Class Note for NATS 104 at UA
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Date Created: 02/06/15
CLIMATE CHANGE Along the Road From Kyoto Global greenhouse gas emissions keep rising 2005 marks a key year ror climate policy around theworld Participants at a UN7sponsored meeting in Nairobi in November will debate what should happen arter the 1997 Kyoto rreaty expires in 2012 Meanwhile the 34 countriesthat have agreed to speciric cuts under the accords are gearing up ror 2008 when the enrorcement clock starts ticrn ng A number or nations have already moved to cut emissions Emissions in Germany ror example are down by nearly a rirth comparedwith 1990 levels At the same time emissions have risen substantially in Canada and Japan despite their promise to achieve a 5 reduction over 1990 levels As a result government orricials in both nations are debating tough measuresto reverse that trend CONTRIBUTING FACTORS IO 02 CHANGE The World Resources Institute has identified four letters that lIlOVE changes tn a country s greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 to 2002 The numbers represent the relative contributions at eatlr iattur and the runtn butions sum to the overall increase or decrease in that country s emissions In the case at China for example 122 of its growth in emissions resulted from a per capita rise in GDP while a shirt in energy intensrty redured emissions grth by 05 Q II GDP per Capita Population Increasing Wealth ends to More people usually boosts mean rising carbon emissions emissions but rt need not Fuel Mix Carbon content of energy source Dal produces many more greenhouse gases than hydmpower per unit at energy reeled Energy Intensity Energy consumed per unit oi GDP intensity declines as a country shifts irom an industrial 0 a service emnomy or uses its re39sourtes m ore eliittenlly C H l N A 49 GDP per aptta 122 H Population 15 Energy intensity 96 Fuel mix 8 ubrrxhed byAAAS in contrast the United States and Australia two major nonratirying nations insist that longrtemr investment in technology and voluntary reductions are a better approach their emissions have grown steadily since 1990 And developing nations not bound by Kyoto targets in particular China and rndia are beginning to emit carbon at absolute rates that match those or more industrialized nations The rollowing graphics depict the state or greenhouse gas emissions ror 10 key countries and where the planetis headed Ell KINTISCH TEXT AND KEllV BUCKHEIT DESIGN GLOBAL EMISSIONS PROIECTIONS 40000 35000 Developed countrres ans ui meirlL tulrs 0 r 1992 2001 2010 2020 2030 Vear Worldwide problem The sharp rise in global emissions is tueled increasingly by the energy demands of the developing world Future levels are based on projections for businessesusual growth soum wonrn nrsouncs rusnrurmuranAerNAt rumor AGENCV r illire B R A Z L 57 GDP percapitaz17 a Population21 Energy intenshy 7 Fuel mix 13 UNITED STATES1eu GDP per capita 23 Population 16 Energyintensilyz Zo Fuel mix 1 R U S S A zm 39 GDP per capita 5 Population 3 H O Q o Enagymnmeu A 9 Fuel mix 3 US 118 china mmquot Russia I i Japan 9 I d 70 391 la 0 TOTAL EMISSIONS G 13 ermany I 1990 levels Ult 5 2002 levels Canada 20 V Kyoto target Brazil 57 Australia 28 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Tom elnlssinn in milllans ul tons m emwalelm Follow the tartan Ihe United States and thine with no uhligatlon to meet Kyula largels have stretched then lead as the world39s biggesl arhen emll ersl Among Kyoto rallliers lised here Russia and Germany have cut tnlal emissions and exteeded Kyoto targeB whereas lapan and Canada face daunting challenges to meek theinargets The percentages in parentheses re ect hanges in emissions lmm 1990 to 2002 soum ELIMNE ANALVSlS munnuns mm mm menace msn39nm UNITED mans AUSTRALIA28 GDP percapiu 31 H Population 16 Energy intensity 19 l Fuel mix 1 J A P A N 9 GDP percapilat12 H Popula on 3 Energy inlensily 0 Fuel mix 7 Published byAAAS CANA DA20 GDP per capita 24 H Population 13 Energyintensilyz ls Fuel mixtl G ERMANY 13 GDP per capila 15 H Popula un 4 Energy intensity 21 Fuel mix 10 N D A 73 GDP per capita 55 Population28 Enevgyintensilyz Bl 1 Fuel mix 19 UNITED KlNGDOMr un GDP per apila 24 H Pupulatinn 3 EnergyintensityZu l Fuel mix 13 1703
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