Class Note for NATS 101 at UA
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Date Created: 02/06/15
GLOBAL WARMING PART II FORCINGS OF CLIMATE CHANGE LINKED TO HUMAN ACTIVITY Class Notes p 113 002 CONCENTRATION 600 in the E quotbusinessquot ATMOSPHERE as quotwequot Atmospheric 002 concentration Climate Change Goes to Court ScieneeNOW Daily News 31 August 2006 The US Environmental Protection Agency EPA should limit greenhouse gases emitted from cars a coalition of 1 2 states a number of cities and several nonprofit organizations said today in lings for a landmark Supreme Court case on climate change The case Massachusetts v EPA is expected to be heard later this year or early 2007 httpzllseleneenowsoieneemagmileuntentlful120061831i l The Clean Air Act requires EPA to set emission standards for substances that could quotreasonably be anticipated to endanger public health or welfarequot It does so for the components of smog but not for 002 and other greenhouse gases Led by the state of Massachusetts the petitioners cite scienti c studies linking these emissions to wideranging impacts including droughts and flooding along the US coasts Those effects on climate they argue should impel the agency to regulate greenhouse emissions quotThe federal government is shirking its responsibility to enforce the lawquot said Massachusetts Attorney General Tom Reilly in a conference call with reporters today And the science of climate impacts say a group of climate researchers in a friendofthecourt brief are quotclearly suf cient to support a nding of 39reasonable anticipation39 quot of the risks of greenhouse gases EPA which prevailed last year in a federal appeals court says the health impacts of climate change are uncertain and that it39s dif cult to separate the effects of human activity from natural cycles Those uncertainties compounded by the need to abide by US obligations under several international agreements explain why EPA has avoided tackling greenhouse gases it says The agency39s arguments must be filed by 5 October The states39 arguments are quotcogentquot as they directly address what standards the agency should use in deciding whatto regulate says David Hodas a professor at Widener University School of Law in Wilmington Delaware But he says quotit s hard to predictquot what the court will do In 2000 for example the nine justices surprised experts by stopping the Food and Drug Administration from regulating nicotine in tobacco See also mdlwwwlagarizonaadulnewslartieleslsugremecouthtml CO ppm 360 340 220 r 300 280 268 Indicators of the human in uence on the atmosphere during the Industrial Era CARBON DIOXI Carbon dioxide Moti v vmmt Radiative forcing Wm 2 Year Indicators of the human influence on the atmosphere during the Industrial Era METHANE I r quotquot1 a 39 l 1750 Methane J 05 Radiative forcing Wm 2 WUUU IZ UU IQUU IDUU I OUU LUUU Year during the Industrial Era NITROUS OXIDE Indicators of the human influence on the atmosphere N20 P39ij I 1 I I 39 39 1 39 W 310 Nitrous oxide d 03915 010 g 290 E 5quot 005 i may g quoti i ill II I i II I 00 g 39 250 l 1 1 I 1 Iquot F g 1000 1200 1400 1000 1800 2000 E Year Earlier we de ned a FORCING as FORCING a persistent disturbance of a system longer term disturbance than a perturbation A forcing can be Quantified as an INDEX of the importance of some factor 39 GIIG concentration as a potential climate change mechanism eg anthropogenic 002 contributes ndegrees to global temperature warming Bottom Of P 75 Now we will focus on RADIATIVE FORCING linked to Radiation Balance expressed in Watts per square meter Wm2 def a measure of the in uence a factor has in altering the balance of incoming amp outgoing energy in the Earthatmosphere system Take notes then read through top of p 1 1 3 Radiative fuming Watts per square metre Warming Cabling The global mean radiative forcing of the climate system for the year 2011 relative to 1750 3 i it Halocarbens 2 39 20 Aernsols r L 39 EH4 F Elan 1 car rm ram 1 002 fessil r Troposphene mg Mlnererl AVIatrur rInciuced Eng burning Duel 3k Selar J I V Canir ails GIEUS D y i 451 i T l a Simiaspheric grganic V Lu d F fan 1 sulpiiara 613quot mi Aeriosol use fossil indi rect alias e TUE re ect my burning g High Medium Medium Low 1Ir39rary Very Very Very Very Very Very Very Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Lew Level oi cieqliiic Underslarldirrg 7 7 i 39 Q33 39r i ri K9 The gure shows that the forcing meehamism that is f a a by seientiste is aieo the One that leads to the 39 int mp L f 39C 1 y 1 iLTRUE 2 2r FALSE a Li W YELLOW E Radiative lorcing Watts per square metre The global mean radiative forcing of the climate system for the year 2000 relative to 1750 Gorrect answer 3 Halocarbons o 2 N20 Aerosols 80A CH4 Biaclg 1 career a Troposphenc U9 Mineral Aviationinduced 3 ozone bummg Dust L Seiar i t r IJ Contrails cirrus m 0 1m V r 1 I7 4 1 J I n g I I H 139 39 l i W Stratospheric Li Organic 8 ozone Garbo Biomass LSSIE 1mm g 1 Sulphate fossil burning saggy Emma fu l eilect on burning a High Medium Medium Low Very Very Very Very Very Very Very Very quot quot Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Low 1 TRUE 2 FALSE Level of Scientific Understanding Radiative forcing Watts per square metre we 7 F a 3 S Em Relative met radiative tomtn tn the 1 rx 5amp3 year 2000 when compared to the Wm m year t 750 contributed by dt eremt J gases in the atmosphere g9 gm 3 5 3 e r 0 Up KNK E gt the meremg F 1 M M w m W m 7 lt1 r n 39 r1 r39 quot a f v l rVm i DJ J momma the between vat Mme ULL r yam we 11 V11 M ow 0w 2 2quot meme the em EMU erL IL N10 Q quot9 U Ueti le L102 1 Trupusphenie 1 zona PW A L av I T I Warming v I I I I v r r x v r x Simiasphelm39c eJ15L m 1 g a r r wa me E ozone tr 1d Lemme IN MtgE 5 quot VKLA I V I 1 39 0quot E 39I39c AH mm 3quot w W E 1 t 9Utt7 tme m m a meme mm M We we AL I m t U531 1 39 39 11 d whgxwg39 13 S 4 P 7 ten mgmwtee 3 tquot WHILE High Medium Medium Ll Level ofScrienli c Understandin dw ALL of the forcing mechanisms shown here W X3 Y amp Z are linked to antlhmpagenic actiwity in some way The global mean radiative forcing of the climate system for me 1 year 2000 relative in i 750 39 lt 3 3 if 7 w 2 40 g l i Halncasrbons 37 2 N20 E CH4 90 3 E g 39E 002 g a 1 quot Tmpospheric a a 020m at 39 T 939 l t w as o 5 ca Stratospheric Landvuse E ozone albedo 5 g 1 A x my E Z 9 395 2 Low Level oi Scienti c Understanding The giire shows hai forcing mechanism 2 Landguse as in 9 iin quotii i quot O 3 f K V rk a ifz ii in 39 cao ng 7 57W ii a iquot is 7 9 J U J absorbed TRUE or FALSE dicatedi by albedo ieads to i E xix Er q quot V i 393 ha gm llmil LR i x E E The global mean radiative forcing Radiative forcing Watts per square metre of the nlrimrate system for the year 2000 relative to 39i 50 3 w i ilaiocaibans 2 N20 CH4 g 002 a 1 Tropuspheric g azone 0 V oniy Z Level of Scienti c Understanding 0 0 1 TRUE 2 FALSE albedo High Medium Medium Veryw Law Me to the figure which forcing mmhansm has a GREATER in uenee on giobai temperature 1 1 The global mean radiative forcing oftha climate system fur the year 9000 relative t01750 i w i w 3 w 2 39i39 i 1L Haiocamons 172 2 N20 OH E 4 is ig 1 002 i3 Ts Tropusphenc L g ozone i3 i in 1 1 U E icn Stratospheric Landuse WE ozone albedo 3 E only 2 4 x 13 0 Z LE 3 in 2 High Medi m Medan Very Law Level 01 Scientific Uli ndierstan din gi m i 39C i K9 GLOBAL WARMING PART III Model Results amp Projections Fingerprints amp Harbingers See p 114 in Class Notes amp take additional notes Primary Grid 1 Medium Resolution 410 X 500 Degrees do 150 150 140 130 100 BE Path in Equilibrium Dnublcd C02 with Him predicted nccan middling 3154M9BITBAM 9 in I l H Change in surface air tern erature over land 40 A v 35 3 Change in global surface air 4 temperature change In glnhal anrhce a11 tcmpcratnrc C change In mr am a temperature nrcr land C change In ncean lce mu 395 nl earth39s area 2 x 002 MODEL RESULTS ee M Change in ocean ice cover an 35 45 55 year nl39 an erlnicnt rnn 5 T t f db GHG Results of empera ure orce y S severam to the year 3000 di ei ent GGM modeis Temperature change C r0 1 9 2 bbg 90 9 99 3 6 3 Precipitation change forced by GHG s to f Precipitation change I Points on which essentially all GOMs agree The greatest WARMING should occur in HIGH LATITUDES during autumn and winter warming leads to later sea ice and earlier snowmelt gt lower albedo gt more warmin positive feedback also The summertime warming over sea ice in the Arctic and around Antarctica should be smaller than global average warming Warming in the TROPICS should be SMALLER than the global average warming and VARY LITTLE with season quot PRECIPITATION should increase warmer temperatures gt more evaporation gt more water vapor in atmosphere gt more precipitation p114 NET HALL OF PLANET WATTSMEj MJN mean control I DDE ramg s reds MORE after 2 x 802 about lm after 2 3 C02 same E W LESS mm cm L SURFACE TEMPERATURE DEGREES C ENN mean control PEDE 2 x CO2 MODEL RESULTS Oranges amp reds MORE after 2 x CO2 White about the same after 2 x CO2 T LESS after72 x 002 SURFACE TEMPERATURE DEGREES C DJF mean control vma Oranges amp reds MORE after 2 x 002 White about the same after 2 x 002 E Uwae NH WINTER DecJanFeb Surface Temp 2 x 002 MODEL RESULTS LESS after 2 x 002 SURFACE TEMPERATURE DEGREES C JJA mean mum f NH SUMMER JunJuAug Surface Temp a 2x002 MODEL RESULTS 7 I 7 Oranges amp reds MORE after 2 x 002 White about the same after 2 x 002 E Uwae LESS after 2 x 002 PMNETAR Y ALEEDCI 3i ANN mean control 1 1202 Annma P anetary Abeda mamas reds MORE a er 2 x 802 2 about the gamma after 2 3 CO2 M LESS 2 x 002 EVAPORATION MMIDAY ANN mean control I CDE 33922 n u a I Evaporation Oranges amp reds MORE after 2 x 002 White about the same after 2 x 002 E Uwee LESS after 2 x 002 PRECIPITATIDN MMIDAY ANN mean cuminI 11303 322 lt Ammua 91H ramggg reds MORE after 2 5 egg i i v i 1f1iiis 2 abmm m8 same after 2 x 2 E W Some exgeoted conseguences and gossibe concerns based on the model results Sea level will continue to rise throughout the 21st century LINK TO WEISS amp OVERPECK slTE Higher atmospheric 002 concentrations are expected to cause increased rates of plant growth In some types of plants 03 but not others C4 Changes in species composition In forests animal and insect migrations some diseases of the tropics may become problems at midlatitudes p114 CLASS ENDED HERE A bit early To be continued next week
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