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Date Created: 12/21/15
th GOLD TECHNICAL VIEW 09 September 2013 Gold prices in domestic futures tested historical highs in absolute as well as in percentage terms as MCX Gold rallied towards high 35074 per 10 gm s on 28th August 2013 which is almost Rs. 7000/10 gms or 25% higher than last month close of 28207/10 gmsThis rally was best at its monthly gain in ever MCX history of last 10 years and which recorded best gain after 2 years when in Augusts 2011, we had seen almost 22% rally when European financial crisis and US easy money policy w as seen. However against this Spot Gold rose only by $ 110 per troy Ounce or we can say a gain of only 8.50% return month on month. During the month of august alone, Indian Rupee depreciated by almost 13% which contributed a major gains in Indian gold prices. Also, continue tightening BY Indian Government to control gold imports played sentiment role to increase premium of domestic gold prices over an international market. In order to curb gold demand, Government hiked import duty on gold thrice in 2013 to 10%. Custom duty on gold dore bars, ore or concentrate increased to 8% from 6%.Indian Government took every possible step to curb gold demand. In its latest effort, The Forward Markets Commission (FMC), which regulates the commodity futures market, hiked initial margin to 5 percent f rom 4 percent earlier in buy side and also imposed an additional 5 percent margin on gold, silver and crude oil futures contract from 2nd September 2013.Still future for Gold prices looks bullish as Indian Rupee is still trading in weak trajectory. Growing speculation the US was moving closer to take military action against Syria’s government may continue to boost safe haven demand for the Gold. Meanwhile, uncertainty over the timing of a reduction in the Federal Reserve’s bond buying program continued after data showed that US economy grew more than expected in August. Gold's correction from $1434 continued last week and despite a brief breach of 1367.8 support, it quickly recovered. Further rise remains mildly in favor as rebound from 1179.4 could extend.But again, we'd be cautious on strong resistance from 1487.2 cluster resistance, 50% retracement of 1798.1 to 1179.4 at 1488.8, to bring reversal. Break of 1358.8 will turn outlook bearish for 1272.5 support. However, there is no sign of reversal yet as long as 1526.7 resistance holds. Gold should now be in a phase of range trading between 1179.6 and 1526.7 in medium term. Gold MCX October closed at Rs. 33015.During the month of August, due to currency, there was excessive volatility in the market. Gold MCX October opened at Rs. 28300 on 1/8/2013. It made a high of Rs. 35074 on 28/8/2013, with a remarkable lead of Rs. 6800, which is believed to have happened first time. On 26/8/2013, it made a low of Rs. 24830. Gold is trading Rs 2000 below the high it recorded in the month of August. Gold MCX is still trading at its all timIf we talk about its performance for last two months, Gold MCX has jumped nearly Rs. 10200 from its low. This was a never seen before kind of stuff. EXPECTED SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVEL (COMEX) Gold S1 S2 S3 S4 R1 R2 R3 R4 COMEX/DGCX ($) 1358 1272 1179.50 1038 1433.58 1487 1526 1576 Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations our opinion is, selling Gold in the ranges of 1415- 1425 targeting $1360/$1340 and stop loss above $1450 might be appropriate. EXPECTED SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVEL (MCX) Gold (Oct 2013) S1 S2 S3 S4 R1 R2 R3 R4 MCX 30400 28780 26570 24900 33185 35110 37200 39500 Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations our opinion is, selling Gold in the ranges of 34300- 34500 targeting 31500/30200 and stop loss above 35110 might be appropriate. Comex Gold Continuous Contract Weekly Chart MCX Gold Continuous Contract WeeklyChart
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