Sustainable Energy & The Environment - Wintr 2010
Sustainable Energy & The Environment - Wintr 2010
Popular in Course
verified elite notetaker
Popular in Department
verified elite notetaker
This 251 page Reader was uploaded by Stephanie Miller on Tuesday February 4, 2014. The Reader belongs to a course at University of California Santa Barbara taught by a professor in Fall. Since its upload, it has received 345 views.
Reviews for Sustainable Energy & The Environment - Wintr 2010
Report this Material
What is Karma?
Karma is the currency of StudySoup.
Date Created: 02/04/14
ES 115 Energy and the Environment Winter 2012 Section Syllabus Teaching Assistants Quentin Gee Sarah Richman Jewel Snavely Geneva Travis Bren 4008 Bren 4008 Bren 4008 Bren 4008 Wed 1130a130p Mon 100p300p Mon 1100a100p Thurs 9301130 geeumailucsbedu smichee1019gmailcom jssnaveygmaicom gtravis00gmaicom Feel free to contact your TA with questions or concerns via email during office hours or beforeafter section In addition any student can utilize the office hours of any TA which should allow for greater flexibility with student schedules Section Learning Objectives Sections are an opportunity for students to engage the course content in a more active and dynamic environment With fewer students than lecture there is more room for student questions and student input Our primary role in section is to serve as discussion facilitators although at times we will work on homework answer questions that arise directly from lecture and the readings and provide some input on ideas for studying Section Requirements Attendance Students are required to show up on time to section with at least two questions from the readings andor lecture Students may miss one section without an absence penalty but each additional absence will result in a lowered attendance grade Participation Each student should contribute to discussion by either asking questions or providing commentaryfeedback to questions that other students or the TA raise Homework Homework must be turned in via hard copy on the due date assigned in lecture Late assignments will be reduced one level but will not be accepted past 2 days Group Presentation Students must sign up for one short group presentation to be given during section Topics will roughly correspond with course content of the given week We will hand out a signup sheet and provide more information on the group presentation in the second section Section Grade Section represents 40 of your final grade so it is very important Section grades will be determined by the following 40 Homework 20 Attendance 20 Participation 20 Group Presentation Test Challenges Students must wait at least 24 hours upon receipt of their graded midterm before speaking with or emailing their TA or Dr Manalis about the midterm If a student believes that a test question was unclear unfair or that his or her answer was at least partially acceptable the student may challenge the question The student must type a written response to each question stating 1 the question in its entirety 2 the correct answers 3 the student39s answer and 4 a defense of the student39s answer or critique of the question39s fairnessclarity Grading Rubric for Homework We grade each homework assignment based upon a general recognition ofthe pattern ofcontent throughout the assignment If a large majority of the assignment fits into the check x range then the student receives a and so on for other grades A is generally considered to be a good grade while a indicates work that needs improvement 0 Answers questions completely and 0 Answers questions nearly 0 concisely completely may ramble on points 0 Provides examples that are clear and that are less relevant or tie too many indicate engagement with the distinct ideas together o reading Occasionally creates 0 Provides examples that are relatively examples that the student thinks of concise but may be rushed and only or looks up as an application of the loosely related to the relevant o general principle or idea in articles examples may be pulled shown consideration directly from text showing less o 0 Gets all calculations correct correct engagement with the ideas at hand sentences units in answer clear setup and use 0 Gets most calculations correct but of appropriate formulas may forget to include appropriate or 0 Answers are written with good prose any units and style but not overly wordy 0 Answers may contain grammatical mistakes or have a clunky style Example Answer of a for a Written Question Answers questions with little or no explanation or elaboration on issues Assignment seems rushed If context or explanation is present there is a general misapplication of principles or examples Calculations are incorrect or no work Answers are not in complete Discuss Daniel Yergin s Prologue and Chapter Hydrocarbon Man from The Prize in terms of the following a What are the three great themes that underlie the story of oil in the 20 Century b Briefly explain each theme Yergin s three main themes as discussed in his book The Prize are the rise of capitalism and modern business the effect on global politics and power and what he terms hydrocarbon society Quick internet search for an example homework isn39t a research project so a rough citation of applicable facts is fine for us as your graders Capitalism Yergin points to the rapid rise of oil corporations as a key foundation of the world economy Ofthe top 20 of the Fortune 500 seven are oil companies with ExxonMobi taking in 383 billion in revenue and 30 billion in profits for 2010 Wikipedia Major changes in the economy such as inflation and recession are deeply affected by changes in the oil market In the 20th Century corporate investment in new technology and infrastructure resulted in methods of getting as much as possible out of a barrel of oil For E instance refiners were able to increase the yield of high value products such as gasoline and Example from the quotHydrocarbon Man chapter which shows comprehensive reading and contemplation of the text heating oil from 50 to 90 of each barrel 111 words Global Politics complete on your own as part of the H W Hydrocarbon society Yergin emphasizes the cultural impact of oil on America39s identity Suburban society is planned and built upon the assumption of the automobile as the major method oftransportation Plastic is the main substance of modernit Example from common knowledge no citation necessary for those civilization can literally be thought of as oi based I 39 an element of our culture that slogans such as dri baby drill d the rationales that underlie them even if not embraced by all of American Society are nevertheless understood by everyone 80 words Although length indicated by word count is NOT the only indicator of answer quality listing it here gives a rough idea of the level of word count that correlates with an excellent answer ES 115 Energy and the Environment Winter 2012 Syllabus When we try to pick out anything by itself we find it hitched to everything else in the Universe John Muir My First Summer in the Sierra Boston Houghton Mifflin 1911 Class Goals Students will learn that 1 The laws of thermodynamics are a central organizing principle for the ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE INDUSTRY AND THE OVERALL ECONOMY 2 The future belongs to those who can manipulate entropy Frederic Keffer Eric M Rogers Physics for the Inquiring Mind Princeton University Press 1960 p 395 3 Energy and entropy provide an integrative capability for addressing environmental problems 4 Energy production distribution and use are a major contributor to social injustices that are prevalent in today39s societies Lectures MWF 300350 AM BUCH 1910 Attendance is required tardiness will be noted Instructor Mel Manalis Office hours Wed 10301150AM Bren Hall 4005 or after class or by appointment Teaching Assistants Gee Quentin geeumailucsbedu Richman Sarah smichee1019gmailcom Snavely Jewel jssnaveygmailcom Travis Geneva gtravis00gmailcom Required Readings Assignments will be made on Mondays Problem Sets Exams Grade Web Lec Week 1 1 Jan Week 2 Jan 1 ES 115 Workbook Grafikart 6550 Pardall Rd IV 9683575 2 Sustainable Energy without hot air David MacKay wwwwithouthotaircom download at no cost CoaIA Human History Barbara Freese UCSB Bookstore 4 Beyond Smoke and Mirrors Burton Richter UCSB Bookstore or Amazoncom 4 ES 115 Supplemental Readings Gauchospace 9 Located in ES115 Workbook assigned in class Will cover lectures required readings and problem sets First Midterm Exam Friday Feb 10 Section see section syllabus 40 First Midterm exam 30 Second Midterm exam 100 Unit Conversion wwwdigitaIdutchcomunitconverter ES 115 Winter 2012 Tentative Schedule MWF 300PM BUCH 1910 Date Title 9 Introduction Why Study Energy amp Video Shift Happens 11 Energyamp Significance of the Human Development Index HDI 13 Video TED Talk Bill Gates talks about Terrapower 16 Martin Luther King Jr Holiday 4 18 5 20 Lec Date VVeek3 6 Jan 23 7 25 8 27 VVeek4 9 Jan 30 10 Feb 1 11 3 VVeek5 12 Feb 6 13 8 14 10 VVeek6 15 Feb 13 16 15 17 17 VVeek7 18 Feb 20 19 22 20 24 VVeek8 2O Feb 27 21 Feb 29 22 Mar 2 VVeek9 Power Time Spreng Triangle amp Ragone Plots Simple Energy Balance Environmental Implications ES 115 Winter 2012 Tentative Schedule MWF 300PM BUCH 1910 Title The Impact of CO2 Energy Policy Energy Waste amp 2 Law of Thermodynamics Entropy and Exergy The Nature amp Significance of Heat Engines Heat Engines amp Their Systems FueceHs Space Heating amp Cooling Using Heat Pumps Calculating the 2 Law Efficiency Summary amp review Midterm Exam Ethics and values of energy development Film Modern Marvels Power Plants Conventional Sources of Oil Presidents Day Holiday How long will fossils fuels last Coal Energy Bridges Electricity and Oil Use in Transportation Natural Gas amp the Emergence of LNG amp Marcellus shale Extreme Energy NonConventional Oil amp Gas Sources 23 24 25 Mar Week 10 26 27 28 Mar LDlU39 14 16 Environmental Strengths amp Weaknesses of Nuclear Energy Basic Nuclear Processes Nuclear Reactors and Their Future Film High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactors Summary amp Review Conclusion ES 115 Energy and the Environment Winter 2012 Syllabus When we try to pick out anything by itself we find it hitched to everything else in the Universe John Muir My First Summer in the Sierra Boston Houghton Mifflin 1911 Class Goals Students will learn that 1 The laws of thermodynamics are a central organizing principle for the ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE INDUSTRY AND THE OVERALL ECONOMY 2 The future belongs to those who can manipulate entropy Frederic Keffer Eric M Rogers Physics for the Inquiring Mind Princeton University Press 1960 p 395 3 Energy and entropy provide an integrative capability for addressing environmental problems 4 Energy production distribution and use are a major contributor to social injustices that are prevalent in today39s societies Lectures MWF 300350 AM BUCH 1910 Attendance is required tardiness will be noted Instructor Mel Manalis Office hours Wed 10301150AM Bren Hall 4005 or after class or by appointment Teaching Assistants Gee Quentin geeumailucsbedu Richman Sarah smichee1019gmailcom Snavely Jewel jssnaveygmailcom Travis Geneva gtravis00gmailcom Required Readings Assignments will be made on Mondays Problem Sets Exams Grade Web Lec Week 1 1 Jan Week 2 Jan 1 ES 115 Workbook Grafikart 6550 Pardall Rd IV 9683575 2 Sustainable Energy without hot air David MacKay wwwwithouthotaircom download at no cost CoaIA Human History Barbara Freese UCSB Bookstore 4 Beyond Smoke and Mirrors Burton Richter UCSB Bookstore or Amazoncom 4 ES 115 Supplemental Readings Gauchospace 9 Located in ES115 Workbook assigned in class Will cover lectures required readings and problem sets First Midterm Exam Friday Feb 10 Section see section syllabus 40 First Midterm exam 30 Second Midterm exam 100 Unit Conversion wwwdigitaIdutchcomunitconverter ES 115 Winter 2012 Tentative Schedule MWF 300PM BUCH 1910 Date Title 9 Introduction Why Study Energy amp Video Shift Happens 11 Energyamp Significance of the Human Development Index HDI 13 Video TED Talk Bill Gates talks about Terrapower 16 Martin Luther King Jr Holiday 4 18 5 20 Lec Date VVeek3 6 Jan 23 7 25 8 27 VVeek4 9 Jan 30 10 Feb 1 11 3 VVeek5 12 Feb 6 13 8 14 10 VVeek6 15 Feb 13 16 15 17 17 VVeek7 18 Feb 20 19 22 20 24 VVeek8 2O Feb 27 21 Feb 29 22 Mar 2 VVeek9 Power Time Spreng Triangle amp Ragone Plots Simple Energy Balance Environmental Implications ES 115 Winter 2012 Tentative Schedule MWF 300PM BUCH 1910 Title The Impact of CO2 Energy Policy Energy Waste amp 2 Law of Thermodynamics Entropy and Exergy The Nature amp Significance of Heat Engines Heat Engines amp Their Systems FueceHs Space Heating amp Cooling Using Heat Pumps Calculating the 2 Law Efficiency Summary amp review Midterm Exam Ethics and values of energy development Film Modern Marvels Power Plants Conventional Sources of Oil Presidents Day Holiday How long will fossils fuels last Coal Energy Bridges Electricity and Oil Use in Transportation Natural Gas amp the Emergence of LNG amp Marcellus shale Extreme Energy NonConventional Oil amp Gas Sources 23 24 25 Mar Week 10 26 27 28 Mar LDlU39 14 16 Environmental Strengths amp Weaknesses of Nuclear Energy Basic Nuclear Processes Nuclear Reactors and Their Future Film High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactors Summary amp Review Conclusion Homework Questions 1 Define energy 2 Define base loading and peak loading 3 Give the most general definition of the term energy intensity ie energy per unit of what 4 What is a hybrid energy unit Give two examples 5 What is a Btu State both what it is and the energy it represents in physical terms 6 Assume that the numbers in the following statement are correct A population of 11 billion with an average per capita energy use of 60 kW would use 66 TW or about ve times as much as it presently used Correct any errors that may be present in the preceding statement in quotes 7 List the appropriate prefixes for the following powers of 10 103 106 109 1012 1015 1018 8 Author Harold M Hubbard in his article The Real Cost of Energy Gauchospace discusses many hidden costs of energy a List and describe three types of costs b According to Hubbard which hidden cost has the highest cost estimate 9 Explain the three methods used to calculate the environmental extemal costs of energy control costs damage costs and contingent evaluation 10 Refer to Smil s discussion Energy and War and write a brief summary of the energy connections to war or violent con icts 11 What is meant by energy security 12 Discuss Daniel Yergin s Prologue and Chapter Hydrocarbon Man from The Prize in terms of the following a What are the three great themes that underlie the story of oil in the 20th century b Brie y explain each theme 13 What project was Eisenhower describing when he claimed it would use enough concrete to create six sidewalks to the moon Discuss what created the need for such a project and how this was representative of the economic changes that the US went through as a result of oil use Hint refer to the Chapter Hydrocarbon Man Yergin from The Prize 14 When one speaks of energy consumption what is a more appropriate word that should be used in its place that is compatible with the first law of thermodynamics 15 How many kilowatthours are there in 7200 exajoules 16 How many exawatts EW are there in a billion terawatts TW 17 Your electric bill says you used 100 kWhrs last month a Express this in MJ b Express this in MBtu 1 Btu 1055 kJ 18 Suppose that the maximum incident solar radiation at the earth s equator is 1370 Wm2 If one were able to harness all of the energy incident on 1 square meter how many hours of peak solar energy would it take to generate energy equivalent to that contained in 1 barrel of oil Note 1bbl 61 GI 19 When at rest your baseline power consumption is about 100 W a How many Joules do you burn over the course of one day while at rest Express your answer in MJ b Assume you ride a bike for 30 minutes per day requiring 50 W of additional power output How much additional energy does this require above and beyond your baseline metabolic requirement c Determine how many candy bars you must eat to supply this amount of energy Assume that a 2 oz candy bar contains 273 Calories according to httpwwwcaloriecountcom Hints remember the difference between a food Calorie and a standard calorie and a useful site is httpwwwdigitaldutchcomunitconverter 20 Define the solar constant using words only What is it numerically 21 Refer to both lecture and the article Thermoclines A Solar Thermal Energy Resource for Enhanced Hydroelectric Power Production to answer the following a What is thermocline energy b How can it be used c What are its possible major environmental impacts if it is utilized at an existing hydroelectric dam site 22 The temperature of the water at the bottom of Niagara Falls is 18 C warmer than the water at the top of the falls What principle requires this result Why 23 Discuss the earth s energy balance in terms of the following a What fundamental law of physical science forms the basis of this balance b Write the major terms of this balance both numerically as an equation and descriptively as what each variable and each term means c What are the units associated with each variable and with each term 24 It is reasonable to expect the supply of energy to continue increasing forever This quote was taken from Julian Simon s article Energy Supply Scaremongers If the energy supply comes from sources other than solar energy what physical limit to ever increasing energy supply exists 25 Carefully read the Introductory overview from Boyle et al beginning of Chapter II and summarize what the authors are saying about sustainability According to the authors what will be necessary for creating a sustainable future for humanity 26 If a 1 kg water balloon were to fall from the top of Bren Hall 50m how fast would it be traveling the instant before it strikes the unsuspecting student below Assume no losses due to friction hint use the First Law 27 A pile driver of the type shown in the figure to the right I 0 00 k drops a mass of 1000 kg from rest The mass falls through a 9 t distance of 5 m before striking the pile T A a What is the kinetic energy of the driver just before it 5 hits W b What observational data would you need in order to L determine how much force is exerted on the pile as it is driven in by the impact of the driver I A I 28 Take the earth s radius to be 6400 km and calculate the amount of energy in zettajoules from the sun that the earth intercepts in one year 29 Assume the sensitivity relation between the earth s average temperature and the amount of reradiated heat is given by AT 1 AR T 4 R a If for some particular reason the amount of heat the earth reradiates increases by 2 what would be the corresponding percent increase in temperature b Assuming an initial surface temperature of 288 K what would be the temperature change in degrees K for your answer to part a c If the albedo rises to 40 while the terrestrial power input and the atmospheric emissivity are held constant what will be the effect on the average temperature of the earth CAT2 gTH f 30 Given the equation hm a What is hm called b What does hm mean 31 How many kilowatthours does it take to carry a bucket of water to the top of Mount Everest Assume the bucket has a mass of 10 kg and that the acceleration of gravity is constant at 10 msec2 a Calculate the gravitational potential energy of the bucket at 8000 m above sea level Express your answer in joules b Assume that your lifting process is 100 efficient the energy you must expend is equal to the gravitational potential energy of the bucket as calculated above Convert your answer above to kWh of energy expended by using the definition of power hint what is a Watt c Annual per capita electricity use in the United States is 12000 kWh Comment on the relative magnitude of this figure compared to the work to lift 10 kg to the top of Mt Everest 32 During lecture energy waste was divided into two major general categories What are these two categories 33 Explain in a few words why a perfect heat engine and a perfect heat pump cannot exist 34 What is pumphydro storage 35 What is meant by the term virtual utilities Give an example See pg III46 37 Define the following terms a Micropower b Distributed generation c Huband spoke hierarchy 38 What does it mean to leapfrog the hub and spoke grids 39 Define the following terms a Climate forcing provide its units b GWP 40 Consider the chapter from the book The Virtue of Waste Huber and Mills Describe what the authors of this article mean by the following a Pyramid of energy b Virtuous waste c Shedding entropy 41 In order to familiarize yourself with micropower take a field trip to the micropower installation at the old swimming pool on the south side on campus What is the purpose of the installation Record the capacity number of kWh of electricity being produced and any other information displayed at the site 42 There are 12 questions contained in the article Climate Change Science An Analysis of Some Key Questions See pg II58 Using your own words provide answers to questions 3 4 8 9 12 One of these questions will appear on the midterm exam 43 An engineer suggests building an ocean thermal energy conversion OTEC plant off the coast of Hawaii where the steep offshore terrain provides access to cool deep ocean water with minimal transport distance This plant would rely on the temperature difference between the hot surface water and the cool deep water to drive a heat engine The engineer states that the surface water temperature is 24 C at the chosen location while the deep water temperature is 7 C a Calculate the theoretical maximum efficiency that could be obtained from an engine working between these two temperatures ie the Carnot efficiency Use the formula for Camot efficiency from Debunking a dynamo in your reader See pg 11121 b If in reality the plant will have a Carnot efficiency fraction f of 045 see the McNichols et al thermocline article for definition of f what will the actual operating efficiency be See pg 1143 44 Mr Noitall is ecstatic because he just purchased a gas furnace with a first law efficiency of 100 a Use words to define the first law efficiency b Use words to define the second law efficiency c What is an approximate value for the second law efficiency of the gas fumace Assume that the temperature outside of his house is 10 C and he wants his house to be 25 C inside hint don t forget about Kelvin 45 Define second law efficiency Why is it useful What does it mean when the second law efficiency is low on the order of 5 to 8 46 State Camot s law 47 What is entropy bookkeeping Why is it useful 48 What is the major environmental significance of the Carnot engine 49 Answer the following questions refer to 11148 to 11159 and MacKay Chapter 21 a What is a heat pump b List the two major advantages of heat pumps c Define the Coefficient of Performance for a heat pump d How can heat pumps help alleviate environmental impacts due to energy production and use e Draw an illustration of a heat pump clearly labeling heat reservoirs and energy ows Hint Be sure your illustration obeys the laws of thermodynamics f Define the Balance Point of a heat pump 50 From an environmental point of view the second law efficiency is much more significant than the first law efficiency Why 51 Give an example of a perpetual motion machine of the second kind Explain why it is a perpetual motion machine of the second kind 52 Referring to Reynolds Energy From Nature to Man write down the equations that represent the first and second laws of thermodynamics in the derivation of the Carnot efficiency shown below Also write down what each variable represents and its correct physical units Heat Engines Thermal Efficiency for a Carnot Engine W In general the thermal efficiency 7 for a heat engine is 77 E Eq 323 Using the 1 Law QH W QL Eq 322 Entropy bookkeeping SH 7Q and SL 70 Eq 316 aampb And the 2nd Law Spmduced SL SH 31 g 0 Eq 318 19 Camot efficiency ncamot i 1 7 where AT TH TL Eq 324 53 The four types of coal are Anthracite Bituminous Subbituminous and Lignite a Which type has the highest sulfur content and a high heat content Which type has the lowest heat content b Which is the best type of coal from an environmental perspective 54 Name one environmental benefit of coal gasification 55 Answer the following a What is methane hydrate b Where is it found 56 What is the Marchetti HC curve and its environmental significance 57 Define integrated resource planning 58 What is meant by the terms clathrate and coal by wire 59 Brie y summarize the major points of the following articles all on Gaucho Space Mining for Oil and Oil Production in the 21 Century The article Oil Production in the 21 Century discusses four major technological advances in oil production describe these four tech advances 60 The following questions are from the article The End of Cheap Oil by Campbell see Gaucho Space a Campbell states that there are three vital numbers needed to project future oil production List and describe these numbers b Why does Campbell state that the only correct way to total up reserve numbers is to add the mean or average estimates of oil in each field This mean estimate if often referred to as proved and probable or PS0 61 Answer the following questions regarding exponential growth as it is discussed in Bartlett s article Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crisis a Draw a diagram showing production curves for exponential growth without scarcity exponential growth with scarcity and sustainable production What does the area under the scarcity curve equal What does the area under the exponential curve equal Which curve represents solar energy production Which one represents coal production Which one represents American farming production 1quot P09 62 List four advantages of the uidized bed combustion over traditional coal buming in power plants 63 Read the chapter from Making Technology Work on natural gas Chapter 10 reprinted in reader chapter IV5 8 and list and describe four advantages of natural gas 64 Refer to Making Technology Work on safety and risk Chapter 11 reprinted in reader page IV65 and summarize the discussion on the safety and risk of LNG industry 65 Refer to Huber s WSJ article commenting on the energy aspects of President Bush s State of the Union address to Congress Describe the three bridges that Huber uses as a metaphor What is the metaphorical function of these bridges page Vl 10 66 Draw an illustration of the McKelvey Box What are the two criteria that govem where any particular portion of a given resource lies on the McKelvey Box Distinguish between reserves and resource see page IV 62 67 ANWR Internet Assignment Visit the following websites andor do an internet search for ANWR and answer the following questions httpwwwanwrorg httpwwwanwrcom httpwwwsierracluborgwildlandsartic httparticfws gov a Discuss the pros and cons on drilling for oil in ANWR b Are you for or against drilling ANWR Support your answer with facts from the websites c How do the websites content differ Do the agendas of the site host come through 68 Some oil industry reports state that 1020 gigabarrels of oil Gbbl are the proven reserves at the beginning of 1998 These reports state that at the current global production rate of oil at 236 Gbbl a year crude oil could remain plentiful and cheap for 43 years and probably longer because official charts show reserves growing Write down the formula that was used to calculate this 43 year number What is this number called 69 According to the discussion in class what is the most significant environmental impact of nuclear energy 70 List and describe the functions of the 5 parts of a lightwater reactor 71 What is a nuclear reactor moderator and why is it needed 72 Answer the following a What is a negative reactor coefficient b What is the environmental significance of the negative power coefficient for light water reactors 73 What is the fissile nuclei resulting from breeding Thorium 74 Answer the following a Assume the control rods are inserted into the reactor so that the fission process stops Now what is the capacity of the reactor to produce heat b What is the mechanism that produces this heat and how does it work 75 Answer the following a Using words define fuel utilization efficiency FUE for a nuclear reactor b What is the FUE for American light water reactors c What is the FUE for breeder reactors d Describe the isotope processing that accounts for the difference 76 Answer the following a Why do reactor cores melt if the control rods are fully inserted into the reactor core and the power is shut off b Explain why the designers of the Gas TurbineModular Helium Reactor GTMHR claim that the reactor core cannot melt c What moderator does the GTMHR reactor use Questions 7783 pertain to Bill Gate s TED Terrapower Talk httpwwwtedcomtalksbillgateshtml 77 In Bill Gate s TED talk about the world s energy future he uses the equation below What is Bill Gate s vision for the global carbon emissions CO2E1issi0nS from energy production CO2Emissions b Where P Population E Energy per service C CO2 per unit energy S Services per person Annual amount of CO2 is given in units of giga tonnesyear 78 What does Bill Gates mean when he says we need energy miracles Explain the five energy miracles that can achieve his objective 79 List the four major entities we need to do to achieve Bill Gates One Wish 80 Does the Terra Power reactor use fusion or fission Explain the chain reaction of this burning wave reactor Where does the energy come from 81 What is the primary fuel for the Terra Power reactor Where does it come from and why is this important 82 Is the Terra Power primary fuel fertile or fissile 83 Is Terra Power a breeder or burner reactor Does the reactor need to be refueled The following questions 8485 pertain to the DVD Modern Marvels Power Plants 84 Answer the following a Who was the major promoter of direct current electricity b Who was the major promoter of altemating current electricity c Who won this battle of the currents 85 Answer the following a What was the fundamental purpose of the Tennessee Valley Authority TVA b What was its first main power source c What power source did TVA eventually move to Questions 8689 pertain to Burton Richter s book Beyond Smoke and Mirrors chapters 16 17 86 Describe the two systems of Cap and Trade and Emissions Fees What are the pros and cons of each Which does Richter prefer and why 87 What is a Renewable Portfolio Standard RPS Describe Richter s concems with RPS s 88 What reasons were cited for the United States refusing to sign the Kyoto protocol When does Kyoto1 expire 89 Make a brief internet or Wikipedia search on the next steps past Kyoto1 COP17 Durban Has the intemational community come to any new agreements If so what are the limitations Do you think that Richter would be happy with what has happened ES 115 Energy and the Environment Winter 2012 Section Syllabus Teaching Assistants Quentin Gee Sarah Richman Jewel Snavely Geneva Travis Bren 4008 Bren 4008 Bren 4008 Bren 4008 Wed 1130a130p Mon 100p300p Mon 1100a100p Thurs 9301130 geeumailucsbedu smichee1019gmailcom jssnaveygmaicom gtravis00gmaicom Feel free to contact your TA with questions or concerns via email during office hours or beforeafter section In addition any student can utilize the office hours of any TA which should allow for greater flexibility with student schedules Section Learning Objectives Sections are an opportunity for students to engage the course content in a more active and dynamic environment With fewer students than lecture there is more room for student questions and student input Our primary role in section is to serve as discussion facilitators although at times we will work on homework answer questions that arise directly from lecture and the readings and provide some input on ideas for studying Section Requirements Attendance Students are required to show up on time to section with at least two questions from the readings andor lecture Students may miss one section without an absence penalty but each additional absence will result in a lowered attendance grade Participation Each student should contribute to discussion by either asking questions or providing commentaryfeedback to questions that other students or the TA raise Homework Homework must be turned in via hard copy on the due date assigned in lecture Late assignments will be reduced one level but will not be accepted past 2 days Group Presentation Students must sign up for one short group presentation to be given during section Topics will roughly correspond with course content of the given week We will hand out a signup sheet and provide more information on the group presentation in the second section Section Grade Section represents 40 of your final grade so it is very important Section grades will be determined by the following 40 Homework 20 Attendance 20 Participation 20 Group Presentation Test Challenges Students must wait at least 24 hours upon receipt of their graded midterm before speaking with or emailing their TA or Dr Manalis about the midterm If a student believes that a test question was unclear unfair or that his or her answer was at least partially acceptable the student may challenge the question The student must type a written response to each question stating 1 the question in its entirety 2 the correct answers 3 the student39s answer and 4 a defense of the student39s answer or critique of the question39s fairnessclarity Grading Rubric for Homework We grade each homework assignment based upon a general recognition ofthe pattern ofcontent throughout the assignment If a large majority of the assignment fits into the check x range then the student receives a and so on for other grades A is generally considered to be a good grade while a indicates work that needs improvement 0 Answers questions completely and 0 Answers questions nearly 0 concisely completely may ramble on points 0 Provides examples that are clear and that are less relevant or tie too many indicate engagement with the distinct ideas together o reading Occasionally creates 0 Provides examples that are relatively examples that the student thinks of concise but may be rushed and only or looks up as an application of the loosely related to the relevant o general principle or idea in articles examples may be pulled shown consideration directly from text showing less o 0 Gets all calculations correct correct engagement with the ideas at hand sentences units in answer clear setup and use 0 Gets most calculations correct but of appropriate formulas may forget to include appropriate or 0 Answers are written with good prose any units and style but not overly wordy 0 Answers may contain grammatical mistakes or have a clunky style Example Answer of a for a Written Question Answers questions with little or no explanation or elaboration on issues Assignment seems rushed If context or explanation is present there is a general misapplication of principles or examples Calculations are incorrect or no work Answers are not in complete Discuss Daniel Yergin s Prologue and Chapter Hydrocarbon Man from The Prize in terms of the following a What are the three great themes that underlie the story of oil in the 20 Century b Briefly explain each theme Yergin s three main themes as discussed in his book The Prize are the rise of capitalism and modern business the effect on global politics and power and what he terms hydrocarbon society Quick internet search for an example homework isn39t a research project so a rough citation of applicable facts is fine for us as your graders Capitalism Yergin points to the rapid rise of oil corporations as a key foundation of the world economy Ofthe top 20 of the Fortune 500 seven are oil companies with ExxonMobi taking in 383 billion in revenue and 30 billion in profits for 2010 Wikipedia Major changes in the economy such as inflation and recession are deeply affected by changes in the oil market In the 20th Century corporate investment in new technology and infrastructure resulted in methods of getting as much as possible out of a barrel of oil For E instance refiners were able to increase the yield of high value products such as gasoline and Example from the quotHydrocarbon Man chapter which shows comprehensive reading and contemplation of the text heating oil from 50 to 90 of each barrel 111 words Global Politics complete on your own as part of the H W Hydrocarbon society Yergin emphasizes the cultural impact of oil on America39s identity Suburban society is planned and built upon the assumption of the automobile as the major method oftransportation Plastic is the main substance of modernit Example from common knowledge no citation necessary for those civilization can literally be thought of as oi based I 39 an element of our culture that slogans such as dri baby drill d the rationales that underlie them even if not embraced by all of American Society are nevertheless understood by everyone 80 words Although length indicated by word count is NOT the only indicator of answer quality listing it here gives a rough idea of the level of word count that correlates with an excellent answer Midterm Study sheet Power Ioules wattssecond Energy Watts Wattshours E PT Albedo 30 of sun energy bounces right back alpha Simple earth energy balance SC M alphaSC 4CgammaTquot4 4CGammaTquot4 waste heat 70 Increase by Cloud seeding Stratospheric aerosols Engineered particles Surface albedo Inputs Solar Electromagnetic Radiation visble light Tides human contribution geothermal Outputs Re ectivity albedo Infrared radiation Gamma How much energy the earth emits back into space per unit time Wold Averages HDI 075 Health Wealth Education Per capita electricity consumption 2200 kWhpy 1290 in US kWhpy Per Capita C02 eq production 5 tones C02eqpy 30 giga tones of C02 added to atmosphere annually 15 giga tonnes stay in the atmosphere 8 goes into oceans 7 biosphere H20 C02 Carbonic acid HC02 Acidifying the ocean 01pH unit decline since 1750 potential Mgh 12mvquot2 kinetic Power required to power all of human energy 500 E 10quot18 approx quad Work can be converted to valued energy high efficiency W F x D Calorie C how much energy it take to heat 1kg of water 1 Kelvin btu British Thermal Unit amount of energy required to raise 1 pound of water 1 degree Fahrenheit Bill Gates TED 4 major entities More money for RampD Better Market incentive Rational Regulatory Framework Entrepreneurial Opportunity Miracles Solar thermal Solar PV Carbon capture and storage Wind CO2 people services per person efficiency amount of CO2 per service People increases Services increases CO2 per service efficiency can be manipulated He supports TeraPower which works with nuclear fusion Increase efficiency decrease C02 3 Components of the Energy Problem a Climate Change bEnergy Poverty c Security of energy supply Requirements in procurement of energy Energy in Developing World transitioning to using solar panels in African huts no business model hard distribution Affected areas of sea level rise Africa Indonesia affect whole world poor nations can39t deal with the rise Global Warming Potential CO2 1 GWP CH4 23 GWP CFC 6500 GWP Positive Feedback loop More heat ice packs melt more methane released from earth More heat more water in atmosphere more heat in return and re ection Factors extraction processing construction speed of implementation restoration decommission waste display Climate Forcing imposed perturbation of earth39s energy balance Measured in watts per square meter Levels of forcing CO2 13 CH4 05 Tropospheric ozone 03 Ragone Plot Shows energy density storage and power handling capacity of some alternative storage techniques Spreng Triangle EnergyInformation Time The temp would be 19 if there was no atmosphere Putting white roofs on 80 of the countries homes would save 62 million metric tons or 12 million cars off the road External costs Environmental degradation Government subsidies and taxes Health Care costs 3 Truths about climate change Greenhouse are being released at a rapid rate CO2 Gases capture infrared energy changes energy balance absorb heat energy Impose change in energy balance leads to effects Mechanical Energy PE KE Thermal Energy MCdeltaT M mass of water Mechanical equivalent of heat MEH 4186 oules one calorie Climate Forcing anything that imposes change on earths energy wmquot2 Anthropogenic Gases Ozone CFCs Nitrous Oxide Kind Men Give two pretty Emus Giga tera peta exa Conditions for Intentional Climate Change ICC Permissible if 1 The project is technically feasible 2 Consequences can be predicted 3 Would produce socio economically preferable alternative to today 4 Implementing the project would not seriously and systematically violate important well founded ethical principles ES 155 Final Review Session Entropy is A measure of mixed upness Heattemperature A system phenomenon The negative log probability Know different percentages of Energy use natural gas nuclear 2nd law tolls engineering imperfections Heat engine delta T Th 2 types of waste f 1 in Carnot engine perfect conservation of energy f 01 in real engine Heat Pump Th delta T Exergy has ZERO entropy first 3 on the list no entropy at all Electricity has zero entropy exergy Work has zero entropy Heat Engine Th hot temperature reservoir T1 low temperature Qh Heat energy input Qh turn into W work and Qlwaste heat to the environment QhQl W 1st law of thermodynamics real vs ideal heat engines Entropy disorder Energy heattemperature Ideal entropy not created or destroyed Real Entropy created also less works as a result more Q1 and more Sl due to Engineering imperfections SL created entropy Perfect Th converted directly to work with no entropy can t happen because Qh is an input and has entropy so entropy would be destroyed Thermocline Energy Still not clear on this the damn and the head and the thermal energy The first model doesn39t consider 2nd law of efficiency or engineer imperfections C specific heat Combined Cycle Heat Engine 35 efficiency add on steam turbine and get steam efficiency Nelly the heat engine Power 100 watts Convert power to energy EPT 100 s x 229 sec 100s x 229 sec 22 900 I Qh W 150 First Law efficiency output vs input N energy delivered by a system energy supplied to the system N gt 1 is called Coefficient of Performance COP ONLY FOR A HEAT PUMP device oriented Emphasis on quality Heat Pump With a lower temperature you have more entropy Entropy is the relationship between energy and temperature Energytemperature Always convert to Kelvin COP ideal THdelta T normally around 36 COP Electric furnace is really inefficient Heat pumps can get the warmer air from ground source sewage and out door heat hump Second Law Efficiency What would be the most energy efficient way of doing what we are doing today E required minimum exergy actual exergy supplied Or COP realCOP ideal r 1 Law EffCOP ideal need a task to measure task oriented 0ltElt1 Maximizing E is equivalent to minimizing fuel consumption Low values of E indicate room for improvement of matching energy source to end use Power Plant outside of Denmark Ash to pave road sulfur to make gypsum heat used to heat homes increases efficiency of coal and other power plants Hybrid Cars Don39t have stand by loses like combustion engine and has regenerative breaking All cars have losses hybrid has less Lesson Combined heat power increases efficiency in any industry Rate of Production and Bartlett39s paper Scenario A Exponential growth until a sudden crash no scarcity awareness finite supply ex trees nothing technically preventing us from doing this resource limited Scenario B Solar power rate limited Scenario C Any fossil fuel or American farm production resource limited Te expiration time for A Peak oil At a growth rate of 7 per year usage there would be 340 years of usage Energy source distribution 45 Coal 23 Natural Gas 20 Nuclear 10 Renewable 1Petroleum US 20M bblday world 73 M bblday Carbon Dioxide emissions Coal 81 also dangerous Comparing Saudi Arabia and Canada close in fossis fuel production Canada oil coming from tar sands bitumen energy intensive lots of emissions Projection of Natural gas supply Triple Shale gas supply Conventional gas decrease Marcellus shale in north east US and South as well Negative temperature coefficient Fission Moderator In a nuclear reactor water is the moderator slows neutrons down because if they go too fast it will mess up the reaction If it gets too hot the water is less useful as a moderatorcan t get a run away chain reaction Can get an explosion with hydrogen leaking in different heat compartments Prevents you from getting a nuclear exposure does not handle decay heat problem For every degree you increase temperature you get less of a reaction Breeder Reactor Fuel utilization efficiency between 4070 Bill Gates Terra Power Large density of fissile nuclei breed from fertile to fissile Decay Heat 5 parts of a reactor r I I I I 1 I r t P ooucruou RAT 39 I0 0 IO so bAQREL Y9 P w lO Lo P v YR 5 39os 01 Tlt O0quot Ie o 1500 I920 15 I650 1630 Fig 2 History of world crude oil production scmilugarilhmic scale Rcdrawn from llubbcrfs Fig 6 Ref 7 Rnrrs or PRODUCTION A D t 17 Tune EET R P reserves production high for coal Coal fires Sources Self heating hot from oxygen trapped Natural events lightning Refuse dump fires Ways to stop fires Non combustible gases to suffocate oxygen barriers trenches or large walls Fill holes to suffocate oxygen Components of Light water reactor LWR 1 Fuel Uses fissile nuclei U235 enrished to 4 a Low fissilfe density low enrichment limits possibility of nuclear reaction 07 remains after 1 year use c Pu239 can be processes by accident 3 4 5 Moderator box Heavy water or graphite negative temperature coefficient amp must absorb neutrons Control Rods Neutron absorbin material cadmium or boron Shielding Keeps radioactivity our of biosphere Coolant Water helium Must not absorb neutrons Invisible Tsunami is rising water from sea level 50 From the environmental point of view the second law of efficiency is much more significant than the first law why Because it makes sure the task is well matched This allows for less energy waste in producing the necessary exergy to complete a task Tells us where to put our funds like engineering imperfections or where we need to put our funds to take advantage of the environment and heat pumps Facts Perfect heat pump destroys entropy Natural Nuclear Ractor Gabon Cogeneration Combined heat and power Exergy No entropy McKelveybox Reserves vs Ressource Efficient and Lazy Heat Pump COP QhW Electricity Twice combined cycle Hydrofracking Marcellus Shale Reserve Production Ratio No growth Calthrate Flammable Ice Isotope Same Chemistry Enrichment Isotope Separation Energy Waste in 2 categories 2nd law tolls Engineering imperfections Fissile Capable of being split Fertile Capable of converting to Fissile Carnot heat engine vs real heat engine f represents second law efficiency how well matched the use of energy is to the tacts Graph on right hybrid car Combined heat and power Heat pump for homes Heat pumps can exceed 100 because they have a coefficient of proporttion measured by dividing the hottest temperature by the difference in temperate COP Qh delta T Decay heat is heat given off by radioactive activity Negative health effects of coal respiratory problems amp chemicals cause for suffocation Breeder reactor converts fertile to fissile faster that consumption of fissile nuclei A perfect heat engine is impossible It is a perpetual motion of the second kind Negative temperature coefficient if temperature is too hot nothing happens cz nuclei don39t split Fertile Isotope U 238 Th 232 Fissile Isotope Pu239 U 233 U 235 Chapter 5 page 3 what rays penetrate what 3 diagram identify 1 label axis Damn height Vs thermocline Doesn39t consider 2nd law of efficiency or engineer imperfections Know difference between Anrocite vs Bythumis NUCl AR REACTORS Bunuen ctuauw slow ya small tow ratcr gtparatlo s asto o1 4 2 Paper stops alpha aluminum stops beta Concrete stop gama 52squot mutrons Fast modu394tor no Si Large opcrating tempv high bomb pl1ysics similar ensign om mm cumcuu Fad utilization go 9 70 1 efficiency A Carnot 5 Law It is impossible to have a perfect heat engine A perfect heat engine is a perpetual motion of the second kind Key terms 1 Heat enines perfect ideal or Carnot and real 2 Reversibility Q A 3 2quot law tolls 3 4 Carnot fraction Heat Engines PERFECT CARNOT IDEAL REAL EFFICIENCY 100 ATITH f ATITH ENTROPY destroyed no change produced 1 REVERSIBLE yes no 2quot LAW TOLLS no yes yes fquot is the fraction of the maximum theoretical heat conversion efficiency Camot V efficiency at which a heat engine can operate see page ll44 Fig 1 Caption ES115 Sustainable Energy amp The Environment W12 Lec 1 Energy is not only a necessity but an elixir for the global economy it is the basis of the wealth of nations Lecture Introduction 1 Syllabus Workbook amp Readings 2 Class Goals 3 Energy problem 4 What is new 5 Videos Shift Happens amp David Yergin on Energy Sustainable Energy and the Environment ES 115 Syllabus Winter 2012 quotWhen we try to pick out anything by itself we find it hitched to everything else in the Universe John Muir Lectures MTW 300350PM BUCH 1910 Instructor Mel Manalis Of ce Hours Wed 1030am to noon Bren 4005 Required Required Reading Assignments will be made on Mondays Problem Sets Assigned in class from the ES 115 Workbook ExamsWi cover lectures required readings and problem sets Grade Section 40 see section syllabus Midterm exam 1 30 Midterm exam 2 30 100 Web Unit Conversion wwwdigitadutchcomunitconverter READINGS 1 ES 115 Workbook Grafikart 6550 Pardall Rd IV 9683575 2 Coal A Human History Barbara Freese UCSB Bookstore 3 ES 115 Supplement GauchoSpace 4 Beyond Smoke and Mirrors Burton Richter UCSB Bookstore or Amazoncom 5 Sustainable Energy without hot air David MacKay wvvwwithouthotaircom download at no cost Bill Gates Says of MacKay s Book If someone wants an overall view of how energy gets used where it comes from and the challenges in switching to new sources this is the book to readf January 23 2010 Readings for first week Wb Workbook Preface pp xiixvii Chap1 with emphasis on pages 14 and 830 and page 45 SE Sustainable Energy pp 2 5 GS GauchoSpace The Real Cost of Energy Going to Extremes The oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico and Fukushima A Game Changer for Nuclear Energy BSM Beyond Smoke and Mirrors Preface Introduction pp 16 and Part III pp 217218 Class Goals quotquotquot quotquot39 quot 39 quotquot 39 quot5 Students will learn that Energy and the Environment Me Man I summer mo The laws of thermodynamics provide 390 o u 2 O Q o Population Size and Age Distribution uuuuuuuuu on Vlonn Africa and West Am the governing rules and the scientific foundation of how we harness energy in a sustainable manner The future belongs to those who can manipulate entropy Frederic Keffer Eric MRogers Physics for the Inquiring Mind Princeton University Press 1960 p 395 Energy and entropy provide an integrative capability for addressing all Sorts of environmental problems 0 North Africa and West Ash INAWA 0 Central and South America D 39v quot100I Sid O Industria 2 countries 0 Middle East 0 Eastern turoue and former USSR Social injustices that are prevalent in today s societies are related to the lack sustainable energy QM IN 63 0 mi YJDW 74 1 1760 Nunnlputapilntlnttldly lnnli ll Energy is not only a necessity but an elixir for the global economy it is the basis of the wealth of nations Refer to pay I 3 In the workbook Three Components of the Energy Problem 1 Climate Change 2 Energy poverty 3 Security of energy supply CUMULATIVE CO2 EMISSIONS 17502006 Russia United United 7739 Knngdom 6 Sums 277 Rest of the world 13 2 0 Shipping 21 0 i I I Canada and Rest of J Australia 39 km 3 P 00 184 84 5 Japan e Germany 42 M53 67 25 ES115 Sustainable Energy amp The Environment W 12 Lec 2 I Recent News A Remembering Kyoto 120411 B This is a Big Deal 12O411 C Extreme Weather 122411 ll External costs of energy What you can t count counts Ill Interfacing Energy Technology with People A Population amp Human Development Index HDI 1 People with no electricity North Africa amp West Asia 2 Integrated solutions to energy poverty B Technology learning from failure Remember Kyoto Most Nations Don t Gauchospace NYT December 4 2011 American Progress Growth of US carbon dioxide emissions slowed after 2000 even before the economic collapse of 2008 Average annual change in emissions 19002000 16vearv 2ooo2oo7 0400 yearly Cleaner vs Dirtier BILLIONS OF METRIC TONS OF CO2 FROM FUEL COM BUSTION 7 Regions with stable 6 or falling emissions Percent change 19902009 5 Russia and former Soviet bloc 36 4 W Europe 5 3 T Japan 3 Britain 15 France 1 1990 2009 China 206 Regions with large emissions United increases States 7 India Asia except China Japan 144 Middle East Laun 171 America 63 Africa 70 Canada 20 1990 2009 Thomas Friedman WB Chap I pp 5052 and 6469 and Gauchospacez This is a Big Deal Extreme Weather Climate scientists believe some modern weather extremes especially heat waves are linked to humancaused global warming but for other extremes the evidence is less clear YEMPERATURE EXTREMES Percentage of the contiguous US with maximum temperatures much above or below normal Dust Bowl ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERA TURES BELOW NORMAL o j wave of bj TEMPERA TURE3 V 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 Sources NOAA temperature extremes Insurance lnlommation Institute Munich Re Extreme Weather NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE US Number of storms forest res O 200 droughts and floods l 9 100 1 0 to 11 j 7 June 1980 1990 2000 2010 r 25 of the US 2010 2000 I 1980 1990 Costs Associated with Energy The World of Seven Billion Living Without Electricity One in ve people on the planet live without electricity generally because they are not connected to a grid Poverty and politics both can in uence the way countries shape their grid infrastructure NEPAL 56 BANGLADESH 59 AFGHANISTAN I8 1 HAITI 62 KS NYA 86 R39i39amp NDA 96 CAMBODIA 7 SOUYH AFRICA 25 T Porcentage 0 population without access to electricity Source United Nations No data 0 25 50 75 039 quot39 Pquot quot quot39 939m nu M w rmax nmr4 Yr 2010 Population amp Human Development Index HDI HDI components longev y educational attainment standard of living Human Development Index The World of SEVEN BILLION 1390 Netherlands N UK Japan Australia US Canada Orxvay 39 Chile Italy G rrrl lurlce Caquotf quot a 0 Poland South Korea 8 Mexico 0 Kazakhstan Russia O7o Cina UkrOaine Saudi Arabia 0 Indonesia O6 oE9ypt quot I dquot aq 0 North Africa and West Asia n Ia 05 Pakistan 0 Central amp South America C 9 K39 quot a a Eastern Europe and former USSR 04 0 Developing Asia 0 Industrialized countries 03 Ethiopia Niger D East 02 01 World Average Human Development Index 074 World Average per Capita Electricity Consumption 2190 kWhpersonyear 0 I I I I I I I I I I I 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 1 0000 1 2000 14000 1 6000 27000 Annual per Capita Electricity Use kWh Chu Steven Conference The Entropy Challenge Oct 2007 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Pasternack A Global Energy Futures and Human Development A Framework for Analysis Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory UCRLID140773 Oct 2000 The Lead EnvironmentalEnergy Challenge People with no electricity Integrated solutions to energy poverty Cuture amp Anthropology eapfrog tech nology 10 kvllorld Populti Grwth Re 3 o u rces 8 Diplomacy T 6 FrontIer concept g E p P U E 2 Developing regions o 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 ES115 Sustainable Energy amp The Environment W12 Lec 3 Homework 1due in section during the fourth week HW1 questions s 118 pVl1 questions s 77 78 and 79 ppVl8 amp 9 Lecture I War amp EnergyStrait of Hormuz ll TED talk Bill Gates talks about Terrapower The Narrow and Vulnerable Strait Of Hormuz The shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz are only six miles wide and are vulnerable to attack by Iranian missiles The strait could also be mined or ships could easily be attacked by armed Iranian speedboats January 12 2012 16 million barrels of oil per day About a fifth of the world s daily oil trade IRAQ RAquot KUWAIT BAHRAIN Persian QATAR Gulf SAUDI ARABIA UNITED ARAB EMIRATES quot I Shipping lane Dubai o Bandar Abbas JAZIREHYE I OESHM Surfacetoship missile range J k Intomational as 39 maritime UNITED boundary ARAB P EMIRATES N quot1379 30 MIIBS Class Goals quotquotquot quotquot39 quot 39 quotquot 39 quot5 Students will learn that Energy and the Environment Me Man I summer mo The laws of thermodynamics provide 390 o u 2 O Q o Population Size and Age Distribution uuuuuuuuu on Vlonn Africa and West Am the governing rules and the scientific foundation of how we harness energy in a sustainable manner The future belongs to those who can manipulate entropy Frederic Keffer Eric MRogers Physics for the Inquiring Mind Princeton University Press 1960 p 395 Energy and entropy provide an integrative capability for addressing all Sorts of environmental problems 0 North Africa and West Ash INAWA 0 Central and South America D 39v quot100I Sid O Industria 2 countries 0 Middle East 0 Eastern turoue and former USSR Social injustices that are prevalent in today s societies are related to the lack sustainable energy QM IN 63 0 mi YJDW 74 1 1760 Nunnlputapilntlnttldly lnnli ll Energy is not only a necessity but an elixir for the global economy it is the basis of the wealth of nations Refer to pay I 3 In the workbook Three Components of the Energy Problem 1 Climate Change 2 Energy poverty 3 Security of energy supply CUMULATIVE CO2 EMISSIONS 17502006 Russia United United 7739 Knngdom 6 Sums 277 Rest of the world 13 2 0 Shipping 21 0 i I I Canada and Rest of J Australia 39 km 3 P 00 184 84 5 Japan e Germany 42 M53 67 25 ES115 Sustainable Energy amp The Environment W 12 Lec 2 I Recent News A Remembering Kyoto 120411 B This is a Big Deal 12O411 C Extreme Weather 122411 ll External costs of energy What you can t count counts Ill Interfacing Energy Technology with People A Population amp Human Development Index HDI 1 People with no electricity North Africa amp West Asia 2 Integrated solutions to energy poverty B Technology learning from failure Remember Kyoto Most Nations Don t Gauchospace NYT December 4 2011 American Progress Growth of US carbon dioxide emissions slowed after 2000 even before the economic collapse of 2008 Average annual change in emissions 19002000 16vearv 2ooo2oo7 0400 yearly Cleaner vs Dirtier BILLIONS OF METRIC TONS OF CO2 FROM FUEL COM BUSTION 7 Regions with stable 6 or falling emissions Percent change 19902009 5 Russia and former Soviet bloc 36 4 W Europe 5 3 T Japan 3 Britain 15 France 1 1990 2009 China 206 Regions with large emissions United increases States 7 India Asia except China Japan 144 Middle East Laun 171 America 63 Africa 70 Canada 20 1990 2009 Extreme weather NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE U Number of storms forest res 7 200 Climate scientists believe some modern weather extremes droughts and oods A especially heat waves are linked to humancaused global mi warming but for other extremes the evidence is less clear H W p 100 TEMPERATUREEXTREME5 WW lz lilmw 1 to Percentage of the contiguous US with maximum temperatures much quot l 39 r I J 5 above or below normal 1930 1990 2ooo 2010 50 of the Dust Bowl US ABOVE NORMAL A TEMPERATURES 15quot l v to I t 0 i i H 4 ll O NW 1 39 quot r I I 25 of the BELOW NORMAL us Cold wave of 1912 TEMPERATURES l u n 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Sources NOAA temperature extremes Insurance lnlomnation Institute Munich Re Extreme Weather Living Without Electricity One in five people on the planet live without electricity generally because they are not connected to a grid Poverty and politics both can influence the way countries shape their grid infrastructure NEPAL BANGLADESH 59 AFGHANISTAN on C a F HAN Q J KE NYA ll awn um I 39 K I CAMBODIA 7 SOUYH AFRICA 28 Porcontago or population w houtamxmstoemun c y Source Unled Nations No data 0 25 50 75 0 39V39 Fquot quot quot39 939Im T nu Mtw Y no IIMI4 Yr 2010 Population amp Human Development Index HDI HDI components longev y educational attainment standard of living Human Development Index The World of SEVEN BILLION 1390 Netherlands N UK Japan Australia US Canada Orxvay 39 Chile Italy G rrrl lurlce Caquotf quot a 0 Poland South Korea 8 Mexico 0 Kazakhstan Russia O7o Cina UkrOaine Saudi Arabia 0 Indonesia O6 oE9ypt quot I dquot aq 0 North Africa and West Asia n Ia 05 Pakistan 0 Central amp South America C 9 K39 quot a a Eastern Europe and former USSR 04 0 Developing Asia 0 Industrialized countries 03 Ethiopia Niger n East 02 01 World Average Human Development Index 074 World Average per Capita Electricity Consumption 2190 kWhpersonyear 0 I I I I I I I I I I I 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 1 0000 1 2000 14000 1 6000 27000 Annual per Capita Electricity Use kWh Chu Steven Conference The Entropy Challenge Oct 2007 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Pasternack A Global Energy Futures and Human Development A Framework for Analysis Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory UCRLID140773 Oct 2000 The Narrow and Vulnerable Strait Of Hormuz The shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz are only six miles wide and are vulnerable to attack by Iranian missiles The strait could also be mined or ships could easily be attacked by armed Iranian speedboats January 12 2012 16 million barrels of oil per day About a fifth of the world s daily oil trade IRAQ RAquot KUWAIT BAHRAIN Persian QATAR Gulf SAUDI ARABIA UNITED ARAB EMIRATES quot I Shipping lane Dubai o Bandar Abbas JAZIREHYE I OESHM Surfacetoship missile range J k Intomational as 39 maritime UNITED boundary ARAB PW EMIRATES N quot1379 30 MIIBS ES115 Sustainable Energy amp The Environment W 12 Lec 4 Energy and People Sustainability Energy Basics Units Hydro Dams amp Thermoclines Lecture I Interfacing Energy Technology with People A Population amp Human Development Index HDI 1 People with no electricity North Africa amp West Asia 2 Integrated solutions to energy poverty B Technology learning from failure ll Energy units A Fundamental BHyb d C Equivalent D Gigantic Population amp Human Development Index HDI HDI components longev y educational attainment standard of living Human Development Index The World of SEVEN BILLION 1390 Netherlands N UK Japan Australia US Canada Orxvay 39 Chile Italy G rrrl lurlce Caquotf quot a 0 Poland South Korea 8 Mexico 0 Kazakhstan Russia O7o Cina UkrOaine Saudi Arabia 0 Indonesia O6 oE9ypt quot I dquot aq 0 North Africa and West Asia n Ia 05 Pakistan 0 Central amp South America C 9 K39 quot a a Eastern Europe and former USSR 04 0 Developing Asia 0 Industrialized countries 03 Ethiopia Niger P East 02 01 World Average Human Development Index 074 World Average per Capita Electricity Consumption 2190 kWhpersonyear 0 I I I I I I I I I I I 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 1 0000 1 2000 14000 1 6000 27000 Annual per Capita Electricity Use kWh Chu Steven Conference The Entropy Challenge Oct 2007 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Pasternack A Global Energy Futures and Human Development A Framework for Analysis Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory UCRLID140773 Oct 2000 ll BEWILDERMENT OF ENERGY UNITS Fundamental A Work B Heat Hybrid Energy Power Time Equivalent Energy content of a given quantity of a fuel Gigantic A Quad B Exaioule C Zettajoule D Yottajoule 1 930 1 950 WORLD POPULATION BILLIONS TRADITIONAL ENERGY USE PER PERSON KILOWATTS INDUSTRIAL ENERGY USE PER PERSONIKILOWATTS TOTAL WORLD ENERGY USE TERAWATTS CUMULATIVE INDUSTRIAL ENERGY USE SINCE 1850 T ERAWATTYEARS TRENDS in population and energy use per person account for the past century s rapid growth of world energy demand Industrial energy forms are mainly coal oil and natural gas with smaller contributions from hydropower and nuclear energy Traditional fuels are wood crop wastes and dung A terawatt is equal to a billion tons of coal or ve billion barrels of oil per year Data were compiled by the author 160 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN September 1990 ES115 Sustainable Energy amp The Environment W 12 Lec 5 13 Law of Thermodynamics Energy Basics Units Hydro Dams amp Thermoclines Lecture I Energy units A Review B Significance of Mt Everest and the kilowatthour ll Thermodynamics and three definitions of energy A First law and the unit Joule B Perpetual motion machines C Types of primary energy D Net energy analysis Thermodynamics began as the scientific basis of how to turn HEAT energy into mechanical WORK It is the scientific foundation of how we harness energy and the basis of the Wealth of Nations Steven Chu 1997 Nobel Laureate MIT October 4 2007 THE GOVERNING RULES OF ENERGY Thermodynamics is the only physical theory of a general nature of which I am convinced that it will never be overthrown Albert Einstein Laws of thermodynamics In the Real World 15 Law EnergyJOULE is always conserved ie Consumption means conversion No perpetual motion machines Enyr E wer beeiee Energy Te reeeeered in Jauslee J Pwer Te ITIEEaELFEd in Wrefffte W 1 Wee 1 iLJiEJ39r e eeed 40 epplee per eeeend Frern the reendp te the table 4 Wette Ltng en epple Frern the mend 4 the teele 1 Jeule Hunniri quotrquot U39 Apple Ieetee tekee 4 We I IMPORTANT UNITS FOR ENERGY amp POWER Consider a 4 oz apple on a 1 meter table Apple 2 4 oz 2 01 kg M 2 01 kg g 10 mlsecz h 1 meter Gravitational potential energy mgh s 1 joule Perpetual motion machines The pursuit of perpetual machines is sustained by the absence of a mathematical proof to the contrary If a scientific proposition is false a single counterexample proves its falsehood but if it happens to be true neither experimental confirmation nor mathematical demonstration can prove that it wll always hold Perpetual motion machines The pursuit of perpetual machines is sustained by the absence of a mathematical proof to the contrary If a scientific proposition is false a single counterexample proves its falsehood but if it happens to be true neither experimental confirmation nor mathematical demonstration can prove that it wll always hold ES115 Sustainable Energy amp The Environment W 12 Lec 6 13 Law of Thermodynamics Energy Basics Units Hydro Dams amp Thermoclines Lecture HOMEWORK 1 DUE IN YOUR SECTION DURING 4quot WEEK I First law A Three definitions of energy B Net energy analysis ll Examples of mechanical energy PE KE mgh 1l2mV2 A Pile driver problem 27a B Helms Hydro Project p ll41 amp the electricity load curve C Rivers of Patagonia Chile p I55 Ill Examples of thermal energy heat MCAT A The Joule experiment Mechanical Equivalent of Heat B Solar Energy Enhanced Hydroelectric Plants thermoclines Eqs 1 and 2 page ll44 N T eneney consmemcnows fit talus wcrgy to get energyquot Enugy used to support the Following must be Considcrcd EXTRACTLON Pnocessm cousmucnon speeo or tMpL M NTATlON DYNAMICS ResTonA139LoN O COMMltONlN6 wAsre DlPOAL Thermocline Energy 0 Feb 22 1977 F K 39 1quot 33 39 39 3 0 53 5 3 ID 52 Hater Depth 3 14 In July 28 145 in Feb 22 o quot quot quot quot quot quotquot quotquot 2 315 39 Temperature 39C cal Thermocline Profiles for Hoover Dam Data provided by R D Mason Bureau of amation Boulder City Nevada Typi Rec Thermo Equivalent Gravitational Head hm PW 4 L fTM T Ug J 0 W f L WWf WHf J Jgf 6400m A Hoover Dam 1 V 4 G 230m Solar Energy Enhanced Hydroelectric Plants Eqs 1 and 2 page ll44 Norma Hydroelectric Plant gravitational potential energy at head h kinetic energy Mgh 12 MV2 Solar Enhanced Hydroelectric Plant hypothetical potential energy at head hth thermal energy Mghth MCAT Eq1 hmAT Cg 427 meters OK Eq2 hth is referred to as the thermal equivalent head in direct analogy with an actual conventional hydroelectric plant whose water height behind the dam is refered to as headY For AT 15 OK hm 64 kilometers 12 000 feet Since the average dam height in the US is 40 meters 130 feet the thermal energy stored in hydroelectric dam thermoclines substantially exceeds energy stored in the gravitational potential Perpetual motion machines The pursuit of perpetual machines is sustained by the absence of a mathematical proof to the contrary If a scientific proposition is false a single counterexample proves its falsehood but if it happens to be true neither experimental confirmation nor mathematical demonstration can prove that it wll always hold ES115 Sustainable Energy amp The Environment W 12 Lec 7 15 Law of Thermodynamics Energy Basics Units Hydro Dams amp Thermoclines HOMEWORK 1 DUE IN YOUR SECTION DURING 4quot WEEK Problems 5 118 and 5 7779 httpwwwtedcomtalksbigateshtml Today sLectu re I Helms project ampSoar Energy Enhanced Hydroelectric Pants ll Definition of power P EIT and problem 18 A Ragoni plot page ll80 B Spreng triangle page Ill64 Ill Simple Earth s energy balance with no greenhouse effect p ll38 A Inputs 1 Solar electromagnetic radiation 2 Tides human contribution and geothermal energy B Outputs 1 Reflectivity albedo 2 Infrared electromagnetic radiation C Earth s temperature sensitivity as function of energy input D Environmental significance httD wwwvoutu becomwatchvx59M DtHscxY Helms Project pll41 c xii 39Q 42 N r M IIIQ 391 39lllI liil quot 0 1 393 I39 39 3901 4 quot 39 0 U 1 W x PE F P T I K XAfixXgt p c I 1 Electricity load KWh Electric Utility Load Curve 23 hrsday Power supply from single source I Intermediate Load Time of Day Power and Filling Your Gas Tank Say it takes 5 minutes 300 sec to fill a 20 gallon car fuel tank with gasoline 1 gal gasoline 013 GJ How much power flows through your hands as you fill the 20 gallon tank Power and Filling your Gas Tank Given Variables Energy in a gallon of Gasoline Egal O13GJgal Number of Gallons in your tank 20 gal Time T 300 sec P E Solve For Power 7 Energy in a 20 gal Tank E 013 GJg a4x 20 ga1 EZ6GJ 26 G 26 x 1091 087 x 1071 300 sec 30 X 102 sec sec 87 X 1061 sec 87 MW HW 1 8 18 Suppose that the maximum incident solar radiation at the earth s equator IS 1370 mi If one were able to harness all of the energy incident on I square meter how many hours of peak solar energy would it take to generate energy equivalent to that contained in 1 barrel ot39oil Note lbbl 6 GJ Given Power per square meter 1370 Wm2 Assumed Area 1 m2 Energy in a Barrel of oil 61 GJ Solve for Time hours Total Power for assumed area 1370 WIN XNZ 9 1370 W E 1 G 61 x 10 6 1 h T 45X10seCgtlt 3 p 1370 W 137 X 103 36 X 10 SEC sec 125 X 103 hr 1250 hours Application of Ragone Plots Need an engine that is high power amp light weight say for acceleration then go for high specific power Concerned about range then go for high specific energy Spreng Triangle THE GREAT TRADEOFFS TIME amp ENERGY Slowly costs time means we use less energy OR fast saves time means we use more energy HASTE MAKES WASTE INFORMATION amp ENERGY Energy can be used to compensate for lack of information OR clever use of information can save energy TIME amp INFORMATION With lots of time to apply trialamperror approaches we don t need information but with limited time we need information to determine an optimum approach The Backbone of the Climate System Simplified Global Energy Balance pageh38 so M asc 4CFT4 where M Ptides P P human geothermal Let R Heat the earth must radiate away R is given by R 4CFT4 1 130 M ATT 392 and ARR 392 Using elementary calculus ATT 14 ARR ES115 Sustainable Energy amp The Environment W12 Lec 10 15 Law of Thermodynamics Greenhouse Effect HOMEWORK 2 Problems s 20 21 23a ampb 2425 27a 29a ampb 31 and 42 DUE IN YOUR SECTION DURING 6 WEEK Lecture Earth s energy balance amp the greenhouse effect I Energy balance including the greenhouse effect A Greenhouse effect B Earth systems carbon cycle and C02 1 History of CO2 atmospheric concentration 2 CO2 stabilization C Acidification of the oceans 1 pH scale 2 Status and current projections D Approaching CO2 Stabilization E Removal times for greenhouse gases page 60 Table 1 F Greenhouse Warming Potential GWP page ll50 Table 61 II Results and summary energy balance changes A Effective forcings 1750 2000 63 B A transition scenario p 68 III A Possible Carbon Future THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT surface of the Earth 9 ix g i g w equ ibriums s b equili rium E no greenhouse with gfffeenhouse gases in atmosphere V M3s E f atInosphereV E Radiation balance the essential basis of climate Infrared Visible light 4CFT4 Visible Solar Energy Input gt Infrared Energy Output Acid Water Amonia Vinegar quotPurequot Baking Rain Soda OH391Oquot 4 10 1397 1039 10 E Distilled Water a neutra Increasing Acidity Increasing Basicity Atmospheric Carbon in the Form of CO2 Past Present amp Future Doubled CO2 to A A 4400quot 570 ppm AVAILABLE VOLUME A Today 3000 380 ppm Base i ne iZZCZZ3939IIII 2200 285 ppm Glacial I39 393T39 39 if 1 190 ppm To raise the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere by one part per million ppm add 77 giga tonnes of CO2 21 giga tonnes of carbon giga billions tonnes CO2 mOdified from Socolow 2008 tonne 1000 kilograms metric ton Approaching CO2 Stabilization Effects won t be seen on the timescale of necessary actions Sealevel rise from thermal expansion and ice melt Centuries to several millennia D Temperature 9 CO2 emissions peak stabilization 8 0100 years U 9 l quot5 cog stabilization 100300 years 5 C 2 cu I I I Today 100 years 200 years 300 years Time taken to reach equilibrium Time series of top atmospheric CO2 and surface ocean pCO2 and bottom surface ocean pH at the atmospheric Mauna Loa Observatory MLO on the island of Hawaii and Station ALOHA in the subtropical North Pacific north of Hawaii 19882008 380 Sea pCO2 based on DIC and TA o Wet air pCO2 based on 11iH3i W fl 1 wt 1 MLOdata I v Fig A 360 quot I I I U I 1 cu 1 1 quot quot39 3 L n X N 340 MIquot rquot I 3 r I 1 F r 39 Air pCO2 trend 169 2 003 patm y 300 Sea pCO2 trend 188 1 015 uatm y 0 pH based on DIC and TA 1 2 9 reC po 1 l39 y 9 812 5 r I r T z L quot39 gr 1 R I K W E 810 M V O 4 lIiiE 5 5 0 2 3 1 P E I 11 J A i8D8 ls 39 e I E 1 ft 31 w ff 1 I pp M H I 39 quot i V 39 139 739 7 1 1 305 In situ pH trend 00019 2 00002 y 3989 I91 3993 95 97 99 O1 O3 O5 O7 09 S C Doney Science 328 15121516 2010 UKSIIIWIUC UUSCI V39clllUI1 U1 plunging K Marine chemist Robert Byrne of the Univer sity of South Florida in St Petersburg and colleagues reported 20 January in Geophysi cal Research Letters that the pH of surface waters along a line running 3200 kilometers north from near the island of Hawaii fell between 1991 and 2006 see gure p 1500 The pH decline attributable to human activi ties over the 15 years was 0026 pH unit a drop Byrne calls startling in its rapidity Overall researchers estimate there has been a 01pHunit decline for the global ocean since industrialization began a couple of centuries ago In logarithmic pH units the change may seem tiny but in absolute terms that translates into a 30 increase in sur faceocean acidity Now ocean pH is lower than it s been for 20 million years and it s going to get lower says marine chemist Richard Feely of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration s NOAA s Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle Washington He and his colleagues have modeled future pH based on what he calls the irrefutable chemistry of acidi cation The model assumes a businessasusual growth in carbon dioxide emissions As they report in the same Oceanography issue the model ing predicts a drop from a preindustrial pH of 82 to about 78 by the end of this century That would increase the surface ocean s acid 3 ity by about 150 on average Ocean pH AMS June 2010 At stabilization allowed emissions are about onethird of today s 6 Fossil Fuel Burning giga tonnes A i CO2 go in 0 giga tonnes CO2 aquot aquotY added annually 4400 l giga tonnes CO2 39 Ear 5 Ocean M H Land Biosphere net 10 0 gigatonnes C0290 out Stabilization at double the preindustrial concentration modified from Socolow 2008 ACIDIFYING THE OCEAN H20 CO2 gt Carbonic acid HCO3 As of today there has been 01pHunit decline since 1750 30 increase acidity AT Y2100 models predict a drop from a pre industrial pH of 82 to near 78 increase of about 150 of the surface ocean s acidity LIFETIME AND GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIAL OF HUMANGENERATED GREENHOUSE GASES Gas ICC CH4 N20 CFCII CFC12 HCFC22 Lifetime years Global warming potential AMOUNT OF GAS IN ATMOSPHERE AS EXPRESSED IN PARTS PER BILLION ppb P929 CO2 carbon dioxide Amount in atmosphere 386000 ppb CH4 methane Amount in atmosphere 1774 ppb N20 nitrous oxide Amount in atmosphere 319 ppb CFC12chlorodifluoromethane Amount in atmosphere 05 ppb Removal Times amp Global Warming Potentialz GWP Removal Times GWP Greenhouse gases CO2 gt100 Yr 37 remains after 100Yr 1 CH4 10 Yr 23 CFC about 100 Yr about 6500 NF3 740 Yr 172003 SF6 3200 Yr 228003 Fine aerosols Black carbon soot about 10 days Sulfate about 10 days 1 Tabe1 page ll60 2 Table 61 page ll50 3 22quot 39 European Photovoltaic Conference Fiera Milano Italy September 2007 ES115 Sustainable Energy amp The Environment W 12 Lec 8 15 Law of Thermodynamics Energy Balance HOMEWORK 2 DUE IN YOUR SECTION DURING 6 WEEK Problems s 20 21 23a ampb 2425 27a 29 23a ampb 31 and 42 Today sLecture I Energy and power and the Ragone plot ll Simple Earth s energy balance with no greenhouse effect p ll38 A Inputs 1 Solar electromagnetic radiation 2 Tides human contribution and geothermal energy B Outputs 1 Reflectivity albedo 2 Infrared electromagnetic radiation C Earth s temperature sensitivity as function of energy input D Environmental significance Energy Density Whkg 1 000 100 3 1 hour 1 second 10 3 10 hours 3 1 0 1 003 second 39 C al 001 10 100 1000 10000 Power Density Wkg Auto Acceleration 139 Also called speci c power Also called speci c energy Ragone chart showing energy density vs power density for various energystoring devices Technical note on the Ragone Plot The Ragone plot is used for performance comparison of various energy storing devices values of energy density in Whkg are plotted versus power density in Wkg Axes are logarithmic which allows comparing performance of very different devices for example extremely high and extremely low power The chart was first used to compare performance of batteries it is suitable to compare any energystoring devices Conceptually the vertical axis describes how much energy is available auto range while the horizontal axis shows how quickly that energy can be delivered car acceleration othenNise known as power per unit mass eg powering a small lightbulb may require low amounts of power but the power should be delivered slowly enough to operate a flashlight for minutes or hours of use Conversely a high speed electronic switch inside a computer may require very little energy to activate yet it must be delivered rapidly enough to complete the transaction in mere microseconds These two types of loads would be represented at opposite corners of the Ragone chart The Backbone of the Climate System Simplified Global Energy Balance pageh38 so M asc 4crT4 where M Ptides P P human geothermal Simplified Global Energy Balance No atmosphere or greenhouse gases Question Can global climate change still occur Figure 9 Percentage contributions of various energy sources to world primary energy consumption 2000 Total consumption in 2000 was 424 exajoules equivalent to just over I0 000 million tonnes of oil The average rate of consumption was some l34 million million watts l 34terawatts Note that the actual amounts of electricity produced by nuclear and hydro power were almost the same but due to a statistical convention in the de nition of primary energy the nuclear contribution is multiplied by a factor of 3 see Chapter 2 o other century in human history can compare with he 20th for its growth in energy use we have eployed more energy since 1900 than all of human istory before 1900 Ragone plot pagelh8O Electrical Power amp Energy Storage Comparison 10000 Gasoline I quot39 39 E 39 Hvdrouen 1000 Batteries 39 5 Specific Energy Whlkg 10 DOE Target for Ultracapacitors Range I Projected Pro39ected Carbon Metal 1 Ca lacitors oxide 9 Capacitors 01 1 I 1 I 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000 Specific Power Wkg Acceleration Radiation balance the essential basis of climate Infrared 4CFT4 Visible Solar Energy Input Infrared Energy Output Distribution of Solar Energy on the Earth Reflection 10 Micron Radiation Albedo Waste Heat H20 100 X89 Evaporation l C Solar Em mJy M M M M wind Exploitable wind energy Hydropower photosynthesis Global climate change with no g ree n h o use gases P E N N Annual Energy Consumption of the World If we got lots and lots of power energy from nuclear fission or fusion wouldn t this contribute to global warming because of all the extra energy being released into the environment MacKay page 170 The Backbone of the Climate System Simplified Global Energy Balance pageh38 so M asc 4CFT4 where M Ptides P P human geothermal Let R Heat the earth must radiate away R is given by R 4CFT4 1 130 M ATT 392 and ARR 392 Using elementary calculus ATT 14 ARR ES115 Sustainable Energy amp The Environment W12 Lec 9 15 Law of Thermodynamics Greenhouse Effect Lecture Earth s energy balance amp the greenhouse effect I Review A Unique example of the Ragone plot B Energy balance with no greenhouse effect 1 Earth s temperature as function waste heat that must be radiated away 2 Overall environmental significance ll Energy balance including the greenhouse effect A Greenhouse effect defined B Earth systems and Carbon dioxide CO2 C Carbon cycle D A Possible Carbon Future E Removal times for greenhouse gases page ll60 Table 1 F Greenhouse Warming Potential GWP page ll50 Table 61 Perpetual motion machines The pursuit of perpetual machines is sustained by the absence of a mathematical proof to the contrary If a scientific proposition is false a single counterexample proves its falsehood but if it happens to be true neither experimental confirmation nor mathematical demonstration can prove that it will always hold The Backbone of the Climate System Simplified Global Energy Balance pageh38 so M asc 4CFT4 where M Ptides P P human geothermal Let R Heat the earth must radiate away R is given by R 4CFT4 1 130 M ATT 392 and ARR 392 Using elementary calculus ATT 14 ARR The Earth is a Greenhouse Planet Venus 1 5 C Average Surface Temperatures The combination of solar irradiance and greenhouse effect determines the mean surface temperatures of Mars Earth and Venus In the absence of the natural greenhouse effect the average surface temperature of Earth would be 19 C Source CT Bowman Mechanical Engineering Stanford Greenhouse Effect Defined On average the earth s surface receives more heat from the atmosphere amp clouds than it does N20 CH4 339ff directly from the sun This warming of the 6 l5 earth s surface from the atmosphere amp clouds is the greenhouse effect The thermal infrared EMR from the atmosphere amp clouds is by far a greater source of energy for the earth s surface than is the solar energy at shorter wavelengths ie sunshine Emanuel Kerry Physics Today August 2006 o H20 CI roplets I 2 Atmospheric Carbon in the Form of CO2 Past Present amp Future Doubled CO2 w to A A 4400quot 570 ppm AVAILABLE VOLUME A Today 3000 380 ppm Base i ne iZZCZZ3939IIII 2200 285 ppm Glacial I39 393T39 39 if 1 190 ppm To raise the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere by one part per million ppm add 77 giga tonnes of CO2 21 giga tonnes of carbon giga billions tonnes CO2 mOdified from Socolow 2008 tonne 1000 kilograms metric ton E V 3 E Lu p f l 3 gt M D L4 quotv vquot caquot quot 14 V 39394 51 v V 3 Lu a m L V Iquot J Jwi V 3a 7 sa Net Accumulation in Ocean Pquotr1otosyrr39rJess Respimtiorx Circulation From Ginger Armbrust ES115 Sustainable Energy amp The Environment W12 Lec 11 15 Law of Thermodynamics Greenhouse Effect Impacts I Results and summary energy balance changes A Review of last lecture B Effective forcings 1750 2000 p 63 C A transition scenario p ll68 CLIMATE39 PROPOSAL PUTS II A Possible Carbon Future p I79 PRACTICALLY AHEAD OF SACRIFCE John Tierney NYT 011712 Ill Current information on Impacts A Sea level rise B Ice melt C Extreme weather events WORLD AVERAGES 1 HDI 2 075 34 2 Per capita electricity consumption 2200 kWhpy 3 Per capita CO2 eq production 5 tonnes CO2eqpy THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT surface of the Earth 39 39 quot3939 r equiiIbriun1 no greenhouse Distribution of Solar Energy on the Earth Reflection 10 Micron Radiation Q2 LW A bdo H20 Evaporation Heating tslt1 Wind Waves amp Curren Photosynthesis ltlt1 M Three truths of climate change 1 CO2 and other trace greenhouse gases are rapidly increasing in the atmosphere as a direct result of human activity 2 These gases absorb the earth s waste heat in the form of infrared radiation and trap additional heat in the lower atmosphere This imposes a small change on the Earth s energy balance a forcing 3 Conservation of energy requires that climate must respond in some way to this change in energy Most likely the majority of this trapped heat will ultimately be stored in the earth s oceans c K 0 p g GLOBAL WARMING The Flood can arrive suddenly Relative Sea level changes in NorthWest England Sea level in meter 0 Ordnance Datum 5 Melting of the 10 39 Labrador icecap ca 7700 years ago 15 20 3 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 Years before today Global mean sea level evolution over the 20th and 21st centuries 200 Observations Projections 180 160 39 80 140 70 Trend 326 mmyear if E 6 60 120 39 E 50 A 2 E 100 4 2 g 30 lt1 G 5 80 5 E 20 0 D p I I I I I I I I I 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Date years 40 39 20 O 20 I I I I 551j 4 I I I I 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Time year R J Nicholls et al Science 328 15171520 2010 Global mean sea level evolution over the 20th and 21st centuries The red curve is based on tide gauge measurements Q The black curve is the altimetry record zoomed over the 19932009 time span 1 5 Projections for the the 21st century are also shown The shaded light blue zone represents IPCC AR4 projections for the AlFI greenhouse gas emission scenario Bars are semiempirical projections Several regions are vulnerable to coastal ooding caused by future relative or climateinduced sealevel rise At highest risk are coastal zones with dense populations low elevations appreciable rates of subsidence andor inadequate adaptive capacity g 39 73 x aor quotquot39 quot quot 7 39Cfamp f13 QM 1 quot 39397 e um W rr 3 2f gtlt a339fquotx L g 47 7T quotquotquotA quotquot 1 J quotquot T 39quot quot gt39 132 4 gt x J1 N 7iE T 3 E V 39 ff Pacific Ocean Indian Ocean 9 c Sma 39539a dS small islands quotquot39 39 39 s J n 39 in C L Vr Q39 xA 39 3939 396 g g quot V 39 3 V 3 4 T L 1 Vulnerable island region j Vulnerable coastal area R J Nicholls et al Science 328 15171520 2010 Published by AAAS Table 31 modified Beyond Smoke amp Mirrors p20 Removal time and percentage contribution to climate forcing of several greenhouse gases in the year 2000 includes GWP AScenario a possible transition to managed GHG Removal Approximate Greenhouse Gas Time Contribution GWP CO2 gt100 Years 60 1 Methane CH4 10 Years 25 23 Nitrous Oxide N20 100 Years 5 296 Tropospheric Ozone 50 days 20 Sulfate Aerosols 10 Years 30 Black Carbon 10 Years 20 ES115 Sustainable Energy amp The Environment W12 Lec 12 15 Law of Thermodynamics Extreme events amp Geoengineering Reading for 5th week GS CLIMATE PROPOSAL PUTS PRACTICALLY AHEAD OF SACRIFCE WSJ Climate Change Oped amp Response Geoengineering Ethics posted tonight I Review of last lecture ll Climate feedback loops Ill Extreme weather events IV Geoengineering A Definition amp history B Processes amp technologies C Summary D Key questions WORLD AVERAGES 1 HDI Q 075 34 2 Per capita electricity consumption 2200 kWhpy 3 Per capita CO2 eq production 5 tonnes CO2eqpy Extreme weather NAWRAL DISASTERS IN THE us Number of stomos forest res Climate scientists believe some modern weather extremes 39 200 39 d ood especially heat waves are linked to humancaused global droughts an S warming but for other extremes the evidence is less clear I Y 100 Q iIIImII Illlll we Percentage of the contiguous US with maximum temperatures much 7j June above Or WOW normal 1930 1990 2ooo 2010 SP 50 of the Dust Bowl US ABOVE NORMAL I TEMPERA runes 139 25 396 to A e t e Nov p 25 of the BELOW NORMAL us Cold wave or 1912 TEMP RA TURE5 39 I I I I 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Sources NOAA temperature extremes Insurance Information Institute Munich Re Extreme Weather FEEDBACK LOOPS e Increasing Goba Increased warming Iowclouds 9 CO2 Warmmg Wat VVaP0T n Q2 Q2 QQ L 099 Cools atm05Q Warms am Global Scale THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT Heat trapping gases in the atmosphere gradually warm up the earth s surface Solutions 2 00 0rbit 50000 mirrors each 39 miles square to deflect the sun s rays Intentional Climate Change ICC GEOENGINEERING SOLUTIONS TO CLIMATE CHANGE pg179 Place giant re ectors in orbit quot Grow 39 trees quoton fe iZati0n Shoot aerosols 1 3t39Caquoty of Sea to Stratosp ere H 15 39 engmeer W 7 u an fig 5 vi 0 crops quotIquot39 i g gg r 3S x kg U Greening of deserts Pump liquid 39 to rocks ES115 Sustainable Energy amp The Environment W12 Lec 14 15 Law of Thermodynamics Summary amp Review Reading for 5th week GS CLIMATE PROPOSAL PUTS PRACTICALLY AHEAD OF SACRIFCE WSJ Climate Change Qp ed amp Response Geoengineering Ethics Reading for 6th week WB Chapter 3 pp 127 SE Picky details pp 2627 I Pielke Observation Principe amp the Alternate Scenario the AScenario pll68 ll Concluding discussion on geoengineering A Summary B Processes amp technologies C Key questions Ill Exam discussion amp reviews WORLD AVERAGES 1 HDI A 075 34 2 Per capita electricity consumption 2200 kWhpy 3 Per capita CO2 eq production 5 tonnes CO2eqpy Pielke ObservationPrinciple When there s a conflict between policies that promote economic growth and policies restricting CO2 economic growth wins every time The cheapest way to remove CO2 from the air is to combust appropriately harvested biomass and capture and store the CO2 Baslc Photosynthesis Biomass C02 N2 CO N2 T Powerplant T 2 39 r separation carbon dioxide coz Overview of geological storage options 1 Depleted oil and gas reservoirs r 2 Use of CO2 in enhanced oil and gas recovery 3 Deep saline formationsa offshore b onshore 1 4 Use of C02 in enhanced coal bed methane recovery l i quotquotquotquotquotquotquotquot39 Produced oil or gas E uuuuuuuuuuuuuu up CO2 i E stored CO2 Carbon Storage Figural H Bubbling up The Wallender Eor1r1ar Br1rlIfrel 1 C fdriaven cnlldswaie gE iquot SEI 3lI1quot139llquot1E l39iquotl gE orl Wellenbnrr1 in wester Gvermany prnviides 1 natural illusitratinn of CD2 lealaiage tram genlegical sterage AJltlquotlrugh largelye harrnless mlquot leakage wmrld quotIe u11desira39ble in carljxnrr sequestration projects Fig 1 CD Storage options Options include oil and gas reservoirs deep formations that contain salt water and deep coal beds Sourrcez Fig TS 7 lPCC Special Report on Carbon Capture and Storage Geoengineering Intentional Climate Change ICC Intentional continental or global scale manipulation of the environment to offset global climate change GEOENGINEERING SOLUTIONS T0 CLIMATE CHANGE pg179 Global Scale EcoEngineering Pmegiam reflectors in orbit The Problem 4 Heat trapping gases int tmosphere 39 39 39 391 gradually warm up the e s surface g 1 Z 39 39 39 39 Shoot aerosols Iron fertilization i 4 Orbit 50000 t h mi omac Ofsea to stra osp are 1 miles square deflect the s i V l i i DS V L P P I I loose billions of cO BU Tamper with airplane Fire to engines 3039 t thte up i 39 39 39 era e u e Elquot mz g hvqmg e Q3 R shequot 399 quot quotquot sphere with a layer of t h H t gr dust quot3919 the soot which blocks sunlight 539 9 399 9 upper atmosphere Sll llght S to ate a su I htrefle 39 g H5 layer of parti Human aatiana that 7 Glimata N Glimata impact ahanga alimata 39 Sgratam I an human walfara Mitiatisan Gaaanginaaring daptati an orsu e ng ES115 Sustainable Energy amp The Environment W12 Lec 13 15 Law of Thermodynamics Extreme events amp Geoengineering Reading for 5th week GS CLIMATE PROPOSAL PUTS PRACTICALLY AHEAD OF SACRIFCE WSJ Climate Change Qp ed amp Response Geoengineering Ethics posted tonight I Pielke ObservationPrinciple II Geoengineering A Definition amp history B Processes amp technologies C Summary D Key questions III Ethics WORLD AVERAGES 1 HDI A 075 34 2 Per capita electricity consumption 2200 kWhpy 3 Per capita CO2 eq production 5 tonnes CO2eqpy Pielke ObservationPrinciple When there 3 a conflict between policies that promote economic growth and policies restricting CO2 economic growth wins every time Geoengineering Intentional continental or global scale manipulation of the environment to offset global climate change Climate Change Abatement Mitigation Technology Switch Energy Sources Improve Ef ciency CO2 capture amp storage with fossil carbon Surface Cloud Stratospheric Engineered albedo seeding Aerosols particles CCS with Iron biomass Fertilization Reforestation Sowent Altering Earth s Regeneration loops a39kaquotquotitV Kurt Zenz House The sensibility of these various schemes can be visualized in riskcost space Air CaptureSolvent regeneration Biomass CCS Z ii if a a as u A E a Pe I s Ju K 7 g ail lsuls H 1 Cost Kurt Zenz House Jamieson s Goal Jamieson intends to argue for the position that the moral permissibility of Intentional Climate Change ICC requires meeting several conditions which are currently not satisfied However research on ICC is permissible if other conditions are met Conditions for Permissibility Four proposed conditions 1 The project is technically feasible clearly not yetsa s ed 2 Its consequences can be predicted reliably 3 It would produce states that are socio economically preferable than to alternatives 4 Implementing the project would not seriously and systematically violate important well founded ethical principles or considerations 2 Reliable Prediction Problems of reliable prediction Pesticides 9 superbugs Nuclear Energy 9 waste disposal CFCs 9 ozone depletion Cognitive psychologists have determined that people are overconfident about their judgments In some cases greater expertise 9 greater overconfidenceq 2 Reliable Prediction We must be humble about our predictions There is reason to doubt that prediction can even be reliable Conclusion Condition 2 has yet to be satis ed 3 Social and Economic Preferability Climate change affects more than the economy Ways of life patterns of trade migration systems of international relations etc This affects all people and those in poorer countries more substantially than those in rich countries Who Benefits from ICC and how 4 Ethical Principles and Considerations Democratic Process Regardless of who wins or loses the process itself must be democratic Fundamental respect for human rights Is the United Nations which depends on the NationState system an appropriate vehicle for democratic process Are there any other alternatives or is this simply impossible 4 Ethical Principles and Considerations Living with Nature Environmental Problems Flow from Human Manipulation of Nature Although it is not possible to leave nature alone we err on the side of excessive intervention Technofixes have been the norm since the beginning of modern science with Francis Bacon s desire to dominate and torture l nature to give up her secrets We need a better attitude toward nature Research on ICC We may reach the point where ICC is the lesser of two evils We should know how to do ICC as effectively as possible if this happens Important Considerations Money invested in ICC cannot go to other threats humanity faces Money invested in ICC cannot go to alternative energy and other areas that could mitigate climate change Researching technology risks inappropriate development In a policy discussion dissenters can quickly be labeled 1uddHes Researchers are inevitably invested and biased in favor of their research which can negatively influence policy discussions eg James Franco E111 rm mrk E mr Algae Farm Aims to Turn Carbon Dioxide Into Fuel By MATTHEW L WALD Published June 28 2009 Dow Chemical and Algenol Biofuels a start up company are set to announce Monday that they will build a demonstration plant that if successful would use algae to turn carbon dioxide into ethanol as a vehicle fuel or an ingredient in plastics Because algae does not require any farmland or much space many energy companies are trying to use it to make commercial quantities of hydrocarbons for fuel and chemicals But harvesting the hydrocarbons has proved difficult so far The ethanol would be sold as fuel the companies said but Dow s long term interest is in using it as an ingredient for plastics replacing natural gas The process also produces oxygen which could be used to burn coal in a power plant cleanly said Paul Woods chief executive of Algenol which is based in Bonita Springs Fla The exhaust from such a plant would be mostly carbon dioxide which could be reused to make more algae We give them the oxygen we get very pure carbon dioxide and the output is very cheap ethanol said Mr Woods who said the target price was 1 a gallon Algenol grows algae in bioreactors troughs covered with exible plastic and filled with saltwater The water is saturated with carbon dioxide to encourage growth of the algae It looks like a long hot dog balloon Mr Woods said Dow a maker of specialty plastics will provide the balloon material The algae through photosynthesis convert the carbon dioxide and water into ethanol which is a hydrocarbon oxygen and fresh water The company has 40 bioreactors in Florida and as part of the demonstration project plans 3100 of them on a 24 acre site at Dow s Freeport Tex site Among the steps still being improved is the separation of the oxygen and water from the ethanol The Georgia Institute of Technology will work on that process as will Membrane Technology and Research a company in Menlo Park Calif The National Renewable Energy Laboratory an Energy Department lab will study carbon dioxide sources and their impact on the algae samples Algenol and its partners are planning a demonstration plant that could produce 100000 gallons a year The company and its partners were spending more than 50 million said Mr Woods but not all of that was going into the pilot plant The company had applied to the Energy Department for financing under the stimulus bill but would build a pilot plant with or without a grant he said With a stimulus grant he said the division of spending would be slightly more than 50 percent from the private sector although the normal level was 20 percent The project would create 300 jobs he said adding that Algenol and Dow were incredibly hopeful of getting the grant partly because they had a combination of an innovative start up company a major company with extensive experience in industrial processes a university and a national laboratory At Dow Peter A Molinaro a spokesman said that the ethanol was intriguing to us as a feedstock because the chemistry is simple Dow is already working on using ethanol from Brazilian sugar cane as a replacement for natural gas as an ingredient in plastics When Congress created a tax subsidy for ethanol it raised the price for nonfuel users like Dow he said We re looking at options and this is one he said BEYOND FOSSIL FUELS African Huts Far From the Grid Glow With Renewable Power Thanks to this solar panel Sara Ruto no longer takes a threehour taxi ride to a town with electricity to recharge her cellphone By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL The New York Times December 24 2010 KIPTUSURI Kenya For Sara Ruto the desperate yearning for electricity began last year with the purchase of her first cellphone a lifeline for receiving small money transfers contacting relatives in the city or checking chicken prices at the nearest market Charging the phone was no simple matter in this farming village far from Kenya39s electric grid Every week Ms Ruto walked two miles to hire a motorcycle taxi for the threehour ride to Mogotio the nearest town with electricity There she dropped off her cellphone at a store that recharges phones for 30 cents Yet the service was in such demand that she had to leave it behind for three full days before returning That wearying routine ended in February when the family sold some animals to buy a small Chinese made solar power system for about 80 Now balanced precariously atop their tin roof a lone solar panel provides enough electricity to charge the phone and run four bright overhead lights with switches quotMy main motivation was the phone but this has changed so many other things Ms Ruto said on a recent evening as she relaxed on a bench in the mud walled shack she shares with her husband and six ch dren As smallscale renewable energy becomes cheaper more reliable and more efficient it is providing the first drops of modern power to people who live far from slowgrowing electricity grids and fuel pipelines in developing countries Although dwarfed by the big renewable energy projects that many industrialized countries are embracing to rein in greenhouse gas emissions these tiny systems are playing an epic transformative role Since Ms Ruto hooked up the system her teenagers grades have improved because they have light for studying The toddlers no longer risk burns from the smoky kerosene lamp And each month she saves 15 in kerosene and battery costs and the 20 she used to spend on travel In fact neighbors now pay her 20 cents to charge their phones although that business may soon evaporate 63 families in Kiptusuri have recently installed their own solar power systems quotYou leapfrog over the need for fixed ines said Adam Kendall head of the subSaharan Africa power practice for McKinsey amp Company the global consulting firm quotRenewable energy becomes more and more important in less and less developed markets The United Nations estimates that 15 billion people across the globe still live without electricity including 85 percent of Kenyans and that three billion still cook and heat with primitive fuels like wood or charcoal There is no reliable data on the spread of offgrid renewable energy on a small scale in part because the projects are often installed by individuals or tiny nongovernmental organizations But Dana Younger senior renewable energy adviser at the International Finance Corporation the World Bank Ieieing Wiithu uit El tir l yf Cine liIquotl Iiee E E3Il E en the pilenet Iiee wittieet elieetrieity ger IereIIIgr llquotIIE I39EJIIIfEE the1rerer1eteeInneete21 Ere e irlizjl lquotE739a39EI llJji39 ewe jeeilitiee eth eem in luenaee the wee eeentriee ehepe Iliaeirwgmi ihfreetruetwe HEF39a393L5E i FGlquotli5ir ll5lu3939ilquotl E 33 I IEL 3ZE EH EH g HAITI 53 Group39s private lending arm said there was no question that the trend was accelerating quotIt39s a phenomenon that39s sweeping the world a huge number of these systems are being installed Mr Younger said With the advent of cheap solar panels and highefficiency LED lights which can light a room with just 4 watts of power instead of 60 these small solar systems now deliver useful electricity at a price that even the poor can afford he noted quotYou39re seeing herders in Inner Mongolia with solar cells on top of their yurts Mr Younger said In Africa nascent markets for the systems have sprung up in Ethiopia Uganda Malawi and Ghana as well as in Kenya said Francis Hillman an energy entrepreneur who recently shifted his Eritreabased business Phaesun Asmara from large solar projects financed by nongovernmental organizations to a greater emphasis on tiny rooftop systems In addition to these small solar projects renewable energy technologies designed for the poor include simple subterranean biogas chambers that make fuel and electricity from the manure of a few cows and quotmini hydroelectric dams that can harness the power of a local river for an entire village Yet while these offgrid systems have proved their worth the lack of an effective distribution network or a reliable way of financing the startup costs has prevented them from becoming more widespread quotThe big problem for us now is there is no business model yet said John Maina executive coordinator of Sustainable Community Development Services or Scode a nongovernmental organization based in Nakuru Kenya that is devoted to bringing power to rural areas Just a few years ago Mr Maina said quotsolar lights were merely basic lanterns dim and unreliable fiI22IIITlI I5iF HIZ 39I5i ES EIuIrnE Llraliel I le Iii39I5 lllE139E39lIFII39l39IIElquotn l Pa gaam PIE l39I 39quot I1IiEEi H39nquot1E393 l39IIZII Ell5 I39FMEQIZIIF Ei Pereentege ell j iI393939IpiIi li Ilil39quotIITE 1iIrit139imIt aIr39rEe5 t Electricity Heelete III E5 SE1 E 1 IlE fLlZ39a39I 39quot IEIlE lI I 5 quotFinally these products exist people are asking for them and are willing to pay he said quotBut we can39t get supply He said small African organizations like his do not have the purchasing power or connections to place bulk orders themselves from distant manufacturers forcing them to scramble for items each time a shipment happens to come into the country Part of the problem is that the new systems buck the traditional mold in which power is generated by a very small number of huge governmentowned companies that gradually extend the grid into rural areas Investors are reluctant to pour money into products that serve a dispersed market of poor rural consumers because they see the risk as too high quotThere are many small islands of success but they need to go to scale said Minoru Takada chief of the United Nations Development Program39s sustainable energy program quotOffgrid is the answer for the poor But people who control funding need to see this as a viable option Even United Nations programs and United States government funds that promote climatefriendly energy in developing countries hew to large projects like giant wind farms or industrialscale solar plants that feed into the grid A 300 million solar project is much easier to finance and monitor than 10 million homescale solar systems in mud huts spread across a continent As a result money does not flow to the poorest areas Of the 162 billion invested in renewable energy last year according to the United Nations experts estimate that 44 billion was spent in China India and Brazil collectively and 75 billion in the many poorer countries Only 6 to 7 percent of solar panels are manufactured to produce electricity that does not feed into the grid that includes systems like Ms Ruto s and solar panels that light American parking lots and football stadiums Still some new models are emerging Husk Power Systems a young company supported by a mix of private investment and nonprofit funds has built 60 village power plants in rural India that make electricity from rice husks for 250 hamlets since 2007 In Nepal and Indonesia the United Nations Development Program has helped finance the construction of very small hydroelectric plants that have brought electricity to remote mountain communities Morocco provides subsidized solar home systems at a cost of 100 each to remote rural areas where expanding the national grid is not cost effective What has most surprised some experts in the field is the recent emergence of a true market in Africa for homescale renewable energy and for appliances that consume less energy As the cost of reliable equipment decreases families have proved ever more willing to buy it by selling a goat or borrowing money from a relative overseas for example The explosion of cellphone use in rural Africa has been an enormous motivating factor Because rural regions of many African countries lack banks the cellphone has been embraced as a tool for commercial transactions as well as personal communications adding an incentive to electrify for the sake of recharging MPesa Kenya39s largest mobile phone money transfer service handles an annual cash flow equivalent to more than 10 percent of the country39s gross domestic product most in tiny transactions that rarely exceed 20 The cheap renewable energy systems also allow the rural poor to save money on candles charcoal batteries wood and kerosene quotSo there is an ability to pay and a willingness to pay said Mr Younger of the International Finance Corporation In another Kenyan village Lochorai Alice Wangui 45 and Agnes Mwaforo 35 formerly subsistence farmers now operate a booming business selling and installing energyefficient woodburning cooking stoves made of clay and metal for a cost of 5 Wearing matching bright orange tops and skirts they walk down rutted dirt paths with cellphones ever at their ears edging past goats and dogs to visit customers and to calm those on the waiting list Hunched over her new stove as she stirred a stew of potatoes and beans Naomi Muriuki 58 volunteered that the appliance had more than halved her use of firewood Wood has become harder to find and expensive to buy as the government tries to limit deforestation she added In Tumsifu a slightly more prosperous village of dairy farmers Virginia Wairimu 35 is benefiting from an underground tank in which the manure from her three cows is converted to biogas which is then pumped through a rubber tube to a gas burner quotI can just get up and make breakfastquot Ms Wairimu said The system was financed with a 400 loan from a demonstration project that has since expired In Kiptusuri the Firefly LED system purchased by Ms Ruto is this year39s musthave item The smallest one which costs 12 consists of a solar panel that can be placed in a window or on a roof and is connected to a desk lamp and a phone charger Slightly larger units can run radios and blackandwhite television sets Of course such systems cannot compare with a grid connection in the industrialized world A week of rain can mean no lights And items like refrigerators need more and more consistent power than a panel provides Still in Kenya even gridbased electricity is intermittent and expensive families must pay more than 350 just to have their homes hooked up quotWith this system you get a real light for what you spend on kerosene in a few months said Mr Maina of Sustainable Community Development Services quotWhen you can light your home and charge your phone that is very valuable A version of this article appeared in print on December 25 2010 on page A1 of the New York edition EliI rm mtk Efimrs Climate Change Seen as Threat to US Security By JOHN M BRODER Published August 8 2009 WASHINGTON The changing global climate will pose profound strategic challenges to the United States in coming decades raising the prospect of military intervention to deal with the effects of violent storms drought mass migration and pandemics military and intelligence analysts say Such climate induced crises could topple governments feed terrorist movements or destabilize entire regions say the analysts experts at the Pentagon and intelligence agencies who for the first time are taking a serious look at the national security implications of climate change Recent war games and intelligence studies conclude that over the next 20 to 30 years vulnerable regions particularly sub Saharan Africa the Middle East and South and Southeast Asia will face the prospect of food shortages water crises and catastrophic ooding driven by climate change that could demand an American humanitarian relief or military response An exercise last December at the National Defense University an educational institute that is overseen by the military explored the potential impact of a destructive ood in Bangladesh that sent hundreds of thousands of refugees streaming into neighboring India touching off religious con ict the spread of contagious diseases and vast damage to infrastructure It gets real complicated real quickly said Amanda J Dory the deputy assistant secretary of defense for strategy who is working with a Pentagon group assigned to incorporate climate change into national security strategy planning Much of the public and political debate on global warming has focused on finding substitutes for fossil fuels reducing emissions that contribute to greenhouse gases and furthering negotiations toward an international climate treaty not potential security challenges But a growing number of policy makers say that the world s rising temperatures surging seas and melting glaciers are a direct threat to the national interest If the United States does not lead the world in reducing fossil fuel consumption and thus emissions of global warming gases proponents of this view say a series of global environmental social political and possibly military crises loom that the nation will urgently have to address This argument could prove a fulcrum for debate in the Senate next month when it takes up climate and energy legislation passed in June by the House Lawmakers leading the debate before Congress are only now beginning to make the national security argument for approving the legislation Senator John Kerry the Massachusetts Democrat who is the chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee and a leading advocate for the climate legislation said he hoped to sway Senate skeptics by pressing that issue to pass a meaningful bill Mr Kerry said he did not know whether he would succeed but had spoken with 30 undecided senators on the matter He did not identify those senators but the list of undecided includes many from coal and manufacturing states and from the South and Southeast which will face the sharpest energy price increases from any carbon emissions control program I ve been making this argument for a number of years Mr Kerry said but it has not been a focus because a lot of people had not connected the dots He said he had urged President Obama to make the case too Mr Kerry said the continuing con ict in southern Sudan which has killed and displaced tens of thousands of people is a result of drought and expansion of deserts in the north That is going to be repeated many times over and on a much larger scale he said The Department of Defense s assessment of the security issue came about after prodding by Congress to include climate issues in its strategic plans specifically in 2oo8 budget authorizations by Hillary Rodham Clinton and John W Warner then senators The department s climate modeling is based on sophisticated Navy and Air Force weather programs and other government climate research programs at NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration The Pentagon and the State Department have studied issues arising from dependence on foreign sources of energy for years but are only now considering the effects of global warming in their long term planning documents The Pentagon will include a climate section in the Quadrennial Defense Review due in February the State Department will address the issue in its new Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review The sense that climate change poses security and geopolitical challenges is central to the thinking of the State Department and the climate office said Peter Ogden chief of staff to Todd Stern the State Department s top climate negotiator Although military and intelligence planners have been aware of the challenge posed by climate changes for some years the Obama administration has made it a central policy focus A changing climate presents a range of challenges for the military Many of its critical installations are vulnerable to rising seas and storm surges In Florida Homestead Air Force Base was essentially destroyed by Hurricane Andrew in 1992 and Hurricane Ivan badly damaged Naval Air Station Pensacola in 2oo4 Military planners are studying ways to protect the major naval stations in Norfolk Va and San Diego from climate induced rising seas and severe storms Another vulnerable installation is Diego Garcia an atoll in the Indian Ocean that serves as a logistics hub for American and British forces in the Middle East and sits a few feet above sea level Arctic melting also presents new problems for the military The shrinking of the ice cap which is proceeding faster than anticipated only a few years ago opens a shipping channel that must be defended and undersea resources that are already the focus of international competition Ms Dory who has held senior Pentagon posts since the Clinton administration said she had seen a sea change in the military s thinking about climate change in the past year These issues now have to be included and wrestled with in drafting national security strategy she said The National Intelligence Council which produces government wide intelligence analyses finished the first assessment of the national security implications of climate change just last year It concluded that climate change by itself would have significant geopolitical impacts around the world and would contribute to a host of problems including poverty environmental degradation and the weakening of national governments The assessment warned that the storms droughts and food shortages that might result from a warming planet in coming decades would create numerous relief emergencies The demands of these potential humanitarian responses may significantly tax US military transportation and support force structures resulting in a strained readiness posture and decreased strategic depth for combat operations the report said The intelligence community is preparing a series of reports on the impacts of climate change on individual countries like China and India a study of alternative fuels and a look at how major power relations could be strained by a changing climate We will pay for this one way or another Gen Anthony C Zinni a retired Marine and the former head of the Central Command wrote recently in a report he prepared as a member of a military advisory board on energy and climate at CNA a private group that does research for the Navy We will pay to reduce greenhouse gas emissions today and we ll have to take an economic hit of some kind Or we will pay the price later in military terms he warned And that will involve human lives 6L SCIN E19 EJL l Iquot 8 IN FOCUS BURYING THE PROBLEM I Could pumping carbon dioxide into the ground forestall global zuarrning Po n December world leaders gathered in Kyoto japan to grapple with the growing threat of p H global warming caused bylthe burning of fossil fuels To combat the surge in greenhouse gases chiefly carbon dioxide researchers and policymakers have called for energy conservation taxes on carbon emissions and thelswift development of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power Still with nuclear energy out of favor and no easy replace ment for fossil fuels on the horizon the rise in atmo spheric carbon dioxide might appear unstoppable But a growing number of scientists are pointing out that another means of combating greenhouse warming may be at hand onelthat deals with the problem rather directly put the carbon back where it came from into the earth The idea of somehow sequestering carbon is not new One method is simply to grow more trees which take carbon from the atmosphere and convert it to woody matter Al though the extent of plantings would have to be enormous William R Moomaw a physical chemist at Tufts University estimates that 10 to 15 percent of the carbon dioxide prob lem could be solved in this way Other scientists engineers and energy planners advocate placing the carbon where it does not contact the atmosphere at all Howard j Herzog of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology for instance proposes pumping carbon dioxide News and Aimlysis of carbon dioxide need not always waft upward into the deep ocean Although that tactic might be viewed as exchanging one form of pollution for another there are good reasons to consider making the trade The ocean contains at least 50 times more carbon than the atmosphere does so adding the carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels to the sea would have a proportionally smaller effect Advocates of this x also point out that much of the car bon dioxide now released finds its way into the ocean any way disturbing the chemistry of the surface waters Purpose fully placing it at greater depth should do less harm because hundreds of years would elapse before the dissolved carbon dioxide mixed back toward the surface a delay that would buffer the otherwise sudden rise to worrisome levels Herzog and others will soon perform tests perhaps off Hawaii to in SCIENTIFIC AMERICANquot January 1998 21 ANDREW MOI BROOKE liaison 39nmmm39orml vestigate how piping carbon dioxide into the deep ocean af fects that realm Rather than sequestering carbon dioxide in the sea other researchers argue the carbon should be returned to the ground Many natural gas deposits already contain huge quantities of carbon dioxide So it is unlikely that pumping in more would harm the subterranean environment And petroleum engi neers arqalready well versed in the mechanics of this opera tion For years oil companies have taken carbon dioxide from underground deposits and injected it into deep seated forma tions to aid in flushing oil from dwindling reservoirs Al though such efforts to enhance recovery normally cycle the carbon dioxide back to the surface one could presumably permanently park the carbon dioxide in suitable formations for example depleted natural gas elds Some petroleum compa nies are banking on that premise For example the largest Norwegian oil con cern Statoil is now com pleting an offshore facility to separate carbon dioxide from the natural gas it extracts from one field under the North Sea Making up 9 percent of the gas there this carbon dioxide constitutes an irksome contaminant Rather than vent the un wanted gas Statoil will re turn it to a nearby under ground formation and avoid having to pay the Norwegian carbon tax on its release Even more dramatic plans are in the works for a huge natural gas eld near the In donesian island of Natuna Because nearly three quarters of the gas in that deposit is carbon dioxide the developers Mobil Exxon and the In donesian state oil company have decided that they will put this greenhouse gas immediately back underground Other wise exploiting the Natuna field would add about one half of 1 percent to the carbon dioxide produced globally by the combustion of fossil fue1s an enormous contribution for a single source 39 But perhaps the prime example that could serve as the tem plate for combating global warming with sequestration comes from the Great Plains Gasi cation Plant That North Dakota facility a spinoff of the US government s former synthetic fuels program now converts coal to gas methane a fuel considered relatively benign because it contains less carbon per unit of energy Carbon that was originally in the coal will soon be piped over the border to Canada as compressed car bon dioxide to be used for enhanced oil recovery in Saskat chewan s Weyburn Field Such separation of carbon from coal and injection as car bon dioxide into the ground may prove especially relevant to developing nations such as India and China which will surely want to exploit their large coal reserves into the next century China alone has more than 10 percent of the world s supply But using such deposits need not transfer all that fossil car 22 SCIENTIFICAMERICAN lanuaryl998 PETROLEUM FIELDS might serve as a place to put excess carbon bon to the atmosphere if these countries convert the coal to cleaner fuels methane or methanol and sequester the left over carbon dioxide Eventually these and other countries could stop releasing 39 carbon entirely One idea first advanced by Dutch workers in 1939 would be applicable to socalled integrated coal gasi cation combinedcycle power plants Wim C Turken burg of Utrecht University explains what he and his col leagues proposed Oxygen added to the coal would form an intermediate gas mixture that would then be converted to hy drogen and carbon dioxide at high pressure by reacting it with water vapor The hydrogen could be burned to generate electricity and the carbon dioxide could be separated and se questered underground Turkenburg says that the increase in production costs would be about 30 percentquot whereas previ ous estimates for removing carbon dioxide from the flue gases of a conventional pow er plant had promised to double the price of electricity Robert H Williams of Princeton University39s Center for Energy and Environmen tal Studies was particularly struck by the Dutch idea In effect what they were doing was making hydrogen out of coal Williams who in 1989 had just written a book about producing hydrogen from so lar energy still looks forward to a hydrogenbased econo my but his thinking about the prospects for generating this fuel has since shifted For most of the next century I think that hydrogen will be produced from carbonaceous feedstocks Williams opines Producing hydrogen in that way is in fact going on today and on a large scale About 5 percent of the natural gas in the US is routinely converted to hydrogen for use by petrochemical industries or for making fertilizer Such production could presumably expand rapidly were hydrogen ever desired to run fuelcell powered vehicles or electrical generating stations The prospects for decarbonizing fossil fuels are certainly E U E lt C ct III x Ill 1 39 promising But the difficulties in handling large quantities of carbon dioxide safely the gas though nontoxic can cause asphyxiation and the costs of separation and sequestration will be dif cult to judge until further projects test the practi cality and economics of this approach One attempt to do so may begin as early as 2001 in Norway where a tax of 53 per ton of carbon dioxide released provides good incentive to pursue alternatives 39 Such efforts which would need to involve the oil and petro chemical industries in planning and execution will surely 39 blur the lines usually drawn in debates about how best to ad dress increasing carbon dioxide and the threat of global warm ing So it may take people on all sides of the issue a while to get comfortable with the notion that fossil fuels if exploited properly could continue to service society without threaten ing to change the climate Daw39d Schneider News and Analysis China Insists That Its Steps on Climate Be Voluntary By EDWARD WONG and JONATHAN ANSFIELD Published January 29 2010 BEIJING As a Sunday target date approaches for countries tosubmit to the United Nations their plans for ghting climate change China is banding together with other major developing nations to stress that only the wealthier countries need to make internationally binding commitments So while China the world s largest emitter of greenhouse gases might put down in writing its targets for slowing the growth of emissions it will make clear that those efforts are voluntary steps it plans to take domestically that should not imply a binding international commitment The distinction re ects China s strong desire to cast climate change policy as a sovereignty issue in the aftermath of rancorous negotiations last month at the environmental summit meeting in Copenhagen It says developed nations which emitted carbon dioxide without restriction over many decades of industrialization cannot force developing countries to submit to international policies or regulations China is standing by targets it announced before Copenhagen but previous climate change treaties say targets of developing countries are not internationally binding said Pan J iahua an economics professor who advises the Chinese negotiating team quotOn this China will stand rmquot This position could draw further criticisms from Western politicians who already blame China for weakening the nal accord at Copenhagen In the United States Congress the chances that lawmakers will pass climate legislation this year are slim in part because some lawmakers say China and India where carbon emissions are rising the fastest are giving much higher priority to maintaining economic growth than to ghting climate change But even as China sticks to tough diplomatic language environmental advocates say it is forging ahead with its own plans to become more carbonef cient This week China unveiled a new agency the National Energy Commission headed by Prime Minister Wen J iabao to coordinate energy policy In December Chinanow considered a leader in developing renewable energy technology put more pressure on companies connected to the electric grid to hook up to renewable energy sources like wind and solar power generators The United Nations said that by Jan 31 countries should approve the Copenhagen Accord and append their own goals for cutting carbon emissions or slowing emissions growth by 2020 American of cials have said that they will inscribe a provisional pledge announced byPresident Obama last November that the United States will cut carbon emissions by 17 percent below 2oo5 levels by 2020 pending action by Congress Other nations demand bolder American cuts China India Brazil and South Africa said in New Delhi this week that they would present the United Nations with their voluntary plans on climate change Voluntary is the operative word the countries want to stress that only developed nations should have binding responsibilities to ght climate change A very big deal is the extent to which you re doing this voluntarily said Kenneth Lieberthal a China scholar at the Brookings Institution in Washington You ve got to make clear this isn t an international obligation and that you re doing this because you re a good guy To make the divide even clearer the four countries called for an early ow of an annual 10 billion promised at Copenhagen to help developing nations combat climate change Wealthy nations should begin handing over the money rst to small island nations and African countries as proof of their commitment the four major developing nations said in a statement China appears to be emphasizing rich nations obligations on that now partly because Chinese of cials felt ambushed at Copenhagen especially over Western demands that China submit to an international system for monitoring and verifying emissions cuts China is also worried about losing the support of smaller developing nations because some of them rejected China s positions at Copenhagen This month when Yang J iechi the Chinese foreign minister visited Africa he made ChinaAfrica cooperation on climate change a priority in talks I think that the Chinese de nitely feel quite beaten up in Copenhagen said Yang Ailun the climate and energy campaign manager at Greenpeace China and what s quite worrying is that there was a sense among the Chinese of cials that Well maybe we should just come to focus on our own domestic energy and domestic issues The government s lead negotiator Su Wei said at a Chinese academic forum in December that the United States and European countries had played tricks in Copenhagen to heap pressure on China according to a governmentrun Web site At the climate talks frustration by the Chinese burst into the open when Xie Zhenhua the top Chinese climate of cial yelled and wagged his nger at Mr Obama say conference attendees Mr Wen the prime minister told the interpreter to ignore Mr Xie s remarks a sign of the discord that attendees said plagued the Chinese ranks Chinese of cials were ill prepared to offer any concessions They had gone to Copenhagen thinking that other nations would be satis ed with the announcement that China planned to cut carbon emissions per unit of economic growth so called carbon intensity by 40 to 45 percent below 2oo5 levels by 2020 China and India have long rejected pledging to cut absolute emissions Instead they promise they can slow the growth of emissions while sustaining booming economies Cutting carbon intensity will not reduce China s emissions some analysts predict emissions could grow by up to 90 percent from 2oo5 to 2020 Chinese of cials insist the carbon intensity cut will require ambitious measures But Michael A Levi a climate change expert at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York said China s carbon intensity goal did not deviate greatly from what he called business as usual reductions likely to occur under policies already put in place by 2009 The effort is important he said but does not indicate any new decision to fundamentally change course in the future Some environmentalists have praised China s goal and say China will have to make great efforts to achieve it Barbara Finamore who heads the China program at the Natural Resources Defense Council based in Washington said the fact that China put in place relatively progressive policies before Copenhagen did not mean those policies should be considered business as usual At Copenhagen China also conceded at the nal session to language that would require countries to report their carbon reduction numbers for international analysis Earlier in December in Beijing President Hu J intao trumpeted China s opposition to stringent international monitoring calling it a vital interest on which China would not compromise said an editor at a Communist Party newspaper John M Broder contributed reporting from Washington Z16 Coal red Power Plants for the Future Existing plants can be improved to generate electricity more cleanly and economically Future plants incorporating technologies expressly developed to minimize both costs and emissions will do even better by Richard E Balzhiser and Kurtquot E Yeager he invention of the incandes I cent light bulb by Thomas A Edison in 1879 created a de mand for a cheap readily available fuel with which to generate large amounts of electric power Coal seemed to fit the bill and it fueled the earliest power stations which were set up at the end of the 19th century by Edison himself As more power plants were constructed throughout the country the reliance on coal in creased Since World War I coal red power plants have accounted for about halfof the electricity produced in the US each year in 1986 such plants had a combined generating ca pacity of 289000 megawatts and con sumed 83 percent of the nearly 900 million tons of coal mined in the country that year Given the uncer tainty in the future growth of nuclear power and in the supply of oil and natural gas coal red power plants could well provide up to 70 percent of the electric power in the US by the end ofthe century Yet in spite of the fact that coal has long been a source of electricity and may remain one for many years coal represents about 80 percent of US fossilfuel reserves it has actually never been the most desirable fossil fuel for power plants Coal contains less energy per unit of weight than natural gas or oil it is difficult to transport and it is associated with a host of environmental issues among them acid rain Since the late 196039s problems of emission control and waste disposal have sharply reduced the appeal of coalfired power plants The cost of ameliorating these envi ronmental problems along with the rising cost of building a facility as large and complex as a coalfired power plant have also made such 100 plants less attractive from a purely economic perspective Changes in the technological base of coalfired power plants could re store their attractiveness however Whereas some of these changes are evolutionary and are intended main ly to increase the productivity of ex isting plants completely new tech nologies for burning coal cleanly are also being developed These technol ogies seek to make costeffective en vironmental control exibility in the type of coal burned and reduced con struction time inherent features of fu ture coalfired power plants To appreciate the signi cance of such advances in coalcombus tion technology a brief review of the operation of a conventional coal fired power plant is in order A mod em power plant burns coal in a boil er a huge boxshaped vessel whose inner walls contain tubes in which water is converted into steam The coal is nely ground before it is in jected into the boiler so that it burns with the high efficiency of a combus tible gas A typical large boiler con sumes S00 tons of pulverized coal ev ery hour in order to produce 64 mil lion pounds of steam enough to generate a million kilowatthours of electricity At the same time the boil er gives off about 35 million cubic feet of ue gas or exhaust The steam passes through a super heater where its temperature and pressure are increased before it drives a highpressure turbine The rotation of the turbine shaft provides the mechanical energy that is con verted into electricity by a generator To increase the overall energycom version ef ciency the steam leaving the turbine is usually reheated and sent back to drive one or two lower pressure steam turbines before it is cooled condensed and pumped as water to the boiler to begin the cycle once again 39 In addition to coalfeed mecha nisms boilers turbines condensers pumps and generators power plants also depend on elaborate cooling emissioncontrol and wastehandling systems All these main and adjunct systems must be designed to operate at high reliability for a lifetime of 40 39 or more years under load conditions that may vary daily between 20 per cent of the plant39s design capacity and its maximum poweroutput The capital costs of the equipment in a typical 1000megawatt plant can eas ily exceed SI billion The efficiency with which the heat released from the burning of coal is converted into electricity which was as low as 5 percent before 1900 had reached about 40 percent by 1967 in other words in the space of about 70 years an eightfold reduction in coal consumption per unit of generated electricity was achieved This prog ress was reflected in the cost of a kilo watt of new generating capacity in 1920 it was about 350 in 1967 doi lars and in 1967 it had dropped to 130 The cost of residential electric ity service also dropped from more than 25 cents per kilowatthour to two cents per kilowatthour over the same period Beginning in the 196039s however the pace of improvement began to slow This trend suggested that con ventional powerplant designs had approached the inherent limits set by the laws of thermodynamics and the properties of the materials from which boilers and steam turbines were made By the 197039s the dimin 1511318 technical returns were also Joi ed by new economic and insti tutional forces namely rapidly esca laling Capital costs slow growth 01quot demand stricter emissioncontrol re quirements and extended licensinit and construction schedules The re sult has been an abrupt end to the historic trend of declining real cost for electricity from coal indeed a kil owatt of new generating capacity costs more today tin constant dol lars than It did In I920 rs easures to control gaseous liq uid and solid wastes M66 had the greatest impact on the us of coalfired power plants in the pl539t 20 yearsquotquotA new plant pou39lWIquotcori trol systems now account oil as much as 40 percent at the copihl out lay and 35 percent ul opeuzmnal costs The most techntcaiiy and eco nomic3llyvBlbe element of mis sion control in today39s pulverized coal plants is the fluegas desulfu rization system often called a wet scrubber The scrubber removes the oxides of sulfur that are a major gas eous pollutant resulting from the burning of coal Wet scrubbing is a simple concept but is difficult and expensive to car ry out in practicequot An alkaline sub stance usually lime or limestone is mixed with water to form a slurry that is sprayed into the flue gas The sulfur oxides in the flue gas are ab sorbed by the slurry and precipitate out of the liquid as inert calcium sul te or calcium sulfate EYEisum Gyp sum if it is pure enough can be easi ly disposed of or sold as a building material Alternative but more ex pensive scrubbing systems are able to transform the precipitates into sul furic acid or elemental sulfur which can then be sold on the chemical market at a higher price Scrubbers have been required on all pulver izedcoal power plants whose con struction began after 1978 As a re sult the US electricutility industry is operating more wetscrubber sys tems today than the rest of the world combined in a new plant the scrubber typical ly costs between 150 and 200 for each kilowatt of generating capaci ty Because of the difficulty in tting scrubbers into old power plants not originally designed to accommodate them a scrubber for an existing plant costs between 10 and 40 percent more than a scrubber for a new plant assuming that the installation goes smoothly Regardless of the age of the plant the cost of operating the scrubber is high Scrubbers create huge amounts of sludge waste that must be put in holding ponds and land lls constituting an environ i 39 coou IVA DU0NIIMto39 PL NT of the Southern Cali Ceuaunr converts 1000 0 of coal daily mm a cleanbtrmi gllbllslloll products drive a gastur en l39l 39 quotn 39 in H1 exhaust from the gas tur bine then produces steam that drives a steamturbine generator The aerial photograph shows the plant39s two coalstorage silos middle the gasilier facility gascooling system and electricity generating equipment extend from the silos to the lower right 101 COOLING TOWER CONDENSER CONDENSATE PUMP N K 239 GENERATOR t ii i HIGHPRESSUR Q sTtAr 1 1 LOW lNTERMEDlATE PRESSURE PRESSURE STEAM STEAM FEEDWATER HEATE REHEATER Rs FEED PUMP ELECTROSTATIC PRECIPITATOR v 1 39 I I r39n quotV fJ umrsroue 1 1 WATER L LN BOILER FAN PROCESSLIQUOR RETURN SLURRY 5 x c BLEED TO nucxsnsn quot quots 39 CALCIUM SULFATE 5 OR SULFITE TYPICAL CONVENTIONAL PIANT bums pulverized coal in a clpltator collects dust particles from the ue gas by channeling boiler to produce steam which then drives a set of turbines con the gas between charged electrodes and grounded plates The nected to a generator The steam is then condensed and recycled particles acquire a charge from the electrodes as they pass by through the boiler Much of the other equipment at the plant is and are attracted to the plates Next a uegas desulfurization Intended to remove pollutants from the line gas or boiler ex system known as a wet scrubber green extracts most of the haust before it is released into the air First an electrostatic pre oxides of sulfur from the gas This is generally achieved by 102 3 39 RTER H SPRAY PUMP mun I50 F3 539 mint ith a sin ea music kdtlunt urbunatei and u1 Q5 NP KI with the giy quot5quot 110118 consisting of cube 93 Will or calcium sulfate which 393 539 H 39 quot quot398 material mental side effect in itself A 1000 megawatt power plant that burns coal with a sulfur content of 3 per cent for example produces enough sludge in one year to cover about a square mile to a depth of one foot wetscrubbing systems also re quire large amounts of water about l000 gallons per minute for a 1000 megawatt plant and they often suf ier from plugging and fouling of equipment and corrosion of duct i390l39k These problems add to operat ing costs and reduce the overall reli ability of the system Finally scrub bers extract a penalty of between 3 and 8 percent of the power plant39s en ergy output simply to run pumps and fans and to reheat the ue gas in or der to prevent corrosive condensa tion in the chimney The widespread implementation of zcrubber technology in the US has not been easy or cheap The reliabil ity of early units was considerably less than that of the power plant as a whole hence they required compo nents that were either redundant or had been engineered with large mar gins of tolerance Some of the dif cul ties associated with the installation and operation of scrubbers can be at tributed to the fact that the technol tigy was prematurely brought up to commercial scale Only now after a quartercentury of experience have scrubbers approached an acceptable level of reliability Coalfired power plants have be come more expensive to build not only because of emissioncontrol systems but also because construc tion costs themselves have skyrock eted Even after adjusting for infla tion new coal red generating ca pacity is three times as expensive today as it was in 1970 Over the past 15 years the economies of scale that are to be gained from constructing large plants have been offset by large cost increases in part the increases reflect the high cost of nancing pro longed construction delays The experience of Japanese utility companies demonstrates how big a difference construction delays can make Japanese utilities typically deal more expeditiously than their American counterparts with the vari ous regulatory and nancial issues that often delay large construction projects Whereas the Japanese are able to bring power plants on line in from 3395 to 40 months American com panies generally require from 50 to 60 months for plants of similar de sign Consequently the cost of a sin gle new large generating unit is com parable to the total assets of many US electric utilities Utilities are therefore seeking to re duce the costs by turning to smaller modulargenerating units which can be transported to the sites of existing power plants and rapidly installed there to keep pace with the growth of demand Because such units can be brought on line quickly their capital cost can be recovered faster even if the rate base remains constant in stalling new units only when new ca pacity is needed can result in a net saving of as much as 200 per kilo watt in spite of the fact that smaller units sacri ce economies of scale As an alternative to building new generating capacity utilities havequot been refurbishing old plants to im prove their performance and extend their lifetime This strategy is certain ly less costly than building a new plant The trend is reinforced by the fact that plants now completing three decades of service are not obsolete In some cases they may even be more efficient than new plants since they are not burdened by scrubbers indeed older plants are becoming a larger fraction of our total electricity generating capacity in 1970 only 2 percent of US generating capacity was more than three decades old By the end of the century 30 years will be the average age of a coal red power plant 39 Utilities are also looking at ways to lower operating costs Early warn ing of the deterioration of critical sys tem components is essential to pre vent the loss of generating capacity Hence the continuous monitoring for incipient failure is becoming an im portant part of maintenance proce dures Such monitoring keeps track of the natural processes of wear cor rosion and erosion making it possi ble for plant operators to institute corrective measures in time to avoid forced electricity outages The value of such efforts can be appreciated by recognizing the fact that an idled 1000megawatt coal red plant may cost the utility as much as 1 million for every day it is out of service largely because the electricity must be bought from other more costly sources 39 Escalating costs for the transporta tion and handling of coal as well as for ash disposal have also made the quality of coal determined from its content of moisture sulfur and other minerals an important consideration in improving plant performance Al though lowquality coal may well be cheaper per ton than highquality coal more of it must be burned to generate the same amount of elec tricity The cost of shipping a greater volume of lowquality coal may off set the cheaper price Low quality coal typically generates more waste than higherquality coal leading to higher costs for waste disposal Final ly the composition of lowquality coal is more variable than that of the better grades making it difficult to quottunequot a plant39s systems to achieve the greatest possible ef ciency the systems have to be adjusted to cope with the worst quality of coal expect ed in a load Existing plants can improve the coal or at least maintain a uniform quality by removing some of the im purities such as sulfurcontaining minerals before the coal is burned This is done at facilities that crush the quotdirtyquot coal and then separate the coal from the mineral impurities by virtue of differences in specific gravity or other physical properties in spite of such measures for im proving the performance of existing coalfired plants the US may still need 150000 megawatts or more of additional generating capacity by the end of the century if demand for electricity grows at the projected annual rate of 23 percent To main tain the competitiveness of coal in such an expanding energy market utilities will have to adopt coalbum ing technologies that are more cost effective than conventional ones in three key areas pollution control construction and performance here are a dozen or more ad vanced technologies under de velopment for burning coal cleanly and efficiently Two of the more promising are fluidizedbed combus Lion mic and coal gasi cation in a typical l BC coal boiler crushed coal is quotfluidizedquot along with bits of lime stone by supporting the particles on I00 PARTICULATES 90 F SULFUR OXIDES NITROGEN OXIDES AQUEOUS DISCHARGE SOLID WASTE 30 F E 70 is 3 o 2 3 g 60l E U D 2 E 35 sol E 3 1 at o 395 O 6 40 I o E E 2 Ci at 30 35 O 20 L I0 0 39 i 1 g l I Q l 0 I900 91 0 I920 I930 I940 I950 I960 1970 1930 I987 COST OF CONTROLLING powerplant emissions and waste products as a percentage of the total plant cost black has increased in step with the percentage of the emissions or waste brought under control color The pollutioncontrol systems mandated by reg ulatory agencies now account for between 30 and 40 percent of the total cost of a plant 104 a strong rising current of air The flu idized particles act as if they were in a boiling liquid that is they mix tur bulently ensuring a very efficient combustion process Because boiler tubes are in direct contact with the uidized particles an FBC boiler can absorb much of the heat by conduc tion which is more efficient than the radiant and convective heat transfer a conventional boiler relies on The greater surface area for heat transfer offered by the tubes in the fluidized bed also enables an FBC boiler to operate at lower tempera tures than a conventional pulver izedcoal boiler does thereby mini mizing the formation of oxides of nitrogen Whereas the temperature in a conventional boiler may reach 3000 degrees Fahrenheit in an FBC boiler it generally ranges between 1450 and 1600 degrees Moreover the limestone mixed with the coal captures 90 percent or more of the sulfur released from the coal during combustion because the lower oper ating temperature promotes the reac tion between limestone and sulfur that produces calcium sul te or sul fate FBC tackles the pollutants pro duced by burning coal where they are formed in the furnace FBC boiler design and operation are also less sensitive to variations in coal quality The large amounts of melted ash that result when low quality coal is burned in a pulver izedcoal boiler often foul heatex change surfaces reducing the boil er39s efficiency and reliability In an rec boiler however coal is burned at temperatures below the melting point of ash avoiding the problem Because an FBC plant operator can afford to buy lower quality coal he can in some instances substantially reduce operating costs FBC technology also lends itself to the design of small boilers that can be prefabricated as modular units It is estimated that a plant built from com pact pressurized FBC boilers could require between 10 and 20 percent less investment capital than conven tional plants having the same total generating capacity The savings re sult from a reduced construction time and better capacity to expand the plant in response to an uncertain growth in the demand for electricity planning is also made easier by the knowledge that these compact units can be installed quickly whenever the need arises An I BC boiler could also be add ed to an existing plant for a rap CONVECTION r LIMESTONE BUNKER COAL BUNKER lNBED sum 39J HEATER 1 runes AIR onsmauroa 4 AIR DUCT ms ti 9 p2 smrrrn V J h COALLIMESTONE FEED FLUIDIZEDBED COMBUSTION PIC of coal reduces the need for adjunct emissioncontrol systems in an rsc boiler a bed of crushed coal and limestone is suspended by a blast of air that fluldizes or agitates the bed particles so that they behave as if they were in a boiling liquid The turbulent mixing ensures that the coal is thoroughly burned and that the limestone reacts CYCLONE ousr COLLECTOR I RECYCLE METEmNc DEVICE HlGH TEMPERATURE STEA with combustion gases and thereby captures 90 percent or more of the sulfur oxides Because boiler tubes are in direct contact with the uidized bed steam can be produced more ef ciently in rat boilers than in conventional pulverizedcoal boilers An rec boiler also operates at a lower temperature avoiding the melting of ash and reducing the formation of nitrogen oxides 39 COALWATER EXHAUST 39 1 SLURRY WASTEHEAT 0 BOILER F K oxvcsn SIAG COAL GASIFICATION can be accompli hed by heating a coal W311 SlIl39l39Y in an oxygen atmosphere The process yields a fuel gas composed mainly of carbon monoxide and hydrogen After he Sis has been cooled cleansed of solid particles and rid of 106 STEAM TURBINE mt CENERATOR CONDENSER quotquot 7 COMBUSTlON 39 C A39 BER COMPRESSOR T 3 LcAstruER quotquot5i1391quot 39 39 J quot39 quot39quot 5quot GENERATOR GAS TURBINE SULFURREMOVAL TANK v STEAM SCRUBBER L 2 2 sulfur it can be burned to drive gas turbines and then produce steam for a steam turbine an arrangement called a combined cv cle An integrated gasi cationcombinedCvIle plant emits few er pollutants Into the air than conventional coal red plants do quot y P If 339 39quoto tkg lflqgl11 39 4 ld indr ase in generaiing capacity indeed the Northern States Power Company has converted an existing coal red boiler in at Minnesota plant 39 into an FBC boiler The objective is to increase generating capacity by to percent Increase fuel llexibility the boiler can bum even municipal re fuse control etnissions more thor oughly and extend the plant39s operat lng life to at least 50 years Over the past IS years the technol ogy of power plants that rely solely on I BC boilers has iId39t39l39l39Cl lrom Small test and pilotplant tacilitits to large demonstration plants quotI he l39en nessee Valley Authority the Duke Power Company and the Common wealth oflentucky are building such a plant with a generating capacity of 150 megawatts the tiloradtiUte Electric Association in has begun operating a Illmegaisiii llit based generating unlL if the39 are success ful39 these two prtitet is alone with Il39l NOfll39E3939I States l titL39t39 infinit ny s projecta conthinitl private sector commitment til llt39ilf39l Still mllllon will reduce the t tnl39itlt39llC risk entailed In the ipptititttin of Fttc boilers for the llltli39 iiittustrv 397 i39 I39l alternative tec hntiltiiu htch In less sophtstit atetl tiirm wus actually commonplace in the mid 19th century produces tieanburn ing gas from coal Isee illustration on precedl g D cli lhe gas l suttitble for lighting and heaiittg purposes andln fact had an important role in 0t until It was displaced by nat ural gaslust before World War it g39d1tties were initially interested in C Lgaslllcauon processes because 1 yquottan produce a fuel for boilers that burns cleanly and thereby elim mg 39esthe need for scrubbing ii is now clear that coal gasification has a rifore significant advantage turbines cg be driven directly by the hot gas cg produced by the combustion of C53 gasThls In turn makes it possi be39 for the quotwastequot heat of the com busuon products leaving the gas tur bine to be captured and harnessed to Poduce steam for a steam turbine Such an arrangement of coupled gas and steam turbines is called it com bmed cycle and is one of the most et dem means avtitlable in genomic lectrlc power E coal gas from is hirh sulfur and par ticulate matter have been renimed is anexcellent gasturbine fuel and like natural gas can be burned with very low emissions The combined cycle high efficiency compensates for the 39l I1 n39J quot7quot 3 lt39 quotr 1 39 unavoidable ef ciency tosses that re sult from converting coal into a gas Moreover water consumption is low er than in a conventional coal plant because twothirds of the power is produced by the gasturbine system which needs no cooling water to con dense steam The viability of an integrated gast cationcombinedcycle IGCC pow er plant has been demonstrated at the Cool Water site of the Southern California Edison Company The Cool water plant which began operating in May 1984 generates about 100 megawatts of electricity from a wide range of coal types its emissions are comparable to those of a nearby nat uralgas power plant Sulfur oxides in its ue gas are kept well below Feder at standards by means of an adjunct sulfurremoval system that extracts essentially all the sulfur originally contained in the coal to yield pure sulfur with a signi cant market val ue Nitrogen oxide formation is sup pressed by adding moisture to the gas before it is burned so that the combustion temperature of the gas is lowered Moreover the coal residues left in the gasifier are melted yield ing an inert vitreous material when cooled that meets California solid waste standards in addition to its advantages in pol lution control and efficiency an tccc plant can be constructed in phases allowing generating capacity to be built up in increments Such exibili ty in construction minimizes the risk in capital investment associated with an uncertain growth of the electric load The rst increment of generat ing capacity for example might be provided by gas turbines which tak ing advantage of current low fuel prices might be driven not by coal gas but by oil or natural gas Then as the demand for electricity grows the addition of a wasteheat boiler and steam turbine would increase not only the capacity of the plant but also its efficiency When oiland gas prices as well as load requirements make it economical to do so a coalgasi ca tion facility could then be construct ed at the plant site he role of coalfired power plants 39 is a crucial question in the pub llfjpolicy debate over the steward ship of natural resources the protec tion of the environment the provi sion of energy and the growth of the economy Yet these considerations need not conflict a look at the emerg quot18 technological options shows that emission controls and cost reduc tions can in fact complement one an other This principle was recognized in a joint US Canadian report on acid rain issued last year Acting on the re port39s recommendations Congress is currently considering the establish ment of a major national initiative to demonstrate and deploy clean coal burning technology This initiative which would augment privatesector resources with Federal investments is intended to ensure that the full range of coalprocessing technolo gies including rnc boilers and coal gasi erswill be available for wide spread commercial application in the 199039s Even with such power plant technologies in the of ng however the growing demand for electricity could not be met without a collection of concurrent measures that empha size conservation enduse manage ment and increased productivity from existing power plants Continuing economic and environ mental considerations will eventual ly lead to technological develop ments extending well beyond those we havediscussed here Ultimately coal red power plants could evolve into fully integrated quotresource re n eriesquot Such facilities would adapt themselves to the local fossilfuel and resource base to produce a mixture of electricity heat fuels and market able products for the local economy In addition to mac boilers and coal gasification facilities an entirely new spectrum of technologies linked by electronic diagnostic and control sys tems would be incorporated at sucls plants to recover most of the by products of coal processing There is no shortage of opportu nities to improve both the econom ic and the environmental aspects of coalbased electricpower produc tion The timely exploitation of these opportunities however depends on whether the Government can enact broad and balanced energy and en vironmental policies that give the electricutility industry the neces sary incentives Care must be taken that innovative coalprocessing tech nologles are developed and imple mented rationally with the coopera tion of utilities in contrast to the way scrubber technology was intro duced This could be ensured if the associated costs and risks are mini mized through wellplanned design testing and re nement of smallscale prototypes and demonstration plants before commercialscale systems are nally introduced Egypt Is a Warning for All Financial Markets By Chris Martenson Feb 10 2011 745 am The United States Japan and many other countries are vulnerable to the same fundamental pressures rising food and fuel costs based on production declines underlying the recent unrest in Egypt Editor39s Note Chris Martenson is an economic researcher and futurist specializing in energy and resource depletion One day a fruit and vegetable seller was arrested in Tunisia sparking social unrest and a few weeks later the government of Egypt was set to topple Such is the nature of complex chaotic and unpredictable systems The stresses build for years and years and nothing really seems to be happening but then everything suddenly changes Egypt is therefore emblematic of what we might expect in any complex system in which pressures are building such as the US Treasury market Can events in complex systems ever be predicted No and yes No because the precise timing and details can never be predicted Yes because we can be certain that anything that is unsustainable will someday cease to continue and things that are horribly imbalanced will someday topple We can also be certain that the change when it comes will be rather sudden and abrupt rather than gentle and linear That is we can easily predict that a complex system will shift and that it will probably do so rapidly but not exactly when or by how much How unbalanced was Egypt Very Here are a few quite relevant statistics about Egypt hat tip to an email from reader Mark 0 with credit to Dr John Coulter to which I have added a few items The Relentless Math 0 Population 1960 278 million 0 Population 2008 817 million 0 Current population growth rate 2 per annum a 35 year doubling rate 0 Population in 2046 after another doubling 164 million 0 Rainfall average over whole country about 2 inches per year 0 Highest rainfall region Alexandria 79 inches per year 0 Arable land almost entirely in the Nile Valley 3 0 Arable land per capita 004 Ha 400 m2 0 Arable land per capita in 2043 002 Ha 0 Food imports 40 of requirements 0 Grain imports 60 of requirements l 0 Net oil exports Began falling in 1997 went negative in 2007 0 Oil production peaked in 1996 0 Cost of oil rising steeply 0 Cost of oil and food tightly linked The future of Egypt will be shaped by these few biophysical facts a relentless form of math that is hardly unique to Egypt by the way and it matters very little who is in power Given the choice I would not want to live there nor in any other country that has fostered or permitted such reckless population growth beyond what the country itself can sustain EEifWlfI39S Dill lPr m lurEtfi n T tE A 3D dampGIillquotiE9 tmm peak Q T EDW 195 195 J EDDE The interesting part is that these facts have been in plain view for decades building into economic and social pressures that were suddenly unleashed in a wave of social and political unrest How was it that such obvious things escaped notice for so long before they suddenly reared up into plain view Instead of being a surprising exception to the rule we should instead brace ourselves against the idea that this is just the way things tend to work Back to the main story Without persistent and rising food imports Egypt cannot feed itself It has managed to cover up the shortfall by having enough oil to export but like every country its oil reserves are finite and eventually they39ll face a day of reckoning The oil situation in Egypt has only very recently become an enormous and unavoidable issue The monthly peak occurred in December 1996 the yearly peak was also 1996 and oil production is now down some 30 since then While it39s good to have plenty of production what really matters to a nation that imports so much of its basic living items are exports Of course there are two things that typically chew on a nation39s oil exports falling production and rising internal consumption With both of these dynamics in play Egypt39s exports have been getting mauled not by one but by two exponential functions Petroleum Heat IExpumI5IIrn 999 mt JEEDEIITEI I V I C a s ul 9 p p ell peel inn I A E E 299 9 i 1 E E 1nnn I an I Rh 3 I V E III q I Yh I Yh 1EI I II z I I I I I I irl I I9Ei39 I I994 I999 1999 1999 2999 2994 9999 war I F5 align eu a39n H 912 E tarartsi39Em parts Source Energy Information Agency The green circle marks the date when Egypt hit its peak of petroleum production in 1996 and the blue circle and arrow marks when exports had fallen by 50 just six years after peak production The gap between those two events six years is a very short amount of time to adjust to the new reality too short as it turns out Such is the nature of a double exponential working against you Note For the energy purists this chart from the EIA misrepresents things somewhat Egypt39s domestic oil consumption and production are virtually identical right now but Egypt has the largest oil refining sector in Africa which skews its petroleum imports to the negative side But whether Egypt became a new petroleum importer this year or in 2007 is essentially a historical blink and the story told by the trajectory of the chart is little changed by small matters of timing Any country that has to import both oil and food is living on borrowed time It was only a matter of time before something gave way and apparently that time is now Secretary of State Hillary Clinton actually spoke something approximating the truth about this fact recently although she was referring to the entire region but nonetheless it was an unusual moment of clarity for the US political structure See Hillary Clinton Middle East Facing quotPerfect Stormquot US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has said the Middle East is facing a quotperfect stormquot of unrest and nations must embrace democratic change Speaking in Munich Clinton said the status quo in the region was quotsimply not sustainablequot quotThe region is being battered by a perfect storm of powerful trends quotThis is what has driven demonstrators into the streets of Tunis Cairo and cities throughout the region The status quo is simply not sustainablequot She said that with water shortages and oil running out governments may be able to hold back the tide of change for a short while but not for long Water shortages and oil running out I39d decode those ideas for you but they speak for themselves Food and fuel are running out The irony here is that she may as well have been speaking about the United States Japan or any number of countries across the globe but any admission of biophysical limits is a good start I suppose Editorially it39s not at all clear to me how the poorly defined concept of quotdemocratic changequot will really change the equation much as limits are immune to which quotismquot you happen to be running but I am sure there are some in Washington DC who think ideology can trump reality Regardless I am somewhat surprised to see such obvious truths about water and oil being spoken by a senior US representative it was unclear to me that anyone at that level had any awareness of these subjects at all My intent here is not to point out the future difficulties that Egypt faces no matter who is charge but to use the change that happened there as emblematic of what we might expect elsewhere especially in the financial markets Egypt simply reminds us that anything that is unsustainable will someday change It is an emblem for the world With abundant energy and food we are treated to expansive and stable economies in which everyone stands a chance of gaining Not that everyone will mind you but the possibility is there In an energy constrained world what was formerly possible is no longer doable things don39t work right and there seem to be persistent shortages of everything from growth to money to food to goodwill What used to work doesn39t It is at these points that the prior stresses and imbalances are most likely to snap and suddenly change the world These are the very sorts of changes that are coming to the rest of the world Perhaps to a country or financial market near you Are you ready httpwwwminyanvillecombusinessmarketsarticlesegypt economy food prices fue prices2102011id32723 Coal A Human History by Barbara Freese Reading Questions Take these seriously as one or more of them WILL appear on the final exam Please answer each of the following questions in no more than a few sentences The questions are in order and follow the progression of the book Questions 1 At the end of Chapter 1 p14 how does Freese touch on one of the Great Tradeoffs of the Spreng Triangle State the tradeoff and brie y explain 2a In Chapter 2 what period of history was coal forming What was it called and what approximate years b How was coal formed 3 What city was notorious for air problems and health concerns caused by burning coal in the 1500 and 1600s 4 What 3 gases poisoned and killed coal miners 5 What was James Watt s contribution to the industrial revolution Ch 3 6 What were some of the negative health affects from the extensive use of coal on the working class in Manchester 7 What is special about anthracite and where is it commonly found Ch 5 8 What was the municipal housekeeping movement and how did it begin improving understanding in coal s effects How did engineers start addressing these problems Ch 6 9 As discussed in Chapter 7 name some of the effects of the following on human health and the environment from coal combustion S02 NOX mercury and particulates 10 In 1996 5 million Chinese and 90000 US coal miners produced about the same amount of coal What are some reasons for the disparity in labor What are the modern working conditions for each country Ch 8 11 What did Mao s Great Leap Forward mean to coal production and how did it ultimately affect the country 12 What is the comparison of per capita electricity use of China compared to the US Ch 8 13 In 1995 5 of the world s 10 most polluted cities were in China How does this compare to London and Pittsburgh in the 19th century as far as how the pollution is created 14 Name 3 causes for hope for China s pollution problems explained at the end of Chapter 8 Electric Cars Tesla Motors By Russ Britt MarketWatch Jan 29 2010 LOS ANGELES MarketWatch Highend electriccar company Tesla Motors filed for an initial public offering Friday seeking 100 million in the publicfinancing arena as conventional auto makers are reeling from anemic sales and product recalls Palo Alto Caif based Tesla filed documents with the US Securities and Exchange Commission but did not indicate in the filing when those shares would be sold on the public markets nor what the initial price would be Company executives could not be immediately reached for comment If successful the IPO could help usher in a new era for the auto industry which is steadily moving toward cleanerburning engines The IPO is expected to be one of the most high profie offerings in some time and is the first by a US automaker since Ford Motor Co F 1084 057 500 entered the public markets in 1956 Whether Tesla can take advantage and shift public tastes more toward zero emission cars is unclear But the timing of the IPO could prove to be shrewd quotWe believe incumbent automobile manufacturers are at a crossroads and face significant industry wideThe IPO is expected to be one of the most high profie offerings in some time and is the first by a US automaker since Ford Motor Co F 1084 057 500 entered the public markets in 1956 Whether Tesla can take advantage and shift public tastes more toward zero emission cars is unclear But the timing of the IPO could prove to be shrewd quotWe believe incumbent automobile manufacturers are at a crossroads and face significant industry wide challengesquot Tesla said in its filing adding that quotthe legacy investments made by incumbent automobile manufacturers in manufacturing and technology related to the internal combustion engine have to date inhibited rapid innovation in alternativefuel powertrain technologiesquot While Ford has been prospering of late rivals General Motors and Chrysler have been suffering from downtrodden sales and were taken over by the federal government last year Meanwhile top foreign producer Toyota Motor Corp TM 7700 067 086 is having to recall millions of its automobiles around the globe due to a problem with sticking accelerator pedals Tesla first started selling its 100000 a eectric sports car the Roadster in 2008 and followed that up last year with the Roadster 2 The company claims in its IPO filing that the car has a range of 236 miles on a single charge and says it has sold 937 of the vehicles in 18 countries It is designing a sedan designed for family use the Model S which would run for 49900 after a 7500 federal tax credit the company39s IPO said The sedan would have a range of 160 to 300 miles on a single charge In addition Tesla is negotiating with Daimler AG DAI 4581 027 059 to provide its electric powertrain and battery technology for Daimler39s Smart fortwo car One thousand Tesla battery packs and chargers are being used in a trial with Smart fortwo cars in five European cities Tesla said it has taken out a 465 million longterm loan with the Energy Department under its advanced vehices manufacturing program to build a facility that will manufacture the Model S The company added that it has been given up to 31 million under similar California state programs In the filing Tesla indicated its revenue will decrease substantially before the Model S is rolled out expected to be sometime in 2012 That is because Tesla will cease selling its roadsters in 2011 and won39t resume production on a new model until at least 2013 Is America Ready to Quit Coal NYT 21509 By MELANIE WARNER Published February 14 2009 Last May protesters took over James E Rogers s front lawn in Charlotte NC unfurling banners declaring No new coal and erecting a makeshift green power plant which they said in a press release was fueled by the previously unexplored energy source known as hot air which has been found in large concentrations at his home James Rogers chief of Duke Energy says he tries to balance electricity needs and green power Duke Energy which gets 71 percent of its electricity from coal and is delving into wind and solar projects is building a big coalfired plant in North Carolina And so it goes for Mr Rogers the chief executive of Duke Energy For three years environmentalists have been battling to stop his company from building a large coalfired power plant in southwestem North Carolina They say it will spew six million tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere annually in addition to producing toxic gases and mountains of y ash similar to the muck that engulfed a Tennessee community recently All Mr Rogers asks he said in jest is that protesters let him know when they want to camp out on his lawn Maybe next time we can have a little notice and ask them to join us for coffee or tea he says Mr Rogers and his colleagues may be forgiven for feeling a little under siege these days The coal industry which powered the industrial revolution and supplied America with much of its electricity for more than 60 years is in a ght for its survival With concems over climate change intensifying electricity generation from coal once reliably cheap looks increasingly expensive in the face of the allbutcertain prospect of regulations that would impose signi cant costs on companies that emit large amounts of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases As a result utilities plans for new coal plants are being tumed down left and right In the last twoandahalf years plans for 83 plants in the United States have either been voluntarily withdrawn or denied permits by state regulators The roughly 600 coalfired power plants in the United States are responsible for almost onethird of the country s total carbon emissions but they are distinctly at odds with a growing outlook that embraces clean energy A new campaign against coal by Robert F Kennedy J r a prominent environmentalist and the Waterkeeper Alliance is called The Dirty Lie Other cleanenergy advocates are equally passionate If you care about being a leader on solving global warming problems you don t build new coal plants especially ones that don t have a way to capture carbon said Stephen A Smith executive director of the Southeastern Alliance for Clean Energy Mr Smith s group was not involved in the decorating of the Duke executive s lawn That was the handiwork of a small group called Rising Tide in Asheville This green chorus also includes Al Gore the former vice president Eric E Schmidt the chief executive of Google and Harry Reid the Senate majority leader who has called for a moratorium on new coal plants Mr Reid and other Democratic leaders in Congress emboldened by support from the Obama administration have promised climate change legislation by the end of the year While the exact outlines are yet to be determined lawmakers are discussing plans to force companies to reduce carbon emissions or be required to pay some form of penalty Some conservatives in Congress and the coal industry itself say the clean energy push is an affordable luxury and a pet cause for people in states that don t have to rely primarily on coal to produce electricity The costs for those customers in the heartland who get more of their electricity from coal not only residential but commercial customers could be significantly higher at a time when we can least afford it says Jim Owen spokesman for the Edison Electric Institute which represents electric utilities So we want to make sure that a climate change program is properly designed Moreover getting more and more of our energy from squeakyclean sources like wind solar and biomass sounds like a great idea but whether renewables can keep the lights on and our iPods charged remains an open question THE coal industry is aware of all of these issues and is fighting back An industry financed group called the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity spent 38 million last year informing Americans via TV and newspaper ads that coal is the source of 50 percent of their electricity that it is an abundant domestic resource and most importantly that there is the promise of clean or carbonfree coal This argument is what Mr Kennedy s group calls the dirty lie Nevertheless the industry sees clean coal technologies as its best hope for joining the ranks of green power The problem is that the technology called carbon capture and storage is still being developed and could make electricity generated by coal more expensive than power from other sources There are 16 gigawatts of new coal red generation coming online in the next few years said Kevin Book an energy policy analyst at FBR Capital Markets They may well be the last plants Mr Rogers 61 may adhere to the procoal sentiments of many of his peers but he is hardly a typical captain of the energy industry Five years ago he began advocating for climate change legislation at a time when some companies were still saying human activity had nothing to do with global warming Mr Rogers a native of Birmingham Ala considers himself an environmentalist and calls his decision to move forward with the new plant made shortly after he became chief of Duke in April 2006 a difficult one The estimated 240 million tons of carbon dioxide that will be generated over the 40year life of the plant known as Cliffside will probably never be captured when or if such technology becomes viable Most proposals to capture gas involve injecting it deep into the earth But in North and South Carolina where Duke operates the underground rock is too porous to contain any gas There s always been a tension between affordability and clean Mr Rogers said in mid January sipping a cappuccino on his way to a meeting in Washington with Carol M Browner the White House coordinator of energy and climate policy Ultimately we need to be able to meet the energy needs of our customers That s my biggest obligation Fulfilling that responsibility through renewable energy wasn t an option he said Duke which gets 71 percent of its electricity from coal has only recently delved into solar energy promising to buy the entire output of a large solar farm in North Carolina and it is seeking final approval to put solar panels on rooftops at hundreds of customer sites Its first purchase from a wind farm has started owing to customers in Indiana All that combined though will give Duke only 124 megawatts of energy compared with 800 planned from Cliffside Hoping to mitigate some of the environmental impact of Cliffside Mr Rogers has promised to shut down more than an equal amount of older more polluting power plants by 2018 Environmentalists are not impressed They say that Mr Rogers hasn t pushed for clean energy with the same vigor he has expended on Cliffside for instance he personally lobbied North Carolina utility regulators for Cliffside but not for the solar program Among the utility guys he s the most dangerous because he talks a good game but his actions are among the worst said Bruce E Nilles who oversees anticoal initiatives for the Sierra Club Not so says Mr Rogers He says that he s just a pragmatist not a hypocrite and that he has given his full support to Duke s solar program Even if they want to it s going to be hard for utilities to wean themselves off huge coal plants which are much simpler to plan and build than a collage of smaller altemative energy projects that cannot be counted on for continuous power Utilities like to plan their world around big traditional power plants said Mr Smith of the Southem Alliance for Clean Energy Only when they are forced are they willing to rethink that business model Mr Rogers after all was hoping to build two plants at the Cliffside site but the state awarded only one permit Other utilities though have swom off coal for the time being and are eagerly embracing altemative energy Xcel Energy for example has erected 274 cloudcolored turbines on the gusty plains of northeastem Colorado It gets about half of its electricity from coal but it also draws more of its power from wind almost 3000 megawatts than any other utility It s not always easy but we re wanting to provide our customers with cleaner and cleaner energy said Frank P Prager vice president for environmental policy at Xcel Others have even broader ambitions Dan W Reicher Google s director for climate change and energy initiatives is confident it s possible to wean ourselves off coal Last year he devised a plan called Clean Energy 2030 that calls for America to go almost fossil fuelfree by 2030 His proposal entails keeping electricity demand at by aggressively pursuing energy efficiency thus bypassing the need for new coal plants to meet growing demand All existing coal generation and about half of our current natural gas production would be replaced with a medley of clean electricity propelled by wind solar nuclear and other sources Michael G Morris chief executive of American Electric Power in Columbus Ohio also one of the largest utilities in the country dismisses Google s plan particularly the idea of eliminating coalfired electricity by 2030 Absolutely impossible he scoffs If you can make the wind blow 247 that would be good Maybe Google s got a plan for that Environmentalists counter that there are innovative ways to deal with the fact that wind and solar farms don t generate nonstop electricity namely pairing them with natural gas plants and using emerging energy storage technologies Even with creative approaches clean energy still presents huge challenges Lots of new wind and solar farms are going to require huge amounts of new transmission lines that will carry that power from remote places to more populated areas an endeavor that a consortium of grid operators projects will cost as much as 100 billion Solutions like advanced geothermal a promising way to get clean alwayson energy are still in the development stage and will require huge investments For their part nearly all utility companies yeam for the day when coal isn t a dirty word and when plants can capture and store their carbon dioxide No one is a bigger cheerleader for this idea than Mr Morris of American Electric This fall the 150foot smokestack at the company s Mountaineer coal plant in New Haven WVa will be outfitted with technology that uses chilled ammonia to trap carbon dioxide The greenhouse gas will then be tumed into a liquid and injected into the l39Iquot0UIuICBlquot anu FUIIIIIBT Coal fuels hall of all electricity generated but contributes more than twothirds of all carbon dioxide emissions from the electric power sector Proposals to expand coal plant capacity may be curtailed grout existl CAPACITY EMISSIONS devel BUT Nuclear c1ea Moui And i millia Then Mark P0555 Natural gas for pl Until J Said Petroleum need Coal 1 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide 1 billion megawatt hours 3994 3907 3994 3907 SOUi C939 Energy lnl Oa39 1393939 Aomnsrrar9n quotnu mmquot nk 1pu39 STEPS TOWARD A HYDROGEN SOCIETY WITHIN A FEW YEARS b a Small numbers of prototype vehicles are tested bg leasing them a to residents living near a hydrogen fueling station ENERGY SOURCES Current fossilfuel nuclear and hydroelectric genera tion will be increasingly augmented by cleaner and Fuel ce unit with b Transit and business fleets that quot39 fuel reformer return to the garage each day such w I renewable reehneregree as buses mailtrucks and delivery I V er 0 vans start to be supplied bg centrallg 1 located hgdrogen stations F Ii E Cemrellg supplied Ere W Leased fue ce fue ce fleets I E vehicles WITHIN A DECADE a Car plants manufacture fuece Fuereerr powered skateboards and a few auto factorg HYDRO different snapon body types ELECTRIC P A Fuelcell backup b Hgdrogen fueling stations with onsite A K power Supple natural gas reformers chemical Hedmgemruer cracking units are installed to provide station V F eI Stamn hgdrogen to early production vehicles NUCLEAR c Stationarg power generators which reform natural gas into hydrogen and feed into the fuel cell are installed in enterprises that require highreliabilitg premium power for data communications continuous manufacturing or emergency medicine For example ambulances and emergencg vehicles refuel at the Fuelcell hospitalfuelcellunit Fuelcebackup 9 r 4 emergencg powersupplg p Vehjde Naturalgas Residential IN pipeline fuel cellgenerator A DECADE a Stationarg reformerfuelcell units C1 sited at more tgpes of businesses and E I L 1 Major fuelcell auto factorg eventuallg homes sell extra power to the electricity grid in what s called a distributed generation sgstem These quotquot I I installations begin to provide hgdrogen locally to emplogees BIOMASS Fuel station with electrolgzer b More hgdrogen stations that use b electrolgzers come online c Huge assemblg plants put out three sizes of fuelcell skateboard chassis compact midsize large Regional auto factories e specialize in bodies d Dealers sell new bodies in various d stgles for drivers used skateboards Bodg dealership e Other plants in different regions build diverse bodies for their local markets DJ E for example in India and China tractors and trucks SOLAR Trucks 70 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN OCTOBER ZOO2 COPYRIGHT ZOOZ SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN INC SLIM FILMS ETHICS AND INTENTIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE DALE JAMIESON University of Caiorado Boulder C 0 80309 U SA Abstract In recent years the idea of geoengineering climate has begun to attract increasing attention Although there was some discussion of manipulating regional climates throughout the 19703 and 19805 the discussion was largely dormant What has reawakened the conversation is the possibility that Earth may be undergoing a greenhouseinduced global warming and the paucity of serious measures that have been taken to prevent it In this paper I assess the ethical acceptability of ICC based on my impressions of the conversation that is now taking place Rather than offering a dispassionate analysis I argue for a point of view I propose a set of conditions that must be satis ed for an ICC project to be morally permissible and conclude that these conditions are not now satis ed However research on ICC should go forward so long as certain other conditions are met I do not intend this to be the last word on the subject but rather the first word My hope is that others will be stimulated to think through the ethics of ICC 1 Intentional Climate Change ICC In recent years the idea of geoengineering climate has begun to attract increasing attention In 1974 Kellogg and Schneider discussed various approaches to con trolling climate and raised some serious questions about its advisability Although there was some discussion of manipulating regional climates throughout the 1970s and 19803 the discussion was largely dormant see eg Glantz 1977 What has reawakened the conversation is the possibility that Earth may be undergoing a greenhouseinduced global warming and the paucity of serious measures that have been taken to prevent it The recent debate makes for strange bedfellows Many of those who believe most strongly that climate change is occurring are reluctant to embrace geoengi neering approaches to reversing it This is because they believe that the hand of man is implicated in most of our environmental problems and they see geoengi neering as more of the same Others who are interested in exploring or developing geoengineering possibilities are disinclined to believe that climate is changing On their view planetary systems are relatively insensitive to human behavior and for that reason we shouldn t worry too much about the risks of geoengineering So to simplify some people believe that there is a problem but that geoengineering is no solution others believe that geoengineering is a solution but that there is no problem We might speculate that if a social consensus in favor of geoengineering emerges it will be to attack a problem that we don t believe exists The recent discussion has largely occurred in the corridors of scienti c meetings rather than in print or in formal sessions By the time a signi cant literature on its moral acceptability develops ICC may be a fair accompli For that reason it is Climatic Change 33 323336 1996 1996 Kluwer Academic Publishers Printed in the Netherlands 324 DALE JAMIESON important to discuss the arguments that are in the air even if they cannot be pinned down to citable publications In this paperl assess the ethical acceptability of ICC based on my impressions of the conversation that is now taking place Rather than offering a dispassionate analysis I argue for a point of view I propose a set of conditions that must be satis ed for an ICC project to be morally permissible and conclude that these conditions are not now satis ed However research on ICC should go forward so long as certain other conditions are met I do not intend this to be the last word on the subject but rather the rst word My hope is that others will be stimulated to think through the ethics of ICC 2 Ethical Preliminaries Climatic Change An Interdisciplinary International Journal Devoted to the De scription Causes and Implications of Climatic Change is obviously not a journal of moral philosophy and this is not the place to provide a tutorial on the subject the interested reader might consult Rachels 1993 However some basic issues should be addressed In my assessment of ICC I draw upon the moral resources of the western tradi tion The westem moral tradition is not monolithic and it can even be questioned whether it makes sense to speak of a single westem tradition The openness of the western moral tradition is re ected in the fact that common sense morality is contested it is not universally shared nor is it entirely consistent and coherent much less complete Still my discussion presupposes that there is such a thing as common sense morality and that it makes sense to discuss its implicit claims and arguments see also Par t 1984 Some may think that this approach though quite conventional in contemporary moral philosophy is ethnocentric and therefore my project is doomed to triviality The rst response to this charge is that I make no claim that the western moral tradition is best only that its precepts and principles resonate with many people around the word and serve to guide the behavior of many readers of this journal The second response is that as I have suggested moral traditions are open ended rather than exhaustive lists of precepts and whatever differences exist across traditions may be recapitulated within them The third response which follows is more controversial I believe that many people these days are overly impressed by the apparent diversity of moral outlooks Disagreement as opposed to unintelligibility actually presupposes zones of agreement However in morality as in science disagreement is salient while those large areas of agreement become nearly invisible Further more in many cases what appears to be moral disagreement is really a difference of opinion about how the world works eg Does the reappearance of the sun really depend on human sacri ce Even when there are clear moral disagreements they ETHICS AND INTENTIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE 325 may not be as deep as they appear Moral disagreements about particular cases often involve people assigning different weights to various principles to which they all agree For example everyone may agree that the consequences of actions conformity to rules and conduciveness to human excellence all have something to do with what makes right acts right but disagree about the relative importance of these considerations Hard analysis is required in order to determine the depth and extent of crosscultural disagreement about morality Super cial impressions of difference which are as old as Heroditus are not very revealing However much diversity there is within and across traditions we must begin an ethical investigation from where we are and it is clear that common sense morality is where many of us are much of the time As an author I am situated within a cultural tradition and I am addressing a particular audience the readers of this joumal While I think my conclusions should command broad agreement I make no claim for their universality or timelessness for more on method in moral philosophy see Jamieson 1991 3 A Common Sense Objection to ICC A number of approaches to ICC have been discussed eg in NAS 1992 These approaches range from the familiar eg treeplanting the the exotic eg space mirrors Some may wonder why anyone would object to geoengineering climate since hardly anyone objects to planting trees What makes geoengineering suspect in the eyes of many is lack of familiarity with the technologies and the scale and magnitude of the proposals Unfamiliar technologies eg ocean fertilization generally are more suspect than familiar ones eg tree planting And largescale projects eg planting vast areas of Earth s surface with trees selected and managed for their carbon sequestering properties are more suspect than smallscale projects eg planting one tree Many geoengineering proposals that have been discussed involve both largescale environmental transformations and relatively unfamiliar technologies In short these proposals involve the sort of engineering that many people would nd objectionable One widespread common sense argument against ICC rests on the idea that it is wrong for humans to interfere dramatically with fundamental natural processes In reply some would point out that humans are already interfering with fundamental natural processes ICC proposals are directed toward reversing the inadvertent climate change that may already be occurring The goal of ICC is to return the climate system to its original state before humans began to affect it This argument appears to be convincing to some scientists but is not persuasive to many other people First both the objection and the reply share a problem do we really know what climate would be like were it not affected by humans and if so is this a realistic target at which to aim Moreover if we go into the business of ICC why should we settle for returning climate to what it was before Why not try 326 DALE JAMIESON to improve climate and make it more conducive to human activities While these are serious questions the objection that resonates with many people is one that is deeply rooted in our moral traditions Many people believe that two wrongs do not make a right On this view ICC rather than righting a wrong would just add a second wrong to the rst Indeed many people would say that the second wrong of intentionally changing climate would be worse than the rst wrong of inadvertently changing climate even if this second wrong returned us to the original climate The idea that there is an asymmetry between what is brought about intentionally and what is an inadvertent result of an action is a central feature of common sense morality Intentionally running over a pedestrian is generally regarded as worse than doing so inadvertently or accidentally When trying to evade responsibility for an action people often claim that what happened was not what they intended I didn t mean to do it This supposed asymmetry between what is intended and what is merely brought about reaches its fullest expression in the Doctrine of Double Effect see Glover 1977 for discussion This doctrine which grew out of Catholic moral theology implies that people are responsible for what they intend but not for the foreseeable but unintended consequences of what they do The doctrine is re ected in the distinction made in war between intentionally killing civilians and collat eral damage inadvertently causing their deaths in the pursuit of legitimate war aims see Anscombe 1961 It is also enshrined in the widely accepted principle in medical ethics that it is permissible to let patients die but wrong to kill them intentionally see the papers collected in Steinbock 1980 I believe that the proposed asymmetry between what is intended and what is merely brought about cannot be maintained For reasons that I cannot explain here in some circumstances we are as responsible for what we cause but do not intend as for what we intentionally bring about see Singer 1993 for further discussion But even if the common sense argument against ICC that rests on this distinction can be defeated it does not follow that ICC is ethically acceptable A positive moral case for ICC is still required 4 The Case for ICC In an attempt to open up discussion I propose that the following conditions must be satis ed for an ICC project to be morally permissible 1 the project is technically feasible 2 its consequences can be predicted reliably 3 it would produce states that are socioeconomically preferable to the alterna tives 4 implementing the project would not seriously and systematically violate any important wellfounded ethical principles or considerations ETHICS AND INTENTIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE 327 The rst condition raises questions that are primarily technical and I will not try to address them The second and third conditions have important conceptual dimensions that require further elaboration and the fourth condition is explicitly ethical I will discuss the last three conditions in order 4 l RELIABLE PREDICTION If anything can be leamed from the environmental movement it is that many of our technological interventions have unanticipated negative consequences Although many of these technologies have made important contributions pesticides create superbugs nuclear energy involves unprecedented problems of waste disposal and CFCs the miracle chemicals that made modern refrigeration possible have turned out to be ozone depleting As Commoner 1971 points out there is no such thing as a free lunch The problem with our technological interventions is that we often don t know the price of the meal in advance or even the currency in which it will be extracted From cognitive psychologists we have learned that people tend to be overcon dent about their judgments Kahneman et al 1982 There is even reason to believe that in some cases greater expertise leads to even greater levels of overcon dence I ignore the paradox of whether cognitive scientists tend to overestimate their expertise when claiming that experts tend to overestimate their expertise This result should give experts about geoengineering some humility about the reliability of their predictions Their guesses about what will occur may be no better than those of novices Adelson 1984 If we couple the pervasiveness of unintended effects and the tendency of experts to overestimate their expertise with the incredible complexity of the climate system the grounds for skepticism about reliably predicting the effects of ICC seem very strong Not only is there reason to doubt that the consequences of ICC can be predicted reliably but there is reason to be suspicious of those who claim otherwise see also J amieson 19883 It might be claimed that this condition rules out too much reliable prediction is hard to come by I agree but reliable prediction has been one of the central goals of science since at least the seventeenth century as well as one of the stated goals of the US Global Change Research Program CENRR nd 5 If technological interventions have the potential to bring about quite profound negative effects it is not too much to ask that their advocates know what they are doing And in this case there is little evidence that they do 42 SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC PREFERABILITY It is even more dif cult to be con dent that a proposed attempt at ICC would be socially and economically preferable to its altematives than to predict the consequences of such an attempt This is because of the problem of cascading 328 DALE JAMIESON uncertainties if the consequences of ICC cannot be predicted reliably then it will be dif cult to show that the results of ICC would be socioeconomically preferable to the alternatives Not only do attempts to satisfy this condition inherit the uncertainties that attach to the previous condition but further problems arise in assessing the societal costs and bene ts of any climate change The effects of a climate change would be global in scale and would impact not only economies but also non market features of peoples lives Climate change would affect ways of life patterns of trade migration and systems of international relations to mention just a few of its potential effects These impacts would be felt in regions which barely have economies much less monetarized economies Because of the breadth and pervasiveness of the effects of climate change it is extremely dif cult to make an informed judgment between intentional or inadvertent climate change on grounds of socioeconomic preferability for more on this point see J amieson 1992 Not only are judgments of socio economic preferability dif cult because of a lack of certainty about various effects but such judgments are fundamentally interpretive and in the present context quite contestable In a general way this can be seen by the fact that some people perhaps eg Bentham 1789 1970 prefer states in which the total wealth of society is greater even if its distribution is unequal while others perhaps eg Rawls 1971 prefer states in which there is greater equality but less wealth One way of making preferability judgements between states relies on the notion of Paretosuperiority PS State A is PS with respect to state B if and only if no one is worse off in A than he or she is in B and at least one person is better off in A than B No one could reasonably object to this criterion but obviously in the real world few states are PS with respect to other states For this reason the notion of Potential Paretosuperiority PPS has been de ned some state A is PPS with respect to state B if and only if there is enough wealth in A so that those who were better off in B than in A could be compensated and there would still be at least one person better off in A than in B Many people would regard PPS as an adequate criterion for socioeconomic preferability But one problem with supposing this is that PPS is insensitive to distributional issues and to whether compensation is actually paid Suppose that some attempt at ICC was PPS with respect to the inadvertent climate change that we are undergoing But suppose further that ICC would make the rich richer and the poor poorer and the world being what it is no transfers would be made from the rich to the poor Some people would say that total wealth is what matters and therefore ICC is preferable to inadvertent climate change Others with more egalitarian values would deny that ICC is socioeconomically preferable to inadvertent climate change because of its effects on the poor It is dif cult to satisfy this third condition because judgments of socioeconomic preferability inherit the uncertainties involved with predicting the effects of attempt ing ICC and because these judgments introduce their own uncertainties as well In ETHICS AND INTENTIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE 329 addition there are deep problems in interpreting the meaning of socioeconomic preferability for further discussion of the latter point see eg Grif n 1986 Once again it can be objected that this argument proves too much A referee commented on an earlier draft of this paper that for many of the same reasons discussed in this section it is dif cult to assess the socio economic preferability of a global freetrade regime Quite so Rather than demonstrating that such judgments with respect to ICC are more tractable than might have been thought the referee s conclusion I believe that this observation shows that the case for global free trade is less obviously persuasive than some have thought for some of the complications see Esty 1994 5 Ethical Principles and Considerations At least three important ethical considerations bear on the permissibility of ICC These are the importance of democratic decisionmaking the prohibition against irreversible environmental changes and the signi cance of learning to live with nature I will explore these principles and their relevance in turn 51 THE IIVEPORTANCE OF DEMOCRATIC DECISIONMAKING Independent of the substantive question of who would win and lose there is the procedural question of who would make the decision to undertake ICC Climate is a global system that affects everyone on Earth In some ways those in poor countries are even more affected by climate than those in rich countries since in many cases they have less ability to protect themselves from climate impacts The climate change that may now be occurring is largely caused by people in rich countries and their ancestors People in poor countries were not consulted about the wisdom of changing climate nor have they reaped much bene t from the activities that may be resulting in climate change Just as poor people in poor countries eg the periphery of the periphery did not give their consent to inadvertent climate change so it is unlikely that they would be asked to consent to ICC A decision to undertake ICC would likely be made by the same people who are causing inadvertent climate change and have reaped most of the bene ts from fossil fuel driven industrialization people in rich countries and their political social and economic leaders But if the world belongs to anyone it belongs to the poor as much as to the rich and no decision to go forward with ICC could be morally acceptable that did not in some way represent all of the people of the world Jamieson 1994 Even if people in poor countries would bene t from ICC it would still be wrong to change their climate without their consent In principle it might be possible to design a deliberative procedure that could render a just decision about ICC However such a procedure would be unwieldy because it would have to be representative of everyone on Earth and not just the 330 DALE JAMIESON global middle class Sachs 1993 Some may even think that other nonhuman living things should be represented in such a decision procedure eg Rolston 1988 In addition to who should be represented and how questions also arise about what would constitute a mandate for acton Would it require unanimity among nations a simple majority or a decision of the United National Security Council Indeed it can even questioned whether nations are the proper vehicles for making such decisions see J amieson 1994 However these questions might be answered the bottom line is that unless conditions change radically there is unlikely to be a democratic decision authorizing ICC There would be too much risk involved and too many people would be afraid of losing what they have Still I doubt that this would be the end of ICC The same people who are avoiding and evading the dif cult decisions that might prevent or mitigate inadvertent climate change might well decide to implement ICC if they felt it was in their interests 52 THE PROHIBITION AGAINST IRREVERSIBLE ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES Many different moral and legal traditions regard irreversible changes as extremely serious Murder is an especially heinous crime in part because no restitution is possible Restitution can be made to someone who loses property but not to someone who loses his or her life Irreversible environmental changes are especially serious for the same reason For many environmental conditions and states once they are lost they can never be restored at least not on time scales of interest to human beings Irreversible environmental changes deprive future people of choices and opportunities that they otherwise would have had If the effects of ICC were irreversible then those who made the decision to undertake ICC would be choosing one climate path for future people rather than another Bringing about irreversible changes also deprives present people from learning from their mistakes No mid course corrections are possible There is no going back on a bad or illconsidered choice Those who are sympathetic to ICC say that it is reversible We can stop fertilizing the oceans with iron mirrors can always be removed from orbit But while we may be able to reverse the processes that set a climate change in motion we may not be able to reverse the climate change itself once it is under way And even if some ICC technologies would produce reversible climate changes we cannot be sure that they are reversible unless we actually try to reverse them In 1957 Revelle and Suess pointed out that by injecting greenhouse gases into the atmosphere we are conducting a largescale geophysical experiment Their point was that although we are not injecting greenhouse gases into the atmosphere in order to conduct an experiment by observing the effects of our behavior we can hope to learn about rates and mechanisms of CO2 exchange If we were to implement ICC we would be undertaking an experiment involving the alteration of one of the fundamental systems that governs our planet Despite assurances to the contrary no one can be sure of the outcome of such an experiment ETHICS AND INTENTIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE 331 Changing human behavior is often a more conservative response to a prob lem than changing physical systems Humans are capable of a broad spectrum of behaviors and succeed in conforming to a wide range of diverse cultural pat terns Behavior is exible and has the potential to adapt quickly to new conditions through learning and adaptation This does not mean that human behavior is always responsible or appropriate nor that behavior change is costless or easy to imple ment Old habits die hard even when they are obviously defective destructive or dysfunctional But in principle changes in behavior can always be modi ed or reversed This is not the case with changes in physical systems We now have the power and potential to change planetary systems so profoundly that it is not practical ly possible to recover their original states This is dramatically clear in the case of nuclear weapons and nuclear power but it may also be true in the case of a greenhouse gasinduced climate change If we succeed in changing climate inad vertently we may not be able to reverse this change however hard we try Since human behavior is revisable modi able and affected by leaming behav ior change is the best response strategy for addressing many environmental prob lems In my view it is also the most ethically responsible strategy in many cases since it demands that solutions to problems be located in their source humans their behavior and their institutions 53 THE IMPORTANCE OF LEARNING TO LIVE WITH NATURE Many of our environmental problems ow from attempts to manipulate nature in order to make it conform to our desires rather than forming our desires in response to nature We have improved nature in many ways bringing water to places where people want to live exterminating animals who prey on those we raise for food dredging harbors and lling wetlands so towns and cities can be developed Although it is not possible or desirable for humans always to let nature take its course there is a growing sense that modern societies have erred on the side of excessive intervention We have become arrogant and intrusive in attempting to manage all elements of nature The growing interest in admittedly ill de ned concepts such as sustainable development re ects in part this growing sense that things have gone too far The idea that technical xes are forthcoming for almost all of our important problems was especially in uential in the United States in the 1950s and 1960s Weinberg 1966 explicitly argued that in many cases technological xes are supe rior to what he called social engineering the only alternative to technological xes that he considered Although the techno x idea came to prominence in the post World War II period its spirit goes back to the foundations of modern western culture Francis Bacon the sixteenthcentury theorist of the scienti c revolution broke with his predecessors when he taught that the purpose of knowledge was not 332 DALE JAMIESON contemplation but rather power over nature see Merchant 1980 for discussion Bac0n s language was revealing he talked about dominating manipulating and even torturing nature to get her to give up her secrets He identi ed nature with the passive female principle and science with the active male principle In his utopian society science would replace religion Bacon even mentions the intentional control of climate as one of the accomplishments of his utopian society But suppose that the following is granted that there is a lack of t between human desires and the environment and that all too often we have changed the environment instead of our desires It still does not follow that ICC would be wrong Perhaps in general we should be more modest in our manipulation of nature but some human changes of the environment are justi ed and perhaps even morally required ICC may be one of them This objection raises an important point Environmental destruction is not an all or nothing matter Ehrlich and Ehrlich 1990 compare the loss of species to the loss of rivets in an airplane It is dif cult to say in advance when a critical mass of rivets will have been lost or which rivets are particularly crucial Yet it is clearly unwise to be in the business of rivetpopping We can think of largesca1e human manipulations of the environment as popping the rivets in the attitudes and dispositions that are required ir1 order to live peaceably with nature Attempting to change global climate would be a very grand gesture I have given various reasons for supposing that such an attempt would be risky and probably ethically wrong But even if ICC were successful it would still have the bad effect of reinforcing human arrogance and the view that the proper human relationship to nature is one of domination Although it is dif cult to assess precisely in the longrun this attitude may be more destructive of both humans and the rest of nature than global warming itself 6 Concluding Remarks On the basis of what I have argued thus far my rst enthusiastic conclusion is that we should not now try to geoengineer climate This is a conclusion which virtually everyone claims to accept although people may not agree with the arguments that I have given in support of it The more contentious question is whether research in this area should go forward and whether ICC should be seriously contemplated as a possible response to inadvertent climate change My second unenthusiastic conclusion is that research should continue on whether ICC can be carried out in a way that is consistent with the conditions that I have outlined My reason for this is straightforward we may reach a point at quot A referee accuses me of arrogance in denouncing the traditional and current fundamentalist christian sic view of human dominion over nature as bad without actually taking the trouble to show that it is so While the pages of C limaric Change is not the place to debate fundamentalist Christians it should be noted that traditional Christian attitudes towards nature are much more complex than is suggested by the referee s remarks For discussion see e g Passmore 1974 and Att eld 1991 ETHICS AND INTENTIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE 333 which ICC is the lesser of two evils Still my enthusiasm for research ir1 this area is lukewarm and I will devote the rest of this paper to explaining why The case for research in almost any eld seems obvious and unassailable It is better to know more than less serious research means peer reviewed publication and the weeding out of the worst ideas and research gives us options and capabil ities to respond to dire or unexpected situations But even if we accept all of this the risks in initiating an ICC research program remain profound First money invested in one area of research is not available for research in other areas We cannot afford to know everything about everything or to develop all possible capacities that may protect us against any imaginable threat Research spending needs to be prioritized and traded off against other uses of the resources Second initiating research on ICC involves investing in a particular approach to the problem of global warming Whatever resources and energy go to research on ICC will not be available for preventing inadvertent climate change or mitigating its effects Third and most serious researching a technology risks inappropriately devel oping it Often we think of research as being quite independent of development We move from one to the other only on the basis of clearminded unbiased decisions it might be thought Unfortunately this often is not true In many cases research leads unre ectively to development There are at least two reasons for this The rst is that we seem to have a cultural imperative that says if something can be done it should be done For whatever reason technologies in this society often seem to develop a life of their own that leads inexorably to their development and deployment Opposing the deployment of a technology is seen as Luddite an attempt to tum back progress that is doomed to failure for a recent history of the Luddites see Sale 1995 The second impetus to move unre ectively from research to development is well documented with respect to medical technology A research program often creates a community of researchers that functions as an interest group promoting the development of the technology that they are investigating J amieson 1988b Since the researchers are the experts and frequently hold out high hopes for a rosy future if their technology is developed it can be very dif cult for decision makers to resist their recommendations In many cases the social and ethical issues created by the deployment of the technology are explored only after we are already committed to it but by then it is too late Although I favor ICC research going forward there is a serious risk that ICC projects will be implemented even if they are unwarranted For this reason safe guards should be built in to any research program from the beginning We should reject the idea that ethical and societal concerns are relevant only to decisions about development and not to decisions about research Societal concems should be articulated weighed and considered at every step along the way In my opinion research on ICC can be justi ed only if iterative ethical evaluations are part of the entire process of research and development Ethical and societal concems should 334 DALE JAMIESON gure in decisions about what to research at what level of funding with what urgency Serious systematic work should also be done on the conditions that would have to be satis ed for the deployment of ICC technologies to be justi ed It is important to recognize how different this recommendation is from the increasing tendency to give lip service to ethical considerations but then to structure programs in such a way that ethical concems are raised very far downstream in isolation from the conduct of the science Generally the atmospheric sciences have made no serious attempt to integrate ethical considerations into the design of research programs but experiments in other areas of science have been quite instructive For example the Human Genome Project spends four to six percent of its budget on ethical legal and societal studies that relate to the development and use of genetic information J uengst 1994 While this attempt at societal evaluation is far from perfect it is an important step toward taking the societal implications of science seriously In summary we should not now attempt ICC I believe that research should go forward but only on condition that such a program takes ethical and societal issues seriously We should learn from the past and build in societal assessment from the very beginning This is not only a good thing to do but in my view it is morally required if research on ICC is to be ethically justi ed Ackowledgments This paper was written when I was a visitor in the Environmental and Societal Impacts Group ESIG at the National Center for Atmospheric Research I am grateful to ESIG for its hospitality and support and to Michael Glantz for his searching comments on several versions of the manuscript not all of which I have been able to take into account I also thank Forrest Briscoe for pointing out a serious mistake two anonymous referees and my colleague Claudia Mills An earlier version of this paper was presented as part of the AAAS Symposium on Geoengineering Climate held in San Francisco in February 1994 I thank my fellow symposiasts and the session organizers Gregg Marland and Frances E Sharples for useful discussion Despite all of the good advice that I have gotten I alone am responsible for the opinions expressed in this paper References Adelson B 1984 When Novices Surpass Experts The Dif culty of a Task May Increase With Expertise J Exp Psyehol Learning Memory and Cognition 10 3 483495 Anscombe G 1961 War and Murder reprinted in The Collected Papers of G E M Anseombe Vol 3 Ethics Religion and Politics University of Minnesota Press Minneapolis pp 5161 quot For further discussion of some related issues see McGinn 1979 ETHICS AND INTENTIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE 335 Att eld R l99l The Ethics of Environmental Concern 2nd edn University of Georgia Press Athens Bentham J 17891970 in J H Burns and H L A Hart eds The Principles of Morals and Legislation Athalone Press London Committee on Environment and Natural Resources Research of the National Science and Technology Council Subcommittee on Global Change Research CENRR nd Our Changing Planet The FY 1996 US Global Change Research Program no publication data Commoner B 1971 The Closing Circle Nature Man and Technology Alfred A Knopf New York pp 4546 Ehrlich A and Ehrlich P 1990 Extinction Life in Peril reprinted in L Gruen and D Jamieson eds Re ecting on Nature Readings in Environmental Philosophy Oxford University Press New York pp 335336 Esty D 1994 Greening the GATT Trade Environment and the Future Institute for International Economics Washington DC Glantz M 1977 Climate and Weather Modi cation in and around Arid Lands in Africa in M Glantz ed Desertification Environmental Degradation in and around Arid Lands Westview Press Boulder CO pp 307333 Glover J 1977 Causing Death and Saving Lives Penguin Books New York Griffin I I986 WellBeing Oxford University Press New York J amieson D 1988a Grappling for a Glimpse of the Future in M Glantz ed Societal Responses to Regional Climatic Change Forecasting By Analogy Westview Press Boulder CO pp 7393 Jamieson D 1988b The Arti cial Heart Reevaluating the Investment in D Mathieu ed Organ Substitution Technology Ethical Legal and Public Policy Issues Westview Press Boulder CO pp277 293 Jamieson D 1991 Method and Moral Theory in P Singer ed1 Companion to Ethics Basil Blackwell Oxford pp 476487 Jamieson D 1992 Ethics Public Policy and Global Warming Science Technology and Human Values 17 139153 J amieson D 1994 Global Environmental Justice in R Att eld and A Belsey eds Philosophy and the Natural Environment Cambridge University Pess Cambridge pp 199210 Juengst E 1994 Human Genome Research and the Public Interest Amer J Human Genetics 54 121128 Kalmeman D Slovic P and Tversky A eds 1982 Judgement Under Uncertainty Heuristics and Biases Cambridge University Press Cambridge pp 287351 Kellogg W and Schneider S 1974 Climate Stabilization For Better or for Worse Science 186 11631 13932 McGinn R 1979 In Defense of Intangibles The ResponsibilityFeasibility Dilemma in Modern Technological Innovation Science Technology and Human Values 29 410 Merchant C The Death ofNature Women Ecology and the Scienti c Revolution Harper and Row Publishers San Francisco National Academy of Sciences N AS 1992 Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming Mitiga tion Adaptation and the Science Base National Academy Press Washington DC Par t D 1984 Reasons and Persons Oxford University Press New York Passmore l 1974 Man39s Responsibility for Nature Ecological Problems and Western Traditions Charles Scribner s and Sons New York Rawls J 1971 A Theory of Justice Harvard University Press Cambridge MA Rachels J 1993 The Elements of Moral Philosophy 2nd edn McGrawHill New York Revelle R and Suess H 1957 Carbon Dioxide Exchange Between Atmosphere and Ocean and the Question of an Increase of Atmospheric CO2 during the Past Decades Tellus 9 1826 Rolston III H 1988 Environmental Ethics Temple University Press Philadelphia PA Sachs W 1993 Global Ecology and the Shadow of Development in W Sachs ed Global Ecology A New Arena of Political Conflict Zed Books London p 5 Sale 141 1995 Rebels Against the Future The Luddites and Their War on the Industrial Revolution AddisonWesley Publishing Company Reading MA Singer P 1993 Practical Ethics Cambridge University Press Cambridge 3 36 DALE JAMIESON Steinbeck B ed 1980 Killing and Letting Die Prentice Hall Englewood Cliffs NJ Weinberg A 1966 Can Technology Replace Social Engineering reprinted in A Teich ed Technology and the F urure St Martin39s Press New York pp 3039 Received 17 April 1995 in revised form 31 January 1996 llfl far quot I J 39r IiiLllI i UUltIdlb C loit eto1I oMIcs m1n xrntne BUR UNBRIHLEEM PllRSlllT IF llNlAtPtPEl ENlEi RGa IS lAiKfNiE US illNiTU TFtEAl3HERJllSl NEW TERIRlTURll THE DNGOING DEBACLE TN P GULF of Mexico is a sign ofquot nmiany things the incornpetence of BF poor overslight and an incltisrtry that places too much einphasis on production ttechnology antl too little on sat39e39tjI technlology But it also highlights a larger tiruth 39We re enterecl an age ir1 North America where the 1oroductior1 of etne139E39IYi especialljr from fossils toels cornes with ererrho39re E2XpEI1lSiVE ernrirroinlmental t139atlevofts Wehre eriteretl what lvlichael Klare a lzariofiessor at lelanipsliire College calls the era of EtI E391quotl 1E ene139gyquot Consider how oil proucluction in the LLB has eixoilfrecl In Texas in 19iI1 wilt1 catters ditlrrt have to worl 39ver3r11arel to tap into the great Beauintmt gusher The oil was eesstenitially at the surfacve all hut seeping out of the earth s crust When the laiitlehasetl oil was Etl1 t1SlE39Cl Atmerican prospectoi s went to sea And when the shallowwater oil was eJthauistetl they went Farther out In 1985 only 21 million barrels or 6 percent of the oil I7JI 0vClTltCEt l in the Gulfquot of Mexico ca1ne fl U 1 wells drilled in water more than 1000 feet cleep ln 2009 such wells pro olI1c ecl 456 million barrels or 80 percerrt of total gulf proClLiction Totlay tle epwater gullquot wells acconnt for shout one CL1 I lE l of the oil the US sucks from the earth The 39Weh earns h39roaclcasting images fr on1 the spill jiroricle a realtiine measure of the envi rontrrverrtal cost of this e hrt The G11lf39 of Mexico isn t the only place where such soacalletl tough oil is to he l0l1l1Cli in llorth America 39l he El7Wl1quotO inenrtail hazel cls of clrilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Retiige are so olivi ous that even the Etrshera Congrelss and White House wouildntquott go there A1ialysts have enthusecl aliout the rapitl tlevelopine11t of the Aliherta tar sar1cls in BY DANIiEL GROSS Canac1alfrite ndl y nearby clemlocratic noneterrorist promoting39 Canada An Alhe r tla g39overnmvent Web site notes that the oil isar1dsi are the seeontl larg est source of oil O the world after Saucli Arahia The reserves t here1 1i8 hil lion harrels iarnount to 13 percent of the global total and are lahout what lraq and Russia have cornhinetl But the 0 in the tar santls isn39t really ail lt s hitu1hen p it has to he ripped out of the earth or pushed to the surface a process that itself consu1nes a lot of water and natu g 0u Producing a barrel of oil horn tar slantlsl creates more than twice the amount DllEI11lSSl0IS ofoldscl1otol oil tlri39lli1quot1g Nattinal gas is suiplposetl to he an easy form of ienergy it horns more cleanly than pEl1quotOlE39Ll111 antl the has vast supplies ln recent years tliseoreries of reserv39es loclszed in shale 1390Cli in the 0aarlts the BarnetI Shale and in the Ap palacl1ians theMar cellL1s Shale have S13L11 139E39Cl a lho orni But shale gas is also tough enter 939 The gas is protlucetl via Fracking fiquotaett1ring the rock with water and ehternica1 solvents to loosen up the gas 1nolec ulies The eI1vironn391e1f1tal risl 39ll he wat39er l39l391lXEEl with solvents could lter into TL 111dE39I39g 1 OL11 ll aquifers Ihcon veniently the Marcellus Shale overlaps with the watershed of the New York City region Ancl then therequots the niatter of earthquakesi Last year experts in Texas grew concernecl when rare seismie acti39v p was detected in areas where na39tta1ral gas drillers had heen fracking Even the cleanest sources conie with tllval Cj EDESHE The wincltturhirle farm oil Cape Cod Mass aroused the ire of waterfront hoInelowners whose rilewas would he rnairrecl by giant propellers in the distance but also by erwironrne nlta1 ists tronc erneCl ahoLit its potential impact on wildllife Proposals to pot huge solar arrays in the Mojavel Desert l IEWE pro votltetl similar green concerns Thus far we39ve deemed these rilsksoil spil1s more en1issions pollutecl water the odd ea139thqruallte lto he whorthwhil e in large ineasure hecause of the laws of stippltj and cle1nianl As the price of energy lteeps th quot g higher we re going to Clo n 1 oreantlnioife dubious tl1ings says Joseph l3tonim an assistant energy sec retary in the Clinton atl1ninistratio1 and eclitor of the inthienltial Climate Prog ress hlog But the response to the age of toL1gh oil shoulchrt he engineering tieats that allow us to chill tleeper or to liherate llyCl1 OCEL1 lJOl39lS from roclts Rather we shoultl ayjply our collective engi11ee139 ing szniiarts to guring out ways to 39l1SE39 less e39nergy ll we want to avoitlext1erne ene1 gy39we need extreme ef cievncy E MEwswEEltc eM 7 29 ES 115 Workbook Table of Contents PREFATORY MATERIAL Page 1 Origin and Utilization of the World s Energy in 1937 Chart i 2 The complex system of energy flows in the United States in 2005 Figure i 3 At a night market in Yangon NY Times photograph ii 4 Annual Solar Energy at the Earth Surface Diagram ii 5 Syllabus ix 6 Francesco Fiondella Good News Energy DiaryFrom Mis39s39iles to Megawatts xii 7 Steven Chu Carbon Capture and Sequestration xiii 8 Sharon Begley A Climate Whodunit xiv 9 William J Broad Taking Lessons from What Went Wrong xv WORKBOOK SUMMARY Chapter One lntroduction Why Study Energy Chapter Two First Law of Thermodynamics Chapter Three Second Law of Thermodynamics Energy Waste 3 Heat Engines Heat Pumps Managing Entropy for a Better Environment Chapter Four Fossil Fuels amp Hydrogen Chapter Five Strengths amp Weaknesses of Nuclear Energy Homework Problems Appendix Units amp Conversion CHAPTER ONE Introduction and Global Perspectives Page 1 Marty Hoffert It s Not Too Early 11 2 Stephen G Benka The Energy Challenge 12 3 Human Disruption Index 14 4 Don t forget long terrn fundamental research in energy 15 5 Daniel Yergin The Epic Quest for Oil Money and Power 18 6 Daniel Yergin Hydrocarbon Man 111 7 Julian Simon Energy Supply Scaremongers 121 8 Move Lower fertility a wise investment 122 9 Move Not so revolutionary 123 10 Vaclav Smil Energy at the Crossroads Global Perspectives and Uncertainties 124 11 Kingsley Davis It is People Who Use Energy 129 12 Arctic melt unnerves the experts 131 13 Philip H Abelson Need for Long Range Energy Policies 133 14 Neela Banerjee Oil s Pressure Points 134 15 T Christian Miller Blood Spills to Keep Oil Wealth Flowing 138 16 Tim Weiner Mexico Weighs Electricity Against History 141 17 Corey S Powell Black Cloud I42 39 indicates featured articles in the MIT Technology Review Magazine JulyAugust 2006 18 Matthew Wald Committed to Coal And in a Hurry Too 143 19 Climatologists Under Pressure 145 20 Spencer R Weart Reflections 146 21 Thomas L Friedman Fill Er Up With Dictators 150 The Green Revolution 151 Just Do It 152 22 Andrew C Revkin Budgets Falling in Race to Fight Global Warming 153 23 Larry Rohter Patagonians Feud Over Ways to Exploit Mighty Rivers 155 24 Jane Perlez Despite Energy Wealth Myanmar Is Mired in Dark 156 25 David Keith amp Alexander Ferrell Rethinking Hydrogen Cars 158 26 A Crude Awakening 164 27 Letters in Response to A Crude Awakening 167 28 Thomas L Friedman The Energy Wall 169 29 John J F ialka Emissions of CO2 Continues to Rise Despite Pledges 170 30 Cap and Charade C 171 31 Cait Murphy The dirty secret behind Kyoto 173 32 Jeffrey D Sachs Fiddling while the Planet Burns 175 33 Climate NonConformity 176 34 Robert J Samuelson The Worst of Both Worlds P 177 35 Thomas H Maugh I1 and Karen Kaplan Panel Affirms Global Warming 178 36 Carbon s possible future 179 CHAPTER TWO First Law of Thermodynamics Page 1 Chapter 1 Introductory Overview 1I1 2 Chapter 2 Primary Energy 118 3 Hans Christian Von Baeyer Warmth Disperses and Time Passes 1123 4 Claudia Dreifus Listening to the Climate Models and Trying to Wake 1129 5 Edward Teller The Planet Needs a Sunscreen 1130 6 Sharon Begley On the Wings of Icarus 1131 7 Can Contrails Alter Climate 1133 8 Christina Reed Hot Trails II34 9 Pollute the Planet for Climate s Sake 1135 10 Preparing to capture carbon p 1136 11 Ehrlich et al Simplified Global Energy Balance and Civilizations Contribution 1138 12 John J Gialka Do Bubbles of Champagne Die Alas No 1139 13 Environmentally Sound Helms Plant 1141 14 McNichols et al Thermoclines A Solar Thermal Energy Resource 1143 15 The Greenhouse Effect and Global Climate Change 1146 16 Greenhouse Gases and Global Warming 1157 17 Climate Change Science An Analysis of Some Key Questions 1158 18 Human Caused Forcings 1163 19 Mark Bowen The Messenger t 1164 20 Time to Act 1169 indicates featured articles in the MIT Technology Review Magazine JulyAugust 2006 21 Richard Monastersky A burden beyond bearing 1170 22 Nicola Jones Sucking it up 1173 23 Oliver Morton Great White People 1176 24 Electrical Power amp Energy Storage Comparison 1180 25 When Where Watt 1181 CHAPTER THREE Second Law of Thermodynamics Page 1 Eric A Taub A Magnetic Attraction at the Theme Park 1111 2 Shipping Charges 1113 3 The Virtue of Waste 1114 4 William C Reynolds Energy From Nature to Man 1111 1 5 The Principles of Heat Engines 11118 6 Carnot s Law and The Carnot Engine 11119 7 Debunking a Dynamo 11121 8 Atoms in Motion 11122 9 Heat Flow 11124 10 Freeman Dyson Energy in the Universe 11125 11 Energy Entropy 11132 12 Rosenfeld et al Technologies to Reduce Carbon Dioxide Emissions 11133 13 Peter F airley Power to the People 11139 14 Heat Pumps and Refrigerators 11147 15 How to Buy a Heat Pump 11149 16 Energy Efficiency 11158 17 Alvin Weinberg On the Relation Between Information and Energy Systems 11160 CHAPTER FOUR Fossil Fuels and Hydrogen Page 1 Albert A Bartlett Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crisis IV1 2 L Maugeri Oil Never Cry Wolf Why The Petroleum Age is Far From Over IV14 3 Sandra Ward Twilight for Oil IV16 4 Paul B Weisz Basic Choices and Constraints on Long Term Energy Supplies IV18 5 Albert A Bartlett Thoughts on Longterm Energy Supplies 1V24 6 Letters Longterm Energy Solutions The Truth Behind the Silent Lie IV 27 7 Kenneth Reigh Gauging the Global Fuel Tanks Size IV34 8 Neela Banerjee This Oil s Domestic but 1t s Deep and It s Risky IV37 9 Quest for Oil and Natural Gas is Turning to Increasingly remote Regions IV41 10 Andrew C Revkin Under All That Ice Maybe Oil IV42 11 Going Deep IV44 12 Risks of the oil Transition O 1V 46 13 Sabrina Tavemise Oil Prize Past Present Ties Russia to Iraq IV52 14 Bryant Urstadt The Oil Frontier IV53 15 Natural Gas IV58 16 Safety and Risk Examples from Lique ed Natural Gas and Nuclear Industries IV65 17 Douglas Jehl Supplies Lag Despite New Natural Gas Wells IV69 18 Fire and Ice Under the DeepSea Floor IV71 39 indicates featured articles in the MIT Technology Review Magazine J ulyAugust 2006 19 Electricity from Coal IV74 20 Clean Coal Technology IV 82 21 Advanced Coal Technologies IV83 22 Coal s Energy Potential is an Engineering Challenge Now IV85 23 Science panel nds fault with estimates of coal supply IV86 24 How Much Coal Remains IV 87 25 Keith Bradsher China s Boom Adds to Global Warming Problem lV 89 26 Kris Maher Coal Companies are Slowed by Severe Shortage of Workers IV92 27 Transportation Fuels IV 93 28 David Talbot The Dirty Secret IV94 29 Jeff Goodell How Coal Got Its Glow Back IV 99 30 India s energy woes go deep IV108 31 Vaclav Smil Energy at the Crossroads Fossil Fuel Status Oil IV1 10 32 Vaclav Smil Energy at the Crossroads Conclusion39 IV 1 12 33 Elizabeth Holbert Unconventional Crude IV l 15 34 Decarbonization C IV1 18 35 Joan M Ogden Hydrogen The Fuel ofthe Future IV119 36 Gustav P Dinga Hydrogen The Ultimate Fuel and Energy Carrier IV126 37 Karen Lundegaard Ford GM Make Big Push to Promote Flex Fuel Vehicle IV l30 38 Liquefied Natura139Gas Market Spawns a Glut in Ships Built to Carry the Fuel IV 132 CHAPTER FIVE Nuclear Energy and ts Environmental Interfaces Page 1 Nuclear Power VI 2 The Future of Nuclear Power V35 3 CE Till Advanced Reactor Development V 40 4 David Samuels End of the Plutonium Age V 45 5 Frank N von Hippel Plutonium and Reprocessing of Spent Nuclear Fuel V47 6 Broad et al Inquiry Suggests Pakistanis Sold Nuclear Secrets V49 7 James Dao Nuclear Study Given GoAhead Rouses Fears V 52 8 Gretchen Vogel Crime and Puny Punishment V53 9 Binding Energy per Nuclei and Mass Number V 55 10 Nuclear Reactors V56 1 1 Matthew L Wald Radioactive Waste Site A Shift in Strategy V57 12 PressurizedWater Nuclear Power Plant V59 13 Harold M Agnew Nuclear Power Can be Safe V60 14 William J Broad US Has Plans to Again Make Own Plutonium V 6l 15 Matthew L Wald The Best Nuclear Option V 63 16 Treading the nuclear fuel cycle minefield V 67 17 Lizette Alvarez F inland Rekindles Interest in Nuclear Power V 68 18 Paul Guinnessy Stronger Future for Nuclear Power V 69 19 Shai Oster Moscow Courts Beijing Over Nuclear Power V71 20 Rebecca Smith Price Tags on Nuclear Power Plants J olting V72 21 William J Board Inside an Enigma V 74 indicates featured articles in the MIT Technology Review Magazine J ulyAugust 2006 vi 22 A Nuke on the Yukon 23 Clouds of Hypocrisy PDS i 24 The Power of Nightmares 45 Mushrooms in a Nutshell Nuclear Programmesquot 3G CHAPTER SIX Homework and projects Homework 1 Homework Questions 2 Peter Huber Crude Awakening 0 A B Project Peak Oil and Oil Depletion m Kenneth S Deffreyes Hubbert s Peak The Impending World Oil i lUi l7lquot I Kjell Aleklett Oil A Bumpy Road Ahead p Red Cavaney Global Oil Production About to Peak A Recurring MyIhquot Vaclav Smith Peak Oil A Catastrophic Cult and Complex Realities William Tucker A Cartel and Its Snakeoil Fquotquot P As China roars pollution reaches deadly extremesquot APPENDICES 1 Appendix 2 Unites and Conversions 3 Glossary BACK COVER Outside Energy l li y39r4 395quot viii Russell Gold Oil Officials See Limit Looming on Production 51 Give an example of a perpetual motion machine of the second kind Explain why it is a perpetual motion machine 39 52 Write down the equations that represent the first and second laws of thermodynamics in the derivation of the Carnot efficiency shown below Also write down what each variable represents and its correct physical units Heat Engines Thermal Efficiency for a Carnot Engine In general the thermal efficiency quot 1391quot for a heat engine is 139 2 W Q Eq 323 st Using the 1 Law QH W QL Eq 322 Entropy bookkeeping where SH OH TH and SL QL TL Eq 316 aampb 17 nd And the 2 Law Sproduced SL SH QLTL QHTH 0 Eq 318 19 amp Carnot efficiency 139Carnot A T TH l TL TlI where A T TH TL Eq 324 53 The four types of coal are Anthracite Bituminous Subbituminous and Lignite a Which type has the highest sulfur content and a high heat content Which type has the lowest heat content b Which is the best type of coal from an environmental perspective 54 Name one environmental benefit of coal gasification 55 a What is methane hydrate b Where is it found 56 What is the Marchetti HC curve and its environmental signi cance 57 Define integrated resource planning 58 What is meant by the terms clathrate and coal by wire 59 Briefly summarize the major points of the following articles all on Gaucho Space St quotMining for Oilquot and Oil Production in the 21 Century The article Oil Production in st the 21k Century discusses four major technological advances in oil production describe these four tech advances 60 The following questions are from the article The End of Cheap Oil by Campbell see Gaucho Space a Campbell states that there are three vital numbers needed to project future oil production List and describe these numbers b Why does Campbell state that the only correct way to total up reserve numbers is to add the mean or average estimates of oil in each eld This mean estimate if often W VI6 referred to as proved and probable or PS0 61 Answer the following questions regarding exponential growth as it is discussed in Bartlett s article Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crisis a Draw a diagram showing production curves for exponential growth without scarcity exponential growth with scarcity and sustainable production b What does the area under the scarcity curve equal c What does the area under the exponential curve equal d Which curve represents solar energy production e Which one represents coal production f Which one represents American farming production 62 List four advantages of the uidized bed combustion over traditional coal buming in power plants 63 Read the chapter from lIaking Technology Work on natural gas Chapter 10 reprinted in reader chapter IV5 8 and list and describe four advantages of natural gas 64 Refer to Making Technology Work on safety and risk Chapter ll reprinted in reader page I65 and summarize the discussion on the safety and risk of LNG industry 65 Refer to Huber s WSJ article commenting on the energy aspects of President Bush s State of the Union address to Congress Describe the three bridges that Huber uses as a metaphor What is the metaphorical function of these bridges page VI10 66 Draw an illustration of the McKelvey Box What are the two criteria that govern where any particular portion of a given resource lies on the McKelvey Box Distinguish between reserves and resource see page IV62 67 ANWR Internet Assignment Read Visit the following websites andor do an internet search for ANWR and answer the following questions httpwwwanwrorg httpwwwanwrcom httpwwwsierracluborgwildlandsartid httparticfws gov a Discuss the pros and cons on drilling for oil in ANWR b Are you for or against drilling ANWR Support your answer with facts from the websites c How do the websites content differ Do the agendas of the site host come through 68 Some oil industry reports state that 1020 gigabarrels of oil Gbbl are the proven reserves at the beginning of 1998 These reports state that at the current global production VI7 rue aE Iquotn1Ijil E11 3 i Iiihfla El jnILI1 nlquotliL1uE mil C1quotI39LLlL1 g39g391rmi1n 1n n11ii39uII emL 1tIg39i 139r 4 ja39I 39l39 a1quot139 aInLl Ag llrzjflI3raE j iaf1grq I3i2IL391 l 3939339339 1 Jf I iamp1l I1g L7I E 1f11irw E EE iquotIquoti1 REE r391miJ1g WIT39itu2 LEuwa1 39EquotL3939 IrI r11Ili Izmir avnea n 1 lL1IEIEELI1iE Ii39hi KL E3 3se1139 39n1ujn1s rquotw Wlu 11 is this nLIInlrrr uEIa1aHi39F39 Hc5iqlf5 jquot7i5E39iga1t nsiI1g n 3911 LmEt1quot I39uj 1 t1 If i i II pr dums iilectritii 15 1Jt if39 l1l1u 39J 5I39i1niaIe jn1 Equot3I1fE nLI1quot1t r i1u1K1quotNquot39 fa 3 aE E ifi iig In llI1 Iii3IIl5li 1539gai139fI39I i Iquotl sTlEeiaj 39u m t I Iltn 111mI 9fEiglE1iIi EII I m1m iww1rmr1139a imrarf 1 t39n1j1nIiEar El39Ir39 2 rjg139 MEI Imam 1nL l ampsmIlI In 7iquot39E n 391ii iE IE L lai1I L P mrrIr M an Eiginmantssr nwI s1a1 quotH quot39aquot39equotJmr is It a1rucx39n r nauIaar I 11I1r139n Isnquot 1aiil ift39uj it it r1eLtrl39P39 311 i5 saquot I39aIIi I34 LL II1ug39IliHg us I KgL391139 r I fnaU Ii391IEfi r 139 h Wzan p 1I I3t 1 a39iJ39I5I1 l I7IE i391I i l a1ai1jquot1t2TTtIA Iafu if u nmaiIa1 L mlt39rm39 i IquotEiE 1i 111 r l liigghi quotequotr39T39li aJmm39Equot TF3 wtma i li Iquot E1jai1n mLu 39IllTi1 Ig quot1nm L FL2E t iampE 39l1swiLurIfu39 film 539yEE LllquotI39E aha mu11m1 iquotnaIda WE Lin1am39rnuTIi ilmn rim i39vZ3911i 39Eif nI39 aan li1mL rim 39Ei isur1 1a1J F lnw wliar is 39E I IE n11miLy uf391t1 JFI ElIIL39Il39 13 pn11uLn hciil WJE11 i5 fm 1quotI n39Ii iut391 539I1n li1aLL quotJInulLLa1a tnls m 1lquotquot T5 J5ii1g wumI i i If39i llquotIE nal LLtii s39Ei1 I1 i3 FE i139E39IIr39 X L E I77quotquot Fur an nLInI 1rn39ri39 la 39W39I uFE H Mina 1quot39Li E znr mria111 light i139E1 39EfElquot 139z39urtiE 39E L1 W111iquot is I 1t FUE Jfm lji139IE JEJ39E39E 1391cnhr1quots39E39 L 3 35quotinE Ifhi iiHJi Il39IIlquotrl I1Inu Iaa39in nLj IJHTHIE H1mI i1a ll EI13 3iJ39 39 IE39i1LL H quotr f JjaA 39 Ilia rE1 sttI139 iiquotE39i139iiquot39 i mE39L ifihw c rnrl r runzia 391rE I ly i115I 1 3 i1 r m H39I1vE r 393 1 quotnr 39mquotu u1d Elm 1 wa39 3 silm L1aI quotI E3 I39faT lhi11 wl risr LIE IL E sI gE fiI395 i39ir I I i L39 ati quotLlI b1iIxL f39Iuml39LIIznI39 llulilln ljh1quot tLJI quot39EZJ391T39Tsv ll1 JIquot E alim I11L hIe r17l3ILquot L nIquotquot II1IInJI EI39Ii39iE1L r W l1m 139uquotm 39i a39rp1Inr jms I142 TTe I HH39 3923 i L13IiZ39 115 I If IuIL39 tirTT39m 739 E3 jH391Eii flu Hill Li1 LL 39quotI 39liTJ E391IT1tfLw Ei quotlquot nlEL E39l LIfII l39a39I3939quot 39quotWjiquotIlJ 1I7JZJ39i i39I139HTiquotquot39iiHH31139quotfquotrllF 7I 139E1sI 77A in Bil CEEIEEKL TQEU afu if Eihlillli Elm 39 ir39rr L yi n ry lquot1J1i11 EE39i EITIEE n1395 HIE qvLanIin11 l39uEnw ztmn i Eijlll 39Eii1jli aa39i ir151 IE11 u g LJi5If a lri nn 1 E13155l jli a ETlI1jjn mT Jquot39 H1 urnurgy g fIfi39IiZri LI L1 i111 quot fquotii LjJlE iiiL1 2 quotiquotquotquot39h39m393 l P P1g fn1I 3uisEnljn k 39 273 rair1 quotIuI39 1E1quotmn Ii 1 TLLa1aA39gjguquot pier isszwziee I if T CU per Jn1i39l m139I39tJEI gjf 11imsi 11mwr1I 111quot E39quotIII is ggiw1k1 in urniI5 w1Fg ig39E 1nufyc1r VIE I WlVi 1E Vgt39nH39nquotIqI39ia L1LL S Hiilii iiuatcs 11 m wlmn In wig IJ1cal ArJ1e39rgg quot mi393uuie quot VIr39 quoti39I rmzl 39II u 1f39IIi39g nIiiI nu aaquot tJ1at Lan uuiaimwe im L 1i EEw23939 T39 J LISP he imnr a1aE c 1a39I1ftJs w 1I i it Ir Elm m umw ETiI E Ls5 quotTm 39i39I quotiTg 3quot EEL Dani 111 39T1m E nwr i39 uI2n1n mm Jm i jl anr Vf 7i5ria11quot3 Ejxpni11 ifIT1r azghznn 1TE IE39i i iE39J LC1f lh2 EaLurTnTiin1g wzwua W1agnTquot aiuncu mu r nsng I39nfr1l5 num1 quot HI 39W JaLII E 11E p1 irnquot a r39 Iii 1395irquot the 39T rI39H i z 1i1L391quotranui aL39 r quot39 quotWI39quot1Ln39si EAEEEQH it i392f FI EI5f frnI11 mnl amlug gig ilfiziss iquotj1mn139nm1I39quot H2 5 rm F lF39rm39i I 39quotII Ti39 i39J ra 39gsr 139ia 321 17n39I i HIT Ha 1139iE I39i quot 33 P J r1saJ iEquot qwm a39 1 lnrre drizr car l39iurnr nncmr393 I Thre F3 EiaEL 39 ncmtl hr Igw i39ii quot1JIE rII THE Ln4wiI1g rIuliz1ra ERiF H53 rmn39JlIi1 Iu Lin L WEI r39L r 439 quotrr 1ugtaquotrT39139Jn Ls39 J uw r ljquotEi ia iElt1L 5 i quot39e391 ua m1s II1 m jur pmnuumcr nu391ITir 2L39 4u1quot111 irs39ErijijquotE Eli W i1uaa was Ilia iquot1 jL1I prnmt Iquot 2 l391u Ir39n 1aaIn 1nJcra1rI sKEcLn1139iiy WI1r I39 39 Ei39l 39H39TIi Tquot39mrIfic 1Fzti1 EL EII39 EiW F H5 41 Wlmi was Lllh iJm1amzn iai u1Ttn a1Iiquot rh2 Ti3HI39iIiZ39ii5SE R39nrgg I n rJm ij quotT W m quotTV p What 11m ils ire1 Ii11iin naJawJ39 lE l i 3i1E quot rF Wlfizltij n1rawi nLu4rLLAu ilisL T Wa a39quotquotII39iquotll39TI 1j 39 nm1 ms UI7 Q n quotn ILI 4 A 139 Winn p p 39n quotnquot A Climate Vifladlunit 3If2iEI1EE nails quotH19 bLa1I1 E game IEquotEquot HHKEHUH iIlHi IaI quoti TILJ quotF Hilil lii 39aquotquotJ391 aIL7quotI L5 lquota iEiJIia Jll lilml 139 is39 Zli iit39lquoti ri 39quotur39l21IaI w1r39n uiiIag E5 L 2LLL1aJL mp g39yIlEi 11H i E39liI 39Ii39 in1 Eh1 EinLa1 iziwa n391L11l 15139 x39iiimtu H3 EifILi3iiE inIai E139rii iLIJiiIa IJ39gampi ii39gi1ECTFIETIE 115339 E quot39739s39 I391 iE 39quotu ia ELi39IEquotquotj 39fr g39LF39 11J5IIjrEiifl IJ139uI7 aquotii3eIquotl I3quot 1 39ini1ara 1L5 JquotIm ri1 W1gIquot1 iiue El 111 5i53pE inL iquotquotm i39i1 i JTl 39a E12 s1739d quotIFlmll 1jr ajaziy l 39II f139I I Iquot i 339lfI39lFI39 39Iquot ri39I 39nwrf r 1n ar1 T Er391 1quoti1w 155 r ziiiy min fiilla 339esiif39 39 ismrj 1 I391n1 39l E39mi E1i39 IaIa 31i39 lii ll I139iuy 539iquotlIf39l1 ii IIHF a rlirlr quotl E11 quotl1Irr1iI1gfia39aa1 iL39L lg3 iEquotE 1 i E II1quoti iquoti39quot L39L39eL daiquotquot quottrim i39 EE1JquotI quotESEE ij iB39LiIZE39rHLiJa IJ 1rrquothjif quotlEIfIi ll391 E39i1 E39l39 shag gi jug i EIEII139 1i Lii39 liest year an Iquot EI quotLiiE39I39i umquot wi39iquotEJ1 3939n39u15lj TLELlt7 II n siiif i39 mi Finll39 Liin3 Em x I139 tl fi Jl tun hn rl it39 rITI39Iquotlquot39 FFIITEEIFI an quotiquoti quot i1i3 l1EI sIa539IIT1quot39F HE I 139ii39EJlIIIZi1LZlI39a39iquotE7I139 2rZII Ia1quot1 fZI139r wag t391r 39u 5aquotI139fl1139 ua rIiLEilEEi um E I2i39iiZI i Ii 1TI1 l rziEquot I hus IEIH lAquot quota39 1mLLi1Et39 EFLELIIZEIIIIE aw mi0EI1 ihuir I11IIquoti FJIE39iquotIiTI h i39 iI39IE39I39 jFa 5 wlL1quot I r i39r13r1m H LEiITLITtEI239uiE39l L39nu391E ii1 r39 i391IIt139nn 5u1L ui 9111quot mm uaare11Hnm1e IEI139Ia 1IIquot5 LIarja1 u1n I1L1nrdu2wl 39 I1 ns139i am I39Hn39 mjgt Lra39 w39i 3939 ai39i5 I 1quota39 EhE 1quotn39as5Lil nL39 lI uua I1inTnLirL 1 39 IfquotIi 39Trm 1TruJ5 i5l5 hi hsn IiIaL ums amnnu 3II139i Iiflil t1g39 553iglr Krwrz39I Eu rshaiaiiijri5 rli E39I 39LEl 7I J Einili EWEEquot Jai Equot ran 391n r is mlrljzrlmie t39l1mf E39IEE E9i ifEeIj e ie1 1135 mi glrtia1a incnraa lj1 ampE3 Elis 1LInnTimLiaITir5l 139llI391iiI1u39 i 1 IiEilEI i39Iii393quot1 i39ii39 E 3i39 gasca mninir ijhm HE39rLE 1ELrIIIj l lT39T39EiIiuauTl 39 L39i 15ELiE u39Lun li5E 53 11 Wang zi 1flsIII i i39i i 39iJ jult 39 agquot5iI11In 1Ini39gg39 5EEl 1 l quotIIquotI iiiquot5 lg2f39E39l l39lfj FI1391mE Fh L1J1quoti PP 39I f hniqiIE I atulral IT39Ei1lE E5 lsulae aaI1quot 1 eplair391 139erarIu39I j1eLi waves mdug E u mitlmr Ext rsame wiea hia r 4IlliILE jquotI39 E1E11IfiE1 1 risk ItquotL39quotiEILL au39i lii h39lLiiE iLcT 39fI 39a sinJ rnug1 3g1IiaI rniiua1 41quot E1 r w li1nquotr 1t J39iquotILF 1T i39quot39I quotJ Ii 511I n395T wru1391c i F1 mi i139ul I1i I39l Jhrnitta irLlr Irs 3gr 1fn1i139 I3E39IJm1h E iz 1Jt39ihie739L Iiliw lIIaquotLg Iquotia39 I4 i39ifa1quotg iian 1Iu diim 9 im1iT gsniwiarn1 iquot11 3939nquot I uIim m5 and l1imquotiquotJ fr1Lgrs nu21snl wn E1rr Tilw Lir uJh3939 ia EH i e39I Ii39Iwv Inw5 quotrf39u139agii r21 fIii1 IZi39iii39 e EJi39I39I quot cLquotquot 39quot 39 39I 5i39viEiE I Emw mgzsgqin39i sIJ i1 39ai H39 lfLn 51 i1iaar39a1Ar7 mI39 139in quot139I I1rL39 T39 iiquotr1quot iE iI i mi E1quotarmlr 4aF L1awrvn l39i ta l Fquot39 l39I i 39JfaF39iJquot P392si1f1maLI Zamp1E1q rtmi Elliquot in39tI39lJh5ii iIi39 39531quot39quoti1ifI IFiEi39Iquotl39ifIIL Fquot39IEquotIl1i3 n 39 quotrrlfigquot9 1139m1 nimIiai39eas am i l39 i39a 1mii13939T3939Iia i39L39 I EEEi itl1 39iuti1n7 qIuuJ4s39 am Iquot5 ii139 1 quot inii5 quot I39 Ti tI Iquot39 TIi r wr hi L1ge39i39 F L f Iaquot5 i H i r1 a 1F rquot r ir tiampEEudtquot3 l quotvEl39quoti39 39quotl1 i39T i39JFll39si39f EritL175Tlr i3939a lm fi ifI quotll139l5r Z39eiIJi Iilm 39iIlIi lVLJl r IgiL hi ill 1a39 w5q quotiampquotL Irri l39n n39I1trrui39r i ru ig39i I1iI1m 1 39LI39 tum ii a l 1 iuIguaf srtAi zgm uquot w1I lT1 I1quotini5ilrmwITIH I 1EiifiaI Mir F Etly y 5i I391iI e1L E1151 15I3 Afirrizquot 39nquota1ggE ini 1i5391IHquotl1Ti msI1 rILIatl1Iq 111ri m rquotEI1p mil r iniwnirr i39L L39f39lquotl E in 1 1 J rge l iIi39li3IquotEl IquotmquotI1I 3939a39ii iI I39i il 1 i1 Lu 1m I1 n1 L1 gru xrHT1T 39I lEr3939 Ei E39 my Langm t39IquotL i v iilm marl H1IiIquot39II 39if1 w391 p1a39nrnIi39 139j H nnu Equotuau39 IEhca rwtD 1u39nm3 l3uiI r1n El39n39I39 wT39 I 39 ini i39 I39 fI Lh m itfimEjl id I lat3 IIquotE i7i1fIii wEquot liizflt TL wn1iaIIll l El EJiI 39EEI sm I 39 iwziu r 55 i1 nr f3r Lu lift 3II II39139iL1391 s3911I5amp5d 7 11H ml 395 atrrn 1ml i i I5n1quotquotquot I 5ru i in1 ELIE 31quot hill NLIii7 Pr EI1Lt1Aquot l 39l139r1quotu39quot5 nTJ1r1t139tn t39ill 39u 1 iI39aIigE am ZlfilElquot393 aft1i1ii ng HfiE IE I r 139iil liL39 law IHiiquot39 nii EiT aquotiuquot iI395 n1lFITanr F iqzi ii1I1j it ir iugE3939iI 1riri rnL1glIiia Tli n39 Equot A 39i39r L TI if1Li l ILi Izk l na1j1im39Ini 39tii tna if iu gig 15 inr3911iH riT1ET39sI liI11quot1Hi iua a Ims EFPFT3 5E1FlTF393 39i g39 lih quot n igErI39nrEnitiquot uni IlI1E I39iI quotIi 39u v 39 E V I 1 quot33 7 3 ll 2 Li 1111 fquotZ1u1E 139139Tr 39IEM15 ri 5 1 a L171Iaj11T391LLL Ij39a sa iaI i39 5 HIiEi539iiag iliiui nI irt39 a ifl i i1mi u LlViir1 E ljluji39S iI I uJLlriI iquot1inn11 139 rIgima39 I r11a 39 IHWI I iILiJ4iL1LI 39irI39 1 iaim I39iLIgIL39rlM393ir1airag has eaIi1ui3939a39t39i Ii1iE Hitquot iim ijfl g11EI 1i1 391I1 a Tul Ima tI1 I1T Bii JIIT a39rm39rl F15is7 ar39F39 E i11 TTquotquot gtJ39rEn1am1Jne n Fu3uL zsml amt 39 quoti ijisc n1ia in I iiiu Imi39a mlliml i1quot illxal lquotiiquotiquot39 quotL lgImilquot marl wi1L1EflJ i i PTIi Elie lE139IjE lquot Eai7I1iJiquoti39h 39f JEIIJM Lljim Em law 39 Emj in 39tI Ih III HT E393wf393939 1112 quotn squot1 aiI fl i39a39139iE Es I i31a lam aw ilurmr25 wI1391mn TI rsaiT12 r39I39 39l5iiE39l39t I39i I39g39 r 1 39Ei139 iJigh1HI39ieaIIfIiiIiquotI1 I Iigquota39uIgEIsElam u t39t fur ia39IaI39 n11fiI1gr Liw aac39rnrii Zquota11r1l1 E1I39nE 511121 215 Ij 5aiziii39J a4tquota39ma 5rma j s39a239 iflflllii L aJLil iEll1139rv1 hill aquot irii39 39 ilE Ii I3939 iH39i lLi ii inaiLr iquot1m in him 1iJFfI n ia i391i E39 EI 1 lE39a3939 5amp5 ifuwn twain azbuits Fm hIEiI39 l Ijr quotS elI39J Lc39 i hiiEi11iI 1ILliI39m II1 411 2nug l5gL I53a ItIia39IIaI39s 5I I15 arittlgm mii 39mrii3ita39iTir1I1 f39J139LaL LII ewT3i amall Llriu J ai1 EI39l mlquot sit39wquotli 1i 39E i iuwL39 quotEquoti39I39139Ii i ij39fiIuiaquotn E11iniuui3 rm39l lf sl rEi ifllzif if 39lJ1LL rquot E39E3939 LnI I 51jquot 39 quot1 39iJLa 1JnL1t 3 in Equot 1uIIumn u I LIiEi EiiilUquottI 39EIquotirL39 wsrmi quot il3939quot39i i il1 Iquot391r39quotquotji I I i Halquot Sin in u E nih O 1ash39EiEi 5e Lha prHiLni1 n 139 5 ilf ill 1 mar ii39lJ1i39quot39jiJI i L11 i l539uEE lI IHii iEiii39 LfI31 IiL 39quot Im rI3I1ltIiII G nu i 139IF I9quotga mi tar1Wm by Him IaW E1 39iiL aII215 i5L1rEWat3 iinIiJi1I39imnI rikinliitag jua lEiij iniei IMsaHi isru l393m1vtZ1 n Lu C hirIIF5 quotuP39nE quoti39q r5 3111391L Ii1Ki39 1111quot nunr1l mlSJ by the SrnLL439ra Flil5FquotZ Eu i rnQ1 I EF1i gi39liI39i MCIL Ellquota iQgIh39lquotil597 iiil39 Iiilillll pimple J391f39i15e in I1JIie I2539H39IifE i iI I y Ifr L39ulLii39 iJI57i 39E jquotviELi 39ie 39 EEiquotII39iL E EE EE Una HE w E wmum wm 3 mud maw HnEEEmE E m n 23 mmm hmEu m5 m qwm m md mmmgbn mmEm E EHrH mE mmmHmn um EEE mH m m nmmm EA m r u n g m mE uEn wmm p HWhmw m m mE nH E m E mn n mm EmmE EmE5 wnn Em mFEE gunm Hm inn Ers mEw P d pX 3 m EEE mmEE uw u m mmm mmEm H5u gmmp HmEuuhnEm wEH nE n gm pHm E mnH P Etn 2 EnL HuEu 3 Pm E A mum E Ew uEh W mE mnn m H w mam Eu mmn EmEE E uHm pn m Mun hm E nFEh nEm E H u 553 Em gEw E 2 33 Ewmh z m mEEm m EHa4 m EHmm mFanE m 3 g mnu muWH wE 3 EEHm m m5uEq MumEE Em h EEmumuEm Em H Em E waE gEm2 EmrE E uuEEEmH mi En m 93 mm c E E5 uF m q Em maEuEEE Eam ma pm H mEmnnm mmm Hd Lu Ha amen Em ma E mE wuu t aEnnEH uEuE dmmmi 53 mEmmm E an m wrHE mE ma E EE Ew mgE HE mEmuEmwE n5E mwEna E E w amm 3 man mwn nmmEaM mEn E wu Ea nm Em E EEn w E u H E mm M E E A u utuw im n uHH1 Pr E uH mE Ea E H mmc u EH 5 E E uwEu muE 3 m nmE 5n u EE m mE E E mn 3 E HmE n wn mm wuEEucam H wwuFD P E aEEamEw E 5 E Hu HE EnE E wmwuum BE nmmmms m mum wmgEEm n amp m um5E m an wEw E wtE a Em me mm 3 am E Q E m EmE wm n 5353 m En m mn mw EEM nmEquot E EE n 3 35 in E emu E mmnLu mEm nn P EammmE um aaag nuEE mE E m n EE w Em EH mmmM im ma a E Ew mnu n m En nmEn 59 Mm MH nEm mmEm mm MEH mEum E mmmntmwam p E ma a E EuE H 5 EHEmE m E Ema E ME qEEnE EHquot EE mn H nE mEEEH aw E5 33 C EuEu EHu E uE Em EH E Ec o E H m Em mnn Ema mwnuuE E L m E Q nw3 mmmaE E gm HmEE Eummqs E E u 2 m m 5m m mm Em EmmE 3 mi EE m H Eurum ME 3 CH3 3 H EE E nEcB wmEan EE mmn mE W u nE E5 2 350 8 a m f Em m w am S mam EHHm m4mH 4aa mmuw q n m wwuEa umHEn p EEE nnmu w E Eu E m usquot nEu ww P 3 um Emma aEHEhmHn n Em nm mi 92 EEEmm m ErnE e mw mEEmuHmau E 39 uEu EEE Em mu H q Em mH E 4 EEEQ 2 5 U P m muw E EmEEEum E n cm En m mam ame wn m q E EE E E EEgE EH 55 EampE EHmm m Em E mm mEnu mEE Emm E m EH EEa mmu wdm E uam sm m mu puuHEm 22 m m m m 2 5 m m E C H mm mEE mF m EmE wE Hn m m E5 m mm P E ph p in m q E mnE 5 pa ummmm M nah L L uE 0Q mEmE Em Emma i m HE Equot E5 6 5 E m 4HmhE L y P Hi nmEE m n m as Em m H E Pgm Am mEu mmu m mnmmm HEM m5 u E 343 E m E Ew Em E mu 0 Eh m mam mE Hu 333 E mw mm wmm mm m E 53 m nE namp E E mes E G M u mm mn m g mm mmm wgE m5Pm mmEH mm p Em Y LH B 4335 3 wEE n mag Em x 3 35 Hmun Ea3 P EEMuu E5 EE n Em E n E Hnn ma mm 3 mmm mHmnun HEMn E mEtE mama E Emu P na E3 E Emm an E E u a FEn 5 Equot mam EHE Em a HE 8 mu unmu 5 o P mam hmu wmmwmnmm Eh mE H uE E33 Em mm m E EgaE L n E E Eun n an m Em uE u ummE p O P uE E E35 E5 Ew A 32 E mnm P mnHwnE E E E mmm am mmmmEwH n Eni m m mzwa n m WmEh mmar n E P E EEEM Pf EEn E mm E 5mE w u E nEE wEw mEiB E 3 Enm Eh gnH nm u 0Y ME mbmu mhnE E mEaaH 9 amp H nw m wn S Eh m wmm mHm muE w 0 Hma H 5 w mE E HE E uE Em mag mEemSl z wE H E nE C an mm mm ms mm d d q Liquid Fuels from Natural Gas Natural gas is cleaner and more plentiful than oil New ways to convert it to liquid form may soon make it just as cheap and convenient to use in vehicles by Safaa A Fouda ecently countless California mo torists have begun contributing to a remarkable transition Few of these drivers realize that they are doing something special when they tank up their diesel vehicles at the lling station But in fact they are helping to wean America from crude oil by buying a fuel made in part from natural gas Diesel fuel produced in this uncon ventional way is on sale in California because the gas from which it is derived is largely free of sulfur nitrogen and heavy metals substances that leave the tailpipe as noxious pollutants Blends of ordinary diesel fuel and diesel synthe sized from natural gas currently pro duced commercially by Shell in Indone sia meet the toughest emissions stan dards imposed by the California Air Resources Board But natural gas is not only the clean est of fossil fuels it is also one of the most plentiful Industry analysts esti mate that the world holds enough read ily recoverable natural gas to produce 500 billion barrels of synthetic crude more than twice the amount of oil ever found in the US Perhaps double that quantity of gas can be found in coal seams and in formations that release gas only slowly Thus liquid fuels de rived from natural gas could keep over all production on the rise for about a decade after conventional supplies of crude oil begin to dwindle Although global stocks of natural gas are enormous many of the deposits lie far from the people in need of energy Yet sending gas over long distances of ten turns out to be prohibitively expen sive Natural gas costs four times as much as crude oil to transport through pipelines because it has a much lower energy density The socalled stranded gas can be cooled and compressed into a liquid for shipping by tanker Unfor 92 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN March 1998 tunately the conversion facilities required are large and complex and because lique ed natural gas is hard to handle the demand for it is rather limited But what if there were a cheap way to convert natural gas to a form that re mains liquid at room temperature and pressure Doing so would allow the en ergy to be piped to markets inexpen sively If the liquid happened to be a fuel that worked in existing vehicles it could substitute for oilbased gasoline and diesel And oil producers would stand to pro t in many instances by sell ing liquid fuels or other valuable chem icals made using the gas coming from their wells Right now the gas released from oil wells in many parts of the world holds so little value that it is either burned on site or reinjected into the ground In Alaska alone oil companies pump about 200 million cubic meters roughly seven billion cubic feet of natural gas back into the ground daily in large part to avoid burdening the atmosphere with additional carbon dioxide a worrisome greenhouse gas But recent technical advances have prompted several oil companies to con sider building plants to convert this nat ural gas into liquid form which could then be delivered economically through the Alaska pipeline On the Arabian Pe ninsula the nation of Qatar is negotiat ing with three petrochemical companies to build gas conversion plants that would exploit a huge offshore eld a single reservoir that contains about a tenth of the world s proved gas reserves And Norway s largest oil company Stat oil is looking at building relatively small modules mounted on floating platforms to transform gas in remote North Sea elds into liquids Although these ef forts will use somewhat different tech nologies they all must address the same fundamental problem in chemistry mak ing larger hydrocarbon molecules from smaller ones The Classic Formula The main component of natural gas is methane a simple molecule that has four hydrogen atoms neatly arrayed around one carbon atom This symme try makes methane particularly stable Converting it to a liquid fuel requires rst breaking its chemical bonds High temperatures and pressures help to tear these bonds apart So do cleverly de signed catalysts substances that can fos ter a chemical reaction without them selves being consumed The conventional indirect approach for converting naturaglg gas to liquid form relies on brute forceiFirst thefchemiczil bonds in methane are broken using teart1 heat and a nickelbased rgataglysti to produce a mixture of carbqnTin1ng1 oxide and hydrogenknovviti as syngas or more formally synthesis gas This process is called steam reformin v 5 The second step in theiprocluction of liquid fuels or other valuable petro chemicals from syngas uses a method invented in 1923 by Franz Fischer and Hans Tropsch During World War II Germany harnessed this technique to produce liquid fuels using syngas made from coal and atmospheric oxygen thus establishing a reliable internal source for gasoline and diesel This FischerTropsch technology has allowed Sasol in South Africa to pro duce liquid fuels commercially for de cades using sgyt1g2ts dgrived frorriccral The company uses the same basic tech nique today syngas bglowgrt over a penta lyst made of cobaliinicjkejl oriiir ititi1tran forms into hydrocarbons Conveniently the FischerTropsch reac tion gives off heat and often this heat is Liquid Fuels from Natural Gas LARRY MAYER Liaison lriternarioaval 4 EMISSIONS RELATIVE TO CONVENTIONAL DIESEL PERCENT I We F15F39lE39TB9FT t 39P FLFB ll39AT 393 lFF 100 p 39 so ff 40 3 Hvonocanisows 39 CARBON used to drive the oxygen compressors needed to make syngas just which liquids emerge from the re action depends on temperature For ex ample running a reaction vessel at 330 to 350 degrees Celsius 626 to 662 de grees Fahrenheit will primarily produce gasoline and ole ns building blocks of ten used to make plastics A cooler 180 to 250 degree C operation will make predominantly diesel and waxes In any case a mixture results so a third and nal step is required to re ne the prod ucts of the reaction into usable fuels Re ning synthetic crudes derived from gas is in many respects easier than work ing with natural crude oil Synthetic crude contains virtually no sulfur and has smaller amounts of cancercausing compounds than are found in conven tional oil So the nal products are pre mium quaity fuels that emit fewer harmful substances A Partial Solution his brute force method of convert ing gas to liquids is reliable but it is expensive because it uses so much en ergy Conventional steam reforming compresses methane a fwater 5 rboarstr itirnies nnirrnal atmospheric pressure and heats these reactants to about 900 degrees C And one must add more heat still to coax the energyhun gry reaction continuously along This extra heat comes from injecting a small amount of oxygen into the mixture which combusts some of the methane and as an added bene t makes more syngas Chemists call this latter ma neuver partial oxidation In general syngas is generated using 94 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN March 1998 20 39i39 v 395 A A 0 MONOXIDE iiwlrnoetii Pxinricuixresu OXIDES various combinations of steam reform ing and partial oxidation In most cas es the process requires large quantities of oxygen and oxygen is costly Exist ing methods of separating oxygen from air rely on refrigeration to cool and liq uefy it an energyintensive and expen sive manipulation Hence lowering the cost of oxygen is the key to making syn gas cheaply Fortunately recent developments promise to revolutionize the way oxy gen is produced over the next few years One strategy is simply to work with air instead of pure oxygen Syntroleum Corporation in Tulsa has developed a way to make liquid fuels using blown air and methane for the reforming step followed by FischerTropsch synthesis At sites where natural gas is suf ciently cheap for example places where it is now being ared the process should prove pro table even at current crude oil prices Together with Texaco and the English company Brown 8C Root Syntroleum plans to build a commercial plant that will use this technique within two years Several other private companies uni versities and government research labo ratories are pursuing a wholly different approach to the oxygen problem they are developing ceramic membranes through which only oxygen can pass These membranes can then serve as l ters to purify oxygen from air Though still dif cult and expensive to construct laboratory versions work quite well They should be commercially available within a decade Such materials could reduce the cost of making syngas by about 25 percent and lower the cost of producing liquid HARMFUL VEHICLE EMISSIONS were lowered somewhat in 1993 when US regu lations required that diesel fuel be refonnu lated to reduce pollution Fuel derived from 39 natural gas using FischerTropsch synthesis creates even fewer emissions than reformu lated diesel fuels by 15 percent These savings would accrue because the production of syn gas could be done at temperatures about 200 degrees lower than those currently used and because there would be no need to liquefy air V1th cheap and plen tiful oxygen partial oxidation alone could supply syngas This rst step would then release energy rather than consume it My Canadian colleagues and I along with researchers at the University of Flo rida are now attempting to create a dif ferent kind of ceramic membrane that would offer yet another advantage The membranes we are trying to develop would remove hydrogen from the gas mixture driving quotthe partial oxidation of methane forward and providing a stream of pure hydrogen that could be used later in re ning the nal products or as an energy source itself We also expect to see signi cant im provements soon in the catalysts used to make syngas In particular researchers at the University of Oxford are studying metal carbides and my colleagues at the Canadian Center for Mineral and Ener gy Technology are investigating large pore zeolites Both materials show great promise in reducing the soot generated during operation a problem that not only plugs the reactor but also reduces the activity of the catalysts over time Cheaper than Oil lthough the prospects for such brute force methods of converting natu ral gas to liquid fuel improve every day more ingenious techniques on the hori zon would accomplish that transforma tion in a single step This approach could potentially cut the cost of conver sion in half which would make liquid fuels produced from natural gas actual ly less expensive than similar products re ned from crude oil Early efforts to achieve such direct conversion by using different catalysts and adding greater amounts of oxygen had produced mostly disappointment The hydrocarbons that were formed proved more reactive than the methane supplied In essence they burned up Liquid Fuels from Natural Gas 3 V I 39 3 I 3939 quot I 139 rrir 392rr N t 0 J EF Iml I L 1quot 39 CQlfE Sl0N P T i T J3939 quot s39 39I3952 7 39 5 39 R r r 39 L I car and I 397 J 9xy39gen39 9r O sbmnarirs rnrroleum q rquot39 faster than they were produced Unless the product is somehow removed from the reaction zone yields are too low to be practical Fortunately researchers have recently found ways to circumvent this problem The trick is to run the reaction at com paratively mild temperatures using ex otic catalysts or to stabilize the product chemI39cally or to do both For example chemists at Pennsylvania State Univer sity have converted methane to metha nol directly using a socalled homoge neous catalyst a liquid that is thorough ly mixed with the reactants and held at temperatures lower than 100 degrees C And Catalytica a company in Moun tain View Calif has achieved yields for direct conversion that are as high as 70 percent using a similar scheme Its liq uid catalyst creates a relatively stable chemical intermediate methyl ester that is protected from oxidation The linal product a methanol derivative is easi ly generated with one subsequent step MethanolalsIt kI1QHtI1as wood alco hol is valuableibecajuse it can be readi lyconverted to gasoline or to an octane boosting additive And in the near fu ture methanol either used directly or transformed first into hydrogen gas could also serve to power fuelcell vehi cles on a wide scale Thus nethanolcan be 13531 ltl 5lsi1392quot71 Y l T1liFMIIEQEY for storing ai1t1ttansnrtins energy Moreover the reactions used to syn thesize methanol can be readily adjust ed to churn out diesel alternatives such as dimethyl ether which produces far fewer troublesome pollutants when it burns So far dimethyl ether like pro pane has found little use as a transpor tation fuel because it is a gas at room Liquid Fuels front Natural Gas Wu u eu u pv t Uu 2 I mm mariners iduring 1ate rIvfsii is39iiisi ETl1ii 39i ti iiIlfSt i5quotsrnthesizes PU Ej ruo miimi quot1largesmolecules lri Istsyiigatsaaa theft ira step re quot nesquotor chefiiiirally tailiirsilthe variousfproducts Di rect conversion of natural gas in one step requires an oxidant and may involve special liquid catalysts CHEMICALS temperature and pressure But recently Air Products a suppli er of industrial gases in Allentown Pa announced the production of a dimeth yl ether derivative that is liquid at ambi ent conditions So this substitute for con ventional diesel fuel would reduce emis sions without major changes to vehicles and fueling stations Now You re Cooking with Gas cientists and engineers are pursuing many other possible ways to im prove the conversion of natural gas into liquids For instance process develop ers are constantly improving the vessels for the FischerTropsch reaction to pro vide better control of heat and mixing The most ambitious efforts now un der way attempt to mimic the chemical reactions used by specialized bacteria that consume methane in the presence of oxygen to produce methanol Low temperature biological reactions of this kind are quite promising because they can produce speci c chemicals using relatively little energy Whether or not this bold line of re search ultimately succeeds it is clear that even today natural gas can be con verted into liquid fuels at prices that are only about 10 percent higher per barrel than crude oil Modest improvements in technology along with the improved economics that come from making spe cialty chemicals as well from gas will broaden the exploitation of this abun dant commodity in coming years Such developments will also provide remark ably clean fuels ones that can be easily blended with dirtier products re ned from heavier crude oils to meet increas ingly strict environmental standards 80 the benefits to society will surely multi ply as people come to realize that natu ral gas can do much more than just run the kitchen stove in The Author SAFAA A FOUDA received a doctorate in chemical engineering from the University of Waterloo in 1976 Since 1981 she has worked at the CANMET Energy Technolo gy Center a Canadian government labora tory in Nepean Ontario There she manages a group of researchers studying natural gas conversion emissions control waste oil re cycling and liquid fuels from renewable sources Recently she headed an internation al industrial consortium intent on develop ing better methods to convert natural gas to liquid fuels Further Reading NIETILANE CONVERSION BY OXIDATIVE PR0 CESSES FUNDAMENTAL AND ENGINEERING ASPECTS Edited by E E Wolf Van Nos trand Reinhold 1992 THE DIFFERENT CATALYTIC ROUTES IoR METHANE VALORIZATION AN ASSESSMENT or Pnocesses FOR LIQUID FuIIs J M Fox III in Catalysis Reviews Science and Engineering Vol 35 No 2 pages 169 212 August 1993 CONVERT NATURAL GAS INTO CLEAN TRANs PORTATION FUELS M Agee in Harts Fuel Technology and Management Vol 7 No 2 pages 6972 March 1997 REMOTE GAS STRATEGIES World Wide Web site by Zeus Development Corporation available at httpJwwwxernotegassttategies com SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN March 1998 95 39l ILLUSTRATION BY DANIELS amp DANIELS SOURCE SUNCOR Mining for Oil More oil is trapped in Canadian sands than Saudi Arabia holds in its reserves COURTESY OF SYNCRUDE The technology now exists to exploit this vast resource profitably by Richard L George he term oil has to date been synonymous with conventional crude oil a liquid mixture of hy drocarbons that percolates through por ous strata and ows readily up drilled boreholes But much of the world s re maining endowment of oil takes a less convenient form a black tarlike sub stance called bitumen which sticks stubbornly in the pore spaces between the grains of certain sands and shales solidi ed muds Because bitumen nor mally will not flow through such forma tions the straight forward way to recover it is to scoop it out of openpit mines Digging for oil is certainly more trou blesome than simply drilling and pump ing but the enormity of this resource makes it hard to ignore Current pro cessing methods could recover about 300 billion barrels from oil sands in the Canadian province of Alberta alone more than the reserves of conventional oil in Saudi Arabia Oil shale appears to offer a less prodigious supply but Aus tralia contains at least 28 billion barrels of petroleum in this form and other de posits lie buried in Estonia Brazil Swe den the US and China All told oil sands and shales around the world could in principle hold several trillion barrels of oil Yet it is dif cult to predict how much of that potential can be pro tably re covered because the processing needed to turn oil sands or shales into useful petroleum products is quite challenging My company Suncor Energy is one of only two in the world that have success fully exploited oil sands by mining them The roots of our enterprise in north ern Alberta go back many years For centuries natives living in the region The Processing of Oil Sands 6 WATER WITH SAND AND CLAY FLOWS INTO HOLDING PONDS WHERE SOLIDS SETTLE 2 WATER IS REUSED ORE IS CRUSHED 5 SAND SETTLES TO BOTTOM AND BITUMEN FLOATS TO TOP OF F SEPARATION CHAMBER V 39 II I 3922 ERS EXTRCT OIL E quot sAiltfDs WITH SHO AND DUMP TR sA D AT EXTRACTION PLANT ORE MOVES CONVEYOR BELT OR PIPELINE CARRIES ORE FROM MINE 84 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN March 1998 Copyright 1998 Scientific American Inc FROM BINS INTO GIANT ROTATING DRUMS WHERE IT MIXES WITH HOT WATER AND STEAM Mining for Oil OE SANDS coated with tarlike bitumen have the appearance of coffee grounds used the sticky bitumen that oozes out of the banks of the Athabasca River to patch leaks in their canoes And as ear ly as 1893 the Canadian government sponsored investigations of the Atha basca tar sands as a potential source of petroleum Then in 1920 Karl A Clark of the Alberta Research Council found a practical way to separate the bitumen from the sand After shoveling some of the asphalt into the family washing machine and adding hot water and caustic soda he discovered that the bitumen oated to the surface as a frothy foam ready to be skimmed off Clark s method was clearly workable Yet the idea languished for decades un til the precursor of Suncor Energy the Great Canadian Oil Sands Ltd began largescale mining of oil sands in 1967 Rising petroleum prices during the 1970s helped to keep the expensive op eration a oat But failures of the exca vating equipment dogged the miners un 78 LI THAT REMOVE REMAINING 39 1 39 WATER AND MINERALS T V E p I LUi iED BITU EN l j W i H q til 1992 when Suncor modernized the facility in a concerted effort to reduce the cost of extracting this oil For the past ve years my colleagues at Suncor have been producing oil that is quite pro table at current market prices Our production has expanded by 38 percent over that period and we now sell 28 million barrels of uncon ventional oil a year This growth will most likely accelerate in the future lim ited in part by the need to ensure that the local environment is harmed as lit tle as possible The handling of residues called tail ings is of particular concern The coars er grains settle quickly from a slurry of water and sand and we put these mate rials back into the ground But the wa ter still contains many ne particles so we have to hold it in large ponds to avoid contaminating nearby rivers and streams Left alone the ne tailings would not sink to the bottom for cen turies But researchers in industry and government discovered that adding gypsum a byproduct of the sulfur that is removed from the oil to the ponds reduces the settling time for ne tailings to a decade or two We expect that the disturbed ground can then be re stored to something resembling a natural condition Suncor current ly spends about one out of every six dollars in its capital budget 9 10 HYDROCARBON VAPORS HYDROCARBON VAPORS CONDENSE INTO NAPHTHA KEROSENE AND GAS OIL SEPARATE FROM COKE IN TALL DRUMS BITUMEN DILUTED WITH NAPHTLAZT 39 A SWIRLS THROUGH CENTRIFUGES 9 11 C COKE IS STOCKPILED SOLD OR BURNED To PROVIDE HEAT AND POWER FOR PLANT WITH NAPHTHA REMOVED HEATED BITUMEN PRODUCES HYDROCARBON VAPORS AND SOLID RESIDUE PETROLEUM COKE Mining for Oil Copyright 1998 Scientific American Inc on reducing environmental disturbance One alternative technology for ex tracting bitumen sidesteps such prob lems and could in principle allow in dustry to tap huge deposits that are too deep to mine It turns out that the oil in these sands can be made to ow by in jecting steam into the ground Once it is heated the oil thins and pools under neath the site of injection Ordinary oil eld equipment can then bring it to the surface This process called steamassist ed gravity drainage is now being tested by oil companies such as the Alberta Energy Company Suncor too may ex ploit this approach in the future Engineers at Suncor are also examin ing a system to bake the oil out of crushed rock in a giant drumshaped kiln Although this method invented by William Taciuk collaborating with the Alberta Department of Energy is not particularly appropriate for oil sands it appears to work well for processing oil shales If a demonstration plant that Suncor is building with its Australian partners Southern Paci c Petroleum and Central Paci c Minerals proves successful a whole new oil shale indus try could develop in Australia over the next decade So as production from conventional oil elds dwindles oil shale and oil sand reserves may well become a major source of energy in the century to come E2 The Author RICHARD L GEORGE is presi dent and chief executive officer of Suncor Energy which now mines oil sands in Fort McMurray Alber ta and plans to develop oil shales in Queensland Australia George has a bachelor of science degree in engineering from Colorado State University and a law degree from the University of Houston Further Reading CANADA s OIL SANDS THE UNCoN VENTIONAL ALTERNATIVES Rich ard L George in Hart s Petroleum Engineer International pages 33 36 May 1997 Suncor Energy World Wide Web site httpwvvwsuncorcom Syncrude World Wide Web site httpwwwsyncrudecom SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN March 1998 85 The End of Cheap Oil Global production of conventional oil will begin to decline sooner than most people think probably within 10 years by Colin J Campbell and Jean H Laherrere price increases rudely awakened the industrial world to its dependence on cheap crude oil Prices first tripled in re sponse to an Arab embargo and then nearly doubled again when Iran dethroned its Shah sending the major economies sputtering into recession Many analysts warned that these crises proved that the world would soon run out of oil Yet they were wrong Their dire predictions were emotional and political reactions even at the time oil experts knew that they had no scien tific basis Just a few years earlier oil ex plorers had discovered enormous new oil provinces on the north slope of Alaska and below the North Sea off the coast of Eu rope By 1973 the world had consumed according to many experts best esti mates only about one eighth of its endow ment of readily accessible crude oil so called conventional oil The five Middle In 1973 and 1979 a pair of sudden I 1559 p o 78 Scientific American March 1998 1 275 L Eastern members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries OPEC were able to hike prices not because oil was growing scarce but because they had managed to corner 36 percent of the mar ket Later when demand sagged and the ow of fresh Alaskan and North Sea oil weakened OPEC s economic strangle hold prices collapsed The next oil crunch will not be so tem porary Our analysis of the discovery and production of oil fields around the world suggests that within the next decade the supply of conventional oil will be unable to keep up with demand This conclusion contradicts the picture one gets from oil industry reports which boasted of 1020 billion barrels of oil Gbo in Proved reserves at the start of 1998 Dividing that figure by the current production rate of about 236 Gbo a year might suggest that crude oil could remain plentiful and cheap for 43 more years probably longer be Please note that the layout of this document is slightly different than the original cause official charts show reserves grow ing Unfortunately this appraisal makes three critical errors First it relies on dis torted estimates of reserves A second mistake is to pretend that production will remain constant Third and most impor tant conventional wisdom erroneously assumes that the last bucket of oil can be pumped from the ground just as quickly as the barrels of oil gushing from wells today In fact the rate at which any well or any country can produce oil always rises to a maximum and then when about half the oil is gone begins falling gradu ally back to zero From an economic perspective when the world runs completely out of oil is thus not directly relevant what matters is when production begins to taper off Beyond that point prices will rise unless demand declines commensurately HISTORY OF OIL PRODUCTION from the first commercial American well in Titusville Pa left to derricks bristling above the Los Angeles basin below began with steady growth in the US red line But domestic production began to decline after 1970 and restrictions in the ow of Middle Eastern oil in 1973 and 1979 led to in ation and shortages near and center tight More recently the Persian Gulf War with its burning oil fields far right reminded the industrial world of its dependence on Middle Eastern oil production gray line s gramm The End of Cheap Oil Using several different techniques to es timate the current reserves of conventional oil and the amount still left to be discov ered we conclude that the decline will be gin before 2010 Digging for the True Numbers N e have spent most of our careers exploring for oil studying reserve figures and estimating the amount of oil left to discover first while employed at major oil companies and later as indepen dent consultants Over the years we have come to appreciate that the relevant sta tistics are far more complicated than they first appear Consider for example three vital num bers needed to project future oil produc tion The first is the tally of how much oil has been extracted to date a figure known as cumulative production The second is an estimate of reserves the amount that companies can pump out of known oil fields before having to aban don them Finally one must have an edu cated guess at the quantity of conventional oil that remains to be discovered and ex ploited Together they add up to ultimate recovery the total number of barrels that will have been extracted when production ceases many decades from now The obvious way to gather these num bers is to look them up in any of several publications That approach works well 1JFL F l lllllil39quotI l39II IIHJ EIJLF The End of Cheap Oil enough for cumulative production statis tics because companies meter the oil as it ows from their wells The record of pro duction is not perfect for example the two billion barrels of Kuwaiti oil waste fully burned by Iraq in 1991 is usually not included in official statistics but errors are relatively easy to spot and rectify Most experts agree that the industry had removed just over 800 Gbo from the earth at the end of 1997 Getting good estimates of reserves is much harder however Almost all the publicly available statistics are taken from surveys conducted by the Oil and Gas Journal and World Oil Each year these two trade joumals query oil firms and gov ernments around the world They then publish whatever production and reserve numbers they receive but are not able to verify them The results which are often accepted uncritically contain systematic errors For one many of the reported figures are un realistic Estimating reserves is an inex act science to begin with so petroleum engineers assign a probability to their as sessments For example if as geologists estimate there is a 90 percent chance that the Oseberg field in Norway contains 700 million barrels of re p 39 p coverable oil but only a 10 percent 1 K chance that it will yield 2500 mil quot 5 lion more barrels then the lower L figure should be cited as the so G UPIQEDHEIIEJ BE Tl IIa539hrH called P90 estimate P90 for probability 90 percent and the higher as the P10 re serves In practice companies and countries are often deliberately vague about the like lihood of the reserves they report prefer ring instead to publicize whichever fig ure within a P10 to P90 range best suits them Exaggerated estimates can for in stance raise the price of an oil company s stock The members of OPEC have faced an even greater temptation to in ate their reports because the higher their reserves the more oil they are allowed to export National companies which have exclu sive oil rights in the main OPEC coun tries need not and do not release detailed statistics on each field that could be used to verify the country s total reserves There is thus good reason to suspect that when during the late 1980s six of the 11 OPEC nations increased their reserve fig ures by colossal amounts ranging from 42 to 197 percent they did so only to boost their export quotas Previous OPEC estimates inherited from private companies before govern P C ments took them over had probably been conservative P90 numbers So some upward revision was warranted But no major new discov eries or techno umum l39mll Ij39f39 39gqI1139s39I391aP39 j g Scientific American March 1998 79 logical breakthroughs justified the addi tion of a staggering 287 Gbo That in crease is more than all the oil ever dis covered in the US plus 40 percent Non OPEC countries of course are not above fudging their numbers either 59 nations stated in 1997 that their reserves were unchanged from 1996 Because re serves naturally drop as old fields are drained and jump when new fields are discovered perfectly stable numbers year after year are implausible Unproved Reserves Another source of systematic error 39n the commonly accepted statistics is that the definition of reserves varies widely from region to region In the US the Securities and Exchange Commission allows companies to call reserves proved only if the oil lies near a pro ducing well and there is reasonable cer tainty that it can be recovered profitably at current oil prices using existing tech nology So a proved reserve estimate in the US is roughly equal to a P90 esti mate Regulators in most other countries do not enforce particular oil reserve defini tions For many years the former Soviet countries have routinely released wildly optimistic figures essentially P10 re serves Yet analysts have often misinter preted these as estimates of proved re serves World Oil reckoned reserves in the former Soviet Union amounted to 190 Gbo in 1996 whereas the Oil and Gas Journal put the number at 57 Gbo This large discrepancy shows just how elastic these numbers can be Using only P90 estimates is not the answer because adding what is 90 per 80 Scientific American March 1998 FLOW OF OIL starts to fall from any large region when about half the crude is gone Adding the output of fields of various sizes and ages green curves at right usually yields a bell shaped production curve for the region as a whole M King Hubbert left a geologist with Shell Oil exploited this fact in 1956 to predict correctly that oil from the lower 48 American states would peak around 1969 cent likely for each field as is done in the US does not in fact yield what is 90 per cent likely for a country or the entire planet On the contrary summing many P90 reserve estimates always understates the amount of proved oil in a region The only correct way to total up reserve num bers is to add the mean or average esti mates of oil in each field In practice the median estimate often called proved and probable or PS0 reserves is more widely used and is good enough The PS0 value is the number of barrels of oil that are as likely as not to come out of a well during its lifetime assuming prices re main within a lin1ited range Errors in P5 0 estimates tend to cancel one another out We were able to work around many of the problems plaguing estimates of con ventional reserves by using a large body of statistics maintained by Petroconsultants in Geneva This infor mation assembled over 40 years from myriad sources covers some 18000 oil fields worldwide It too contains some dubious reports but we did our best to correct these sporadic errors According to our calculations the world had at the end of 1996 approxi mately 850 Gbo of conventional oil in PS0 reserves substantially less than the 1019 Gbo reported in the Oil and Gas Journal and the 1160 Gbo estimated by World Oil The difference is actually greater than it appears because our value represents the amount most likely to come out of known oil fields whereas the larger number is supposedly a cautious estimate of proved reserves For the purposes of calculating when oil production will crest even more criti cal than the size of the world s reserves is the size of ultimate recovery all the HHMUAL ll PH39ElL39LquotT EIH il39l3939eli liquotfFi39l39Z39139Lquot ii39i39ii ri3 quot f ELtI E JElP39l39iT 39I ll lirldif15llquot i39iJJHEH3TaIE El cheap oil there is to be had In order to estimate that we need to know whether and how fast reserves are moving up or down It is here that the official statistics become dangerously misleading Diminishing Returns According to most accounts world oil reserves have marched steadily upward over the past 20 years Extend ing that apparent trend into the future one could easily conclude as the US Energy Information Administration has that oil production will continue to rise unhin dered for decades to come increasing al most two thirds by 2020 Such growth is an illusion About 80 percent of the oil produced today ows from fields that were found before 1973 and the great majority of them are declin ing In the 1990s oil companies have dis covered an average of seven Gbo a year last year they drained more than three times as much Yet official figures indi cated that proved reserves did not fall by 16 Gbo as one would expect rather they expanded by 11 Gbo One reason is that several dozen govemments opted not to report declines in their reserves perhaps to enhance their political cachet and their ability to obtain loans A more important cause of the expansion lies in revisions oil companies replaced earlier estimates of the reserves left in many fields with higher numbers For most purposes such amendments are harmless but they seri ously distort forecasts extrapolated from published reports To judge accurately how much oil ex plorers will uncover in the future one has to backdate every revision to the year in which the field was first discovered not The End of Cheap Oil GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF OIL both conventional and unconventional red recovered after falling in 1973 and 11979 But a more permanent decline is less than 10 years away according to the authors model based in part on multiple Hubbert curves lighter lines US and Canadian oil brown topped out in 1972 production in the for1ner Soviet Union yellow has fallen 45 percent since 1987 A crest in the oil produced outside the Persian Gulf region purple now appears imminent to the year in which a company or coun try corrected an earlier estimate Doing so reveals that global discovery peaked in the early 1960s and has been falling steadily ever since By extending the trend to zero we can make a good guess at how much oil the industry will ultimately find We have used other methods to esti mate the ultimate recovery of conventional oil for each country see box on next two pages and we calculate that the oil in dustry will be able to recover only about another 1000 billion barrels of conven tional oil This number though great is little more than the 800 billion barrels that have already been extracted It is important to realize that spending more money on oil exploration will not change this situation After the price of crude hit all time highs in the early 1980s explorers developed new technology for finding and recovering oil and they scoured the world for new fields They found few the discovery rate continued its decline uninterrupted There is only so much crude oil in the world and the industry has found about 90 percent of it Predicting the Inevitable Predicting when oil production will stop rising is relatively straightfor ward once one has a good estimate of how much oil there is left to produce We sim ply apply a refinement of a technique first published in 1956 by M King Hubbert Hubbert observed that in any large region unrestrained extraction of a finite resource rises along a bellshaped curve that peaks when about half the resource is gone To demonstrate his theory Hubbert fitted a The End of Cheap Oil Ml ellJ5li EIIL FFl EiLl ETIEIH EI1LLi E39iE IE EIF EARRELE ma 1930 bell curve to production statistics and pro jected that crude oil production in the lower 48 US states would rise for 13 more years then crest in 1969 give or take a year He was right production peaked in 1970 and has continued to fol low Hubbert curves with only minor de viations The ow of oil from several other regions such as the former Soviet Union and the collection of all oil produc ers outside the Middle East also follows Hubbert curves quite faithfully The global picture is more compli cated because the Middle East members of OPEC deliberately reined back their oil exports in the 1970s while other nations continued producing at full capacity Our analysis reveals that a number of the larg est producers including Norway and the UK will reach their peaks around the tum of the millennium unless they sharply curtail production By 2002 or so the world will rely on Middle East nations particularly five near the Persian Gulf Iran Iraq Kuwait Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to fill in the gap between dwindling supply and growing demand But once approximately 900 Gbo have been consumed production must soon begin to fall Barring a global recession it seems most likely that world production of conventional oil will peak during the first decade of the 21 st century Perhaps surprisingly that prediction does not shift much even if our estimates are a few hundred billion barrels high or low Craig Bond Hatfield of the Univer sity of Toledo for example has conducted 17u 41 II 192 1951 we 539ED 199ua gm mi 3124 me in main his own analysis based on a 1991 estimate by the US Geological Survey of 1550 Gbo remaining 55 percent higher than our figure Yet he similarly concludes that the world will hit maximum oil produc tion within the next 15 years John D Edwards of the University of Colorado published last August one of the most optimistic recent estimates of oil remain ing 2036 Gbo Edwards concedes that the industry has only a 5 percent chance of attaining that very high goal Even so his calculations suggest that conventional oil will top out in 2020 Smoothing the Peak Factors other than major economic changes could speed or delay the point at which oil production begins to decline Three in particular have often led econo mists and academic geologists to dismiss concerns about future oil production with naive optimism First some argue huge deposits of oil may lie undetected in far off comers of the globe In fact that is very unlikely Exploration has pushed the frontiers back so far that only extremely deep water and polar regions remain to be fully tested and even their prospects are now reasonably well understood Theoretical advances in geochemistry and geophysics have made it possible to map productive and prospec tive fields with impressive accuracy As a result large tracts can be condemned as barren Much of the deepwater realm for Scientific American March 1998 81 AH quotlLa395iL ll L FquotFi39 E39E3JCTlEIiTw1 How Much Oil Is Left to Find e combined several techniques to conclude that about 1000 billion barrels of conventional oil remain to be pro duced First we extrapolated published production figures for older oil fields that have begun to decline The Thistle field off Ewe can Elie amunil of remaining til 3 Hie decline Inf the coast of Britain for example will yield about 420 million barrels a Second we plotted the amount of oil discovered so 5 DIL F liEIIi1LlE E TD EJv5ITE WIILLIHNE llF1 HHEL5 example has been shown to be absolutely nonprospective for geologic reasons What about the much touted Caspian Sea deposits Our models project that oil production from that region will grow until around 2010 We agree with ana lysts at the USGS World Oil Assessment program and elsewhere who rank the to tal resources there as roughly equivalent to those of the North Sea that is perhaps 5 0 Gbo but certainly not several hundreds of billions as sometimes reported in the media A second common rejoinder is that new technologies have steadily increased the fraction of oil that can be recovered from fields in a basin the socalled re covery factor In the 1960s oil compa nies assumed as a rule of thumb that only 30 percent of the oil in a field was typi cally recoverable now they bank on an average of 40 or 50 percent That progress will continue and will extend glo bal reserves for many years to come the argument runs Of course advanced technologies will buy a bit more time before production starts to fall see Oil Production in the 21st Century by Roger N Anderson on page 86 But most of the apparent im provement in recovery factors is an arti fact of reporting As oil fields grow old their owners often deploy newer technol ogy to slow their decline The falloff also allows engineers to gauge the size of the field more accurately and to correct pre 82 Scientific American March 1998 vious underestimation in particular P90 estimates that by definition were 90 per cent likely to be exceeded Another reason not to pin too much hope on better recovery is that oil com panies routinely count on technological progress when they compute their reserve estimates In truth advanced technolo gies can offer little help in draining the largest basins of oil those onshore in the Middle East where the oil needs no assis tance to gush from the ground Last economists like to point out that the world contains enormous caches of un conventional oil that can substitute for crude oil as soon as the price rises high enough to make them profitable There is no question that the resources are ample the Orinoco oil belt in Venezuela has been assessed to contain a staggering 12 trillion m LEE if S barrels of the sludge 5 known as heavy oil Tar E M sands and shale deposits E in Canada and the former Soviet Union may con tain the equivalent of 3 more than 300 billion 5 barrels of oil see Min 333 Q ILT 1 pq P far in some regions against the cumulative number of explor atory wells drilled there Because larger fields tend to be found firstthey are simply too large to missthe curve rises rapidly and then attens eventually reaching a theoretical maximum Q 1 gig 5393 393 2 I C quot 39 1 u 09 34 5 min p 0 ELL 1 3 3 I we K G E 539 T E D P L pO LAIl IE cg r 1 P H gas V E E quot J K n i39 j glam 139533 39 igg W 4 5 HZHZII 115 mo 25 sun 35 mu 15 Su U 3933LL1 i39llgsZ1T 39WE quotsEU39h EE 39 Z F EIi39EF L393iE3gTIZ Hquotuquot WELLS conventional oil passes its prime But the industry will be hard pressed for the time and money needed to ramp up production of unconventional oil quickly enough Such substitutes for crude oil might also exact a high environmental price Tar sands typically emerge from strip mines Extracting oil from these sands and shales creates air pollution The Orinoco sludge contains heavy metals and sulfur that must be removed So govemments may restrict these industries from growing as fast as they could In view of these potential ob stacles our skeptical estimate is that only 700 Gbo will be produced from uncon ventional reserves over the next 60 years ing for Oil by Richard L George on page 84 Theoretically these un conventional oil reserves could quench the world s thirst for liquid fuels as my a a 11 195 wise 1Ei39 1 EiaaII I EliliillI3 GROWTH IN OIL RESERVES since 1980 is an illusion caused by belated corrections to oil field estimates Backdating the revisions to the year in which the fields were discovered reveals that reserves have been failing because of a steady decline in newfound oil blue The End of Cheap Oil iJLHE EFLAEE AFiEE LWhEE Ella ii w39EIGIi3I I39 Ii i 39IIJ iH2lJ5 IEEE L IEl39539l L EJITfIE39n39 arket ate Ihl COMMODITIES CORNER Jan 28 2011 1201 am EST Natural gas the commodity world39s ugly duckling Is the naturaI gas story ready to transform By Myra P Saefong MarketWatch SAN FRANCISCO MarketWatch Natural gas has played the part of an outcast wallowing in a supply surplus even as most other commodities managed to turn heads with their impressive gains over the past several months Natural gas is the ugly duckling of the commodities said Ben Smith president of First Enercast Financial an information vendor serving energy markets But just like the beloved Hans Christian Andersen fairy tale the natura gas story has the potential to transform if investors are patient enough to wait Many commodities had seen a downtrend since the peak in prices in 2008 but copper commodities have been making new highs and oil and iron gold and agricultural ore have rebounded said Evan Smith co manager of the 900 million Global Resources Fund which climbed 38 last yeah Natural gas is probably the only commodity that has set lows recently with no rebound he said Natural gas prices have dropped 68 from a peak of about 1360 per million British thermal units in July 2008 finishing Thursday at 437 They sank to a low of 250 in September 2009 Natural gas has truly undergone a significant fundamental shift with the discovery of cheap and plentiful shae gas supply said Ben Smith The US Energy Information Administration estimates domestic recoverable unproved shae gas resources at 827 trillion cubic feet according to a preliminary 2011 Annual Energy Outlook report released in mid December That39s more than double the estimate of 347 trillion in the 2010 report The larger resource also leads to about double the shae gas production and over 20 higher total production in the lower 48 states in 2035 than was projected in the 2010 report the EIA said natural gas The shae gas resources are very large prolific deposits of natural gas said Evan Smith Many of these fields were known but are now rediscovered so the market39s seen a big swing from offshore to onshore production as a portion of overall supplies At the same time the natura gas market has had about 28 billion of capital come in over the last couple of years in the form of joint ventures largely from foreign oil companies such as India39s Reliance Industries Ltd or France39s Total SA he said There39s too much capital coming in from foreign oil companies and this has led to continued LI w 3 I niII1III E3 I If2IZIIaI7IEVIIl ITI IJlfiIfiI1 I 39 5 l39II39sr3939 LLI E iic39 w3 39 r largely drilling which keeps the r32 supply higher than it should 61 r7 be he said And it COUld int EIFI u A v 4 B B i take a year market sees an incremental decline in drilling activity from companies reducing capital commitments to drill natural gas before the Even then it could take even longer before the market reacts The market currently believes this massive shale supply windfall will keep prices suppressed for many years Ben Smith said Futures contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange don39t show prices above 6 until the December 2015 contract Tough love That certainly doesn39t seem to bode well for natura gas prices but with natura gas prices as cheap as they are there are some good reasons for investors to jump back into the market It39ll take some convincing first and here39s why Natura gas futures fell Thursday even after the EIA reported that domestic supplies in storage dropped 174 billion cubic feet for the week ended Jan 21 slightly above some anaysts s expectations It appears that all this cold weather is draining storage levels at an extremely high rate said Ben Smith More than 1 billion cubic feet per day is flowing from storage in the Gulf region currently It39s still not enough to rally the prices reg1539 Ti Kw 39 I1 vquotIr39quot39Iquotl H39Il nili TI 5 y F I 39l39I E39I li39I 39l j i I1 rjg 139 quotI I w r5w1 39E quotquot a39u Shale production is among the big reasons for that After all by applying new technology Southwestern Energy Co for example with its sizable land position in the Fayetteville Shale formation in Arkansas and surrounding states has been able to see a 400 increase in productivity over the last two years according to Evan Smith And natura gas producers continue to go strong because prices for natura gas liquids NGLs remain attractive Natura gas liquids include butane and propane which are parts of natural gas that turn to liquid at the surface and are separated from the gas As it turns out companies are doing well selling natural gas liquids which seems to make it worth drilling for natural gas said Chris Mayer a managing editor for Agora Financial and contributor to the Daily Reckoning Right now pricing for natura gas liquids is so strong that natural gas producers with wells rich in NGLs can do well even if natura gas prices are low he said noting that NGL prices vary all over by region In some places the NGLs might be more than half of the value of what comes out of a well said Mayer NGLs relate more to the price of crude and motor gasoline than they do natural gas since a lot of the propane and butane come from crude said Beth Sewell a managing partner at Quantum Power amp Gas Services Crude is truly an international commodity and can easily seek the highest price markets whereas natural gas is pretty much contained within the borders of the country is produced from because liquefied natural gas capabilities aren39t huge she said Against this backdrop Charles Perry president of energy consulting firm Perry Management said he expects natural gas prices to stay where they are now for 2011 in the 4 to 450 range Unfortunately that39s a rather precarious pricing range Whenever the price drops to 4 the producers quit drilling shale wells and LNG diverts to other markets When the price rises to 450 the producers start drilling shale wells again and some LNG diverts to the US said Perry a former member of power giant TXU Corp s board of directors Patience is a virtue Weather has and always will be a key factor for natura gas demand and cheap prices certainly make the energy source even more appealing We ve officially established the fact that we have ample cheap natura gas supply to last us many years said Ben Smith But it is the demand growth rate in response to all this cheap supply that will eventually support this market going forward It39ll take time Much of the growth in demand takes time to build the needed infrastructure to support higher gas use so the recovery of natural gas will most likely be a gradual occurrence that takes several years Ben Smith said I m seeing positive changes happening in demand growth already which indicates that cheap prices are working to cure cheap prices he said Total gas demand has risen by 52 since the bottom in 2009 and vehicle use has climbed 11 in 2010 from 2009 figures he said citing data from EIA Weather reports are also supportive AccuWeathercom chief ong range forecaster Joe Bastardi said the current winter season could end up being the coldest for the nation as a whole since the 1980s This month and next gas prices should move with the weather forecasts said James Williams an economist at WTRG Economics A hot summer would also support prices Meanwhile many producers are unable to profitably produce natural gas at current contract prices so offshore and conventional gas supply is in sharp decline said Ben Smith Natural gas is currently cheaper than coal to burn for electricity generation and we can expect to see continued demand growth from utilities So yes it takes years to create all this infrastructure to support demand but this is the futures market and I believe the market will see the future he said Myra P Saefong is MarketWatch s assistant global markets editor based in Tokyo Canada39s tar sands Muck and brass Rising oil prices and falling production costs favour the extraction of oil from Alberta39s tar sands But environmental objections are fierce Jan 20th 2011 The Economist httpwwweconomistcomnode17959688 SMOKESTACKS dot the horizon a whiff of oil hangs in the air gargantuan vehicles clog the highway There is a din of heavy machinery punctuated by blasts from cannons scaring birds away from toxic lakes But golf courses and suburban housing make the place liveable and some locals have grown attached to Alberta39s tar sands and Fort McMurray the town at the centre of them I d like my son and grandson to work here says a worker at one of Shell39s mines He may get his wish After a brief hiatus during the economic downturn world oil consumption is rising again pushing the price of a barrel towards 100 By 2035 believes the International Energy Agency IEA demand may reach 110m barrels per day bd about 20 more than in 2009 For those who exploit the tar sands which contain the world39s second largest trove of oil this is a welcome forecast Despite rapid development in the past decade the sands produce only 15m bd less than 2 of global supply However the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers CAPP an industry group expects output to be nearly 35m bd by 2025 see chart Thirst for fuel is not the only thing in the oimen s favour The cost of production has fallen a few years ago most firms thought the break even price was 75 per barrel but now companies such as Shell say new developments are economical at 50 The provincial and federal governments are unsurprisingly supportive There are obstacles too mainly because of the sheer dirtiness of the business In America the main market objections to the import of more of Alberta39s bituminous oil are loud And domestic opposition to exploiting the tar sands and building pipelines which has long been fierce is gathering momentum First the economics The IEA believes that global production of conventional oil the stuff that can be recovered easily using drills and wells is near or already at its peak and that only a I Albar39Iza 5 wedge leap In output from Canadian wIdeail muLu ian um barrels per day unconventional SOUFCES mlantic I Tarsands I bEl 39l IquotEIquotlIlfll39EL prevent new lea 5 In prICe I2 Emmren39tianalIliught I2 Pentanes Even if countries around the 5 F IS H E II A 5 T world agree on measures to control carbon dioxide emissions says the agency crudes like bituminous j I 1 Canada39s must fill a coming 1 supply gap That the sands 2005 W 15 3393 35 lie in Canada is a rare EiI39rmreIEanauian usuiiitinfuuf1PetfHeuI39n Producers geological fluke in the West39s favour With 70 pus of the world39s remaining oil in the hands of OPEC half of its free oil is in the tar sands notes Peter Tertzakian chief economist of Arc Financial an investment firm No sef respecting oil major has let a position in the tar sands pass by A flock of national oil companies has joined them led since 2005 by China39s state controed firms In December Total a French oil firm and Suncor Energy one of the original tar sands developers announced plans to spend about C20 billion about 20 billion on new projects in the next decade This year alone developers will spend C15 billion predicts CAPP All this is making Alberta the fag bearer of a new oil age and the province is already becoming wealthy At 173 billion recoverable barrels the tar sands are worth 157 trillion at today39s price As the resource owner Alberta captures much of this wealth but a good deal filters through to the rest of Canada in contracts for goods and services as well as in federal equalisation payments that send some of the rich west s billions to poorer eastern provinces at the bitumen the companies bulldoze wetlands to create vast open pit mines Inside them the world39s largest dumptrucks ferry paydirt to nearby separation plants where the tarry soil is crushed and diluted until bitumen can be skimmed off This needs lots of water and energy and yields the notorious taiings a residue of sand unclaimed bitumen water clay particles and contaminants Some lakes of this have been festering for decades Mining accounts for just over half of production It will become less common as shallower reserves are exhausted Extracting the deeper stuff is less ugly but also damaging Typically it involves drilling wells to pump steam into the ground to melt the bitumen and make it easier to suck up to the surface Heating the steam burns much natural gas emitting CO2 Both methods say the tar sands critics threaten local rivers poison fish destroy the landscape kill wildlife and pollute the air The movement to stop this dirty oil has gathered momentum Several American states led by California have passed laws designed to stop Albertan oil reaching their citizens Some American retailers have forsworn fuel from the tar sands A coalition of green groups has launched a campaign Rethink Alberta to dissuade tourists from visiting the province until expansion of the tar sands stops The provincial government has begun to fight back with advertisements in newspapers and in Times Square The industry has run ads featuring ordinary workers talking up the wonders of the oil sands Both often offer journalists and activists tours hoping to persuade them that things are better than they think This candour is usually rewarded with more negative publicity Aided by among other things the death of 1600 ducks in a tailings pond and photos making northern Alberta look like a moonscape environmentalists have succeeded in tarnishing the province39s brand The oil sands have become the harp seal of the environmental movement says Preston McEachern a water scientist with the provincial government the easiest and softest beast to club David Schindler an ecologist at the University of Alberta has long been publishing peer reviewed studies showing that airborne emissions from smokestacks on upgraders which convert the bitumen into synthetic crude oil have polluted the Athabasca the giant river that flows through the tar sands His findings gained more publicity in September when he offered photographers deformed turbot and other species pulled from the river The images prompted a federal investigation I m surprised it wasn39t mounted on a block of bitumen said an oil executive of Dr Schindler39s piscine trophy Such weary sentiment is widespread in the industry Sometimes it is justified Agriculture has severely depleted south eastern Alberta39s rivers for example yet is allowed to use more than six times as much water as the tar sands in a region soaked with lakes and rivers David Keith a scientist at the University of Calgary says the tar sands water use is so benign in pollution and consumption that environmentalists ought to drop the issue In December a report by the Royal Society of Canada RSC dismissed other complaints Claims that the tar sands were the most environmentally destructive project on Earth were not accurate it said Although reclamation of the land a legal obligation has not kept up with the disturbance of the tar sands it was achievabe The RSC added that no credible evidence supported worries about elevated human cancer rates downstream of the developments Progress by developers in cleaning up after themselves tends to win only grudging approval In September Suncor reclaimed Pond 1 a toxic lake of residue that had been an open wound for decades This was a small step to be sure The Pembina Institute a local environmental think tank claims that a lot of the mature fine tailings were merely transferred to other larger lakes Suncor says not Such toxic lakes still cover 170 square kilometres 66 square miles and will keep growing according to the RSC Some of them leach their waste into the ground says Pembina although how much is uncertain Suncor is promising to spend another C12 billion to deal with its tailings Rick George its chief executive believes that as companies share new technology like that used by Suncor on Pond 1 the tar sands will within a decade look like any other mining operation with only one lake open temporarily per mine Only since the turn of the century have the companies cracked the economics of the tar sands argues Mr George Now they can concentrate on greening them Whether Alberta39s government can be relied on to promote greener tar sands however is questionable The province has been a model of aissez faire In private many oil industry executives wish it would be more diligent as a regulator feeling that its lax approach has become a threat to developments not an incentive Most of the province39s best minds don39t join the government in Edmonton goes a frequent lament but head for companies in Calgary deep pocketed oil Both the RSC s report and another commissioned by the federal government also released last month demolished Alberta39s claims to have monitored the tar sands impact adequately Regulators had not kept pace with rapid growth and the province39s environmental assessments had serious deficiencies leaving them below international best practice the RSC said The federal report rubbished the province39s water monitoring which involved handing the job to an industry body putting the fox in charge of the henhouse says Dr Schindler After December s reports both the federal governments promised improve monitoring an admission that the current arrangements are inadequate Yet Mr Kent the federal environment minister has flatly rejected Dr Schindler39s research into the pollution of the Athabasca and provincial new measures to Clean and scrub Some environmental problems could be solved fairly easily One ong standing idea is to create a large wildlife refuge in areas that will eventually be tapped for bitumen Only after a developer has restored land it has already mined could it begin tearing up an area of equivalent size within the refuge Pembina says up to 40 of the region could be protected this way with no impact on oil production Various nasties Dr Schindler found in the Athabasca could be dealt with by adding simpe off the shef scrubbers to upgraders smokestacks he says Though they are not legally required many companies have added them to capture sulphur dioxide Enforcement of rules to make operators deal safely with half of their tailings by 2013 has been patchy Many operators will miss the deadline says Pembina and another rule is needed for the other half Outside Canada most complaints are about the tar sands CO2 emissions Here too confusion abounds Some critics calculating emissions from extraction through to refining well to tank say fuel sourced from the sands is up to three times more carbon intensive than others consumed in America But from well to wheels counting emissions from cars exhaust pipes tar sands are only 5 15 dirtier says IHS CERA Most CO2 comes from burning the petrol not digging up the oil Whatever the measure Alberta lacks an adequate strategy to deal with emissions Its cimate change targets would allow emissions to grow until 2020 And those from the tar sands could triple in the next decade as more oil is extracted by steam based methods Still the sands are carbon emitting minnows Just 5 of Canada39s CO2 about 01 of the world total developments says CAPP If people are serious about fighting climate change 1 argues Dr Keith they should A H worry first about coa fired electricity whose emissions in comes from the America dwarf those from the tar sands Andrew Leach of the Alberta School of Business calculates that the tar sands create about C500 of value added per tonne of CO2 against C20 30 from coal fired power stations Peter Silverstone of the University of Alberta argues in a recent book that the province should levy its tar sands royalties on a scale that reflects each project39s emissions Some companies may welcome this Shell already adds a nominal carbon levy of 40 per tonne to its projects when deciding whether to invest in the region calling this a licence to operate even though Alberta39s own carbon tax is just C15 per tonne With hefty provincial funding Shell is also among those hoping to capture CO2 emitted by one of its tar sands upgraders Alberta is investing CS2 billion in carbon capture and sequestration its favoured way of cleaning up emissions Environmentalists may regard such schemes with mixed feelings Carbon neutra extraction would do nothing to cut the bulk of oi reated emissions that come from combustion Eco friendier tar sands could also encourage development Jordan Madagascar Congo and Venezuela where the government claims a reserve of bitumen even greater than Alberta39s may be less open to environmental scrutiny Kill Alberta39s tar sands say some and rising crude prices would choke oil consumption and force an era of clean energy into being unconventional elsewhere This would be a hard argument to make especially in the United States Even if America39s consumption keeps shrinking it will remain the world39s biggest oil buyer for decades foreign supplies will grow more not less important in its market Ezra Levant author of a recent polemical defence of the tar sands argues that Americans would rather buy from Canada than from Venezuela and the Middle East Meanwhile in Calgary oilmen expect a pipeline to the Pacific and in effect to Asia to come sooner than later especially if Keystone XL is blocked A settlement with First Nations opposed to Northern Gateway involving both money and environmental safeguards could hasten that Chinese oil companies would happily take delivery might be less fickle customers than the southern neighbours and might help Canada fulfil Mr Harper39s dream of energy superpowerdom Many Americans however might ask why the State Department had allowed a rising economic rival into such a vast oil reserve The oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico should be a wakeup call to us all Sacramento Bee5 11 10 By Michael Brune Sierra Club39s Executive Director Opinion Somehow the word quotspillquot doesn39t quite capture the tragedy that is unfolding in the Gulf of Mexico As the father of two young children I have experience with spills They seem to happen every time my wife and I give our son a glass of milk What I saw while ying over the gulf waters Wednesday and what we39ve all been watching on television the last two weeks is no spill It39s an endless explosion of toxic muck a sickening creep of poisonous sludge that may soon blanket a national park more than a dozen wildlife refuges and hundreds of miles of coastline perhaps even oozing into the fragile Florida Keys and up the Eastern Seaboard This catastrophe may also prove to be one of those rare events that rivets attention bolsters resolve and encourages pivotal change in this case a national commitment to stop the expansion of offshore drilling immediately and end our dependence on oil and the other dirty fuels that are fouling our planet in a slow motion environmental disaster every day In western Canada monstrous earthmoving machines rip up forests and pollute freshwater supplies to produce dirty oil from Alberta39s quottar sandsquot In Ecuador billions with a quotbquot of gallons of oil contaminated waste were dumped into the Amazon watershed by Texaco now owned by Chevron And here in the United States 90 million Americans live near l50 plus oil refineries These refineries release into the air and water millions of pounds of cancer causing chemicals such as benzene butadiene and formaldehyde along with nickel lead and other pollutants linked to heart disease asthma and other health threats Even before this spill the gulf39s wetlands and habitat were under siege from oil operations Offshore pipelines crossing coastal wetlands are estimated to have destroyed more salt marsh in the region than can be found in the entire coastline from New Jersey to Maine Even more significant our use of oil and other dirty fuels including coal continues to pollute the atmosphere with carbon dioxide accelerating climate disruption and its potential legacy of ongoing environmental disaster for generations I39m 38 years old and US corporate and political leaders have been talking about ending our dependence on oil for most of my life Progress has come in fits and starts The Arab embargo and the twin oil crises of the 1970s helped our country almost eliminate the use of oil to produce electricity More recently the Obama administration has given the nation clean car rules that will increase vehicle efficiency save consumers money and conserve more than a million barrels of oil every day by 2020 The gulf tragedy is an urgent alarm alerting us that we can no longer accept the plodding pace of our transition to a clean energy future Luckily the time is ripe for transformational change When the Exxon Valdez went aground in 1989 ruining vast expanses of pristine Alaskan coast there wasn39t much alternative to powering our nation with the fuel that ship carried Now there is Hi gh performance hybrid vehicles are already serving as a bridge to the largely electrified transportation system of the future In a decade a majority of all new vehicles should be powered by plug in hybrid and fully electric engines Making deeper investments in mass transit electrifying our railroads and converting heavy duty trucks to natural gas will help produce an even more dramatic decline in our oil use And in late April the Obama administration approved our country39s first offshore wind farm an important milestone Clean energy companies are putting people in good paying jobs that will create a more prosperous future Flying over the gulf I found myself unable to speak as we stared out at marinas filled with oyster boats that should have been out working and masses of nets sitting idle as a filthy spew spread over waters swarming with stingrays dolphins and sharks as well as the shrimp oysters and fish that make this the richest seafood habitat in the Lower 48 It39s almost more painful to think about what39s happening 5000 feet down where a quotgusherquot has been spouting 200000 gallons of sticky ooze a day In the coming days let39s make sure our leaders demand that BP which just announced first quarter profits of nearly 61 billion pay for every last nickel it takes to clean up this mess and compensate those gulf residents who will be devastated by it The Obama administration and Congress must also declare a national moratorium on expanded oil drilling They must seize this moment to announce that the US will end its dependence on petroleum as a fuel quickly say within 20 years Then they must at long last take a serious stand against climate change by moving our economy away from all dirty fuels at a significantly accelerated pace No one can predict how devastating this disaster will be how much it will cost or how long it will take to recover We can however make sure that it doesn39t happen again by uniting in a common purpose to create the clean energy future that we need Let39s not pass this challenge to yet another generation Because 20 years from now the only mess I want to be cleaning up is the spilled milk of my grandkids Michael Brune the new executive director of the Sierra Club is the author of quotComing Clean Breaking America39s Addiction to Oil and Coalquot llfl far quot I J 39r IiiLllI i UUltIdlb C loit eto1I oMIcs m1n xrntne BUR UNBRIHLEEM PllRSlllT IF llNlAtPtPEl ENlEi RGa IS lAiKfNiE US illNiTU TFtEAl3HERJllSl NEW TERIRlTURll THE DNGOING DEBACLE TN P GULF of Mexico is a sign ofquot nmiany things the incornpetence of BF poor overslight and an incltisrtry that places too much einphasis on production ttechnology antl too little on sat39e39tjI technlology But it also highlights a larger tiruth 39We re enterecl an age ir1 North America where the 1oroductior1 of etne139E39IYi especialljr from fossils toels cornes with ererrho39re E2XpEI1lSiVE ernrirroinlmental t139atlevofts Wehre eriteretl what lvlichael Klare a lzariofiessor at lelanipsliire College calls the era of EtI E391quotl 1E ene139gyquot Consider how oil proucluction in the LLB has eixoilfrecl In Texas in 19iI1 wilt1 catters ditlrrt have to worl 39ver3r11arel to tap into the great Beauintmt gusher The oil was eesstenitially at the surfacve all hut seeping out of the earth s crust When the laiitlehasetl oil was Etl1 t1SlE39Cl Atmerican prospectoi s went to sea And when the shallowwater oil was eJthauistetl they went Farther out In 1985 only 21 million barrels or 6 percent of the oil I7JI 0vClTltCEt l in the Gulfquot of Mexico ca1ne fl U 1 wells drilled in water more than 1000 feet cleep ln 2009 such wells pro olI1c ecl 456 million barrels or 80 percerrt of total gulf proClLiction Totlay tle epwater gullquot wells acconnt for shout one CL1 I lE l of the oil the US sucks from the earth The 39Weh earns h39roaclcasting images fr on1 the spill jiroricle a realtiine measure of the envi rontrrverrtal cost of this e hrt The G11lf39 of Mexico isn t the only place where such soacalletl tough oil is to he l0l1l1Cli in llorth America 39l he El7Wl1quotO inenrtail hazel cls of clrilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Retiige are so olivi ous that even the Etrshera Congrelss and White House wouildntquott go there A1ialysts have enthusecl aliout the rapitl tlevelopine11t of the Aliherta tar sar1cls in BY DANIiEL GROSS Canac1alfrite ndl y nearby clemlocratic noneterrorist promoting39 Canada An Alhe r tla g39overnmvent Web site notes that the oil isar1dsi are the seeontl larg est source of oil oc the world after Saucli Arahia The reserves t here1 1i8 hil lion harrels iarnount to 13 percent of the global total and are lahout what lraq and Russia have cornhinetl But the 0 W in the tar santls isn39t really ail lt s hitu1hen p X it has to he ripped out of the earth or pushed to the surface R a process that itself consu1nes a lot of water and natu S 0 U Producing a barrel of oil horn tar slantlsl creates more than twice the amount DllEI11lSSl0IS ofoldscl1otol oil tlri39lli1quot1g Nattinal gas is suiplposetl to he an easy form of ienergy it horns more cleanly than pEl1quotOlE39Ll111 antl the I has vast supplies ln recent years tliseoreries of reserv39es loclszed in shale 1390Cli in the 0aarlts the BarnetI Shale and in the Ap palacl1ians theMar cellL1s Shale have S13L11 139E39Cl a lho orni But shale gas is also tough enter 939 The gas is protlucetl via Fracking fiquotaett1ring the rock with water and ehternica1 solvents to loosen up the gas 1nolec ulies The eI1vironn391e1f1tal risl 39ll he wat39er l39l391lXEEl with solvents could lter into TL 111dE39I39g 1 OL11 ll aquifers Ihcon veniently the Marcellus Shale overlaps with the watershed of the New York City region Ancl then therequots the niatter of earthquakesi Last year experts in Texas grew concernecl when rare seismie acti39v p 1 was detected in areas where na39tta1ral gas drillers had heen fracking Even the cleanest sources conie with tllval Cj EDESHE The wincltturhirle farm oil Cape Cod Mass aroused the ire of waterfront hoInelowners whose rilewas would he rnairrecl by giant propellers in the distance but also by erwironrne nlta1 ists tronc erneCl ahoLit its potential impact on wildllife Proposals to pot huge solar arrays in the Mojavel Desert l IEWE pro votltetl similar green concerns Thus far we39ve deemed these rilsksoil spil1s more en1issions pollutecl water the odd ea139thqruallte lto he whorthwhil e in large ineasure hecause of the laws of stippltj and cle1nianl As the price of energy lteeps th quot g higher we re going to Clo n 1 oreantlnioife dubious tl1ings says Joseph l3tonim an assistant energy sec retary in the Clinton atl1ninistratio1 and eclitor of the inthienltial Climate Prog ress hlog But the response to the age of toL1gh oil shoulchrt he engineering tieats that allow us to chill tleeper or to liherate llyCl1 OCEL1 lJOl39lS from roclts Rather we shoultl ayjply our collective engi11ee139 ing szniiarts to guring out ways to 39l1SE39 less e39nergy ll we want to avoitlext1erne ene1 gy39we need extreme ef cievncy E MEwswEEltc eM 29 Utility Shelves Ambitious Plan to Limit Carbon By MATTHEW L WALD and JOHN M BRODER Published July 13 2011 WASHINGTON A major American utility is shelving the nation s most prominent effort to capture carbon dioxide from an existing coalbuming power plant dealing a severe blow to efforts to rein in emissions responsible for global warming American Electric Power has decided to table plans to build a fullscale carboncapture plant at Mountaineer a 31yearold coalfired plant in West Virginia where the company has successfully captured and buried carbon dioxide in a small pilot program for two years The technology had been heralded as the quickest solution to help the coal industry weather tougher federal limits on greenhouse gas emissions But Congressional inaction on climate change diminished the incentives that had spurred AEP to take the leap Company officials who plan an announcement on Thursday said they were dropping the larger 668 million project because they did not believe state regulators would let the company recover its costs by charging customers thus leaving it no compelling regulatory or business reason to continue the program The federal Department of Energy had pledged to cover half the cost but AEP said it was unwilling to spend the remainder in a political climate that had changed strikingly since it began the project We are placing the project on hold until economic and policy conditions create a viable path forward said Michael G Morris chairman of American Electric Power based in Columbus Ohio one of the largest operators of coalfired generating plants in the United States He said his company and other coalbuming utilities were caught in a quandary they need to develop carboncapture technology to meet any future greenhousegas emissions rules but they cannot afford the projects without federal standards that will require them to act and will persuade the states to allow reimbursement The decision could set back for years efforts to leam how best to capture carbon emissions that result from buming fossil fuels and then inject them deep underground to keep them from accumulating in the atmosphere and heating the planet The procedure formally known as carbon capture and sequestration or CCS offers the best current technology for taming greenhousegas emissions from traditional fuels bumed at existing plants The abandonment of the AEP plant comes in response to a string of reversals for federal climate change policy President Obama spent his first year in of ce pushing a goal of an 80 percent reduction in climatealtering emissions by 2050 a target that could be met only with widespread adoption of carboncapture and storage at coal plants around the country The administration s stimulus package provided billions of dollars to speed development of the technology the climate change bill passed by the House in 2009 would have provided tens of billions of dollars in additional incentives for what industry calls clean coal But all such efforts collapsed last year with the Republican takeover of the House and the continuing softness in the economy which killed any appetite for farreaching environmental measures A senior Obama administration of cial said that the AEP decision was a direct result of the political stalemate This is what happens when you don t get a climate bill the official said insisting on anonymity to discuss a corporate decision that had not yet been publicly announced At the Energy Department Charles McConnell the acting assistant secretary of energy for fossil energy said no carbon legislation was near and unless there was a place to sell the carbon dioxide utilities would have great difficulties in justifying the expense You could have the debate all day long about whether people are enlightened about whether carbon dioxide should be sequestered he said But he added it s not a situation that is going to promote investment His department has pledged more than 3 billion to other industrial plants to encourage the capture of carbon dioxide for sale to oil drillers who use it to more easily get crude out of wells The West Virginia project was one of the most advanced and successful in the world While the coal industry s commitment and ability to develop this technology on a large scale was always uncertain the continued pollution from oldstyle coalfired power plants will certainly be damaging to the environment without the installation of carbon capture and other pollution control updates said Representative Edward J Markey Democrat of Massachusetts coauthor of the House climate bill AEP the American coal industry and the Republicans who blocked help for this technology have done our economy and energy workers a disservice by likely ceding the development of carbon capture technology to countries like China AEP which serves five million customers in 11 states operated a pilotscale capture plant at its Mountaineer generating station in New Haven WVa on the Ohio River from 2009 until May of this year But the company plans to announce on Thursday that it will complete early engineering studies and then will suspend the project indefinitely Public service commissions of both West Virginia and Virginia tumed down the company s request for full reimbursement for the pilot plant West Virginia said earlier this year that the cost should have been shared among all the states where AEP does business Virginia hinted last July that it should have been paid for by all utilities around the United States since a successful project would benefit all of them Five years ago when global warming ranked higher on the national political agenda the consensus was that this decade would be one of research and demonstration in new technologies A comprehensive 2007 study by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology concluded that global coal use was inevitable and that the ensuing few years should be used to quickly find ways to burn the cheap abundant fuel cleanly But with the demise of the Mountaineer project the United States the largest historic emitter of global warming gases now appears to have made little progress solving the problem Robert H Socolow an engineering professor at Princeton and the codirector of the Carbon Mitigation Initiative there said he was encouraged that some chemical factories and other industries were working on carbon capture without govemment incentives Mr Socolow the coauthor of an in uential 2004 paper that identi ed carbon capture as one of the critical technologies needed to slow global warming said that there was a trap ahead Lull yourself into believing that there is no climate problem or that there is lots of time to fix it and the policy driver dissolves he said in an email He added that for companies like AEP business wants to be ahead of the curve but not a lap ahead A version of this article appeared in print on July 14 2011 on page A1 of the New York edition with the headline Utility Shelves Ambitious Plan To Limit Carbon DANIELS amp DANIELS Oil Production in the 21st Century Recent innovations in underground imaging steerable drilling and deepwater oil production could recover more of what lies below by Roger N Anderson n the face of it the outlook for conventional oil the cheap easily recovered crude that has furnished more than 95 percent of all oil to date seems grim In 2010 according to forecasts the world s oilthirsty economies will demand about 10 billion more barrels than the industry will be able to produce A supply shortfall that large equal to al most half of all the oil extracted in 1997 could lead to price shocks economic recession and even wars Fortunately four major technological advances are ready to fill much of the gap by accelerating the discovery of new oil reservoirs and by dramatically increasing the fraction of oil within existing fields that can be removed economically a ratio known as the recovery factor These technologies could lift global oil production rates more than 20 percent by 2010 if they are deployed as planned on the largest oil fields within SEISMIC SURVEY builds a threedimensional picture of under ground strata one vertical slice at a time Sound waves generated at the surface ricochet off boundaries between layers of ordinary rock and those bearing oil dark brown water blue or gas yellow The returning sounds are picked up by a string of microphones Computers later translate the patterns into images and ultimately into a model that guides the drilling of wells 39 V 1 air an quot 1 g 998 Scientific American Inc three to ve years Such rapid adoption may seem ambitious for an industry that traditionally has taken 10 to 20 years to put new inventions to use But in this case change will be spurred by formidable economic forces For example in the past two years the French oil compa ny Elf has discovered giant deposits off the coast of West Af rica In the same period the company s stock doubled as in dustry analysts forecasted that Elf s production would in crease by 8 percent in 2001 If the other major oil producers follow suit they should be able by 2010 to provide an extra ve billion barrels of oil each year closing perhaps half the gap between global supply and demand This article will cover the four advances in turn beginning with a new way to track sub terranean oil c Oil Production in the 21st Century Tracking Oil in Four Dimensions 30 6 lt Finding oil became much more ef cient after 1927 when geologists rst successfully 25 4D SEISMIC translated acoustic re ections into detailed cross sections of the earth s crust Seismolo I I MONITORING 3 gists later learned how to piece together several such snapshots to create threedimensional 2 0 BEGINS I 1 I models of the oil locked inside layers of porous rock Although this technique known as I ANNUAL OIL PRODUCTION MILLIONS OF BARRELS II II 3D seismic analysis took more than a decade to become standard practice it is now cred 1395 It 0 ited with increasing oil discovery and recovery rates by 20 percent 10 I I e In recent years scientists in my laboratory at Columbia University and elsewhere have I i r39 developed even more powerful techniques capable of tracking the movement of oil gas 0395 Ia quot and water as drilled wells drain the subterranean strata a 4D scheme that includes the O added dimension of time This information can then be used to do a what if analysis on 1970 1980 1990 2000 the oil eld designing ways to extract as much of the oil as quickly and cheaply as possible Compared with its predecessor the 4D approach seems to be catching on quickly the FLOW OF on from 3 Servo number of oil elds bene ting from it has doubled in each of the past four years and now stands at about 60 Such monitoring can boost recovery factors by 10 to 15 percentage points Unfortunately the technique will work in only about half the world s major elds those where relatively soft rock is suffused with oil and natural gas in the largest eld off the Louis iana shore resurged in 1992 shortly after operators began using 4D seismic monitoring to locate hidden caches of oil INJECTION OF LIQUID CARBON DIOXIDE can rejuvenate dying oil elds Pumped at high pres sure from tanks into wells that have ceased producing oil the carbon diox ide ows through the reservoir and if all goes well pushes the remaining oil down toward active wells Steam and natural gas are sometimes also used for this purpose Alternatively water can be injected below a pocket of by passed crude in order to shepherd the oil into a well In the future smart wells currently under development will be able to retrieve oil simultane ously from some branches of the well while using other branches to pump water out of the oil stream and back into the formation from which it came is Gassing Things Up hen geologists began studying the new timelapse measurements they were surprised to discover that one of the most basic notions about oil movement that it natu rally settles between lighter gas above and heavier groundwater below oversimpli es the behavior of real oil elds In fact most wells produce com plex fractal drainage patterns that cause the oil to mix with gas and water As 39 I a result specialists now know that the traditional technique of pumping a well PRODUCTION WELLS often draw until the oil slows to a trickle often leaves 60 percent or more of the oil behind water from below and gas from above into A more ef cient strategy is to pump natural gas steam or liquid carbon di A pore spaces once full of oil This complex ow oxide into dead wells The infusion then spreads downward through pores in Strands P0Ck tS Of Crude far ff0m Wells tfad139 the rock and if one has planned carefully pushes oil that otherwise would tional drilling techniques thus miss up to two thirds of the oil in a reservoir But repeated seis mic surveys can now be assembled into a 4D model that not only tracks where oil gas and have been abandoned toward a neighboring well Alternatively water is often pumped below the oil to increase its pressure helping it ow up to the surface Injections of steam and carbon dioxide have been shown to increase recovery Water in the Ii 61 d are located but also predicts factors by 10 to 15 percentage points Unfortunately they also raise the cost of where they will go next Advanced Seismic mom Oll production by 50 to 100 percent and that added expense falls on top of a 10 itoring Works Well on about half the World s Oil to 25 percent surcharge for 4D seismic monitoring So unless carbon dioxide elds but it fails on oil buried in very hard rock becomes much cheaper perhaps because globalwarming treaties restrict its or beneath beds of salt thick white layer release these techniques will probably continue to serve only as a last resort Oil Production in the 21st Century Copyright 1998 Scientific American Inc SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN March 1998 87 DANIELS amp DANIELS background illustration Steering to Missed Oil third major technological advance known as directional drilling can tap bypassed deposits of oil at less expense than injection Petroleum engineers can use a variety of new equipment to swing a well from vertical to entirely horizontal within a reservoir several kilometers underground Traditionally drillers rotated the long steel pipe or string that connects the rig at the surface to the bit at the bottom of the well That method fails when the pipe must turn a cor ner the bend would break the rotating string So steerable drill strings do not rotate instead a muddriven motor insert ed near the bit turns only the diamondtipped teeth that do the digging An elbow of pipe placed between the mud motor and the bit controls the direction of drilling Threading a hole through kilometers of rock into a typical oil zone 30 meters about 100 feet thick is precise work Schlumberger Halliburton and other international compa nies have developed sophisticated sensors that signi cantly improve the accuracy of drilling These devices which oper ate at depths of up to 6000 meters and at temperatures as high as 200 degrees Celsius 400 degrees Fahrenheit attach to the drill pipe just above or below the mud motor Some measure the electrical resistance of the surrounding rock Others send out neutrons and gamma rays then they count the number that are scattered back by the rock and pore uids These measurements and the current position of the bit calculated by an inertial guidance system are sent back to the surface through pulses in the ow of the very mud used to turn the motor and lubricate the well bore Engineers can adjust the path of the drill accordingly thus snaking their way to the most oilrich part of the formation Once the hole is completed drillers typically erect produc tion equipment on top of the wellhead But several compa nies are now developing sensors that can detect the mix of oil gas and water near its point of entry deep within the well Smart wells with such equipment will be able to separate water out of the well stream so that it never goes to the sur face Instead a pump controlled by a computer in the drill pipe will inject the wastewater below the oil level DRILLING CONSOLE allows an engineer at the surface to monitor sensors near the drill bit that indi cate whether it has hit oil or water The drill can then be steered into position for the optimum yield HORIZONTAL DRILLING was impractical when oil rigs had to rotate the entire drill string up to 5800 meters roughly 19000 feet of it in order to turn the rockcutting bit at the bot 3 tom Wells that swing 90 degrees over a space i of just 100 meters are now common thanks to I the development of motors that can run deep un derground The motor s driveshaft connects to the bit through a transmission in a bent section of pipe The amount of bend determines how tight a curve the drill will carve drillers can twist the string to control the direc Iv av 0 tion of the turn I I HITEC DRILLING amp MARINE SYSTEMS SENSORS Ifear the bit can detect oil 5 39 quot39 a um H S PHO39390EEc3939Rc SENSORS water and gas One device measures the porosity of the surrounding rock by g F 4 emitting eutrons which scatter off hy t 539 Q drogengatoms Another takes a density reading by shooting out gamma rays that interact with adjacent electrons Oil and water also affect electrical resistance measured from a current passed through the bit the rock and nearby electrodes Ire NEUTRONS I AMMA RAYS W J IE 39 quoti I q p vs 5 LAURIE GRACE SOURCE SCHLUMBERGER 88 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN March 1998 Copyright 1998 Scientific American Inc Oil Production in the 21st Century ELECTRICAL METHANE RES39STANCE GEOLOGIC MEASUREMENTS collected by sen sors near the bottom of the drill pipe can be analyzed at the wellhead or transmitted via satellite to engi neers anywhere in the world Several characteristics of the rocks surrounding the drill bit can reveal the presence of oil or gas left Petroleum tends to accu mulate in relatively light porous rocks for example so some geosteering systems calculate the bulk densi ty of nearby strata Others measure the electrical re sistance of the earth around the drill layers soaked with briny water have a much lower resistance than those rich in oil Gas chromatographs at the surface analyze the returning ow of lubricating mud for natural gas captured during its journey DENSITY LAURIE GRACE Low A HIGH LO 1 HICH quot 3953 7quot 391quot quotp I T 139I39 g 3 k L I SMART WE LS of the near future will use com puters and water monitors near the bottom of the well to detect dilution of the oil stream by water Hydrocy clonic separators will then shunt the water into a separate branch of the well that emp ties beneath the oil reservoir it I 4 ADVANCED DRIL Ise 5 p FORIEFDt WELL5 1 d h h h v can ex rac O1 rom mu pumpe t to Lt e several oilbearing lay inside of the string tol1ro tate the bit to communi cate sensor measurements and to carry rock frag ments out of the well On its way down the mud rst enters a rotating valve ct which converts data radioed to the tool from various sensors into surges in the mud stream At the surface the pulses are translated back into a digital signal of up to 10 bits per sec ond The mud next ows into a motor A spiral driveshaft ts inside the helical motor casing in a way that creates chambers 12 As the cavities ll with mud the shaft turns in order to relieve the hydraulic pressure The mud nally exits through the rotating bit and returns to the surface with fresh cuttings cleared from near the bit ers at once Computer controlled chokes insert ed in the well pipe main tain the optimum ow of oil to the surface Copyright 1998 Scientific American Inc SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN March 1998 89 DANIELS amp DANIELS ILLUSTRATION NOT TO SCALE RAMPOWELL THREE NEW WAYS to tap oil y2 2 y2 P 2 1 g 1 IW N elds that lie deep underwater have re I H 1 F1 r 4 D p9 0 Q T I 0 0 0 f I T Zy 39I H cently been deployed Hibernia left which began producing oil last November from a eld in 80 meters of water off the coast of Newfoundland Canada took seven years and more than 4 billion to construct Its base built from 450000 tons of reinforced con crete is designed to withstand the impact of a millionton iceberg Hibernia is expected to recover 615 million barrels of oil over 18 years using water and gas injection Storage tanks will hold up to 13 million barrels of oil inside the base until it can be transferred to shuttle tankers Most deepwater platforms send the oil back to shore through subsea pipelines Wading in Deeper conventional seismic surveys they scatter nearly all the sound energy so that oil elds below are hidden from view But re cently declassi ed US Navy technology for measuring tiny P erhaps the oil industry s last great frontier is in deep wa ter in elds that lie 1000 meters or more below the sur face of the sea Petroleum at such depths used to be beyond reach but no longer Remotely controlled robot submarines can now install on the sea oor the complex equipment need ed to guard against blowouts to regulate the ow of oil at the prevailing high pressures and to prevent natural gas from freezing and plugging pipelines Subsea complexes will link clusters of horizontal wells The collected oil will then be fun neled both to tankers directly above and to existing platforms in shallower waters through long underwater pipelines In just the next three years such sea oor facilities are scheduled for construction in the Gulf of Mexico and off the shores of Norway Brazil and West Africa More than deep water alone hinders the exploitation of offshore oil and gas elds Large horizontal sheets of salt and basalt an igneous rock sometimes lie just underneath the sea oor in the deep waters of the continental margins In 90 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN March 1998 Copyright 1998 Scientific American Inc variations in the force and direction of gravity combined with ever expanding supercomputer capabilities now allows geophysicists to see under these blankets of salt or basalt Extracting oil from beneath the deep ocean is still enor mously expensive but innovation and necessity have led to a new wave of exploration in that realm Already the 10 larg est oil companies working in deep water have discovered new elds that will add 5 percent to their combined oil reserves an increase not yet re ected in global reserve estimates The technology for oil exploration and production will continue to march forward in the 21st century Although it is unlikely that these techniques will entirely eliminate the im pending shortfall in the supply of crude oil they will buy crit ical time for making an orderly transition to a world fueled by other energy sources Oil Production in the 21st Century if f s oum39IaA RAMPOWELL platform center built by Shell Oil Amoco and Exxon began production in the Gulf of Mexico last September The 46story platform is anchored to 270ton piles driven into the sea oor 980 meters below Twelve tendons each 71 centimeters in diameter provide a strong enough mooring to withstand 22meter waves and hurricane winds up to 225 kilo meters per hour The 1billion facility can sink wells up to six kilometers into the seabed in order to tap the 125 million bar rels of recoverable oil estimated to lie in the eld A 30centime ter pipeline will transport the oil to platforms in shallower water 40 kilometers away RamPowell is the third such tension leg platform completed by Shell in three years Next year Shell s plans call for an even larger platform named Ursa to start pumping 25 times as much oil as RamPowell from be low 1226 meters of water RllM L 1 D DEEPEST OE WELL in active production above currently lies more N N S S than 1709 meters beneath the waves of the South Atlantic Ocean in the Marlim eld off the coast of Campos Brazil The southern part of this eld alone is thought to contain 106 billion barrels of oil Such resources were out of reach until recently Now remotely oper ated submarines are being used to construct production facilities on the sea bottom itself The oil can then be piped to a shallower plat form if one is nearby Or as in the case of the recordholding South Marlim 3B well a ship can store the oil until shuttle tankers arrive The challenge is to hold the ship steady above the well Moorings can provide stability at depths up to about 1500 meters Beyond that limit ships may have to use automatic thrusters linked to the Global Positioning System and beacons on the sea oor to actively maintain their position These techniques may allow the industry to exploit oil elds under more than 3000 meters of water in the near future Oil Production in the 21st Century Copyright 1998 Scientific American Inc BEVIL KNAPP COMMAND CENTERS such as the one above in New Orleans allow geologists and engineers to monitor and even control drilling and production equipment in remote oil elds via satellite and modem connections With en crypted digital communications oil companies can now di agnose production problems faster and can save the ex pense of ying highly paid experts around the world The Author ROGER N ANDERSON is director of petroleum technology research at the Ener gy Center of Columbia University After growing up with a father in the oil industry Anderson completed his PhD in earth sci ences at the Scripps Institution of Oceanog raphy at the University of California San Diego He sits on the board of directors of Bell Geospace and 4D Systems and spends his summers consulting for oil and service companies Anderson has published more than 150 peerreviewed scienti c papers and holds seven US patents Further Reading DIRECTIONAL DRILLING George A Cooper in Scienti c American Vol 270 No 5 pages 8287 May 1994 DEEPWATER TECHNOLOGY Gulf Publishing Supplement to World Oil August 1997 WORLD OIL s 4D SEISMIC HANDBOOK THE FOURTH DIMENSION IN RESERVOIR MAN AGEMENT Gulf Publishing 1997 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN March 1998 91 E111 rm mtk Eimr5 White Roofs Catch on as Energy Cost Cutters By FELICITY BARRINGER Published July 29 2009 SAN FRANCISCO Returning to their ranchstyle house in Sacramento after a long summer workday Jon and Kim Waldrep were routinely met by a wall of heat We d come home in the summer and the house would be 115 degrees stifling said Mr Waldrep a regional manager for a national company He or his wife would race to the thermostat and turn on the airconditioning as their four small children just picked up from day care awaited relief All that changed last month Now we come home on days when it s over 100 degrees outside and the house is at 80 degrees Mr Waldrep said Their solution was a new roof a shiny plasticized white covering that experts say is not only an energy saver but also a way to help cool the planet Relying on the centuries old principle that white objects absorb less heat than dark ones homeowners like the Waldreps are in the vanguard of a movement embracing cool roofs as one of the most affordable weapons against climate change Studies show that white roofs reduce airconditioning costs by 20 percent or more in hot sunny weather Lower energy consumption also means fewer of the carbon dioxide emissions that contribute to global warming What is more a white roof can cost as little as 15 percent more than its dark counterpart depending on the materials used while slashing electricity bills Energy Secretary Steven Chu a Nobel laureate in physics has proselytized for cool roofs at home and abroad Make it white he advised a television audience on Comedy Central s Daily Show last week The scientist Mr Chu calls his hero Art Rosenfeld a member of the California Energy Commission who has been campaigning for cool roofs since the 1980s argues that turning all of the world s roofs light over the next 20 years could save the equivalent of 24 billion metric tons in carbon dioxide emissions That is what the whole world emitted last year Mr Rosenfeld said So in a sense it s like turning off the world for a year This month the Waldreps threebedroom house is consuming 10 percent less electricity than it did a year ago The savings would be greater if the family ran its central air during the workday From Dubai to New Delhi to Osaka Japan re ective roofs have been embraced by local officials seeking to rein in energy costs In the United States they have been standard equipment for a decade at new WalMart stores More than 75 percent of the chain s 4268 outlets in the United States have them California Florida and Georgia have adopted building codes that encourage whiteroof installations for commercial buildings Drawing on federal stimulus dollars earmarked for energyefficiency projects state energy offices and local utilities often offer financing for cool roofs The roofs can qualify for tax credits if the roofing materials pass muster with the Environmental Protection Agency s Energy Star program Still the ardor of the coolroof advocates has prompted a bit of a backlash Some roofing specialists and architects argue that supporters fail to account for climate differences or the complexities of roof construction In cooler climates they say re ective roofs can mean higher heating bills Scientists acknowledge that the extra heating costs may outweigh the airconditioning savings in cities like Detroit or Minneapolis But for most types of construction they say light roofs yield significant net benefits as far north as New York or Chicago Although those cities have cold winters they are heat islands in the summer with hundreds of thousands of square feet of roof surface absorbing energy The physics behind cool roofs is simple Solar energy delivers both light and heat and the heat from sunlight is readily absorbed by dark colors An asphalt roof in New York can rise to 180 degrees on a hot summer day Lighter colors however reflect back a sizable fraction of the radiation helping to keep a building and more broadly the city and Earth cooler They also reemit some of the heat they absorb Unlike hightechnology solutions to reducing energy use like lightemitting diodes in lamp fixtures white roofs have a long and humble history Houses in hot climates have been whitewashed for centuries Before the advent of central airconditioning in the mid2othcentury white and cream colored houses with re ective tin roofs were the norm in South Florida for example Then central airconditioning arrived along with dark roofs whose basic ingredients were often asphalt tar and bitumen or asphaltbased shingles These materials absorb as much as 90 percent of the sun s heat energy often useful in New England but less so in Texas By contrast a white roof can absorb as little as 10 percent or 15 percent Relative newcomers to the West and South brought a lot of habits and products from the Northeast said Joe Reilly the president of American Rooftile Coatings a supplier What you see happening now is common sense Around the country roof makers are racing to develop products in the hope of profiting as the movement spreads from the at roofs of the country s malls to the sloped roofs of its suburbs Years of detailed work by scientists at the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory have provided the roof makers with a rainbow of colors the equivalent of a table of the elements showing the amount of light that each hue re ects and the amount of heat it reemits White is not always a buyer s first choice of color So suppliers like American Rooftile Coatings have used federal color charts to create cool but traditional colors like cream sienna and gray that yield savings though less than dazzling white roofs do In an experiment the National Laboratory in Oak Ridge Tenn had two kinds of terra cottacolored cement tiles from American Rooftile installed on four new homes at the Fort Irwin Army base in California One kind was covered with a special paint and re ected 45 percent of the sun s rays nearly twice as much as the other kind The two homes with roofs of highly re ective paint used 35 percent less electricity last summer than the two with less re ective paint Still William Miller of the Oak Ridge laboratory who organized the experiment says he distrusts the margin of difference he wants to figure out whether some of it resulted from different family habits Hashem Akbari Dr Rosenfeld s colleague at the Lawrence Berkeley laboratory says he is unsure how long it will take cool roofs to truly catch on But he points out that most roofs whether tile or asphaltshingle have a life span of 20 to 25 years If the roughly 5 percent of all roofs that are replaced each year were given cool colors he said the country s transformation would be complete in two decades SCIENTIFIC T April 1991 Volume 264 39 Number 4 I The Real Cost of Energy Bringing market prices in line with energy s hidden burdens will he one of the great challenges of the coming decades fense spent more than 15 billion as much as 54 billion according to some estimates to safeguard oil sup plies in the Persian Gulf Early Penta gon estimates for the current war tack on another 30 billion The smallest of these gures adds about 2350 to the actual cost of each barrel import ed into the US By supporting this sur charge the US is subsidizing con sumers of Middle East oil both at home and abroad This subsidy is only one of the more visible ways in which the US and oth er nations affect the energy market En ergy costs society billions of dollars more than its users pay directly for oil coal gas or electricity Other hid den costs of energy include tax credits enviromnental degradation increased health care expenditures and lost em ployment Estimates for the US alone range between 100 billion and 300 billion per year although the precise amount is the subject of ongoing argu ments among economists environmen talists and policymakers In 1989 the US Department of De HAROLD M HUBBARD has spent most of his career working in energy and en vironmental research and development He is now a visiting senior fellow at Re sources for the Future in Washington DC having recently retired as execu tive vice president of Midwest Research institute From 1981 through 1990 he was also director of the Solar Energy Re search institute Hubbard received his PhD in chemistry from the Universi ty of Kansas in 1951 He would like to acknowledge the assistance of Julie A Phillips in the preparation of this article 36 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN Apn39I1991 by Harold M Hubbard Daniel Sperling and Mark A DeLu chi of the University of California at Da vis have found for example that trans portation fuels gasoline and diesel are priced well below their real costs The 200 billion gallons of fuel burned each year for transportation consti tute roughly a third of total energy con sumption Because vehides are typical ly relatively inefficient and their emis sions occur in proximity to people and buildings they account for more than their share of energy s extra burdens In addition to the drag such buried costs place on the economy they also distort the choices of both consumers and policymakers Because the gap be tween sale price and actual cost is great est for fossil fuels unmasking these costs could provide strong incentives for a transition to more sustainable en ergy use Recognizing and minimizing the so cietal costs of energy while still pro viding the energy required 10 fuel a growing global economy will become an even more pressing concern in com ing decades The world39s population is expected to increase from 55 billion today to more than seven billion by 2010 Moreover demand for energy in the less developed countries will rise precipitously as they strive to increase their living standards The burdens that a barrel of oil or a kilowatthour of electricity imposes be yond its stated price are what econo mists call extemalities costs borne by people who are not parties to the trans action that imposes them For more than two decades environmental econ omists and ecologists have been strug gling to identify and measure the eit ternal costs of energy production and consumption Meanwhile conventional economicsand current market policy ignore extemalities effectively setting their cost at zero Ignoring environmental and other social costs leads to what social sci entist Garrett J Hardin has called the tragedy of the commonsquot Market for ces lead inexorably to overuse of un derpriced goods be they public graz ing lands village dumps or free water supplies indeed Hardin has charted the progress of civilization in terms of the internalization of costs formerly viewed as external Perhaps the first external cost to be internalized was that of raw materi als Even in prehistoric times rules of private property and land ownership protected such valuable resources as copper ore not to mention the fertile land itself Since then lengthy and painful pro cesses have internalized the cost of la bor by the abolition of serfdom the cost of raising and educating the labor force rst by free public education and now in many countries by materni ty leave and child care and the cost of workplace safety by workers compen sation and insurance bene ts Today chemical and thermal wastes generat ed by industrial processes 39 and energy KUWAITI OIL TERMINAL burns after a naval battle in this wirephoto image from the Persian Gulf Even in peace time oil imports necessitate billions of dollars in defense spending The author argues that the market price of energy should better reflect its military social environmental and other hidden costs I I I u 6 i quot 4t production in particular pose a new challenge for internalization But calculating the actual cost of en39 ergy is not a simple matter It is clear that consumption of different forms of energy generates costs beyond the mar ket price but the nature and amount of those costs are difficult to quantify The answers that economists derive may depend as much on social values as they do on analytical solutions to well de ned problems For example the health effects of air pollution are an important added cost of both power generation and the con sumption of fuels for transportation Yet it is difficult to set exact prices for increased lung disease among senior citizens or lead poisoning among ur ban school children let alone rank the two problems against each other Al though certain energy technologies im pose a lower overall burden than oth ers all choices impose an unequal bur den on some sector of the population Policymakers must also decide which extemal costs they are willing to take into account and which ones they will ignore Consider the costs of energy related accidents Does one count only major disasters such as the Chernobyl explosion or the Exxon Valdez oil spill or should every accident involving local gasoline and fueloil tank trucks be fac tored into the equation 39 This question becomes even more dif ficult in the case of costs that are not easily quantified Emironmental costs include not only building corrosion toxic waste emissions and crop loss es but also generation of greenhouse gases destruction of natural habitats and loss of species diversity How are these to be valued Similarly how does one gauge the costs of the dislocations caused by the boomandbust cycle of oil prices and who should pay it conomists are making progress toward answering some of these questions A number of methods can be used to calculate various por tions of the real cost of energy Among the simplest to calculate are the sub sidies roughly 50 billion per year that the federal government delivers to energy producers in the form of tax CORROSION T 0 g p 0p 5rf7 Iii 77 HEALTH IMPACTS II II II laazresm as e onoe LOSSES II J as i tar RADIOACTIVE WASTE III h quot fed i71 f t liii 1 MILITARY IIIIII II saunasnew EMPLOYMENT III II I iiquot3139i 293 lquot5lf quoti4 p 39at SUBSIDIES IIIIII I tar39gt w ei U OIIIa 39 r n It 39 m H 39 393939 39 A39 f quot rai 39 5 i L T P 39 3939 7 H 3 P 3939 39 E A I 0 5 339 39 quot39 39 3 1 e V I 39739 3939 3 I 39a quot 39 1 1 3923 ll u d E 39 39 D 44391 l39 39 39 i 39 v 2 P 2 quot2quot i7 17157 39 Estimates of societal burdens created by energy consumption and production vary widely depending on researchers initial assumptions The largest varia tion is in health effects which re ect both the dif culty of putting a price on human life and disagreements as to what part of pollutionrelated disease costs should be ascribed to energy use credits and research funding About 26 billion goes to fossil fuels which supply 85 percent of the roughly 80 quadrillion B39I Us consumed in the US each year Another 19 billion sub sidizes nuclear power which supplies about 7 percent of US energy con sumption and 3 billion supports re newable energy sources which supply about 8 percent 39 Researchers have used three dispar ate methods to calculate the environ mental effects of energy consumption control cost damage cost and contin gent evaluation Control cost is the sun plest measure and also the least ac curate it merely tallies the amount a powerplant operator automobile man ufacturer or other enterprise must spend to comply with existing environ mentalstandards Altemative technolo gies can be compared according to their control costs Unfortunately the expense of meet ing federal regulations bears little or no relation to the damages imposed on society by a given pollutant Permissi ble emission levels and thus the cost of controlling them typically depend on political compromises among inter est groups rather than technical under standing of the problems at hand Furthermore calculations of control costs are usually specific to particular pollutants and control technologies they may not address all the risks in volved and they may not even repre sent the most costeffective approach 3839 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN April 1991 to solving a particular environmental problem For example scrubbers used to remove sulfur emissions from coal cost significantly more than just burn ing lowsulfur coal to start with Measuring actual damage to the en vironment yields figures that could be much more appropriate for choos ing among energy options This meth od however requires a detailed under standing of how each of the pollutants emitted by a given energy source moves through the atmosphere how it under goes chemical transformations how it is deposited in water on lung surfaces and elsewhere and how much it af fects each entity it encounters In principle it should be relatively I easy to estimate the damage done by various energy sources to marlltetval ued goods such as crops or building materials In practice analysts often disagree I or evample the Environmen tal Protection Agency estimates that energyrelated ozone emissions reduce US crop yields by 12 percent cost ing more than 25 billion per year Researchers at Cornell University have placed the lost yield as high as 30 per cent Similarly it has been estimated that if the US produced all its own oil rather than importing it the increased employmentof U 3 workers would be worth 30 billion to the economy as a whole Many Economists however would dispute this conclusion assert ing that workers who lose energyrelat ed jobs are absorbed into other sectors of the economy 39 Moreover many of the entities that suffer from environmental degrada tion are not commercially traded and so their value is not easily measured Among them are historical monuments species diversity ecosystem preserva tion wildlife and wilderness areas and visibility insisting on a precise value for such items is simply a recipe for prolonged inaction Researchers can set a reason able price by indirect methods such as contingent evaluation Surveys can find out how much people would be will ing to pay to avoid incurring a specific kind of environmental damage or other social cost or conversely how much compensation they would ask to be willing to suffer a particular insult to their surroundings In 1990 the Bonneville Power Admin istration canvassed rate payers in Ore gon Washington Idaho and Montana to determine how much they might be willing to pay for alternatives such as solar energy wind power or increased energy conservation A representative sampling of these 36 million consum ers indicated that they would be stilling to pay 1330 each or a total of 48 million extra a year to avoid having a nuclear power plant built near them Consumers were willing to pay 46 mil lion to avoid a fossilfuel plant and S 20 million to avoid a new hydroelectric plant These are hardly insubstantial sums to apply to the development of al ternative energy technologies Contingent evaluation can also put prices on potential future environmen tal risks such as nuclear accidents or global warming whose likelihood and cost are both unquanti able by conven tional means Although such valuations must be treated with caution they may furnish a middle ground for action in situations where policymakers might otherwise be caught between advocates of intense anticipatory crisis manage ment and those who insist on a wait andsee approach uring 1989 the Of ce of Conser vation and Renewablequot Resourc es at the US Department of En ergy conducted two preliminary studies on the external cost of electric power P I J 39 1 I n 39 I aaaeeal L I II 39 r 1 ti The H1ddenC0SIS Qflinersy 25 I 0 T 0 F 392 if 3quot 3 5 quot f f 3 w p T onsosopwaas u 0M quot 5 r 39 Q I39vlINIMuME39sTiMATE f 4 p 39 t Tci l quot g I P j 7 5 33 5 u o or DlSA RElMENTS 0 7 39 50 f w tt39feLeoi 79 i 39 P 80 G I quot f I 7 I 39 39 39 139 I 39 39 quot r E quotI r 39 39 39 u 1 I 39 39 1 39 39 lt I I I r 39 A r I a 39 390 39 39I 39 J n I Y s generation The studies compared air pollution land use material require ments and carbon dioxide emissions from fossilfuel nuclear and renewable energy technologies at all stages of gen eration from initial fuel extraction to decommissioning The results provide a mechanism for comparing the environ mental impacts of energy technologies ligiahl l ll lll ll quot39 U as I that quotAr I quotquotlX r 39 V 2 quotquotquot03939quot Qu 4pg I I 39 I p 13 i39 4 Jquot ACID RAIN damage is among the bestestablished conse however because quences of energy consumption Its cost is difficult to assess that have very different characteristics One important fact highlighted by the DOE studies is that no energy tech nology is completely emironmentally benign For example although photo voltaic cells emit no pollutants during operation their manufacture requires large quantities of hazardous materi als and their ultimate disposal could quotquotquot73939n39r en r 39 39 it 2 39ill39 339iii1x li3939 aIili 1 P S 39 39 If I if 13 39a9 1bu1u Q I t Q 39 J 1 anIavu039 39iUl39 I 3939 39 39dgI L 0E 1 HvI II 539J3939 QFIlIK3 r 39 39 39 quotquot39quot39 393939 1t1F quotquot11fff 39 fa I an fa u39 l quotIvanu 39 39 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN April 199 release toicic elements such as arse nic and cadmium to the emiromnent The studies found however that com plaints of eltcessive land use leveled at solar and renewable energy tech nologies are inaccurate producing en ergy from coal or uranium has similar real estate demands The only differ ence is that coal uranium and biomass 39 39 39 nqupq1In 39D39 n39 o 39 39 39 r 39 Uquot39i1Iquot nn57p3939IPi amp r39 it affects assets such as forests streams and lakes whose market value is not readily quantified 3 consume land at fuelextraction sites whereas solar and wind power consume land at the generating site Some of the choice among various energy technologies then is a matter of selecting the kind and location of ex temalities Nevertheless the DOE work ers did nd an overall difference in to tal extemalities Nuclear power under normal operation photovoltaics and renewable energy sources clearly do less damage to their enviromnent than does coal burning 39 The DOE policy office has commis sioned further studies at Oak Ridge National laboratory and Resources for the Future to analyze all the net social costs of different methods of energy production For each fuel cycle under study fossil uranium or renewable workers will measure all resource im pacts including requirements for la bor capital and materials as well as en ergy s effects on air and water quality and on national security This project is proceeding in conjunction with simi 39 lar studies by the European CornmurIi tyand other nations When the work is completed in 1992 policymakers will be better able to compare existing and emerging energy technologies ow shouldthe external costs of energy be internalized Taxes on energy offer a simple means to harness the actual power of the mar ketplace A number of economists have estimated for example thata tax of S 28 per ton on carbon containing fuels would stabilize emissions of carbon di oxide the primary cause of the green house effect over the coming decade It would also reduce emissions of oth er pollutants Taxes may not always be the best method for internalizing energy costs In some cases such as electricity gen eration the choice of energy source is irrevocably made long before anyone starts paying taxes on the amount of fuel consumed Many state utili ty boards have turned to a technique known as integrated resource planning which aims to meet energy demand at the least possible overall cost This method entails examining the costs of many diiferent options in addition to simply building new pow er plants Factors considered include conservation ef ciency improvements in existing systems conversion to new fuel sources and nontraditional resour ces such as wind or solar energy So far 26 states have begun the process of re quiring public utilities to account for external costs in their integrated re source plans 18 have already mandat ed that this be done II As a first step public utility commis The Cost of Meeting Electricity Demand I J tnJALI ampJi IELfs II i4 I2nI EXISTING COMMERCIAL gnlngnggggggqqggg lllll 39I 1 39 3939 39 n 39I 4anlJ5 3939 39tr quot 39 39 I I 3939139III I 393939 a I V1 53139 i 4 quotJquot vII 1 5 39 1oquotl 0 1 tO quot EXISTING CDMMERCIAL DISCRETIONAFIY IlilI Ilg3939393939r39 391 lt NEw MULTIFAMILY RESIDENTIAL Q lqigllgggggglggggggggg Q 5 9S f EXISTING MULTIFAMILY RESIDENTIAL Ilqllqgglggqggggggggnglg pk ja quot CONSERVATION ds R quot 39 quotquotquot U FEF GEW R3 iiaii ilts 333TE i ii teasers ii i 3 is3ifi s N N O NEWCOMMEHCIAL p p WATER O O P NEW COMMERCIAL DISCRETIONARY a s O ug P NEw MANUFACTURED HOUSING I4I ll5Igl l lI3I g O N vW If U 3IL I aI 39 5 I3939 EXISTING SINGLEFAMILY RESIDENTIAL p U i k 39 NEW SINGLEFAMILY RESIDENTIAL lIllllIIIl39ll3l139 0 w o p6a L 3393 39 LL HYDFIOELECTRIC EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS SMALL HYDROELECTRIC PLANTS IMPORTED HYDROELECTRIC POWER COGENERATION i 39aw 139 IIIIIIIHIE 11 394 LJ IIIIIIIIII I i 4H n39 ll39llIIFP i ii i u IIIl J T 5kf n ffl I 2 P 5 quot 1 x LH 39 393igt4i 39quotIquot393I 39 L 39 C8 W 39 T r all u uJ a u I Q a I I 39i I I 9 1 u I 1 J J 39 J A3 J iquot n Q c I Q Isu nilmumml l 39u 39 4 1 I i 39quota39i 39quot quot 39 nu Isl I HuhL3 l1i LJ an39quot i EI L iEs 1 4 39I139 3939j39l39 39 quot3f 397quot 339 B 7B 39 quotI 0 3 h 0 A 391 H51 5 Ku uh Slams m N5u IanIIaIIm 0 39 quot quot 39 quot39quot z I 1 39 N 39 o p 9 39 8 b P W 3 I a Iug 4rJuI39uH I39439JL I fixed s 393939l f I L 1 u 1 car P i 1 quot3939quot 39gt39u39394uLfL 39 II A 39 I TRANSMISSION LINE IMPROVEMENTS r Lr Iii La I quot I PI lJIJ M A 39 0 139 39l J Ill quotI Iiiithi u39saiI1 0 4 39I u3939 L 39 5 I I I 3 I COMPLETING PARTIALLY BUILT NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS GAS TURBINES 2 4 I I I I I 3933 i Q JI quot39 I L 1 39I In r T r u min 390 hi 3 141 0 ht I laz m 0 I 3939 COALFIRED GENERATORS I 9 sill II 1 i p 3 i o Ii P F 39 0 h 39quot I ur 4 39 39 I x I39T 3W Bc 0 Iquot v 9 u inn up39 1rn1tIaIuampnnus SOURCE BONNEVILLE POWER ADMINISTRATION Making additional electricity available bylinvesting in ef cient power plants This analysis includes both direct costs and so buildings and equipment is less expensive than building new cial burdens lighter shades indicate a range of estimates 40 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN AprI39l1991 sions often decide to give preference to technologies that provide economic and environmental bene ts without speci fying exactly how the preference will work The next stage is to include ex temalities by adding a fixed percentage to the estimated costs of polluting tech nologies or by subtracting a similar percentage from the estimated costs of conservation or alternative energy tech nologies These socalled percentage adders are a simple although arbitrary way of bringing environmental costs to bear in the marketplace Wisconsin for example considers either conservation or nonfossil fuel generating capacity economically com parable to a conventional system even if it costs as much as 15 percent more The state39s public service commission also requires utilities to include the fu ture cost of mitigating airquality prob lems in proposals to renovate existing power plants These estimates must take into account the increased expen ditures that will be needed to meet fu ture emission standards which are ex pected to be more stringent than those in effect today Several states have begtm employ ing more sophisticated methods that value environmental costs directly New York State for example adds a certain amount per kilowatthour based on air and water pollution and land degrada tion to the expected price of electricity from each source A coalburning pow er plant without scrubbers located in the middle of a city would merit a pen alty of 1405 cents per kilowatthour or nearly 25 percent of its total cost Oth er power sources are penalized pro portionately less Yet other states including California Oregon Wisconsin New Jersey and Col orado are examining even more com plex methods such as those developed by Shepard C Buchanan and his col leagues at the Bonneville Power Admin istration These approaches are based on the total cost per kilowatthour pro duced or saved over the lifetime of a powergenerating or conservation re source The total cost includes the capi tal cost of building a plant or purchas ing conservation equipment the incre mental costs of generating or saving each kilowatthour and various identi able environmental and social costs Conservation receives an additional 10 percent bonus because of its many un quanti ed environmental bene ts Applying this scheme to the Bonne ville Power Administration39s own needs for the next 20 years produced surpris ing results The most costeffective re sources were conservation and efficien cy improvements in existing hydroelec 42 scmmrmc AMERICAN ApriI199l edsfeiit we Facue TH8 53515 ONLY 139 THE aiRcRaFT caRRieR is 470 T1la Tam is 125 THe STe2tLTH FlGHTeR is 330 Tlle Gas Mass is 45 amp THe T 601 3095 30 a G3Ll N vam R ix 39 lquot39fly 3 22 II I 39 l i l39I n 393quot IIquot 139rquot39Iquot133 fl 3 I E tric facilities The most expensive op tions new nuclear plants cogeneration and coal red generators cost two to three times as much per generated kilo watthour Although such a study considers39con servation as a way of meeting electric ity demand as regulations stand to day virtually the only way for utili ties to increase pro ts is to sell more electricity Regulations must be sys tematically revised to allow utilities to make a pro t from conservation by their customers ork by the DOE and others is V making an important contri bution to understanding the societal costs of energy Translated into energypricing mechanisms this under standing will allow the marketplace to move toward wise and pro table long term energyuse decisions Currently however the federal government is lag ging while enlightened states such as California New York and Wisconsin are leading the way particularly with re spect to planning for electric power gen eration The federal government should follow suit by imposing taxes on fuels to match their extemal costs Govemment can help in other ways by establishing performance standards that encourage the development of new products that save energy by educat ing the public about the need for a broader perspective on energy pricing and by funding research and develop ment of advanced energy technologies Sooner or later the public has to pay the real cost of energy Paying those costs sooner means higher prices for gasoline heating oil and electricity This will be uncomfortable even painful for consumers Attempting to pay 1at er however may cost consumers far more and require more drastic action If the coming decades bring unprec edented climate changes and an in creasingly poisonous atmosphere con sequences may include severe curtail ment of heavy industry banning of private automobiles in urban centers mandatory restrictions of heating and air conditioning and escalating global conflicts over resources and pollution Clearly the sooner that policymak ers and citizens act prudently to inter nalize all the costs of energy the bet ter Paying societal and environmental costs up front will mean higher pric es for today39s energy consumers But these higher prices will encourage more ef cient use of energy and will favor technologies that are costeffective for society as a whole When prices re ect full costs the market is an excellent system for strengthening the economy and for dealing with such serious is sues as clean air global climatic change and energy security FURTHER READING BLUEPRINT FOR A GREEN Economy Da vid Pearce Anil Markandya and Edward B Barbier London Environmental Eco nomics Centre Earthscan Publications 1939 SOCLETAI COSTS or ENERGY A ROUND TABLE Boulder 010 American Solar Energy Society 1989 THE ENVIRONMENTAI COSTS or ENERGY SUPPLY A FRAMEWORK roa ESTIMA TION Alan Krupnick Resources for the Future 1990 ENV39IRONMENTAL ECONOMICS A SURVEY Maureen L Cropper quotand Wallace E Oates Resources for the Future IQQOJ to pay lat umers far ic action 1g unprec a nd an inT there cony re curtail arming of n centers rating and ing global pollution aoliqvnalo 3 to inter y the bet tonmental gher pric mers But rage more will f avor lecnve for ces reflect 3 excellent V E ECDIIOIIIY erious is w tic change om Da d Edward antal Eco ulicatlons 5 ROUND can Solar F ENERGY ESI39CL es for the A Stntv1i39 39al1ace E re 1990 L if V 0w gee 3 gt 39 391quot J quot J la u u l39 g39 i c 39 1 r 6 iii i an 39 Jl n H r Waste Figure 11 Conceptual diagram of an industrial process internalizing External Costs The conceptual ow diagram in Figure 11 applies to any industrial process The process takes inputs raw materials and converts them to products while generating wastes that are assumed to be valueless The wastes may be in solid liquid or gaseous form and their disposal can impose a burden on the environment for example by requiring unsightly land lls or by polluting streams or the atmosphere In the past the environmental impacts of waste streams were usually disregarded and accordingly the costs of those impacts that were actually borne by the producer were negligible They were erternalizedquot The cost to the producer of manufacturing the product was simply the cost ofthe inputs and the cost ofbuilding and operating the production Facility Today a great deal of attention is given to reducing the environmental burdens of waste disposal and accordingly the monetary costs of disposing of wastes have risen Companies can be expected to act rationally in selecting processes that minimize the overall cost of production including the cost of waste disposal in some cases the monetary cost of disposal borne by the company may also include the residual cost to the environment inflicted by the waste streams that is the residual environmental costs are quotinternalizedquot If the cost to the company For waste disposal properly reflects the environmental burden then one can expect that the company will select the process that is most eliicient for society which is the process that minimizes the total social cost However even under these circumstances environmental groups may not be satisfied First there may be disagreement as to whether the residual environmental costs have been correctly internalized Second there will always be some environmental advocates who place greater value on reducing harmful environmental impacts than can be justified on the basis of economic optimization One cannot expect to satisfy all environmental concerns any more than one should expect to satisfy all the concerns ofany interest group However the governing principle is clear To the extent possible environmental costs to society should be internalized in the sense that these costs should be included in the total cost incurred by the company in producing its product and therefore in the price paid for the product by the company39s customers lquotlQ tll t 2 ml ll1 1 ll quotuuii arc l ll l ll kl on tlic tlit11 ztiii to the riolit l 39t i ll lllk quotK m lmnt l3quotu ol tlic gt39cctilit iN Ciycm i l h 39 n tl nit lt l lCtf39lll nhotit quotWu olltlic grccnliotix c cllcct quotL39 l lt l itint c11l alwottt Wu olitlic grccnliousc cl 1Lg1 ll 39lt tlmnc l pictiitx iihont 15 t olltlic g1 cciiliou c cllicct 39tmliiu in tlic gllllk lLlk Real ostolilincrgquotliicl1ol tlic 6 ltll 16 nw ilk lllkllCll or quotctci 1ittl quotquot costs associzitctl lllt L IlL I quot iviwiliictiaxiiquot i klltl min I quot t ii i1iiicr x ll10Illl llV cncrg bill tn lilitir co39t tl tgtI rcqtiirctl to mztintztin the clcctric glritl 7 hicli ol tlic lolloing211 c l Rl439l olitltc Sccnario in climate cliz1139is1c T351 lt ignorcs tlic cxtcrnztl costs ollcncrgy production V l lt cinpliusics ciic1 g clilicicncy as 1 21l ll21l lix 11 calls for immediate and drastic cut to O3 emissions pw lt xxould avoid l icll c s 39hscr39ation principle Part II 10 pts 1 pt each MATCHING Fill in the best matching letter for each concept on the left Each letter may only be used once 39 i i W 1 39 l lnci ctsi1igl39 common in Rural Alrica 1110110 1 1 7TlW ll 39illztrd s Whccl u quot it gcncrat 3 lIt t1iquot1lcnt llcztd 77 ii 33 l E l V cn u S lt12 L 39l5t1rhtrreii14iateelt 3r3crr amppe xe14 I ll i tquot139 grcc C r p Nct l 1ici39g39 onsidcration pU L V 39 icociigiiiccririg 39 L r 1111150 ll l7mlT l llclms Project G WP Strait of Hormuz si S BaseLoad Electricity Supply N A M l C lltxt lUl ll39Il39lll lllxlk y it 39t is l J l 3 Z39 Z R 94Qcad quotquot ll v l l lquot quot39 L l l illwl lhc 10 3911C tlCI1UlxXl h and B in the diauitim below and include the 39l v i vlHlll iitt l Kl l 39 Part IV 27 pts Answer the following questions clearly and concisely of the following terms ll7iSCRlBl the term as it relites to the l ll pt for each answer For each 9 it is in fact a term in the cqtiation lt m term is not lirtl1 s energy balance rate equation ONLY 11 m ilk equation write not part of the equation e 4 Sa v Q15CZ 7 1 4 v A 7 FM l 939 7 aSC Li c amp39 quotquot quotf v e 0 d p d p2S 39 PT PH PG Mz 7 ampdamp r pBe 7quot39T r7quot39z 39l f 7 39 TVi HC9 4 12vzquot J Q l MwWquotji lp h SW itr scZlta i 5I et pb s 4Cl T4 e l C P ew 274 7 JgfA SC 0 b 5 Q4 b hc W b A 39 it1 jtum 43 lt 4 2 2 pts Using the relevant terms in tie problem i1l39gt0 C rite out the ln th 5 energy balance rate equation 3 AZ 3 gt P Q 2 Z 2 pts each Identify thp1 0p1 tate 0bCClS in the diagram to the lett 391 lllt tlitxlieti line ma iv tla llf39 lll mcin V i pj gt V L V 39v 393 l M I L ts t i t iiclc the 1Il oltltc gr1ph 1lit pmt itlcit1gttilic1tioit tor iiui lu39ticiciI L Ull5L l Lllltlll in my llCtlL l if lgtl L liii 1ctcri 39e the countries i ith m lllll at less than 06 as tl zt iclne to the grupli teg L it igo lgL T lquottl 12 opi3 etc quot b Cr 39 3943 Lice A Vpf39 1 5417 A a at5 p a L0 c p b Zr T 39b0 13 tl lhe populations that represent these count quotes represent about what percent of the world population Circle one Human Development index liiJi 139lir m i 39 r 39u iquott39 J I i I l L llrllquot I l lll39 Hi ll L l I lion 1 tgtontl ll 39 lttitllb Ultiacapncitors 1 7 0 1 003 StItd ilonvcutloniit O H 391 tizipacitors k 10 100 1000 391 0000 quot 41 239 l C 245 UrL cl l h l Vil39 5 l HLBILI 1 4quotquot I 39i39l In quotT i 39 39 39 39quot quotquot39 quot quotquot quotquotquotquot quot39 I ltv rmr K 391 mm J 1 quotl 39 I VI an J mun1 rm i3 K11 iklxlux H E O O O 39 IJ1l IH alum Uquot quot quot7 V ltul quot gtlJ rvmr llrl North Africa and West Asia NAWA 9 Central and South America Dcvelopinq Asia Industrialized countries Mirldle East 0 Eastern Europe and former USSR cg 2l Vtlurlri Av r14 Jquot Huv ii nquot1atlvipzinntlnrli39 I V quotI quot l 1 39 V Iquot 39 39 V l 2001 1000 1Ull amp 0 CquotJ l00DO 13000 141200 Annual per Capita Electricity Use kWh 5 510 gt40quoto l1 P1 for each mw39er The world average Human Development Index is world ll erage per capita electricity consumption is 39 llA 39 f1 39li lfdllquotl39l39ll39 UHDll39I Z quot l I l H 000 Wl 39l lfquotl nv rr tltv following questions with 39 W lt i 3 in l t t mi ul tlit l39ium l39lul lollit391iilit I 2 IN V w L 4quot Lg E Lquotquot 7 z 3939 f39393939 4 I 7Kl0 03L61 C r 7V 0 ltmeue7fo C601f gas and the N A M I C Part V 12 pts Quantitative question SHOW ALL WORK to get credit 2 k output in 39indy conditions the total c1 1c1 g39 numbers to trhiuc gcitcnttcti the same MJ is in d m kl HiLlH wind turhiuc in 1 1c1 hztc139m1gm 11 1 l t zittqi h 1uti 3 1 t tushim tut thou1gt1n1nd Ltmthtimis she gztvc lu txxcnty lt0t1t 39 uur h1c1jard u M i V quot WV i iIquotUlL39 u1 s1id Ltliititiiii l t 1 V J Q U9 1 iquot1H 1101 gas 151115 1115 miuimuttun how much c1tci39g39 1n 1itiUtil1ii LKIHUH ml t1uHng ntlzud scictitihc notation 9 Bx c 54 V it i t 1 l dL 1tt 1l the iminhcixs are you uiquotcu and cxp139cssthcm in 8121 with quot 1 ktiilkk tlllltx XcLU 5 ay G47 5CKI 4 7 V4 39 CCU 2 9 7Z 39 IE1 V i 1 D1 hut do tgtu nccd to suhc tut 7 3939 O 1 ZCeV Z dquot 35 0 5quot C P ptxi hz1t ucncrztl furmuizt must he used to solve this pr0b1cm quot quotquot d 17 PM gt80 the formula tu ztitsxwx the question Show 2111 work to get credit Box our 1nsicr Zlt7quot 9 I 0 7zlti 15 1 1 611 1 1111 1111x1 1 13911 1 1 1 Q 1g 1 1 1 1111111111111 111 111 tly 11111it11d 1gttt11 llUl llPl CHOICE f T g M If P I I 1 R f 1 11 1 K iquotv 1 ti 1 139 K 1 H 1 39 V 11 1 13 9 391i H 4 1 1 quot1H11 1x 111 1 1 1 1 f 1111111111 1111711111 i11139 1 1 PY 11 111 11111 1 11111fi11g 11I L 1391 1 1 11 pJ H11 L 1i 1L 1 1 3911 CI 1 1 U11 1 1T CI39 1 1 1 11 11 1 1111111 1111 1111quot 1111111 i11 3913911r11 111 5111 1111 11 118C 1 11 1 1 1 1111 11dc1i 1131111 111111 1 1 Ic1111111 211111 c 111c1 c3911sc1i 1 1 1 9 1 1 1111 11 1E1 lt 111 1111c111i11113911l cli1111z11c 1 111g1c I 391 2111 WU 31CC 139diquot 7 1quot D1119 H k Q Ac 211 amp11k 1 1 1 1 1111111 111 11 crj s11 lt111g Ic1dc1 sh1p mlc 111 1mpl1111c111111g I1 1 1 w H 1 1111quot11gt11 1 11h11 cltgt111111 1cs quot39a V 1 1 5 F 1 39 1 11quot1quot11 1 I11 1 1391 11 1c1 11111 1111 u1h113911l p1 i11cip1cs are c 13139 39111I11tcd 1 111 1 111 p 11 1 11 1 11139 1391 c11I p1 cd1c121hilit 111 I P 51109955 1 1 1 11 1111 1 11 1 1 139111391 i11 u111 i139I 7 docs 11111 111cc1 the c1111d111011S0i moral