Violence by Non-State Actors
Violence by Non-State Actors PSC 204- Dr. Chyzh
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This 7 page Class Notes was uploaded by Erica Kugler on Thursday February 12, 2015. The Class Notes belongs to PSC 204- Dr. Chyzh at University of Alabama - Tuscaloosa taught by Dr. Chyzh in Spring2015. Since its upload, it has received 158 views. For similar materials see International Relations in Political Science at University of Alabama - Tuscaloosa.
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Date Created: 02/12/15
Violence by NonState Actors Civil War and Terrorism 0 Difference bwn civil war and terrorism scale 0 Civil wars are much larger in scale in terms of the of participants and the death toll Civil War gt intrastate war occurs at the domestic level 0 quotthe pitting of two or more groups win a country against one another 0 Groups can be the government or rebels o The groups involved in the conflict usually have similar military capabilities 0 When compared to international wars civil wars are generally More bloody gt death toll for civil wars is much higher than for other wars Harder to resolve gt hard to fight a rebel group because they use guerilla tactics More commonoccur more frequently Longer in duration gt civil wars last around 6 yrs while international wars last 3 months I Rebel use guerilla tactics harder for other side to obtain a swift victory o 3 interests underlying civil wars territory policy and regimetype 0 These are the same three that underlie international war 0 quotinterestsquot of war reasons of war 0 There has been an increase in the number of civil wars around the globe since the end of WWII 0 Why I Decolonialization 0 When colonial powers occupied other territories they held those ethnically divided places together by quotkeeping a tight lid on the situation 0 When the colonizers left once the colonies declared independence that quotlidquot was removed and the ethnic divisions emerged which led to war and violence 0 Ex Rwandan genocide I Breakdown of authoritarian regimes o Authoritarian regimes USSR and Yugoslavia o Communist regimes held together heterogeneous states win their domain 0 When the regimes fell apart heterogeneous states fought each other 0 Ex Yugoslavia and war bwn Serbs Croats Albanians and more 0 O O O Greed and Grievances o Greed gt people or groups wanting something that they cannot or do not have 0 Natural resources oil diamonds etc I Uneven distribution of resources among groups creates greed by some 0 Trafficking gt drugs guns people o Opportunity costs 0 Grievances o Discrimination gt one group is favored over others and the others are subjected to social and political alienation I People or groups are disadvantaged in some way 0 Ethnic and religious conflict Civil War Actors 0 Secessionists claim autonomy 0 Seek to carve out a piece of a state s territory for its own new state 0 Ex Chechnya and Russia 0 rredentist claim that a territory of one state should belong to another state 0 Ex Ukraine and Russia wRussian separatists claiming Crimea for Russia 0 Ex Transmitria I Moldovan territory that is populated by Russians who oppose Moldova s policies regarding the use of Romanian as the official language I Want to belong to Russia not Moldova 0 Actions by actors win a state can resolve civil wars via compromises o Compromises negotiate secession grant autonomy 0 Actions by actors win a state can perpetuate civil wars 0 3 causes of war I Incomplete information I Commitment problems I ndivisibiity of goods or issue indivisibility Incomplete Information cause of war 1 0 Groups win a state may have incentives to misrepresent info 0 Strength gt influence local support make your group seem stronger than it is o Resolve gt misrepresent your willingness to fight appear willing to fight 0 Location gt try to deceive your enemy o Uncertainty about leadership gt is leader strong or weak appear strong but is weak Commitment Problems cause of War 2 o Arise when there are frequent changes in power of an actor govt or rebels in the conflict 0 e Power shifts gt power change due to gainloss of support gainloss of strategic land 0 Settlements of civil wars often require rebel groups to lay down their arms 0 Problems will the govt take advantage of the disarmed rebels How can rebel groups convince all their members to stop fighting 0 Third party intervention UN can help solve this issue by enforcing settlement terms 0 Security dilemma 0 States wcivil war lack the authority needed for governance I Produces a quotselfhelp system 0 Security spiral I Any effort by one group to increase its security in effect decrease the security of the other group That other group will then want to increase its security by arming itself The first group will try to increase its security some more because the other group has gained more arms and the cycle continues until war starts 0 Causes a reverse effect of what you wanted because now instead of having more security and a decreased possibility of war you have less security and a higher risk of war I Strategic conditions reward aggression rather than defense I Uncertainty about weapon type can lead to security spiral o Are weapons offensive or defensive I Firststrike advantage gt when striking first carries the advantage of winning the conflict then groups will want to increase their security relative to the other state to strike first but it will result in security spiral and arms buildup Issue ndivisibiity cause of war 3 o ndivisible goods quotallornothing disputes o Govts may face many rebel groups 0 Giving into the demands of one group can result in I The empowerment of other groups 0 You giving in shows weakness which means other groups feel more confident in getting what they demand from you I The questioning of your resolve by the public and international community 0 By giving in people begin to question your resolve and commitment to not give in Ultra Bad Boys and Serbian soccer 1990s 0 Ultra Bad Boys were fans of a Serbian soccer team gt extreme fans violent 0 Serbian government used them as a paramilitary force against opposition groups of Serbian rule 0 ex used in Serbia s fight against Croatia to prevent Croatian from declaring independence 0 Ultra Bad Boys and their fighting is an example of how a domestic group could be used to impact the internal stability of a country Consequences of Civil War Economic troubles and postconflict recovery Stunted population due to large loss of life Refugee crisis gt where do people go Psychological costs gt some people experience family loses personal tragedies etch Terrorism quotthe use or threat of use of premeditated politically motivated violence against noncombatant targets by subnational groups or clandestine agents usually to influence an audience 0 Five key parts to terrorism I Premeditation I Political motivation I Targets are noncombatants civilians I Attackers are subnational groups not part of the gov t or state I Goal of attacks is to influence the target audience instill fear show resolve 3 actors in terrorism perpetrator target and gov t Domestic terrorism Terrorism that doesn t cross international borders 0 All three actors are from and within the same state Transnational terrorism terrorism that crosses international borders 0 One or more of the three actors is from different states Trends the frequency of terrorism has decreases since 911 Terrorism peaked during the 70s but has been declining since the North America has only gotten 5 of all terrorist attacks in last four decades Frequent terrorist targets diplomatic facilities businesses 0 Goal is to weaken a state s political and economic infrastructure 0 Little attacks targeted against food or water Most deadly attacks are done by separatist or nationalist groups 911 most deadly terrorist attack in modern history 0 Resulted in War on Terror invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan and increases homeland securing Terrorism puzzle why use violence and not peace to achieve the political goal 0 2 explanations I Terrorists are hatefilled irrational people I Terrorism is the result of bargaining failure due to incomplete information Are Terrorist Rational Interests of terrorists aren t widely shared among the population so they have to rely on a few people to help them achieve their big goal Terrorist do think rationally gt they rank alternative outcomes by looking at costs vs benefits 0 Weigh costs of using violence vs benefits of using violence I Quantify benefits and costs so benefits costs overall gain 0 Chose end value that is the largest biggest gain after taking out the costs Rational aspects of terrorism 0 Select strategic vulnerable targets 0 Respond to risks 0 Adjust to counterterrorism What may appear irrational to us may be part of a rational strategy by the terrorists 0 Random attacks irrational to us 0 Random attacks rational to terrorists bc randomizing attacks means that they can instill more fear in people bc of the unpredictability of the next attack and it makes it harder for gov t to capture them if gov t don t know where they are operating Strategic Logic of Terrorists Terrorism is an extreme form of quotasymmetrical warfare o Asymmetrical warfare fighting bwn parties of highly unequal military capabilities To get funds terrorists revert to criminal activity and failedcorrupt gov t The goal of terrorists is to weaken the political system of the state in order to achieve concessions toward their own political agenda Extremists have interests that are NOT widely shared by others gt extremists minority group 0 Extremists are usually a small network of people who face a larger majority that doesn t share their beliefs 0 Extremist model bellshaped curve on a graph wextremists at the leftmost and rightmost regions and the majority in the middle Organization of terrorism networks makes them difficult to defeat 0 Networks quotcellsquot 0 Cells are usually located win populations that support the terrorists 0 Cells are arranged to where all members know of them common goal via communication lines but each member doesn t know every other member I Ex ABCD o The terrorist group s goal is communicated along the line 0 B knows A and C but not D same concept applies for the other members 0 because of this taking out one member of the cell doesn t do a lot in terms of defeating the whole network since the network is decentralized Why do Terrorists use violence 0 Terrorism is a form of bargaining that uses violence and threats of violence to increase costs on the state 0 Violence is the result after failed bargaining o 3 cause of failed bargaining that lead to violence and terrorism I Incomplete information commitment problems and indivisibility Incomplete Information and Terrorism 0 Terrorist networks have incentive to exaggerate their strength resolve and capabilities 0 Amount of info states and terrorist are willing to share is limited 0 It is harder for terrorists to make credible threats Commitment Problems and Terrorism 0 States make concessions to terrorists to decrease fear and prevent future attack 0 Lack of credibility by terrorists prevents agreements that would benefit both sides 0 Concerns of the state is the terrorist leadership reliable Will all the terrorist members comply wagreement terms Indivisibility and Terrorism 0 Indivisibility some disputed objectplaceetc can t be divided 0 Most groups fight for national or regional independence and claim that independence is an quotall ornothing thing 0 Will only accept full independence c not more autonomy or power sharing or other op on 0 Terrorism over religion is the most deadly form hard to divide a religion 0 when a party doesn t want to negotiate they will claim that the thing in question is indivisible and this prevent future negotiation attempts 4 strategies terrorists use to win 0 Coercion o Induce policy changes by imposing threats on costs on the other side 0 Goal of terrorists make state give into concessions I AVOID having to fulfill coercion threat 0 Having to use force failure of coercion 0 Costs on terrorists by using coercion I Resources I Existential threats risk of exposurelose element of secrecy o Provocation 0 Attack the state who then retaliates in a way that alienates the people and makes them sympathize wthe terrorists 0 Goal of the terrorists gain more supporters o Spoiling o Sabotage peace agreements bwn the target and the leadership of the terrorist home society 0 Sabotaging agreements no peace terrorism can continue good for terrorists o Outbidding o 2 or more terrorist groups that have the same interests and are on the same are compete with one another to gain local support I Groups that carry out more or most deadly attacks are seen as being stronger and more able to fight the state so people join that group over the other groups Prevent Terrorism 0 Strategies to prevent terrorism 0 Deterrence aim is to preserve the status quo by threatening challengers wcosts I States try to deter terrorists by threatening to attack their networks 0 Ineffective threat since networks are decentralized and taking out one terroristcell doesn t mean whole network will fall 0 Counterterrorism defense measures by the state to protect itself I Good and bad 0 Good increased security better protection 0 Bad increased security think of airports and security checks 0 Preemptation destroy a terrorist group before they attack I Can be done by surveillance 0 Negotiation I Usually not effective because negotiating wterrorists emboldens other terrorists groups and terrorists have no incentive to uphold their side of the negotiation
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