International Relations Lecture 10/02/17:
● Prospect Theory: people do not behave rationally, we consistently have biases in our judgement. Both propositions should be objectively the same. Loss aversion, risk taking (gambling for recovery) Takes risks because you don’t want to lose anything. Much more conservative on the winning side. More likely to gamble when they’ve faced setbacks.
● Attribution Theory: how do you, i and everyone else go about making explanations and interpretations of other people’s behavior and motivations.
○ Dispositional attribution: resorting to others inclinations (internal circumstances) ○ Circumstantial attribution: external circumstances are why they did this ● Graham Allison’s three decision making models:
○ Individual decisionmakers matter
○ Rational actor model- unitary actor (whole country is united, single unified entity) and purposeful action (they intend to achieve certain things- objectives, all actions have a purpose)
○ Organization processes model- every decision maker has to rely on
bureaucracies to carry out orders, president’s orders won’t be carried out automatically. Large bureaucracies don’t always follow president’s orders. (bureaucratic momentum and standard operating procedures)
■ Standard operating procedures: own house rules and routines.
bureaucracies have its own rules to follow, don’t always follow president. Not what the president wishes, it’s what the bureaucracies want. That’s If you want to learn more check out Who is taiichi ohno?
● Graham Allison’s three decision making models continued:
○ Governmental Politics Model- this model takes on one critical factor of the RA model. Top leaders often do not see eye to eye. Disagree with each other very strongly. Where you stand depends on where you sit (bureaucratically). President tries to bring different people with different views together to form policy(getting different people to come on board, some people are hesitant). Foreign policy is hardly rational in this model. Each person represents a partisan part of group.
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● Principal agent dilemma: the boss is the principal(us), the boss hires the agents. The dilemma is that sometimes the agents do not have their act together. They will pursue different agendas that do not reflect our wishes.
● Muddling through- getting by and managing it, making do, not trying to do the best you can nor be perfect
● satisficing- settles for the first thing that satisfies requirements. Settles for something good enough. Opposite of optimizing. Optimizing is the single very top choice.
Treaty of westphalia
Structural anarchy- realism
Self help- realism
Standard operating procedure
Satisficing and muddling through- people don’t examine alternative as much, just settle for less
Organizational processes- really what bureaucracies want because they are in charge of carrying out the actions
Power elite: the control of society and the public setting are in the hands of the elite. Corporate world and governmental world. Partners with military industrial complex to cause detrimental harm to real world. Greed, control of power, etc.
military industrial complex: want more revenue, support going to war. Positional competition: not how well i am doing, but how well i am doing compared to you. If you want to learn more check out What does lobbying mean in interest groups?
Risky shift: you take more risks, the chances of failure are greater. Works when you have people put in a group the group decision is riskier than if people made individual decisions. Tied to group think. If you want to learn more check out What is the 32 cell stage?
American primacy: america is the top dog, unipolar, only super power. America is superior.
Power transition theory: another challenge to realism, a balance to power keeps peace. Power transition argues against it, thinks the danger of war will rise if power is more equal because there is an equal chance of winning. War is more likely. hegemonic stability is different.(one power means balance and peace). Pluralism; too many interest groups We also discuss several other topics like What are the ideal characteristics of a victim?
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