Financial Modeling and Valuation Week V Notes
Financial Modeling and Valuation Week V Notes BU.230.620.W4.SP16
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This 2 page Class Notes was uploaded by Kwan on Thursday April 14, 2016. The Class Notes belongs to BU.230.620.W4.SP16 at Johns Hopkins University taught by Dr. Ken Yook in Spring 2016. Since its upload, it has received 29 views. For similar materials see Financial Modeling and Valuation in Finance at Johns Hopkins University.
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Date Created: 04/14/16
Modeling V Thursday, April 14, 2016 09:04 1. Monte-‐Carlo (Crystal Ball) Sensitivity analysis: What-‐if analysis; scenario analysis; mon-tearlo Eg. Simulation example =Rand: random number generator Fn+F9: refresh NORM.INV(RAND(),MEAN, SIGMA): normal distribution Run 100 times: Cmd + shift + arrow down: select What-‐if Analysis- -‐data table -‐-‐ column input: any empty cell Make it unchanged: copy & paste to another column Data analysis: descriptive statistics --‐inputs & summary; histogram -‐-‐ inputs, insert graph eg.Direct sampling Historical simulation: =vlookup, $$, false - exact match Crystal ball -‐-‐define assumption -‐-‐discrete uniform, max/min -‐-‐crystal copy -‐ -‐e define forecast: name -‐-‐trials -‐-‐start From … To …: certainty Eg.FitDistExercise Discrete uniform-‐ -‐ Fit -‐-‐range -‐-‐accept -‐copy & p -‐define forecast eg.Simulation (project valuation) Norm & Uniform Define forecast -‐-‐ name: left column default >0: certainty eg.Simulation (firm valuation) PPT 9-‐16 Normal: mean selected, std.ev 10% -‐-‐Correlate -‐-‐ add assumptions >0: certainty eg.Simulation (firm valuation) PPT 9-‐16 Normal: mean selected, std.ev 10% -‐-‐Correlate -‐-‐ add assumptions Log normal: no negative numbers Judgment: to change important variables on assumptions Intrinsic value per share: output (define forecast) -‐-‐market value (undervalue -‐ certainty) View: statistics Forecast: open sensitivity chart -‐-‐define the importance of variables Create report -‐-‐full report NB. Crystal ball recognize only hard values Correlation in real world For exercise, y1 only 2. Matrices Linear algebra =transpose NB. shift + ctrl + enter Paste special: transpose =mmult, order is important =minverse Ctrl + 1: format HW: submit it to 2 links!!
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