POLS 1020 EXAM II STUDY GUIDE (MORE DETAILED)
POLS 1020 EXAM II STUDY GUIDE (MORE DETAILED) Political science 1020
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This 22 page Study Guide was uploaded by Eunji Kim on Wednesday March 9, 2016. The Study Guide belongs to Political science 1020 at Clemson University taught by Aron G. Tannenbaum in Spring 2016. Since its upload, it has received 25 views. For similar materials see Introduction to International Relations in Political Science at Clemson University.
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STUDY GUIDE EXAM 2 POLS 1020 The Ministry of Happiness (Weeks 6-10) The Return of Great Power Politics What is “Power Politics”? “A perspective……….. states.” Shimko p. 60 Review of Realism Pessimistic view of human nature Westphalia system – int’l anarchy o Political independence/territorial integrity Disbelieving in Democratic Peace Theory Rodney King So what should a state do? The essence of a realist foreign policy “The strong do what they have to do and the weak accept what they have to accept.” – Thucydides Tools for IR analysis - Level 3 analysis, the systemic level - Main characteristics of the int’l system o Anarchy/absence of world gov’t/ o Each state has to arrange for its own survival - The two most important goals of any state o Preserve political independence o Preserve territorial integrity Does Terrorism Threaten National Security a surprising answer - Pearl Harbor (3000 killed), was a direct threat to national security. Military attack to military fleek. Japanese attack. It did threaten political independence, or government. - 9/11 (3000 killed) It wasn’t threatening at all. “Just killed 3000 people”. The Security Dilemma “The problem states face…” Shimko, p. 42 IR Liberal Alternative to Power Politics “The group of [state]… nonviolence.” Shimko p. 72 Two examples of a security Community - Scandinavia (p. 70) - European Union Balance of Power o Equilibrium (balance of power) war less likely [HARD TO STAY equilibrium] o Disequilibrium (Imbalance of Power) war more likely Balance of Power, two smaller states and one large state Power equation: (B + C) = A; B (France), A (Germany), C (Russia) Balance of power in recent history - Power was balance, 1815-1914 o Concert of Europe Balance of Power Russia & France = England = Prussia/Germany & Austria-Hungary But they released their stress by invading other countries except Europe th o Britain as Offshore Balancer, 19 Century - Why did the balance of power fail I n1914, leading to WWI? o There was a rough balance of power among the Great Powers before 194 o But each side feared that the other side would upset that balance = a security dilemma o So each side prepared for war o Those preparations created a trip-wire effect o A small incident touched off the world war o This situation contradicts the idea that a balance pf power makes war less likely - Why did the balance of power fail in 1930s Europe (1939), leading to WWII? o The balance was not maintained by the weaker side o Britain and France did not stop Hitler’s Germany re-arming itself, and didn’t re-arm themselves fast enough o The US was isolationist and refused to lend support to the British and French o Hitler calculated the imbalance of power favored Germany, so he started the war - Balance of Power worked o Cold War equilibrium 1940s-1980s - What if there’s No balance of power? o Why did George W. Bush Decide to invade Iraq in 2003? o Because I can do whatever I want when there’s no strong country challenging us - Balance of Power Failed: o The USA Unleashed itself after the Cold War ISIS 2015 - ? Libya 2011 Iraq 2003 – 2011? Afghanistan 2001 – 2014? Kosovo 1999 Somalia 1992 - 1993 Persian Gulf 1990 - 1991 Panama 1989 One Superpower, Many Great Powers early 21 Century - The essence of realists says, “The strong do what they have to do and the weak accept what they have to accept.” – Thucydides Power measurement - The difficulty of Measuring Power, US and Vietnam 1961 – 1975 - Power Imbalance Victory Goes to the “Weaker” side o Vietnam 1970s Area 128,000 square miles Population 52 million GNP $ 4 billion GNP / Capita $ 85 o USA 1970s o Area 3,700,000 square miles o Population 210 million o GNP $ 1.7 trillion o GNP / capita $ 19,000 - Amorality of balance of Power, only Nixon could go to China - Revisionist States o Russia o China o India o Iran o US? - Status Quo States o Britain o France o Germany o Most other European States o Japan o US? - Balance of Power Reconsidered o Measurement of power o Security Dilemma Reading for Tuesday - Shimko ch. 3 - Kagan, The world America Made, entire POLS 1020 week 7 part II (part I class was cancelled) The American Superpower Power Politics Day 2 Kagan’s book, “American World Order” characteristics: Peace: No war between Great Powers Prosperity: International trade Democracy: More peace, less war! It’s as a liberal project Harmony of interests o Int’l cooperation within a rules-based system of international relations International law/ international organization o Prosperity through international trade that benefits all states economically Optimistic view of human nature o Rodney King: yes, we can! American like to think of themselves in Liberal terms o “Our values are universal values:” o Free and fair elections o Checks and balances on power of government o Freedom of speech, religion, assembly, petition o Individual freedom “Shining city on a hill” Last best hope of mankind” Government of the people, by the people, for the people” American “exceptionalism” Liberalism defines who our friends, Enemies are Dictatorships bad, demo good WW II: Nazis bad, Allies good Cold War: Communists bad, free world good After 9/11: Either you are with us or against us A realist View of the American World Order: The Grand Global strategy of United States Realist version of American History th th o 17 – 19 centuries: Wars against Native Americans to seize their lands o 18 century: US Could not win independence from Britain: without participation of French Fleet th o 19thentury: Wars against European Great Powers for territorial expansion in North America o 19 century: Wars against weaker neighboring countries for territorial expansion in North America Underlying the American World Order is American Power o Why America became the way it is? By using the power and force. Power Imbalance: Comparing Eastern and Western Hemispheres Grand Global Strategy of the U.S. Prevent any one states or combination of states from dominating the Eastern Hemisphere Prevent any Great Power from projecting its power globally Prevent any Great Power from becoming a Regional Hegemon (dominant) The U.S. acts as an Offshore Balancer Axis Conquests in WW II 1942 Sino-Soviet Communist Bloc During the Cold War Post-Soviet Russia Contained by NATO China Contained by US Navy Controlled First and Second Island Chains Great Power and Superpower? What is a Great Power? A Great Power is a state that can project its power on a regional scale What is a Superpower? A superpower is a states that can project its power on a global scale -Europe never had a Great Power, its multi-polarity 1789 – 1945 [several] After 1945, they were self-destructed. -Cold war Superpower bipolarity 1945-1990  -Post-Cold War superpower Uni-polarity, the sole remaining superpower 1990s  st -One Superpower, Many Great Powers, Early 21 Century Is the United States a Revisionist State? Revisionist states - Russia - China - India - Iran - U.S.? 1945 – 1991: US a status-quo state o Maintain the American World order it created after WWII o Military alliances to prevent spread of communism, to contain Soviet power o US navy safeguards international commerce 1991 – present: Revisionist temptation o After Cold war, no superpower check on US Power o US invades Iraq because it can Foundations of American global power projection FIVE Sources of American Power: - Military - Financial, economic - Political stability - American culture - Geography Dominant power of weaker hemisphere Geographic power North America as a World Island Economic Power of Multi – National Corporations (MNCs) U.S. Military Troops and Bases Around the world, U.S. Navy fleets The “soft power” of culture But Climate change is a long-term challenge to American Power Future of American power If American power declines, would the American World Order persist? - Obama: United States is the “indispensable nation” - Other great powers do not necessarily agree with American power order The conditional future of the American world order Can US continue to the sole Superpower Can US resist the Revisionist Temptation? Can US overcome its major internal weaknesses? - Increasing political polarization - Increasing hostility toward “government” - Increasing economic inequality - Increasing tension between nativists and (non-white) immigrants POLS 1020 week 8 part I China and the American World Order - China on the rise Review: Kagan on the American World Order Increased global prosperity through international trade and economic interdependence Spread of democracy No war among the Great Powers China, the American World Order, and economic prosperity Revolutionary: Mao Zedong Reformer: Deng Xiaoping o “It doesn’t matter whether a cat is black or white as long as it catches mice.” In other words, “It doesn’t matter whether we call it socialism or capitalism as long as it produces wealth.” “Chimeria” – the economic interdependence of the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) and the US 10% average annual rate of economic growth, past three decades o State-controlled capitalist economy o Produced greatest anti-poverty program in world history o But large and growing economic inequalities in China o Economic growth rate now slowing down Largest manufacturing and largest exporting country in the world Economic growth due to international trade, part of the American World Order High degree of economic interdependence, China and the United States US Economic Relations with China have become a campaign Issue Consequences of Economic Interdependence o Lower prices of consumer goods for American consumers o Lower-skilled manufacturing jobs in the US go workers in China o Creation of the Ruse Belt, the partial de-industrialization of the United States o Offsetting job gains: US gains higher-paying jobs from Europe, Japan o But large net loss of US jobs The Politics of Chimerica and of Economic Interdependence Generally o “Establishment Republicans” favor Chimerica because it benefits US big business, Wall Street o Democrats are skeptical or opposed but Presidents Clinton and Obama support Chimerica against their own party members and unions o Donald Trump says he will re-negotiate trade deals to reduce or end US job losses o Bernie Sanders rails against the “rigged economy” of which trade deals are part o Hillary Clinton came out against the most recent trade deal between the US and Asian countries Statistical Comparisons United States of America • 3.8 M square miles • 321 M population • 91 people / sq mile • $ 18 T GNP • $ 56K / per capita • Approx 2 % annual economic growth rate People’s Republic of China • 3.7 M square miles • 1.4 B population • 373 people / sq mile • $ 19 T GNP • $ 14K / per capita • Approx 10 % annual economic growth rate China, the American World Order, and democracy Chinese Leaders Fear Democracy o People’s Republic of China, established 1949, ruled by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) o Democracy is a Western import which CCP fears would lead to political destabilization o Explicit rejection of “universal values” o Changing bases of legitimacy of CCP rule: Socialist society Economic prosperity Nationalism Tiananmen Square 1989 Pro-Democracy Demonstration Hong Kong 2014 China, the American World Order, and the rise of Chinese power Is China Rising Peacefully? o Two conceptions of world order o Overcoming the consequences of the Century of Humiliation o Security dilemmas in East Asia o Playing balance of Power games o Historical examples of rising powers and world wars o Conclusions Two Conceptions of World Order o Westphalia Formal equality of sovereign states Preserve independence and territorial integrity Non-interference in internal affairs International anarchy so a security dilemma Occasional development of a security community o Traditional China China was/is the Middle Kingdom Superiority of traditional Chinese culture Other states are of lesser significance Other states must acknowledge superiority of China Overcoming the Century of Humiliation Opium Wars, Early 19 Century Containing China o China Contained by US Navy-Controlled First and second Island Chains Rise of Chinese Nationalism Conclusion o Uneasy for the time being acceptance by China of the American world order o China’s economic rise is enabled by international trade o But China’s internal order is threatened by democracy o So diplomacy between the US and China must be flexible, each side taking into account the security of the other side POLS 1020 week 8 part II European History: That’s where the Action is European Imperialism: “The Sun Never Sets on the British Empire” Warfare makes countries more aggressive, rather than peaceful Europe Destroyed itself in Two World Wars, 1914 – 1945 United States in Western Europe, and Soviet Union in Eastern Europe. Realism and the European Balance of Power 1914 – 1945 Realism, a conservative perspective on international politics, assuming A pessimistic view of human nature Collective / group egotism Inevitability of social conflict And therefore concludes, Inevitability of conflict among states Centrality A harmony of interests is impossible among states Realism failed Europe: Let’s try IR Liberalism, Liberalism An optimistic view of human nature Nurture vs. nature The inevitability of social progress bases on human reason Concludes, Conflict among states is not inevitable Warfare can be controlled, reduced and perhaps eliminated A harmony of interests is possible among states The European Union: Reflects IR Liberalism An Experiment in Applied IR Liberalism The European Union A post- Westphalia Liberal Institution Creation of “an ever closer union” Based on “sharing sovereignty” Borderless continent: free movement of o People/capital/labor/finance/education Search for consensus among political elites, assumption of harmony of interests “Security community:” No use of violence or threat of violence among states, diplomats, leaders But NATO provides a touch of Realism. United States provides a security umbrella for European Union for them not to be violent. Pre-History of the EU Pre- 1945 empires by military conquest o Roman/Holy Roman/Napoleon/Hitler 1952 European Coal and Steel Community 1957 European Economic Community created by the Treaty of Rome 1979 Direct popular elections to European Parliament 1993 EU, created by the Maastricht Treaty 1995 Schengen Agreement, open borders 1996 European Central Bank 2002 New euro currency replaced most European states’ currencies 2009 Creation of the post of President of the European Council (“President of Europe?”) 2012 European Union won the Nobel Peace Prize Three EU locations Strasbourg, on France- German border o European Parliament building Brussels, Belgium o EU administration / Bureaucracy Frankfurt, Germany o European Central Bank From Customs Union to Shared Sovereignty Custom union: lower tariffs among member states and have common external tariff International trade is main staring focus US Marshall Plan forced Europeans to start sharing EU widening and deepening o Widening = adding more countries o Deepening = power shift to Brussels European – level political institutions – o Parliament / elections / courts/ bureaucracy Review Kagan’s 1. Kagan 1: Increased Prosperity through increased international trade Eurozone 19/28 Advantages: o Very popular with consumer o Very popular with large corporations o Enhances “economic and monetary union” Disadvantages: o European central Bank gives Germany economic dominance in the EU Sets common monetary policy But does not set fiscal policy still the preserve of separate national governments And ECB dominated by German bankers, who favor strict monetary policy (austerity) Emphasis on preventing inflation, not on creating jobs So weak response to 2008 financial crisis Result in EU economic inequalities Result in EU Economic growth rate goes negative which Unites States goes positive 2. Kagan 2: Spreading Democracy a. European Parliament Building, Strasbourg (seats 2014 election) b. Executive Branch of the EU (not as clear cut as Parliament) c. EU is a Creation of Political Elites, it has a “democratic deficit” [The thing about smart people is that they seem like crazy people to dumb people] d. An EU “Democratic Deficit. Still alive and well but under attack 3. Kagan 3: A European “ Security Community” a. A successful Liberal project b. Producing unprecedented peace on the European continent c. And producing unprecedented prosperity on the European continent d. But its security is guaranteed by American military power, an intrusion of Realism e. And the EU is facing unprecedented THREE Backlash against the EU Backlash 1: Against the free movement of peoples among EU States o Benefits for migrants o United Stated is in favor of Britain staying in o Come into the warfare to get wealth Backlash 2: Against economic austerity (hard money, hard to start a business, etc.) policies Backlash 3: Against increasing Muslim immigration into EU states. (Most dangerous) o Closing off immigration network Political consequences of backlash o Rise of nationalist sentiment in many EU states o Rise of extremist political parties in many EU states o Further EU deepening is on hold o Growing sentiment for given states to leave the EU 1. Grexit, a possible Greece exit from Eurozone/ EU 2. UKIP the UK independence Party / referendum June 2016 o Backlash against Arab migrants is eroding Schengen; EU states using military force to seal borders again The EU’s Uncertain Future o No common foreign policy o EU punches beneath its weight in international affairs o EU reluctant to confront Russian aggression in Ukraine o IR Liberalism faces its greatest test in our day POLS 1020 week 9 Part I Europe and Russia Applied Liberalism – Europe and Applied Realism Russia Europe has become the paragon of IR Liberal thought and action Russia has become the paragon of Realist thought and action The result is a monumental clash of international relations perspectives With war between the west and Russia as an ever growing possibility Realist Say that Europe has become pussified Pussification: The state in which a society becomes less and less tough. This is noun. The Russia Bear is BACK. Russia Today More Russians today than ever before in history o Live in a more peaceful society o Live in a More prosperously o Live in a More freedom Political credit goes to President Vladimir Putin But Putin’s recent actions put in jeopardy all of the above o He has a soft side?!? Russian Historical Geography Russia Is Largest Country in World Geographical Expansion of Tsarist Russia 1533-1917 Union of Soviet Socialist Republics 1917 – 1991 Russia and the “Near Abroad” 1992 – Present Post-Cold War Geographical Contraction Strategic Retreat From Europe Russia and Kagan’s American World Order 1. Increased prosperity through increased international trade - Russia accepts - Largest oil and natural gas, oil dependent country (companies: Rosneft [Russian Oil], Grasnpom [Production]) 2. Spread of democracy - Russia rejects 3. No war among major powers - Russia objects Kagan’s 1: Double Whammy to Russian Economy Drastic decline of global petroleum price Painful Western economic sanctions o Economically not doing well, unemployment goes up. American and European economics are basically controlling the world economics Kagan’s 2: 1990s Bad Experience with Democracy, no central government control, chaos, collapse. Kagan’s 3: Russia asserts US has too much power o Russia prefers a multipolar world Russia asserts US uses its superior power stupidly o US foreign policy backfires against US itself Ukraine: Thus far and no farther! [America’s point of view conflicted with Russia] Confrontation in Ukraine What is NATO? o North Atlantic Treaty Organization, est. 1949 o Cold War military security pact US protects W Europe from Soviet attack US abandoned warning against “entangling alliances” from Founders Remains bedrock of US and European security W Europe helps US after 9/11 attack o New members added, former Soviet allies and even parts of former Soviet Union NATO Eastward Expansion 1990-2009 But the Russia Putin now sees the NATO expansion as a threat Applied Liberalism – Europe Applied Realism – Russia Europeans are IR Liberals Eastward expansion of European Union and NATO promises prosperity and democracy, and peace to the whole continent Post-Soviet Russia should rejoin Europe Therefore EU and NATO moving eastward toward Russia is good for Russia Post-soviet Russia should not regard EU, NATO as threatening Putin is a Realist in international relations EU and NATO expansion eastward puts mighty economic and military power on historical invasions path into Russia The security dilemma comes into play The west shouldn’t seek to intimidate Russia So Russia, in self-defense, pushes back Russia vs. West plays out in Ukraine Ukraine in the Middle Orange Revolution Kyiv, Ukraine 2004 Maidan Revolution Kyiv, Ukraine 2014 o Color revolution (Maidan) unseated pro-Russian president in Ukraine o New Ukrainian leaders are pro-West, want Ukraine to not join EU, NATO o Russia seized Crimea, supports separatists who seized parts of Donbas o West imposes economic sanctions against Russia Russia Seizes Ukrainian Territory: Crimean Peninsula and Donbas A New Security Dilemma in Europe o Russia feels threatened by EU and NATO eastward expansion, takes defensive action Russia seeks to prevent Ukraine from joining EU and NATO Russia seized Crimea out of dear it will fall into NATO hangs, become a NATO naval base o West perceives Russia defensive action as offensive action West beefs up NATO, imposes sanctions on Russia Russian Realist Perspective Accepts the Westphalia state system But Wants dominant influence over neighboring states Or wants neighboring states to be neutral, to not join rival blocs like EU or NATO Western Liberal perspective Post-Westphalia IR Liberal world order can bring peace, prosperity, security, to all th st Russia should stop playing by 19 century realist rules and should join European 21 century liberal order West uses economic pressure, not military confrontations, to change Russia’s mind Different Solutions to Ukrainian Crisis Russian Realist solutions: Preferred: Ukraine joins Russian-led Eurasian Union - Sphere of influence Fallback: Ukraine government pledges not to join EU or NATO, remains “neutral” – buffer state Western IR Liberal solution: Let Ukrainian people decide for themselves about NATO, EU What motivates Putin? And Now Syria If Russian actions in Ukraine are “defensive” Russian actions in Syria are “offensive” Projecting power out of own region into Middle East o US has been doing this for decades Larger active military force like US Why Russian Military intervention in Syrian Civil War? Prop up Assad government, long-time ally of Moscow since 1970s o Keep small Russian naval base in Syria Fight against ISIS which is destabilizing Middle East, bordering Russia Distract global attention away from Ukraine Declare Russia is back as major IR player Putin’s one-upsmanship against Obama? Russia in Syria: What can Go Wrong? Russia could get bogged down in Syria as it got bogged down in Afghanistan in 1980s o Russia’s “Vietnam?” Angers Sunni Muslims in Russia, 20% of population Intensifies jihadist tendencies among Arabs, fulfills “End of Days” Islamic prophecies Weakens diplomatic efforts to get rid of Assad as means of ending Syrian civil war Danger of inadvertent entanglement with US Air Force and Navy fighter planes against ISIS Infers Sunni Muslims POLS 1020 week 9 II Arab States in World Politics Geography and history of Arab states [will be on exam!] Getting it straight o “Arab” is a nationality o “Islam” or “Muslim” is a religion o (Almost) all Arabs are Muslims o Most Muslims are not Arabs o More than 20 states are Arab states o The Arab nation is divided into more than 20 Westphalia states Middle East History o Only three ancient states Egypt (majority Arab nationality)/Sunni Turkey (majority Turkish, minority Kurds) / Sunni Iran (majority Persian, minority Ajeri, Kurds) / Shia o Other Arab lands belonged to one or another empire, never independent entities o Arab Westphalian states were created by Western powers in 20 century o Many Arabs consider their states borders to be illegitimate o Result is Violence and Chaos with regional wars International significance of Arab states Energy, main source for world o [Middle East Oil Production exports through the Persian Gulf] Shipping lanes, connecting Asia with Europe Religion, long history of Islam – Christian relations, not always peaceful o [10% down to 5% Christians] Terrorism, not uniquely Arab but mainly so o [Christian Terrorism (KKK is one of the most successful terrorisms) and Islamic Terrorism] Emigration, out of Arab world into Europe Israel, existence of stand of Israel One thing most Arabs agree on: “Go to Hell Israel!” Search for basis of legitimate political order Westphalia state system imposed by West but didn’t take root Democracy tried and failed Pan-Arab nationalism, rose and fell Political Islam/Islamism, currently on the rise British and French were the ones who divided the Middle East, became all independents after WWII. Failure of Westphalia State system to take root in Middle East After the Arab Spring Rival Bases of Political Legitimacy o Westphalia State system o Political Islam Territorial Conquests of Political Islam o 1979 Islamic Republic of Iran o 1982 Hezbollah in southern Lebanon o 1989 – 2001 Taliban in Afghanistan, Pakistan o 2006 al Shabab, Somalia o 2007 Hamas in Gaza o 2010 Boko Haram in northern Nigeria o 2014 ISIS in Sunni Areas of Syria, Iraq The United States and the Arab World American Realism and American IR Liberalism in the Arab World o American Realism Energy supply for Europe, Japan, not so much for USA, and reduce reliance on Russia Shipping lanes, for US Navy and oil commerce Israel, a US ally, military cooperation, high tech Terrorism, no more repeats of 9/11 o American IR Liberalism o Israel, the holy land, Jewish and Christian Zionism o Humanitarian intervention to stop Syrian civil war American Arms in the Arab World o Not a successful history Taliban returning to Afghan Iraq now under Iranian influence Libya a new center of Islamic terrorism o American export of democracy has not produced peace o Should the US intervene forcefully against ISIS in Iraq and Syria? Russian-American Rivalry in Syria o Syrian civil war o Russia joins Iran, Iran and Hezbollah in supporting Assad regime vs terrorists o US and West have half-heartedly supported Islamic non-terrorists against ISIS and against Assad Putin says o Russia supports Assad government against terrorist o Russia joins Iran, Iraq and Hezbollah o Russia invites US to join with them o US is mistaken to seek to overthrow Assad o US has terrible track record of overthrowing Arab against Assad, against backfire to US BUT, Obama says o Russia is making big mistake, will get bogged down in Syria o Russia is on wrong side, supporting Assad gives jihadists more incentive to fight o Assad must go before there can be a Syrian peace settlement o ISIS – controlled territory is shrinking o US ground forces would be counter-productive POLS 1020 Week 10 Part I (Before Exam 2, included in Exam 2) International Women’s Day. Israeli – Palestinian Impasse Introduction to Israel – Palestine Impasses Two Peoples, One Land What were the Alternatives, 1948? o A bi-national state Two nations in one state Arab majority, 1200000 Jewish minority, 500000 o Two State solution /Partition o Jewish – majority state called State of Israel o Arab majority state called State of Palestine State of Israel exists o Prosperous and democratic o Jewish majority and Palestinian minority No State of Palestine o Israeli military occupation of Palestinian lands o Palestinian refugees in neighboring Arab states Involuntary Exchange of Population o Approx. 700000 Arab inhabitants of Palestine became refugees after the 1948 war, living in nearby Arab countries Their children and grandchildren inherit refugee status and are denied many rights and benefits by Arab governments o Approx. 700000 Jewish inhabitants of Arab countries were expelled during the 1950s and went to Israel o They became productive citizens of Israel A brief History of the Israel – Palestine Relationship o 1948 – 1987 Arab Three No’s: No negotiations, no recognitions, no peace Arabs attacked Israel several times; Israel won Israel conquered Palestinian territories o 1987 – 1991 Palestinian first intifada o 1991 – 2000 Oslo Peace Process o 2000 – 2005 Palestinian second intifada o 2005 – present Inconclusive wars and inconclusive wars and inconclusive negotiations Politics of the present day Impasse Moderates and Extremists Israeli moderates want a two-state solution with security guarantees for Israel Palestinian moderates want a two- state solution no Jewish settlements on the West Bank Israeli extremists want a greater state of Israel and no state of Palestine Palestinian extremists want a single States of Palestine and no State of Israel The Four-Partner Dance The Israeli moderates and the Palestinian moderates negotiate for peace The Israeli extremists try to torpedo negotiations by settlements and price tag attacks against Palestinians The Palestinian extremists try to torpedo negotiations by terror and violence against Israelis An Israel Security Dilemma o Fear that an independent Palestinian State would launch an attack against Israel from the West Bank o The Gaza / Hamas Example Israel voluntarily evacuated Gaza in 2005 Hamas won Palestinian legislative elections 2006 Hamas staged coup, took over Gaza 2007 Hamas launched missile attack against Israel 2008, 2012, 2014 Palestinian Security Dilemma o The Palestinian State will be demilitarized o If Palestinian extremists wage terror attacks against Israel, Israel will retaliate against the Palestinian state o Therefore the security of the Palestinian states depends upon the security of the State of Israel BDS, Goals of BDS with Israeli Dismantle Jewish settlements on the West Bank o Good idea but fear of Hamas takeover End Israeli economic boycott of Gaza o Would make it easier for Hamas to wage war against Israel Allow Palestinian refugees to return to Israel o Israel would then have a Palestinian majority Create one state of both Jews and Arabs o That is, bring the states of Israel to an end against the wishes of its inhabitants 1. BDS 1: Anti – West Bank a. Boycott Do not purchase goods and services made in the Israeli – occupied West bank b. Divest Do not incest in businesses that are connected with eh Israeli – occupied West Bank c. Sanction: Cut off tire with individuals and groups that are connected with eh Israeli occupied west bank 2. OR BDS 2: Anti-State of Israel? a. Boycott: Do not purchase goods and services made in the State of Israel and West Bank b. Divest: Do no invest in business that are connects with the state of Israel and the west bank c. Sanction: Cut off ties with individuals and groups that are connects with the State of Israel and the West Bank 3. OR BDS 3: Anti-Semitic? a. Boycott: Do not purchase goods and services made by Jews anywhere in the world b. Divest: Do not invest in business that are connected with the Jewish persons anywhere in the world c. Sanction: Cut off ties with individuals and groups that are made by Jews anywhere in the world Main question: Political Legitimacy? Apartheid by Race or Nationality? o South African Apartheid: separation on the basis of race Internationally regarded as illegitimate o Israel – Palestinians: separation on the basis of nationality Internationally recognized as legitimate The basis of the sovereign state system Role of the United States o US supports Israel’s right to exist o Liberal reasons for support Democratic state Economically and culturally part of West o Realist reasons for support o Projects US power in Middle East o US ally against Islamic terrorism o Division within the American Jewish Community o An Odd couple: American Evangelicals and the Israeli right wing o Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu Addresses Joint Session of Congress Role of International Actors The US European States Soviet Union/Russia – strongly anti-Israel Egypt, Jordan, Gulf States – made peace with Israel Iran – main Anti- Israel - The present Impasse Israel and PA agree on final goal o Create a state of Palestine o Recognize, live in peace with state of Israel o But deep suspicion on watch side of the other Hamas continues rejectionism o Supported by Iran, Arab jihadist o Extremists act up whenever peace appears be at hand
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