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Week 3 Notes

by: Danielle Notetaker

Week 3 Notes PSY 330

Danielle Notetaker
GPA 3.2

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Week three of Thinking
Thinking >2
Rode C
Class Notes
25 ?




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This 3 page Class Notes was uploaded by Danielle Notetaker on Sunday April 17, 2016. The Class Notes belongs to PSY 330 at University of Oregon taught by Rode C in Fall 2015. Since its upload, it has received 33 views. For similar materials see Thinking >2 in Social Science at University of Oregon.


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Date Created: 04/17/16
Week Three 04/12/2016 ▯ Working memory capacity is very limited ▯ ▯ System one and system two interact ▯ ▯ A monk climbs a mountain, ascent is slower then his descent ▯ Is there any point of the day that he reached at precisely the same time on his ascent and descent? ▯ Yes ▯ ▯ Two monks hike, do they ever cross paths? ▯ Yes ▯ ▯ Thinking is difficult if ▯ -it demands a lot of working memory (monk problem) ▯ -it has to override System 1 thinking ▯ ▯ Thinking: Heuristics and Biases ▯ “Amos and I had our most productive year in 1971-71, which we spent in Eugene, Oregon” (kahneman, 2010) ▯ ▯ Much of our thinking is determined by the fast acting system 1. System 1 processes the world quickly, often based on experience and knowledge stored in long term memory. It „alerts“ system 2 if there is a conflict or an unexpected event. ▯ ▯ Anchoring Experiement ▯ In this experiment, business students were asked if they would pay the last 2 digits of their social security numbers for each of several items (e.g., 34 = $34) ▯ ▯ “Although students were reminded that the social security number is a random quantity conveying no information, those who happened to have high social security numbers were willing to pay much more for the products.” ▯ ▯ Classic Anchor Experiement ▯ 1. Subject witnesses the number that comes up when a wheel of fortune is spun ▯ 2. Is asked whether the number of African countries in the U.N. is greater than or less than the number on the wheel of fortune ▯ 3. Is asked to guess the number of African countries in the U.N. ▯ ▯ Result: those who got higher numbers on the wheel of fortune guessed bigger numbers in Step 3 ▯  People begin the process of estimation with whatever information readily appears in their minds (anchoring)  They then reassess their initial answers based on rough notions of what is a not-too-silly answer (adjustment)  Statisticians have consistently measured the effect of the anchor value on the estimate that people make  For different anchors, people make different estimates  For any given change in the anchor, the estimate tends to change by 55% of the change in the anchor ▯ ▯ Heuristics lead to Biases  Unfortunately, we tend to be too cautious in the adjustment phase  As a result, the initial anchor tends to heavily influence our final estimates  Our final estimates tend to get biased by our anchoring heuristics ▯ ▯ How Happy are you? ▯ College students were asked the following questions in sequence:  How happy are you?  How often are you dating? ▯ The two answers showed a low correlation (0.11) ▯ ▯ Then the question sequence was reversed:  How often are you dating?  How happy are you? ▯ The two answers showed a high correlation (0.62) ▯ ▯ The answer to the dating question (objective and easily determined) acted as an anchor to the happiness question ▯ ▯ It is possible to influence the figure you will choose in a particular situation by ever-so-subtly suggesting a starting point (anchor) for your anchoring-and-adjustment rule of thumb ▯ ▯ Linda Problem ▯ ▯ Linda is 31 years old, single outspoken and very bright. She majored in Philosophy. As a student she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations. ▯ ▯ The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut that occurs when people make judgments about the probability of events by how easy it is to think of examples. The availability heuristic operates on the notion that, "if you can think of it, it must be important.” In other words, the easier it is to recall examples of something, the greater we perceive the frequency of these events in our natural environment to be. ▯ ▯ Availability- Imagination has a key role. Vividness ▯ -Plane crashes on the news/ why people are scared ▯ ▯ ▯


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