Reason, Passion, & Cognition, Week 4 Notes
Reason, Passion, & Cognition, Week 4 Notes 88-120
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This 3 page Class Notes was uploaded by Monica Chang on Wednesday September 21, 2016. The Class Notes belongs to 88-120 at Carnegie Mellon University taught by Julie Downs in Fall 2016. Since its upload, it has received 18 views. For similar materials see Reason, Passion, and Cognition in Social & Decision Sciences at Carnegie Mellon University.
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Date Created: 09/21/16
LECTURE 7: JUDGEMENT DISTORTIONS Judgment Distortions (heuristics and biases continued): Bias: Confirmation Bias - When we tend to seek support for preconceived notions (we want to confirm) - Ex1. When people want to find out if someone is an extravert, they’ll tend to ask more questions that will confirm they’re an extrovert. When people want to find out if someone is an introvert, they’ll tend to ask more questions that will confirm they’re an introvert. - Ex2. Heuristic: Confirmatory search and evaluation - We look for evidence to confirm as opposed to disconfirm - Confirmatory evidence weighed more heavily during evaluation (biased) Bias: Relying too much on arbitrary numbers - Ex1. When a store says 2 for $4 or 4 for $8, we will be more likely to buy more of the product even if it’s the same price for buying one - Ex2. Each person is given a random number out of 100. People are then asked how many countries there are in Africa. Evidence shows that people anchor, or guess higher or lower based on their number to answer the question. The anchor originates from the a comparative question (i.e. Are there more than ___ countries in Africa)? Heuristic: Anchoring (two kinds of heuristics depending on origin of anchor) - Externally given anchors: o When given an anchor, our retrieval of info is biased o General steps: 1) Test hypothesis to comparative question (confirmation bias) 2) Increase availability of anchor-consistent info (availability heuristic) Ex. Did Gandhi live to age 140? 1. Confirmation bias (no Gandhi did not live past 140) 2. Availability heuristic: availability of anchor- consistent info is greater o Evidence for the above model/steps: 1. Increased availability of anchor-consistent info 2. Making people test a different hypothesis changes available info and ultimately the final answer 3. People should answer the 2 nd question (absolute st equation) faster if 1 question is relevant (comparative question) 4. Reducing time to answer 1 question increases time to answer 2 ndquestion - Self-generated anchors: o Ex1. We are more likely to give a bigger estimate of 8*7*6*5*4*3*2*1, in comparison to 1*2*3*4*5*6*7*8 because we look at the first few numbers, calculate those, and then adjust. o Ex2. What is freezing point of vodka? You know it’s lower than that of water, so you adjust, but not enough o General steps: 1) self-generated anchor 2) consciously adjust for anchor based on its perceived accuracy 3) fail to adjust enough More adjustment = more thinking, so how changing thinking affects level of adjustment: 1. Thinking you are wrong Motor movement (shaking vs. nodding head) 2. Wanting to be right Monetary incentive (more $ vs. less $) 3. Having ability to think better Alcohol consumption (more vs. less) 4. Having more time to think Time pressure (more vs. less) 5. Liking to think Need for Cognition (more vs. less) Bias: Fundamental attribution error - Heavily attributing behavior to dispositions and less to situations - Ex. 3 People are assigned either quizmaster, contestant, or judge. The quizmaster comes up with two challenging questions from their own knowledge and asks the contestant. The contestant tries to answer, and the judge make a numerical rating of the quizmaster’s and contestant’s knowledge. Typically, the quizmaster will be rated to be more knowledgeable since coming up with the challenging questions made them seem more knowledgeable. Heuristic: Anchoring - Focus on anchor, don’t adjust sufficiently for situation Bias: Bias blind spot: - People are more able to see other people are biased, as opposed to themselves - Ex. Typically, when asked if you respond to counter-evidence by strengthening your beliefs, you would probably say very little, but when asked if other people response to counter-evidence by strengthening their beliefs, you would probably say very much. Heuristic (but it is not really considered a heuristic in this case): - We evaluate ourselves with different info Key Ideas: - Judgment distortions o Confirmation bias o Anchoring Bias: overly reliant on arbitrary numbers Two type of anchoring heuristics: For provided anchors (external) For self-generated anchors o Fundamental attribution error o Bias blind spot
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