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by: Ms. Imani Mante


Ms. Imani Mante
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Theodore Anderson

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Theodore Anderson
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This 10 page Study Guide was uploaded by Ms. Imani Mante on Wednesday September 9, 2015. The Study Guide belongs to ATM S 111 at University of Washington taught by Theodore Anderson in Fall. Since its upload, it has received 53 views. For similar materials see /class/192394/atm-s-111-university-of-washington in Atmospheric Science at University of Washington.




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Date Created: 09/09/15
ATM S 111 Global Warming Spring 2008 WeekZ Study Guide Readings Required Text Ch 7 all IPCC 2007 Working Group II Summary for Policymakers 16pp Supplemental IPCC 2007 Working Group 11 Technical Summary 56 pp Holdren et al 2008 quotScience and Technology for Sustainable WellBeingquot Science 319 424434 Hansen Jim 2007 quotClimate Catastrophequot New Scientist Hansen Jim 2007 quotSave the Wild Perspective of a Climatologistquot Kolbert Elizabeth 2006 Field Notes from a Catastrophe Chap 4 on impacts of global warming on insects and other animals Chap 5 on past climate changes linked to the collapse of civilizations Available on class website click on quotReadingsquot Science Vocabular thermal expansion of water why this leads to sealevel rise land ice vs sea ice which can affect sealevel if it melts land subsidence sinking of land e g due to extracting groundwater and preventing natural sediment delivery by rivers carbon dioxide fertilization effect see Houghton p 166 low latitudes also known as quottropicsquot between 30S and 30N midlatitudes between latitudes 30 and 60 of both hemispheres highlatitudes also known as quotpolar regionsquot between latitudes 60 and 90 of both hemispheres water cycle terms precipitation evaporation runoff ground water IPCC confidence levels and equivalent terms virtually certain is gt99 very likely is gt90 likely is gt66 more likely than not is gt50 main sectors for which impacts have been studied by IPCC water resources agriculture or food coastal areas human health ecosystems categories of extreme weather that have been studied by IPCC high and low daily temperatures heat waves heavy precipitation events droughts hurricanes or tropical cyclones singular nonlinear events a type of global warming impact that involves a largescale and essentially irreversible transition in the global climate or social order see Houghton Table 74 sources and sinks eg for atmospheric C02 fossilfuel burning is a source while growing trees are a sink Acronvms and svmbols van are expected to know IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change WG 1 WG II WG 111 Working Groups 1 2 and 3 SPM Summary for Policymakers GDP gross domestic product for one country plof2 GWP global world product or aggregated GDP for all countries BAU scenarios businessasusual emission scenarios used for IPCC projections Facts and Concegts the two key ways that global warming affects sealevel role of land subsidence in sealevel rise this is occurring in all the world s populated river deltas due to human development practices and is in fact the major cause of coastal ooding both now and for the foreseeable future sealevel rise due to global warming aggravates this problem sealevel rise projections by 2100 according to IPCC well below a meter 0206 m sealevel rise associated with major icesheet loss many meters say 525 m important process that is not considered in IPCC sealevel projections through 2100 rapid icesheet disintegration leading scientist who considers sealevel projections to be much too low Jim Hansen importance of winter snowpack to summer water supply in many regions including Pacific NW because of that how global warming can decrease summer water supply even if precipitation increases see Houghton Fig 77 evaporation increases with temperature thus warming can reduce water availability three main ways that climate change impacts agriculture and how these three factors play out differently between low latitudes and mid to highlatitudes see Houghton p165 167 forests store large amounts of carbon and deforestation releases that carbon to the atmosphere replanting trees conversely can remove carbon from the atmosphere current estimates of economic costs of global warming due to doubling atmospheric C02 which would happen this century if we follow businessasusual are a few percent of GWP with very large uncertainty Houghton p184186 p20f2 ATM s 111 Global Warming Spring 2008 Week 1 Study Guide Readings Required Text Ch 1 all p113 Ch 9 p230231 Ch 10 p242244 246249 IPCC 2007 Working Group I Summaryfor Policymakers 18pp GHG Data 2006 Highlights from Greenhouse Gas GHG Emissions Data for 19902004 for Annex I Parties 24pp Supplemental Holdren et al 2008 quotScience and Technology for Sustainable WellBeingquot Science 319 424434 Kerr 2004 Getting warmer however you measure it Science 304 805 Kolbert Elizabeth 2006 Field Notes from a Catastrophe Chap 1 on evidence of warming in the Arctic Chap 8 on Kyoto Protocol and recent US policies Available on class website click on Readings then look under quotAdditional RequiredReadings Science Vocabulary Metric pre xes 103 kilo eg kg kilogram 1000 grams km kilometer 1000 meters 106 Mega eg Mg Mton 109 Giga eg Gg Gbyte 1012 Tera eg Tg Tbyte 1015 Peta eg Pg metric ton 1000 kg this happens to be close to 1 US ton which is 2000 lbs 1 metric ton 1000 kg 2200 lbs 11 US tons Temperature scales C or C refers to Celcius K refers to the Kelvin or absolute temperature scale F refers to Fahrenheit Here we are mostly concerned with changes in mean temperature ie anomalies A change of1 C a change of1 K a change of 95 F temperature anomaly departure from the average over some reference period proxy temperature records data available from the distant past on some property that is sensitive to temperature and can therefore be used to infer temperatures before thermometer measurements were available eg tree rings pollen records isotope ratios from icecores mean temperature same as average temperature quotmeanquot and quotaveragequot are synonyms Acronyms and symbols you are expected to know GAAST globalannualaverage surface temperature GHG greenhouse gas heattrapping constituent of the atmosphere C02 or CO2 carbon dioxide the main humanperturbed GHG GWP global warming potential UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Concepts scienti c uncertainty To a scientist quotuncertaintyquot does not connote quotignorancequot Rather it is a measure of how accurately we know something It is a key aspect of scienti c knowledge and something we strive very hard to quantify climate vs weather basically climate is the longterm average of weather temperature trend warming or cooling tendency based on many years of data using simple statistics we can calculate whether a trend is present how steep it is and how con dence we are that it is real adaptation vs mitigation two responses to the global warming problem iceage interglacial which are we in right now when was the most recent change from one to the other Pinatubo volcano 1991 provided a test of climate models eXplain El Nino About how often does this occur How widespread are the effects Is this thought to be a natural phenomenon or one caused by human activity deforestation How does this affect atmospheric COZ types of eXtreme weather cold snap heat wave wind storm heavy precipitation ood drought hurricanetyphoon 1 and 1 The Rio Declaration on Environment and Development 1992 for short Rio Declaration United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 1992 for short UNFCCC or Rio Climate Convention Annex I countries be able to de ne see below Kyoto Protocol Signed Dec 1997 by 160 nations including US came into force Feb 2005 without US which never rati ed it when Russia officially rati ed it sustainable development be able to de ne precautionary principle be able to de ne polluterpays principle be able to de ne quotdangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate systemquot the key phrase in the 1992 global warming potential GWP Factor that converts emissions of any GHG to equivalent emissions of CO2 GWP for CO2 is 1 by de nition For other GHG s the GWP depends on timehorizon because these gases have very different atmospheric lifetimes For a 20year time horizon GWP for methane is 72 meaning emission of 1 g of methane is equivalent to emission of 72 g of CO2 For a 100year time horizon GWP for methane is only 25 This is a lower number because methane has a relatively short atmospheric lifetime about 12 years such that its impact on a 100year time scale is greatly reduced compared to its impact on a 20 year time scale GWPvalues are used in the UNFCCC reporting procedures to compute total GHG emissions for each country Signatories to the UNFCCC are split into two groups AnneX I Developedindustrialized countries that agree to reduce emissions nonAnneX I Developing countries that have no obligation to reduce emissions at the present time but do agree to report emissions and participate on a voluntary basis in various clean development programs Annex 1 countries are divided into two groups AnneX II countries are AnneX I countries that have agreed to pay developing countries to help them develop in environmentally benign ways EIT countries are AnneX I countries with quoteconomies in transitionquot such that they are not required to pay developing countries ATM s 111 Global Warming Spring 2008 Final Study Guide You are expected to know everything discussed in Study Guides 14 Much of the Final Exam will cover the same material as the Midterm Equations Three types of equations you need to memorize and be able to use in solving problems 1 Energy Balance Theory of Climate Change this equation has two forms equilibrium warming transient warming see Study Guide 3 HW 3 key problems 2 and 3 HW 5 key problem 1 2 Geochemical c cle anal sis reservoirs burdens sources and sinks 391 time burdensinks Irate of 39 quot sources sinksl see Study Guide 4 HW 4 key problem 3 Discussion 5 problem 1 3 Kaya identit for analyzing factors causin chanes in C02 emissions or equivalently where h ef see HW 6 key problems 3 5 Acronyms and symbols you are expected to know everything on Study Guides 14 with this correction GDP Gross Domestic Product of a country or of the entire world GWP global warming potential of any GHG with respect to C02 GWP will not be used to mean quotGross World Productquot Science Vocobulorv vou are expected to know everything on Study Guides 14 plus energy intensity of the economy see HW 6 key problems 35 carbon intensity of energy see HW 6 key problems 35 carbon intensity of the economy see HW 6 key problems 35 stabilization wedges see Discussion 9 carbon sequestration also known as carbon capture and storage see teXt Concegts everything on Study Guides 14 plus De nition of a Chaotic System probably not what you think see Houghton Chap 5 p84 answer A system quotwhose behavior is so highly sensitive to the initial conditions from which it started that precise future prediction is not possiblequot Equilibrium climate change versus Transient Climate Change see HW 5 key problem 1 Ocean thermal lag see HW 5 key problem 2 Distinguish a positive feedback from a negative feedback answer A positive feedback ampli es an initial disturbance creating additional change in the same direction as the initial change This tends to be destabilizing A negative feedback reduces or dampens the initial disturbance This tends to be stabilizing The three major climate feedbacks the sign of each positive or negative and the uncertainty of each see HW 5 key problem 4 Why do low clouds have a cooling effect on the Earth s energy balance Answer Low clouds re ect sunlight very effectively but are not very effective at trapping infrared radiation because the cloud temperature is only slightly cooler than the surface If a warming climate caused more low clouds to form would this be a positive or negative feedback Answer More low clouds would tend to cool the climate which acts opposite to the initial warming So if this were to happen it would be a negative feedback plof2 If a cooling climate caused fewer low clouds to form would this be a positive or negative feedback Answer Fewer low clouds would tend to warm the climate which acts opposite to the initial cooling So this would be a negative feedback just like the case above Karl Popper s description of how science advances see HW 5 key problem 5 What is the difference between a climate change prediction and a climate change simulation answer a prediction is about the future a simulation is about the past where the temperature changes are known and the climate model is attempting to reproduce those changes Four major sources of uncertainty in climatechange predictions see Houghton Ch 9 p 217 GHG emissions the human factor changes in global population economy and technology cloud response cloud feedback is the main cause of uncertainty in climate sensitivity ocean response ocean thermal lag and changes in ocean currents are the main factors controlling the timing and regional patterns of climate change polar icesheet response big wildcard controlling magnitude and rate of sealevel rise What causes more uncertainty in forecast temperature change in 40 years by 2050 i human actions that determine GHG emissions and thus climate forcing or ii how nature works as represented by the Earth s climate sensitivity answer ii see Discussion 6 Current climate forcing by humans has a very large uncertainty best guess is 16 Wm2 with a range from 06 to 24 Wm2 according to IPCC 2007 which is a factor of three uncertainty What forcing agent is responsible for most of this uncertainty answer forcing by anthropogenic aerosols By the year 2100 if we follow any of the BAU scenarios anthropogenic climate forcing will be much larger of order 5 Wmz and will have a much smaller fractional uncertainty about 1 Wm2 for a given emission scenario which is 20 Explain answer Aerosols which cause a negative forcing that currently counteracts a large part of GHG forcing do not accumulate in the atmosphere Thus aerosol forcing and its associated uncertainty will not increase much in the future On the other hand GHG s which cause a positive forcing that is very accurately known are accumulating rapidly under all of the BAU scenarios Thus over time the relative importance of aerosol forcing will diminish total forcing will become much larger and the uncertainty of total forcing will become much smaller in a fractional sense What phrase was deleted from NASA s Mission Statement in 2004 by the Bush Administration answer quotTo understand and protect the home planetquot Four key assertions of Global Warming Science according to Tad Anderson see Week 8 handout on this The three major economic sectors in terms of energy use are Buildings Transport and Industry Rank these in terms of their share in global carbon emissions see Houghton Table 114 answer Industry highest Buildings Transport lowest Rank these in terms of the percentage rate at which emissions are currently growing answer Transport highest Buildings Industry lowest Facts to know love and memorize everything on Study Guides 14 plus Current atmospheric concentration of CO2 N380 ppm Current rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 N2 ppmyr Current anthropogenic emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels N8 GtCyr Fraction of current global energy from fossil fuels 85 Widely cited value of maXimum allowable global warming to avoid substantial risk of catastrophic effects eg this value adopted by European Union Stabilization level of atmospheric CO2 to prevent warming greater than this 2 C threshold Current uncertainty in climate sensitivity 2 C above preindustrial 400 450 ppm factor of three 15 C to 45 C warming for double CO2 Current uncertainty in total anthropogenic climate forcing factor of four 06 to 24 Wmz p20f2 ATM S 111 Global Warming Spring 2008 Week 4 Study Guide Readings Required Text Ch 3 quotGreenhouse gasesquot Ch 4 quotClimate of the Pastquot IPCC 2007 Working Group I Summaryfor Policymakers 18pp Supplemental IPCC 2007 Working Group 1 Technical Summary 74 pp IPCC 2007 Working Group 1 Frequently Asked Questions Lockwood M and Froehlich C 2007 quotRecent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperaturequot The Royal Society 14 pp A favorite argument of global warming skeptics is that recent climate changes are tightly correlated with solar variations implying that they are caused by the Sun and not by any human factors Unfortunately for this hypothesis the correlations fall apart when data from the last decade are included Available on class website click on quotReadingsquot Science Vocabular C02 carbon dioxide CH4 methane N20 nitrous oxide CFCs chloro orocarbons also known as quotfreonsquot atmospheric aerosols solid or liquid particles in the suspended in atmosphere but smaller than cloud droplets traditionally diameter lt 10 micrometers anthropogenic aerosols aerosols derived from human activities radiative forcing Houghton and IPCC use this term I use quotclimate forcingquot global carbon cycle example of quotbiogeochemical cycle analysis quot see below terms associated with cycle analysis reservoirs burdens uxes residence time source sink isotopes same element number of protons but different atomic mass due to different number of neutrons know the key isotopes of carbon and oxygen fractionation The tendency for the proportion of an isotope to change as a result of some process For example evaporation preferentially selects lighter water molecules those with 160 oxygen as opposed to the heavier 18O which leaves the remaining liquid water with a slightly higher proportion of 18O stratosphere and troposphere photosynthesis and respiration combustion offossil fuels orbital cycles there are three tilt precession eccentricity and their relation to iceages Chemical conventions you are expected to know Isotopes are designated by a superscript preceding the element symbol the superscript indicates the atomic mass of that isotope For example 60 and 1 O are the two isotopic forms of oxygen Molecular formulas use subscripts after the element symbol to designate the number of atoms of that element that occur in the molecule For example H20 water has two atoms of hydrogen and one of oxygen CH4 methane has one atom of carbon and four atoms of hydrogen plof4 In chemical reactions a fullsize number preceding a molecule indicates how many of that molecule are involved For example CH4 202 9 C0 2HzO indicates that one molecule of methane reacts with two molecules of oxygen to create one molecule of carbon dioxide and two molecules of water This is the oxidation or burning of methane Facts and Concegts Eight marker events in Earth history to be memorized Date Event 46 billion ybp years before present formation of planet Earth N4 billion ybp origin of life 2 billion ybp atmospheric oxygen rises to essentially modern levels 600900 million ybp global glaciations of the Late Proterozoic Snowball Earth 540 million ybp Cambrian explosion of multicellular life and beginning of fossil record 65 million ybp extinction of dinosaurs by asteroid impact N3 million ybp beginning of Pleistocene glaciations 10000 ybp end of the most recent iceage beginning of the current interglacial period Icecores and ocean sediment cores In ocean sediment cores the amount of 180 reveals glacial ice volume know why In ice cores the amount of 18O is a proxy for temperature don39t worry about why In ice cores trapped air bubbles reveal past C02 concentrations in the atmosphere Earth history shows that there are stable states for the climate system other than the one we are currently experiencing Be able to name at least three such states Scientists divide the atmosphere into many layers but only two are critical for this class the Troposphere about 015 km altitude where quotweatherquot occurs and the Stratosphere about 1550 km altitude containing substantial quantities of ozone 03 Temperature decreases with height in the Troposphere which makes it unstable leading to vertical motions clouds and precipitation One consequence is that aerosol particles are quickly removed from the Troposphere within a few days by precipitation In the Stratosphere temperature increases with height making it very stable The heating comes from absorption of ultraviolet UV radiation from the Sun by ozone This turns out to be very handy as it protects life forms at the Earth s surface from damaging UV radiation The stable structure means that there are almost no clouds or precipitation in the Stratosphere One consequence is that aerosol particles injected there by volcanoes can remain for 13 years until they eventually settle out due to gravity a very slow process for particles that are around 1 millionth of a meter in size Be able to explain how the Earth s atmosphere came to have such a high concentration of oxygen 21 of the atmosphere at present given that it started out with almost none p20f4 answer Early earth atmosphere was mostly C02 and had almost no oxygen Photosynthetic life takes in atmospheric C02 and emits oxygen as a waste product The oxygen built up slowly taking roughly 2 billion years from the origin of life to the attainment of essentially moalern levels of 02 in the atmosphere Know how the rise of oxygen in the atmosphere made possible plant life on land even though plants do not require oxygen Know the time scales associated with natural climate variations El NinoLa Nina cycles sunspots ice ages seasons climate impact from a single volcanic eruption Know how volcanoes can affect global climate Explain why the time scale of the climate perturbation from a single volcanic eruption is 13 years climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols alirect aerosol forcing is re ection of sunlight by the particles themselves inalirect aerosol forcing occurs when anthropogenic aerosols modify clouds in such as way as to change radiative balance the best understood indirect mechanism is called the cloud albealo effect wherein anthropogenic aerosols increase the number of cloud droplets which in turn increases cloud re ectivity The key points to know about anthropogenic aerosol forcing are i that it is thought to be negative and thus to counteract positive forcing by anthropogenic GHGs and ii that it is enormously uncertain which leads to large uncertainty in total forcing by humans over the 20th century In the future the total climate forcing by humans GHGs plus aerosol will become more and more positive and the uncertainty associated with aerosol forcing will become less and less important You should understand why Two chemical reactions to memorize and understand photosynthesis C0 H20 9 CHzO 02 requires energy from the sun burning or respiration CHzO 02 9 C02 H20 the reverse releases energy Biogeochemical cycle analysis This is the technical term for type of analysis discussed in Houghton Chap 3 under the heading quotCarbon cyclequot It is a fundamental tool of Earth system science In studying some chemical species like carbon you identify the main reservoirs in which it is found and then attempt to quantify the burden or amount of material in each reservoir and the uxes rate of transfer between reservoirs Fluxes into a reservoir are called sources while uxes out of a reservoir are called sinks Two types of analysis are possible i bualget analysis of the sources and sinks for any reservoir and see if it balances If the uxes don t balance then the burden in that reservoir should be changing For example if the sources are greater than the sinks then the burden should be increasing at a rate equal to the sources minus the sinks Houghton discusses such a budget analysis for atmospheric C02 using Figure 31 Table 31 and the associated text ii timescale analysis Here you can calculate the characteristic residence time for material to ow through a reservoir or quantities like the time required to double the burden in a reservoir at the current rate of increase Generally the different reservoirs p3of4 have very different timescales For example it can readily be shown that carbon cycles through the atmosphere much faster than through the ocean This implies in turn that it is much easier to change the atmospheric concentration than to change the oceanic concetration Nevertheless the timescale for removing anthropogenic carbon from the atmosphere is much longer than a human lifetime Resident Time equation to memorize and be able to use Residence Time or Lifetime of material cycling through a reservoir Residence Time Burden Sink where Burden means the amount of material present in the reservoir Sink means the rate at which material is removed from the reservoir Other greenhouse gases besides C02 i You should know the three types of long lived GH G other than C02 that are perturbed by human activities Answer39 CH4 methane N20 nitrous oxide and CF Cs chlorofluorocarbons which is actually a family of compounds however these are slowly going away because they have been phased out to protect the stratospheric ozone layer ii Water vapor You should know that water vapor and clouds are responsible for the vast majority of the greenhouse effect on Earth something like 90 Nevertheless water vapor and clouds do not cause climate forcings How can this be It is a slightly tricky point and you should understand it Fundamentally it is a matter of timescales Water vapor and clouds have very short atmospheric lifetimes a few days such that they are constantly adjusting to the state of the climate They are quotinternalquot to the climate system and thus not subject to direct in uence by human activity Power plants emit lots of water vapor for example but all this water simply rains out within a day or two and has no significant effect on the amount water vapor in the atmosphere In contrast by burning fossil fuels humans are directly altering the atmospheric concentration of C02 for many centuries Thus we are imposing a longterm change in energy balance in other words a climate forcing Now water vapor is expected to increase in the atmosphere in response to a warming climate and this in turn is expected to increase the Earth39s greenhouse effect and lead to further warming Note however that this is a response of the climate system not a direct result of human emissions When the climate system responds to warming in a way that tends to cause yet more warming this is called a positive feedback Water vapor it turns out is the main example of a positive or amplifying feedback in the Earth s climate system How clouds will respond is a matter of great uncertainty More on that in Chap 5 p4of4


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