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ISU - POL 138 - Class Notes - Week 10

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ISU - POL 138 - Class Notes - Week 10

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background image Statistical Inference What do we mean by inference? o Inference as the process of drawing conclusions  form observed data o Or, probabilistic statements about a population  based upon knowledge of a sample Point and interval estimation Hypothesis testing   Inference is not only about our confidence in  individual estimates   We may also use inference to test hypotheses about  relationships between variables o A common element here is the p-value o This value ranges from 0 to 1, and allows us to  make inferences from samples to populations o The logic: we compare our observed sample  data (and the relationships between X and Y) to  what we would expect to find if X and Y were 
unrelated in the population
o The p-value is the probability we would observe  the relationship in the sample data to random  chance o The lower the p-value, the greater our  confidence in our estimated relationship   Hypothesis Testing Coin toss example: assuming a fair coin tosser, the  chances of getting heads are the same as getting tails
(0.50)
  State a null hypothesis: o The coin toss is fair
background image o H 0 : P = 0.50   State an alternative, or research hypothesis: o The coin toss is not fair o H A : P  ≠ 0.50   The null hypothesis is your baseline; what you are  testing against The alternative hypothesis is your hypothesis   What does this look like? o Defining a critical region: Assume the null hypothesis is true Draw a sample form a population and  calculate the sample statistics Under the null, only a certain get of  outcomes of a random process should arise  regularly The critical region consists of the outcomes  that are so unlikely that if they occur we must 
reject the null hypothesis
  In theory, these choices are made in advance of any  data collection To start, collect a random sample Examine the test statistic to see if it falls into the  critical region o If yes, reject the null o If no, do not reject the null   Make an interpretation of the findings  
Errors

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School: Illinois State University
Department: Politics
Course: Quantitative Reasoning in Political Science
Professor: Te-Yu Wang
Term: Summer 2015
Tags: Politics, POL138, politicalreasoning, and politicalscience
Name: POL 138 Week 10 Notes
Description: All of the notes from week 10 of class in POL 138
Uploaded: 10/27/2017
5 Pages 15 Views 12 Unlocks
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