Class Note for INDV 102 with Professor Kenworthy at UA
Class Note for INDV 102 with Professor Kenworthy at UA
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Date Created: 02/06/15
When should we intervene Outline How to decide 1 Is there a compelling rationale for military intervention 2 Is external authorization needed 3 Can intervention solve the immediate problem 4 Is the likely cost to our citizens bearable 5 Is the medium and longrun impact likely to be positive The future of humanitarian intervention How to decide 1 Is there a compelling rationale Because there is no supranational democraticallyelected government the default principle is national sovereigntyself determination But the sovereignty principle isn39t and shouldn39t be absolute 1 Is there a compelling rationale National interest Preemptive selfdefense Humanitarian genocide or some other significant violation of human rights Democracy Reactive reverse overthrow of democratic governments Proactive remove authoritarian governments 1 Is there a compelling rationale From 1945 to 1990 Cold War considerations dominated US decisions about intervention covert operations and foreign aid The guiding question What will be the impact on the USSR39s strength and reach and therefore on its ability to harm us The only exception was Jimmy Carter39s attempt to make human rights a key consideration 1 Is there a compelling rationale Key Cold War events Soviet expansion into Eastern Europe 1945 Truman Doctrine 1947 the United States will quotsupport free peoples who are resisting attempted subjugation by armed minorities or by outside pressuresquot Marshall Plan 1947 USSR39s first test of a nuclear weapon 1949 NATO military alliance founded 1949 Chinese revolution 1949 Korean War 195053 1 Is there a compelling rationale Key Cold War events Iran coup 1953 Guatemala coup 1954 Warsaw Pact military alliance founded 1955 Hungarian revolution crushed by USSR 1956 China declares independence from USSR 1960 Cuba quotBay of Pigsquot operation 1961 Dominican Republic invasion 1965 Vietnam War 196575 Czech quotPrague Springquot crushed by USSR 1968 1 Is there a compelling rationale Key Cold War events Nixon goes to China 1972 Chile coup 1973 Afghanistan and Nicaragua support for resistance fighters earlymid 1980s Grenada invasion 1983 USSR and Soviet bloc dissolve 198991 1 Is there a compelling rationale With the end of the Cold War in 198991 the US and other rich countries began to consider other motivations for intervention Many agree that humanitarian crises Walzer quotThe Politics of Rescuequot and overthrow of democratic governments Collier The Bottom Bilion are compelling reasons More controversial is proactive installation of democracy Bush39s posthoc rationale for the Iraq invasion 2 Is external authorization needed Unilateral pre1990 interventions Iraq 2003 Multinational body United Nations Kuwait 1990 Haiti 1994 Bosnia 1995 A new quotLeague of Democraciesquot Regional alliance such as NATO Kosovo 1999 2 Is external authorization needed Matthew Yglesias Heads in the Sand 2008 argues that strengthening international institutions and rules rather than the merits of any particular intervention should be the dominant consideration This sounds reasonable and he makes a case that much of post WW2 Democratic presidents39 foreign policy pursued this aim 2 Is external authorization needed But there are difficult cases Kosovo 1999 the UN refused to authorize so we acted through NATO Iraq 2003 Suppose the UN had authorized Bush39s request to invade Would it have been the right thing to do Darfur 2004 Because of China39s objection the UN refused to authorize troops on the ground Africa is out of NATO39s orbit Would it have been wrong for the US to go in alone to stop the genocide 3 Can intervention solve the immediate problem Can the quotbad guysquot be defeated Will it result in increased death injury or displacement of the good guys William Easterly military presence makes it easier for the bad guys to obstruct efforts by humanitarian aid providers 4 Is the likely cast to our citizens bearable Dead and wounded soldiers World War 1 World War 2 Korea Vietnam Bosnia and Kosovo Iraq 117000 dead 204000 wounded 405000 dead 671000 wounded 37000 dead 103000 wounded 58000 dead 153000 wounded 32 dead 8 wounded 4000 dead 44000 wounded 4 Is the likely cost to our citizens bearable Money Share of GDP in war39s peak year World War 1 14 World War 2 36 Korea 4 Vietnam 2 Bosnia and Kosovo Iraq 1 600 billion total 4 Is the likely cast to our citizens bearable If things don39t go quickly and smoothly domestic political support can erode TV and the internet have greatly increased citizens39 access to information about the nature and progress of wars A lengthy humanitarian intervention is harder to justify domestically than one based on national interest It helps to spread the personnel and financial burden across a coalition of countries 5 Is the medium and longrun impact likely to be positive Reconstruction difficulties Severe economic disruption Shortage of capable and honest political leaders Destruction of civil society Enhanced influenceintervention by neighboring countries Uncertainty societies are complex systems and it39s problematic to rely on past experience to predict because each case is unique Humanitarian intervention39s future Humanitarian intervention is future Most agree that intervention is morally justified in cases of humanitarian crisis Humanitarian intervention is future Plenty of need for it Iraq occupation of Kuwait 1990 Somalia 1993 Haiti coup 1994 Rwandan genocide 1994 Sierra Leone attempted coup 2000 Darfur Sudan genocide 2003present Myanmar cyclone devastation 2008 Various other less wellknown coups and atrocities in Africa and Asia Humanitarian intervention is future But there is now less support for humanitarian intervention than in the 1990s 911 turned the focus of rich countries toward domestic security and antiterrorism Our quotweapons of mass destructionquot mistake in Iraq has heightened concern about whether the quality of information we typically have is sufficient to justify intervention The economic and political ascendance of China and Russia reduce the likelihood of UN Security Council approval of humanitarian intervention Humanitarian intervention is future But there is now less support for humanitarian intervention than in the 1990s The US action in Iraq has shifted sentiment against unilateral intervention The results of the Iraq invasion have reduced confidence in humanitarian intervention39s potential to improve wellbeing Humanitarian intervention is future An auspicious sign Barack Obama39s choices for key foreign policy positions favor humanitarian intervention Secretary of State Hillary Clinton Ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice
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