Introd Environmental Studies
Introd Environmental Studies
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Date Created: 03/15/14
WelcomeWhat is the Environment 31514 447 PM What is the environmentquot Biosphere 2 1991 Launch an experiment to test human sustainability 8 people lived inside for 3 years had comm w outside but no direct contact going well at first but in 1992 became BAD 0 there was a strong e nino effect CO increased amp oxygen declined 0 Nutrient cycling too fast 0 Unwanted animals increased in population ex roaches ants 0 Moisture levels increased Today everything is a disaster including the structure Lessons Learned o Unpredictability of environment Sooner or later environment will crash Men should not control environment Can mimic but environ amp ecosystems are very complex Can affect humans greatly OOOO Food for Thought 1 Are people apart from their environment or are they a part of their environment 2 What is the relationship between nature amp culture Ex Yosemite mtn Shanghai city Vermont farm 3 What is the proper relationship btwn nature amp culture Yosemite fed designated as a natural reserve no vehicles Shanghai urban industrial Vermont agricultural rural Sustainability meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs The Brundtland Report 1987 World Comm On Environ amp Dev 0 too vague What needs Whose needs MUST ADDRESS 2 QUESTIONS TO ANSWER QUESTION OF THE DAY 1 What is The relationship btwn humans and the rest of nature 2 What is the proper relationship btwn humans and the rest of nature 3 How can we get there WE CAN39T IT39S A PROCESS NOT A GUESSTIMATION How has the Environment Changed Over Time31514 447 PM Eric Zimmerman Zimmermanesucsbedu Bren Hall Rm 4312 wwwesucsbedu What is the environment 1 Biophysical definition ecosystems landscapes earth systems etc 2 Political Definition cultures institutions policies management practices special designations etc 3 ProblemBased Definition things that need fixing Case Studies Hodgson marine ecologist v Turco climatologist The Global Environment Change or Stability Stability Earth39s temperature has stayed within the same 10 degrees for 5 million years Change Over the past 5 million years the Earth39s mean global temp has oscillated by 10 degrees Whose right Change or Stability in nature depends on When you39re alive 0 Important bc for most of the Western History naturalists amp philosophers assumed nature was in balance Most authors continued to assume a divinely ordained hierarchically organized balance of nature until at least the 18 century As late as the end of the 18 century Carl Linnaeus the architect of modern Taxonomy still argued for a divinely ordered nature The Peaceable Kingdom by Edward Hicks An example of the balance of nature idea In the 19 century four infuences Paeontoogy natural history collecting wildlife extinctions and evolutionary theory changed the way scholars thought about environmental change o By the middle of the 19 century most naturalists embraced a more dynamic view of nature But what did that mean for diff disciplines What you39re studying 0 Geology Uniformitarianism v Catastrophism Uniformitarianism the same gradual processes that currently shape life on earth have always been underway Charles Lyell 2 Ex Grand Canyon can see layers in rocks Catastrophism Earth is shaped by occasional unpredictable transformative events Georges Cuvier 2 Ex Meteor Crater chance one time events 2 Ex Dinosaurs 0 Evolutionary Theory Phyletic Gradualism v Punctuated Equilibrium Phyletic Gradualism Small variations over time product larger changes as populations respond to natural selection Charles Darwin Punctuated Equilibrium Little change occurs over long periods of time but dramatic events sometimes produce major shifts leading to the formation of new species Stephen K Gould o Climatology Gaia Hypothesis v Chaos Theory Gaia Hypothesis Earth comprises a sef reguating system or organism which tends towards equilibrium James Lovelock Chaos Theory Future weather is extremely sensitive to conditions today and climate systems are prone to radical unpredictable change Edward Lorenz o Ecology Successional Theory v Disturbance Theory Successional Theory Ecological communities go through predictable stages of teleological development reaching a final climax state determined by climate and coils Frederick Clements 2 Ex Northern Hardwood Forest regrown Disturbance Theory disturbance is the norm in most ecosystems and can result in unpredictable unindirectional shirts at certain tipping points Henry Gleason 2 Ex Wildland Fire Santa Barbara diff plants grow Where you work Which methods you use Thurs 10412Con nued Global Environment also depends on Spatial scale today Temporal Scale today How does where you work shape how you understand environmental change Can experience change when working in diff places 0 Ex Tropical Rainforest stable environment Climate is stable biodiverse 0 Ex Arctic amp Alpine Areas changed more dramatically amp frequently Climates vary at N amp S latitudes How does scale affect how you understand environmental change Definition of Scale Extent The domain of study Resolution the smallest size object of analysis Can refer to space area Can refer to time period Scale does not exist objectively in nature Scale is a frame of reference that enables study Can be nested overlapping and exclusive Spatial Scale in ecology 0 Planet Biome Ecosystem Landscape Stand OOOO 0 Plot Temporal Scale 0 Geological Evolutionary Ecological Historic PoliticalEconomic 0 Individual Anthropocene since 1800 Holocene past 10k years Pleistocene past 2m years OOOO What are the Causes of Environmental Change31514 447 PM Case Studies Hodgson v Turco cont Natural Causes Occasional chance evens Planetary orbital cycles Geological tectonic change Evolutionary change Climatic cycles Planetary Orbital Cycles Eccentricity shape of the Earth39s orbit Obliquity tilt o the earth39s axis Precession wobble of the line earth on his axis Provide more of less solar insolation at a time Mirror glacial studies Under the current configuration of continents and plates cycle tend to cause cycHca Climatic Cycles Glaciers turning into water 0 EX Muir amp Riggs Glacier and Pedersen Glaciers Is it natural or human Forces of anthropogenic environmental change IPAT IImpact environmental P Population births deaths immigration emigration AAffuence consumption TTechnoogy Technology No simple or straightforward relationship Can increase or reduce impact Consequences depend on both content and use Affluence No simple or straightforward relationship Can increase or reduce impact Multiple competing theories Environmental Kuznets Curve EKC Over time with increasing affluence you get a bell shape curve Means that impact is very low in societies with low levels of affluence Higher in countries with medium levels of affluence Even higher in countries with high level of affluence EX New Guinea China Iceland or Sweden Population No simple or straightforward relationship Can increase impact but does not reduce wo other factors Multiple competing theories Extremely complex dynamic interacting factors Stories vary over space and time The Malthusians Population growth will outpace food production and resource ava ab ty This will lead to conflict disease hunger and other negative checksquot Technology and affluence can alter the rate of change but they will not Carrying capacity Once you reach a certain limit it cannot produce anymore Population follows a logistic growth pattern until it reaches the carrying capacity of the system K Problematic bc we cannot count carrying capacity But this view oversimplifies the complexity of population dynamics and Impacts What about cultural adaptation Technological change Globalization and trade Institutional arrangements Resource allocation Gender equality What an we say about pop And envir Impacts 0 More complex than simply size and growth 0 Correlation with other key indicators can oversimplify important processes IMPACT Can be measured using specific parameters such as land cover change over CO emissions Overall impact is tough to quantify Even the Not the impact or breaking it down btwn natural and cultural What matters is the relationship btwn nature and culture Btwn people and nonhuman envir Its about the unique processes How Can we Measure Environmental Change31514 447 PM Bristle Cone Pine trees that record time through tree rings Donald Currey found the oldest living thing on Earth over 510000 years old We know the environment is changing by looking at Methods for Assessing Change Over time Sediments Ice cores for studying climate change Pack rat middens create burrows that collect plant matter amp becomes fossilized Tree rings Archaeological remains Written records Old scientific data or specimens Photographs air satellite repeat Long term field studies or repeat surveys Computer models Direct Sources v Proxy Sources DS measurements taken of the process or subject itself Ex counting the of fish in a pond PS measurements take of one process or subject to understand another process or subject Proxies are indirect sources Ex Measuring the width of tree rings as a proxy for past precipitation 0 Ex of Proxy Indicator Species sere as the canary in the coal mine for ecosystems CA Bay Deta amp delta smelt Qualitative non numerica v Quantitative numerical Sources Q1 Ex Historical text written in standard prose Q2 Ex Data gathered about ecological conditions by scientists in the past Cyclical Change v Secular Change CC patterns of change over time that operate on cycles such as the seasons SC contingent unique changes that shape broader patterns and do not repeat An example would be a species extinction Correlation v Causation C1 an apparent relationship btwn 2 variables Ex Business cycles amp sun spots Correlation doesn39t necessarily imply a causal relationship C2 an actual relationship btwn 2 variables such that changes in the valu of one affect the value of another ex The size of an island distance from mainland amp the of species that live there Driving Forces v Proximate Causes DF large scale forces that are responsible for change for a global or regional scale Ex Influence of glacial cycles on the distribution of butterfly species PC sma scae processes that affect change in specific tangible ways Are the butterflies moving to new areas bc it39s becoming too not or bc they are following their host plant The case of the American Bison No one knows how many bison there were before the into of the horse to western NA By the beginning of the 19 century appear to be abundant Accounts are numerous but anecdotal 0 Lots of annecdotes that say the samething so prob true 1800s Pop collaspsed bc of hunting Maybe have been under pressure before this 1890 Only a handful of bison remained All in captivity Earnest Thomas Seton boyscout estimated that in the early 19 century pop was 65 million bison Used info about habitat and range Backcasting use info about today and historical info to infer about past Baseline point of set of records that you use to compare subsequentchanges Shiftinq Baseline Syndrome people lose count in history over time Every generation has a new baseline We forget how many or what the precedents were in the past Case of the Desert Tortoise Common a century ago but have declined since Decline was synergistic hunting pet trade habitat loss disease Establish a long term monitoring program but was difficult 0 Behavior age structure training fieldworkers funding sampling protocol Type 1 Error false positive Ex Seeing a pop decline when one does not exist Type 2 Error false negative Ex Thinking a pop is stable when in fact it is declining The Gray Wolf Once common but declined due to hunting and predator control programs Began to recover in some areas through recolonization and reintro Expanding their range into areas where they have not lived for many decades What areas will wolves reoccupy What wll they arrive How will wolves affect other species Numerical modeling 0 Using empirical data ecological theory amp geographic info 0 Involve the past present or future but is often associated with prediction Population Viability analysis Can Altered Elements be Restored 31514 447 PM Quiz Tues Basic key concepts case studies in lecture and readings Only address section before part 1 1 What do we know about envir Change 3 How environ change What39s important Uniformitarianism vs 4 What you think and how you make sense of what you see depends on time period discipline scale of organization Perspective matters 5 Both present and part of envir systems Identify natural and human cases but ultimately we see places that have been shaped overtime by natural and social forces Need to understand natural and human history 6 Synergistic interacting with each other 7 Difficult to measure amp create models to increase understanding 8 Memories ideas 2 But what about specific changes Given us a lot of ways to think about environ but what about the specific facts about what is changing now 0 1 Goal is to teach concepts and critical thinking not content o 2 Getting facts later in the quarter Area going to be talking about are in slides 3 Can altered envir be restored Friend doing research about ecological restoration 0 Restoration what are you recreating from the past amp from what period The more research he did the more he realized that when ppl talked about restoration they wanted to restore places back to primitive wilderness times Golden Age of European Ecology o In US ppl talked about restoration in nature Europe culture 45 cont In US discussion about restoration started in late 19 century 0 Go to Am West and restore after exploitation from lack of regulation By 196039s Wildlife Mgmt in the National Park 0 0 Doesn39t talk about animalsnature White man gendered amp ethnocentric What39s a relevant ecological baseline No info about past ecological conditions and now he wants to recreate it Clean break btwn primeval non white past and a more modern period Line is still blurry cause of constant change Doesn39t consider time it takes to change environment Idea that before Europeans arrived we were living in harmony with nature Have to remember that Europeans made mistakes bc before colonization native Am already altered land through hunting and gathering Assumption that changes that have occurred are neg and that you would want to change it to the way it was It might be better for some species and not for others Restoring to a period of time Or restoring to a healthy state 6 Restoration and history cont 1 Know that cycles are going on and it seems like history repeats itself but you can39t go back in time Cycles are never the same winter diff from last winter 2 No one point in the past that is clearly the point at which you would want to restore the system ex Am 1930s 60s 4 If climates change over 150 years how can you restore ecosystem back to that period with diff climate now 6 Ex Bringing grizzly bears back to CA Scare people 7 General Goals of restoration diversity envir has become less diverse Fix Productivity Forest system so that animals can live there and that produces enough wood for humans Resiience property of system that allows it one damaged to return to its previous state 0 High resilience Low stability Easy to change and restore 0 Low resilience High stability Takes a lot of change to change but once changed takes lot of energy to restore 8 Specific Goals Ecosystem Services range of services that natural systems provide to society 0 Wetlands are important bc provide buffers for hurricanes o Pollination agricultural crops would decrease wo wilderness 9 Reasons for Restoration Mitiqation Programs 10 Mitigation Programs No net loss of wetlands going to have dev and it is going to happen near wetlands areas controversy no loss of wetlands By the time put into place 90 of wetlands were already lost by creating a new one will it help to fix the one that was lost in the first place 11 Approaches to Restoration Levels of intervention should we let nature fix itself Recreation Or should create entire new wetlands from scratch Design 12 Tools Floods recreate ecological conditions in the Grand Canyon that happened before the dam was built Heavy Machinery sometimes this can do more harm than good 13 Big Questions Restoration needs to be theory Field is site specific goals tools answers and objectives 141516 Example 1 Florida Everglades Water Resources Dev Act launched world39s largest restoration project 171819 Ex 2 Western Snowy Plover use beach areas during the summer circle controversial area Live in urban areas where there are other uses Study Guide 31514 447 PM Case Studies Public opinion about the env in the US Gallup Polling Ethics what s right Vaues what s people think is right Surveys Ethnographies Atruism want to do good Selfinterest Community or human species interest Social ecology environmental damage caused by human injustice Black Act poaching EP Thompson author opinion on Black Act Ecofeminism look at env through lens of gender UtilitarianismInstrumental Value greatest happiness Jeremy Bentham created utilitarianism Conservation can use land Preservation can t use land Biocentrism value in individual animals Animal Liberation animals have rights Peter Singer fought that animals have rights Should Trees Have Standing Stone animals go to court Ecocentrism value in collection of animals A sand county almanac by Aldo Leopold 0 Land ethic biotic community has its own value Postmaterialist Thesis richer care about env more Case Studies Smoking in the Check Republic Cost benefit analysis with more benefits but no consideration for emotion Philip Morris conducted study Cost benefit analysis economic means of making env decisions Natural Capital everything Nature book by Constanza placed a value on all the world39s ecosystem services and natural capital Problematic can39t put value Michael Sandel you can put value one everything Democracy all citizens have a say Bureaucratic agencies making decisions part of local state or fed Stakeholderbased communities can make policy decisions Commerce Clause fed gov has power to regulate what comes in and out of states Treaty Power fed gov can enact treaties with other governments even treaties that infringe on st rights Property Power relates to fed property national parks resources has const right to protect its property and resources on that land Public trust doctrine st govs have the right and authority to manage and regulate natural resources for the benefit of the people Federalism levels of gov Police power enact laws not on constitution Enumerated power enact laws on constitution Organic Act ex of conflicting mandate enjoyment and unimpaired Judicial Review courts if asked will look at certain aspects of law and rule on them CA assembly Bill 32 reduce emission levels Mass v EPA regulating carbon condition under Clean Air Act Copenhagen Climate Change Conference world came together to talk about issues pertaining to climate change Regulation refers to limiting unwanted byproducts of economic processes Admin mgmt of natural resources Promoting best use for the longest time Command and Control Compliance focuses on whether co meets standards and not goals Non point source comes from various locations Montreal Protocol stop use of CFC s Lead Industries Ass v EPA no more lead in gas Technology or design standards regulate technology used Performance Based agencies have to meet standards in any way CA Assembly Bill 32 Market Oriented Approach incentives not mandatory Voluntary Approach create own standards or might get some by gov Cooperative federalism states and fed gov are working together Performance based btwn fed and state Case Studies Summiting Mount Whitney diff gov and agencies that administrate the same piece of land Disposition acts where we gave out land bc didn39t care about env back then Mission 66 prepare for people to come Who cares about the Environment amp Why 31514 447 PM Part II Environmental Politics Who cares about the Env amp why Ethics amp Values I Case Studies Public opinion about the environment in the US Data from Gallup Polling from 19852011 o Protection of environment should be given priority o Economic growth should be given priority Question implies that there is no middle ground II Seriousness of global warming Graph 2008 pres Election recession housing prices price of oil at its highest III How much do you worry about the quality of the env Graph IIII Gov is doing too much right amount or too little Graph IV Rate overall Gov Data Env getting better or getting worse Data VVI What people think about specific problems and what they want done Data People don39t like the label of environmentalist even though they support values about the environment VII What are values Ethics tends to refer to normative what is desirable or what ought to be guide to the right thing to do Values refer to what people think is of worth Studies about what people think NOT what is right 8 What are values Values come into play o When it is obvious that the decisions we make are clear Values are not o Subjective peoples values do not represent what are their economic interest 9 Values are related to attitudes do I think pos or neg about it Traits what about you shape you decisions Preferences Prefer one think over another Does this come into play with the env Roles to society To people Behaviors Problematic o 1 Not clear btwn peoples values and behaviors might be 0 2 Really HARD to measure Easy to say that you support something but when writing a check have a diff opinion 10 Methods It is not easy to measure pp s behaviors and values Surveys significant benefits 13 Bad 4 Ethnographies find out what they are doing 3 can39t get out of surveys No perfect way to do it All have pos and neg 11 Anthropocentric Value Frameworks Directed towards people 0 Altruism problematic Relies on biological evolutionary framework the way we interact is bio AND cultural Which acts are biological and which are sef interest o Sef Interest You people around you 0 Community or Human Species Interest 12 Social Ecology Env damage is linked to relations btwn ppl In justices btwn ppl in human societies is related in env degradation and vice versa 0 Black Act passed by king in 1800s for illegal harvesting Ecofeminism env relationships are fundamentally gendered 13 Utilitarianism From Jeremy Bentham resources should be used to the best benefit of society Instrumental value value in nature in the extent to which it benefits of humans for the most people for the longest time 14 Conservation vs Preservation According to utilitarianism Conservation was about the rational use of resources Beginning of 20 century conservation broke up into diff schools of thought Strong conservationist named John Muir said resources are also in preservation of landscape too Pinchot and Muir lost 15 Non Anthropocentric Biocentrism there is value in life particularly in organs Animal Liberation Peter Singer 0 Argued that animals may not have rights but they have interests Primary interests is the avoidance of suffering o Foundational to efforts to reduce suffering among animals Should Trees Have Standing 0 Legal scholar Should non human beings have standing in court 0 Interests are not represented in court of law 16 Ecocentrism focuses on broader entities instead of plant focus on ecosystem a Sand County Almanac Aldo Leopold 0 land ethic idea that biotic community has its own value 17 Parties have switched over time can39t associate particular views with any one party Proqressive Era conservation was related to Republicans 0 Current Era increasingly polarized party split Env issues are associated to Democratics 18 Postmaterialist Thesis when people get rich they get concerned to the env Problematic o 1 How do you define the env if you define as you get your clean water then you will care 0 2 Data does not support it 1920 Cont poorest people are the ones who are most concerned about the env Masow s Hierarchy of Needs 0 If you have resources and opportunities and wealth then you have the ability to develop a higher state of value 0 People who are struggling at life are the ones who care the most The things that they care about are the things we are used to getting water and food What is the Environment Worth 31514 447 PM Economic and Values Case Studies Cigarette smoke and the value of a life Damming the grand canyon Climate change an economic growth 1 Who cares about the env and why Ethics refers to the way you should act 0 Values what ppl thinkbelieve Post materialist thesis once you become rich you will care about the env 23 Philip Morris Study Costs amp Benefits of Smoking Tabaco Co did study to push policy in Check Repub More benefits than costs Cannot calculate emotional stress amp psychological side in a costbenefit analysis Distracted Drivers Study States want to increase fines as a result from tech distractors Cell phone industry argues drivers using phones productivity Not just people getting hurtloosing properties its costs of repairing roads doctors and etc 4 Definition of Cost Benefit Analysis economic means of making env decisions reports relative simplicity 5 Approaches 1 Efficient economically efficient solutions 2 Applied to a wide variety of modern problems such as env and health Proven to be controversial 4 Can be expressed as ratios too 1 all equal 1 lt costs outweigh the benefits 6 Methods of CBA 1 Figure out what things cost 2 Putting a value on the item or experience EX How much willing to pay to see a National Park 3 Property values What people will pay for property and how their payment is related to env values EX How much willing to pay for a house on the beach in SB 4 Ask people what they value 5 How much would you pay 6 How you value life expectancies Ex Cigarette example How much willing to pay to live for 90 years instead of 85 o Depends on how much money you make and other circumstances family value of life 7 Problem 1 2 Consumptive v Non consumptive taking down forests or no hiking 3 Market v non market Things sold in markets but then again other things not sold in markets 4 Similar to consumptive 5 Value piece of land that you will never visit or use but is still being preserved 0 Can be used for fossil fuels 0 Argue that it has value independent of itself 6 Benefits of a project Based on projections and equations 8 Problem 2 the future 1 How much you value something in the future v the present 2 CBA thinks about Economic efficiency but not the distribution of wealth 3 Are you concerned about future generations Kids Their kids Great grand kids Great great grand kids 4 Uncertainty what do we know Can we predict the future 5 Are their things that we are doing now that are irreversible that could limit the opportunities that people have in the future 6 Proceed with caution when determining CBA 9 EX 2 proposals for dam in Grand Canyon 1 US Bureau 2 dams would benefit AZ and the US more power 0 based on calculations benefits outweigh the costs 2 Bureau calculations were fishy Costs significantly outweigh the benefits in terms of power and water Other things that should be considered other than power and water in CBA Tourism Benefits 11 Cautious v Costly Graph Think about size of economy vs Time 12 Costly v Reckless Effects could be so reckless that there could be no money to reverse it 13 Ecosystem Services benefits of nature for a human society 1415 Approach benefits nature and humans at the same time Ex Pollination services less classical and more new approach called ecological system cannot say that if we run out of one thing we can replace it 16 Natural capital produce or provide for ecosystem services biodiversity water sheds coastal communities 17 Ecosystem Services value greater than total value of economy Ecosystems do not have a value How do we make environmental policy decisions 31514 447 PM 1 What is the env worth CBA 0 Questions What should we do given scarce resources and inherit tradeoffs Ecosystem services 0 Monetize ecosystem functions get for free but has a value to it 2 Who cares about the env and why Market Economy v Market Society 0 Everything in some way should be able to be reduced to dollars and cent both CBA and Ecosystem services NO problem even the values we create are controversial 345 Habitat conservation on the Stanford campus trout salamander and frog endangered species on campus write a habitat rehabilitation plan 6 What is democracy Direct vote 0 Rep vote for ppl who Rep Par par that debate issue and rep the districts Pres like Par congress but have a strong exec branch Con not just a body of laws there39s a single doc or many docs that define parameters of decision making 7 Demo in the US in election we vote for rep in local state and fed amp also direct demo about policies Bureaucratic agencies making decisions part of local state or fed Stakehoder based provides an opportunity for ppl to rep diff communities to get together to make policy decisions 8 Demo in the US Map Dark Green Best Demo Orangish Red Less Demo 9 Const bases for Env Laws Commerce Clause broadest of these 3 powers Treaty Power fed gov can enact treaties with other governments even treaties that infringe on st rights Property Power relates to fed property national parks resources has const right to protect its property and resources on that land Public trust doctrine st govs have the right and authority to manage and regulate natural resources for the benefit of the people 10 Federalism 11 Inst authority is shared btwn diff levels of gov Police power unrestricted const ability to enact laws on a wide variety of issues and to enforce them Enumerated powers enlisted powers authority to enact laws listed in constitution States rights one way of talking about federalism Diversity in recent years increasing number of players involved in the policy making process Problematic Ex Stanford case has lots of overlapping agencies Conflicting agencies responsibly for env protection frequently have legislation behind them that gives them conflicting goals 0 Multiple use foster multiple types of resources that they manage recreation watershed mining gazing bird watching Sustain yield manage in such a way so that resources will still be there in the future 12 National Park Service ex Of conflicting mandate Organic Act 13 The role of the courts Judicial Review courts if asked will look at certain aspects of a law and rule on them 1 Do ppl suing court have standing qualify to suit Harm and improve situation 2 Adhere to Commerce Treaty and Property Power 0 Laws are written in a way that is difficult to understand can be interpreted in many ways 4 If congress was unclear did agency make a reasonable interpretation of law that congress passed that was vague 5 Many laws spell out procedures in order to make reasonable decisions 0 all env agencies have to adhere to national env policy act methods by which it needs to do to make a decision 6 Ex Did the park service adhere to own legislative mandating Reasonably interpreting their own legislation 1415 Env Era env became a crucial issue in politics Period in which a lot of the laws that we follow today were written and passed 16 Current Period Backlash to env laws Ppl felt regulatory efforts went too far Congress has done very little since Env Era early 1980s Result is ppl looking for diff ways to create new policies to go around congress 1 Go through the courts 2 Go through st legislatures 17 Our System Today 18 EX complicated ppl fight a lot not general but each other decen a lot going on and they do not work with each other densely pop institutions and org ex Stanford publicprivate lots of gray area newold laws that have been passed over many many years at diff periods in time and now we are still dealing with them Climate Change Action CA assembly Bill 32 reduce emission levels Mass v EPA regulating carbon condition under Clean Air Act Copenhagen Climate Change Conference not much happened Local gov LA has own climate change approach What does this tell us about how policies are made 0 Diff types of insti And levels of gov working together 0 Congress has been absent from policy making legislation for many years although they have the many powers to do it 0 Initiative starts small and then goes to congress rep states institutions 0 TAKE HOME ANSWER Policy making process is nonlinear Live in system in which power is not particularly concentrated so not one group can accumulate the balance of power How do we regulate the environment 1 U1 31514 447 PM Know how to answer these questions How do we make env policy decisions Const Congress clause treaty power amp Property power Fed crucial to understanding all aspects of policy making inc How people think about the distribution of power What level of gov should have the authority to pass reg make laws enforce amp etc Inst Diversity Lot of institutions included in policymaking process Ex Climate Change action in Sec 3 Regulation v Admin Reg refers to limiting unwanted biproducts of economic processes Admin management of land waters and natural resources Promoting best use for the longest time Endangered Species Act regulates cant shoot and kill Admin manage species to survive Origins around 1970 not many laws relating to the reg of pollution Reg was mostly at the state level and they weren39t doing much Command and Control regulations that directmandate non gov org to do certain things Sometimes old facilities do not have do abide by reg like new facilities Problems w command and control compliance focus on whether or not companies being regulated are actually following the reg o concerned about lowering pollution or whether they are complying w the reg Since standards and reg can differ btwn facilities shows gov has favor es Non point sources come from everywhere carbon emissions are coming from all over the place 0 Point source pollution from a factory 89 Montreal Protocol national agreement to stop the use of CFC s phasing out of a particular chemical that was dangerous Command and control of CFC s Stratospheric Ozone Depletion 10 leaded gasoline used for many purposes Rome piping throughout city Should lead be in gasoline Lead Industries Ass vs EPA EPA could allow a proposed phase out People in certain groups are more exposed to substance than ppl in other groups 0 Intercity communities where homes have not been painted paint has lead in it lead into soi children play outside Since lead has been phased out of gasoline amount of lead in pp s blood stream has declined dramatically I Good ex Of Complicated and drawn out political policies 11 Tech or design stand instead of regulating what an industry can put out total emissions regulate what they should use in processes reg equip tech way design factoriesproduction processes mandating use of tech locking industries into using a certain kind of tech and people will not want to pay for such expensive tech 0 reduce interest in creating new tech if know that gov only wants companies to use one type of tech 12 Performance based standards what your overall goal is for pollution and then allow firms to figure out their possible means of reaching those standards Flexibility industries want to adopt the most efficient and more cost effective for themselves Continue to focus on the specific firm or factory Better if focus on society at large Concerned about not one firm but about the overall level of pollution affecting society Ongoing monitoring say firm can reduce a certain amount of emissions you have to keep track of if they are doing it 13 CA Assembly Bill 32 Example of performance based standard and it has the advantage of not focusing on firm but on CA as a whole Also market oriented approach 14 Market oriented Approaches encourage competition 15 Graph NOX and SOX Emissions Acid Rain 1995 Ex of market oriented approach allow a certain amount of pollution give credits then trade credits 0 more pollution buy credits 0 less pollution sell credits to other firms Successful By 2006 decline of 40 16 Voluntary Approaches Fed gov not going to impose standards on you but you must create your own standards Not going to say that you have to reach a certain standard but you have to let the public know what you are doing how much junk are you dumping in the river Works best when say Don39t volunteer than you might have standards enforced on you that are stricter 17 Regulation Today Aspects that has many diff types of regulation Many adversaries are present diverse system Cooperative federalism states and fed gov are working together Fed gov setting standards and state figure out ways to work within standards Review 1 1112 Regulation can encourage innovation Costs per firm should think about it as cost and benefit to societythink more broadly Green States v Richest States Greenest states overlap with richest states Can afford to be green higher quality environment Maybe there is a relationship where as improve env regulation you improve industry gt goes hand in hand Richer ppl choose to be in richer places maybe shouldn39t be measured by state COMPLICATED TO TALK ABOUT ECONOMY AND ENVIRONMENT Section Jeopardy 31514 447 PM Altruism Apparent and unconditional desires to do good Aldo Leopold Arthur that argued for new land ethic in a sand county almanac Feminism Area of thought that looks at env problems through the lens of gender Commerce Clause This has given congress wide sweeping power to pass and regulate env laws Ethnography An in depth interview and observation technique used to produce qualitative data Cost Benefit Analysis This tech is used to understand tradeoffs involved in env decision making Biocentrism The idea that values exist in individual organisms or biological entities Biodiversity is an example of this natural capital Ecocentrism The idea that values exist in collections of organisms or natural entities EP Thompson Arthurhistorian that noted the social consequences of the black act Utilitarianisminstrumental value This value is assoc with the greatest happiest principal Michael Sandvil This author argues that there are very few things that money can39t buy Problem for society Newgengridge Gridlock is evident in the contentious relationship between pres Clinton and this speaker of the house Post materiaist thesis This thesis contends that poor people care more about meeting there basic needs than other issues Revealed Preference Well the use of stated preference are fairly obvious travel cost and hedonic prices are used to produce this Punctuated Equilibrium This theory utilize by Bren partner and jones specifies that institutional disruptions can be disrupted changes Discounting This tech is used to reduce the value of future returns Gallup A well known org that compiles decades of public opinion surveys many obtaining to the env Weber This individual argues that beaurocracy is the most efficient form of social org John Meyer Activist author that promoted preservation Take away from reading Current env policy is built off of many layers and many periods of political env but current policies some conflict holes conflicting agencies gtcontributes to gridlock Pendulum swings btwn Golden area broad laws that address point sources of pollution and are effective and Gridlock Understanding y and when pendulum swings is what you need to apply to reading TIME PERIODS AND WHY THEY ARE THE WAY THEY ARE Who manages the environment 31514 447 PM Management of land and natural resources not regulation 1MapofUS major land use types by state throughout the US grassland rangeland forest lands are the main land types 2 6 Case Studies Summiting Mount Whitney Highway 395 fed highway Interagency visitor center give you permit to go to Mt Whitney o 3 fed agencies combined Drive through Inyo county and a fish hatchery and lots US Federalist system Fed gov States Local gov Fed land management Prehistory disposition Wanted to get rid of land sell give it away transfer it General Land office surveys large areas sold off lands private use for development Swampland Act fed gov would give at a very cheap price who want to drain wetlands and reclaim wetlands for agricultural use Homestead Act guanarantee 160 acres in the West all they had to do was farm it for a few years and it was theres 0 Encourage ppl to move to the west westward expansion 0 Problems speculation and corruption Some ppl Accumulated a lot of land and wealth in ways gov never intended Transfers to state problems US Forest Service 0 Grew rapidly during Progressive Era FTO more direction Weeks Act gave fed gov authority to purchase land to bring into national forest MUSYA competing claims for resources guidelines for setting those claims Map of National Forests Vast majority are in the West bc 0 Less populated 0 Strong progressive mvmt in CA one being fed conservation of forest Lost of forest in the east were cut down more farmed and more populated Land of Many Uses utilitarian idea of conservation Land of uses for the most ppl for the longest time National Park Service Mission 66 after WW2 lots of ppl with money were coming back and wanted to camp Lots of construction that went on to try to prepare for all those people coming to national parks gt preservation Wildlife Mgmt Not a very good reputation at first Feeding bears Kick burning ambers at the top of Glacier Point Crater Lake Lodge Grand rustic typical of older hotels Want ppl to come but still want preservation US Fish and Wildlife Service 3rd major fed gov Not only management agency but also regulatory agency 0 It has had most of the responsibility of regulating the endangered species act Map of NWRS o Cluster in the east middle and the west bc There is more wildlife where there is water Migratory routes for birds 0 Top center Really important stops for birds small bodies of water Bureau of Land Mgmt Focused on 2 amp Economical dev Not in recreation conservation or preservation Fed land policy and Mgmt Act now focus on manage lands for multiple uses including mining timber and grazing but also recreation conservation historical values endangered species Some people argue that BLM isn39t doing job well Map 0 Most in Alaska and in the west Other land agencies NOAA manages species and critical habitats Big Map of Federal Land Overall pattern of fed land in the west More private land in other parts of the country Percentage of land in each State NV has the highest o Distribution of fed lands is uneven throughout the country Most in the western states and Alaska Fed land mgmt Golden Age last from 1964 eary 1980s Profoundly shaped the way Preservation System Wilderness act imposed a new type of land mgmt preservation on agencies Told agencies that they have wildlife have to follow regulations and standards on preservation CA Resources Agency State administer a lot less land than fed gov Main land mgmt agency Dept of Parks and Recreation 0 Largest single st park in the county CA CA parks is gt5 o Anza Borrego Desert State Park Biggest in the country by a long shot Local Gov More important than states Responsible of a wide variety of land use States do not interfere that much County General Plans Overall we have gave a lot of land use decisions to local gov diff than many other countries Comparing lands not the only system and doesn39t work the best Has pollution increased or diminished over time31514 447 PM Case Studies The Khian Sea Barge 14000 tons toxic waste in Philidelphia over 16 months ship sailed around the world Haiti deposited 4000 lbs lied about uses NYC env services found out and worked with phil Dumped the remainder in Indian and Atlantic Ocean Went back to Haiti to gather material and cleaned up but still didn39t have anywhere to go 2002 remaining 250bs was buried at landfill in Pennsylvania Basel Convention restrict long distance transport of toxic materials Predatory dumpinq toxic materials get dumped where ppl Env Kuznets Curve Over time as countries goes through stages of dev low levels to higher levels of pollution Disguises wat is important Denmark Strong EKC Graph Graph from Denmark conveying a strong EKC relationship plots DMI resource increases then decrease but use of resources continues Table 2 Ambient air quality data for selected Asn countries Decreases over time in air pollution Idea here is that if you pick this up midstream top watching decline overtime Singapore and Malaysia are increasing total consumption and decreasing pollution and env degradation Fig 4 Foreign Investment Pollution is decreasing in China 0 Inverse relationship with foreign investment Similar to Mexico and Brazil Rock and Angel Reading 1 Arguing that actually contrary to what many ppl believe forget about env there has been a effort to try to get env under control 4 Not just through command and control Work not for US but those countries authors supporting or refuting EKC 0 World doesn39t function like ideal EKC we have some control 0 Predicts that everything is going to get better but doesn39t take into account the values ppl have about env Graph of CAFE standards Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards In place for several decades CAFE standards dictate what average fuel economy for car must be Over time if you look at CAFE standards standards increased from about 18 MPG to mid 2039s 19801986 Since then remained black 0 Fed gov from 19862008 did not require any increased in total averaging fuel economy for fuel in the US Carbon Dioxide Emissions Graph Overall message carbon emissions per person have not changed that much Decline in economic downturns and increase in economic upturns World Map US Canada and Australia producing the most pollution CO2 total per country Doesn39t take into account foreign investment CO2 over time Graph sorta Divided up into regions of the world 0 Overall global pattern Diff regions tend to follow similar pattern of growth over time Compare certain places there are diff Significant moments when particular events have effects on overall consumption of fossil fuels AIR POLLUTION IN US METROPOLITAN AREAS Pollution declining in many area and very significantly in LA Answer is in part that in CA in early 1990s there were stricter standards As a result LA pollution decreased Hypothetical extension of EKC Can provide as example if you go back in time Toxic Release Inventory TRI Each dot sitefacility that has toxic releases Shaded areas lowest percent of white ppl Is this correlation or causality Hard to know Looking through the lens of race Proximity of Household Earning UnderMap Has to do with class not race Darker higher o of low income households Ex Of looking at lens of class Env Justice Quotebullets Whose exposed to that pollution over time Began as academic study 5 Expanded to questions ofjustice around the world Including justice relating to climate change Cha enges 1 Are those dots by chance or causal mechanism If causal Timing lower cost attracted or facilities moved in 0 3 What is the imp variable 5put facility here cuz cheap or no one will speak up about us being here HAS POLLUTION INCREASED OR DIMINISHED OVER TIME In US carbon dioxide has remained relatively stable but op has gone up 28 and total carbon emission has gone up too Depends what kind of country you live in what kind of neighborhood where you are wide variety of factors Final know that it depends and articulate why and reasons and key examples Focus on gross change and distrib of risk and exposure DO species extinctions matter 31514 447 PM Biodiversity Very general Invented recently as part of effort to draw attention to genetic loss and diversity 1 In terms of traditional hierarchy of life Organize in diff kinds of organisms 2 In terms of levels of biodiversity o Indiv every person in the class brings something unique 0 Pop breeding population 0 Species some diversity but fundamental organizing unit of biodiversity Most of our conservation laws are based on 0 Eco living beings interacting with other living things and their env species energy flows physical and chemical organisms o Biome largest level of biodiversity organization Broad regional category Desert biome or tropical rainforest biome Global Pattern of Biodiversity biodiversity increases as you head towards equator and vice versa Geologically diverse great climate and boundary of two diff species and they overlap Biodiversity is still being measured Poorly understood Finding new species all the time Amphibian species named and identified btwn 20042007 globally Biodiversity Hot Spots Green identified in the first study of hot spots Blue additional studies Endemic species species that does not exist anywhere else Specific to one region only Areas that are particularly diverse within the global pattern Some are not just in tropics like CA 0 CA is not close to equator but 1 or 5 regions that are categorized as Mediterranean type ecosystem diverse in terms of animals and plants Defined by Normanm region that has either 5 o or 1500 endemic species Hot spots also vary by taxonomic group Taxonomic Group of certain types of animals Species richness total number of species in an area Amphibians same pattern Species Area Curve Think of pattern in a smaller scale In general as you look at a larger area you get more species Curve changes in diff types of systems 0 A lot of species in the beginning then species decrease o Diversity is small and repeats itself 0 CA has coastlines kelp forests mtns desert wetlands temperate rain forest meadows do have small scale diversity but a lot of large scale diversity makes CA a hotspot Background rate of extinctions 1 1 species worldwide per year are naturally going extinct each year from fossil record Processes where species are evolving and some are dying 0 Record is punctuated from major events Mass extinctions 5 major mass extinctions to date diff patterns 0 more species in diff env going extinct marine Graph from fossil record Graph going back 540 million years ago Over time shows a general increase in diversity Subject to wave pattern up and down Series of significant events 5 yellow arrows where genes species amp etc were lost 5 smaller extinctions blue arrows Sixth Mass Extinction 6h Mass Cartoon Many scientists believe this Pleistocene Megafauna wooly mammoth saber tooth tigers creatures that were existing during Pleistocene Climate was much cooler Lived in north Am Graph extinctions of mammal genera 0 Spike in nor Am A lot of diff animals went extinct Big went first then small stuck around among mammals Ex nc on Anthropocene Dodo bird 3 flightless bird native to an island Interesting bc it inhabited islands all over the world But the Dodo were killed by Europeans during colonial expansion flightless birds grew extinct Graph number has increased in Anthropocene period Projected extinctions based on what we do not know What o of species in large taxonomic groups are considered endangered 2quot Cartoon projected extinctions or guesstimates Do not know how many diff types of plants insects and animals there are in the world Reasons for concern about biodiversity loss 2quotd article Eco ser based on natural capital Part of natural capital is biodiversity 0 Better when more diverse Marketabe ecotourism Benefit provided through maintenance of biodiversity Scientific lost of potential knowledge Biophilia evolutionary history based in interacting with diverse systems how we became who we are over time Intergenerational distributive justice justice is not just subject to ppl living to day but fairness over the course of future generations Efforts to protect species and diversity Lacey Act justified by interstate commerce clause Regulated and prevented movement of fish and game btwn states Fur Seal Convention brought together countries Endangered Species Act Passed accidentally bc Congress did not read it Protection for many species Fed gov will step in make sure they are protected and then recover then give back to states Endangered species by state 1st in HI isolated island 239 CA most atrisk species most listed at in the West coast ESA 1 o have recovered 1 o delisted due to extinction therefore not working bc no species getting recovered and none getting extinct gt both true a lot of species took a long time to decline and 40 years is not long enough to recover them Causes of controversy Proxy debates ppl are using endangered species to enact other laws Set aside more national parks or wilderness areas Target for conservation focus on species or ecosystems Case Studies Steelhead in So Cal and beyond Used to have real good steelhead fishing top right picture Continue to have good pop until 1950 Largest Dam built and blocks habit and creates Lake Cachuma 0 Only a few stragglers in lake Steelhead Rainbow trout One of the most widely cultivated and distributed like sheep Distributed in many countries look at graph Derived from single genetic stock 0 Rainbow trout live in freshwater Some fraction of rainbow trout becomes steelhead MYSTERY o Happens during wet seasons Something happens and they go to the ocean and when they come back they look like salmon o No one has found genetic marker to distinguish them apart 1997 US fish and wildlife service added steealhead to endangered species list other pop added to list look at slide Important bc steelhead inhabit rivers all along westcoast amp ther mgmt amp recovery under ESA requires significant actions to be taken Involve mgmt of land surrounding and changes in water distribution systems canals dams reservoirs Are we running out of water 31514 447 PM The Hydrologic Cycle Flow of water among Earth39s systems atmosphere rivers clouds ocean ground Sometimes we can see water move rivers drizzle Good in mtn ranges forces precipitation compared to bad in flat Hadley Cell Circulation Circulation of air vertical and horiz from generally equator to poles One means of transferringcirculatingredistributing heat from equator to the poles o In process also circulating water ocean currents Shapes global patterns of precipitation all over the world Average Annual Precipitation In US World Tropics wet subtropics drier poles dry poler desert Subtoropical belt both wet and dry West water is not evenly distributed East more evenly distributed Historic Annual Precip Constant oscillation btwn wet and dry 1941 ots of precip then goes into a drought average but not normal take precip add and divide then get an average but truth is on any given year unlikely to get that average Go back 1000 years Not seeing a lot of years that hit the average Lots of years that diverge a lot from the average Late 19 century significant bc a lot of planning and infrastructure and designing of city and assumptions about water systems happened here Water Stress Different kinds 0 Absolute really do have deficit in amount of water to use in ecosystems o Socialeconomic water resources have not developed and made available Total Water Use by Country Countries that have a lot of water use china US Not important Total Water use per capita Total Water use as a percentage of total available What o of water are we using compared to total water available Residential Water use in the US Freshwater Use in CA 70 goes to agriculture 48 goes toward environmental uses 0 anytime let water flow free ex Down river for fish 4 Key variables shape precip patterns in CA CA has lots of water but it is in places where it is not needed at times when it is not needed much 1 Latitude north more 2 higher more 3 closer to coast more 4 mtn ranges capture precip Downwind getting clouds after they dumped moisture Inherent Challenges Not where we need it when we need Difficult and expensive and dangerous Dams can fail 0 Costs assoc with storing and redistribute Competing social and economic trade offs Residential urban agricultural everyone wants some History of Water Mgmt Mono Lake Case city of LA forced to stop diverting so much water from mono lake Put water back to restore lake Map of major features of CA s current water system Over 1000 reservoir river systems System is designed to get water to where ppl need it when they need it Comes with significant costs Some current CA water challenges Mountain snowpack diminishing Pollution ever since mining Groundwater overdrafting mining at a rate that is greater than replacement rate Saltwater intrusion pump out groundwater in agri area near coast ground water filled back in with salt water and contaminates water Oversubscription bad habit of promising more than they can deliver promised 8 times as much water than it can deliver Bay Delta Invasive species pollution collapsive levies salt water intrusion Single greatest challenges facing the state Where all main water systems come together and it is in big trouble ANSWER NO we might be running out of money and time but not water Places around world water stress CA maybe in the future Lots of water in mountain snowpack Case studies CA water inherent challenges and current problems What is ailing the oceans 31514 447 PM What counts as a trophy fish in Key West Florida 1950s compared to 198039s different species much smaller don39t compare to the fish caught in 195039s 2000 s pathetic Shiftinq baselines idea that we forget how plentiful and abundant ecosystems used to be 0 Happy with amount at the time Fishinq down the food web overtime ppl fish out the biggest most desired species and result is that we are catching smaller species entirely of less desirable fish Fact that ppl are happy with trophy catches in 195039s and 8039s and 200s even tho now they were not as good as before Global Ocean Surface Ocean currents are mechanisms for transporting heat which in turn shape ocean env Transfer from equator to poles happens in the ocean and atmosphere Smaller scales More complex at smaller scales California Current major current that brings cool water down from north pacific Large Scale Larger pattern that exist on surface and in depth Temp and salidity affect density of water Cold and salt more dense Difference in density drives a global pattern of Thermohaline Conveyor Belt density driven ocean pattern Upwelling Water on the surface gets dragged to the side by winds close to coastlines and result brought water up from the depth to the surface Result cool water with nutrients comes to the surface nutrients sink bring up into sun lit zone sunlit and nutrients create productivity Productivity Amount of living matter produced in an ecosystem Refers to any kind of environment Strongly correlated with patterns of upwelling nutrients to the surface gt create productive systems Marine low availability of nutrients in general 0 Tropics a lot of standing biomass and high rainfall nutrient poor soils diff system and sources of productivity Cyclical changes El Nino Southern Oscillation affects the surface ocean temp bc of winds The myth of inexhaustibility Thought ecosystems were limitless Idea persisted longer for oceans than for terrestrial where ppl live and see the resources are limited Over Fishing 30 have crashed 39 overexploited driven certain species to economic extinction not looking for them anymore Max Sustained Yield Need to figure out what39s the largest harvest of fish you can take without harming the fishery Figure out how many fish you can take and fishery will fix itself and will remain stable so keep taking the same amount of fish 0 Problems forgets idea that there are ecological changes going on all the time ex El Nino Do we have the tools to understand what size pop are and dynamics of pop to get sustain yield Graph 0 Look at total numbers only 3 of wild fishery species that were being underexpoited Hypothesis of over Tragedy of the Commons idea that self interest most profit over exploit common pull resource Problem few examples of it happening Ppl have used oceans as an ex bc enforcement is so weak Tech Determinism is tech driving us Factory fishing boats situation in which a single boat can fish out an entire species in an entire region in one voyage Tech itself doesn39t have will direction an ultimate goal Ppl are using tech tech can be regulated and are Reg Failure simply failed to in act the right laws to manage ocean resources Also failed to enforce laws in the books Lack of international cooperation fail to confirm to political boundaries Need to have an international framework to rule over fisheries Ocean Pollution Comes from point sources and non point sources Coastal Land Uses Dead zones Amount the most productive that tend to be the most exposed to pollution coming from the near by land Picture Nitrogen run off Texas Creates algae blooms gt eats oxygen in the water Anthropogrnic carbon dioxide 2 things that are causing problems in the ocean o 1 Warming atmosphere warms up and then ocean warms up ocean expands and creates sea levels to rise hurts species more adaptive to cool water 0 2 Acidity absorbs CO2 from the atmosphere gt absorbs more than normal CO2 is acidic gt get diff water chemistry Proposed Solutions Pollution Regulation 0 Regulate from Point sources factories and mining sights but difficult to regulate from nonpoint sources International cooperation 0 Convention on the Law of the Sea Aquaculture o Mariculture 0 Figure out a way to produce more fishery resources to feed more ppl and do it in an env friendly way SOLVED o Controversial bc so big global salmon farming Significant detrimental effects of producing so much fish o Risks increased pollution in facilities escapes of fish being held captive Ocean Zoning Relatively new but has been going on for a long time on land 0 Set aside land for natural parks and wilderness areas Set aside marine area is new Not many MPA worldwide Develop networks of protected areas that will promote growth of fish pop MAP A Marine Lift Protection Act Different levels of marine protected areas no fishing is allowed only diving Result ambitious program in the process of being implemented today What should we do about climate change 31514 447 PM Rising Global Temperatures Global temps over time from mid 19 C until 2000 These changes are from natural factors Increasing temps probably bc of human emissions and release of CO2 Keeling Curve Direct measured record of atmospheric CO2 in 1958present day CO2 is usually evenly distrib went to HI and for the past 60 years been measuring CO2 Annual cycle no single straight even cycle Amount of Carbon depends on seasons 0 Summer worlds growing seasons NH has lots of land mass Greenhouse Effect Flux of energy in the lower portion of the atmosphere The way atmosphere contains absorbs and remits energy More carbon in the atmosphere more GHE The problem consequences of putting more carbon poorly understood7 Public Opinion 2011 Ppl are overall convinced that temp are rising But are not sure about what is causing temp rising Actual versus projected CO2 emissions Problems gets worse very quickly faster than scientist thought was possible GRAPH emissions of fossil fuel carbon Black line actual data on emissions Emissions have gone up then brief drop during recession in 08 the jumped up again Actual data shows that emissions are at or exceeding the highest scena o 0 Means that the amount of carbon is outpacing the biggest estimates ofjust a few years ago Problem with climate change is that Human CC threatens to alter the conditions of which temp society is based Involve where we do farming where we live safe to live on the coast where we get our water and how to store it If climate fails to appear in the future then we have an economy political org that is not suited to deal with these changes Thse changes are diverse and complicated IT could result in Options for dealing with climate change by Holdran 1 Suffering do nothing option 2 Adaptation adapt to changes that happen 3 Mitigation try to prevent more CC more money to investigation for mitigation then costs of suffering goes down more money for adaptation less mitigation costs Suffering Business as usual approach do nothing Absorb the costs Assumes that climate change are exaggerated Hurricane Sandy was not the result of climate change Climate change could create conditions that would foster more storms and more stronger storms Have to pay costs GRAPH 19802010 0 Number of severe events over the period of time Natural disasters 0 Number of storms has increased significantly Floods have increased droughts and wildfire have increased 0 Small data set short amount of time natural patterns involved here gt don39t make too make conclusions MAP of drought in the US 0 Crop damages in the Midwest 0 Southwest and CA have dry years gt part of climatehistory Adaptation Surround Manhattan with buffer zone mitigate against severe event more green space and one approach that39s on the table Storm Barrier during those few hours of the peak of the storm hold back water and save areas from flooding Mitigation Over time can reduce it by taking certain measures Stabilization wedges need to reduce fossil fuel emissions by a sig amount to stabilize climate 0 Figure out variety of approaches and decide which one you want to implement at what levels 0 Takes a lot of wedges and effort to stabilize carbon emissions over time Diff levels about how to do mitigation international national state GEOENGINEERING 0 Maybe we should take control of the climate 0 Carbon dioxide removal catch mechanically store biomass plant forest 0 Space based reflectors if you put certain chemicals in the atmosphere you get more reflectivity instead of coming back to earth it goes back into space reduce the GH effect by reduce the energy from coming into the atmosphere in the first place
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