Description
EXA country's population
growing at a rate of 4.5 million per year. how many people will be in the country in 10 years!
a)77 million b) 60 million 95 million d) 45 million Linear growth
current poptrate xu years later Population lly" years later=curr Current pop= 50 million u=10 year 50+ 4.5.10
Don't forget about the age old question of What is the definition of asexual?
50+45=90 million Log scale
& 4 8 16 327 Don't forget about the age old question of What is the content of the great war?
etio 100 1000 10,000
100? v Week 8
Types of
Grophs
near
h
Lineart
linear? Llogy
Log
Linear scale
• equal sized spaces correspond to addition of a particula number
o associated with "absolute change" Log scale sequal sized spaces correspond to multiplication of a particular number Don't forget about the age old question of What are the five components of cvp analysis?
associated with relative or percent change Ex. Dr. A's class 20 people got 4.0 Dr. Bis class a people got 4.0
~ Absolute measure know more information in Dr. A's class there were 4 stu Don't forget about the age old question of What is the definition of beneficiaries?
tudy SOUT
Relative measure: Dr. A 1000 • 100% = do got 4.0 Dr. B's class : 100% > 50% got4.0 violeos Below age 15, there are two Billidh children Each level is a 15 year age Sillido children 1530 (& Billion)
2:45 Billion) .60 years and older (1 Billion)
So around eleven Billion by the year 2100 If there is O rabbits, how many are there in 3 years (lincar) 50+15+15+15= 95 rabbits 50+15.3 =95 rabbits Don't forget about the age old question of What is the definition of hallucinations?
& # of years
dinosapnas
• 30 doll Billioner (Billion) Don't forget about the age old question of Are we attracted to similar personalities?
or 200
6% increase 14% growth
100
Formula
Future amant start('
50(1+0.06
solabild houvopnous !
(ezino ) SDPOW Hmong Duar
Joah sad
tunowe
near Ex. population increases by 1,000 each year increase by Exponential  s EX. increase by percent each year
Exo pop, increases by 5% each year Interpolation; estimating a value within the range of collected Extrapolation estimating a value for the future! 125 eagles) Ex. year population of eagles in Michigan
 Interpolations estimate #eagles in
dorta
O obl
ОО
0261oobl alolsul
Olb!
Gobi
Extrapolation : Estimate #of eagles in
Oebl
1 0261
ele
Soe

ze Szilo obal Oho! to biasatbp oa6loobl to aloisto Soule
ty tsan I

لضريبا) (C
 
Percent increase lexponentic
growth)
tel 0861 oed old
population the next year
coul
1oof dos h t Time Eagle nation xtyaxis are linear scale
a
Michigan
population as it
porceareas
loool
I
to Joan
I
Utmaib
ad ololo't si atel thoat.help suurem aut lHun sneld in
%ool
Ex. Suppose a colony of worms Population "y" years later has 2500 members and the growth population current year.
llt percent
population reaches 3,000? a) 100 days b) 3 days c) 4 days ol) 50 days Use 4.670% think exponential 3,000
olo
250nui tavattudod taund=JOTOI sholóna uoneindod
Cooldooooooole
(L9H01) ooge = 000€ swom Ell' beet 001= n yaupt, ssangu
susom nogle auth surom ooo ea tan
og=h. Ebrite
O Lault bulanop
Doubling Time for an exponential growth moolel.
at groth a 70 growth rate, as a percent growth
doubling
Earth's carrying capacity 1011 billion percent Logistic growth
pa
Graph
(XI standard
error)
Chardonnay Richardson
Section 8
Study Soup
saule 4 percentage  # of happy people
standard
total # of peope
error)
andard error ho(1o
V n (total # of people) argin of error=1.96.standard error infidence interval is ↑ Ilmargin of error) ule!
nelcoursepoints 4 of Grade Ludwig's Percentage Grade Course poris corned ricipation 900% n paper
10
10.90.18=9
0.76.50=38
al Exam
50
als
1100
185= goal 9+38=47
8547=38
40
Stue
urvey (Practice Test) How much money will he need to spend
on gift
cards?
n=3.92 Soalifind the number of people he has to survey (n) e
3.821 6.SE
Margin of error=1.96.standard error
3.92=1.968 andard deviation  Standard error 3.92_s
T96
40=an R 40=2 20=0
o participant
ra 202=n=400 •Standard
Deniation=40 om=3.92
400.25=10,000
1, it means the disease is likely present so, it means that the individualtested most
3  Chardonnay Richardson ositie test result is not opool, it means the eoptive test result is not bool, it means th Ayoloes not have the disease butts fall into the following categories we positive
I corect False positive est result is & result ! sitive and the
the disease
nent has the sease
alse negative
True negatire a
Test resuHis negative and the patient actuall
est rett is gathe bit incorrect
does not have disease
correct result
es have sease
test result is positive but the patient does not have
Pincorrect result
patient
result
Study So
ensitivity of a test is the probability that the test will detect the disease ina erson that has the disease nativity=true positives
true postie all who have the disease true oos & false nea. ecificity of atest is the probability that the test will give negative results
a person who does not have the disease ecficity = truenegatives
= true negative all who do not havedisease the nea + false
100,000 people with a sore throot
Number we expect do not have strep" 85,000 people
Number we expect to have strep throat
15,000 people
Number we expect to have Stred throat and test negative
5,310°
Number
over we expect to not have strep throat
and test negative
we expect
82,250
to not have strep throat
so prevalence does not affect
and test positive
senstvity or specifiche
2,720
Sensterty and specifichu.
1 As prevalencet
are charactersHcs of a
decreasesPPV
7 medical test decreases Prev
Prevalence does affect ppp AS orevalence increases
NOV Por decede also
increase
lo of
we ber
Do Number
expect
to have
throbt and test po Stiven
stree
perrgiven in
percent)
out
ve opv98%> about
Ideare
actual do have disease NPV
of 100 people who
COO
tudySoup
many people had strep throat and tested positi many total people tested postive? 12 410 percentage of people who tested positive actually had strepthroat778%
Latve predictive value for the rapid strep test in porta? 280+5310=87,500 38B = 044%
SOU
alence: the percentage of people from a specific risk group that we exnect vally have the condition Sturtu for people who have the condition, this is the probabilite, thround ve the correct result (positive result) eceive the correct result (negative resul)"
people who do not have the condition, this is the probability that ove predictive value (PPV) for people who receive a postne 5 the probability that they actually have the condition. Hve, predictive value (NPV) for people who receive a negative test resuh is the probability that they really do not have the condition tivity and Specifichy do not depend on prevalence popv and NPV do depend chorocterishes of the test
on
enstitu= true pas
Spectficthy
false jenegt false neg
thens Aitu 97,804 3920
40
100
chstwty olo gives truel Tane test Spise Senshi bosenstvity gues false o receiveHPVIPV
4 true post
 positive predictive value
 negative predictive value fif guren NPV or PPV, dont need to draw a tree
hienes pos it aven testresutoniu use ppv, NPVue dont know whether or not we hare the condition) l. a) 39% b) 100%30%=61010 have a result, olo not use NPV.
More likely we don't have condition 2. False positive
Test 3 questions from this
3. positive Predictive valve
page do you know if the
4.a. 100,000
risks above are absolute
Has , P olont
nshs or relative risks? If the chances are 3,50% then the chances are linaa If the chances are 400%, the the chances are a ins.
aco
40
3.5
Problem What does at
D.Por=true o 100 = 0.0809
mean? 2,4 men per 1000
true false 0 1907 1996
mean
587%
C.NDV=true
97.804
Questions, which gender
  0.gopa had the laraest of true 0 t ffalse 0 97,804t10 ggggolol increase in heroin use, sl.0.0860.400=34.76 40035365
Female
35, 365
find "m" stunning absolute into relative measure
Under lur old
I death & oleaths 38 thousand & Too thousan
100=38 * x=2.6 A 2.6 death per 100,000 makes tow to calculate % change New rateold rate x 100%1.60.8.100
olol rate
anosAPI
(
Study foup
G
86.100=100% WPVnegative predictive value nown negative result robability that a person wn not have the disease
pv 84000 84 out of 100 people who tested negative actuall o not have disease So 16 tested negative, but olo nove disease
false
cative
neo nown condition
If you know a person has or oloes not have a condition then use sensitivity or specificity e
? Use these if you don't kny test resursutt first EPPV is less than 50% then Ppy) now to or more likely you don't sensitivity you get a positive result sensitinty Don't
Dont
States resut NPV
test re
Specifa