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by: Debra Tee

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3

STATS 250, Week 1 Notes - Lecture 1 STATS 250

Marketplace > University of Michigan > Statistics > STATS 250 > STATS 250 Week 1 Notes Lecture 1
Debra Tee
UM
GPA 3.85

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About this Document

Basic Principles and Course Goals
COURSE
Introduction to Statistics
PROF.
Brenda Gunderson
TYPE
Class Notes
PAGES
3
WORDS
KARMA
25 ?

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This 3 page Class Notes was uploaded by Debra Tee on Friday April 8, 2016. The Class Notes belongs to STATS 250 at University of Michigan taught by Brenda Gunderson in Fall 2016. Since its upload, it has received 8 views. For similar materials see Introduction to Statistics in Statistics at University of Michigan.

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Date Created: 04/08/16
Lecture  1:  Statistics  Info  and  some  Basic  Principles       -­‐    Statistics  is  the  most  important  science  in  the  whole  world:  for  upon  it   depends  the  practical  application  of  every  other  science  and  of  every  art:   the  one  science  essential  to  all  political  and  social  administration,  all   education,  all  organization  based  on  experience,  for  it  only  gives  results  of   our  experience."  Florence  Nightingale,  Statistician     -­‐   Statistics  are  numbers  measured  for  some  purpose.     -­‐   Statistics  is  a  collection  of  procedures  and  principles  for  gathering  data  and   analyzing  information  in  order  to  help  people  make  decisions  when  faced   with  uncertainty.       -­‐   Course  Goal:  Learn  various  tools  for  using  data  to  gain  understanding  and   make  sound  decisions  about  the  world  around  us.       -­‐   Chapter  1  starts  out  with  eight  statistical  stories  with  morals,  presented  as   seven  case  studies.       -­‐   In  each,  data  are  used  to  make  a  decision,  a  judgment,  about  a  situation.   These  case  studies  follow  a  wide  range  of  ideas  and  methods  and  introduce   a  lot  of  statistical  language.       -­‐   1.  Who  are  those  speedy  drivers?   Principle:  Simple  summaries  of  data  can  tell  an  interesting  story  and  are   easier  to  digest  than  long  lists.     2.  Safety  in  the  Skies?     Principle:  When  discussing  the  change  in  the  rate  or  risk  of  occurrence  of   something,  make  sure  you  always  include  baseline  or  base  rates.     3.  Did  anyone  ask  whom  you’ve  been  dating?   Principle:  A  representative  sample  of  only  a  few  thousand,  or  perhaps  even   a  few  hundred,  can  give  reasonably  accurate  information  about  a   population  of  many  millions.     4.  Who  are  those  angry  women?   Principle:  An  unrepresentative  sample,  even  a  large  one,  tells  you  almost   nothing  about  the  population.     5.  Does  prayer  lower  blood  pressure?   Principle:  Cause-­‐and-­‐effect  conclusions  cannot  generally  be  made  on  the   basis  of  an  observational  study.       6.  Does  Aspirins  reduce  heart  attack  rates?   Principle:  Unlike  with  observational  studies,  cause-­‐and  effect  conclusions   can  generally  be  made  on  the  basis  of  randomized  experiments.         7.  Does  the  internet  increase  loneliness  and  depression?     Principle:  A  statistically  significant  finding  does  not  necessarily  have   practical  significance  or  importance.  When  a  study  reports  a  statistically   significant  finding,  find  out  the  magnitude  of  the  relationship  or  difference.     8.  Did  your  mother’s  breakfast  determine  your  sex?     Principle:  For  studies  that  found  a  relationship  or  difference,  find  out  how   many  different  things  were  tested.  The  more  tests  done,  the  more  likely  a   statistically  significant  difference  is  a  false  positive  that  can  be  explained  by   chance.  Watch  out  if  many  things  are  tested  and  only  1-­‐2  of  them  are   statistically  significant.

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