EPSS 101 - Lectures 4
EPSS 101 - Lectures 4
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Date Created: 04/14/14
The Fundamental Issue r E x 17 Lecture 4 5 r l in Energy Population The Economy and the o N J 395 nu 39 m39I39au i ru alIIIILn E Y UCLA E53 tor EiJItl39139s Energy 35 M quot l ei quot m quot 7 Dlmlnlshlr1gtossil resources ond quotWquot 39 anH 5 nrosoects for o tusttoinoble future Finite Earth Rapidly Expanding Human Population PrCll eSsor rlCl Paige Wit39ll Tt1 Tl J rrrEr739rnl r5ul1ado ha 395 gnmg 0 happen ll tflLrlrll l lquot l ntrt39rlll it t rrlll5 rrll rrr1tf39lllj tn 39l J 3 lEli jectr The Finite Earth Population Growth and Decay Let N be the population and let B be the fractional birth rate and D be the fractional death rate per unit Ezpuamqlhl annnm hauy lnr llit I The Earth is nite in two major respects y T 1 T M l p M time t Then R the rate ofpopulation growth is w Fume Renewable Resources R B D and the rate of change in population per v z l e E y s quot l UX Energy tlows solar hydrolloglccycey mm B I E T5 D T 1 Mass flows lblogeoclhemical cycles dNm1 RN 0 A i J V s3 Bl oclly ersity lnon renewable in thE eV BlFlT V r Oi Etlquot t l l 5 33939 av psM N Finite NonRenewable Resources 2 I N Ow t at time t where e 2Tl82B the baae 0 fl1EllUrall 39 7 logarithms Land and Ocean Area finite space Doubling time vs Growth Rah Land and Ocean Molecules irreversible cgnverslon E For in puIauons the population will clouhle I p i when 2 O R M l ll a l12 07 7 quotI Any rational consideration of the nite nature or Earths resources suggests r0U9hvl 30 U14 Hilly 7 i P s in that longlterm sustainabili 1 can only be achieved by living witnlnl the I r 5 o beundatrles D Earth39s renewabIeresources The clepletion or Earth39s non 393 h E tphe0p pquot mt Cm i 1 renewable resources is not sustainable We only have one Earth We may 1 T L i it x y y y Rt ln05 07 roughly so th half life IS 0 0amp one day be able to utlIize resources from space but we only have one i r a 30quot 3 Stemk it the rate of propurlatlon increase remains at 1 per U gin quot W t atnlrgeimaiunn rpiaq p E year then the population will dlouble every 70 years tlwl l C1 I P to ft tl llTllh lilbljl Wizu lquotrt39lL 3tllLl l l E rt35olJi39t EEm N llml7 mHGr F3 tltlnrole hr neolh rot l tllnt N H y nt nrnmntmn til ll lU quotTh Dcgttblllw l ljllrrtcr 3 p rs e 0 Ll nrgtlt tile yquotquotl39 1 e P la TF 4 Lquot t 39 k h x lien 139 439 l 39Jquotquotl1quot quot1 quot K Mquot lquotquot1quotquotl gtii i quotl quotii ll Q l 0 u 39l39 t39t littiifl 39 LE rti i ilLI 5 J it tie as i v H anen i e rjl itQ i l ll lE tT rquotllf Ll 0 quot I rli viW R e W p fl tiquot quot39 t 7 l IF 39I A l quot gl39ii iri 5 real L Jllr1iBil hi it Xe L quotW T Population Dynamics 2004 UN RGDOIT Pl39OjeC lOl39lSi Thu oisnugrupmc Trnrmtinn J I P Ek3quot 39quotI R can increase rapidly when the death 39 12 x K rate D decreases due to improved H M 39 39 b k39 t ts tiltft nit nutrition sanitation and medicine b lb u v gt quot W f If the birth rate B eventually decreases 5 Ml quot 39quotL k I r such that R becomes zero the 7 quot I nrji L 39quot39 39 G l I population does not decrease but iv r r H M 39 u quot J plateaus at an elevated level l 3 UCl U I 39 pZT 3 Z G titti 1 L 0 V The distribution of ages in re poplulatloin 2 39 is a good predictor o uture poptillation r W39 fit S L 5 changes since population growth is H 1 39 driven by the number of 1l840 year olds l i gt 9 France is exp eirlenciinig a stable quot g339E H it 3 population distribution whereas llndia is 3 poised for contsrdeirablle future 2 or t to 0K t population growth even if everyone E 3 N f r J Ry I 1Q Q 39 p P i e i 39 I mlw13 currently under 40 has just one Child remint 39 l l h 12 fl J 9 E M a Population Age Distributions lrjllr l i i M til i iri i 39 L ii N ill quotIquot J i zM I l7 I W it r l r 7 39 lI f1 quot1 J din 39 lc r YK s it V 39 til tr I39m L In all ILquotl quot L ll l U quot it r it it I lwrti L to l l d1 iS t it 1 U l tit it L r it to M quoti39l t J t39Zl39lquot39l i tii vi39iuii il trJ1 Ei1l lI lI 39i Flalaltlit quotjClilittlP i39i iIutL 3939 ilIl ilL 39 wi JitquotIv tilt 39 l39r rt i 1ll ji lift i it tlquot1 i39quotl 3955 9 399quot tr Iquotte not ti ti i ii Po u latioin la rid S ustai na bi I it So it EartE s population stablllizes at 9 billion peoiple are we olc y 3 7 S E Fl 6 y F I p ll this pOplLlll EMllOlt39l is sdstained by nonerenewatale resoiiiroes the obvious answer to this question is no since a nite population of any size will Earmus E 8 Fhgt Flamp39 F39Junr I39h39quott Solar 1 rquot39 l W P7 New ner quot p 7 eventualIlv deplete a nonrenewable resource even it they do their best to How 5 do T agg L 4 quot conserve it Pogpulatioini control is necessary for sustainability lElUl39t not by the b5rmGn df 3 r39 ie 3L 1 larl radiation and i Another key issue is the quality of life The quality of our lives is correlated to We emll5ll0 lquotl Of Hl m TM ew some degree with the rate of resource utilization Therefore in a sustainable g v3939 K 11 world the quality of life will vary inversely withpopulation lie the fewer e ace 1 quot54 l i 1rtE people we have the better off they will all be Obviously this idea can39t be 39 Human U335 Wm i E taken too far because our lives are also enriched by the multiplicity and amount ml 3 V 5 l Y 1 ff39ff39 diversity of our fellow hurnarns Small Percentage Of 3939 r f quot I the Earth39s total l quot 9E t gAgig 39F Et 3 energy flow g 5 quot39quot39 p 39 T 1 quot39 lagmi Tr 39it F Anton H aI39nuss393939 It OJEI W3 i 7 5 ri t39quot1 1 iquot Fnullllfuale P P V FIGURE 1436 EArm quot Era nIwwriIti rt 39l J If mur5 CCquot139quotf39tquotrg 39t EW W lrrn2ri391r C1span 1 tquot PK 0 S ll TV M I k 1 X I 4 Fl T p N pR Ii e l 8 v air7i t39t o tr W l Lquot r l tft H K ri r 3lC l iti39i a E I lit to tied it ll 9 if it lIlit i tmt itin 1 ix I ill ii in tie lg lits t39iitm tJU l S Ululilltj U do 5 J is if totd j it it it 5 Ti ilttt hr l QCib7 Jlu nnvWortmw 0tmoE What is the impact of human activities on jt39h eyg Earth T E E2 3 E 539 l F ik n ullsg xthi uu I Into 1 mo 7 My i ran W ingigJ3 u 5 t i quotis lg v r 2 E l E ll 3 ELF a e i m st 1 rm 7 tie a at T t x By 3 A 5 e quotquot39 7 Py ar e y quot E 3quot 3 3 gt 0 J 5 3 639 5 5 uquot usquot sJ 5 3 1 1 41 ltF 5 I F 1quot wequot 41quot 5quot 3 39 F P r quot in II Wu 5 39 1 quot E a lAn 139 m gr mum ta 3 fl 1 a 39 was E ungninan ngg Iv 39t39 g I9 A 5 E 54 It 5 I 9 o 3 G H x 5 5 9 if xi 6 3quot 2 J 39 5 nu to 39 39I To 391iip 3InI1 lingout liia 151 raysI rujni lam dl39 r Iwetn V tianiuu uens V aud 39 i j 39 n i i 39 p o itl is m i av 1 l 1 l it mt Ean E i lgaa quotr4g l i In 7399 1 1 3 l J jgsf p h 1 I i I quot I A 7 W 7 E 7 1 i quot s R a at r s2 2 9quot 6 or quot quotaat39quot 3 mad r r at 5 Tau III ts it gt53 3953 53 gt gt9 llumani irnpaot on the Earth scaies with population R non5umnable ti i ti W1 tr hit 1 airtjt 39ilt i Ii tgl W Wt D5 t lt t i ttk What about What if we39ve underestimated our nonrenewable resources Then they will peak later than expected but they will still peak What if we conserve and recycle our non renewable resources We would have to oonsenie and recycle faster than population growth times demand which isn39t happening Even if we could do this it would only delay the peaks What if the prices of nonrenewabte resources increase as they beoome more scarce Won39t that make further exploration and extraction economically viahtle r es but entploraation and errtraction of resources itseili reoluires resounzes if you use more resources to extract a resource than you gain than the extraction will not be economicatly viable no matter how valuable the resource What about the law of supply and demand Won39t this guarantee the availability of abundant resources for everyone No it doesn39t guarantee abundant resources for everyone right now and it de nitely won39t guarantee future resources for everyone especially resources that don39t exist What about new technologies and substitutes New technologies for extracting and utilizing nonrenewable resources will only delay the peaks Only new technologies for extracting and utilizing renewable resources will speed the inevitable transition to a sustainable economy What about controlling population The rate of population growth is declining but the population itself is still growing Controlling population by irtten tionally iincreasitng the death rate is obviouslly not accepta ble What Fraction of Earth s Non Renewable Resources Remain 9 One olbjeclive way to tool at this is to look at patterns of utilization W quotL1 3 if the rate at which we utilize a resource has peakeld than we have probably exhausted at least half of that resource if the rate of resource extraction grows with time then peak extraction will come earlier and the tail off in extraction will happen faster n11 r nut lmwgwi i antam renewable resources inlzu years It quot it u 4 7 rquot7IquotI39 39hEeYI IW2 mu quotM II 2 rnrn l I J 1 sar smUsuiiek Inn g39but1u Bottom Line We are loo quotn at ermanent supply slholntfallls for lrnost non tf ltli iiiii39o L liift39 j re li riC Hurt iliJl aquottquotquot i hmkuhe hmrnot dml butwi T life it f lij ti l ljifE 1 l u it 3 if til it ieo t tour of thb re uuire If LaE I N r 7 cured umjler CiittfE tiEll5 too hora iunoort mt lr i SDL3il if Q What about if we just do nothing 9 Soon after the start of the industrial revolution Thomas Malthus wrote about the disconnect between the potential for exponential human population growth and nite global resources He argued that famine and disease were inevitable ggseg uances of the oyerextehslon of human E Q ulation T 6 As we will see later in the class the exponential increase in human population can be attributed in large part to the availability of energy from non renewable fossil fuel resources Modernday pessimists predict that the exhaustion of fossil fuel resources will lead to a quotfreeze in the darkquot scenano resulting in the downfall of induggial civilization in your lifetimes however short they may toe The Reverend Thomas Malthus 17861834 quotAn Essay on the Principle of Populationquot Modern paraphrase quotThings that can39t go on forever don39t 39 u u I in lt quot 0 l F39 411 Ea Freeze in the dark scenario i ht39quotii39i Qt ti 1quoti39i3 ltioltCilnfgtllll j rtitt ii tiIttilltttlirt Lt1illll salt if U tl
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