Class Note for ECOL 406R with Professor Bonine at UA 2
Class Note for ECOL 406R with Professor Bonine at UA 2
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Date Created: 02/06/15
Lecture 17 18 October 2005 Conservatlon Blolo 406R 506R Populations CH7 PVA MVP 1 Populations Ch7 Conservation Biology ECOL 406R506R 2 Thank Kadw Gerst University of Arizona Fall 2005 Kevin Bonine Kathy Gerst LAB Field Trip Friday gt Sunday 2123 October check your email meet 0645am Friday morning 2 mp www fun usgs guvresuumesedumuunblsblsihume asp Smut nations would low mm to my 83 a gallon for gas amingoer mp www fun usgs guvresuumesedumuunblsblsihume asp mp www rm usgs guvresDumaseducauunblsblsihume asp http www fort usgs govresourceseducationbtsbtsihome asp Results at one night39s captures by hand The hand nf an infamt mtli swelling disnulontian andhle39b fcmutinn lmmmwp pm mam me populations are dynamic not static Lemmings g e yew Cause uf eyehe change m pupulatmn not completely understand Cycle length average 3 a years Mass mlgralmn m response to men density with oeereasmg food supply sometimes svwnmmg wowed Population sizes change over time Why What causes change in population size What regulates population size IfWe can answer these questions We might be able to make changes that increase populations of declining endangered species What is population Viability analysis PVA Thanks to Margaret Evans 2003 populations are dynamic not static Whales in the Antarctic 3 I k Ay m Mans AV 1945 6 194950 Many things affect population size competition population wnhm a species stmcmre among species other interactions predation herbivory chance events 4 population pollmauon em demogaphic genetic S 126 habitat attributes EHVHOIHTflerml Variation quanmyv qualmyv succession or con guration and good years bad years connectivity disturbance n l Exponential growth densityindependent deterministic 2w avimmelic In a closed population no immigration 0i emigration population growth is a ninetion of birth and death rates Fopulallnn sue diabew 7 13 iii in 3 ngenzckedphzasmt 3 ineiaieainism 2 Logistic growth densitydependent deterministic m 7 W intxaspeci c competition d t Y T stabilizes pepiilation size nmiees gs mm mm nannies gem Wimimieiangmpiimm see E mu H m i m innitytni ii Allee effect HOW l n i i mi in animals rguup defense against pieaateiis eyeing attaek efpiey emates drf culttu nd emncal numbei tei stimulate bieeaing beliameii in plants rpullmatur limitatiein rselfrmcump abbility einbieeaing deniessien exponential growth an unrealistic model Humans ein planet Earth Altem ative 1y nie pepiilation growth iate may ineiease with pepiilation size positive densitydependence Allee effect minimum viable population size Allee effect H 0W gmiip defense against pieaateiis mquot niiiia mm i The two categories ofmodels we have considered thus far assurne that all individuals in apopulation have the same hinh and death rates nu genetae develuprnental urphyslulugcal differenees amung individuals under sums eireurnstanees this might eause us tn inaeeurately prediet pustulaan size mu 5 suruivnl data In redeeeekadad wnnanasxeis in di uml reproductive sugu min warms 1550 r t m and of s thalnumhav M havemnn Jugs aimquotm aria Alive iwvms Melvi nuing fill 14 ll u strum mile m 5U 52 weer hthmst 27 M int Merlin mils w 2m w n 7 rlutlm 9 u iit U a Life Tables 3 Densityindependent deterministic structured population growth What else ean structured population models tell us39 Sens39 39 39tx The senslhmty nuts eaeh matrix element desenhes huw rnueh 7twlll he affected by achange in that transian prubahlllty Would ithe better to focus eonservation efforts on improving the survival ofhatchlings orlarge juveniles or adults Larnhda population growth rate 23 3 Structured population models densityindependent deterministic This is the type ofmodel most otten used in population viability analysis What is meant by structure Apupulauun is unstructuredlfall individuals have the same rates ufsurvlval and femllty Apupulauun is Strucmredlfdlfferences arnungindividualsin age develuprnental mge ur size eause therntu have different survival ur femllty rates shun ummtttatttntt Whenlambda is greater than 1 the population increases in size When lambda is less than 1 the population decreases in size 3 Densityindependent deterministic structured population growth Van Dyke p 178 Four Horsemen of the Extinction Apocalypsequot What else can structured population models tell us 1 Genetic Stochastlclty Elasticity 2 Environmental Stochasticity Elasticities quantify the proportional change e g 1 in the asymptotic growth rate that can be expected given a 3 Demographic Stochasticity particular change 1 in each life history transition 4 Natural Catastrophes Panther Article on PVAs over time E Aululinn ul I39upuluiiun whim swumeulx my llu rlnmt l uullmr VORTEgtlt lulliptnpcrliu ppmm data It i I it 7 r mm popuation size it w y Iv u mm x I n source and sink inbreeding problems in FupLLlanunViabilityAnalysis me Bassinger andDaleR captve breeding McCullough eds Umv quhiczgu introgression Press Chicago xvi 577pps scale HABITAT LOSS data time scale will Ht IHlilt ml tutu r Mlll I numb Hi Wit H ism Hu Wm Last thoughts on PVA PVA requires lots of data which takes time work and money whereas managers want answers predictions about extinction now Few species will get thorough PVA When should PVA be used and what type of PVA how complex Predictions from PVA can only be as good as the data that go into the analysis We can only have degrees of con dence in the predictions from PVA Populations should not be managed to their minimum viable population size One ofthe greatest strengths of PVA is the ability to play what itquot games with the model That is what if management were to increase patch sizes or connectivity What if adult survival were improved