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OleMiss - ECON 203 - Study Guide - Final

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OleMiss - ECON 203 - Study Guide - Final

School: University of Mississippi
Department: Economics
Course: Macroeconomics
Professor: Jaevin Park
Term: Fall 2016
Tags: Macroeconomics
Name: Econ203, Final Exam Study Guide
Description: This study guide covers chapters 15, 18, and 19.
Uploaded: 12/02/2017
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background image ECON203​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​ ​​ Final​ ​Exam​ ​Study​ ​Guide​ ​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ ​​ Prof.  Vasios     
Chapter​ ​15:​ ​Stabilization​ ​Policy,​ ​Output,​ ​and​ ​Employment 
Economic​ ​instability​ ​makes​ ​financial​ ​planning​ ​difficult​,​ ​from​ ​the​ ​personal/household​ ​level​ ​to 
the​ ​firm​ ​and​ ​governmental​ ​levels 
Economic​ ​policies​ ​should​ ​be​ ​enacted​ ​with​ ​these​ ​three​ ​goals​ ​in​ ​mind:  Steady​ ​Growth  Price​ ​Stability  Full​ ​Employment  However,​ ​the​ ​implementation​ ​of​ ​these​ ​policies​ ​can​ ​differ​ ​among​ ​policy-makers,​ ​whether​ ​they’re 
“activists”​ ​(who​ ​argue​ ​that​ ​policies​ ​should​ ​counter​ ​economic​ ​fluctuations)​ ​or​ ​“non-activists” 
(who​ ​argue​ ​that​ ​changes​ ​in​ ​policies​ ​may​ ​do​ ​more​ ​harm​ ​to​ ​economic​ ​stability​ ​than​ ​good)​. 
Activists​ ​and​ ​nonactivists​ ​have​ ​to​ ​keep​ ​in​ ​mind​ ​the​ ​​time​ ​lag​ ​problem​,​ ​or​ ​the​​ ​time​ ​it​ ​takes 
for​ ​a​ ​policy​ ​to​ ​actually​ ​be​ ​felt​ ​in​ ​an​ ​economy​ ​from​ ​the​ ​time​ ​when​ ​a​ ​problem​ ​arises​: 
Recognition​ ​lag​​ ​-​ ​the​ ​time​ ​it​ ​takes​ ​to​ ​realize​ ​there’s​ ​a​ ​problem  Administrative​ ​lag​​ ​-​ ​the​ ​time​ ​it​ ​takes​ ​for​ ​policymakers​ ​to​ ​discuss​ ​and​ ​decide​ ​on​ ​a 
policy 
Impact​ ​lag​​ ​-​ ​the​ ​time​ ​it​ ​takes​ ​for​ ​the​ ​effects​ ​of​ ​policy​ ​to​ ​be​ ​felt​ ​in​ ​the​ ​economy   Forecasting​ ​tools​ ​and​ ​indexes:​ ​​The​ ​Index​ ​of​ ​Leading​ ​Indicators​​ ​is​ ​an​ ​aggregate​ ​index​ ​that 
lumps​ ​together​ ​10​ ​different​ ​economic​ ​indicators;​ ​if​ ​it​ ​shows​ ​a​ ​consecutive​ ​3-month 
decrease,​ ​that​ ​is​ ​a​ ​sign​ ​of​ ​a​ ​pending​ ​recession 
The​ ​Index​ ​of​ ​Leading​ ​Indicators​ ​​measures​ ​the​ ​following​ ​10​ ​components,​ ​which 
appear​ ​in​ ​the​ ​economy​ ​before​ ​a​ ​change​ ​in​ ​output​ ​(GDP)​ ​appears​: 
The​ ​length​ ​of​ ​the​ ​average​ ​work​ ​week  Initial​ ​weekly​ ​claims​ ​for​ ​unemployment​ ​compensation  New​ ​manufacturing​ ​orders  Percentage​ ​of​ ​firms​ ​receiving​ ​slower​ ​deliveries​ ​from​ ​suppliers  Contracts​ ​for​ ​new​ ​capital​ ​and​ ​buildings  New​ ​housing​ ​permits  Interest​ ​rate​ ​spread​ ​(10​ ​year​ ​treasury​ ​bond)  Consumer​ ​expectations  Change​ ​in​ ​stock​ ​price​ ​index  Change​ ​in​ ​M2​ ​money​ ​supply  Certain​ ​market​ ​signals​ ​can​ ​also​ ​indicate​ ​changes​ ​in​ ​the​ ​economy  Consumer​ ​confidence​ ​indexes​​ ​can​ ​indicate​ ​changes​ ​in​ ​the​ ​consumption 
part​ ​of​ ​aggregate​ ​demand 
Unemployment​ ​benefit​ ​applications​​ ​track​ ​the​ ​movement​ ​of​ ​the​ ​labor 
market,​ ​and​ ​thus​ ​the​ ​level​ ​of​ ​production 
Commodity​ ​indexes​​ ​can​ ​predict​ ​the​ ​general​ ​price​ ​level​ ​(e.g.​ ​oil​ ​affects​ ​a 
large​ ​amount​ ​of​ ​industries,​ ​so​ ​the​ ​price​ ​of​ ​oil​ ​is​ ​used​ ​as​ ​an​ ​economic 
indicator) 
Exchange​ ​rate​ ​changes​ ​​can​ ​predict​ ​changes​ ​in​ ​export​ ​volume 
background image  
 
Computer​ ​simulations:   Using​ ​supercomputers,​ ​economists​ ​can​ ​build​ ​​models​ ​that​ ​include​ ​hundreds​ ​of  variables​ ​and​ ​equations​,​ ​in​ ​order​ ​to​ ​find​ ​a​ ​solution​ ​to​ ​the​ ​system​ ​of​ ​equations​ ​that  can​ ​show​ ​the​ ​future​ ​path​ ​of​ ​the​ ​economy,​ ​as​ ​well​ ​as​ ​forecast​ ​the​ ​impact​ ​of​ ​a  suggested​ ​policy​.  The​ ​accuracy​ ​of​ ​computer​ ​simulation​ ​has​ ​had​ ​mixed​ ​results​ ​so​ ​far:​ ​​during  stable​ ​times,​ ​computer​ ​models​ ​are​ ​good​ ​at​ ​predicting​ ​a​ ​stable​ ​path​.  However,​ ​they​ ​have​ ​not​ ​been​ ​as​ ​successful​ ​when​ ​faced​ ​with​ ​severe  economic​ ​turns,​ ​because​ ​stable​ ​data​ ​is​ ​easy​ ​to​ ​predict.​ ​​Chaotic​ ​movements  cannot​ ​be​ ​easily​ ​predicted​.​ ​Also,​ ​since​ ​we​ ​base​ ​our​ ​models​ ​on​ ​past​ ​data​ ​and  experiences,​ ​the​​ ​models​ ​cannot​ ​include​ ​new​ ​fluctuation​ ​information​ ​that  we​ ​do​ ​not​ ​yet​ ​know.  Variables​ ​that​ ​cannot​ ​be​ ​predicted:​ ​weather,​ ​new​ ​technology,​ ​political​ ​upheaval​ ​both 
domestically​ ​and​ ​abroad 
Expectations​ ​​can​ ​influence​ ​the​ ​course​ ​of​ ​the​ ​economy​ ​because​ ​behaviors​ ​may​ ​adapt 
according​ ​to​ ​what​ ​is​ ​expected,​ ​which​ ​affects​ ​time​ ​lags​ ​and​ ​policy​ ​shifts;​ ​the​ ​two​ ​different 
models​ ​of​ ​expectations​ ​are​ ​adaptive​ ​and​ ​rational 
Adaptive​ ​expectations​​ ​-​ ​the​ ​hypothesis​ ​that​ ​economic​ ​influencers​ ​​base​ ​their 
expectations​ ​about​ ​the​ ​future​ ​on​ ​the​ ​recent​ ​past​,​ ​often​ ​basing​ ​predictions​ ​on​ ​an 
average​ ​taken​ ​over​ ​a​ ​time​ ​period 
E.g.​ ​If​ ​inflation​ ​was​ ​observed​ ​to​ ​be​ ​4%​ ​over​ ​the​ ​last​ ​few​ ​years,​ ​they​ ​expect 
future​ ​inflation​ ​to​ ​be​ ​4%.​ ​In​ ​the​ ​case​ ​of​ ​a​ ​shock,​ ​people​ ​will​ ​be​ ​unable​ ​to 
predict​ ​it,​ ​but​ ​they’ll​ ​incorporate​ ​it​ ​into​ ​their​ ​future​ ​expectations 
Rational​ ​expectations​​ ​-​ ​the​ ​hypothesis​ ​that​ ​economic​ ​influencers​ ​​base​ ​their 
expectations​ ​about​ ​the​ ​future​ ​on​ ​all​ ​available​ ​current​ ​data​ ​as​ ​well​ ​as​ ​the​ ​probable 
effects​ ​of​ ​current​ ​and​ ​future​ ​policy​;​ ​bases​ ​expectations​ ​on​ ​recent​ ​past​ ​AND​ ​by 
rationally​ ​deducing​ ​what​ ​the​ ​economy​ ​will​ ​be​ ​like​ ​as​ ​an​ ​effect​ ​of​ ​the​ ​policies 
they’re​ ​implementing;​ ​they’re​ ​not​ ​perfect​ ​expectations​ ​because​ ​they​ ​still​ ​​allow​ ​for 
random,​ ​unpredictable​ ​shocks​​ ​in​ ​the​ ​economy. 
Under​ ​the​ ​rational​ ​expectation​ ​model,​ ​people​ ​can​ ​anticipate​ ​the​ ​changes 
that​ ​will​ ​occur​ ​in​ ​the​ ​economy​ ​due​ ​to​ ​policy​ ​changes,​ ​which​ ​​allows​ ​for 
adjustment​ ​to​ ​occur​ ​almost​ ​immediately​ ​and​ ​eliminates​ ​any​ ​chance​ ​of​ ​a 
short-run​ ​boom​. 
  The​ ​Phillips​ ​Curve​​ ​-​ ​​connects​ ​the​ ​rate​ ​of​ ​inflation​ ​with​ ​unemployment​​ ​by 
illustrating​ ​the​ ​unavoidable​ ​​tradeoff 
background image The​ ​basic​ ​argument​ ​is​ ​that​ ​​when​ ​inflation​ ​is​ ​high,​ ​it​ ​is​ ​because​ ​we​ ​are 
producing​ ​high​ ​levels​ ​of​ ​output,​ ​therefore​ ​employing​ ​a​ ​lot​ ​of​ ​resources,​ ​and 
thus​ ​unemployment​ ​will​ ​fall​;​ ​when​ ​we​ ​are​ ​at​ ​​low​ ​rates​ ​of​ ​inflation,​ ​or​ ​even 
deflation,​ ​economic​ ​activity​ ​must​ ​be​ ​low,​ ​so​ ​output​ ​is​ ​low,​ ​and​ ​more​ ​people 
are​ ​unemployed​. 
However,​ ​we​ ​saw​ ​that​ ​when​ ​people​ ​have​ ​rational​ ​expectations,​ ​​high 
inflation​ ​does​ ​not​ ​necessarily​ ​mean​ ​high​ ​output​​ ​(such​ ​as​ ​in​ ​the​ ​case​ ​of 
stagflation.​ ​So,​ ​the​​ ​curve​ ​eventually​ ​breaks​ ​down,​ ​and​ ​the​ ​relationship 
between​ ​inflation​ ​and​ ​unemployment​ ​becomes​ ​a​ ​messy​ ​graph​ ​of​ ​points 
everywhere,​ ​with​ ​no​ ​clear​ ​trend​ ​line)​.​ ​Because​ ​unanticipated​ ​changes​ ​can 
act​ ​as​ ​expansionary​ ​or​ ​contractionary​ ​effects,​ ​we​ ​can​ ​redraw​ ​the​ ​Phillips 
Curve​ ​to​ ​incorporate​ ​our​ ​expectations 
The​ ​Adjusted​ ​Phillips​ ​Curve​​ ​connects​ ​unemployment​ ​with​ ​the​ ​change​ ​from 
expected​ ​inflation;​ ​during​ ​a​ ​period​ ​of​ ​time​ ​when​ ​prices​ ​are​ ​perfectly​ ​stable, 
everyone​ ​has​ ​correctly​ ​anticipated​ ​everything,​ ​and​ ​therefore​ ​we​ ​are​ ​at​ ​the 
natural​ ​level​ ​of​ ​output​ ​and​ ​unemployment.  
If​ ​we​ ​are​ ​above​ ​our​ ​potential​ ​output,​ ​that​ ​means​ ​inflation​ ​is​ ​rising 
faster​ ​than​ ​anticipated:​ ​firms​ ​are​ ​making​ ​short​ ​term​ ​profits,​ ​and​ ​are 
employing​ ​more​ ​people.   
If​ ​we​ ​are​ ​below​ ​our​ ​potential​ ​output,​ ​that​ ​means​ ​inflation​ ​is​ ​slower 
than​ ​anticipated:​ ​firms​ ​are​ ​making​ ​short​ ​term​ ​losses,​ ​and​ ​are​ ​laying 
off​ ​people.  
Therefore,​ ​when​ ​adjusting​ ​for​ ​expectations,​ ​the​ ​Phillips​ ​Curve​ ​​shows 
that​ ​unanticipated​ ​inflation​ ​or​ ​deflation​ ​can​ ​affect​ ​employment,​ ​but 
not​ ​anticipated​ ​inflation/deflation​. 
  Areas​ ​where​ ​Keynesians​ ​and​ ​Monetarists​ ​​agree​:  Timing​ ​issues​​ ​plague​ ​both​ ​kinds​ ​of​ ​policy-makers.​ ​​Rational​ ​Expectations​​ ​make​ ​people 
anticipate​ ​moves,​ ​and​ ​expansionary​ ​policies​ ​cannot​ ​influence​ ​output​ ​in​ ​the​ ​long​ ​run,​ ​but 
only​ ​for​ ​short​ ​term​ ​adjustment. 
Areas​ ​where​ ​Keynesians​ ​and​ ​Monetarists​ ​​disagree​: 
background image Keynesians​ ​say​ ​that​ ​​fiscal​ ​policy​ ​significantly​ ​affects​ ​Aggregate​ ​Demand​,​ ​but 
Monetarists​ ​argue​ ​with​ ​examples​ ​like​​ ​Crowding​ ​Out​ ​or​ ​the​ ​higher​ ​anticipated​ ​tax​ ​case​; 
Keynesians​ ​believe​ ​that​ ​​changes​ ​in​ ​government​ ​spending​ ​will​ ​stimulate​ ​the​ ​economy​​ ​in 
a​ ​recession,​ ​but​ ​Monetarists​ ​believe​ ​in​ ​​decreasing​ ​the​ ​tax​ ​rate​ ​to​ ​promote​ ​investment​ ​and 
consumption​;​ ​Keynesians​ ​believe​ ​that​ ​​economic​ ​instability​ ​is​ ​caused​ ​by​ ​natural​ ​and 
unpredictable​ ​fluctuations​​ ​in​ ​the​ ​market,​ ​but​ ​Monetarists​ ​believe​ ​that​ ​​constantly 
changing​ ​policies​ ​influences​ ​economic​ ​instability 
  Chapter​ ​18:​ ​Gaining​ ​from​ ​International​ ​Trade  Trade​ ​in​ ​the​ ​U.S.:  Between​ ​1960​ ​and​ ​2010,​ ​the​ ​amount​ ​of​ ​international​ ​trade​ ​that​ ​the​ ​U.S.​ ​conducts​ ​has 
tripled  
Exports​ ​rose​ ​from​ ​3.6%​ ​to​ ​12.5%​ ​of​ ​total​ ​GDP  Imports​ ​rose​ ​from​ ​4.1%​ ​to​ ​16.1%​ ​of​ ​total​ ​GDP  Major​ ​U.S.​ ​trade​ ​partners:​ ​Canada,​ ​Mexico,​ ​China,​ ​Japan,​ ​Germany,​ ​Great​ ​Britain,​ ​and 
France 
Resources​ ​being​ ​traded:  Capital​ ​goods​ ​​(goods​ ​that​ ​are​ ​used​ ​to​ ​produce​ ​other​ ​goods,​ ​like​ ​computers, 
electronics,​ ​telecommunications​ ​gear,​ ​industrial​ ​machines,​ ​etc)​ ​are​ ​both​ ​bought 
and​ ​sold 
Leading​ ​U.S.​ ​Exports:​ ​Aircraft,​ ​electrical​ ​equipment,​ ​chemicals,​ ​plastics  Leading​ ​U.S.​ ​Imports:​ ​Oil,​ ​textiles,​ ​toys,​ ​sporting​ ​goods,​ ​pharmaceuticals   Why​ ​do​ ​we​ ​trade​ ​internationally?   We​ ​cannot​ ​produce​ ​everything​ ​we​ ​need​ ​in​ ​the​ ​most​ ​efficient​ ​way,​​ ​so​ ​efficiency​ ​is​ ​a 
major​ ​factor 
Gains​ ​from​ ​specialization​:​ ​It​ ​leads​ ​to​ ​mutual​ ​gains​ ​between​ ​countries​ ​because​ ​it 
lets​ ​them​ ​specialize​ ​in​ ​producing​ ​specific​ ​goods​ ​and​ ​services,​ ​and​ ​because​ ​it​ ​can 
cost​ ​less​ ​to​ ​import​ ​certain​ ​goods​ ​rather​ ​than​ ​producing​ ​them​ ​domestically 
Example:​ ​Coffee.​ ​In​ ​theory,​ ​we​ ​can​ ​spend​ ​a​ ​ton​ ​of​ ​money​ ​in​ ​Sweden,​ ​make 
greenhouses,​ ​and​ ​grow​ ​coffee​ ​trees​ ​there.​ ​But​ ​why​ ​invest​ ​in​ ​all​ ​these 
greenhouses,​ ​fertilizer,​ ​watering​ ​systems,​ ​when​ ​the​ ​natural​ ​climate​ ​in 
Colombia​ ​allows​ ​for​ ​cheaper​ ​coffee​ ​to​ ​be​ ​farmed​ ​there?​ ​It​ ​makes​ ​sense​ ​to 
trade. 
Example:​ ​Electronics.​ ​Japan​ ​is​ ​a​ ​country​ ​with​ ​very​ ​little​ ​available​ ​land,​ ​but  high​ ​levels​ ​of​ ​technical​ ​skillsets.​ ​Why​ ​waste​ ​the​ ​land​ ​by​ ​farming,​ ​when  they​ ​can​ ​build​ ​factories,​ ​make​ ​electronics,​ ​and​ ​trade​ ​them​ ​for​ ​food?  Gains​ ​from​ ​large​ ​scale​ ​production​:​ ​By​ ​specializing,​ ​countries​ ​can​ ​exploit  economies​ ​of​ ​scale​ ​and​ ​produce​ ​output​ ​even​ ​more​ ​efficiently​ ​than​ ​before.​ ​Small  countries​ ​produce​ ​much​ ​more​ ​than​ ​what​ ​they​ ​need​ ​for​ ​themselves​ ​because​ ​they  can​ ​export​ ​the​ ​difference.​ ​If​ ​there​ ​was​ ​no​ ​international​ ​market,​ ​then​ ​they​ ​would​ ​be  unprofitable​ ​if​ ​they​ ​sold​ ​just​ ​to​ ​their​ ​own​ ​domestic​ ​market.  Gains​ ​from​ ​competitive​ ​markets:​​ ​Trade​ ​promotes​ ​competition​ ​and​ ​encourages  production​ ​efficiency​ ​on​ ​both​ ​sides​ ​of​ ​the​ ​border.​ ​Technology​ ​and​ ​ideas​ ​are​ ​able​ ​to  flow​ ​freely.  Pressure​ ​to​ ​adopt​ ​sound​ ​institutions:​​ ​Open​ ​trade​ ​puts​ ​pressure​ ​on​ ​governments​ ​to  also​ ​be​ ​more​ ​open,​ ​transparent​ ​and​ ​efficient.​ ​Sound​ ​and​ ​constructive​ ​policies  attract​ ​international​ ​trade.​ ​Legal​ ​uncertainty,​ ​convoluted​ ​tax​ ​codes​ ​and​ ​corruption  drive​ ​foreign​ ​business​ ​away,​ ​and​ ​domestic​ ​production​ ​also​ ​suffers.  Advantage​ ​in​ ​production​ ​for​ ​trade​ ​reasons:  
background image There​ ​are​ ​two​ ​types​ ​of​ ​production​ ​advantages:  Absolute​ ​Advantage​ ​​-​ ​a​ ​situation​ ​in​ ​which​ ​a​ ​nation,​ ​as​ ​a​ ​result​ ​of​ ​its  experience​ ​and​ ​resources,​ ​can​ ​produce​ ​a​ ​good​ ​more​ ​efficiently​ ​than  another​ ​nation;​ ​either​ ​produce​ ​more​ ​of​ ​the​ ​good​ ​with​ ​the​ ​same​ ​resources,​ ​or  need​ ​less​ ​resources​ ​to​ ​produce​ ​the​ ​same​ ​amount  Comparative​ ​Advantage​​ ​-​ ​the​ ​ability​ ​to​ ​produce​ ​a​ ​good​ ​at​ ​a​ ​lower  opportunity​ ​cost​ ​than​ ​others;​ ​relative​ ​costs​ ​will​ ​determine​ ​comparative  advantage  We​ ​can​ ​see​ ​that​ ​if​ ​a​ ​country​ ​has​ ​an​ ​absolute​ ​advantage​ ​in​ ​one​ ​good,​ ​and​ ​another  country​ ​has​ ​the​ ​absolute​ ​advantage​ ​in​ ​another​ ​good,​ ​they​ ​will​ ​probably​ ​specialize  in​ ​that,​ ​and​ ​wish​ ​to​ ​trade​ ​with​ ​each​ ​other.  A​ ​country​ ​can​ ​still​ ​generate​ ​gains​ ​from​ ​trade​ ​even​ ​if​ ​it​ ​has​ ​the​ ​absolute​ ​advantage  in​ ​everything!    Supply​ ​and​ ​Demand​ ​under​ ​trade:  Basic​ ​framework:  There​ ​is​ ​a​ ​​“world​ ​average”​ ​price​ ​for​ ​a​ ​good,​ ​determined​ ​by​ ​worldwide​ ​supply​ ​and  demand​​ ​for​ ​the​ ​good;​ ​there​ ​is​ ​also​ ​a​ ​​domestic​ ​market​ ​for​ ​that​ ​good,​ ​with​ ​domestic  demand​ ​and​ ​domestic​ ​supply​.  We​ ​​compare​ ​the​ ​domestic​ ​price​ ​to​ ​the​ ​world​ ​average​ ​price​,​ ​and​ ​see​ ​if​ ​the​ ​country​ ​is  a​ ​​net​ ​importer​ ​or​ ​a​ ​net​ ​exporter​​ ​of​ ​that​ ​good.  Then​ ​we​ ​can​ ​see​ ​the​ ​gains​ ​from​ ​trade​ ​on​ ​the​ ​graph;​ ​​gains​ ​can​ ​be​ ​either​ ​for  producers,​ ​or​ ​for​ ​consumers.   
 

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School: University of Mississippi
Department: Economics
Course: Macroeconomics
Professor: Jaevin Park
Term: Fall 2016
Tags: Macroeconomics
Name: Econ203, Final Exam Study Guide
Description: This study guide covers chapters 15, 18, and 19.
Uploaded: 12/02/2017
22 Pages 44 Views 35 Unlocks
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