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by: Nick07

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Geography 3010 GEOG 3010

Nick07
Ohio

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Exam 3 Study Guide
COURSE
Meteorology
PROF.
Scott Reinemann
TYPE
Study Guide
PAGES
4
WORDS
CONCEPTS
Meteorology
KARMA
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1 review
"Can you just teach this course please? lol :)"
Andrew Kozey

Popular in Meteorology

This 4 page Study Guide was uploaded by Nick07 on Wednesday March 16, 2016. The Study Guide belongs to GEOG 3010 at Ohio University taught by Scott Reinemann in Spring 2016. Since its upload, it has received 29 views. For similar materials see Meteorology in Meteorology at Ohio University.

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Can you just teach this course please? lol :)

-Andrew Kozey

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Date Created: 03/16/16
April 4, 2016 Meteorology Weather Forecasting Exam 3 Study Guide - The Four Methods of Weather Forecasting 1. Persistence 2. Climatology 3. Analog 4. Numerical - Persistence o Tomorrows weather will be the same as todays weather o Can be useful for places with little day to day variation in weather o Poor for weather diverse locations - Climatology o Average conditions over a long period o Weather conditions will be similar to the long-term average o Only works when conditions are normal  Method fails if the patterns are unusual  Outliers ruin the average - Analog o Examines todays conditions o Find a day in the past with similar conditions o Future weather will behave the same as the weather in the past o Have to find a good match with similar conditions  Used by experienced forecasters because they have more relevant data at their disposal - Numerical o Given certain atmospheric conditions, predicts what future conditions will be based on the gas laws o Atmospheric models: Describes atmospheric change over time o Data assimilation: Integration of data into models o Outlooks: Probability of being above/near/below normal conditions *Weather predictions are always measured in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) - Measuring Systems o In-Situ and Remote  In-Situ actually physically collects data (Weather balloons)  Remote collects data from a distance or electronically (Satellites)  Measurements usually taken every hour. More frequent if a severe storm  Radar  Two rotations, ones density, the other velocity  Two modes : Clear Precipitation  Reflectivity: Base Composite Velocity: Multiple pulses are sent out, a pulse is compared to the difference the other neighboring pulses traveled. Doppler effect Storm Relative Velocity: Amount of rotation within the storm. Exact speed of movement. o Height Charts (Weather balloons)  Shows ridges and troughs  Motions of storm systems o Skew-T Diagrams  Plot of Radiosonde o Weather Models  Incorporate satellite observations  Applies data to a variety of equations to predict atmospheric outcomes  Different limitations for different outcomes on measurements  Underlying theory incomplete (doesn’t measure small enough)  Resolution inaccuracy will cause error (4km resolution) need (4mm-4,000km)  Chaos theory  Weather too scattered and random  Very little data over the oceans  We don’t have enough variables to be more accurate  Butterfly affect analogy applies  One decimal place difference in measurement, later on in the model that decimal place will vastly change the graph predictions  This is why data always needs to be updated and old data should be avoided. - Ensemble Forecasting o A way of forecasting to account for the uncertainty with observation o Models are run multiple times with different data to see the trend o All plotted together as spaghetti plots o When the same pattern is seen, people can be more confident with their predictions - Forecast Evaluation o Value – how useful is it to the public?  People’s daily lives can be determined be weather  Tornado watches  Rain/snow  You need to show numbers for accuracy and you need to show skill, such as historical knowledge of the area to better forecast the weather  Accuracy  12-24 hours is great  2-5 days is good  7+ days is inaccurate - Mid Latitude Cyclones o Primary weather producers in the mid latitudes o Large moving atmospheric vortices centered around low pressure o Lasts for a few days to a few weeks o Brings abrupt changes to the wind, temperature, and sky conditions Example: Warm calm one day // cold and windy the next - Extratropical Cyclones o Equalizes uneven temperature distribution o Mix warm tropical air masses with cold polar air masses (cold air south, warm air north) o Help maintain atmospheric heat balance o Primary causes of formation  East Rockies  Gulf of Mexico  East coast  Gulf of Alaska o Clouds and precipitation around the center and borders of the cold fronts o Include both warm (mT) and cold, cool air masses (cP, mP) - Long waves o Big, slow, standing waves (more global) - Short waves o Imbedded in long wave troughs, (deepen them) and ridges, (weaken them) o Few 100km wavelengths o Move faster than long waves *Troughs bring cold air down into the warm air - Development of a Cyclone o Upper level waves moving aloft through the atmosphere creates instability o Mid Latitude cyclone life cycle  Cyclogenesis  Surface frontal boundary between air masses of different characteristics  Upper level divergence  Confluence  Difluence  Mature Cyclone  Cold air masses equatorward around the left side of the system  Warm air moves poleward  Occlusion Cyclone  Cyclone dies down  Warm sector closes off  Surface temperature differences are minimized

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