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Date Created: 02/09/15
Modernization Theory 130 Politics of the Developing World Lipset 1959 quotSome Social Requisites of Democracy Economic Development and Political Legitmacyquot 1 Development affects the natures of the class struggle in society 0 Vibrant middle class 0 Modernization affects democracy through its impact on socioeconomic inequality 2 Economic development helps foster intermediary organizations or civil society 0 Helps check and balance the power of the state 3 Development helps foster democracy by enhancing certain political values or strengthening the political culture 0 Tolerance toward opposing views 0 Moderate restrained and rational style regarding politics and political opposition 4 Education increases the likelihood of democracy 0 Through democratic values raises prospects for democracy Socioeconomic modernization broad coherent syndrome underlying several societal processes industrialization education urbanization spread of communications technology Modernization Theory Traditional society Modern Society Hierarchica ascriptive Meritocratic Religious irrational Secuar scienti c Subsistence economy Capitalist division of labor Atomized Connected mobile Authoritarian tribal Democratic Historical Context 0 19505 post WWII US becoming a Superpower Success of the Marshall Plan 0 New attention to unequal development in the world quotTraditional societyquot Reliance on kinship structures Little social or spatial mobility Only basic economic activity A traditional elite and hierarchical organization quotModern Societyquot Nuclear family serves only limited functions Complex and differentiated occupations and economy Highly differential political structures Rational legal sources of authority What is Progress a natural and political consolidation of the nation state process economic growth and personal quota shift in values attitudes and expectationsquot H Mechanisms for Modernizing media cultural diffusion foreign aid quotsocial evolution Main difference of developed versus undeveloped it39s not the quotnaturequot of the process but the speed and intensity 0 Early developers endogenous cultural and institutional transformations 0 Late developers exogenous stimuli diffusion of modern values and institutions from early developers 0 Expected to replicate path of early modernizers Dependency Theory countries39 economies conditions by the development and expansion of another dependent countries in a backward position exploited by the dominant countries Structural Argument structure of the international system shapes local political and economic structures which in uence individual attitudes values and behavior Or Contrast to cultural arguments individual changes in uence political economic and cultural systems which changes national level outcomes Center Periphery capable of dynamic development re exive development responsive to internal needs main bene ciary of global links constrained by incorporation into the global system AND results from its adaptations to the requirements of the expansion of the center How does the core exploit the periphery Colonialism resource extraction slavery etc International Trade Raul Prebisch quotmonoculturequot Foreign Investment enclaves International Financial Institutions IMF WTO World Bank Foreign debt Foreign currency markets Brain Drain Foreign aid Differences between Modernization and Dependency Modernization 0 Unit of analysis national society 0 Level of analysis behavioral Individuals Values Beliefs Attitudes 0 Time dimension changes over time in the interaction between internal and external factors 0 Perception of human nature lack of behavioral patterns to quotrelativityquot Cultural values and beliefs underlie patterns of economic action 0 Conception of change change as product of innovation due to adoption of modern attitudes by elites Modernizing beliefs as prerequisite for development Dependency 0 Unit of analysis global system and its interactions with national societies 0 Level of analysis structural Mode of production Patterns of international trade Political and economic linkage Groups and class alliances 0 Time dimension fundamentalgt historical mode 0 Perception of human nature human behavior in an economic context is quotconstantquot Different behavior explained by differing contexts 0 Component of change change as result of realignment of dependency relations over time Modernization vs Dependency 0 Both concerned with process of development in modern societies Provide conceptual and analytical tools to explain the relative underdevelopment 0 But differ on fundamental assumptions methodological implications and research strategies Political Culture and Values Selfreinforcing process of modernization transforms social life and political institutions 0 In the long run modernizationgt democracy The quotNewquot Modernization 1 Modernization is NOT linear a Each phase associated with distinctive changes in people39s worldviews b EX industrializationgt Bureaucratization hierarchy centralization of authority secularization shift from tradition to secularrational values c EX postindustrial societygt increasing emphasis on individual autonomy and selfexpression valuesgt growing emancipation from authority 2 Social and cultural change is path dependent a A society s value system is an interaction between the driving forces of modernization and persistence of tradition 3 Modernization is NOT westernization 4 Modernization does NOT automatically lead to democracy a Modernization causes social and cultural changes that make democratization increasingly probable b Beyond a certain point it becomes dif cult to avoid democratization i Repressing mass demands for more open societies becomes increasingly dif cult and costly Core of Modernization Theory according to lnglehart and Welzel Economic and technological development bring about a coherent set of social cultural and political changes 0 Economic development is strongly linked to shifts in people s beliefs and motivations These shifts change the role of religion job motivations human fertility rates gender roles and sexual norms Also bring about growing mass demands for democratic institutions Values Worldviews of people living in rich societies differ systematically from those living in lowincome societies across a wide range of political social and religious norms o EX low income societies much more likely to emphasize religion and traditional gender roles Two basic dimensions 0 Traditional vs secularrational values Agrarian gt industrial societies 0 Survival vs selfexpression values rise of postindustrial societies SelfExpression Values 0 Cultural shift that occurs when younger generations emerge that have grown up taking survival for granted 0 Vs survival values top priority to economic and physical security and conformist social norms Creates culture of trust and tolerance 0 High priority to freedom of expression participation in decisionmaking political activism environmental protection gender equality and tolerance of ethnic minorities foreigners and sexual orientation Survey Evidence Crossnational Every nation de ned as high income ranks relatively high on secularrational and selfexpression values 0 All lowincome and lowermiddle income countries rank relatively low on both dimensions 0 Values and beliefs of a given society re ect its level of economic development Survey Evidence Over time 0 Almost all countries that experienced rising GDP per capita also experience predictable shifts in their values 0 Cultural change is path dependent o Coherent patterns re ect both economic development and religious and colonial heritage The Case for Values 0 Economic development brings social and political changes only when it changes people39s behavior 0 Economic development is conduct to democracy in that o It creates a large educated and articulate middle class who are accustomed to thinking for themselves structural changes 0 Transforms people39s values and motivations rise of selfexpression values Testing Modernization Theory What Role does Development Play 0 What is the impact of development on regime type 0 Can development explain why countries become democracies or remain autocracites The quotfactsquot of Modernization Lipset 1959 Democracy is related to economic development 0 But the reasons could be twofold o Endogenous democracies may be more likely to emerge as countries develop economically o Exogenous democracies may be established independently of economic development but may be more likely to survive in developed countries Endogenous Democratization Means having an internal cause or origin quotModernizationquot theory a progressive accumulation of social changes that ready a society to proceed to its culmination democratization Theory predicts that democracies emerge from development under authoritarianism 0 Poor authoritarian countries developgt become democratic once they reach some quotthresholdquot level of development Exogenous democratization Means of relating to or developing from external factors Lipset 1959 quotthe more welltodo a nation the greater the chances it will sustain democracyquot 0 Theory expects to observe democracies randomly with regards to level of development but to die in the poorer countries and survive in the richer ones 0 History gradually accumulate wealthy democracies Democracy survives if a country is quotmodernquot but it is not a product of quotmodernization H Democracies are likely as per capita income of dictatorships to rise but only until it reaches a level of 6000 At per capita income gt6000 dictatorships become more stable as countries become more wealthy Regime Transitions Dictatorships do not necessarily fall for the same reason in all countries Modernization theory can explain why democracy was established in countries that developed over a long period 0 IF modernization theory is to have any predictive power there must be some level of income at which once can be relatively sure a country will throw off a dictatorship 0 Even those countries that satisfy the premise of modernization theory wide variation Methodological Consideration of Modernization Theory 0 To predict is not the same thing as to explain 0 We may therefore be attributing to development what may have just been a culmination of random hazard 0 Weak casual evidence for economic development Making the Case for Exogenous Democratization Per capita measure of level of development has a strong impact on the survival of democracies No democracy ever fell regardless of everything else in a country with a per capita income higher than that of Argentina in 1975 6055 0 The probability that democracy survives increases monotonically with per capita income Summing PampL No evidence to believe that economic development breeds democracies Democracy is or is not established by political actors pursuing their goals at any level of development 0 Once established democracies are likely to die in poor countries and survive in rich ones Boix and Stokes 2003 quotEndogenous Democratizationquot Development is endogenous and exogenous cause of democracy 0 Problems with PampL 0 Observe few transitions to democracy at high levels of income and infer that income doesn39t cause such transitions whereas this observation is in fact consistent with endogenous democratization 0 Sample is subject to selection problems 0 Analysis suffers from omitted variable bias Robustness Problem 1 Dwindling Numbers o If both explanations are at work there may be few dictatorships left at a high level of income precisely because development at lower levels of income already helped turn them into democracies and then helped keep them democratic The absence of dictatorships at high levels of income supports endogenous democratization Development increases the probability of a transition to democracy Robustness Problem 2 Sample Selection 1950the distribution of regimes was not random but highly correlated with per capita income 0 Need to push sample back where no democracies existed and then observe what generated the process of democratization Growth patterns are also not randomly distributed 0 Solution combine PampL data with Boix and Rosato Democratization is a process endogenous to development Postwar period 39503990 development increased the likelihood of democratic transitions only modestly before 1925 development contributed powerfully to democratization Although more development always increases the probability that a transition to democracy will occur the rate at which development increases the probability of a democratic transition declines with income 0 The impact of development on democratization exhibits diminishing returns 0 The probability of a democratic breakdown declines rapidly as income goes up at low and middle levels of development but the marginal impact of additional wealth at high levels of development is very light After controlling exogenous factors of international politics economic development makes democracy more likely The dynamics of achieving democracy and sustaining it may not be the same Economic development both causes democracy and sustains it endogenous democratization