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Brazil - Rising Power

by: Amaris Mae

Brazil - Rising Power PSC 2484

Amaris Mae
GPA 3.75
Latin American Policy
Cynthia McClintock

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About this Document

These are the notes from the first day of Brazil lecture series. The guest speaker notes are in black, personal comments in purple, and article readings in blue.
Latin American Policy
Cynthia McClintock
Class Notes
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This 8 page Class Notes was uploaded by Amaris Mae on Thursday February 19, 2015. The Class Notes belongs to PSC 2484 at George Washington University taught by Cynthia McClintock in Winter2015. Since its upload, it has received 114 views. For similar materials see Latin American Policy in International Studies at George Washington University.

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Date Created: 02/19/15
Brazil Rising Power Guest Speaker Americans ed the civil war Brought with them cotton industry Plantation system Brings slaves eventually 16th and 17th century Brazil has that model in the 19th century because of the relation between Brazilian court and the Portuguese port Breakdown in plantation in 19305 quotEverything takes place in the futurequot Brazil wants stability The less things change the better one can prepare for the future Brazilian principles have been very stable US believes in helping other countries develop a democracy Not universally shared Same applies to the term quotmiddle powerquot Is it a useful de nition Principals of Brazil39s foreign country Instead of comparing Brazil to other nations look to history Looking for common variables 1 Leading element in Brazilian foreign policy is the promotion of its own economic well being Compare to Venezuela focus on humanitarian aid and receiving aid or compare to countries that focus on war Bringing new markets Always negotiating to increase economic well being Not just a market economy capitalist system Adjusted to the prevailing ideological eIement Ideology our belief about the nature of humans as a political animal and the nature of the encomia model and nally the nature of government 2 Noninterference in internal affairs of other countries This only changed in the US under the Carter administration In the largest most unilateral way Until then alliance with dictators and democrats aIike Sweden England and Brazil 3 Keep status quo 4 Push for diplomatic solutions 2010 Brazil tried to negotiate with Iran same way that the US is now Maybe the US is following Brazilian example 5 You need to have ruIe based international regimes International regime area of international politics driven by rules norms where you have a convergence about behavior Ex Ebola in Africa the world quickly formed arrangement and agreements about moving people in and out of the region other uncIear arrangements that are expected Brazil wants to advance this notion of having clear rules of what takes place in every scenario Ex human traffic Ex disease Ex internet security Ex child pornography All currently in the margin of today39s discussion not a very clear space and Brazil wants to change the rules or establish them 9 Once there is a rule in place you lessen your transactional cost Ex rules to drive on the right side of the road What is the notion of Brazil as a Middle Power Brazil is outside the main track of confrontation Mostly in northern hemisphere Brazil has not been involved with direct geopolitical confrontation Brazil was xing its border issues in the 1900s Border issue was primarily with Argentina after the other states had declared independence Because of dam 1970s 9 This is where Brazil39s attention was You cannot really measure what kind of power Brazil had because it wasn t involved tested Brazil was the 5th country to open an embassy in the US 1882 Brazilian emperor visited the US Idea to be a part of the world 1960539 nonproliferation treaty US and USSR In terms of the international system there is a treaty Brazil was part of a nonnuclear weapons zone in LA but it wouldn39t sign the treaty Because the treaty speci ed that the countries that have nuclear weapons will disarm Would only sign when it saw the disarmament of China GB France USSR and US And Brazil moved forward with its arms industry 9 Relations with the US came to a head Carter president 9 Carter started calling Brazil out on humanitarian rights 9 Brazil didn39t really care continued its weapon construction 1979 Brazil and Germany signed nuclear technology agreement Germany has been a silent ally of Brazil Brazil could threaten the US with helping Germany out getting closer to Germany Argentina Dif cult for Brazil to advance Argentina is not predictable Not stable Brazil and Argentina ADACC London Club Falkland War in 1982 Collapse of the regime in Argentina Brazil39s goal was to build a free trade area between the two Just came into democracy so this was very important America wanted all of the Americas for free trade Latin American countries didn39t want this because American competitiveness was too much would destroy local industry Didn39t know China was coming Exercise of in uence in Argentina not an exercise of power Brazilian Economy 1982 the Brazilian economy almost went under Due to foreign debt Economy could not generate enough revenue quotThe lost decadequot When Brazil has to quottighten the beltquot By 19911992 Strong institutional control over politics in the country President was impeached for corruption Another impeachment of Rouseff Curio Upset businessmen for policies Then left Cardoza becomes minister of the economy Then becomes president A lot of things were set during the Cardoza administration The corrections for the recession Now quotBrazil is ready to go into a virtuous cycle in its economyquot In 2007 the banking crisis in the US didn39t affect Brazil Because of the Cardoza administration The notion that Brazil wants to be a rule maker becomes extremely important Pushed the idea that you need to have a reform in the Security Council Security Council Mexico never wanted to sit the in Security Council But in 2000 they were accepted And then 911 And Mexico didn39t have a happy experience in the Security Council What is the point of the Security Council after the bipolarity of the Cold War Brazilian diplomat said share development and reconstructions BUT they don39t want to be responsible for quotmessing up thingsquot Brazil strongly reproached the Iraqi invasion WTO More important to Brazil Look to DOHA Brazil sat in every single committee The notion is that you need to have certain rules that would be universally appHed Ex agricultural subsidies not just the United States that wants to protect the farmers in Illinois Brazil didn39t want subsidies but at the least wanted to set rules None of the developed countries agreed with this So brazil focused on how to deal with con ict the rules for dealing with con ict Brazil has recently won a large battle against the US on cotton Based on the instruments ways you go about deciding on con icts Pro cheap goods others will buy Con Brazilian companies are not getting enough pro t FDI usually comes in the form of bonds does not go directly into the industry Brazil is the third largest holder of US bonds I believe this is what he said not entirely sure Brazil won t be able to keep its interest as high as it is right now for a long time devaluation cannot stay Haiti Brazil sustained the diplomatic mission in Haiti Most troops in Haiti Operationally leads the diplomatic work at the UN This is used a bribing chip China once said that if people would recognize Taiwan it would force Brazil out of Haiti D makes Haiti an issue for the US Brazil has three times truly shown its power a Argentina b Economy c UNWTO and Haiti Brazilian Relation with US 1 Market relation very intense relations a Business b Students lots in the US 2 Triangular relation in regards to Haiti and Iran a Brazil exports a lot of food to Iran b Brazil is the biggest presence in Haiti 3 China is coming with long term investments in exchange for goods i Infrastructure in brazil s Brazil important to America It is not the equivalent of Iran or Iraq in terms of attracting attention But Spy gate in 2010 Brazilian caught with spying for the US Compounded with Snowden Dilma is quotin a tight skirtquot Accused of giving in to the US Because of the spy revelations Did cancel a state visit Lots of tension within Brazilian government and with US Building a Global Southern Coalition Burges Of cially Brazil and Venezuela are not competing for the leadership of South America Both want an integrated South American space But in reality the rhetoric slips and they are in competition Brazil wants to create economic opportunities for itself Make SA a vibrant market for Brazilian products Venezuelan president is rapidly taking his country down a statist pat that will concentrate economic decision in the hands of the state According to a socialist ethos as understood by Chavez A coalition of the smaller regional countries is thus needed by Chavez to de ect pressure that will come from the USAlt Brazil Canada Colombia and Mexico Chavez Bolivarian ideology Antimarket antientrepreneurial antiglobalization Wants to leverage the country39s oil wealth as a device for placing Venezuela in an international leadership position Needs a strong southern bloc Lula Luis lnicio Lula da Silva presidente of Brasil Similar rhetoric to Chavez Would also precipitate the emergence of a southern bloc focused on Brazil Brazil39s strategy recalls the UN Economic Commission for Latin American and the Caribbean39s neostructural school of development economics Venezuela39s Bolivarian Vision Decidedly realist interested vs liberal humanist approach lnterest based Morgenthau type argument Protective ring being constructed around Venezuela to safeguard his Bolivarian revolution Human interest Aid is given because it is quotthe right thing to doquot Chavez often quoted global inequality in order to get foreign aid at the World Social Forum or the UNGA Venezuela is a developing country and a provider of ODA foreign aid BECAUSE OF OIL Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas Alba a region integration scheme comprised of Bolivia Cuba Nicaragua and Venezuela Launched as an alternative to the FTAA In 2005 the Petro Caribe builds up the existing regional oil price supports of the 1980 San Jose Accords committing Venezuela to providing 17 billion dollars in subsidized oil over ten years Puts Venezuelan aid on par with that of the OECD countries such as Australia Belgium Denmark Norway Portugal Spain and Switzerland Venezuela does appear to be providing a burgeoning ODA function in South America in the spending of its surplus oil income But there is some uidity of the humanist side of things Chavez was quick to offer nancial support to Argentina He also used ODA to help out the ALBA partner Cuba Also used ODA to nance the 2006 champions Escola de Samba in the Rio de Janeiro s carnival Brazil39s NeoStructuralism Approach Does not adopt a strong humanist ODA rhetoric like Venezuela Unwilling to engage in sustained expenditure to gain leadership over other countries like Venezuela Some concessions to Agential Paraguay and Uruguay but EXCEPTIONS Brazil is focused on creating conditions bene cial for domestic actors that might also be attractive to key constituencies in partner countries Where neoliberalism sees the need for sudden shock treatment to deal with speci c economic disequilibria neoserialism opts for measured reforms that not only simultaneously address multiple disequilibria But also continually adjust to cope with disruptions caused by the reforms Neostructuralist stale is not charged with bringing about results but with clearing barriers to private sector activities in the selected areas Ex Mercosur where external tariff is 35 combined with currency parity to position the expanded internal market as a platform for gaining the competitiveness needed for global insertion Problem was that Argentina wasn t looking for global presence just that whiten the bloc so it was extremely hurt by the devaluation of the Brazilian real The Lula presidency decided to continue the diversi cation agenda started under Color de Mello and entrenched during the Cardoso years 9 Diversi ed the economy placed Brazilian interests over Argentinian Decisions about what to purchase and on what terms were left entirely to the commercial logic of the Brazilian companies Brazil began to seriously engage other Southern countries through the 620 and the WTO Venezuela is there but a quiet participant 620 had Brazilian diplomats strengthening relation with the two major coalition39s partners India and South Africa 9 BrasillndiaSouth Africa Dialogue Forum IBSA o Talked about reform of the UN Security council and then sustainable development health care and the challenges of globalization 0 Not the same rhetorical bite as ALBA Successes and Shortcomings Brazil wasn39t able to get support in the UN to reform the Security Council Brazil39s attempt to become DirectorGeneral of the WTO failed And undercutting the Uruguay candidate hurt their political credibility in the South By contrast Venezuelan appeared to go from strength to strength Lure of oil Territorial dispute with Guyana over the Essequibo region was set aside by presidentjagged Petro Caribe membership countered put their support behind Venezuelan in the Security Council race petro Caribe countries will support Venezuela for oil but not enough to risk relations with the US Conclusion Chavez39s overtures of leftist solidarity were initially accepted by Lula as being consonant with the regional foreign policy leadership agenda being pursued by BrazH May Day 2006 Bolivian president Eva Morales with support from Chavez nationalized his country s natural gas industry and ordered the military to occupy production cities owned by Brazilian state oil company PETRONAS 9 Brazil was angered by Chavez39s role Seeking Protection Brazil39s Trade Policy Imported Chinese cars have suddenly become prominently visible on Brazil39s roads Has alarmed president Dilemma Youssef39s government 35 tax increase on cars with less than 65 of local content Act of protectionism Violates WTO Trade with China has increased 27 fold since 2002 Although Brazil enjoys a large trade surplus with China most of its exports are of commodities Big de ciencies n manufacturers Brazil39s manufactures have been hobbled by astern currency high interest rates high taxes poor infrastructure and a poorly educated workforce The industrial policy also features an experimental cut in the payroll tax for footwear textile furniture and software rms But new policy is to try to boost competiveness more generally by promoting innovation higher education and training quotBut today we can39t accept China as a fair playerquot China is the largest single foreign investor in Brazil Chinese rms are still starting to build manufacturing rms in Brazil Industry wants to see fewer taxes cheaper energy less bureaucracy and better transport networks Trade across LA is growing with China but at the expense of intraregional trade Brazil39s Long Shadow Vexes Some Neighbors Brazilian endeavors are being met with wariness in several countries Ex protests by Bolivia Ex Brazil39s proposal to build a road throe Guyana s jungles is stalled because of fears that Brazil coo overwhelm its small neighbor with migration and Trae Argentina Of scal suspended a large project by a Brazilian mining company Accusing it of not hiring enough locals Ecuador Tension over a hydroelectric plant Bolivia Financed by Brazil39s national development bank Plan to build a road through Bolivian ingenious territory Provoked a slowburning revolt Hundreds of indigenous protesters Calling the president Eva Morales a minion of Brazil China is also expanding rapidly in Latin America But Brazil is the region39s largest nation 200 million people Brazilians migrate Mostly to Paraguay Buying up land for agriculture Praised for helping Paraguayan economy Demonized for controlling large tracts of land at time leading land activist to burn Brazilian ags Brazil relies on foreign aid now and deep pockets of its central bank America got kicked out of Bolivia Brazil came in The road would be important for cocoa growers in Bolivia Brazilian Tapped to Lead WTO Steer Stalled Talks Brazil39s Roberto Azevedo To be next director general Worried about WTO losing signi cance Europe and the US struck out on their own DOHA talks had stalled for 12 years Azevedo is known for pushing Brazil39s agenda without upsetting neighbors To replace Pascal Limy The WTO is a place for resolving trade disputes Is also supposed to advance a broad global trade agenda that liberalizes the ow of goods US WTO ambassador Michael Punker US wants quickly developing countries China Brazil and India to open its markets more to other developing states WE and Europe want a narrow agreement that will focus on easing the movement of good throughout the world


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