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Informatics 43 Week 10

by: Apurva

Informatics 43 Week 10 IN4MATX

GPA 3.9

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Moores Law
Class Notes
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This 37 page Class Notes was uploaded by Apurva on Tuesday June 7, 2016. The Class Notes belongs to IN4MATX at University of California - Irvine taught by NAVARRO, E. in Fall 2015. Since its upload, it has received 10 views.


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Date Created: 06/07/16
Informatics 43 LECTURE 10-1 EMILY NAVARRO Last Time • Software engineeringis hard, and we need software process models to help • Prescribe and describe what we do to develop software • Help us apply rigor to software development • There has been a shift from rigid, heavyweight, document-driven processes to lightweight, agile processes • Software life cyclemodels • Build and fix, Waterfall, Rapid prototyping, Incremental, Spiral, RUP, Open Source, XP, Agile Today’s lecture • Moore’s Law • Project Estimation • “A Day in the Life of a Software Engineer” Today’s lecture • Moore’s Law • Project Estimation • “A Day in the Life of a Software Engineer” Moore’s Law The number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years. Intel  P4004  from  1969   Intel  Core  i7  from  2010 2,300  transistors,            731,000,000  transistors, 108  kHz  clock  speed 3.06  GHz  clock  speed   Moore’s Law Electronics 19 April 1965 Moore’s Original Data Gordon Moore Electronics 19 April 1965 Moore’s Law to 2000 Moore’s Law through 2010 Motorola Intel Moore’s Law with MS OS Moore’s Law in the Future? Rodent Brain Single Molecule Transistor Moore’s Law • Has held true for almost 50 years • Is so “true” that it guides the semiconductor industry in long -term planning • May have reached its last stages with chips shrinking to the atomiclevel • But Intel claims they will continue to follow Moore’s Law (recently extending the interval to 2.5 years) Is Moore’s Law Dead? “[T]ransistors can be shrunk further,but they are now getting more expensive.And with the rise of cloudcomputing,the emphasis on the speed of the processor in desktop and laptop computers is no longer so relevant.The mainunit of analysis is no longer the processor, but the rack of servers or even the data centre.The question is not how many transistors can be squeezedonto a chip, but how many can be fitted economicallyintoa warehouse. Moore's law will come to an end; but it may first make itself irrelevant .” http://www.economis/blogs/economist-explains/2015/0explains-17t Software Application of Moore’s Law: Artificial Intelligence (AI) • Recentrevival of interest in AIwith cloud computing,data centers,and massive amounts of data • Deep machine learning using neural networks • Right now this is all done in massive data centers,but as chips becomesmaller this couldmove to personal machines/devices “Thenext generationof software -intensive systems will be taught instead of programmed.” –Grady Booch AI/Machine Learning Examples • Facebook facial recognition • Skype Translator • Google Now AI/Machine Learning Examples • Financialtrading • Games • Wikipedia edits • TAs? The Limits of Software Engineering • Will software engineers become obsolete? • Will all jobs become obsolete? • Will the world be overtaken by evil robots? Today’s lecture • Moore’s Law • Project Estimation • “A Day in the Life of a Software Engineer” Project Estimation Project factors Estimation Project method estimates Project Estimation Project Project factors Estimation method estimates • Requirements • Effort (person months) • Applicationdomain experience • Duration (calendar months) • Process quality • Cost (dollars) • Project size • KLOC (thousands of lines of • Technology support code) • Working environment • … • … A general estimation formula Units of effort =a + b(size) + ACCUM(factors) a = base cost b = scales the size variable c = allows estimated project size to influencethe effort estimation non -linearly ACCUM= a function,sum or product or ? factors = other influenceson the effort Source: Textbook,p. 275 Specific Estimation Methods • COCOMO • FunctionPoint Estimation • Object-orientedEffort Estimation • Work Breakdown Structure COCOMO (Boehm) 1. Determine project mode (simple, intermediate, difficult) 2. Estimate the size of project (in KLOC or functionpoints) 3. Review 15 factors (cost -drivers), and estimate the impact of each on the project 4. Determine project effortby inserting the estimated values into an effortformula, e.g., 1.12 Effort = [3.0 x (size)] x PROD( f’s) COCOMO Cost Drivers • Product attributes • Personnel attributes • Required software • Analyst capability reliability • Applications experience • Database size • Programmer capability • Product complexity • Virtual machine • Computer attributes experience • Execution time constraint • Programming language experience • Main memory constraint • Virtual machine • Project attributes complexity • Use of modern practice • Computer turnaround time • Use of software tools • Required development schedule Function Point Estimation 1. Determine project complexity (simple, average, complex) 2. Analyze specifications and high-level design to find the number of inputs, outputs, files, etc. 3. Assign a weight to each item from #2 based on project complexity (#1) 4. Plug this into a formula and get the number of Function Points 5. Estimate effort: Effort = (# ofFunctionPoints) / (productivity ofthe team) Object-oriented Effort Estimation 1. Estimate the number of classes in the problem domain 2. Assign weights based on the types of user interfacesinvolved in the solution (simple to complex) 3. Plug this into a formula to get an estimate of the total numberof classes in the final product Effort = (# of classes) x (productivity of team) Work Breakdown Structure 1. Determine required external deliverables of the project 2. Identify and sequence the steps/tasks required to produce each deliverable 3. Estimate effort required for each task 4. Estimate productivity of personnel assigned to each task 5. Calculate the time required for each task 6. Create a project timeline of all tasks/resources (See Dropbox Article in class readings) Difficulties with Effort Estimation • Effort estimation is difficult and requires a lot of experience and intelligence • Effort estimation often requires data that may not exist • Effort estimation often requires some design to bedone • Estimations must always be updated Today’s lecture • Moore’s Law • Project Estimation • “A Day in the Life of a Software Engineer” A Day in the Life of a Software Engineer • • c&index=6&list=PLllx_3tLoo4fd1deqnzvyZrIrJzRdSC 6- “Do Cool Things that Matter” • Attps:// “How to Get Noticed” • E2dMmdewRxE • For further reading: • -from- scratch/ • working-at-an- agency-right-for- you/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&ut m_campaign=Feed%3A+geekwire+%28GeekWire%29 • -09- 25/the-jocks-of-computer-code-do-it-for-the-job-offers Summary • Moore’s Law is a hardware trend that has implications for software • Increasing complexity may change the way we develop software • Project Estimation • Input: project factors • Requirements, complexity, personnel, … • Output: project estimate • Effort, duration, cost, … • Difficult and requires a lot of experience • Software engineering = doing cool things that matter! Reminders/ Announcements • 0.5% extra credit for submitting the EEE Course Evaluation • Homework3B due tonight 11:55pm toEEE • I will not have offihours Tuesday of finals week Next Time • Course wrap-up • Final exam review


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