Week 10 PS205 Prof. Skalnes
Week 10 PS205 Prof. Skalnes PS205, CRN 26418
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This 11 page Class Notes was uploaded by Kathryn Sternberger on Sunday March 15, 2015. The Class Notes belongs to PS205, CRN 26418 at University of Oregon taught by Lars Skalnes in Winter2015. Since its upload, it has received 118 views. For similar materials see Inro. to International Relations in Political Science at University of Oregon.
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Date Created: 03/15/15
Week 10 P5205 Lecture Notes 392015 Review of liberals While liberals ignore distributional issues that is the main focus for realists Realism and international trade Free trade may bene t both parties but this is irrelevant need to look at relative gains Problem one state may use its disproportionate gains to destroy the other Who bene ts more is important Relative gains and security considerations drive international economic relations With this approach politics is driving economics then no separation Trade and the struggle over Asia Singapore s prime minister Lee Hsien Loong in April 2013 in a meeting with US business leaders I Issues have been largely a secret I Main issue in congress Obama wants fast track authority trade promotion authority which would give Obama the authority to conclude these agreements usually for a speci c period of time In order to conclude the TPP treaty he needs this authority Congress has to approve or deny within 60 days cannot amend it in any way if they don t act in that time period it goes in to play In Asia trade is strategy A more active trade agenda will bene t the US economically and strategically The US is pushing the TransPaci c Partnership TPP to counter China s economic in uence in china I Not about economics but about politics about countering China s rise I Part of a national security strategy on the part of the US I China and US we can explain their actions in realist terms I More problematic explaining the other countries in realist terms the reason we need the TPP is because we believe their politics will be heavily in uenced by economic relations with US and China I It may be that smaller nations behave differently than great powers Hegemony The hegemonic power organizes the international economy to advance its own economic and political interests In the absence of hegemony the international economy would fragment into autarkic when you don t interact with the rest of the world economies or regional blocs I When you typically trade with other states in your immediate region but that does not interact or trade with the rest of the world Constant anarchy power how do we explain variation Distribution of power Week 10 P5205 Lecture Notes Hegemonic Stability Theory Without a hegemon there is no one to look after the interests of the world economy as a whole Only in a hegemony does selfinterest and the needs of the world economy as a whole overlap The hegemon creates and maintains economic institutions that bene t countries in general and not just a few countries Hegemony international economic stability Power Dispersion protectionism and monetary instability The Logic Underlying HST Theory rests on the notion that the goods hegemons supply are public goods ie nonrival and nonexcludable Problem of collective action freeriding and underprovision market failure I Domestic solution government intervention I What do we do in international arena I We need a hegemonic power who holds the stability of the world economy is in their self interest The hegemon has a private incentive selfinterest to provide some level of the public good to benefit all The rest of the world can free ride on the efforts of the hegemonic power The Goods Hegemons Provide Security for global trade British navy A market for other countries exports I Not a public good you can exclude countries A dominancy currency for settling transactions American dollar I Reduce transaction costs Global financing I Access to the hegemons capital markets I International lender of last result gt In the domestic economy the Federal Reserve central bank gt It puts more money in to circulation the bailouts 800 million to save banks gt In the international system the hegemonic power does something similar It would have to print money in case of economic crisis PAX Britannica 18501914 Britain is the hegemonic power Interacts in unilateral trade liberalizations without any reciprocation or trade treaties particularly on ag goods The Bank of England ran the gold standard in cooperation with other central banks International transactions were settled in pounds sterling created a stable framework for trade and commerce Week 10 P5205 Lecture Notes Freedom of the seas the navy lnterwar Period Britain willing but unable to run international economy the US able but unwilling Beggarthyneighbor policies I 1930 Smoot Hawley Tariff tariff retaliations I US most protectionist tariffs ever well second maybe I Competitive devaluations If the US is the hegemon such policies are hard to explain What would we have to argue for Hegemonic Stability theory to work for the 1930 s I That there isn t a hegemonic power neither Britain or the US PaX Americana 1945 The US is the hegemonic power Power may be necessary for stability but it is not sufficient I US behaves completely different before and after the war US before and after WWII I What changed was the motivation not the power I How the US assessed what it s interests were Why did the motivation change I The New Deal coalition Labor was important wall street as well favored free trade I National security considerations Making the switch to economic development Modernization Theory 1 A liberal theory of development I Emphasis on free markets and democracy Development as emulation of the West I A movement from traditional to modern societies in which it is necessary to discard traditional forms of association I Meant adopting democratic political system and an economy based on the free market I Argument is that developed countries are developed because they adopted these things Poor countries must do what the west did Have to get rid of old institutions and adopt free markets and democracy gt Development requires that countries change internally Modernization Theory 11 Trade is the engine of economic growth Trade is helped by foreign aid and investment The tighter the economic links between the North rich and South poor the faster the South will develop and become more like the North Week 10 P5205 Lecture Notes The Emergence of Alternatives Problem for modernization theory gap between rich and poor countries continued to grow Maybe authoritarian government was more conducive to development than democratic government I The Soviet Union and the communist east as a model I Strategy that is the complete opposite than the one recommended by modernization theory Most in uential attack on the claim came from the dependency school Dependency theory The world economy is an integrated system I Consists of a core of rich states that dominates the system and a periphery of subordinate economies poor states I Also semi periphery don t fit in either category A relationship is characterized by asymmetrical dependence I Periphery is dependent on the core From formal to informal control I This emerged from colonialism from colonial masters of the peripheral elites they act on behalf of the rich countries who have been coopted by the industrialized nations I Colonialism is basically gone by the 1930 s but that doesn t really matter I Colonialism was replaced with informal control Emulation will not work The environment facing the less developed countries LDC s is fundamentally different I Some states have already developed I England and France developed as independent states with a high level of control over domestic economies I LDC s face a world in which there are already countries that have developed politically militarily and economically more powerful than themselves I There are lots of very powerful actors out there that are much more powerful than they are they don t have complete internal control Maj or Environmental Differences Existence of an international division of labor I A highly integrated global economy in which countries tend to specialize with respect to production I LDC s produce raw materials and agricultural goods I Industrialized world produces manufactured goods The existence of international economic institutions that LDC s cannot ignore I Ways in which core countries maintain control in these countries Week 10 P5205 Lecture Notes Powerful multinational corporations MNC s How do you develop then Is it possible I Maybe I Not by following the strategies of the rich countries Integration and underdevelopment Because the environment differs following the development strategies of the industrialized world has a different outcome Not development but the development of underdevelopment The core countries got rich by exploiting the periphery I Continued exploitation widens the gap between core and periphery By trading with the core the periphery remains embedded in a colonial economic structure in which economic surplus is transferred to the core Principal mechanism by which surplus is transferred profit repatriation by the MNC s Multinational Corporation I Profits are taken out of the country and to the core How to develop Development requires an end to economic interaction with the core Sources of underdevelopment are not internal to the countries of the periphery but external integration in a capitalist world economy Some internal changes are necessary in the countries on the periphery I Get rid of the present elites who serve the interests of the industrialized world I But the presence of these elites is itself a result of this division of labor exploitation and control Dependency 11 Velasco the milder version of dependency theory Both core and periphery will grow but core will grow faster Price of primary commodities tend to fall relative to the price of manufactures as countries grow richer Solution importsubstitution industrialization to lessen dependence on the core I Lessen dependence on the core I Switch to producing manufactured goods for the domestic market I Be able to grow much faster as a result I This isn t going to work for very small countries because the market is just too small not able to reach economies of scale As people get richer they spend less of their income on food and more of it on other things The same goes for countries As we grow richer the demand for raw goods are going to fall relative to manufactured goods Price of raw goods will fall and manufactured goods will rise 9 This doesn t appear to be true by the way Dependency Theory and the East Asian NIC s Week 10 P5205 Lecture Notes Problem if integration leads to exploitation and the siphoning off of economic surplus how can we explain their development very high rates of economic growth How do we explain this through dependency theory I Periphery growing faster than the core I The gap is not increasing over time it is closing The countries that became the most integrated into the world economy were the ones that developed the fastest I When they became integrated was when they began to grow rapidly Have to deemphasize or abandon this notion that surplus must transfer from periphery to center I Different domestic politics in these countries than in countries that have not developed Liberalism modernization approach and the East Asian NIC s Development is consistewont with the liberal view I Integration into the world economy through exportled strategy of development emphasis of trade on economic growth Problem integration combined with state intervention and industrial policy in successful developing countries cf China I Heavy government intervention I Democracy doesn t appear to be a key factor Rodrik Today s developed countries grew behind protective barriers cf the US I Integration is the effect not the cause economic development I We become integrated once we reach a certain level of income only then do we open up to the rest of the world 31115 Liberal Responses to Criticisms Integration brought East Asia s prices closer to international prices than was true in other developing areas 0 By exporting for the world market they are forced to make prices based on world market price 0 World price is the basis for allocation of resources 0 This is disputed If so industrial policy including protection and subsidies would be much less important Industrial policy has not worked elsewhere Southeast Asia Why is it that some countries can survive government intervention 0 That is entirely unclear Realism and the East Asian NIC s Typically you would not expect weak states to develop Week 10 P5205 Lecture Notes The baseline expectation is that the weak will not develop so we must explain how the weak have developed No coincidence that theses states were important to the US for security reasons States that developed Japan South Korea Taiwan were on the perimeter of the Communist world 0 Development proved that capitalism was superior to communism Foreign aid and access to the US domestic market promoted development What is the strategy of Japan South Korea and Taiwan 0 Export focused market 0 For this to work markets must be open to them Environmental Protection and Resource Use Environmental protection generally a public good nonrivalrous nonexcludable 0 Thus vulnerable to the collective action problem freeriding and underprovision The tragedy of the commons common goocD rivalrous nonexcludable 0 Problem of congestion and overuse I Especially deep sea sheries I Endangered species from over shing I How do we solve this problem Find a way to privatize assign property rights It is not possible but then they would have an incentive to manage the area in a sustainable way What is actually happening we try to manage and cap these activities for sustainability those arrangements are vulnerable to cheating 0 My consumption of this good grazing rights shing in world oceans 0 So consumption is rivalrous but it is also nonexcludable Different international Responses Ozone layer deletion o lntemational cooperation to limit emissions of chlofuorocarbons so far has been a success Global Warming Ozone Layer Depletion Ozone layer absorbs and re ects ultraviolent UV radiation UV radiation causes skin cancers and weakesn the immune system A primary threat to the ozone layers was CFC aerosols lntemational Reaction In 1997 US unilaterally banned CFC aerosols 1987 Montreal Protocol phaseout the use of CFCs and prohibit imports of goods containing CFCs Week 10 P5205 Lecture Notes Did not originally cover developing countries which were allowed to increase their use undermining the efforts of the other nations Eventually China joined to phase these products out On paper this appeared to be a success Countries if what they said they were doing If we keep going we will restore the ozone to what it was in 1980 Is Global Warming Real There is an increase in the Earth s total heat content overtime Over time the amount of heat retained is increasing meaning there is global warming Now we need to know why we are retaining more heat over time What s the Mechanism Greenhouse gases keeps energy in the atmosphere 0 C02 CH4 methane water vapor nitrous oxide and ozone are all green house gases 0 Comprise about 1 of the atmosphere None contribute to the issue as much as C02 Increase in C02 overtime More and more C02 is in the atmosphere Increasing green house gases particularly C02 Methane could be a very important gas in the future could be a worse gas than C02 If Tiga Caps melt then it will release massive amounts of greenhouse gas Is Global Warming Caused by Humans Analysis of types of carbon isotopes in the air show that the rise in C02 levels are due to the burning of fossil fuels 2007 UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change probability that it is humancaused more than 90 It is caused by humans because 90 of scientists tells me that is the case It is caused by burning fossil fuels Projections in to the future what will happen with carbon emissions and who will be using the carbon emissions 0 There will be a doubling of output 0 The US and China 0 Without getting the US and China to come to some agreement 0 If those two countries could reach an agreement others would follow suit Response to Global Warming 1997 Kyoto Protocol emissions to be reduced by at least 5 below 1990 levels by 2010 in developed countires o No limits on developing countries Week 10 P5205 Lecture Notes 0 Used the argument that they did not cause the problem and the developed countries ought to x it US signed in Novermeber 1997 but Clintion administration never submitted it to the Senate 0 1997 Byrd Hagel Resolution made clear that Senate would not ratify In March 2001 President Bush declared that US would not ratify but it was clear long before then that it wouldn t be rati ed One reason we wouldn t do it o The Chinese weren t going to be involved 0 Economic costs were too high Factors that Facilitate Cooperation Scienti c consensus o If scientists can agree that might make a difference Iteration and linkage Privileged groups Institutions How come we have seen cooperation on some issues and not others Scienti c Consensus Uncertainty in the scienti c community impedes in cooperation Clear consensus in case of ozone depletion consensus only recently emerging in case of climate change Scienti c disagreement allows opponents to manipulate political process for their own bene t Global warming consensus is more recent There is more consensus on ozone depletion than on global warming Most scientists agree global warming is real and human caused Privileged groups Remember hegemonic stability theory 0 The hegemon is a privileged group 0 They are so big that promoting stability is worth it to take on the costs alone The larger the country the larger the absolute bene t of public goods Environmental degradation may also be concentrated territorially Large size or concentrated effects creates situations where the absolute bene ts to one country or a small number of countries may exceed the absolute costs of providing the public good 0 Maybe what we need is not an international agreement but an agreement between the US and China Iteration and Linkage Iteration typically facilitates cooperation o Tit for tat Week 10 P5205 Lecture Notes Linkage can also facilitate cooperation o By linking issues actors raise costs of defection to others Institutions Institutions facilitate cooperation by providing information about the intentions and actions of others 0 Set standards of behavior what counts as defections o Facilitate monitoring and enforcement detect cheating 0 Provide a forum for resolving disputes mediation Why Cooperation on Ozone Depletion Scienti c evidence is convincing no disagreement on the cause of the problem Development of Chemical alternatives relatively cheap alternative Large immediate costs of inaction Extreme concentrating in production and consumption of CFCs 0 US company produced most of world s CFC 0 Once they had an alternative they were willing to support the agreement Complete ban was relatively easy to monitor and enforce Why defection in global warming High uncertainty about the effects of global warming at least in the beginning 0 Uncertainty about what the effects of global warming will be 0 Global warming is foreseen to benefit some areas High immediate costs and diffuse and distant future gains No linkage strategy by Europe 0 Europeans have successfully reduced carbon emissions unilaterally much more than any other region Disagreement over who should pay 0 Between developed and developing countries 0 Very difficult to do anything about carbon emissions without participation of developing countries namely China and India Kyoto Protocol no mechanism exists to make a country comply with its commitment or to punish it when it fails to meet it Institutions simply re ect the inability or ability of great powers to reach an agreement consistent with a realist view of institutions tools by which the powerful fulfill their agenda Once created these institutions can sustain a life of their own can help us sustain cooperation over time Questions about the final exam There are 8 study questions Why would states adopt policies of free trade 0 Liberal approach to international global economy free trade is good for everybody Countries that participate in free trade are generally able to reach a higher level of economic wealth Week 10 P5205 Lecture Notes 0 How would a realist explain policies free trade relative gains matter you have to make sure if you are trading you must make sure you are bene ting more 0 Sometimes some countries adopt free trade how would realist explain this I Power is going to matter I Countries like US may adopt free trade because they think they will gain relatively more than others I Other countries are coerced through carrots and stick in to involvement in free trade They can be forced in to free trade Small countries might join even if not coerced may be better than the alternative Even if you lose relatively you may still bene t in an absolute sense On 3 can the explanations also explain the origins of the cold war 0 Probably several ways of responding to this question 0 May or may not be too dif cult of a question 0 Let s take realism amp the origins of the cold war I Power transition theory to explain the origins of the cold war can we do it Can argue no this theory doesn t explain the origin of the war The 1940 s are like the 1980 s in that the Soviets are a challenger that hasn t yet caught up to the US Remember the war is not a war strictly speaking In 1940 s the Soviets had hopes of catching up in the 50 s they believed they likely would catch up In 1980 s it is clear that they are not going to catch up So they abandon the kind of challenges that stop short of war You could also argue yes it can explain this
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