FDM 330 Chapter 1
FDM 330 Chapter 1 FDM 330
Popular in Fashion Forecasting
Popular in Fashion Design and Merchandising
This 3 page Class Notes was uploaded by Myesha Johnson-Wheeler on Monday September 5, 2016. The Class Notes belongs to FDM 330 at Southern Illinois University Carbondale taught by Dr. Lee in Fall 2016. Since its upload, it has received 4 views. For similar materials see Fashion Forecasting in Fashion Design and Merchandising at Southern Illinois University Carbondale.
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Date Created: 09/05/16
Aug 30,2016 ★ Trend Chasers—Who, What, Where, When, Why, and How ○ Forecasters… ■ –Look for new, the fresh, the innovative ■ –Interpret signals using judgement and creativity ■ –Analyze the whys behind emerging trends ■ –Predict trend movement ● (Popcorn, 1991) ★ Forecasting ○ Chase the future with a butterfly net. ○ Work in trend analysis ■ > publish books to illustrate their forecasters about 18 months ahead of the season. ○ Pluck emerging trends out of public info. by becoming sensitive to directional signals that others miss. ○ Vary in the methods they use, but all are looking for an apparatus that helps them predict mood, behavior, and buying habit of the consumer ○ Forecasting is not magic ○ A creative process that can be understood, practice, and applied by anyone who has been introduced to the tools. ○ Project past trends into the future ○ Executives use forecasting as input for planning. ○ Marketing use short and long term forecasts. ○ Product developers, merchandisers, and production managers use _______ forecasts of color, textiles, and style direction ○ Visualization helps forecasters understand communicate the movement of fashion ■ 1. Fashion Curves ■ 2. Pendulum Swing ■ 3. Fashion Cycle ★ Visualization and Forecasting ○ Visualization as a forecasting tool ○ Pendulum Swing ■ Periodic movement of fashion between extremes ○ Fashion Cycle =Fixed and regular firming ○ Long wave phenomenon ■ Any entity with movement that rises and falls with variation in duration and magnitude, velocity, and momentum across time ★ Steps in Developing a Forecast ○ Step 1: Basic facts about past trends? ○ Step 2: Causes of change in the past? ○ Step 3: Difference between forecasts and (actual) behavior? ○ Step 4: Factors likely to affect trends in the future? ○ Step 5: Apply forecasting tools and techniques ○ Step 6: Follow the forecast for significant deviations from expectations ○ Step 7: Revise the forecast when necessary ○ Forecasts should identify the following about trends and themes ■ Source of inspiration or information ■ Pattern of change ■ Direction of Change ■ Tempo of change ○ The most valuable currencies in today’s climate are... ■ Information ■ Learning ○ Forecasting translates information into a form that allows learning to take place ★ Forecasting Specialties ○ Long term forecasting ■ –Five years or more ahead ■ –A way to explore possible futures ■ –To build a shared vision of an organization’s direction and development ○ Short term forecasting ■ –one year ahead ■ –Periodic of the longterm vision ■ –Coordinate the operations of a company within the context of the industry and the marketplace ★ Discovering the Zeitgeist ○ Spirit of the times ■ –Slow fashion seeks an ecoconscious, long term view ■ –Fast fashion takes a disposable approach ○ Fashion is a reflection of the times in which it is created and worn ■ Collective Selection ● –Individuals in large numbers choose among competing styles ● –Those that "click" or connect with the spirit of the times ○ (Blumer, 1969)
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