Weeks 1 and 2
Weeks 1 and 2 PAM 2030
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This 4 page Class Notes was uploaded by Eunice on Thursday February 11, 2016. The Class Notes belongs to PAM 2030 at Cornell University taught by Professor Sassler in Spring 2016. Since its upload, it has received 88 views. For similar materials see Population and Public Policy in Political Science at Cornell University.
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Date Created: 02/11/16
PAM 2030 Population and Public Policy Sassler Spring 2016 January 28, 2016 Define demography: the scientific study of human population o Mathematical knowledge of populations; general movements; physical, civil, intellectual and moral state Components of population: ex. o Size o Distribution o Composition o Changes in above variables o Components of change (ex. mortality, fertility, migration) February 2, 2016 US and Global Population Growth: Reasons for concern? iClicker question: define carrying capacity o answer: largest population a land can support with its resources growth o when tracking growth, demographers consider the “doubling time” (time it takes for a population to double in size) o track: fertility mortality (recently slowed by technology, medicine and agriculture) migration (domestic migration looks at incoming and outing populations unlike global migration because aliens aren’t coming in) o historically: the combination of fertility, mortality, migration most of human history: hunter gatherer existence fertility and mortality: high o infant mortality was high so a woman would have many children as a social insurance o slow population growth o carrying capacity was low (if population grew too quickly then there would be a food shortage) ex. deer in Ithaca (low carrying capacity, deer population maintained by artificial variables like plantations installed by humans) agricultural revolution increase in carrying capacity population grew leading to survival challenges o upheavals, plague significant decrease in population due to disease (modern ex. college students and meningitis) o urbanization lead to more disease poor sanitation, living conditions, dangerous working conditions, scarcity of fresh food, pollution, overcrowding, nonexistent sewage and hygiene system modern ex. NYC 1900-1910 Tenement “Death Trap” cities Civilizations peaked Modern era: stabilized population Enlightenment and industrial revolution brought improved technology, application of science and medicine th Further increase in population o 20 century public health improvements Immunizations, disease control, safe food, workplace safety, healthier mothers and babies, water fluoridation, decrease in heart disease and stroke, car safety, family planning, decrease in smoking (just don’t smoke) o Population is growing fast Low mortality, relatively high fertility (although fertility has been decreasing) More births than deaths Births – Deaths = Natural increase/population growth o Hans Rosling In 1963, developed countries had low mortality and relatively low fertility while developing countries had higher mortality and relatively higher fertility As time passes/passed, the trends showed developing countries shift in mortality and fertility rates to match that of developed countries World population will plateau: the adult population is increasing but the children population is stable, so when the children become adults (and the adults have died off in proportion) the population will have plateaued (think toilet paper example) o Now: Europe has slow population increase Middle East still has high population growth This will cause a change in population distribution, shift in power potentially, and increased migration from less to more developed countries Low fertility in developed countries also means an aging population Decrease in economic growth differences in political ideology increase in social welfare programs side note: the younger generation now tends to identify as a minority than the older generation February 4, 2016 counting populations o iClicker: the US census is based on….(answer: usual residency) leads to issues with college students, prisoners DATA o Where to find data? Surveys, censuses Less professionally: google, journals, think tanks, etc o Example: determining life expectancy Let’s check tombstones and record the years engraved Issues: Children, infant deaths Young women deaths (childbirth deaths) Maybe only the wealthy can afford headstones o Census: not all but mostly demographic in material Conducted by the government required by the Constitution for apportionment o Constitution says: who to include in census**, when and how often to conduct the census o **Original instructions include discussion of slaves th (Archaic) (changed by the 14 amendment) Now: everyone is counted (Regardless of citizenship, documentation status, age, ethnicity) being included in the census does not imply voting rights or citizenship o citizens: all born or naturalized (birthright citizenship) issue: “anchor babies” o voting right: age based (given citizenship) citizenship and voting rights are involved in the census question because the census affects representation and congressional district boundaries o concerns with gerrymandering (drawing of state boundaries to retain recumbents) o border states have a higher number of immigrants De facto population: the people on the territory on a given day (the US method) Census counts based on usual residence o Issues: College kids, snow birds (people with multiple homes), Mormon missionaries De jure population: the people who legally belong to a certain area (other countries’ method) Issues: homeless, soldiers, immigrants o Every 10 years: census times see a significant increase in employment Lots of enumerators are needed Determines tax payers, how many marriages, deaths Affects taxing, planning (labor force, education, businesses, health facilities), resource allocation, military Historically: in the Bible, Islam, Roman empire Changes in how the census is conducted reflects social values and focus “modern era” of census starts around late 1700s Determines the number of representatives: fixed at 435 representatives 30,000 people per representative (this changes with population growth) Minimum 1 representative per state Issues with the census Coverage error: people aren’t counted correctly o Not counted o Counted twice (think snow birds) o The difference between the two = net census undercount o Some populations are counted better than others: differential undercount Content error: o Questions are misunderstood or incorrectly answered o Age heaping: rounding ages o Nonresponse problem: (people don’t answer income questions) Imputation: estimating who wasn’t counted mathematically o Not used for apportionment
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