EXA country's population
growing at a rate of 4.5 million per year. how many people will be in the country in 10 years!
a)77 million b) 60 million 95 million d) 45 million Linear growth
current poptrate xu years later Population lly" years later=curr Current pop= 50 million u=10 year 50+ 4.5.10
50+45=90 million Log scale
& 4 8 16 327 Don't forget about the age old question of What is the definition of sexual?
etio 100 1000 10,000
100? v Week 8
• equal sized spaces correspond to addition of a particula number
If you want to learn more check out What is the content of los ultimos de filipinas?
o associated with "absolute change" Log scale sequal sized spaces correspond to multiplication of a particular number
associated with relative or percent change Ex. Dr. A's class 20 people got 4.0 Dr. Bis class a people got 4.0
~ Absolute measure know more information in Dr. A's class there were 4 stu
Relative measure: Dr. A 1000 • 100% = do got 4.0 Dr. B's class : 100% > 50% got4.0 violeos Below age 15, there are two Billidh children Each level is a 15 year age Sillido children 15-30 (& Billion) If you want to learn more check out Contribution margin income statement refers to what?
2:45 Billion) .60 years and older (1 Billion)
So around eleven Billion by the year 2100 If there is O rabbits, how many are there in 3 years (lincar) 50+15+15+15= 95 rabbits 50+15.3 =95 rabbits If you want to learn more check out What is the definition of chain-style business operation?
& # of years
• 30 doll Billioner (Billion)
6% increase 14% growth
Future amant -start('
50(1+0.06 We also discuss several other topics like What does psychosis mean?
solabild houvopnous !
(ezino ) SDPOW Hmong Duar
near- Ex. population increases by 1,000 each year increase by Exponential - s EX. increase by percent each year
Exo pop, increases by 5% each year Interpolation; estimating a value within the range of collected Extrapolation estimating a value for the future! 125 eagles) Ex. year population of eagles in Michigan We also discuss several other topics like Are we attracted to similar personalities?
- Interpolations estimate #eagles in
Extrapolation : Estimate #of eagles in
ze Szilo obal Oho! to biasatbp oa6l-oobl to aloisto Soule
ty tsan I
Percent increase lexponentic
tel 0861 oed old
population the next year
1oof dos h t Time Eagle nation xty-axis are linear scale
population as it
ad ololo't si atel thoat.help suurem aut lHun sneld in
Ex. Suppose a colony of worms Population "y" years later has 2500 members and the growth population current year.
population reaches 3,000? a) 100 days b) 3 days c) 4 days ol) 50 days Use 4.670% think exponential 3,000
250nui tavattudod taund=JOTOI sholóna uoneindod
(L9H01) ooge = 000€ swom Ell' beet 001= n yaupt, ssangu
susom nogle auth surom ooo ea tan
O Lault bulanop
Doubling Time for an exponential growth moolel.
at groth a 70 growth rate, as a percent growth
Earth's carrying capacity 10-11 billion percent Logistic growth
saule 4 -percentage - # of happy people
total # of peope
andard error ho(1-o
V n (total # of people) argin of error=1.96.standard error infidence interval is ↑ Ilmargin of error) ule!
nelcoursepoints 4 of Grade Ludwig's Percentage Grade Course poris corned ricipation 900% n paper
185= goal 9+38=47
urvey (Practice Test) How much money will he need to spend
n=3.92 Soalifind the number of people he has to survey (n) e
Margin of error=1.96.standard error
3.92=1.968 andard deviation - Standard error 3.92_s
40=an R 40=2 20=0
ra 202=n=400 •Standard
1, it means the disease is likely present so, it means that the individualtested most
3 - Chardonnay Richardson ositie test result is not opool, it means the eoptive test result is not bool, it means th Ayoloes not have the disease butts fall into the following categories we positive
I corect False positive est result is & result ! sitive and the
nent has the sease
True negatire a
Test resuHis negative and the patient actuall
est rett is gathe bit incorrect
does not have disease
es have sease
test result is positive but the patient does not have
ensitivity of a test is the probability that the test will detect the disease ina erson that has the disease -nativity=true positives
true postie all who have the disease true oos & false nea. ecificity of atest is the probability that the test will give negative results
a person who does not have the disease ecficity = truenegatives
-= true negative all who do not havedisease the nea + false
100,000 people with a sore throot
Number we expect do not have strep" 85,000 people
Number we expect to have strep throat
Number we expect to have Stred throat and test negative
over we expect to not have strep throat
and test negative
to not have strep throat
so prevalence does not affect
and test positive
senstvity or specifiche
Sensterty and specifichu.
1 As prevalencet
are charactersHcs of a
7 medical test decreases Prev
Prevalence does affect ppp AS orevalence increases
NOV Por decede also
throbt and test po Stiven
ve opv-98%> about
actual do have disease NPV
of 100 people who
many people had strep throat and tested positi many total people tested postive? 12 410 percentage of people who tested positive actually had strepthroat778%
Latve predictive value for the rapid strep test in porta? 280+5310=87,500 38B = 044%
alence: the percentage of people from a specific risk group that we exnect vally have the condition Sturtu for people who have the condition, this is the probabilite, thround ve the correct result (positive result) eceive the correct result (negative resul)"
people who do not have the condition, this is the probability that ove predictive value (PPV) for people who receive a postne 5 the probability that they actually have the condition. Hve, predictive value (NPV) for people who receive a negative test resuh is the probability that they really do not have the condition tivity and Specifichy do not depend on prevalence popv and NPV do depend chorocterishes of the test
enstitu= true pas
false jenegt false neg
thens Aitu 97,804 3920
chstwty olo gives truel Tane test- Spise Senshi bosenstvity gues false o receiveHPVIPV
4 true post
- positive predictive value
- negative predictive value fif guren NPV or PPV, dont need to draw a tree
hienes pos it aven testresutoniu use ppv, NPVue dont know whether or not we hare the condition) l. a) 39% b) 100%-30%=61010 have a result, olo not use NPV.
More likely we don't have condition 2. False positive
Test 3 questions from this
3. positive Predictive valve
page- do you know if the
risks above are absolute
Has , P olont
nshs or relative risks? If the chances are 3,50% then the chances are linaa If the chances are 400%, the the chances are a ins.
Problem- What does at
D.Por=true o -100 = 0.0809
mean? 2,4 men per 1000
true false 0 1907 1996
Questions, which gender
- - 0.gopa had the laraest of true 0 t ffalse 0 97,804t10 ggggolol increase in heroin use, sl.0.0860.400=34.76 400-35-365
find "m" stunning absolute into relative measure
Under lur old
I death & oleaths 38 thousand & Too thousan
100=38 * x=2.6 A 2.6 death per 100,000 makes tow to calculate % change New rate-old rate x 100%-1.6-0.8.100
86.100=100% WPV-negative predictive value nown negative result robability that a person wn not have the disease
pv 84000 84 out of 100 people who tested negative actuall o not have disease So 16 tested negative, but olo nove disease
neo nown condition
If you know a person has or oloes not have a condition then use sensitivity or specificity e
? Use these if you don't kny test resursutt first EPPV is less than 50% then Ppy) now to or more likely you don't sensitivity you get a positive result sensitinty Don't
States resut NPV