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COLORADO / Political Science / PSCI 2223100 / What is the definition of prospect theory?

What is the definition of prospect theory?

What is the definition of prospect theory?


School: University of Colorado at Boulder
Department: Political Science
Course: Intro to International Relations
Professor: Steve chan
Term: Fall 2017
Tags: political science
Cost: 25
Name: week 5 notes intro to international relations
Description: these notes cover what's going to be on our next exam
Uploaded: 10/06/2017
2 Pages 112 Views 2 Unlocks

International​ ​Relations​ ​Lecture​ ​10/02/17: 

What is the definition of prospect theory?

● Prospect Theory: people do not behave rationally, we consistently have biases in our judgement. Both propositions should be objectively the same. Loss aversion, risk taking (gambling for recovery) Takes risks because you don’t want to lose anything. Much more conservative on the winning side. More likely to gamble when they’ve faced setbacks.

● Attribution Theory: how do you, i and everyone else go about making explanations and interpretations of other people’s behavior and motivations.

○ Dispositional attribution: resorting to others inclinations (internal circumstances) ○ Circumstantial attribution: external circumstances are why they did this ● Graham Allison’s three decision making models:

○ Individual decisionmakers matter

○ Rational actor model- unitary actor (whole country is united, single unified entity) and purposeful action (they intend to achieve certain things- objectives, all actions have a purpose)

What is the definition of attribution theory?

○ Organization processes model- every decision maker has to rely on

bureaucracies to carry out orders, president’s orders won’t be carried out automatically. Large bureaucracies don’t always follow president’s orders. (bureaucratic momentum and standard operating procedures) Don't forget about the age old question of What are the elements of lean production?

■ Standard operating procedures: own house rules and routines.

bureaucracies have its own rules to follow, don’t always follow president. Not what the president wishes, it’s what the bureaucracies want. That’s

foreign policy.

Lecture​ ​10/04/17: 

● Graham Allison’s three decision making models continued:

○ Governmental Politics Model- this model takes on one critical factor of the RA model. Top leaders often do not see eye to eye. Disagree with each other very strongly. Where you stand depends on where you sit (bureaucratically). President tries to bring different people with different views together to form policy(getting different people to come on board, some people are hesitant). Foreign policy is hardly rational in this model. Each person represents a partisan part of group.

What is the content of graham allison’s three decision-making models?

If you want to learn more check out What do adolph and thelen’s studies tell us?

● Principal agent dilemma: the boss is the principal(us), the boss hires the agents. The dilemma is that sometimes the agents do not have their act together. They will pursue different agendas that do not reflect our wishes.

● Muddling through- getting by and managing it, making do, not trying to do the best you can nor be perfect

● satisficing- settles for the first thing that satisfies requirements. Settles for something good enough. Opposite of optimizing. Optimizing is the single very top choice.

Treaty of westphalia

Structural anarchy- realism

Prospect theory

Security dilemma

Self help- realism


Attribution theory

Standard operating procedure

Satisficing and muddling through- people don’t examine alternative as much, just settle for less

Organizational processes- really what bureaucracies want because they are in charge of carrying out the actions

Power elite: the control of society and the public setting are in the hands of the elite. Corporate world and governmental world. Partners with military industrial complex to cause detrimental harm to real world. Greed, control of power, etc.

military industrial complex: want more revenue, support going to war. Positional competition: not how well i am doing, but how well i am doing compared to you. Don't forget about the age old question of What is the main function of a special interest group?
Don't forget about the age old question of What is the 32 cell stage?

Risky shift: you take more risks, the chances of failure are greater. Works when you have people put in a group the group decision is riskier than if people made individual decisions. Tied to group think.

American primacy: america is the top dog, unipolar, only super power. America is superior. We also discuss several other topics like What are the ideal characteristics of a victim?
We also discuss several other topics like What is the average number of comparisons for a successful search assuming all entries are searched with equal probability?

Power transition theory: another challenge to realism, a balance to power keeps peace. Power transition argues against it, thinks the danger of war will rise if power is more equal because there is an equal chance of winning. War is more likely. hegemonic stability is different.(one power means balance and peace). Pluralism; too many interest groups


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