Week 4 Notes for Global Politics
Week 4 Notes for Global Politics POS 160
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This 4 page Class Notes was uploaded by Abbey Schroeder on Saturday September 17, 2016. The Class Notes belongs to POS 160 at Arizona State University taught by Henry Sivak in Fall 2016. Since its upload, it has received 13 views.
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Date Created: 09/17/16
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita TED talk ● We can predict the future scientifically, and if we can do this, we can engineer it ● Game theory (math) ○ Assumes that people are looking out for what’s good for them ○ People are rationally selfinterested ○ People have values ○ People face limitations ○ Rational selfinterest ○ Who influences problems? Go to them and show how your perspective is in their best interest ■ But need to go down levels in power chain; lots of people influencing ○ Need to know for the model: ■ Who has a stake in the decision? ■ What they SAY that they want? ■ How focused are they to the issue at hand? ■ How much are they persuasive on the matter at hand ? ○ EVERYONE cares about outcome and credit ○ Knowing all this (choices, chances, values, and beliefs) we can know how to successfully negotiate with them ● EX Iran what is Iran going to do about nuclear weapons? What is the future? How will relationships keep? ○ Model makes a graph ■ Stats v. simulation ■ Positivesum outcomes ● How beneficial would it be to not do anything? Liberalism ● Theory of politics that believes strongly in progress ○ Specifically in how we organize power and rights ○ TELEOLOGY the idea that things follow success ○ Believe strongly in institutions ■ Liberal institutionalism ● Not only looking for power ● people are willing to accept positive sum outcomes for everyone rather than max positive sum outcome for one person with negative sum outcomes for everyone else ● Feudalism ○ Power is rooted in a series of location, no real connections (refer to PPT) ● Hobbesian Realism: Field of Forces ○ Connections from bigger sources to smaller ones (refer to PPT) ● Liberal world polity/economy ○ Relations between centers are more equal = everyone specializes in valuable things that are needed amongst everyone ■ In some major groups of centers, forms regimes ● Regime formal/ informal mix of international understanding ○ UNCLOS ○ Environmental policy ● Also have institutions ■ All don’t have coercive power, but power in other domains ● World Society model ○ Premise that all countries aren’t divided by borders, instead united by cultural, religious, expertise ○ Fully developing liberalism arguments of a globalized society (very political but through functional levels) ● Democracy a political model where sovereignty is divided evenly between the government and the people ○ 1991 in Algeria the FIS won a democratically run election, party's platform was to change country into a theocratic regime; military was sent in to stop it because “wasn’t a positive democratic outcome” ● Liberalism Origin ○ First image (human nature) ■ Public Figure/period Richard Cobden ■ Cause of conflict interventions by gov domestically and internationally ■ Determinants of peace Liberty, free trade, prosperity, but also colonialism ○ Second Image (the state) ■ Public Figure/period Woodrow Wilson, Immanuel Kant ■ Cause of conflict Undemocratic nature of int’l politics ■ Determinants of peace National selfdetermination institutions ○ Third Image (Structure of the system) ■ Public Figure/period JA Hobson; Keohane and Nye ■ Cause of conflict BoP system; zerosum reasoning ■ Determinants of peace world governance, powers to mediate and enforce decisions First image: 19th century free trade liberals ● English Political Economists ● Adam Smith and Ricardo ● Ricardo comparative advantage ● Trade and antiprotectionism ○ Taxing other countries goods would instigate war essentially ● Peace through economic hegemony ○ Comparative advantage (econ 101) ■ Specialization is more beneficial to maximize profit ■ Production possibility frontier trade off for producing 2 goods per party ■ If we bind countries together by trade, going to war wouldn’t be beneficial ● Trade is positive sum and can substitute for BoP (balance of power) politics Second Image: The State ● Wilson and Bowman ● Reorganization of Geographical space ○ League of nations ● Improving the state from within, to let it function more effectively externally ○ “Giving democracy to Germany” Weimar Republic ○ We could deal with the sources of conflict ● Minority treaties ● Nansen passports ○ Passports league of nations gave to refugees ● The Council on Foreign Relations ○ Foreign affairs journal: elite mouthpiece talking about foreign affairs (Bowman) ● 14 points Wilson’s Plan (key points) ○ Trade ○ Disarmament ○ PostTsarist Russia ○ End of the FrancoPrussian War ○ Evacuation of old states of the AustroHungarian Empire & new “artificial states” ○ Ottoman Empire (mandates) ○ Association of nations ○ Adjustment of colonial claims Third image: The Sea Bed ● 1954 Hague Convention on Cultural Property ● 1982 & the “common heritage of mankind” ● Nations opposed the regime for deep seabed mining ○ Required transferring mining technology and redistributing mining royalties to less developed member states ● Conflict over the sea bed is more likely given abstention of the US and consequent difficulties in working out a truly global regime Multiple forms of contemporary liberalism: Making a Rechtsstaat (state where man makes law) ● Sociological liberalism ○ Sense of community ■ Social media, technology to easily communicate ○ Travel and deregulation ■ Students studying abroad ○ 3 revolutions ● Interdependence liberalism ○ Trading state and the DoL ○ Modern comparative advantage ○ Spillover theory of cooperation ■ Math is the same universally ○ Complex interdependence ■ International flights have to communicate ● Institutional liberalism ○ Rules, regimes, institutions ■ Mossack Fonseca law firm orchestrating tax evasion ● Shows we live in a liberal world, and need to be more liberal ● The power is in the institutions ■ Nevada and Wyoming have loose regulatory regimes in collecting taxes ○ Fear and negotiation ● Republican liberalism ○ Democratization and (non)conflict ■ Michael Doyle ■ Promoting democracy which is promoting peace ○ 3 conditions of peace European Union ● Started in 1951 to improve comparative advantage in coal and steel industry (making war less likely) ○ Countries GDP grew steadily that were in EU ● Currently contains 28 countries ● Operates often by treaties ● Maastricht treaty ○ Currency (euro) ○ Free up movement work making work better and more humane ● Power mostly in ○ European commission: 28 commissioners ○ European parliament: directly elected by citizens of European countries ■ Smaller countries do better because more proportional votes ○ Council of ministers (EU): ministers from each member state ● Developments ○ Worked by stealth ○ Laterally dealing with tough issues ○ Schengen and Dublin agreements ■ Schengen for citizens of the EU, no more de facto borders, can travel freely ■ Dublin asylum status in EU countries ■ Both really sticky arguments, but JHA (Justice and Home affairs) ● Not a part of the EU, security staff ● Ad hoc, informal way of them meeting and talking about issues ● Became a part of the EU in 2006 ○ Was a way for EU leaders to sidestep the hard issues ● Works by stealth, soaking up different favorable pieces of policy without a lot of clarity without knowing who is doing what