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Date Created: 12/21/15
WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM R W EE E K L Y P 05 AUG – 10 AUG 2013 O Blow by Blow R On T Bullions, Base metals, Energy… MAJOR EVENTS With the US Dollar gaining strength, the futures of gold on the Comex dropped by 1.93% and was seen trading at $1285.55 in December contract. Gold on the MCX for delivery on October was seen trading at Rs.27419/ ten grams, a loss of 1.82% as of 12.38 PM IST. The USDollar index gained 0.03% and was at 82.45 as of 12.39 PM IST. The weakness in Indian Rupee is capping the losses in the commodity to a major Comex, extent. The Indian Rupee was seen trading at 60.831, a gain of 0.265 or 0.44% as of 12.48 PM IST. The US Non farm pay rolls data scheduled this evening at 06:00 PM may turn out to be positive for Bullion commodities. US unemployment rate data is scheduled for 06.00 PM IST as well. The data is forecastar to give a reading of 7.5% for July. June data had said that US unemployment accelerated by 7.6%. The US Federal Reserve Quantitative Easing measures has beenimbs. tethered to job market recovery in US as well as to moderate inflation. A positive job data picture would make the US Federal Reserve taper on stimulus measures, markets believe. This can have detrimental effect on gold futures with risks skewed heavily to the downside. The trend in crude oil futures for August delivery on India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) looks sideways to bullish. Crude oil prices in the global market were seen trading positive on strong manufacturing data from Europe, the United States and China. Also, Middle East tensions, disruption to crude oil production in Africa and and maintenance activity in the North Sea were seen supporting the cruMCX Crude Oil to certain extent. Concerns over supply disruptions in Iraq, Libya and Nigeria were also supported the prices. sideways to Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) crude oil production averaged 30.25 mn barrels per day (bpd) in July, down from 30.38 mn bpd in June, as per a Reuters survey published on Wednesday. bullish on firm Meanwhile, The UK Markit/CIPS Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the global cues. construction sector offers new hope that the UK economy is improving. UK recorded a strongest construction output growth since June 2010, led by surge in housing activity. The trend in lead futures for August delivery on India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) is bullish and is expected to continuewith the trend for the day. MCX lead for August delivery was seen trading up by 1.33% at Rs.129.85 per kilogram as of 05.58 PM IST on Friday. MCX Lead, Nickel MCX nickel for August delivery was seen trading up by 0.70% at Rs.852 per kilogram as of 06.01 PM IST on Friday. US Census Bureau is scheduled to release its dabullish; USry orders at 07.30 PM IST today. MCX base metals were seen trading bullish on strong manufacturing data from Europe, the United States and China.In the United States, total non-farm payroll employment increased by 162,000 in July, and thenemployment unemployment rate edged down to 7.4 percent, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. Employment rose in retail trade, food services and drinking places, financial activities, and wholesale trade. Meanwhile, US personal income increased $45.4 billion, or 0.3 percent, and disposable. personal income (DPI) increased $33.6 billion, or 0.3 percent, in June, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Aug 05, 7:30pm 53.2 52.2 Aug 06, 6:00pm Trade Balance -43.1B -45.0B 7:30pm JOLTS Job Openings 3.83M 7:30pm IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 47.9 47.1 10:30pm FOMC Member Evans Speaks Aug 07, 8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 0.4M 10:30pm 10-y Bond Auction 2.67I2.6 Aug 08, 12:30am 10-y Bond Auction 15.3B 19.6B 6:00pm Unemployment Claims 336K 326K 8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 59B 10:30pm 30-y Bond Auction 3.66I2.3 Aug 09, 7:30pm Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.5% -0.5% G O L D T E C H N I C A L V I E W MCX GOLD showed bullish movements in first two trading session of last week and after that took correction on lower side and it also took resistance of 50% retracement but unable to close above it. Now, 27600 will act as strong support for it, closing below this it may drag to next support of 27000. On higher side if it sustains above 38.2% retracement then 28650 will act as important resistance. PIVOT TABLE S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLDis to sell1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 below 27350 for the target of 2670027385 26630 25710 28300 29010 29751 26500 with stop loss of 28200. S I L V E R T E C H N I C A L V I E W MCX SILVER on weekly charts made higher highs but unable to sustain on higher levels and also made bullish rising wedge pattern. According to daily chart 42600-43500 is seen as important resistance range sustaining above which it may result in bull rally. On lower side if it gives closing below lower band of wedge pattern then 40400 will act as major support. PIVOT TABLE S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this point of time is to sell below 40400 for S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 targets of 39500-39000, with stop los40440 39500 38500 42700 44250 45850 41600. C R U D E O I L T E C H N I C A L V I E W Crude oil last week found important support around 23.6% retracement i.e. 6170 and strong pullback carried it towards new life time high. On last trading session it made a reversal pattern due to US data. Now, if it take some correctionthen important support is seen around 6400. On higher side if it able to sustain above 6640 then new highs is expected. S T R A T E G Y PIVOT TABLE Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to buy above 6640 for the targets of 6800 wS1h S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 stop loss of 6470. 6400 6150 5940 6640 6750 6900 C O P P E R T E C H N I C A L V I E W MCX Copper last week broke trendline on daily charts and closed above it and also took important resistance i.e. 432.30. Now, if it maintain above 433 then 438 will act as important resistance for it. On other hand if it is not able to break the level of 433 then again bears may gain momentum and it may drag towards 420. PIVOT TABLE S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER will be sell on highs, with stop loss of 435 for the S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 targets of 420. 420 406.40 393.30 432.30 440 450 DISCLAIMER http://www.trifidresearch.com
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