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GEOG 1300

by: Megan Bartz

GEOG 1300 GEOG 1300

Megan Bartz

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About this Document

jet streams and forecasting methods
Weather and Climate
Class Notes
Science, geography
25 ?




Popular in Weather and Climate

Popular in Geography

This 2 page Class Notes was uploaded by Megan Bartz on Monday February 1, 2016. The Class Notes belongs to GEOG 1300 at East Carolina University taught by WALTER CURTIS in Fall 2016. Since its upload, it has received 60 views. For similar materials see Weather and Climate in Geography at East Carolina University.


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Date Created: 02/01/16
 Jet stream: zone of fast winds in the upper atmosphere  Mid latitude cyclones o Zonal flow: fair weather o Often initiates stormy weather at surface o When the inflow at the surface exceeds outflow aloft then the cyclone dies o High pressure: anticyclone- clockwise o Low pressure: cyclone- counter-clockwise  Jet streaks: pools of faster wind speeds in the jet stream Relationship between jet streams and cyclones  Cyclones and anticyclones move with the jet stream o Understanding the nature of the jet stream can help us better predict the paths of storms  Comma shape o Head of the comma: cyclone o Tail of the comma: cold front Weather forecast methods (Ch. 12)  Persistence forecasts  Trend forecasts  Statistical forecasts  Analog forecasts  Forecasts models  Satellite information Persistence forecasting  Assume that what is happening in the present will continue in the future  Doesn’t account for any variations  Limited length of predictability  Limited accuracy Trend forecasting  Assume that a trend observed at a place will continue in that same direction in the future  Can also assume that what is happening upwind of a location will move to your location  Doesn’t account for any variations  Limited length of predictability  Limited accuracy Analog/statistical forecasting  Uses the past to predict future weather  Looks at spatial patterns that have existed in the past and assumes those patterns will repeat themselves in the future Numerical weather prediction  Computer models o Use physical laws governing atmospheric motion  Try to model upper level flow pattern o Then, infer locations and cyclogenesis  Most accurate forecast method beyond a few hours  Problems: o Rely on accuracy of observational data input into the models o Sensitive dependence on initial conditions  Limits prediction to less than a week o Models are simplifications Phases in numerical modeling:  Analysis phase o Looking at the models to see what’s going to happen  Prediction phase o The forecast that is decided  Post-processing phase What the answer was and determining how close you were


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