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Financial Modeling and Valuation Week V Notes

by: Kwan

Financial Modeling and Valuation Week V Notes BU.230.620.W4.SP16

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About this Document

Crystal ball -- monte carlo; Matrix
Financial Modeling and Valuation
Dr. Ken Yook
Class Notes
25 ?




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This 2 page Class Notes was uploaded by Kwan on Thursday April 14, 2016. The Class Notes belongs to BU.230.620.W4.SP16 at Johns Hopkins University taught by Dr. Ken Yook in Spring 2016. Since its upload, it has received 29 views. For similar materials see Financial Modeling and Valuation in Finance at Johns Hopkins University.


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Date Created: 04/14/16
Modeling  V Thursday,  April  14,  2016 09:04 1. Monte-­‐Carlo  (Crystal  Ball) Sensitivity  analysis:  What-­‐if  analysis;  scenario  analysis;  mon-tearlo Eg.  Simulation  example =Rand:  random  number  generator Fn+F9:  refresh NORM.INV(RAND(),MEAN,  SIGMA):  normal  distribution Run  100  times:   Cmd  +  shift  +  arrow  down:  select What-­‐if  Analysis-­  -­‐data  table  -­‐-­‐ column  input:  any  empty  cell Make  it  unchanged:  copy  &  paste  to  another  column Data  analysis:  descriptive  statistics --­‐inputs  &  summary;  histogram -­‐-­‐  inputs,  insert   graph eg.Direct  sampling Historical  simulation:   =vlookup,  $$,  false -   exact  match Crystal  ball  -­‐-­‐define  assumption  -­‐-­‐discrete  uniform,  max/min  -­‐-­‐crystal  copy -­‐  -­‐e define  forecast:  name  -­‐-­‐trials  -­‐-­‐start From  …  To  …:  certainty Eg.FitDistExercise Discrete  uniform-­‐  -­‐ Fit  -­‐-­‐range  -­‐-­‐accept  -­‐copy  &  p  -­‐define  forecast eg.Simulation  (project  valuation) Norm  &  Uniform Define  forecast -­‐-­‐ name:  left  column  default >0:  certainty eg.Simulation  (firm  valuation) PPT  9-­‐16 Normal:  mean  selected,  std.ev  10% -­‐-­‐Correlate  -­‐-­‐ add  assumptions >0:  certainty eg.Simulation  (firm  valuation) PPT  9-­‐16 Normal:  mean  selected,  std.ev  10% -­‐-­‐Correlate  -­‐-­‐ add  assumptions Log  normal:  no  negative  numbers Judgment:  to  change  important  variables  on  assumptions Intrinsic  value  per  share:  output  (define  forecast)   -­‐-­‐market  value  (undervalue  -­‐ certainty) View:  statistics Forecast:  open  sensitivity  chart  -­‐-­‐define  the  importance  of  variables Create  report  -­‐-­‐full  report NB.  Crystal  ball  recognize  only  hard  values Correlation  in  real  world For  exercise,  y1  only 2. Matrices Linear  algebra =transpose NB.  shift  +  ctrl  +  enter Paste  special:  transpose =mmult,  order  is  important =minverse Ctrl  +  1:  format HW:  submit  it  to  2  links!!


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