CJ 280-002 Notes on Hypothesis, Causation, and Units of Analysis
CJ 280-002 Notes on Hypothesis, Causation, and Units of Analysis CJ 280
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This 2 page Class Notes was uploaded by Jennifer Gintovt on Friday February 5, 2016. The Class Notes belongs to CJ 280 at University of Alabama - Tuscaloosa taught by Matthew Dolliver in Spring 2016. Since its upload, it has received 26 views. For similar materials see Research Methods in Criminal Justice at University of Alabama - Tuscaloosa.
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Date Created: 02/05/16
CJ 280002 2/1/16 Null Hypothesis The status quo is going to win Point of stasis o Starting place o Probability o EX. Women watch more TV than men Null hypothesis would be: there’s no difference between the amount of TV men and women watch When you test this hypothesis and find something different, then you can reject the null hypothesis Research Hypothesis Your statement A statement, not THE statement Directional? o EX. Group X’s average score will be different (or higher/lower) than group Y on test Z Want to make a good hypothesis Be clear o Make a clear stand from abstraction State the expected relationship o “This will effect that” Reflect theory and/or literature o Why do you think that? Test it! Not prove it… To the point o Distraction hurts later interpretation EX. Mr. Jones birth control Testable o Can always go back to the theory later Control Variables Strain them out Ceteris Paribus EX. IQ, age, race, and SES – the crime connection Moderator Variables Impacts the strength of the relationship/effect EX. Stress coping crime Mediator Variables Explains the relationship/effect CJ 280002 2/1/16 Spuriousness The “lurking variable” EX. Ice cream and crime o If ice cream sales (represents hot temperature) increase, then crime increases (due to the fact that there is higher levels of interaction between victims and offenders) Putting the cause in because Causation prediction and retrodiction o Hume (1700s) Treatise on Human Understanding Causation doesn’t exist just see one thing after another 3 parts Must be correlated, or vary together (when we see one thing change, we see another thing change) o Complexity means looking at aggregates and patterns Time order o Post Hoc No outside factors o Makes causation hard Necessary and Sufficient conditions o Necessary –must be present o Sufficient – numerous ways to do something Constraints on data, what can we know… Units of analysis o Nominal (“name”) grouped by quality Breaking things into groups by NAME ONLY EX. Political parties divided within a room o Ordinal (“order”) – group + order EX. Tall people ordered separate from short people o Interval (“spaces between walls”) – difference is obvious EX. Grade on an exam (units) 70% v. 80% o Ratio (“calculation”) just add zero gives true starting point Might not demonstrate any of the behaviors For example, if measuring height, no one will be 0 height