FSU - PHI 2100 - Exam 3 Study Guide - Study Guide

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School: Florida State University

Department: Philosophy

Course: Reasoning and Critical Thinking

Professor: Michael Bishop

Term: Summer 2015

Tags: Cognitive Psychology and reasoning

Name: Exam 3 Study Guide

Description: These notes cover the stuff in the Kahneman book thus far, as well as the question on the last chapter of the first book that weren't covered by the second exam.

Uploaded: 11/12/2017

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Acts ● Acts: A ● Consequences: C ● Utility of a consequence C: U(C) ● Conditional probability of C happening if act A is taken: Pr(C |A) ● Expected value of A: Exp(A) ● Exp(A)=[Pr(C1|A)*U(C1)]+[Pr(C2|A)*U(C2)] ● When it’s clear we are talking about a specific act it is easier to write without conditional probability. ● Exp(A)=[Pr(C1)*U(C1)]+[Pr(C2)*U(C2)] Expected monetary value, or EMV ● When talking about EMV, the utility is expressed in terms of money. ● EMV of A=the sum of the monetary products (monetary products are monetary value*probability). ○ EMV(A)=[Pr(C1)*$V(C1)]+[Pr(C2)*$V(C2)] Favorable, unfavorable, and neutral 1. More than zero is favorable. 2. Less than zero is unfavorable.
3. Zero is neutral, a waste of time as far as money is concerned. Systems ● System 1: Intuitive thinking. This is the subconscious that often uses mental shortcuts like heuristics and cognitive biases to reach judgments. Drawn by a few factors. ○ Salience: How well known something is. ○ Sentiment: The feelings one experiences in the face of stimulus. ○ Signals: How the message is communicated. ● System 2: Rational/reflective thinking. More complex, in depth thought that strays away from heuristics and is in a state of conscious awareness. Deliberate, logical thinking is used to reach conclusions here. ● Most marketing fails because it focuses on system 2 instead of system 1. Heuristic Types: System 1

● Affect Heuristic: Value judgments based on whether something feels good or not. ● Anchoring Heuristic: Dwell on recently attained information even when it is not relevant to color your judgment. ● Availability Heuristic: Importance given to memories based on the ease of recall. ● Representativeness Heuristic: Two different events with perceived similarities in their characteristics lead to judgments of likelihood. ○ Plausibility: What seems like it’d be the most likely. ○ Probability: What is statistically the most likely. ● Commitment Heuristic: If you do something, it is best to finish seeing it through. ● Mood Heuristic: Answering a given set of questions within a different order leads to a different result. Biases: System 1 ● Belief Bias: Subjective factors of believability color our belief in a given conclusion. ● Confirmation Bias: We seek information that confirms what we already know and believe. ● Optimism Bias: Our thinking is irrationally skewed in favor of positive outcomes being most likely. ● Hindsight Bias: The belief that the predictability of a given event that has already happened was the same at the time of its occurrence. ● Framing Effect: How information is presented colors our thinking. ● Loss Aversion: Our thinking is skewed in favor of conclusions that do not equate to loss. ● Narrative Fallacy: Good stories=true stories. ● Regression Fallacy/Regression To The Mean: Not taking into account the probabilities of events given other events have happened. ● Planning Fallacy: Overestimating benefits and underestimating costs in one’s judgments. ● Halo Effect: Our perception of a person who has one good quality is that of said goodness spilling over to everywhere else, even where it might not exist. ● The Law of Small Numbers/Hasty Generalization: A small sample leads to an overtly broad conclusion. ● What You See Is All There Is/WYSIATI: We tend to believe in things we know and shun the unknown.

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