to the project schedule Monitor the mitigation execution just as you would any other activity – Monitor for Triggering Events Ensure one project team member owns each risk for monitoring activity Report status at regular project status meetings – Initiate Contingency Plans If a triggering event occurs, ensure contingency plan execution – Continuous Assessment of New Risks Hold additional risk identification reviews Project Management - Fall 2016 Class Session 5 13 Project Management - Fall 2016 9/26/16 Things to Remember about Risk Every risk consists of: – An Event – A Level of Impact – A Probability of occurrence Risk Management is a continuous process of identification and assessment that should continue throughout the project – Present regularly to the project team and stakeholders – Continually assess the project for newly identified risks Risk Management is proactive, not reactive – Build risk mitigation strategy and plans up front – Include mitigation plans in the project schedule – Ensure proper levels of contingency in the schedule and the budget – Establish a Management Reserve for unforeseen risks Project Management - Fall 2016 GROUP EXERCISE: Alaska Fly Fishing Expedition Analyze the Case Study as a group (Chapter 7) Use the Nominal Group Technique or similar technique for Brainstorming and ranking the complete set of risks – Each group member writes down all their risks – First person reads all their risks and puts them on the list – Next person adds all of their risks not on first list – No debate allowed during this part of the process – Once all the risks are written down, each person privately ranks ALL the risks – Results are tabulated and Top Five risks listed Develop a Risk Assessment Form for the Top Five risks (see Risk Assessment Form example in Chapter 7) Develop a Risk Severity Matrix for the Top Five risks you identify (see Risk Severity Matrix example in book) Project Management - Fall 2016 Class Session 5 14 Project Management PROJECT MANAGEMENT Class Session 1 Fall 2016 INTRODUCTIONS ■ Please introduce yourself to the class ■ TELL US YOUR NAME ■ IF YOU HAVE WORKED IN AN ORGANIZATION, NAME THE COMPANY AND WHAT POSITION DID YOU HOLD? ■ WHERE IS YOUR HOME (City & Country)? ■ LOCATION THAT YOU HAVE VISITED FURTHEST FROM HOME (for example, if you live in Paris and have traveled to Shanghai, maybe that is the furthest place for you) Project Management - Fall 2016 Class Session 1 1 Project Management An Overview of Project Management Project Management - Fall 2016 Project Management Class Grading Project Management - Fall 2016 Class Session 1 2 Project Management Project Management Class Grading Project Management - Fall 2016 Note: We will strictly adhere to the SKEMA ‘Internal Policies and Regulations’ For student attendance and ‘Fraud and Plagiarism’ policies Project Management - Fall 2016 Class Session 1 3 Project Management Note: We will strictly adhere to the SKEMA ‘Internal Policies and Regulations’ For student attendance and ‘Fraud and Plagiarism’ policies Project Management - Fall 2016 Project Management in Practice c/o Dr. Bob Barnes! The Focus of Project Management: Prediction and Prevention …not … not… not recognition and reaction!!! Project Management - Fall 2016 Class Session 1 4 Project Management Eight Step Project Management Methodology Project management is about creating unique products and services i.e. project management is about creating and learning and leading and deploying change ... Revision Management Change Management 7. 2EC.x658 he1..R. ca .e S3EBun4TqScs.gta.r ihtueaesoWiRelnie mnerCdilseBc sioai&unmkttSntilion ents trol ing ing e Control on A Logical Process – Sequence of Work Activities With Feedback and Managed Change Copyright 2013 B. D. Barnes PhD PE PMP Project Management - Fall 2016 PMI – Project Management Institute Total Membership 475,000 PMI Membership (July 2016) http\\ www.pmi.org • Established in 1969 • Over 460,000 members in 202 countries • Local Chapters and Communities of Practice • PMBOK – Project Management Body of Knowledge • PMP – Project Management Professional (certification) PMI Statistics of Interest As of 01 July 2016: PMI membership has exceeded 475,000 • Total number of Project Management Professional (PMP)® credential holders: 655,576 • Total number of Certified Associate in Project Management (CAPM)® certification holders: 28,826 • Total number of Program Management Professional (PgMP)® credential holders: 1328 • Total number of Scheduling Professional (PMI-SP)® credential holders: 1375 • Total number of Risk Management Professional (PMI-RMP)® credential holders: 3253 • Total number of Agile Certified Professional (PMI-ACP)® credential holders: 8870 Project Management - Fall 2016 Class Session 1 5 Project Management Value of Certification PMI Membership Project Management - Fall 2016 PMI – Project Management Institute If you intend to seek PMP® certification, start by downloading the Project Management Professional Credential Handbook from PMI®’s Web site* *Download the handbook from the pmi.org web site Project Management - Fall 2016 Class Session 1 6 Project Management TAKE A SHORT BREAK ■ For today’s class only, please take only a 10 minute break. Be back in your seats after ten minutes. Project Management - Fall 2016 What is a Project? ■ Project Defined ■ A project is a temporary endeavor undertaken to create a unique product, service, or result. ■ Major Characteristics of a Project ■ Has an established objective. ■ Has a defined life span with a beginning and an end. ■ Requires across-the-organization participation. ■ Involves doing something never done before. ■ Has specific time, cost, and performance requirements. Project Management - Fall 2016 Class Session 1 7 Project Management Project Stakeholders ©2013 Project Management Institute: PMBOK Guide Fifth Edition Stakeholder. Person or organization (e.g., customer, sponsor, performing org, or the public) that is actively involved in the project, or whose interests may be positively or negatively affected by execution or completion of the project. Project Management - Fall 2016 Project/Process Group Life Cycle - PMBOK ©2013 Project Management Institute: PMBOK Guide Fifth Edition Project Management - Fall 2016 Class Session 1 8 Project Management Project Life Cycle – Our Textbook Executing Initiating the Project Planning the Project Executing the work Closing the Project Defining Planning Delivering Closing ©2014 Project Management: The Managerial Approach, Clifford F. Gray and Erik W. Larson Project Management - Fall 2016 Project Management Outputs ■ OUTPUT (PHASE OF LIFECYCLE) ■ Project Charter (Starting the Project) ■ Project Management Plan (Organizing and Preparing) ■ Accepted Deliverables (Carrying out the work) ■ Archived Project Documents (Closing the Project) Project Management - Fall 2016 Class Session 1 9 Project Management Comparison of Routine Work with Projects Routine, Repetitive Work Taking class notes Daily entering sales receipts into the accounting ledger Responding to a supply-chain request Practicing scales on the piano Routine manufacture of an Apple iPhone Attaching tags on a manufactured product Projects Writing a term paper Setting up a sales kiosk for a professional accounting meeting Developing a supply-chain information system Writing a new piano piece Developing the design and architecture for the iPhone 6 and producing the first prototype Wire-tag projects for GE and Wal-Mart Project Management - Fall 2016 Programs versus Projects ■ Program Defined ■ A group of related projects managed in a coordinated way to obtain benefits and control not available from managing them individually. ■ A higher level group of projects targeted at a common goal. ■ Example: ■ Project: One space flight to service the International Space Station. ■ Program: The International Space Station construction, maintenance and use. Project Management - Fall 2016 Class Session 1 10 Project Management Portfolios, Programs and Projects ©2013 Project Management Institute: PMBOK Guide Fifth Edition Project Management - Fall 2016 The Challenge of Project Management ■ The Project Manager ■ Manages temporary, non-repetitive activities and frequently acts independently of the formal organization. ■ Marshals resources for the project. ■ Is linked directly to the customer interface. ■ Provides direction, coordination, and integration to the project team. ■ Is responsible for performance and success of the project. ■ Must induce the right people at the right time to address the right issues and make the right decisions. Project Management - Fall 2016 Class Session 1 11 Project Management The Technical and Sociocultural Dimensions of the Project Management Process Science Art ©2014 Project Management: The Managerial Approach, Clifford F. Gray and Erik W. Larson Project Management - Fall 2016 HOMEWORK: The Alaska Pipeline During the video, please observe the behavior of the project manager. You may want to take notes and remember several of the key impacts the PM had on this very large program. Project Management - Fall 2016 Class Session 1 12 Project Management The Alaska Pipeline ■ Consider these questions ■ Was this a project or a program? ■ Who were the primary Stakeholders? ■ How was the project charter affected after the project began? ■ What were the key characteristics of the project manager? Project Management - Fall 2016 Homework ■ Read Chapters 2 and 3 ■ Be prepared to discuss chapter topics in our next class session ■ Hector Gaming Company case study ■ Read the HGC case at the end of Chapter 2 ■ Write a one page response to the questions posed at the end of the case study. Please be sure to answer the questions in relationship to the topics covered in the textbook. Also include a recommendation explaining how to solve the problems. ■ Watch the Alaska Pipeline video and take notes on requested topics ■ We will discuss this case in class next week Project Management - Fall 2016 Class Session 1 13 Rainy Day WiFi – Part 2 All your equipment shipments arrive as scheduled in Costa Rica. Everything appears to be going smoothly until you don’t hear from Costa Rican customs about release of the shipments. Only after ten days have passed are you contacted by a customs agent. The customs agent informs you that your equipment shipments can not be released to your job site because you have not filed the correct work permits to receive the shipments. In fact this customs agent tells you that the permit process could last for months, unless you pay a $10,000 ‘expedite fee’ to him. Define the impact of this event and develop a practical response for the rest of the project to keep Rainy Day WiFi on its proposed schedule. Include this in your Part 2 project documentation. GROUP PROJECT ASSIGNMENT, PART 2 – Based on the scenario above, define the impact of this event and develop a practical response for the rest of the project. Include this in your Part 2 project presentation described below. Your second PowerPoint presentation will assume the project has been in process 30 - 70 percent of the project duration and has not progressed as planned in the schedule and/or budget. Remember to include the impacts of the Part 2 situation given above, plus any problems or issues that have arisen on the project (Note: please be creative here). At the minimum within the PowerPoint presentation: 1) give a status report on key project events that have occurred since your last presentation; 2) present a formal cost and schedule assessment of your project status; and 3) provide a formal estimate to complete the project. You must provide an updated Gantt chart to show your schedule progress and an Earned Value analysis to show your EV status. As with the first presentation, you will be required to present your slides to the Executive Steering Committee, so please be sure to bring five (5) printouts to class for the ESC. Quality Expectation: I expect this presentation to be of ‘deliverable quality’, and you should assume you are delivering it to the real Executive Steering Committee of your project. Deliverable quality assumes good grammar, no spelling errors, and complete explanations for the information provided on each slide. There is no specified minimum or maximum number of slides, but you must cover all the items above. Grading information: There is no separate grade for this assignment, but your performance will be part of your team’s group final project report grade. I expect a high level of participation from each group member, and it will be the Project Manager’s responsibility to report to me if certain group members have not contributed to the assignment. Take a Risk (Part 2) Geoff Choo May 19, 2004 Page 1 of 2 Print Close In the first installment of this two-part series, we looked at risk management planning, risk identification and qualitative risk analysis. In this installment, we continue with a look at quantitative risk analysis, risk response planning and risk monitoring and control. Quantitative Risk Analysis The main objective of the quantitative risk analysis process is to develop an objective and numerical assessment of the risks facing a project. This process helps you calculate an actual probability number as well as quantify the magnitude of the impact of the risk in terms of time or money units. This quantification process is performed by using a Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the probability of completing the project by various dates, sensitivity analysis to determine which variables have the greatest impact on project results, or decision-tree analysis to calculate the time and cost impact of taking a series of decisions. How does this impact your project? This process adds two important elements to your project planning process. The first is the results of the probabilistic analysis which provides decision-makers with data on the probabilities of hitting various cost and schedule targets, taking into account the various options and decision paths available to the organization. The second is the concept of expected value, which is derived by multiplying the probability of occurrence of a risk event by the magnitude or value of the impact of the risk. The expected value of a risk event gives you an idea of your expected financial loss in the event that the risk occurs. But more importantly, expected value tells you how much you should realistically spend on your risk responses. You should generally try not to spend more in dealing with the risk than how much you expect to lose if that risk does occur. Risk Response Planning In this process, you develop your strategies for responding to the risks that you have identified in the previous processes, based on risk priority, expected value, probability of occurrence and magnitude of impact. In responding to risk events, your key objective should be to maximize the probabilities of achieving your schedule and cost objectives. You can choose to avoid, mitigate and transfer the risks, but sometimes it may be too expensive or too difficult to avoid, transfer or mitigate your risks. In this situation, your only course of action is to plainly accept the risks. You accept that the risks may occur; you hope that they don't occur, but just in case, you create contingency plans and set aside a contingency reserve in your budget for when those risks do happen. How does this impact your project? Here is where the risk rubber meets the road. Once you have identified your risks and figured which risk merit the most attention, the PMBOK risk response plan will help you define the most appropriate strategy to adopt for every identified risk. The risk response plan will also help define accountability for your risk response strategies by associating every risk with a risk owner who will be http://www.gantthead.com/articles/articlesPrint.cfm?ID=217628 10/21/2008Page 2 of 2 responsible for tracking and dealing with the risk. For the risks that you accept, your contingency plans and reserves will help protect the project from potential cost overruns in the event of those risk events occurring. Risk Monitoring and Control In this process, you monitor residual risks left over after your risk response planning, and identify new risks that may have arisen. Your main objectives in this process include keeping an eye on identified risks and verifying that you are following your risk response plan; checking that those risk responses are effective--if not, you'll need to develop a new response, identifying new risks that may have arisen and creating workaround plans for dealing with those new risk, controlling accepted risks and executing corrective action from contingency plans if those accepted risks have occurred. How does this impact your project? Risk management doesn't end with the identification, assessment and handling of risk. You will be performing risk audits and risks reviews to control risk and verify that your risk response strategies and the people you have assigned responsibility for those risks are effective. Risks can and will happen at any point in your project lifecycle, and you need to constantly check your project for the effectiveness of your risk management plans, and quickly correct your plans if things aren't working out as you had envisioned. Risks are also hardly static entities and constantly mutate to changing project conditions. Risk monitoring and control will help ensure that you are able to keep up these changes by constantly monitoring risks to discover changes in the impact of identified risks. The results of your risk monitoring and control entered into a risk database which will provide essential historical information for the management of future projects. Geoff Choo helps plan, design, implement, and manage enterprise software development projects for Northern Italian companies. He can be reached at email@example.com. Copyright © 2008 gantthead.com All rights reserved. The URL for this article is: http://www.gantthead.com/article.cfm?ID=217628 http://www.gantthead.com/articles/articlesPrint.cfm?ID=217628 10/21/2008Take a Risk (Part 1) Geoff Choo May 12, 2004 Page 1 of 2 Print Close Uncertainty is the biggest enemy of the project manager. In other words, what you don't know may hurt you. Uncertain events, obstacles and issues always crop up when they are least expected and for every step you take forward, you find yourself sliding two steps back. Thinking hard about how you're going to deliver your project scope is important, but it's even more important to think about what can prevent you from completing your project. That means taking a proactive approach to managing risks before they happen. While you can't prevent risks from happening, you can greatly reduce the negative impact on your project's scope, schedule, budget and quality. And this is where the PMBOK risk management can really make the difference. The PMBOK defines risk management as the systematic process of planning, identifying, assessing and handling project risks using the six processes of risk management planning: risk identification, qualitative risk analysis, quantitative risk analysis, risk response planning, risk monitoring and control. In this article, you will learn how and why using this risk management approach can greatly increase the chances of delivering your project on time and on target. Risk Management Planning Contrary to what you might think, risk management planning isn't about figuring out what the risks are and how to handle them. That will come much later in the process. What we want to do in this stage is to create a risk management plan that outlines how we're going to decide what sort of risk management we're going to perform on our project. That means deciding upfront what risk methodology we're going to use, who will be involved and what their responsibilities will be, what techniques we will use for risk identification, qualification, quantification (if we're going to have enough resources to use this process), as well as risk monitoring and control. How does this impact your project? You will have a clear roadmap to help guide your risk management activities and help prevent wasting time and resources thinking about what you have to do later on. Risk Identification The PMBOK risk identification process teaches you that the best way to identify risk is to seek the collective feedback of project team members and stakeholders in the definition of project risks and their triggers by: 1. Going through every entry in your WBS 2. Examining each and every entry against a checklist of risk categories 3. Using a variety of information-gathering methods like brainstorming, SWOT analysis, the Delphi http://www.gantthead.com/articles/articlesPrint.cfm?ID=217627 10/21/2008Page 2 of 2 method and so on to come up with a list of risk events and their triggers, which are early warning signs that help tell you when a risk is about to occur or has occurred. The key things to note are that your risk identification team shouldn't be spending time here on deciding what methods you'll be using to identify the risk, since that should have already been previously defined in the risk management plan. Also, it's important to remember that as you gather your risks, you shouldn't be concerned about debating the merits of including a risk on your list or discussing possible handling strategies. You will have time for that later. The main thing you want to do now is to document as many risks as you can. These identified risks not only make up essential input into the rest of the risk management process, but also impact other planning processes like cost estimating and activity duration estimating. How does this impact your project? The systematic use of risk categories and checklists help ensure that you identify all possible risks that are critical to your project. Risk categories also serve as useful seed topics to spark off the brainstorming process. Involving your team members and stakeholders in the process will help ensure that you get the widest possible range of feedback and input into the risk identification process as possible. Modern projects are too complex for any one person to know everything. You need the breadth, depth and diversity of insight, knowledge and judgment that only people with different talents, experiences and skills can bring. Qualitative Risk Analysis In the qualitative risk analysis process, you'll begin to filter down your previously created list of identified risks by giving a priority to each risk you have identified in the risk identification process. You'll derive this list of prioritized risks as well as the overall risk ranking by making subjective cardinal or ordinal assessments of the probability of occurrence and magnitude of impact of identified risk events, creating a risk ranking matrix, testing your project assumption with alternative scenarios and data precision ranking. How does this impact your project? You have limited resources to deal with risks and you need to spend your precious resource only on the more important risk, or the one with the greatest probability of occurrence. The list of prioritized risks will tell you which risks need further quantitative analysis and which should be carried over directly to your risk response planning instead. Since this is an ongoing process that gets carried out throughout the project lifecycle, you'll be able to accumulate a repository of data that lets you track the trends of your qualitative risk analysis results. This will give you great insight into the risk challenges your projects face over time. The overall risk ranking lets the organization create a risk ranking methodology that will let your organization compare the levels of risks of individual projects in the overall project portfolio and make smarter decisions regarding the more efficient allocation of project budget and resources. In our next installment, we will take a look at quantitative risk analysis, risk response planning and risk monitoring and control. Geoff Choo helps plan, design, implement, and manage enterprise software development projects for Northern Italian companies. He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org. Copyright © 2008 gantthead.com All rights reserved. The URL for this article is: http://www.gantthead.com/article.cfm?ID=217627 http://www.gantthead.com/articles/articlesPrint.cfm?ID=217627 10/21/2008Rainy Day WiFi Your company, Control-Kaos Inc. provides wireless network solutions to various venues including, hotels, conference centers, malls, retailers and airports. Control-Kaos believes that by providing these venues with a wireless infrastructure, you will create a win-win opportunity for both Control-Kaos and the venue that subscribes to your services. Control-Kaos will work with each customer to plan, install and support the wireless network and required infrastructure. Your top sales agent, Maxwell Smart, has just agreed that Control-Kaos will implement a wireless network for a luxury hotel in Playa Buena, Costa Rica called Rain Forest Paradise. The wireless system will be capable of providing both guests and employees complete Internet connectivity from any location in the hotel. One of the main reasons for this hotel to invest in wireless is to reduce staff inefficiencies by 20% and increase customer satisfaction by 50%. All work must be completed within the next 6 months to be complete before the rainy season that begins in the July / August timeframe. The scope of the Control-Kaos wireless network proposal is to provide a wireless network infrastructure to allow the hotel to offer concurrent wireless Internet access to between 5 - 50 concurrent users. Control-Kaos will also provide training and support for all installed hardware and software. Budget estimates provided by agent Maxwell Smart appear below.
Unit Description Qty Price Total
Cisco Catalyst 3100 (WS-C3100B) Networking Switch
Cisco 1200 Series 802.11 a/b/g Access Point
1000' Cat 5e Network Cable
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Table 1: Hardware Bill of Materials
Description Qty Unit Price Total
DSL wireless connection
Table 2: Software Bill of Material One of the strengths of Control-Kaos is the ability to staff internally for contracts. All the people needed are pulled from the different areas of the company. For the Rain Forest Paradise project you have personnel available from Engineering, Marketing, Procurement and the Project Management Office. Complete the project within budget and before the rainy season begins.By Camille Spruill SPC4, SA, CSM, CBAP, PMP NCPMI Chapter Meeting October 27th, 2016Copyright © 2016 ezTagile, LLC www.ezTagile.com Copyright © 2016 ezTagile, LLC www.ezTagile.com 1 Presenter 2 Camille Spruill, SPC4, SA, CSM, CBAP, PMP Founder of ezTagile, LLC Chief Agile Consultant, Trainer and Coach ⦿ 16+ years of IT experience ⦿ 9+ years of agile experience ⦿ Certified Scaled Agile Framework Program Consultant (SPC4®) ⦿ Certified Scaled Agile Framework Agilist (SA®) ⦿ Certified Scrum Master (CSM®). ⦿ Certified Business Analysis Professional (CBAP®) ⦿ Certified Project Management Professional (PMP®) Email: info@ezTagile.com Website: www.ezTagile.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/camillespruillCopyright © 2016 ezTagile, LLC www.ezTagile.com Agenda Traditional (Waterfall) Methodology vs. Agile Monitor and Control Your Project The Agile Way Achieving Accountability Through Servant Leadership Agile Status ReportingCopyright © 2016 ezTagile, LLC www.ezTagile.com 3
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