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Date Created: 12/22/15
WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM R W EE E K L Y P 20 JAN – 24 JAN 2014 O Blow by Blow R On T Bullions, Base metals, Energy… MAJOR EVENTS India's second largest commodity bourse, National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange has launched a new reference price for gold that is guaranteed to be free from distortion and ambiguity. GOLDHEDGE, an innovative gold contract that will signal the most transparent and straightforward price benchmark of this precious metal to the consumer is available for trading from January 16, 2014. NCDEX launches For the first time in the 10-year history of Indian commodity derivatives trading, jewellers, traders, banks, consumers, and gold refiners will be able to perceiverence maximum co-relation between Indian and international gold prices through the GOLDHEDGE contract, which is designed to remain unclouded by domestic demand- price for Gold in supply factors. GOLDHEDGE is designed as an intention-matching contract, where delivery occurs only when both buyer and seller agree in advance on the quantityIndia. location. With no compulsion to give/take delivery of gold bars, an investor can ignore the landed cost of the precious metal, local taxes, as well as the premium being charged by sellers due to short supply in the domestic market. Instead, he can focus on hedging the most accurate gauge of gold vis-à-vis the international market. Crude oil prices could fall significantly and market imbalance would result on full return of Libyan and Iranian Oil supplies in the world market. In sucCrude Oil prices to Saudi Arabia responds by lowering production would be vital to sustain market imbalance. Abrupt supply disruptions roiled the global oil markets in 2013,fall, market and Iran alone deducting 2.3 million b/d from balances last quarter. Oflate, news out of Iran and Libya has been mildly positive. In Libya, the recent start-up of the 340 thousand barrels per day( b/d) El Sharara field, where protests lasted for 90 days,kely brought output back up to 600 thousand b/d.which is up from 250,000t the end of last year, but remains far below post-civil war highs of 1.4 million b/d. BofAMLurn of foresees that a simultaneous normalization of oil export from Libya and Iran is a real risk for the global oil balance in 2014 and could lead to meaningful downsiLibyan, Iran pressure on fuel prices. In an extreme case, where non-OPEC production strengthens and Libya and Iran partially or completely recover, the global oil supply-demsupplies balance could see a swing of 1.5-3 million b/d, as per the estimates done by the bank.A partial or full return of production from these countries will require a synchronized response from other OPEC members to cut back. . Nickel futures at London Metal Exchange (LME) has climbed to a 11-week high on Indonesian ore export ban while at India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), positive trends are seen in nickel futures which could take prices beyond Rs 920 kg and beyond. LME Nickel at 11- A stronger Chinese economy can positively impact industrial metals demand and prices in 2014. A 1% growth in GDP can result in 15-20% gains in metals prices annually week high, MCX but it is more pronounced in aluminium, iron ore and copper. Copper, nickel and zinc fundamentals as the strongest among industrial metals. At London Metal Exchange, Nickel prices are heading towards $15000 per ton after having reached $14622 levelsld already. The ban on exports of unprocessed ore took effect on January 12 in Indonesia, the world’s biggest producer of mined nickel. China is the top importer oclimb to 920 ore, used in production of nickel-pig iron, a lower-grade alternative to refined metal. International Nickel Study Group (INSG) in its evaluation has stated that 2013 was a strong year for nickel and consumption will go up in 2014.World primary nickells soon. consumption was 1.58 Mt in 2011 which rose to 1.66 Mt in 2012, 1.77 in 2013 and for 2014, it is estimated at 1.85 MT. E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS DATE & TIME Jan 20 All Day Bank Holiday Jan 22 Day 1 ALL WEF Annual Meetings Jan 23 Day 2 ALL WEF Annual Meetings 7:00pm Unemployment Claims 331K 326K 7:30pm Flash Manufacturing PMI 55.2 54.4 7:30pm HPI m/m 0.4% 0.5% 8:30pm Existing Home Sales 4.99M 4.90M 8:30pm CB Leading Index m/m 0.8% 9:00pm Natural Gas Storage -287B 9:30pm Crude Oil Inventories -7.7M Jan 24 Day 3 ALL WEF Annual Meetings Jan 25 Day 4 ALL WEF Annual Meetings G O L D T E C H N I C A L V I E W MCX GOLD last week showed sideways movement and took important resistance of 29315, also closed above to upper band of channel pattern with consolidation phase. Now if it able to maintain above 29350 and if also traded above the upper band of channel pattern then 29600 will act as important resistance. On other hand if it sustains below 29000 then 28650 will act as major support level. PIVOT TABLE S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 above 29350 for the targets of 296028690 28080 27400 29650 30110 30680 30000 with stop loss of 28600. S I L V E R T E C H N I C A L V I E W MCX SILVER last week showed sideways movement, and took bounce back from its important support i.e. 44300 & faced important resistance of 45850. Now, if bullish trend continues and sustain above 45900 then it may find next resistance around 46600. On lower side 44000 will act as support for it below which it may drag towards important support of 42500. PIVOT TABLE S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this point of time is to buy above 46000 for S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 targets of 46600-47200, with stop los44000 43000 42000 45850 46700 47600 44500. C R U D E O I L T E C H N I C A L V I E W Crude oil started the week on lower note but found strong support around 5640 and showed strong bounce back towards immediate resistance of 5860 and settled around higher side. Trend still looks weak according to which support lies in the range of 5640-5600. On higher side positive momentum may be seen if it gives any closing above the resistance of 5900. S T R A T E G Y PIVOT TABLE Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell on highs for the target of 5500, withS1top S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 loss of 6000. 5685 5490 5300 5920 6150 6350 C O P P E R T E C H N I C A L V I E W MCX Copper lastweek showed sideways movement and consolidated around 38.2% retracement and closed above it. Now, if it is able to sustain below 451 then bearishness may drag it towards the support level of 445. On other hand if it maintains above the 23.6% retracement i.e. 464 then bullishness will be expected. PIVOT TABLE S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell below 451, with stop loss of 464 for the S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 targets of 445-440. 451.80 445.85 441 462.20 469 474.50 DISCLAIMER WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM
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