JSIS 202 Week 9 Notes
JSIS 202 Week 9 Notes JSIS 202
Popular in Cultural Interactions in an Interdependent World
Popular in Jackson School of International Studies
This 4 page Class Notes was uploaded by Rachel Pollard on Friday May 27, 2016. The Class Notes belongs to JSIS 202 at University of Washington taught by Professor James Wellman in Spring 2016. Since its upload, it has received 8 views. For similar materials see Cultural Interactions in an Interdependent World in Jackson School of International Studies at University of Washington.
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Date Created: 05/27/16
Climate Change and Global Energy Monday, May 23, 2016 11:14 AM Energy Reality & Climate Change: The Road Ahead - Scott L. Montgomery (Affiliate Faculty) • Must globally control emissions • Map of human footprint versus map of electricity at night • Shift in the axis • The future of global energy sits in the developing world, the West no longer controls energy for humanity (East Asia) • OECD: the consumption of wealthy nations will no longer climb • China is going to peak at it's consumption, because its population is going to level out • India's population will surpass that of China in the next fifteen years, and continue to increase its consumption • The West will not control • So many developing countries • Beginning of the digital era • China and coal - a massive challenge • China o Domestic resources o Minimize dependence on other countries o Coal is abundant and cheap • Three views of China's future o China remains changed to coal, due to this energy security • Coal remains dominant, the center • Everything grows around coal o China will turn to wind, solar and hydro power • Essentially no nuclear power increase • Coal will eventually disappear o Coal peaks at 2020, then declines, but does not go away • Natural gas increases • Nuclear energy increases • Hydro, solar and wind increase • Everything grows • Coal remains important but not at the center • Continued modernization, continued use of non -renewable fuels • All of these ideas about China are in play • Energy Security: What choices can/should/must be made? • Cumulative Plug-In Vehicle Sales in the United States is greatly increasing Global Warming: Science and Strategies Wednesday, May 25, 2016 11:30 AM Guest Lecturer: Thomas Ackerman Why is climate changing? • Increasing GHG Concentration • The greenhouse effect keeps the surface temperature at the comf ortable level it is How do we know the models work? • Continual comparison of more complex models with previous versions • Comparison with observed climatology • Comparison among different models Simulating the 21st Century • Decide on boundary conditions o Changes in CO2 concentration with time • Run different models • Differences driven by differences in model climate sensitivity (result of different model phy ics) When CO2 increases, the Artic warms up the fastest Additional Issues • Sea level rise o Warmer world = warmer ocean = thermal expansion = higher sea level (6 feet by the end of the century) o Melting land ice = sea level rise (uncertain; about 15 feet of sea level rise available in Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets) • Ocean acidification o CO2 in atmosphere and o cean mixed layer (upper 200-300 feet) in chemical equilibrium o More CO2 in the atmosphere = more CO2 dissolved in ocean o Dissolved CO2 - increase in carbonic acid = decrease in ocean pH (more acid ocean) Streamflow Impacts • Higher winter streamflow's • Earlier and lower peak runoff (mid/high basins) • Lower late spring streamflow • Lower, warmer summer streamflow Mitigation activities • Focus on reducing emissions of greenhouse gases o Renewable fuels o Energy efficiency o Conversion to electric transport and mass transpo rt o Nuclear power o Carbon capture and storage o Fuel switching Adaptation activities • Focus on developing the capacity to manage the change that occurs o Increased system resiliency o Insurance o Seawall protection of coastal areas o Flood control measures o Water storage (dams, etc.) o Relocation of people • Coastal areas • Low level islands o Modified agricultural crops • Mitigation and adaptation strategies operate on three levels: o Person: your own actions o Local/regional: actions taken by local and regional governments (build and operate a mass transit system subsidized by taxes) o Federal: nation-wide policies (federal regulation and support of mass transit options such as passenger trains and electric vehicles) • All three levels must be engaged • COP-21 Paris, December 2015 Modernity and its Contradictions Friday, May 27, 2016 11:29 AM Biases • Confirmation Bias o Cherry pick evidence • Bias Assimilation o Modify data and squeeze it into existing conclusions • Availability bias o Make up mind based on data most readily available • Don't control me… the government lies, and it les o Climate change is made up by the government to control me o Science becomes infected with social meanings Marshall - We are our social interactions • Marshall used to undercut or support climate change: • Why: o Social groups shape/ determine our Homo credens vs. Home negator • Credens: o Convinced. Most likely to be middle -aged, college-educated liberal Democrats. Women are more likely to be believers, which is consistent with observation that women Marshall 2- Wicked Problem • Problems that get us to do something, contain a clear, visible, and identifiable enemy - and climate change isn't it • Without "salience" or " social cues" we simply don’t notice it. • Because it is out there ,and long term, the signals sent to the emotional part of our brain are too ambiguous • "Demonizing the corporate world gets us nowhere" Look how much it has given us! • Frank Lutz: Tell a story "Climate change isn't the elephant in the room Terror Management Theory Ernst Becker - Denial of Death • When we receive reminders of our death - climate change acts as a proxy for death we rationalize the threat. • Like smokers • Becker: Typically in respons e: we invest in our social group and its achievement - immortality project • Many who work on climate change deal with much grief - thus, mourning as a way to positive move forward. Dilemma - Connecting Head (cognitive -head) with Heart (emotion -motivation) Collins • Trace patterns and motivations for interaction rituals • Humans are Emotional Energy seekers o Similar to Durkheim's collective effervescence o Socially derived a feeling of confidence, courage to take action, boldness in taking initiative. • Goal of sociality - experience and gain EE Rational Choice • Traditional rational choice model o Is inadequate - are humans just bad "calculators" o Cognitive science: rationalization of choices and preferences always comes second • Why do humans value certain things? • Deepest level of value is seated in the brainstem and limbic system - emotional Collins - Interaction Ritual Chains • Four processual ingredients: o Bodily assembly of participants o Barriers excluding outsiders o Mutual focus of attention o Shared emotional mood • Four ritual outcomes: o Emotional energy o Group solidarity and belonging o Standards of morality o Symbols of membership • Outcomes rise and fall with the success of the combined effect of ingredients Problems with Secular Science Community on Climate Change • How do you solve these problems • Maybe religion has a way o Joel Hunter o Connecting heart and head o Connecting faith and facts o Connecting hope with direct action o Connecting the rich to the poor o Fulfilling the promise to the Creator with reminder of judgment - mixing the need to repent / with promise of forgiveness, and with hope of new behavior
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