Class Note for ECOL 596J at UA
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Date Created: 02/06/15
Amazon ecohydrology climaTe amp biogeochemisTry WhaT is The fuTure of The foresT under climaTe change S Saleska Ecol 596L SepT 5 2008 1 Amazon For esTs in The conTeXT of climaTe change 2 The Hadley model pr edicTion of For esT dieback under climaTe change 3 TesTs Obser vaTions of responses a To r ealwor ld dr oughT shor TTer m b To experimenTallyinduced dr oughT longerTerm Amazon foresTs Mean annual precipiTaTion regime o mllllon km largesT exTanT Troplcal foresT m The world 39120 t 30 Pg C m blomass 15 years of fossll fuel emlsslons 1mm foresTs reporTedly a slnk of 0 6 Pg 5 yrquot Phllllps eT al1998 but see Clark 2002 vs Phllllps er al 2002 Chambers er al 2002 Saleska er al 2003 IForesTmeTabollsm prowdes Transplra on serwces 9 2550 of preclp lS recycled Through foresT Transplra on slgm canT coolng from foresT laTenT heaT fluxes mm momhquot 300 275 250 225 200 75 50 125 mm 75 Source TRMM salelllle observalmns199Er2006 Amazon ecohydrology climaTe amp biogeochemisTry WhaT is The fuTure of The foresT under climaTe change S Saleska Ecol 596L SepT 5 2008 1 Amazon For esTs in The conTeXT of climaTe change 2 The Hadley model pr edicTion of For esT dieback under climaTe change 3 TesTs Obser vaTions of responses a To r ealwor ld dr oughT shor TTer m b To experimenTallyinduced dr oughT longerTerm Amazon foresTs Mean annual precipiTaTion regime o mllllon km largesT exTanT Troplcal foresT m The world 39120 t 30 Pg C m blomass 15 years of fossll fuel emlsslons 1mm foresTs reporTedly a slnk of 0 6 Pg 5 yrquot Phllllps eT al1998 but see Clark 2002 vs Phllllps er al 2002 Chambers er al 2002 Saleska er al 2003 IForesTmeTabollsm prowdes Transplra on serwces 9 2550 of preclp lS recycled Through foresT Transplra on slgm canT coolng from foresT laTenT heaT fluxes mm momhquot 300 275 250 225 200 75 50 125 mm 75 Source TRMM salelllle observalmns199Er2006 WhoT will climoTe chonqe do To pr ecipiToTion globally in The Tropics in The Amazon Climate Chem effect on elobal ag ProjecTed 23model Mean Annual Precigifa om RobusT 2099 mi High laTiTude amp Tropical weTTing iiI Wm 0504030201 0 01 02 05 04 05 passbedr ying of Amozanio scenario A13 robusfdr39ying of The subTr opics 20 35NampS IPCC 2007 Note Stippling iswhere model predictions are consistent the multimodel average change exceeds the stande deviation among models hburnwmhttheiszes Wacunbans mk I5 6t Cyr in 905 change over the next century Coupled carbon cyclegeneral circulaTion model simulaTions Hadley Ctr Cox et al 2000 versus IPSL Dufresne Friedlings rein er al 01 Predictions for 2100 12 39 Residual emissions 1o FosFuel ocean sink Terres rrial A rm Surface 8 Aleoff of Hadley Fux CO2 Warming 6 mazon Center ppm C 980 52 770 3 Emissions 61 C yr391 r 2 V W IPSL M 4 Terresfrlal sink 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 85 6139 difference huge s Key fac rors drivinq model differences The impor l39ance of C02 Fer l39iliza l39ion in s rimula ring carbon up l39ake Drough induced Dieoff of Amazon rainfores r 9 savanna What is the future of Amazon forests under climate change Poresr or Savanna Two gifts to quotsavanmra onquot at the Ame1 forest Will NOT Talk more abou r This for now franspirafion 2 Clima rechange drough r and warming makes The fores r biome biologically infeasible Ecoghzsioogica eea backs in Hadex Mode Amazon Hydrolome reorology I I Evapo 39T39iansp39m hon 25 To 50 of The rain Tha r falls in The Amazon Basin 7gtlt106 kmz or 23 m comes from wafer recycled by The Trees via evapo rranspira rion Sala ri amp Vose 1984 Elfuhir amp Bras 1994 Betts et al 2004 quotThe role of ecosystematmosphere interactions in simulated Amazonian precipitation decrease and forest dieback under global climate warmingquot Trigger onsetof semirpermanent ENSO drought no biology Key meonanism amplification of drought by forest physiological response to initiai oiying m of biologyi Mm lnitial Drought iianspiiaiion reduces prEEip reduces ET Dmugmrmduced TVEE ueain Hadley model predictions Changesiquot Changes in 7 precip broudleuf treecover39 V Mg By2050 By2050 g ByZUEU 3mmdnylwss rwlnhwin pieimanni 5mm A mmday Hadley model predictions By 2100 m Amazunm Changes in r 39 earuadieemeeeuverhesbeen rmudleuf W reduced frum gt801 in 10 reecover 84 my ufcunverled area is savanna grassland 7 same areaswnere even grasses cannul survive became deserl Cunlribulmg faclurs in extreme Amazon drought m We Hadley mudelwurld e Ecupnysiulugical feedbacks e Changes m vegelaliun changes m land surface biugeupnysical feedbacks e Cerbuneeyeie feedbacks M MW 39 ee m A m 1 m a Positive Feedbacks Enhance drying in Hadley model 2 5m 2m h mi 1 lanlpnysiulugicalfeedback 9 FY searbuneeyeie ljcoz TWUE less ET d quotquotquot t quot f9 WP feedback ee 9 my I 4 n u mmany Dmerminedhydiffermoe hmwaen madel rum RAWM 7 RA b bynVeg e FixVeg CCycle e bynVeg 5m n m m4 x e M pmwmm gyms mm mm minim Via Almax wric coz pram m Almaxpneric coz pram ihed PosiTive Feedbacks Enhance drying in Hadley model Summary of feedbacks we has radiative ClimaTe change effecT on forcing effects Amazon precip relaTive To efelztsquotndlllls Pre39mdUSlr39al Feedback magniTude RAD 15 mmday 602 affecTs Physiology 25 Plum p FixedVeg 19 13333512 gt DynamicVeg 24 inTeracTive gt CCycle 30 aTmospheric COZ Biogeophysical 25 CarbonOcle 25 NeT 100 Twice The reducTion Amaz6nia 2050 For39esT or39 Savanna Can we TesT The pr edicTion Trigger onset of semipermanent ENSO drought no biology Key mechanism amplification of drought by forest physiological response to initial drying lots of biology E Initial Drought yapo transpiration g reduces precip Ram Q reduces ET lt3 Droughtinduced Tree death 1 Prediction about today s Amazon forest under current climate evapotranspiration and Wholesystem photosynthesis should be reduced during dry periods dm seasons and interannual droughts Tesf Response fa in ferannua droughf MarielPredicted Response Empirical Test the 2005 drought Hadley modeled GPP d precip in ceni ral Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission TRMM Amazonia in years relafive To El Nino droughf satellite precip anomalies in 3rd quarfer 2005 o a El Nino brought to o Jones et al 2001 Fora Photosynohsis M c be yr 8 Years 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 Me rhods TRMM sa relli re for Rainfall measuremen rs TRMM Tropical Rainfall measuring Missmn Blended precipifa l39ion product 3B43v6 combines microwave data from TRMM Infrared from GOES Calibra red To da ra from global network of gauges MennodsMODISsaneHineinsnnanennneasanes canopy gneennessquot MODSVodenaneResolutionlnaging Spennonadionenen MODISdenined Enhanced Ve enanion Index EVI focuses on specnnal bands nelaned no plan phonosnnnheniooapaoinn Does non sanonane ninh high Lean Area Index LAI asdoes NDVI Highninenesolonion16day allonsdeneonionon seasonal pannenns MennodsMODISsaneHineinsnnnnennneasnnes canopy gneennessquot REFLECTANCE n o O pans prod an NDVI sanunanes oven dense highMI negenanion eg Anazon non W cknorENom AND CH LOROPHYLL ABSORPTION ABSORPTION n l FOUAR REFLECTANCE CHLOHC FHYLL l n i 39 REDUCED CHLOHOFHYLL ABSORPTION nance 1 nan Wequot Wan Redooedsensinininnnoned Gem 1 I 15 m renannnenoNIRannnnggneanen pro pone abnlnnnodeneonnnoneasesnn 4 U1 I sol connecnion Empirical fesf 72 2005 Amazon droughf Satellite TRMMderived precip anomalies in Amazonia for 2005 as in Aragao et al 2007 relative to mean of 19982005 JanFebMar AprMayJune JulAugSept 39 A Evl Standard dev s rl rl rl l l l relative to mean of 20002006 u my f l Hf Only fesf so far 72 2005 Amazon droughf precipitation anomaly vegetation greenness anomaly 3 39 Plump Sundamaevs U 4 EVlSmndmdnevs quota vial1quotu 4cm quot0 number ofstandard deviations in 2005 from the longterm mean for the JulyAungept JAS quarter le for each pixel Anomalymusm a a l tauw 5w Am 1 0345 5mm dev anon Shor r Term drough r con rrar y To model predic rions does no r cause pho iosyn rhe ric slow down Saleska et al 2007 Simua ons39 V5 Observa ons39 Hadley model simulafed GPP amp precip in central Amazonia in years rela rive To El Nino drough r Look 0139 strong responderquot pixels E 2005 Greenness anomaly E n n M for JulAugSep JAS 3 0 VWV V EVSandarddev39s39 gt 3 E 1 g g 150 E Z 39 50 a 9 2 E 50 g 9 450E n Years 3 2 Simua ons39 V5 Observa ons39 SafelliTe observed greenness amp precip quar rerly anomaly Timeser ies of sfr ong responderquot pixels Hadley model simulafed GPP amp precip in central Amazonia in years rela rive To El Nino drough r 3739 A E4 5 gt 2 n M AILWW 2 a 0 vw vv g0 E m gt quot 32 39 21 E g o n g 150 6 f g 50 0 o2 g 4 c 50 2 150 393 y LL 2000 01 02 03 04 Years 3 2 Preci p anom aly S D s nainiau mm 3000 TEST 2 Experimental Test of the effects of increased drought on Amazon rainforest 2500 Wet plot I Dry Dlul 57 7 39 f Vii21 4 AV 1 lltf 71 1amp7 2 r w m w an Jul Jan 2000 1000 500 T 0 1 999 2000 200 1 2002 2003 U ClSol AEWcVE Hm I K V w Iquot I g 00 9 m7 A B h 2 0967 5 w 3 y E E 092 a 20 v 9 m 035 n r g r i c 5 mm 59 034 k we 39 392 o E I 39 r 39 I a one 5 in v g 2 E w quot 0 076 S m 5 1999 gt 1lLlll ll m M am 2003 200 8 8 Nepstad et al 2007 MECHANISM 5 for Greenup Response 1390 Amazon Droug n a Fewer clouds during drought 9 more sunlight b Evergreen Amazon forests are biologically adapted to the Amazon climate eg much deeper roots than elswhere dry seasons and regular El Nino droughts c Consistent with Dryseason leaf flush inferred in central Amazon 2Tapajos forest eddy sites K67 site K83 site 10 Leaf flush 4 DW gt season 0 J FMAMJJASOND J FMAMJ JASOND Leafflush empirical model based on towermeasured photosynthetic capacity and litterfall RestrepoCoupe et al in prep MECHANISMS for Greenup Response 7 0 Amazon Draught a Fewer clouds during drought 9 more sunlight b Evergreen Amazon forests are biologically adapted to the Amazon climate dry seasons and regular El Nino droughts c Consistent with Dry season leaf flush interred in central Amazon Tapajos forest eddy site Drought experiment in central Amazon Tapajos Forest drydown experiment Nepstad et al 2007 Bad news Overlap between deforestation fire and climate change could make things worse Intact forests are resistant to fire closed canopies keep understory litter moist even in dry season Deforestation anthropogenic burns Si logging thin canopy cover gt allowing forests to dry 20000 to 50000 km2 of dry fire prone forest edge created annually drought whether induced by deforestation or climate change exacerbates fire risk miH hi smuonvu lll Higher light levels and drier conditions promote invasion of fire prone grassherb vegetation systems Nepstad 9 al 2008 Question Is there a tipping pointquot in the Amazon Bad news Overlap between deforestation and climate change Deforestation to 2050 brown A Business as Usual 5 Increased governance 39 quot9quot probabili y 1 an Underlying map probability of substantial drought gt20 o reduction in dryseason rainfall probability39 proportion of 23 ECMs that showed rainfall decline 20802099 vs 19801999 for IPCC AR4 midrange emissions scenarioAlB Malhl et al 2008 SWIHQZ Amazon vegetation may be more resilient than ecosystem models predict at least in the short term seasonal variation and short droughts Forests have Adapted to dry seasons and short interannual drought but biological adaptation is not represented in most ecosystem models Caveats fire and longterm drought are serious threats to the future of the Amazon Outstanding Question what does it take to quotbreakquot an Amazon forest Can climate change do it What about the next big ENSO One answer Amazon Drydown experiment Nepstad et al 2007 takes 3 years to get largetree mortality n m mm Minn Jun km Du Minn 1m 51p Du mnz 2m Vu umem sum mmsmre m1 m 1ns hrs Evevgveen invest asmbmdamnmga invest amumeDegyauea invest avannsGvass andwe and I Walequot mm Tvopiml was CarrMural Emma E Sowna Dry Forest German 0 any 4 Flux rmrsn Predmlalkm seamen Trauma Tapajos Cuiaba Transecl Shifting data 1390 080 star1wf dry mm quotmm 070 season SOD 060 050 quot gt J 040 030 39 0 7quot Cutraga Sm r olllbgsawovI h gt mm 010 ihv i aa r iia 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 Ratana P 16day composite Interval TpGUi HueteY et al 025 g 015 31 3 mg a 005 l i g m 3 u E a ms quotWM 1 1 m 1 n m 0 9as quot 93 s0sg 2yj s e j w Tapajos Cuiaba Transecl duh 10 080 start of dry quot0 quotWequot 070 season 50D 060 050 gt L 040 030 0 20 sun of Dwsaalon o 10 gt rm 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 Ratana P 16day composite Interval TipGuri HueteY et al 25 39 39 015 il E Currg E 2 39 Human ms mum 1 mm I WW 5 r areas vmi0amp9g wwmsxys 0035ngany amp 3 VN39539quotP 339 39
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