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FDM 330 Chapter 1

by: Myesha Johnson-Wheeler
Myesha Johnson-Wheeler
GPA 3.2

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About this Document

These notes cover visualization and the steps of forecasting trends short and long term
Fashion Forecasting
Dr. Lee
Class Notes
25 ?




Popular in Fashion Forecasting

Popular in Fashion Design and Merchandising

This 3 page Class Notes was uploaded by Myesha Johnson-Wheeler on Monday September 5, 2016. The Class Notes belongs to FDM 330 at Southern Illinois University Carbondale taught by Dr. Lee in Fall 2016. Since its upload, it has received 4 views. For similar materials see Fashion Forecasting in Fashion Design and Merchandising at Southern Illinois University Carbondale.

Similar to FDM 330 at SIU

Popular in Fashion Design and Merchandising


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Date Created: 09/05/16
Aug 30,2016 ★ Trend Chasers—Who, What, Where, When, Why, and How ○ Forecasters… ■ –Look for new, the fresh, the innovative ■ –Interpret signals using judgement and  creativity ■ –Analyze the whys behind emerging trends ■ –Predict trend movement ● (Popcorn, 1991) ★ Forecasting ○ Chase the future with a butterfly net. ○ Work in trend analysis ■ ­> publish books to illustrate their forecasters  about 18 months ahead of the season. ○ Pluck emerging trends out of public info. by becoming  sensitive to directional signals that others miss. ○ Vary in the methods they use, but all are looking for an  apparatus that helps them predict mood, behavior, and buying habit of the  consumer ○ Forecasting is not magic ○ A creative process that can be understood, practice, and  applied by anyone who has been introduced to the tools. ○ Project past trends into the future ○ Executives use forecasting as input for planning. ○ Marketing use short and long term forecasts. ○ Product developers, merchandisers, and production managers use _______ forecasts of color, textiles, and style direction  ○ Visualization helps forecasters understand communicate the  movement of fashion ■ 1. Fashion Curves ■ 2. Pendulum Swing ■ 3. Fashion Cycle ★ Visualization and Forecasting  ○ Visualization as a forecasting tool ○ Pendulum Swing ■ Periodic movement of fashion between  extremes ○ Fashion Cycle =Fixed and regular firming ○ Long wave phenomenon ■ Any entity with movement that rises and falls  with variation in duration and magnitude, velocity, and momentum  across time ★ Steps in Developing a Forecast ○ Step 1: Basic facts about past trends? ○ Step 2: Causes of change in the past? ○ Step 3: Difference between forecasts and (actual) behavior? ○ Step 4: Factors likely to affect trends in the future? ○ Step 5: Apply forecasting tools and techniques ○ Step 6: Follow the forecast for significant deviations from  expectations ○ Step 7: Revise the forecast when necessary ○ Forecasts should identify the following about trends and  themes ■ Source of inspiration or information ■ Pattern of change ■ Direction of Change ■ Tempo of change ○ The most valuable currencies in today’s climate are... ■ Information ■ Learning ○ Forecasting translates information into a form that allows  learning to take place ★ Forecasting Specialties ○ Long term forecasting ■ –Five years or more ahead ■ –A way to explore possible futures ■ –To build a shared vision of an organization’s  direction and development ○ Short term forecasting ■ –one year ahead ■ –Periodic of the long­term vision ■ –Coordinate the operations of a company  within the context of the industry and the marketplace ★ Discovering the Zeitgeist ○ Spirit of the times ■ –Slow fashion seeks an eco­conscious, long­ term view ■ –Fast fashion takes a disposable approach ○ Fashion is a reflection of the times in which it is created and  worn ■ Collective Selection ● –Individuals in large numbers  choose among competing styles ● –Those that "click" or connect  with the spirit of the times ○ (Blumer, 1969)


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