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Introduction 2010 Gubernatoria eection Shift towards republicans and emergence of the Tea Party Except CA did not have the emergence of Tea Party Democrats won seats in CA in 2010While the rest of the nation went republican we went democratic In both gubernatorial and state assembly we went democratic Have we always been like this 1994 Repubicans took back congressRepublicans won control of state house in CA First time since 50 s The last time nation went with republicans so did we1994 1994 gives us a lot to think about as to why CA is different today Prop 87 was about immigration Unauthorized migrants would not be able to attend CA schools Hugey popular it passedPete Wilson R promoted this Kathleen Brown D was against it 2010Jerry Brown D against Meg Whitman R who is best funded politic in state history Meg Whitman had undocumented worker and claimed she didn t know She is looking conservative and it hurts her Part of the reason the political island happened in 2010 is because CA has moved left in a short period on immigration compared to rest of country Why did CA change from being similar to rest of immigration in 94 and dissimilar in 2010 Population shift The divide used to be North D and South R Coastal economy in southern CADefense industryThen after Cold War defense contractors moved to AZ No longer divided north and south East and West Entire western part of CA is liberal with exception of OC We get to participate far more in politicsWhy study California 1 Engaged citizenry 2 Throughout our history our political system has been very messy but we kept growing at rapid rateWe ignore our problems We can t do this anymoreNo one is coming here anymoreOur solutions cannot depend on moving must depend on people who live here ldentify fixes and evidence Introduction 2010 Gubernatoria eection Shift towards republicans and emergence of the Tea Party Except CA did not have the emergence of Tea Party Democrats won seats in CA in 2010While the rest of the nation went republican we went democratic In both gubernatorial and state assembly we went democratic Have we always been like this 1994 Repubicans took back congressRepublicans won control of state house in CA First time since 50 s The last time nation went with republicans so did we1994 1994 gives us a lot to think about as to why CA is different today Prop 87 was about immigration Unauthorized migrants would not be able to attend CA schools Hugey popular it passedPete Wilson R promoted this Kathleen Brown D was against it 2010Jerry Brown D against Meg Whitman R who is best funded politic in state history Meg Whitman had undocumented worker and claimed she didn t know She is looking conservative and it hurts her Part of the reason the political island happened in 2010 is because CA has moved left in a short period on immigration compared to rest of country Why did CA change from being similar to rest of immigration in 94 and dissimilar in 2010 Population shift The divide used to be North D and South R Coastal economy in southern CADefense industryThen after Cold War defense contractors moved to AZ No longer divided north and south East and West Entire western part of CA is liberal with exception of OC We get to participate far more in politicsWhy study California 1 Engaged citizenry 2 Throughout our history our political system has been very messy but we kept growing at rapid rateWe ignore our problems We can t do this anymoreNo one is coming here anymoreOur solutions cannot depend on moving must depend on people who live here ldentify fixes and evidence California ConstitutionsApril 2nd 2014 Why study constitutions Constitutions define the rules of the game The CA Constitution impacts our daily lives more than the national constitution CA constitution is more specific than national constitution Big effort to put legislative language in constitution to prevent problems Madison did not want a bill of rights because he thought it would limit rights Ours starts with a declaration of rights because states don t have innumerated powers This constitution is longer These long clauses are ones that prohibit what the legislature can do Much of constitution was racist Said that we can discriminate against Chinese 860000 people in CA when this constitution was written 152 delegates met for about 6 months to draft this documents 500 amendments throughout the year The people who wrote this did not have a high level of education The California Constitution of 1849 Written by a rogue gathering convened by the millitary Bicameral legislature Multiple executive offices 48 people were elected to represent the states regions They had no shared history or existing rivalriesRESULT Very easy to write constitution No system for taxation or the provision of government services They put limits on what the executive branch could do and how much the legislative branch could borrowNeeded limits so they couldn t act as dictators They did not have any money to improve infrastructure Roads etc We can figure out taxation ater California s Second Constitutional Convention 18781879 Constitution we read Met in an era of institutionalized and formally organized political parties Very different from national constitution convention in 1700s There were not formally organized parties till end of 1790 s during national conven on CA is different because by 1879 they came as parties QUESTIONS Do delegates act as partisans or statesmen Are they interested in making a good government or their parties Answer is not totally obvious Most of issues did not fall along party lines Are voting coalitions a function of partisanship and its attendant organizational structure or preferenceship Are people being pressured by parties or are they voting how they want The Social Transformation of the 1870s Big sweeping changePrevious Constitution was i equipped ndustry dominated by corporations in CA Employing wage earning workersMining was no longer main industry Smallscale farmers struggle High debt burden Prohibitive rates for transporting goods neffective irrigation system Primary burden for financing states One monopoly controlled all railroad lines Little representation from the state Democratic or Republican party Taxes were coming from them not the big corporations Farmers taxed On their land and their mortgages Corporations did not have mortgages so they weren t taxed The parties were interested in reconstruction and the tariff Whie there WAS party competition the parties spoke of national issues The legislature got worried about uprising so they put to call a new constitution Sti unrest Most protracted business oppression in history Rise of the Workingman s Party Led by Dennis Kearney the workingmen demanded City jobs Increased taxation of rich Broader distribution of and Thought to be crazy because they wanted the end of private property Expulsion of Chinese workersTo gain followers Their big goal was to win a majority of seats at the state convention They wanted to write the state constitution Battle Over Delegates Original call for constitutional convention 120 members or 3 from each state senatorial district Revised call for constitutional convention 120 members or 3 from each state senatorial district plus 32 at arge members or 8 from each congressional district The workingmen party was more centered in urban areas Democrats and Republicans knew they wouldn t win areas with rural land 32 at arge members stopped the workingmen from winning A Call for Fusion The San Francisco Alta Republican and Democrats need to call together on a single non partisan ticket to ensure that everyone that opposed Kearney could unite This did not work so well their was lots of fighting but finally they united to get atlarge seats Made up of mostly merchants They were less successful in uniting in local senatorial districts Local Democratic and Republican Delegate Conventions Rural conventions pledged support to policy positions that were closer to the workingmen than San Frans moneyed elite Overhauling the tax system Equalizing assessments Land reforms These rural people look more like workingmen than the elites Election Results Seats elected atlarge Nonpartisans win all 32 atlarge seats Seats elected in state senatorial districts Nonpartisan win 46 seats in state senatorial districts Workingmen win 51 seats in state senatorial districts Remaining 23 seats divided between Democrats and Republicans Party Control at the Constitutional Convention Non partisan delegates from agricultural areas represented constituents who supported many of the proposed Workingmen reforms All nonpartisan wrote biographies of themselves and they thought that they were this superior person Although the Workingmen had not a majority of the membership of the convention they believed that they might take advantage of the lack of organization and unanimity of purpose on the part for the other twothirds and so control the action of the convention Building Unity Among Nonpartisans Adjourned convention early on first day to create a caucus group of people with shared concern Caucus built consensus among coalition members Caucus placed the most conservative nonpartisans in leadership positions Consequently the convention s agenda was controlled by loyal nonpartisans The Workingmen successfully defeated the nonpartisan for secretary of the conven on So nonpartisan were similar to workingmen but they were not workingmen Nonpartisan had tools to argue the state convention President of convention won by 1 vote really conservative What is an atlarge district Two of the workingmen candidates died and they replaced them with two non partisans So nonpartisans were more conservative It was not clear whether these nonpartisans would be able to unite To continue to control conventionThey controlled who could talk and about what Germaine Did the leaders of the Nonpartisan slate succeed in using the caucus system appointments of loyal allies to substantive policy committees and control over the agenda to successfully unite their disparrate delegation YES THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL See results below Some Topics Discussed at the Convention Water rights The eighthour workday The University of California the origin of the Board of Regents Libel Law Eminent domain Women s suffrage Chinese immigration Voting at the 187889 Constitutional Convention This graph looks at how many people vote for or against something Density distributions Workingmen always vote together they never vote with people who want the corporations to control CA There are still people in the middle as well Lots of polarizations Not much overlap between two groups This polarization is similar to what you would observe in today s congress We thought that workingmen would be similar to nonpartisan but they are not Workingmen are more united than nonpartisan We see this because workingmen occupy a small ideological region while nonpartisan occupy a large region What about Democrats and Republicans Why not in graph ln next graphShow the distribution for Democrats and Republicans Observing voting clusters NOT what we expected as far as voting Thought there would be more overlap but there is not Determinant of Candidate Ideology Dependent Variable Delegate ideal point estimate Independent Variable Method of election Atlarge versus senatorial districts Occupation Agricultural occupations suffered from high taxation and prohibitive shipping costs Previous partisanship Democrat or Republican Previous legislative experience Previous legislative experience times previous partisanshipExperience making laws versus partisanship to see if they will have a hard or easy time making laws Demographic variable Manufacturing per capita and farming per capita Very little is predicted from any of the above mentioned things What does this MEAN Variables pick up individual characteristics This does NOTHING for us Delegates did not translate their personal interests into votes They merely followed the lead of their nonpartisan leaders They did not think about their circumstances or other people they stuck to their caucus and what they said to vote for Do parties listen to their constituents NO Public opinion and government action have zero correlationWorks that way now and worked in 1879 Examining Roll Call Records of Nonpartisan Delegates at the 187879 Constitutional Convention Our regression results provide scant evidence that delegates translated their This case is really cool because it answers key question in Political Science because it says party organization matters Many people sided with workingmen but they voted with their coalition anyway Workingmen had met every day over the summer to be united As we see in the graph Nonpartisan just met during the convention and had to quickly create caucus Examining Roll Call Records of Workingmen Delegates at he 187879 Constitutional Convention The people who had participated in state conventions for workingmen s party were more extreme but otherwise it made no difference Despite variation in ideological preferences in each party We do not see people going against coalition Say that two groups did not meet in congress Say that committee chairs were not controlled by conservativeThere would have been more taxation proposals Naturaly causes polarization between workingmen s and nonpartisan coalition 80 were nonpartisan conservative and workingmen liberal Conclusion Agrarian members of the Nonpartisan delgation appeared to subordinate both their personal and constituent s preference demands and closely toe the party line This account suggests the power of Party organizations AND Agenda Control Journaist s like the call the 1879 CA Constitution the worst civic disaster in nation s history What reforms passed Railroad commission was passed Kind of a workingmen s win The powers of the legislature were limited Lobbying was restrictedCrime to use bribery to get vote Chinese were excluded Lecture 2 Direct Democracy in CaliforniaO4O7 Both the people and the state have the opportunity to both propose and write legislation The Political Conditions for Direct Democracy Why were voters willing to change the rules of the political game People got riled up enough to throw the dead beats out and elect someone else Why did Californians start to care enough about the political process to change it The Curly Boss of San Francisco Abe Ruef What is a boss Political machine Organization that governs who gets to run for office or not They got votes through political job favors and rewards Late 19th early 20th century America The machine was managed by the boss he was never politically elected never on the ballot He went around to collect money from people that wanted something out of politics What do you need money for to help people win office Advertising Turning out the vote on behalf on candidates using money he gets from electorate Once they are in office they will act the way the boss wants them to Abe Ruef could elect just about anyone Even popular singer San Fran was one of the most corrupt cities in the nations Ex Cable car in San FranNot an effective way to move around cable cars are right in middle of street Superior alternatives subway the L the guys that want the cable cars give Abe lots of money and the cable cars stay SYMBOL of how corrupt the city was at beginning of century Progressive movement wanted to rid CA of corruption in CA Who were the Progressives Typically centrists White Middle cass Protestants not catholics Professionals Centerright political preferences Outside of party politics They were doctors lawyers academics small business owners They look at politics and see it is run by this spoils system Whoever wins is in control of government resources and he then distributes it to the people that helped him They didn t like thisThey wanted to bring in scientific political processes They set up tons of special investigative commissions across state ReformerAnyone who wants to change the rules of political game Those changes we might judge as good or bad morally WHY do people want to change the rules of the game The Progressives were no different than other reformers in wanted to change the rules of the game WERE they ambitious office seekers Did they want a career in politics NO THEY DlDN T They wanted to keep their professions Say in government without moving to SacramentoDIRECT DEMOCRACY Create a set of rules where citizens can bypass their representatives Progressive Governor Hiram Johnson The Political Geography of the Progressive Movement 26 states adopt the initiative A little more than half the state adopt the initiative Why do the states in the west adopt the initiative but the states in the east do not Less established groups Poitica institutions are more new Experimenting is widespreadEasier to change existing political institutions in west because they were young and not mature Corruption httpwwwiandrinstituteorgstatewide iamprhtm Weaker linkages in west between political leaders and public Similar demographicsProgressives are professionals and they are almost entirely Protestant They want to hand power to people like them They demanded power for the people in states where there were very few Catholics Why only Catholics Why not blacks Why not asians Because blacks and asians could not vote anyway Catholics were predominantly in the east coast that s where the votes came in On west coast there weren t as many Catholics Progressives won t get the policies they want from the people with states with lots of Catholics We can t simply celebrate the Progressives as good guys for giving us Direct Democracy Because they were still sef interestedOnly passed initiatives in states where it was favorable to them CaliforniaShould be less likely in CA because we have a small population of Catholic MexicanAmericans SoA literacy test passed so this wasn t an issue Why don t Catholics want the initiatives Needed a Hirim Johnson so come out and say that we needed something to solve this Middle class and Protestants were related Direct DemocracyCalifornia Style Threshold for qualification is low Successful gains are insulated from legislative modification 26 states have direct democracy but CA has direct democracy on steroids ln CA the percentage of voters you needs to sign a petition are much smaller than the rest of the country easier in CA than elsewhere An initiative approved my CA voters is law of the land unless the courts rule it as unconstitutional or the voters pass another initiative nullify it Since initiatives are more valuable in CA and more valuable than legislation ten initiatives every election cycle Other states have it every 5 years A lot more of them are written Three types of Propositions Citizen initiativeNew law proposed by citizens can be written by citizens can hire group of lawyers that write initiative then you go qualify and if it wins it is law of land30 pass Most fail Petition ReferendumPropose petition when enough sigs are collected to qualify for ballot the law is held from being put into effect until vote Prop 23 2010Failed effort to overturn assembly bill Prop 72 2004Successfully overturned CA universal health care bill Compulsory ReferendumWhen legislature wants to do BIG policy changes they are required to check with the people first This type of prop requres support of at least two thirds of assembly and state senate Needs BICAMERAL support and BIPARTISAN support This type of consensus is really hard to achieve Hard to get two parts of legislature to agree on anything If things to get agreed on people are not that riled up about it They pass quite oftenThree out of four times Citizen initiatives are much more contentious Laws that are actively opposed by legisature The typical initiative campaign spends 8 million vs 300000 in compulsory Most pass The Mechanics of the Citizen Initiative CirculationIdea and 200 dollars Signature gathering 150 days to get signatures 8 o If you re collecting signatures are you just going to collect the minimum NOMany signatures will be fake Only 2 of 3 will be real Simple majoritySimple majority of electorate to back what you re doing Whether it s any of the three things No matter what you just need 50 plus one It is also the same whether the initiative is on the ballot in the primary election To qualify for the ballot the typical initiative campaign spends 2 million Must pay people to go and gather signatures People get paid 13 dollars per signature In order to have access to ballot you must be rich Do grassroots campaigns have access to the ballot NO The modern era of direct democracy started with prop 13 and we have not seen a single initiative make it to the balance without paid signature gatherers They were not getting signatures quick enough What do good signature gatherers do They say that they don t need to support the initiativesJust put it on the ballot Campaign Expenditures 2012 Ballot initiatives477 million Candidates 137 million Why do people spend so much money on initiative campaigns Prop 5 1986Legalize gaming on lands in CA FOR lndians AGAINSTLas Vegas Was 90 million a good investment YES Political scientists have found that for ever 100000 dollars you spend on advertising you get 1 Did the Progressives Achieve their goal Pros and cons of whether direct democracy is a good idea Direct Democracy in California The Recall You can recall a governor in 19 states Its been used 3 timesDakotas CA Wisconsin The constitution does not say much about the recall WHEN should we take extraordinary means to boot someone from office Doris AllenModerate Republican Recalled in 1985 because she was moderate From OC Cypress She served when there weren t many women Republican in CA legislator Democrats loved Willie Brown he was always speaker Then 1984 Americans decided they like republicans more they get a legislative majority Doris AllenAn old moderate And new republican revolutions didn t like her Doris Allen meets up with Willie Brown and they cut a deal He says vote with us we ll elect you speaker and we ll create a new position called Speaker of the Assembly Republicans were not happy She says I did not Commit a crime all I did was vote my conscience and did what I thought was best Republicans said she was going against what the constituents want All her copartisans and former friends called her emotionally disturbed What was her crimeNot voting with her party It is whatever Californians say it is Where does the Recall come from The Progressives Governor Hiram Johnson s constitutional amendants of 1911 Initiative ReferendumAllows voters to throw out legislative statutes RecallAllows voters to throw out someone before the election Designed to combat graft and corruption The idea was that the recall was specifically to remove corrupt politicians if we believe the rhetoric of the progressives Why must voters throw people out immediately rather than waiting Because voters won t remember a scandal two years later What does the constitution say about Recall Sufficiency of reason for recall is not reviewabe The Progressives did not write their intentions in the constitution So the constitution does not have anything definition wise about recall What reason did the Progressives do this for A vague statement gives Progressives more control There have been many successful recalls in CA history 1913 11914 1995 19952003 Recalls can come in two varieties Wisconsin Republicans recall democrats Partisan Warfare trying to gain power Second case Civil warDoris Allen Fighting within party Compare to Federal Constitution Initial people did not like direct democracy They said that the person in the position can be removed for treason and other high crimes It is HARD to impeach The Mechanics of the Recall Process Very hard to recall a GOVERNOR Not a person of the assembly You need petition signed by 12 of electorate The electorate is based on people who showed up to the last gubernatorial election What does it mean to say CA electorate The people who showed up in last gubernatorial electorate 2003 the hurdle was a little easier because not many people showed up to the 2002 elections because both candidates sucked Compared to initiatives or referendumsTHlS IS HIGH It is still a huge hurdle 12 can t come from one area 1 of the electorate in 5 counties 1 of the voters in the previous gubernatorial election in 5 counties The reason to suggest that is that support is widespread To recall STATE LEGlSLATOR In their district you need 20 of the people of the people who vote in the last state assembly Easier in CA than it is in other statesRelatively Constitution does not specify what is a recallable offense Lowest signature threshold 12 Longer time frame for gathering signatures 160 days One of the fun things about this Gray Davis case is that no one knew what the law was until the law was in process Given a ballot with yes or no do you want to recall Gray Davis Then asked who you would want to replace him A simple majority had to say yes 50 plus 1 Need plurality of the vote on the replacement ballotPerson with the most votes doesn t need to be half A new governor could hold a smaller share of acceptance than old governor What does it take to get on the ballot 1 3500 2 65 signatures What happened in 2003 BustamonteRecall no Bustamonte yes How did the recall qualify for the ballot Need 900000 signatures to qualify for ballot Only got 100000 Why did Darrel lssa fund the signature drive He wanted to be governor He thought we d all say thank you lssa for getting this on the ballot But we didn t like him Then Arnold joined Summer 2003Signatures need to qualify for balot Within 6080 days you must have recall election Was in year and month when people don t typically go to polls In 2000 CA passed Prop 34 which limited campaigning expenditures to 20000 Nonetheess they spent a lot anyway Campaign expenditures 80 million Campaign length 77 days They were both rich so they spent their own money Wealthy person and you don t want to run for office you can set up an independent campaign supporting someone but cannot coordinate with her Gray Davis wasn t on the ballot as a candidate only as initiative Election Returns 55 of people favored the recal So it passed Replacement Schwarzenegger486 Bustamante 315 McClintock134 We might want to ask where did the support for the recall come from A lot of democrats did not support himThey never liked him The fact that Republicans start off unsure and they end in 90 range in support for recall Republicans jumped to support the recall when Arnold announced he was running Arnold s election result is better than his poll prediction Arnold and Bustamante doing better than poll results everyone else worse DUVERGER S LAW People begin to stop supporting the others and their support goes to either Arnold or Bustamante because they want to be able to vote for the winner When you have single member districts or plurality acting strategically voters are reluctant to waste their votes on week candidates that have no chance of winning on election day it comes down to two people In 2003 Democrats held 48 seats in the state legislature In 23 of those districts a majority of voters favored the recall Did the California legislature become more Republican NO they did not WHYSee graph Black dots are assembly mens ideological positions before white are after the recall Democrats move more to the right and center RepublicansMove to the center as wellMajority Normally there is D and R 2002 In this election there was D R1 and R2 Peope voted for more moderate Mandate for moderation from constituents from members of both parties TopTwo Primary Top two primary amp Citizen redistricting Point of both of these reforms were designed to increase moderation in candidates Today we are getting things done because we are controlled by one party Today we will notice that reformers have said increased polarization is the problem Two causes of Problems Partisan primariesPeople are being elected with a small number of people and those people are very extreme Moderate candidates don t have a chance Safe districts are second problemIf there are more of one party in a district and they are guaranteed to win there is no incentive to appeal to democrats No clear evidence favoring any of these hypotheses Before we accept polarization as the problem we need to ask is it a PROBLEM Polarization may not be a problem if voters are polarized too If electorate is as extreme as candidates then they are being represented well Survey GraphLegislator and voter comparison Legislation is far more polarized The average voter is relatively lower NO we did not get moderation MASKETI don t have enough data to tell you listen to recording Proposition 14Voter nomination primary election Still have voters selecting who is going to be on general election ballot All voters receive the same list of candidates Voters participate in voting for candidates from all parties Candidates no longer list their party Applies to pretty much all the offices we care about in CA State assembly state senator governor Major rules change If you are a moderate democratic you are more likely to get more votes Candidates will appeal to independents that couldn t participate in closed direct primaries While the direct primary and the top two primary might seem different They are similar because parties cannot just pick candidates the task is delegated to voters Both cases require party leaders to influence the way voters make decisions in the direct primary How to party leaders influence How do endorsements work Party leaders communicating their preferences about who should win to votes We need to show that they can determine who wins and who loses How do we know that endorsements work It could work two ways 1 Candidate centeredThe case where party endorsements don t matter because it is the candidates own skills and personal qualities that allow them to win the primary In candidate centered world perhaps they always endorse the winner but in actuality it may just be the candidate who is winning When parties make demands they don t work 2 Partycentered world Endorsements actually work to win a competitive primary 3 Why do endorsements work Endorsements provide voters with informationMakes it easier for them to vote for who they want with not a lot of effort It gives them a CUE that political leaders who share their interests will do a better job representing them Electoral coordination We all want a good party to win so they go with the best for the pany Lastly could just tell partisans who party leaders are running for and it ll be good enough for a lot of people Candidates who receive a party endorsement should receive a higher vote relative to those who did not receive an endorsement Which voters are more likely to use the endorsements The more you are able to say I am a democrat or republican the more likely you are to pick up on an endorsement cue As a strong partisan you will feel the need to be linked to your party Any partisan is more likely to use their partisan endorsement than the other HOW do endorsements work First county central committees meet They could endorse a local candidate and if they 70 or more of this committee they would get endorsement if they don t get this They could get voted for in state central committee by get 50 for incumbent or 60 for nonincumbent in the state central committee Candidates can use advertising with an endorsement Survey Experiment Sample Ballot 1 Educator and democrat named Greg Johnson 2 Business owner and democrat named Sam Guthrie 3 Business owner and republican named David Robertson One third of voters were told Greg go endorsement One third were told that Sam got endorsement One third were told that David got no endorsement When Greg got endorsement he won 69 of vote when no endorsement he got 59 Endorsement moves more votes when you get more closely affiliated with the party The impact is more consequential with people that closely affiliate to the party Make sure that we observe this report It could be that the informational signal led to more campaign donations which could lead to more votes NATURAL EXPERIMENT Using data from 2012 Democratic state and community central committee meetings and voting results Evaluate the effect of that treatment of vote share Compare candidates to those who barely won an endorsement to those who barely lost an endorsement because they are pretty similar Candidates clustered around barely making it are really similar What we are doing are pulling out hopeless and strong candidates and only looking at the threshold people Those who barely win the endorsement should do better in primary than people who barely lose it GRAPHCandidates who win endorsement do better than those that did not red and green graph Two very different regression linesDiscontinuityYou cannot just make one regression line Gap is 15 Bigger effect than the one we saw in the survey experiment Does 15 matter Yes in lots of competitive top two primaries Have we really captured the effect of an endorsement Perhaps incumbents are just better at manipulating the whole process They can get endorsements to come their way We may not be seeing effects of endorsements only incumbency 80 we look at graph without incumbents and we see the same pattern Perhaps party leaders are just attaching endorsement to the candidates who raise most money 80 we look at graph again and we question whether there is a difference between amount of money made by incumbents prior to the endorsement vote The graph measures how much money the candidates had raised before the endorsement vote Did people who won the endorsement raise more money than people who did notNO Statistically indistinguishable number Party elites do not seem to be attaching their label to the person who won the most money Money raised after endorsement vote Do endorse candidates end up raising more moneyNO Endorsements do NOT win by helping you win more money In both tests we saw that endorsement brings more vote share to a candidate by 1015 Most influential to STRONG partisans These endorsements work through informational and nonfundraising campaign effects WHY haven t CA legislators been moderating under top two primary BECAUSE to win an endorsement you please state or county central committee and to get that endorsement you RUN TO EXTREMES SO you get a ballot full of extreme candidates not the moderation that was promised MIDTERM REVIEW Used to have north and south in CA now we have east and west About whether the top two primary induces moderationAnswer is no Know arguments and main points of authors How did crossfiling effect legislative partisanship DID effect legislative partisanship we saw the emergence of moderate legislators Once there are no party labels on the ballot and you can enter to win both primaries the incentive is to have a moderate record that could win support from both republicans and democrats SO was crossfiling more effective than top two primary EXPLAIN What do we want to know about constitutional convention Know initial call for revised delegate rues Said there should be 32 at large candidates At large The city vote would be diluted and that is where the working men were by having at large elections Broadens geographical area and makes it hard for radical party to win When you put a big city into a quarter of CA it makes it hard for radicals to win WHO are the groups that are struggling for control Why did we look at debates on the floor of constitutional conclusion They acted as partisans not statesmen Go back to slide and figure out how this happened 109 Working men who had interests that were similar with any democrats and republicans Did they vote together or not Why might endorsements matter Too general Know how they work Asking general questions is more helpful By what means do endorsements matter Cue electoral coordination information Among what types of voters do endorsements work How do we know they matterIf we give info signal alone and no real environment their vote share increases And once we put it in a real environment they still do better What is the geographical distribution of party preferences in CA West Democrat East Repubican How did the political distribution change NampS to EampW How do you control delegates at a constitutional convention What are steps to get an initiative on the ballot READING Know the rules of the game Effects of those rules Anytime you are introduced to a rule of how politics works we want to know those rules HOW do gubernatorial replacement candidates get their name on the ballot KNOW about referenedums Petition referendum and compulsory referendum Citizen initiative Recall ballotHow to get on it and how to get a recall ballot Is there one type of citizen initiativeOne set of signatures Rules for changing statute and constitution To change constitution 8 o of electorate of people who showed up to last gubernatorial election To change statue5 of electorate of people who showed up to last gubernatorial election Different electorate we are talking about when we are talking about governor and assemblymen Citizen initiatives pass more frequently than compulsory referendum We hate legislation and they write compulsory referendums Mechanics behind citizen initiative Mechanics for placing initiative on the ballot How is CA different Direct democracy 26 states have initiative 18 or 19 have recall In general it is easier to have a recall or initiative on ballot for CA 12 here where its 25 in other states No solid reason needed to be recalled Easier to use direct democracy here The initiatives are very hard to change LOOK UP We have a more valuable initiative because the legislature cannot amend itthey can amend it in other states lnitiative is law unless either supreme court deems it unjust OR another initiative passes that supersedes it It is harder to pass initiaves in other states so they have initiatives every five years We have ten on one ballot If you think direct democracy is bad you must know how to change the rules KNOW ABOUT CROSSFILINGVoter coordination problem was too difficult without party labels on the ballot Name at least three characteristics of the people behind the progressive movement Why did progressives push the initiative in CA but not NY Only passed in states where they like the electorate Elections in CA Redistricting 421 Why do we have to redraw our legislative districts The Supreme Court in the 60s passed three decisions these together say that in state legislative and federal congressional districts have to be redrawn after every census so the population is about the same Before this governors legislators or the people would draw the lines Typically it was legislator If one party controls the legislature and one controls the governorship and they cannot agree and the court steps in and picks one of the new plans But in CA the people can get involved too with a petition referendum The courts are always to some extent involved What is the citizen s redistricting commission It took the power away from political office holders for drawing lines Consisted of 14 registered voters anyone could apply as long as you were not a registered lobbyist as long as you hadn t given money to candidates or worked for a candidate or been a candidate The pool to pick made sure that any party did not have a particular advantage Had to maximize districts compactness Had to reserve integrity of government Constraint Could not look at party registration figures could not look where the incumbent lived The plans they produced ended up passing Republicans attacked these plans entertainingly It was entertainingly because they supported it in the first place because they thought they d get a better deal and they really didn t Cogan and McGee want to see whether this commission achieved their goals What did the initiatives ask forDistricts that were more compact didn t want it to cut all the way down coast of CA more square Democrats and Republicans in 2000 said they re all buddies Drew this kind of district Keep communities of interest together How can you tell interest Who knows What is the relationship between compactness and communities of interest Are nonsquare districts something that keeps people together of similar interest Did the Citizens Redistricting Commission make districts more compact Yes they achieved this goal got more square districts North Carolina Example Long strange looking district They said it was the only way they could have a district majority African American Supreme Court shut it down How did minority groups fare under the plan created by the Citizens Redistricting Commission The Iatinos and other minorities got more districts not as many as they wanted but they got some more Supporters of Prop 11 argue lf legislators don t have to compete to get reelected they have no accountability to voters While this isn t explicitly stated it is written into the rules The incumbent living rule was explicitly designed Why do they want competitive districtsThought it would yield more moderate officeholders in a SAFE district the legislator is extreme because he will win no matter what he can ignore the median voter How do we know that the prop 11 proponents are right How do we know more competitive districts will attune politicians to voter needs In competitive district we should see legislator be closer to median voter than safe districts If citizen s redistricting commission bring legislators that are more tuned in we should see its effects concentrated in competitive districts By creating more competitive districts citizen s redistricting plans should improve politician and voter congruence from 2010 to 2012 What do we see in the graph Median voter is black dot Typical voter is a moderate PolarizedTend to be on opposite sides of median voter The distance in most districts is quite large If anything we see MORE polarization The new rules led to the decline of the least conservative republicans republicans get more extreme How did the major political parties fare under the new plan The democrats did better The past decade CA had been trending towards the democrats The citizen s redistricting commission did not give democrats independent advantage success for commission On all the commission s dimensions that they were supposed to deliver they did So they hit all the explicitly written goals of the commission but not the implied Why did moderation not happen 1 Candidates may be playing to the base What do you need to win an election in a competitive districtA ton of money In order to run the campaign you have to run to extremes If you are moderate it would not be your time and effort to run in a competitive district because no one will give you lots of money so you don t have a very good chance 2 Not enough independent voters Can tell people why cross over voting may be good but cannot make people independents 3 Moderation will come Take advantage of the fact that some elections have incumbents and some do not but not much different Moderation still may come if we get different types of candidates The reformers said for the commission said we will see moderation in competitive districts Maybe we don t have enough competitive districts Not many competitive districts popped up 13 competitive districts Maybe this leads us to not see moderation if they were all competitive maybe we would see moderation If we created more competitive districts we would not be confident that anything would change WHY NOTThe distance between the median voter and the district s legislator is the same in competitive districts as it is in safe districts TEST QUESTION Why don t we have a ton of competitive districts under the new plan Is it something they could ve done easilyNO If you want compactness you cannot make competitive districts easily If you want to create a competitive district in LA it will probably follow Wilshire all the way to inland which would not follow compactness Miller article We have already self segregated ourselves into liberal and conservative communities lF we want compactness THEN no competitive districts SELFSEGREGATION Look at districts where the candidates of the same party ran in the election and see which is the moderate and which is the extremists and see how often they win It was 5050 WHY is it like this Why are they not picking a moderate Median voter is centrist so why would the most centrist not win every time Voters may only know about extremist because there is more advertising about them Broader campaign effects by the party liking the extremists better ACTUALLYMost people get to the polls and see two of the same party and they end up saying those two are exactly the same so the vote gets split 5050 CA 24th Congressional District Two republicans in the race Madonado Repubican Most famous moderate in CA ntroduced by Arnold Had a reputation of crossing over Running against a tea party backed republican Voters placed those two candidates in exactly the same ideological position This wasn t for Maldonado not trying In order for top two primary to work voters need to be educated but they are not It needs to satisfy a condition that voters can figure out who the moderate is but they just cannot do that Going back to moderation will come The voters need to know more Maybe it just takes time nterest groups will learn to run successful campaigns from the center We don t have any data yet for the voting records in the legislature on the new people voted in the top two primary Perhaps politicians will mistakenly think that voters like centrists under the top two primary Figure out how to increase voter s info about who the moderates are In a more pessimistic view Peope looked at study about how open primaries work and how polarization works and they found no results no correlation When independents were allowed to vote in primaries there was even more polarization When top two primary came about parties got a lot more serious about endorsements and those endorsements decided primary elections Even with the top two primary and districts drawn by citizens There is still polarization and the intended reforms did not pan out WHO won top two primary for governorFinal exam question Citizen or Professional An Experiment in Legislative Organization57 The Father of Professionalism in CA Changed the way the legislature worked Jesse UnruhMade legislature as a whole a lot more powerful The guy that totally changed CA government to have a professional legislature He lost his first two elections and then became the most powerful man in CA for a decade Quickly builds this reputation strong candidate good at fundraising lots of expertise on policy Issues Unruh made the speakership the most important office in Sacramento even more powerful than the Governor because he wants to be the most powerful it help subsequent speakers Before Unruh whose controlling the CA legislature Abe RuefBossesThey work fulltime in realm of politics lots of financial resources can employ lobbyists who are full time When Unruh comes to state house it is a part time job The Constitution said our convention could last no more than 60 days then legislators had to go home not paid a lot He did not have staff to help him out legislators weren t that powerful when Unruh comes He wants to exercise a lot of power he realizes it is not enough to provide only institution of speaker with a lot of resources also legislature Gets rid of constitutional limit that says sessions can last no longer than 60 daysNeed full time sessions Gets rid of constitutional limit on legislators salaries To change he had to revise the constitution and it needed two thirds of senate and two thirds of assembly menSo he wrote prop 1A and said above things Legislature had power to bargain with governor and lobbyists Made our legislature in 1966 look a lot less like typical legislature and more like national congress These changes spread to more states Our legislators are top eight in nation What was the CA Legislature like before Jesse Unruh s Service Unruh sees Arthur SamishSecret boss of SacramentoPinnacle of corruption Dominated the legislature in CA in 40 s and 50 sSo he is a bossHe called himself the secret bossNever elected to political office Acording to Samish he was the most influential person in Sacramento in 1940 s Crossfiling eraParties were weak and Samish was running things He was a lobbyist that represented interests that would make a whole lot of money HorseracingReason for Hollywood Park Chemical manufacturers and transportation projects were represented by him Anything that was proposed in legislature against Samish was stopped Increase regulation on chemical manufacturingSamish would step in All these proposals positive or negative Samish delivered votes Interest groups knew he was affectiveHe was their goto man So he spends 3 years in federal prison because people ended up not liking him What Resources does a lobbyist have In these days legislators would get bribed by SamishWith hotel food alcohol and prostitutes He could do this because there were no gift limits How Does Artie Samish Turn money from interest groups into favorable votes Candidates that receive money from interest group tend to do what those interest groups want HowWe see this thing happening two modles 1 Vote Buying Model Boss collects donations distributes those donations to candidates candidates CHANGE their vote FBI went into offices in capital building and said I will give you 20000 donation if you make my bill pass I want shrimp from Stockton the people that accepted went to prison Inside capital building you cannot talk about campaign contributions and you can f talk about what you are going to do with contributions 2 Matchmaker Mode Boss collects donations distributes those donations to candidates that agree with interest group candidates favorable to interest groups win office Finds out who has similar interests and gives money to themNo one is being bribed or switching their posmon The legislators who receive money are voting for low taxes because they already believe that is what their should be They are very clear with their positions no one is being fooled They vote exactly the way the donors want them to Samish is merely a match maker Key point is for us to see correlation between receiving donation and voting in favor of interest group May NOT be a result of people switching their vote MOST evidence comes from this model Here and there number one does happen but it is just less of a problem How do you feel about Arthur Samish s matchmaker model Maybe only certain people are getting represented who gets left out People who don f have money Supreme Court says that there are some interest group positions that are poorer than others but there is no state interest behind leveling the playing field The Supreme Court is probably a more general view Unruh s Plan to Level the Playing Field in Sacramento The Speaker not a boss should receive and distribute campaign funds The legislature should have staff to reduce the informational advantage of the exec branch Governors were previously figure heads but became more powerful in 1920s and 30s Point is governor is a full time job and stays in Sacramento he controls the exec branch Can draw on exec agencies about how stuff works Unruh says in America we believe in balance of powers and the legislative branch cannot deal with balance of powers while exec has all these powers Proposition 1A 1966 Professionalizes the Legislature Legislature determines its calendar and salary Endorsed by gubernatorial candidates Pat Brown and Ronald Regan What is Legislative Professionalism It had three things 1 More staff and expert staff people with professional background Open legislature up so that anyone can do if 2 Long sessions Meet for 120 days throughout year 34 days in Sacramento and rest of time in district Throughout most of year they work long hours 7 days a week 3 FullTime Salary95000year highest paid legislature in nation People hate this they are shocked we are paying them so much But what do you get if you pay legislators lessYou get people of wealth People with flexible careers Ranchers professors lawyers If you pay almost nothing you don t get the normal people in legislature because they don t have time to take off work and have no salary How did Speaker Unruh turn money into votes Campaign contributionsNo limits on donations He would receive money then relocate it to othersWon loyalty Unruh wanted to be the new Samish He isn t bribing he is convincing Beyond campaign donations he could give people certain offices or committee chairs or expertise or parking spots or few extra staff members Story is pretty similar to Samish Is this situation any better Kind ofHe is elected It seems marginally better because if Unruh does something that his people don t like then he can be booted out of office Instead of being nonelected distributing goodies at least he s elected Should our legislature be staffed with normal citizens or professionals CA really revives this longstanding debate because of Unruh Do we want them to be normal people nurses and teachers Or do we want them to be professional people As political scientists you can notice effects of different methods Citizen legislaturesParttime job normal people with real jobs everyone has opportunity to serveIn citizen ones you meet for month a year Theses people do not have staffs the session can t last long Usually look at government recommendation Different in Sacramento experts and analyzation by committee separate from exec branch You DONT have that in citizen legislature Governor decides in citizen In Hybrid legislature you get a few staff members and get paid a little more Somewhat professional fulltime job Outside of CA20000 BUT if you pay legislators less you get people of wealth QUESTON In DEFENSE of Professionalism Nelson Polsby says there are two types of legislatures and in America we value the Professional legislature because there are TRANSFORMATIVE and RUBBER STAMPS Professional are transformative Lobbyists are less powerful Rubber stamp legislatures do what other people want them to whether it is lobbyists or exec Legislative and executive branches are coequal In professional legislature they do a lot more than citizen legislature or parliamentary rubber stamps Professionalism allows legislature to be more transformative because they have more staff and access to info Citizen legislatures have less time and less info and just go for what governor says When Unruh brings in a professional staff the Lobbyists become less influential Lots of big bills regarding water transportation other issues after Unruh were written by professionals They like careerismMakes legislature and exec coequal A CRITIQUE of Legislative Professionalism Constituent service insulates legislators from electoral pressures Interest groups are still powerful Careerism When you didn t have a ton of resources you didn t spend a lot of time in office You didn t have staff members what do constituent service doGets them reelected That concerns these new government groupsThese people are getting reelected with the staff by providing constituent service The people that level this critique don t have evidence for this Their argument says having lots of staff insulates you from electoral Careerism is also a concern for opponents of professionalismIf you are running for reelection all of a sudden you care a lot more about campaign issues You care a lot more about keeping your job so working very hard to get campaign donations so that may influence you a lot Lastly concern that some people think careerism is less democratic because you no longer have normal people Good thing for democracy if the people in legislature still think of themselves as regular citizens with same concerns The people who don t like legislative professionalism are people like in Ancient Athens Up to what we want to put our values on Term Limits Nelson PolsbyUS BerkeleyFamousProduce lots of graduate students His critique of Proposition 140 1990 Legislature will lack policy expertiseWhen we start sending careerists OUT of office we will send away people who know how to get things done Term limits will break the electoral link between legislators and voters So if you tell a legislator that they can t get reelected they have no incentive to do a good jobMust have reelection incentive Advantages the executive branch Reformer s Goals They hoped that term limits would achieve several goals They wanted legislators to represent a larger mix of people Match the Demographics of CA provide opportunities for women and minorities Fewer career politicians voting for right side because they were not concerned about getting reelected They would be freed from the influence of lobbyists More able to vote their conscience Increase legislator autonomy Did Reformers Achieve their Goals 1996First time the legislator is banned So we look at after 1996 Was there a change and can it be attributed to prop 140 BUT 1992 there was a large spike in women Not the expected 1996 Why year of the woman in 1992 It is nationwide states with and without term limits Redistricting opened up a lot of new seats in 1991 and there were no incumbents so females could potentially win They received more resources as well In 19968 women as opposed to 12 The timing of the increase in female legislation increase was not related to term limits There still could be a year of the women spike but you need a bigger one in 1996 ALSO graph of Racial and ethnic composition of CA AssemblyLatino increase went up by 6 from 1994 to 1996 In same state with same demographic trend we have a control group with no treatment and a group with treatment Used federal government to test this because they had no term limits Term limits doubled the amount of Latinos serving in the congress This did not work to turning us back to citizen legislature The vast majority of assembly members and senators had been local office holders and people in SacramentoThe same people already highly engaged in CA politics were running Next graph the percentage of people in the senate that had served in the assembly Once term limits are enacted nearly every senator has served in the assembly Maybe you re getting somewhat newer people not involved that much in the assembly but you re getting a lot of professional people in the senate How did members adapt to life under term limits New legislators have to learn really fast and take responsibility from day on Whether or not they are more or less effective is something we can measure They have to get work done without strong ties to other legislators The ability to have one s bills passed Graph Compare 1986 and 1996 If we believe the political column of Sacramento Bee the new people have it really hard they have to learn really fast Back to measuringCompare freshmen legislators in 1986 when there were no term limits and freshmen legislators in 1996 Comparable because economic circumstances were fairly comparable Look at percentage of bills passed that were proposed and got passed in each term The only difference is term limits The Y is the average percent of bills passed Are legislators ineffective at passing bills after term limits NO they are about the same So the average legislative output of new members in no different before or after term limits Other observations So the third term dropped bigger slump in average in last term Because they can t run anymore They must find new job so they focus on that too Term limits breaks the electoral link once you have been term limited out Have term limits altered the role of committees in Sacramento Did term limits change the way in which policy was crafted Look at committees that s how policy was shaped Have term limits changed committees in Sacramento Increase in senate and decrease in assembly member So committee chairs have reduced experience Does that lead to a change in legislative outcomes One way to see if they are doing their job is to see if they are killing bad bills The percentage of assembly bills that die in committee go from 363 before term limits and 233 after term limits WHAT ARE COMMlTTEES Perhaps inexperienced members don t know what bad bills look like Since term limits are enacted fewer bills are killedDecline in quality of legislative process Objective Measures of Legislative Quality Effects Two nice objective measures of legislative quality BreadthWelfare code and prison code changes many different things DetailThe length of the billGreat easy measures of legislative quality We can use these measures in CA Term limit seems to do alright on this measure Term limits does not seem to have a negative impact here Without term limits these numbers would be higher than they are Voters have come to like term limits but they do have negative effects Less policy expertise less memory Failing to kill bad legislation Maintain a legislature that looks like CA Provide incentives for the development of policy expertise An effort to keep the good stuff about limits Have CA assembly map the demographics of our state but get rid of the bad part which makes assembly lack expertise SO PROP 28 A rep can serve for a maximum of 12 years in the CA legislature Cannot test it yet but people hope that legislators will stay in one chamber throughout the duration of their career more experience in committee chairs and more gatekeeping of finding and killing bad bills Under prop 140 the executive became a lot more powerful and lots of people did not like that Do Campaigns Matter In California Case Study Open Contest for the Republicans Unusual thing in gubernatorial elections in CA it was an open race Many people could have won it no incumbent Both parties had a broad array of candidates Meg WhitmanFormer CEO of Ebay Steve Poizner Longer list of democratsJohn Garamendi Bill Lockyer Jack O Conne Jerry Brown Antonio Villaraigosa Gavin Newsom Most CA didn t know many of the democrat candidates except Jerry Brown he intimidated everyone out of the race before he announced his campaign formally Jerry Brown 1938Born 1970Elected Secretary of State 19741978 Elected Governor Wilderness 19982002 Elected Mayor of Oakland 2006 Elected Attorney General Motivating Questions Can Republicans win a statewide race Do campaigns matter in BLUE California Does the democratic party have an insurmountable advantage How can they win a statewide race in CA If Democrats do in fact dominate statewide races then is it worth it to republicans to spend money on campaigns Do Democrats hold insurmountable advantage in statewide races Republican registration is at an alltime low For two decades Democrats have won nearly all statewide offices Republicans now have no statewide offices CA Republicans did not benefit from the national wave toward the Republican Party in 2010 Outside of CA Republicans won really big in 2010 Jerry Brown won with over a million votes to share What Happened to RED California Has CA always been a reliable blue CA No not necessarilyWe liked Republicans a lot throughout 19th and 20th century In presidential elections before Clinton 1992 we voted Republican If anything we were reliably red in the past In 90 s state s partisan preferences undergo change Why was Arnold not a great candidate to pop up and support Republicans He was prochoice Maybe he doesn t satisfy San Francisco liberals but relative to regular republican he was an activist We were in good economic times at the timeNo reason to throw out this moderate that seems to be presiding over functioning economy Why so weakConsistent democrat victory over democratic victory Changing demographics Hinders republicans as well 201038 of CA population was latinoVS 16 nationally 75 of CA latinos are democrat Declining number of registered republicans growing number of latinos Will Republican s Ever Win another Governor s Race in CA Do campaigns matter It wasn t obvious through campaign that Jerry Brown was going to be the winner It was not until October of 2010 that he pulled forward immensely General Lessons About Campaigns Most campaign effects are small Campaigns remind voters of their political identities Can small campaign effects matter Often more decisive in presidential and gubernatorial elections Campaigns awaken voters and remind them how they relate to politics In March 2010 voters are being reawakened and trying to figure out who they are A good campaign will remind voters that they have a party ID everyone is a partisanno independents Arnold does this well over the course of his campaign His public support increases because he reminds republicans why they like being a part of the republican party Did Whitman bring home her loyal republican partisans over the course of their campaign No they liked her a little less over course of campaign Maybe the line is flat because they all decided they loved her in 2010 and nothing changed their mind A good campaign will win the support of over 90 of their partisans She did not have their support to begin with Nickygate September 29thBetween Sept and Oct polls Whitman s former housekeeper came forward on September 29th and said she worked for Whitman for 20 years as an illegal immigrant and she knew her immigration status but did not fire her until she decided to run When she fired her she did not give her her last paycheck Supposedly Whitman said you have never seen me and I have never seen you Supposedly Whitman s husband knew about it and told her to check it out and she didn t And so the way this comes to light six weeks before election throws the campaign off track It was too late in the game for her to deal with this Looked bad against one of Whitman s key platforms about cracking down on undocumented workers Hurts her in two ways 1 Among independents who she hadn t been doing well with already 2 Does nothing to help her among her republican party base General Lessons About Campaigns Most campaign effects are small They can focus people on what matter Campaigns say what the election is about The winning side of 2006 and 2010 really helps voters focus on what they are voting for Whitman went to far to the right in the PrimaryBetween Campbell They battled over who was more conservative over course of campaign She went so far to right that she made liberal republicans and moderates uncomfortable If this story is true we would expect that she would do well in republican counties Severely underperforming in places not expectedBut doing better in LA County and orange countyShe doesn t run well in the Republican heartland She did not bring her base back homeNUMBER ONE DISTINCTION She did not remind republicans why they liked her They saw her as too soft on immigration in Nickygate Campaigns matterPartisans do not just jump on board with you you have to give them good reason to There was nothing inevitable about this outcome She was close to Brown at the beginning then became not close The outcome of both 2006 and 2010 had a lot to do with choices campaign teams made Original Question Does democratic registration make it impossible for Republicans to win statewide elections Dewitt says no Whitman even outperformed party registration Basically says independents can go either way Campaigns can choose what issues to focus on focus on economy or not or bring up new issues Campaigns can make choices about how to allocate resources to sway their base Obama spends a good chunk of campaign funds to turn out democratic groups