Week 5 Notes
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This 13 page Class Notes was uploaded by Melissa on Sunday February 7, 2016. The Class Notes belongs to PSY 330 at University of Oregon taught by Ted Bell in Fall 2015. Since its upload, it has received 14 views. For similar materials see Psy 330 thinking in Psychlogy at University of Oregon.
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Date Created: 02/07/16
● The Anatomy of an Argument ○ consists of one or more statements that are used to come to a conclusion ■ support comes from the reasons(premises) ○ “the giving of reasons” ○ the act of reasoning ■ Old view/belief → new view or belief ○ If you cannot identify at least one premise and at least one conclusion, it cannot be considered an argument ○ Premises ■ the reasons ■ Premise indicators: because, for ,since, if ■ can be facts or they can be personal beliefs or opinions ○ Conclusions ■ have conclusion indicators as well ■ Natural Language: the language that has evolved over time to better enhance communication ■ Artificial Language: computer languages ○ Arguments usually consists of assumptions, qualifiers, and counterargume ts ■ Assumptions ● no proof or evidence when stated ■ Qualifiers ● constraint or restriction to the conclusion ■ Counterarguments ○ Arguments should be able to be taken apart and put back together with relatively easy understanding ○ Convergent structure: where the two premises come together to form one conclusion ● The importance of Having an Open mind ○ If we constantly rely on our confirmation bias, we will be blinded by what we want to believe rather than what is actually in front of us ● Evaluating the Strength of an Argument ○ 3 criterion ■ acceptability and consistency of premises ● Only acceptable when it is true ● No contradictions ■ relationship between premises and conclusion ● Look at the source of the information ● How related are the topics ● Need to be adequate or have a sufficient amount of support ■ the unseen part of the argument or if anything is missing what is it ● Need to change point of view so that you can anticipate what the other side will argue ○ Sound Arguments ■ meet the three criterion ● Reasoning or. Rationalizing ○ Rationalizing: we favor the information that will lead to a certain conclusion that we would like to see happen ■ influences which aspects of the argument will be considered missing ● Persuasion and Propaganda ○ mass suggestion or influence through the manipulation of symbols and the psychology of the individual ○ Can alter evidence and distort truth ○ usually use emotion rather than reasoning to get the attention of the people ● Explaining as Knowing ○ People sometimes use their personal knowledge to explain an argument which does not also prove to be the most accurate ○ Unsound reasoning techniques used for the purpose of persuasion are called fallacies ■ Common fallacies ● association effects: if two events happen in the same time period, we associate them as being connected ○ used in politics to create guilt by association ○ Virtue by association: when labels appear to be sound ● Arguments against the person: name calling or calling out the people behind the issue rather than the issue itself ○ associate the person and the idea together ● Appeals to Pity ● Popularity and Testimonials ○ “bandwagoners”: conformity ● False Dichotomy ○ Called simplification or the Black White Fallacy ■ People must make a decision that cannot be determined Yes or No, there is an area of uncertainty ● Appeals to Pride or Snobbery ○ praise and flattery ● Card Stacking or Suppressed Information ○ Fail to state information that the other side is supporting ● Circular Reasoning ○ Premise is a restatement of the conclusion ■ drawn as a circle ● Irrelevant Reasons ● Slippery Slope or Continuum ● Straw person ○ weak and easy to knock down ● Part whole fallacies ○ flip sides of the same error ○ When people assume that because one thing said is true that everything must be true ● Appeals to Ignorance ○ Premise discusses something that the audience is unaware of and thus no evidence ● Weak and Inappropriate Analogies ● Appeals to Authority ● Incomplete Comparisons ● Knowing the Unknowable ● False Cause: Occurs when people believe that because two events occur together, or that one follows the other closely in time, that one caused the other ● Put Downs ● Appeals to Tradition: unstated assumption that what exists is best ● False Charge of Fallacy Ch. 6 Thinking as Hypothesis Testing ● Understanding Hypothesis Testing ○ Hypothesis: belief about a relationship between two or more variables ○ Used to discover how the world works ○ Similar to the experimental methods performed by scientists ○ Explanation, Prediction, and Control ■ Goal is to make accurate predictions about the portion of the world we are dealing with ● Requires the need to reduce uncertainty ○ Observe sequences of events with the goal of determining predictive relationships ○ Inductive and Deductive Methods ■ Inductive: observe events and then devise hypothesis about events observed ● observations>hypothesis ● specific>general ● Conclusions made from here are not 100% certain ○ Operational Definitions ■ tells us how to recognize and measure a concept ○ Independent and Dependent variables ■ Variable: any measurable characteristic that can take on more than one value ● can be gender, height,political affiliation, and attitudes ● Independent: that that is under your control ● Dependent: one you believe will change as a result of the different treatments ● Helps to know how effective the independent variable will be in terms of the dependent one ○ Measurement Sensitivity ● Populations and Samples ○ Population: the group that we are testing ○ Sample: subset of the population being tested ■ Needs to be representative so that the results can be generalized and thus be concluded as successful ■ Biased: not representative of a population ● Polls that do not present accurate results are called selected listener opinion polls or SLOPS ■ A major pitfall comes from the possibility of confounding ● When experimental groups differ in more than one way, making it difficult to separate the effects due to each variable ■ Scientists tend to use convenience samples or those that are readily available ■ Sample Size ● the number of subjects included in sample ○ the larger the sample size, the more confident a person can be in his or her results ■ referred to as the law of large numbers ○ Sometimes people are more persuaded by someone they know and his or her input than by the results of a larger group of people ○ Variability ■ Not everyone has the same opinions or will respond the same way ■ Law of small numbers: people’s willingness to believe that results from a small sample can be generalized to the entire population ● reason there are stereotypes and prejudices ■ Do not need a large sample group when everyone is the same ■ Ability to make accurate predictions depends on our ability to make accurate assessments of variability ● Science Vs. Science Fiction ○ Science: knowing about the world ○ Amazing and Not True ■ Tricks and illusions: Not substitutes for critical thinking ● Determining Cause ○ Isolation and Control of Variables ■ When there is not a random assignment to different groups, one cannot make a causal claim ■ Important to remember that just because two variables occur together does not mean that one was the cause of the other ○ Three Stage Experimental Designs ■ Create different groups that will be studied ● Random assignment ○ Important to determine cause and effect ■ Application of the experimental treatment ■ Evaluate ○ Using the Principles of Isolation and Control ■ Piaget and the Formal Stage of thought ● highest level of cognitive development ○ able to reason in hypothetical situations ○ Prospective and Retrospective Research ■ Retrospective: looking at past events to understand the current event occurring ● biased by selective memories and lack of systematic observations ■ Prospective: identify the possible factors that may be the cause and make a hypothesis using these factors ● More effective than retrospective ○ Correlation and Cause ■ Correlated variables are ones that are related ● Positive correlation: when two measures are related so that they rise and fall together ● Negative Correlation: where the tendency to be high on one variable is associated with the tendency to be low on the other ● There tends to be more than just the variables being examined that have an effect on the situation but most of the time we do not observe these variables ■ Question of causation or “influence” ○ Illusory Correlation ■ the false belief that two variables are related when they are not ● has an influence on our personal beliefs and how we determine how things are related ○ Validity ■ defined as the extent to which it measures what you want it to measure ○ Convergent Validity ■ when several different measures converge onto the same conclusion ■ the more reasons or evidence provided the more confidence one can have in what is to be believed ○ Illusory Validity ■ overconfidence in one’s judgements ■ Factors ● Selective nature of our memory ● Failure to seek or consider disconfirming evidence ○ Big reason why people believe variables are correlated when they are not ○ Tend to dismiss outside information if it is not readily available ○ Reliability ■ the consistency with which it measures what it is supposed to measure ● Thinking About Errors ○ Experience is an Expensive Teacher ■ Only from gaining experience can we decide if something is the cause of another ○ Anecdotes ■ Isolated Anecdotes ● can be found to support almost any point of view and thus makes it hard to disprove it ● Selffulfilling prophecies ○ the tendency to act in ways that will lead us to find what we expected to find ○ To reduce this, one should use double blind procedures ■ Experiments where neither the subject nor the experimenters know who is receiving the treatment ● Occult Beliefs and the Paranormal ○ We tend to believe odd happenings even without sufficient evidence because it is our way of making sense of the abnormal ○ Conspiracy Theories ■ explanation for something that is based on the idea that there is a secret group that was responsible for an event ■ 4 characteristics ● challenge predominant theories ● rely on secret knowledge and flimsy evidence ● do not entertain doubt or permit rebuttals ● divide the world into black or white categories
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